Broncos-Bills and Divisional Round Picks

The Broncos find themselves as the #1 seed in the AFC, with a 14-3 record and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, hosting their first home playoff game in 10 years. And, who do they get to face in this much anticipated game? The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. The Bills were the last team I wanted to face in this playoff game. I would have taken anyone else in the AFC field. I wanted to avoid the Bills completely. But, with the way the Wild Card games played out, the Bills will be coming to Mile High on Saturday afternoon for the AFC Divisional Playoff Game. There are a lot of emotions and thoughts about this game, so I'm going to list all those and other storylines first before I make my prediction on the game.

1) Josh Allen is the best QB in the NFL, and he can single-handily win the game on his own. We have seen it time after time with him throughout his career. Even if the Broncos play great, he can win the game at the end and put the Bills on his back.

2) The Bills have been so close to getting back to the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era, but either Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow got in their way. Those guys and Lamar Jackson are all not in the playoffs this year. This is the by far the easiest path the Bills have to get to a Super Bowl since Josh Allen took over as the Bills QB in 2018. I just think that sometimes everything lines up for a team on its' way to a championship, and it feels like that has happened to Buffalo this year.

3) Sometimes teams just matchup better with other teams. The Bills might have that in this game. They have a big offensive line and great running game with James Cook. They ran all over Denver last year in the Wild Card game in Buffalo. You can see a scenario where Denver just can't stop the run and the Bills control the game with the running attack. Also, the Bills defense plays a lot of zone and disguises well, which has given Bo Nix problems this season. It just feels like Buffalo matches up really well with Denver, which is a huge cause for concern.

4) When you look at some numbers and advanced stats, a lot of them favor the Bills. All week long, stats like that are coming into focus which paint a picture that the Broncos are just not good enough to hang with the Bills.

5) The Broncos went 14-3 and finished as the #1 seed, and Buffalo went 12-5 and finished as the 6 seed. But, when you look at it, the records and teams are not far apart at all. Buffalo lost out on the 5 seed because of a tie-breaker with Houston, but they had 7 wins by more than one possession, and the Broncos had 3. If you look the Bills had 2 wins over teams with a winning record and the Broncos had 4, but the overall body of work favors the Bills on their wins and losses for the season. The point is that this game could very easily have been in Buffalo with the Bills as the 1 seed and Denver as the wild card. 

6) People will point to the fact that Denver will be at home. This is the first playoff home game in 10 years, and the Broncos crowd will be loud and crazy on Saturday. If you are picking Denver, then you are banking on home-field advantage being the biggest factor. Also, people will point to the altitude, and that can be a factor, but I think that is an overrated element of the game. 

7) Most people are picking the Bills to win the game, so the Broncos-even as the #1 seed, can use that as motivation. All week long they can play up the factor that the Bills are favored IN Denver and no one thinks the Broncos can win. Denver actually seems to play better as the underdog this year as opposed to when they are favored. 

8) The Bills are really banged up going into this game. They are missing key players on defense and are down a bunch of receivers. If the Broncos win, it means that the Bills were just too depleted and the injuries were too much to overcome. That could be a factor in this game in Denver's favor. Plus, the Bills played on Sunday in Jacksonville and have to travel to Denver and play the Broncos on a short week on Saturday. 

9) There is some PTSD with the history of the Saturday afternoon Divisional Playoff Game. In 2012, Denver was 13-3 and #1 seed with Peyton Manning and they hosted the Ravens in Saturday afternoon Divisional Playoff spot. They were big favorites and lost in a heartbreaker in double overtime 38-35 (For Ravens fans: The MIle High Miracle, For Broncos fans: The Rahim Moore Game), so this spot has some really bad, playoff vibes to it.

10) On the flip side, all year long I have compared this Broncos season to the 2005 Broncos. In 2005, the Broncos went 13-3 and got the #2 seed in the playoffs, but because the top two seeds got byes back then, Denver was off and then hosted the Patriots in the Divisional Round. They scheduled that game for the Saturday night timeslot because Tom Brady and Pats were the back-to-back Super Bowl champs and going for a three-peat. Many people picked the Patriots to win the game, but the Jake Plummer led Broncos won 27-13 in a game that was famous for Champ Bailey's 100 yard interception return of Brady that swung the game. So, maybe the Saturday Divisional game does work out in our favor. 

