Super Bowl XLIV is set. The Indianapolis Colts will take on the New Orleans Saints in Miami on Sunday February 7th. It is the first time both number one seeds will be facing off in the Super Bowl since Dallas and Buffalo squared off in Super Bowl XXVIII. The hype will start to rev up by the end of the week, and I will preview the big game as we get closer to next week. Before we get there, we need to look back at Conference Championship weekend. It was a good slate of games and both home teams won for the second year in a row. Here are some random musings about the games....
AFC Championship: Indianapolis defeats New York Jets 30-17.
1) Great play call by Brian Schottenheimer down 3-0 in the second quarter. Mark Sanchez hit Braylon Edwards with a 80 yard bomb off of a play-action on first down to put the Jets in the lead 7-3.
2) Give Mark Sanchez credit because he played really well and gutsy all game long. His touchdown pass to Dustin Keller was a great play to put the Jets up 14-6.
3) The Jets got to Peyton Manning early in the game and kept the Colts out of rhythm. If you would have told a Jet the following was going to happen in the game: Jets would hold the Colts to two field goals for most of the first half, force a fumble by Joseph Addai, and get two touchdown passes by Mark Sanchez and a big pass from Brad Smith to Jerricho Cotchery. Do you think Jet fans would have thought they were winning the game?
4) Once the Jets led 17-6, Peyton Manning took over. His 4 play 80 yard drive was a thing of beauty capped off by a touchdown pass to Austin Collie. Everyone in America knew the Jets were in trouble once the Colts scored to make it 17-13 right before the half.
5) The Jets needed to get points to stave off Indy when they got the ball to start the second half. Once Jay Feely missed that 52 yard field goal, you could tell the Colts were going to take over. Manning to Pierre Garcon gave the Colts the 20-17 lead and they never looked back.
6) Peyton Manning is probably going to be the best Quarterback of all time, but a lot of his success goes to Howard Mudd and Tom Moore. Those guys are great coaches who have been around the NFL for a long time. You knew those two would get together with Manning to figure out how to attack the Jets.
7) Give the Jets credit. They played hard and made a great run in the playoffs. They lost to the best team in the NFL and the best QB alive. There is nothing to be ashamed of. They have a good Head Coach and a good young nucleus to be a very good team next year. That doesn't guarantee that they will be back in the AFC Championship Game in 2010, but they will be a favorite in the AFC East for sure.
8) The Colts have not lost a game this year when they played all of their starters (16-0). This team is loaded and will be next year and for many years after.
NFC Championship: New Orleans defeats Minnesota 31-28 in Overtime
1) How did the Vikings lose this game? They outgained the Saints 475 to 257. They ran 82 plays compared to 55 for the Saints. They were 7-12 on 3rd down and the Saints were 3-12. Of course the five turnovers did them in, but the Vikings outplayed the Saints all night.
2) Brett Favre can make you happy one minute, and then he can kill the next. His interception with 7 seconds left in the game was an absolute dagger. Favre always is shaky in big spots, just like in the 2007 NFC Title Game.
3) Adrian Peterson ran well and was a beast, but his fumbling is killing him. It has become an epidemic. That will be a huge storyline for him going into next year.
4) The pass interference call on Ben Leber in overtime was a disgrace. How can the officials decide the game like that? Just an awful call. Overtime in the playoffs in the NFL should be like OT in the NHL playoffs. The refs should just put the flags and whistles away and let the players decide the outcome.
5) The Vikings 12 men in the huddle penalty late in the fourth quarter will go down as one of the biggest coaching blunders ever. A lot of people get on Brad Childress as a game manager and now we know why. What a terrible job by him. It will take a lot before Childress ever lets this one down.
6) Kudos to Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Payton is a very good coach, and Drew Brees is a fantastic QB. Those two really saved the Saints franchise.
7) The Saints make their first Super Bowl appearance ever. The franchise and that city deserves to enjoy this moment.
