A Thanksgiving Stuffing in Denver

Hopefully, Denver's 26-6 beatdown of the New York Giants on Thanksgiving night will be what gets the Broncos back on track. The win moves Denver to 7-4 and back into the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Here are a few tidbits from the game before get onto my picks for Thanksgiving week picks.

1) That was an "A" game for Denver. Suffocating and pressuring defense, efficient offensively, solid running game, solid special teams, and fundamentally sound football on both sides. That was exactly how Denver got to 6-0, and that is how they played against the G-Men.

2) Run the ball. Josh McDaniels must have listened to the fans this week because he gave the rock a lot to Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. Denver can run the ball very effectively, but they have become too pass happy the last four weeks. They won't break a lot of big runs, but they can be steady will it and it will work as the game progresses.

3) The Bronco offense is too inconsistent. They can move the ball, but penalties and red zone problems still persist. That game could have been 27-0 at halftime had Denver not committed so many penalties and inconsistent play inside the red zone.

4) Rush the quarterback. The Broncos defense is at its' best when they bring their multiple pressure schemes. They got away from that the last four weeks, but last night they brought a lot of different looks and blitzes. They confused Eli Manning and pressured him throughout. They need to take more chances every week. Elvis Dumervil is a great third down pass rusher. They must get him going early and often for their defense to be successful.

5) The Broncos benefitted from playing this game at home. It was apparent that the Giants weren't ready for this game. The short rest combined with the long flight seemed to give the Giants a disadvantage. I'm not making excuses for New York, but the Broncos got the right team, at the right time, at home on Thanksgiving.

6) Rest up for the stretch. The Broncos now have 11 days to get healthy, rest up, and prepare for the final five games. They head to Arrowhead to face Kansas City on December 6th.

Last Week's Record: 7-6-3

Thanksgiving Record: 2-1

Overall Record: 78-79-6

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

INDY (-3) over Houston: Every time I pick Houston in a big game, they burn me. I'll take my shot with Peyton Manning this week. The Colts will lose a game this year, but not this week.

CINCY (-12) over Cleveland: The Bengals slipped up last week at Oakland. They will rebound nicely with a romp over their rivals.

MINNESOTA (-10) 0ver Chicago: I love rooting against Jay Cutler. I would normally pick the Bears this week, but it is just too much to fun to pass up the chance to root against Cutler. Lovie Smith's days are numbered in Chicago. The Vikings continue to impress every week, and that are such a loaded team. They continue their march towards the first round bye with a whipping on the Bears.

PHILLY (-8) over Washington: I don't love this game, but I think the Eagles are going to win the NFC East, so I'm going to take them here.

Miami (-2) over BUFFALO: The Dolphins are such a well coached and disciplined team, that I actually find myself rooting for them a lot of weeks. They continue their late season surge, and put the Bills to rest in Buffalo.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona: The Cardinals have to lose on the road sooner or later, so why not this week. The Titans are playing very well right now, and Chris Johnson is so much fun to watch. They have something to build upon with the combo of Johnson and a seasoned Vince Young. The Titans won't run the table and go 10-6, but they get to 5-6 this week.

Seattle (-3) over ST.LOUIS: An awful, cheap NFC West matchup this week. I was wrong about Seattle because I thought they were going to be a good this year. They need to really rebuild this team this offseason.

ATLANTA (-10) over Tampa Bay: This is the lock of the week. Even if Michael Turner, doesn't play, Matt Ryan gets it going against that Buc defense. Jim Bates got demoted as the DC of the Bucs this past week. He might be the only DC to get demoted midseason twice. It also happened to him in Denver in 2007.

Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: Jet fans overhyped Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez way too much after three games. Since then, the Jets have come back to reality. The Panthers spoil the Jets Thanksgiving weekend.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville: No one wants to see Jacksonville make the playoffs. The Niners help out the league this week by taking care of the Jags in SF.

SAN DIEGO (-11) over Kansas City: This is one of those games where the Chargers sleepwalk through and win 20-16. I can't go against the Chargers at this point because they are rolling. It is too much to ask the Chiefs to knock off San Diego on the road.