11) I just can't get over the fact that Josh Allen is the best QB on the planet and the Broncos have to try to stop him to win this game. As much as you look at the matchup, I just can't get past the Josh Allen factor. It feels like it is set up for the Bills to win and go to the Super Bowl, and ultimately Josh Allen will carry them there for the first time in his career. I hate to feel this way, but I just don't see the Broncos beating Allen and the Bills on Saturday.

Prediction: Buffalo (+1.5) over DENVER

Final Score: Bills-30 Broncos-16

Final Regular Season Overall Record: 131-128-13

Last Week's Playoff Record: 2-4

Overall Playoff Record: 2-4

Overall Total Record: 133-132-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NFC Divisional Playoff

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks

A Case for the 49ers: They pulled off a big upset with a banged-up team last week when they went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles in the Wild Card game. Kyle Shanahan has done a tremendous job with this team this year, and he gives them a chance to win every game. They might have learned enough in their loss to the Seahawks a few weeks ago, so maybe that gives them an edge this week. A lot of people are doubting them after seeing them lose to Seattle in Week 18, but that makes them dangerous in my opinion.

A Case for the Seahawks: Their defense absolutely shut down the 49ers in the Week 18 matchup in SF. Now, the 49ers will be without TE George Kittle, so that is another advantage for the Seahawks. You have to like their chances at home in front of that crowd on a Saturday night playoff game. They might just have the Niners number and suffocate them once again.

Prediction: San Francisco (+7.5) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks will win a close game and advance to their first NFC Championship Game since 2014.

Final Score: Seahawks-20 49ers-14

AFC Divisional Playoff

(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots

A Case for the Texans: Their defense continues to impress with a dominating 30-6 win over the Steelers in the Wild Card round. We have seen great defenses take over a playoff run before (2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2015 Broncos), and the Texans might be on that kind of run. No one is really talking about them that much too, so they are kind of flying under the radar. 

A Case for the Patriots: They have a really good coach in Mike Vrabel, and you can see how well he had his team prepared last week for the Chargers in the 16-3 win in the Wild Card round. They are at home again in Foxboro, and the stadium will be rocking. Drake Maye might be making the leap this year. Did you see the performance by C.J. Stroud in the Wild Card game against the Steelers? The Patriots have to be thinking they can force him into mistakes as well-especially if NIco Collins doesn't play with a concussion. 

Prediction: Houston (+3) over NEW ENGLAND: Houston, with the help of their dominating defense, go into Foxboro and knock off the Patriots. The Texans franchise advances to their first ever AFC Championship Game.

Final Score: Texas-23 Patriots-20

NFC Divisional Playoff

(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Chicago Bears

A Case for the Rams: They are probably the best team in the NFC at this point. You saw the offensive firepower in the win over the Panthers in the Wild Card round. Even though the Panthers came back to make it close, the Rams were never going to lose that game. I feel the same way here. Even if this is a close game, you have to think that Matt Stafford will find a way to pull it out. I also like Sean McVay in this spot as well. I just think the Rams are on their way to a Super Bowl no matter what.

A Case for the Bears: The Bears have won improbable games all year long, and last week's Wild Card win over the Packers was another moment for this team. Down 21-3 early and 27-16 late, the Bears found a way to win the game. They definitely have that "luck" going for them this year. They always find a way to win these this year, so why not this one against the Rams? It looks like it will be like 5 degrees out in Chicago on Sunday night, so that has to play a factor. This Bears team might just be on one of those miracle runs. 

Prediction: CHICAGO (+3.5) over Rams: This is the first playoff meeting between the Bears and Rams since the 1985 NFC Championship Game. I would like to see the Bears win, and I think they will keep it close, but the Rams pull out a close one and move on to the NFC Championship Game for the third time since 2017. 