8) My heart goes out to all the Vikings fans out there. What a gutwrenching loss. With all due respect to the Bills, Jets, Eagles, and Browns, there is no fan base that has suffered more than the Minnesota Vikings. Think about these awful losses in their history: 1) All four Super Bowl losses 2) 1975 Playoff loss to Dallas on the Hail Mary play 3) 1987 loss at the goalline in the NFC Championship against Washington 4) 1992 playoff loss at home to Washington 5) 1994 playoff drubbing at home to the Bears 6) 1998 NFC Championship loss to Atlanta (Enough Said) 7) The 2000 NFC Title debacle at the Giants 41-0 7) The 2003 season finale loss at Arizona on the last play to knock them out of the playoffs and now 8) 2009 NFC Championship loss at New Orleans. I feel bad for Viking fans. This was their year, and they will never forget how close they were to getting to the Super Bowl. This loss will last with them for a lifetime.
Next Week.....Super Bowl XLIV coverage
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Conference Championship Picks!
The last real Sunday of the NFL season is upon us. Championship Sunday is the real last NFL day because the Super Bowl is about everything else but the game. The celebrities, the parties, the commercials are all elements of the Super Bowl, and the real die-hard NFL fan gets pushed aside by Moms, Wives, and mainstream America. The Conference Championships are a special day in the NFL. Two games, played back to back, that will decide who goes to the Super Bowl. The history of recent Championship Sunday is this: You usually get one good game and one blowout, and you get at least one road team winning. Also, the matchup that everyone wants to see never comes to fruition. Last year was an exception: Two home teams won (Arizona and Pittsburgh) and both games were close. In 2007, one road team won (Giants) and Giants-Packers was a classic, while Pats-SD was a boring game. 2006 saw both home teams win, but Indy-NE was a fantastic game. In 2005, one road team won (Pitt) and in 2004, both home teams won. In 2003, one road team won (Carolina) and both games were pretty close. In 2002, one road team won (Tampa) and both games were pretty close. Here's my point, since 2002, both road teams did not win the Conference Title games. You have to go back to 1997 (GB and Denver) to find two road teams winning this weekend. Throw in the fact that the enticing matchup of Jets-Vikings would require both road teams winning, then you know that it won't happen this year. In any event, enjoy the games on Sunday. It's the last great NFL day until next September. It's an exciting day of football, but it is also a sad day because it is one step closer to the end of the season. Onto to the picks....
Last Week: 2-2
Overall Playoff Record: 3-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Minnesota: Think about how loud the Superdome will be on Sunday. This is a great matchup for the NFC Championship. These two teams were the best in the NFC from Week 1. Philly got some publicity late in the season, and the Cowboys gained some credibility from Week 17 into the playoffs, but if you look at the bigger picture, the Vikes and Saints were the best teams in the NFC all season long. Both fanbases are dying to win this game. This is the best Viking team since '98, and a win this Sunday could alleviate some pain from the 1998 loss to Atlanta and the 2000 debacle at the Giants. The Saints have been this far only once (2006) and have never hosted a NFC Title game. This is the best Saints team ever, and this game could develop into a shootout. I think Favre will play very well on the road, but the Saints will make one more big play on offense. Drew Brees is a different QB at home, and that Saints offense resembles a fast break offense playing on their home court. The game will be back and forth, but Brees will make a play or two late to secure the Saints first Super Bowl appearance.