BALTIMORE (-1) over Pittsburgh: Game of the Week on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers have lost their way, and the Ravens are shockingly 5-5. I see the Ravens winning on a close field goal at the end.

New England (+2) over NEW ORLEANS: Another great game on Monday Night Football to finish off the week. I'll take the Pats to outscore the Saints and knock New Orleans off their undefeated perch. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are great in these types of games. They should have beaten the Colts two weeks ago, and this week they finish the job in the Superdome.

Choke City in Denver

I'm just sick and tired of it. Really, I just can't take it anymore. The Denver Broncos have become the equivalent of every choke artist team this decade. For the second year in a row they held a nice 3 game lead in the AFC West, and for the second year in a row they began to collapse and watch the San Diego Chargers rally back and take possession of first place. Last year, Denver held first place from Week 1 all the way to the end of Week 17. This year, the Broncos were leadin the division from Week 2 to Week 11. As I said last week, new coach, new veterans, new philosphy equals the same result. I'm just tired of watching a second rate football organization. The Broncos are chokers, that's just what they are. With the exception of 2005-How long ago was that?- the Broncos always start fast and fade at the end. As other teams play better and adjust, the Broncos play worse and can't adjust to the other teams' adjustments. The Broncos are a mediocre and disappointing franchise right now. Sunday's loss to San Diego 32-3 was so matter of fact, that it felt like a preseason game. Forget about homefield advantage because that is a thing of the past. The Broncos lose big games at home and on the road. At 6-4, Denver's amazing 6-0 start is tarnished. Their cinderella story is reduced to a blip on the NFL radar. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, they are cooked. What will happen the rest of the way? Well, if you can't score in the NFL, you won't win. The Broncos have score 37 points in their last four games. Put it this way, the lowly Browns scored 37 points in Sunday's game at Detroit. Josh McDaniels is supposed to be an offensive genius, but this is one of the worst offenses I've ever witnessed in Denver. They are bad in the red zone, they constantly get killer penalties, they turn it over, and their playcalling has failed them. The offense needs a makeover, and it looks like it won't happen this year. The defense is just as worse. They have officially fallen apart. They can't stop anyone on third down, can't stop the run, and can't create turnovers. Doesn't this sound a lot like last year's defense? The Broncos are done, and all we can do is stand by and watch it. This franchise has fallen on hard times, and we must be resigned to the fact that the Broncos are just another average, middle of the road NFL team. It's hard to swallow, but it is the truth.


THANKSGIVING PICKS:

New York Giants (-7) over DENVER: The G-Men spoil the Broncos' Thanksgiving, and sent the Broncos packing for 2010.

DALLAS (-10) over Oakland

Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT

Week 11 Picks!

CUE NFL FILMS MUSIC

John Facenda's Voice Starts In: "The Autumn leaves have turned completely.... The crisp Fall has given way to a sudden chill in the air....The games become more crucial...Playoff teams begin to make their run....Every game carries a steep importance... The playoffs are around the corner......And only one team will be left standing alone atop the Professional Football World."

If the great John Facenda were still alive, I think that is how he might set up Week 11 in the NFL. The stretch run begins, and this week should start to provide some real answers about who will be playing in the playoffs come January. As usual, I like to try and take a peek at what I think the playoffs will look like. It is amazing how much the seeding, divisional winners, and wild card teams can change week to week. Here is my look at who I think will get in prior to Week 11:

AFC

1-Indy(South)

2-Cincy(North)

3-NE(East)

4-San Diego(West)

5-Pitt(WC)

6-Baltimore(WC)

NFC

1-New Orleans(South)

2-Minnesota(North)

3-Arizona (West)

4-Dallas (East)

5-Atlanta (WC)

6-Philly (WC)

Onto the picks for Week 11.....

Last Week (8-7)

Overall Record (69-72-3)

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami: Huge game for two 4-5 teams. NFL Network lucked out when these two teams won last week. No Ronnie Brown really hurts the Dolphins. I'll take the Panthers at home.

DETROIT (-3) over Cleveland: If Detroit vs. St. Louis was the "Toilet Bowl," what do you call this stinker? I like "The Dust Bowl." It just sounds like a crappy bowl game. How about a cheap sponsor? Let's go with the "Mello Yellow Dust Bowl." I like it, and I like the Lions.