Final Score: Rams-24 Bears-22

Wild Card Weekend Picks

Wild Card Weekend has arrived and this is the most wide-open the playoffs have been in a longtime. The AFC features no Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, no Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and no Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The Broncos, Patriots, and Jaguars are the 1,2, and 3 seeds. The NFC features the Seahawks and Bears as the 1 and 2 seeds, with the Rams, 49ers, and Packers all on the road in the first round. There are four road favorites in the six games. Home underdogs are usually dangerous, but there is a case to be made for a lot lower seeds advancing. The Broncos have the bye week, so it is opportunity to sit back and watch it all unfold. 

Last Week's Record: 9-7

Final Regular Season Overall Record: 131-128-13

(Home Team in CAPS)

NFC Wild Card Game

(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Carolina Panthers

A Case for the Rams: They are arguably the best team in the NFC. They are fluky two-point conversion play away from beating Seattle a few weeks ago and having the #1 seed. Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level and will likely win the MVP this year. They get Davante Adams back this week to help their offense even more. They have a huge coaching advantage with Sean McVay. They got beat by the Panthers in Carolina in late November, so I think they can use that loss as a way to adjust and figure out a plan to go take care of business this time.

A Case for the Panthers: No one thinks the 8-9 Panthers are going to win this playoff game, so they can use that as motivation. Maybe they can use the win over the Rams in November as a driving force this week. They are playing with house money considering they are happy just to be in the playoffs and the Rams are Super Bowl contenders and have a lot more at stake. No one in Carolina would be upset if they lost this game in this spot. 

Prediction: Rams (-10) over CAROLINA: The Rams go into Carolina and take care of business over the Panthers and advance to for the second consecutive year.

Final Score: Rams-30 Panters-16

NFC Wild Card Game

(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Chicago Bears

A Case for the Packers: Just a month ago, the Packers were 9-3-1, just beat the Bears in Lambeau, and the favorite in the NFC. They finished with four straight losses and are the #7 seed going into the playoffs. They are still dangerous though. The Packers have been banged up for the last month. They sat Jordan Love in Week 18 to rest for the playoffs. They lost to the Bears a few weeks ago in Chicago in a game that featured a bunch of miraculous plays by the Bears to win it in overtime. The Packers could be dangerous here. I like their chances. Everyone kind of forgot about them these last few weeks, and I think they will play really well over an opponent they know so well. Maybe it is time the Bears' luck runs out.

A Case for the Bears: It has been a dream season for the Bears under first year head coach Ben Johnson. They won the NFC North with a 11-6 record and now get to host a playoff game for the first time since 2018. It feels like Ben Johnson will come up with a great game plan for Caleb Williams to perform well in this game. You know the crowd will be really into it on Saturday night for a rare home playoff game for the Bears. Perhaps the Bears dream season continues.

Prediction: Green Bay (-1) over CHICAGO: The Packers go into Soldier Field and knock off the Bears to advance to the Divisional Round for the first time since 2023.

Final Score: Packers-23 Bears-20

AFC Wild Card Game

(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars

A Case for the Bills: This season has always been about the playoffs for the Bills. Whatever happened in the regular season did not really matter. As long as they got into the playoffs, that is all that mattered. It didn't even matter about the record or the seed. They just needed to get in and make their run. They enter the playoffs as the 6th seed with a 12-5 record. Although they are a slight favorite, a lot of people are picking the Jaguars. You can absolutely see the Bills using that as motivation for this game. The Bills have Josh Allen and James Cook and that is all they need to go into Jacksonville and advance.

A Case for the Jaguars: The Jaguars finished 13-4 and were the hottest team in the AFC the last two months. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career, and a lot of people think the Jags can make a legitimate run to the Super Bowl. I could see that happening-especially if they get by the Bills this week. No one has believed in the Jaguars all year long, and they have used that as motivation this whole season.

Prediction: Buffalo (-1) over JACKSONVILLE: The Bills knock off the Jags in an entertaining game to advance to the Divisional Round for the 6th straight year.

Final Score: Bills-33 Jaguars-25

NFC Wild Card Game

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (3) Philadelphia Eagles

A case for the 49ers: A lot of people are doubting the 49ers after being knocked out as a possible 1 seed last week in their Week 18 loss to Seattle. Now, the Niners have to go the Wild Card route. They can be very dangerous in this spot. Not a lot of people are talking about them even knocking off Philly-let alone making a run in the playoffs. You know Kyle Shanahan will have a good game plan and get them ready for this game. They will play well and you can see them giving the Eagles are really hard time in this matchup. 