Buffalo (+9) over JACKSONVILLE: This has the classic "Our Coach got fired, so let's play hard for the new guy this week" type of game written all over it. Could Jacksonville actually be a playoff contender? The Jags are a weird team, and I just have a feeling the Bills will keep this one close, and then pull it out with a late field goal.

Pittsburgh (-9) over KANSAS CITY: The Steelers are coming off a loss, and Troy Polamalu may be sidelined with a knee injury this week. His absence really affects the Steelers. Their defense is just different without him. With that said, the Stillers will be angry and have too much for the defenseless Chiefs.

Indianapolis (-1 ) over BALTIMORE: I'm still not impressed with the Ravens, especially after they slept through their win over Cleveland on Monday Night. I don't think the Colts lose this week. Peyton Manning meet Domonique Foxworth and Fabian Washington. Those are the names of the Cornerbacks that Manning will abuse on Sunday.

Atlanta (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS: I can't trust the Giants. I trusted them for four consecutive weeks, and I'm not going to do it this week. Win or lose this week, the Falcons are making the playoffs. Just trust me and mark it down: Atlanta will be the 5 seed in the NFC.

GREEN BAY (-6) over San Francisco: The Packers are getting going. I'm telling you this is going to be hot team in the NFC during the stretch. The Pack take care of business this week over the Niners.

MINNESOTA (-10) over Seattle: The Vikings are rolling, and I have to admit I did not buy into the Vikings this season, but I have been dead wrong. Think of how many great players they have on their team: Favre, Peterson, Hutchinson, McKinnie, Allen, Kevin and Pat Williams, Winfield, Percy Harvin. Jesus Christ, they are loaded! The Vikes pound the 'Hawks at home.

DALLAS (-9) over Washington: The Redskins showed some life last week, but the Cowboys will take care of them this week. This game will be close for awhile, but I see the Cowboys pulling away.

New Orleans (-10) over TAMPA BAY: Everytime I pick against the Bucs, they screw me. If they are an underdog, I have mostly picked the favorite and somehow the Bucs have covered. If I pick them, then they lose and don't cover. I'm just gonna pick the Saints and hope for a blowout. For this game only, I think the Bucs should warm up in their current uniforms, and then change into their "Creamsicle" uniforms before the game starts. The fans would love it. How great would that be?

Arizona (-8) over St. Louis: You can lock the Cardinals in for either the 3 seed or the 4 seed in January. Who is going to want to see Warner, Fitzgerald and company coming into their building in round two?

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over New York Jets: The Jets have faded after their 3-0 start, and the Pats want revenge after their Week 2 loss in the Meadowlands. This has the makings of a classic "Thanks for Coming Down" game. I see the Pats winning big.

Cincy (-9) over OAKLAND: The Bengals are playing so well right now. I just can't see them slipping up in the Black Hole. The Bengals could be on their way to the #2 seed in the AFC. By the way, I just want all of those draft experts to eat crow on Rey Maualuga. He is a run-stuffing force. The Bengals keep it going another week.

Philadelphia (-4) over CHICAGO: I don't think the Bears are dead just yet. I look for Jay Cutler to bounce back after having 11 days to think about his five interception performance against the Niners. I just can't put my finger on Philly. Two weeks ago they looked like a lock to win the NFC East, now at 5-4 they look so shaky to me. It is just so much fun to root against Cutler, so I'm taking the Iggles.

HOUSTON (-4) over Tennessee: Three weeks ago this game looked like a complete dud, but now I'm actually looking forward to it. The Titans have won three in a row to improve to 3-6, and they are officially playing the classic spoiler role. The Texans are in a dogfight, and I think this game will be very close. The Texans pull it out, and begin to make their run for their first ever playoff appearance.

San Diego (-3) over DENVER: I guess you knew where I was going with this one. The Broncos had trouble stopping Phillip Rivers and the passing game in the first matchup, so I expect the same this week. Also, LT was having a solid time, until Norv Turner took the ball out of his hands in the redzone and in the second half. I look for the Chargers to put a whippin on the Broncos. If Kyle Orton starts, then Denver might be in for a half. If Chris Simms starts, this thing is over at the coin toss. Chargers roll and Denver's slide continues.

Final Score: San Diego: 34 Denver: 13

Here We Go Again!

New coach. New philosophy. New players. Same result for the Denver Broncos. The Broncos 27-17 loss to the Washington Redskins was discouraging and disheartening for many reasons on many levels. The main thing is that it reminds us that no matter what changes we went through, and no matter what we did the first six games of the this season, we are in the same predicament we were in just 11 months ago. It really is deja vu all over again. Let's first start with Sunday's game vs. the Redskins, and then we can get to the bigger picture. Here is my take on some of the details of Sunday's loss in D.C. First, if Kyle Orton doesn't get hurt, the Broncos win the game. He directed three scoring drives, and would have been able to put enough points on the board in the second half to secure the win. I know Chris Simms hasn't taken any meaningful snaps since 2006, but he was flat out awful. He didn't even look like an NFL backup quarterback. Second, there is absolutely no excuse to give up a fake field goal for a touchdown. Especially, SINCE THE REDSKINS LINED UP FOR THE FAKE AND THEN CALLED TIMEOUT TO SET IT UP!!!! That was one of the most embarrassing sequences of Broncos football I have ever seen. That can't happen, and it's on the coaching staff for that one. Third, our defense is crumbling and it is nowhere near what it was three or four weeks ago. For the third straight game, the defense got pushed around at the line of scrimmage. The defense got gashed by Ladell Betts. Really? Are you kidding me? Our defense couldn't stop Washington's run game, and they completely controlled the game down the stretch. This is shades of 2006 for our once heralded defensive unit. Finally, the Broncos have lost their confidence and their way. They just don't seem right, and I don't know if they will be able to get their swagger back.

As far as the rest of the season and this week's game, here is why I feel like it is 2008 all over again. Last year, we were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8. Of course, we remember how San Diego got hot and finished 8-8, and how we fell apart in losses to Carolina, Buffalo, and then the disaster in Week 17 at San Diego. Well, this year it is the same exact result, expect that Denver's decline started about a month early, and San Diego actually woke up as earlier in the season. Just like last year when we blew a critical game at home versus a 6-8 Buffalo team, and we had San Diego staring at us the next week. Well, we just blew a critical game at 2-6 Washington, and we have red hot San Diego rolling into Mile High this week. IT'S THE SAME SHIT-DIFFERENT YEAR!!!!! Frankly, I'm tired of it. I don't want to hear that this year is a rebuilding year, and that it is the first year of the Josh McDaniels era, and there are going to be some years like this. I don't want to hear it. When your team starts out 6-0 and beats teams like Dallas, New England, and San Diego (I'm not even counting Cincy), then you should be setting yourself up for a first round bye. Now, Denver is battling SD for the division, and if they are lucky they are fighting for a Wild Card and a 5th or 6th seed. This Bronco team is headed in the wrong direction, and there is nothing we can do about it. Just like 2006, just like 2008, we start fast and can't finish. The Broncos changed the script of the season when they started 6-0. They need to win the division or at least make the wild card comfortably. If they fade again this year, it will be just as worst as last year- I don't care who the coach is or who the quarterback is. On a final note, I am going to change my approach. I said last year the 2008 Broncos drove me to drink an enormous amount during their games. As their season crumbled, I also crumbled into a drunken nightmare. This season was not like that until Sunday's debacle. I drank myself into a stupor watching them blow this game, and I ended up passing out on my couch with my mouth wide open and droll sliding down my cheek. The 2009 Broncos may be collapsing, but I'm not going down like I did last year. I'm not going to drink a lot during Sunday's game. Even if San Diego wins 41-10, I'm not going to drown myself in beers. I'm going to watch the game and not get upset. Why should I put myself through this like I did last year? I'm going to simply watch the game, have a beer or two, have some Gatorade and Pepsi, make myself a nice meal, and observe what takes place. No jumping up and down, no bitching and complaining, no screaming and yelling and no expectations. Whatever will happen will happen, and there is nothing I can do about it. I expect the Broncos to lose and lose badly because this is what the most recent Broncos do. They can't finish and they can't collapse. It looks like the 2009 Broncos will pick up where the 2008 Broncos left off at the end of last season. I'm not going down the same road, and I'm not going out like that. Maybe the Broncos will actually follow my lead this time.