A case for the Eagles: They are at home in front of their crowd in the playoffs. That should give them a huge advantage right off the bat. They are the defending Super Bowl champs, so the experience factor is in their corner. They have a good defense and they know how to win some of these close, low-scoring, tough games. 

Prediction: PHILADELPHIA (-4) over San Francisco: The Eagles beat the Niners to advance to the Divisional Round for the third time in four years.

Final Score: Eagles-26 49ers-20

AFC Wild Card Game

(7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots

A case for the Chargers: They have Jim Harbaugh as their coach and Justin Herbert as their QB. That makes them very dangerous in my opinion. Their defense is good as well, and I think they can be a dangerous team heading to Foxboro. They were favored to knock off the Texans last year in the Wild Card game, and they got embarrassed. I think they can get some redemption here. A lot of people are picking the Pats and underestimating the Chargers. I could see the Chargers pulling this off.

A case for the Patriots: They had a great season going 14-3. Mike Vrabel is a really good coach, and he will have them ready to play for this game. Drake Maye might win the MVP and he has been great all year long. I could see him stepping up and putting the Pats on his back and willing them to a win here.

Prediction: Chargers (+4) over NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots win but it is a close one over the Chargers in Foxboro. The Pats advance to the Divisional Round for the first time since 2018

Final Score: Patriots-23 Chargers-20

AFC Wild Card Game

(5) Houston Texans at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers

A Case for the Texans: Their defense has been one of the best in the NFL all year long. You could see them just making Aaron Rodgers' life miserable all game long. They have been one of the best teams in the league since the beginning of October. After an 0-3 start, they went 12-2 from that point to finish 12-5. C.J. Stroud has been good in the playoffs the last two years, so he has plenty of playoff experience. They are simply a better team than the Steelers. 

A Case for the Steelers: The Steelers might have a little magic going after their miraculous win over the Ravens on Sunday night in Week 18 to win the AFC North. They get the advantage of being at home, and the game is on Monday night, so the weather could be a factor. The home crowd will be fired up for the first home playoff game since 2020 and the first one with fans since 2017. Everyone is going to be picking the Texans, and at least one game is always surprising during Wild Card weekend.

Prediction: Houston (-3) over PITTSBURGH: The Texans survive a tough game and advance to the Divisional Round for the third straight year.

Final Score: Texans-23 Steelers-17

Broncos Finish 14-3 and #1 seed in the AFC

 The 2025 Denver Broncos won the AFC West and finished as the #1 seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record after a 19-3 win over the Chargers in Denver in Week 18. I'm pretty sure that many Broncos fans-including myself-are surprised that Denver had that successful of a season. After going 10-7 last year and losing in the Wild Card round to Buffalo, the expectations were definitely higher this year. A lot of the national critics were on high on Denver in the summer. Everywhere you turned, a new national pundit was picking Denver to be a top team in the AFC. That scared me a bit. Usually, when everyone is high on one team all summer, that has the potential to be a flop and that team doesn't meet expectations. The Broncos did not disappoint as the 2025 season got going. After the 1-2 start to the year, they ripped off 11 straight wins and clinched the AFC West crown in Week 17 and then the #1 seed in the AFC in Week 18. It certainly has been a memorable season. There have been a lot of close wins, but style points don't matter in the NFL. The only thing that matters in winning and Denver did their part this season. Now, the Broncos can sit back and relax during the Wild Card round and await their opponent in the Divisional Round. The Broncos will be hosting their first playoff game since the 2015 season. Denver is one of the few remaining crowds and fanbases in which a playoff game feels special and unique. It is remarkable that Denver is #1 seed after what took place the last decade since the Broncos won Super Bowl 50. Just a two years ago at this time,  Sean Payton just finished his first year in Denver with an 8-9 record and the Broncos were about to take a huge dead cap charge for moving on from Russell Wilson. Now, they are sitting here at 14-3, AFC West Champs, and the #1 seed in the AFC. Just incredible turnaround from where this franchise was. I thought Sean Payton was the right move then, and I think it has paid off so far.  I'll have plenty of thoughts on who we will play and how that game will go down, but this week is about enjoying this memorable season, watching the playoffs unfold, and preparing for huge moment coming up. 

Broncos-Chargers and Week 18 Picks

The Broncos are AFC West champions for the first time since 2015. As great as an accomplishment as that is, there is still work to be done in Week 18. The Broncos can clinch the #1 seed in the AFC and a bye with a win over the Chargers. LA will be resting Justin Herbert and some other players for the Wild Card round next week. The Broncos never make it easy, and I would expect a close game throughout. I think Denver will be pushed but ultimately find a way to win the game.

Prediction: Chargers (+12) over DENVER

Final Score: Broncos-24 Chargers-19

Now, onto the picks for Week 18....

Last Week's Record: 8-8-0

Overall Season Record: 122-121-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY

Seattle (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland

Dallas (-3) over GIANTS

MINNESOTA (-9) over Green Bay

HOUSTON (-9) over Indianapolis

New Orleans (+4) over ATLANTA

JACKSONVILLE (-12) over Tennessee

RAMS (-9) over Arizona

CHICAGO (-3) over Detroit

Kansas City (-4) over LAS VEGAS

Miami (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND

BUFFALO (-7) over Jets

PHILADELPHIA (-4) over Washington

PITTSBURGH (+4.5) over Baltimore

Week 17 Picks

 Now, onto the picks for Week 17....

Last Week's Record: 6-8-2

Overall Season Record: 114-113-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Houston (+2) over CHARGERS

GREEN BAY (-4) over Baltimore

CINCINNATI (-7) over Arizona

Jacksonville (-5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

JETS (+14) over New England

New Orleans (-2) over TENNESSEE

Pittsburgh (-3) over CLEVELAND

Seattle (-7) over CAROLINA

Tampa Bay (-5) over MIAMI

LAS VEGAS (+2.5) over Giants

BUFFALO (-1.5) over Philadelphia

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Chicago

Rams (-7.5) over ATLANTA

Broncos-Chiefs and Christmas Day Picks

The Broncos are coming off a loss at home to Jacksonville last week and now stand at 12-3, but they still can still win the AFC West and get #1 seed if they win their last two games. They head to Arrowhead on Christmas night for a game against the Chiefs, who are without Pat Mahomes and backup QB Gardner Minshew. KC is starting Chris Oladukan, and the Broncos have to take advantage of that factor. The Broncos never make it easy, and they have to find a way to just win in KC on a short week.

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (+13) over Denver

Final Score: Broncos-19 Chiefs-16

Dallas (-6) over WASHINGTON

Detroit (-5) over MINNESOTA

Broncos-Jaguars and Week 16 Picks

Last week's 34-26 win over the Packers in Denver was a chance for the Broncos to gain a little more national respect. The win propelled the Broncos to a 12-2 record, and they continue to hold onto the #1 overall seed in the AFC. It was also a chance for Bo Nix to gain some national respect as well. Nix played the best game of his career and threw for 4 TDs. It was such a huge performance on such a big stage for Nix. Now, Denver has to get themselves back up again to take on Jacksonville. The Jags are 10-4 and leading the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence is playing really well as of late. This is going to be a huge test for Denver because of the importance of this game and how well the Jaguars are playing. Denver has won 11 in a row, and I worry they are due for a letdown in this spot.

Prediction: Jacksonville (+3) over DENVER

Final Score: Jaguars-27 Broncos-26

Now, onto the picks for Week 16....

Last Week's Record: 8-8

Overall Season Record: 108-105-11

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

WASHINGTON (+6) over Philadelphia

CHICAGO (-1) over Green Bay

Tampa Bay (-3) over CAROLINA

Buffalo (-10) over CLEVELAND

Chargers (+2.5) over DALLAS

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Jets

Minnesota (-3) over GIANTS

TENNESSEE (+4) over Kansas City

Cincinnati (-3) over MIAMI

ARIZONA (+3) over Atlanta

DETROIT (-7) over Pittsburgh

HOUSTON (-14) over Las Vegas

BALTIMORE (-3) over New England

INDIANAPOLIS (+6) over San Francisco