Thursday Night Pick Change!

Chicago (+3 )over SF: I'm calling an audible and changing the pick. The Bears gut one out.

Week 10 Picks!!!!

We have hit full stride into the month of November, and in the NFL it is time to start separating the contenders from the pretenders. The best quote I heard about this time of the year in the NFL is this: "In November, the next game is the toughest." Every game is so important at this time and nowhere is this more evident than in Denver. Once the darlings of the NFL about three weeks ago, Denver has lost two straight, and critics are starting to swarm at the idea of the Broncos falling apart. Although Denver has some issues in all three phases of the game, they still are a good team, and I think their demise is being greatly exaggerated. The Broncos need to get back on track, and it starts this week in D.C. Onto the Week 10 picks....

Last Week's Record: 3-9-1
Overall Record: 61-65-3

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Chicago: The Bears defense is a mess. I could see Cutler putting the Bears on his back for this game, but I'm going to go with the Niners at home on a short week.

NEW YORK JETS (-6) over Jacksonville: The Jets need to start their run for the playoffs now. They get the medicore Jags to get them going.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincy: I am a believer in the Bengals, but this is the perfect spot for the Steelers. This game will be close, but the Steelers pull away at home.

Buffalo (+7) over TENNESSEE: I'm not buying stock in the Vince Young Era just yet. This is where the Bills are sneaky, and there is no way you can give the Titans a touchdown advantage over anyone.

MINNESOTA (-15) over Detroit: This is like Florida playing Coastal Carolina or Texas playing Louisiana Lafayette to start the season. A complete mismatch and a complete dismantling in the Metrodome.

New Orleans (-13) over ST. LOUIS: The Saints roll to 9-0 after a dominating performance in St. Louis. Can you believe that the Saints and Vikings both play the Lions and Rams respectively this week? What a scheduling disaster!

Atlanta (-1) over CAROLINA: I loved the Panthers early in the week, but a lot of people must have been putting money on the Panthers. I will take the Falcons, but this is going to be a tough battle.

MIAMI (-9) over Tampa Bay: The Bucs got their first win last week, and the Dolphins played another tough game and lost to the Patriots. I love the Fish this week. Easiest game to pick on the board.

Kansas City (+2) over OAKLAND: The Raiders suck badly, and the Chiefs are about to pass them for third in the AFC West.

ARIZONA (-7) over Seattle: This is a game that the Cards will usually lose, but I can't be confident in the Seahawks on the road. The Cards get it done this week at home.

SAN DIEGO (-2) over Philadelphia: Toughest game to pick of the week. Part of me is not buying into the Chargers resurgence, and part of me isn't ready to trust the Eagles on the road. Norv Turner vs. Andy Reid. Wow, what a matchup this will be. Anyway, I'm going with the Chargers at home because I'll take Philip Rivers over Donovan McNabb in a big spot.

GREEN BAY (+3) over Dallas: I LOVE THE PACKERS THIS WEEK! This is a perfect setup for the Cowboys to fall. The Packers are not dead yet, trust me. The Pack win it in Lambeau.

New England (+3 ) over INDY: The best rivalry in the NFL renews on Sunday Night. Manning vs. Brady is all you need to know getting ready for this game. I'll take the Pats on a late field goal to end the Colts undefeated run.

Baltimore (-10) over CLEVELAND: It doesn't matter if Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Bernie Kosar or Brian Sipe are starting for the Browns, their offense still blows, and it will not matchup well with the Ravens. You know it's bad when a team's fanbase is starting petitions to boycott games. This line can't be high enough. The Ravens roll on a Monday Night snoozefest.

WASHINGTON (+4) over Denver: It is gutcheck time for the Broncos. Their offense needs to start producing and it starts with the quarterback, Kyle Orton. This team needs a big win, but I just don't see it happening against the Redskins. The Skins aren't as bad as their 2-6 record indicates. This game scares the hell out of me. Also, the Broncos never play well on the road at early starts. The Skins shock Denver in D.C, and Broncos Country gets elevated to DEFCON 4.
Final Score: Washington-19 Denver-16.

The Steelers Bully the Broncos on Monday Night

The Broncos fell to 6-2 after a 28-10 loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. The Broncos dominated the first half and moved the ball well, but a Kyle Orton "Pick Six" to Tyrone Carter gave the Steelers a 7-3 lead. The second half belonged to the defending Super Bowl champs. Denver took a 10-7 lead on a Robert Ayers 64 yard fumble return early in the third quarter. From there, Ben Roethlisberger brought the Steelers right back with a short touchdown pass to Hines Ward to take a 14-10 lead. The Steeler defense shut down the Bronco offense repeatedly, and the final dagger was after Troy Polamalu intercepted Orton midway through the fourth quarter. Big Ben threw a touchdown pass to Mike Wallace on a 3rd and 6 and that was the ballgame. The Steelers flat out dominated Denver in the second half, and they basically bullied the Broncos around. Denver's defense played well, but once again they got no help from the offense, especially in the second half. The once undefeated Broncos were the talk of the NFL after a 6-0 start. Following their bye week, Denver has dropped two in a row, and both losses have brought a lot of concerns to forefront. To put a little perspective on the first half of the Broncos season, we will play a little question and answer game....

How would you grade Josh McDaniels' performance so far as a head coach? After the 6-0 start, you would have given McD an A. At 6-2, it would be fair to say that he deserves an A-. He has done a nice job with playcalling, but the last two weeks were not his best moments. His emotion and intensity is greatly infectious and energizing. Overall, McDaniels looks like he could be a very good head coach, but there will be some bumps in the road. It will be interesting to see how McDaniels gets him team ready for the second half.

How would you grade the Kyle Orton Era so far in Denver? At 6-0, Orton was considered a MVP candidate. After the last two losses, everyone is questioning his ability to play QB in the NFL. The bottom line on Orton is that he is an average NFL QB. He is not in the top tier or the lowest tier, he is a middle-of-the-pack NFL starting QB. Against average or weak defenses, he can be very successful. Against a solid or very good defense, he is going to struggle. I don't think you can count Orton out right now, but you have to deal with his good and bad moments. Right now he is our only option. I would say Orton deserves a B for his performance so far this season.

What about our vaunted offense? Denver's offense has been a disappointment so far this season. With that talent, the Broncos should be averaging way more then the 19-20 points they are averaging. An A game for the Bronco offense should be: Brandon Marshall- 9 catches for 120 yards, Eddie Royal- 7 for 75 yards, Tony Scheffler- 5 catches for 50 yards, and the combination of Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley for about 4 catches and 3 big first down conversions. Throw in 20 carries from Knowshon Moreno for about 90 yards, and Correll Buckhalter adding about 10 carries for 40 yards. That should be viable every week, especially with the Bronco defense. The offense needs to get better. There is too much talent for it to wallow in mediocrity. They get a C for a first half grade.

Is our defense falling apart? No, the Bronco defense is not falling apart. Every unit needs help from the other unit, and the Bronco defense is not getting any help from the offensive unit. The Broncos defense has played very well, and although they got beat the last two second games, the Bronco defense is here to stay. It would be nice for them to get a two score lead once in a while? Unless there is a rash of injuries, I look for the Bronco defense to continue to excel. First half grade: B+

The bottom line is that the sky is not falling. The Broncos are still 6-2, and they still have a game lead on the Chargers in the AFC West. They have a bunch of winnable games the second half of the season. They host Oakland, travel to Washington, and have two games with the Chiefs. They get the Chargers and Giants at home as well. I think Denver could get 10 or 11 wins, which would equal a very successful season. The Broncos aren't dead yet, and there is a lot of football left to play.

Week 9 Picks!

The NFL hits full stride as we approach Week 9 and the halfway point of the NFL season. It is amazing that we are already at the midway spot in the season, but it is November and now teams begin to make their move, and the games become really important. There are always one or two teams that are like 6-2 or 5-3 and fall apart to finish 8-8 or 7-9. Conversely, there are usually at least two teams that are at 4-4 or 3-5 and get hot to finish 10-6 and vault into a wild card spot. Who are this year's candidates to make a run? Miami is a perfect choice. They are 3-4, but they could easily be 5-2. Watch out for the Dolphins as they could make a run to the playoffs. Also, San Francisco fits into this category. They are 3-4 as well, but they have played hard each week, and almost beat the Colts in Indy last week. In a weak division, they could still make a run and snag the NFC West from the Cardinals. As far as the teams that could fall off in the second half of the season, there are a few teams that people think could fall off. In the AFC, the Broncos (6-1), Bengals (5-2), and Texans (5-3), could all struggle down the stretch and miss the playoffs. In the NFC, Dallas, the Giants, and Philly, one of them will struggle down the stretch and miss the playoffs. With that said, here are my Week 9 picks.....

Last Week's Record: (7-6)
Overall Record: (58-56-2)

JACKSONVILLE (-6) over Kansas City: The Jags are a weird team, but KC is a mess. The Todd Haley-Matt Cassel Era has not started the way Chief fans have envisioned.

Baltimore (-3) over CINCY: The Ravens are a legit Super Bowl contender. They will avenge a loss to the Bengals a few weeks ago. This is one of the best games of the weekend, and it should be a slugfest.

INDY (-8) over Houston: The Texans are good, but they aren't ready for Peyton Manning and company just yet. The Colts had their snoozer last week over the Niners, and they will bring the "A" game this week.

Washington (+10) over ATLANTA: There has to be a week when the huge underdogs rise up and meet the challenge and cover the ridiciously high spreada. I'll roll the dice with the Skins this week. Call it the upset special.

Green Bay (-9) over TAMPA BAY: The Packers will feast on the Bucs this week in the "Bay the Pigs." The Bucs have turned to Josh Freeman, which means the Pack's secondary has a big day.

Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO: The Cards get it done this week in Chicago. Kurt Warner will play lights out on the road to defeat the Bears.

Miami (-10) over NEW ENGLAND: This is the most ridiculous line of the year. The Dolphins are good. This is my lock of the week.

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina: The Panthers saved their season last week in Arizona, but they will get smoked in the Superdome this week. The Saints roll to 8-0.

SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit: The Seahawks get back on track at home this week against the hapless Lions.

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Tennessee: The Niners played hard the last two weeks on the road and lost close games. The Titans finally won their first game last week. This sets up perfectly for a Niner win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over San Diego: The Giants need to step up and stop the bleeding. This game could go either way. I'll ride the Giants at home in a must win for both teams.

PHILLY (-3) over Dallas: The Eagles take care of business on SNF. I think the Cowboys are good, but I like the Eagles better. Philly is the team to beat in NFC East.

Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER: Another bad matchup for Denver. The Steelers defense is too fast and physical for the Broncos. Big Ben makes too many plays, and Denver falls to 6-2. Final Score: Steelers-24- Denver-13

Just Not Their Day

There are games in the NFL where it just seems that it is not your day. For the Broncos their game in Baltimore was as simple as this: It was not their day. Denver suffered their first loss of the 2009 campaign as the Baltimore Ravens pounded the Broncos 30-7 on Sunday. The defeat drops Denver's record to 6-1, but the Broncos still hold a two game lead in the AFC West. No one expected the Broncos to win every game, and this game was supposed to be a test, but there is no such thing as a good loss in the NFL. The Broncos 6-0 start has given them the luxury of a few slip ups this season, but the Broncos have to go back and look in the mirror because they were dominated by the Ravens. They couldn't run the ball, they couldn't get open, and they couldn't protect the QB very well. Everytime you looked up it was 3rd and 10 or 3rd and 12. The Broncos offense is not going to be able to constantly overcome a lot of third and long situations. Also, the field position battle was completely in the favor of the Ravens. The Bronco special teams played terrible yesterday. They were terrible in kick coverage, couldn't generate any returns in the kicking game, and their new punter, Mitch Berger, was flat out awful. The pressure was constantly on the defense. For the first time this season, the defense cracked in the second half. They gave up 17 crucial points, and the Ravens killed the Broncos on third down. Once again, there are some days like this in the NFL. On the road and against a very good team that is desperate, is a tough game to win in the NFL. The Broncos found that out the hard way. Now the only the thing to do is regroup, put this game away, and get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers next Monday Night. It will be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels and the rest of the Broncos respond against the defending Super Bowl Champions next week.