Final Score: New Orleans-34 Minnesota-24
New York Jets (+8) over INDIANAPOLIS: The last time the Colts and Jets played this big of a game it was Super Bowl III. The Colts and Peyton Manning have all the pressure. They are at home, favored, and must justify resting their starters at the end of the season and forgoing the 16-0 mark. The Jets have the classic underdog look to them. They have the free-spirited Head Coach, naive rookie QB, dominating defense, and a punishing running game. They have played the "No one thought we were here" routine since Week 16. This game just smells like a classic upset. Can't you just see Manning getting frustrated with Rex Ryan's defense and pouting on the sidelines, while yelling at his receivers for dropping some easy passes. Can't you see Matt Stover shanking two field goals, and the cameras panning to Adam Vinatieri standing on the Colts sideline? Can't you see Mark Sanchez making one or two plays that no one thought he could make? I do, and I'll tell you why: It is the Jets time. As much as I hate to say it, it is true. It is their time. As obnoxious and arrogant their fans are, it is their time. The law of averages applies to this. You root for a team long enough, and at some point they will come through for you. Look at the Red Sox in 2004. It is bound to happen. The Jets have knocked on destiny's door a few times, and they have failed their fans each time. Week 16 against the second-string Colts changed all that. Last week's win over San Diego was a game the Jets normally would lose, but they held on. It is just their time. Sometimes in sports teams will get on an improbable run, and it can't be stopped by anyone-including Peyton Manning. I don't know if the Jets will win the Super Bowl, but for the first time since Joe Namath walked off the field after Super Bowl III, the Jets will make it to the Super Bowl. I never thought I would type those words, but it is just their time.
Final Score: Jets-20 Colts-17
Last Week: 2-2
Overall Playoff Record: 3-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Minnesota: Think about how loud the Superdome will be on Sunday. This is a great matchup for the NFC Championship. These two teams were the best in the NFC from Week 1. Philly got some publicity late in the season, and the Cowboys gained some credibility from Week 17 into the playoffs, but if you look at the bigger picture, the Vikes and Saints were the best teams in the NFC all season long. Both fanbases are dying to win this game. This is the best Viking team since '98, and a win this Sunday could alleviate some pain from the 1998 loss to Atlanta and the 2000 debacle at the Giants. The Saints have been this far only once (2006) and have never hosted a NFC Title game. This is the best Saints team ever, and this game could develop into a shootout. I think Favre will play very well on the road, but the Saints will make one more big play on offense. Drew Brees is a different QB at home, and that Saints offense resembles a fast break offense playing on their home court. The game will be back and forth, but Brees will make a play or two late to secure the Saints first Super Bowl appearance.
Final Score: New Orleans-34 Minnesota-24
New York Jets (+8) over INDIANAPOLIS: The last time the Colts and Jets played this big of a game it was Super Bowl III. The Colts and Peyton Manning have all the pressure. They are at home, favored, and must justify resting their starters at the end of the season and forgoing the 16-0 mark. The Jets have the classic underdog look to them. They have the free-spirited Head Coach, naive rookie QB, dominating defense, and a punishing running game. They have played the "No one thought we were here" routine since Week 16. This game just smells like a classic upset. Can't you just see Manning getting frustrated with Rex Ryan's defense and pouting on the sidelines, while yelling at his receivers for dropping some easy passes. Can't you see Matt Stover shanking two field goals, and the cameras panning to Adam Vinatieri standing on the Colts sideline? Can't you see Mark Sanchez making one or two plays that no one thought he could make? I do, and I'll tell you why: It is the Jets time. As much as I hate to say it, it is true. It is their time. As obnoxious and arrogant their fans are, it is their time. The law of averages applies to this. You root for a team long enough, and at some point they will come through for you. Look at the Red Sox in 2004. It is bound to happen. The Jets have knocked on destiny's door a few times, and they have failed their fans each time. Week 16 against the second-string Colts changed all that. Last week's win over San Diego was a game the Jets normally would lose, but they held on. It is just their time. Sometimes in sports teams will get on an improbable run, and it can't be stopped by anyone-including Peyton Manning. I don't know if the Jets will win the Super Bowl, but for the first time since Joe Namath walked off the field after Super Bowl III, the Jets will make it to the Super Bowl. I never thought I would type those words, but it is just their time.
Final Score: Jets-20 Colts-17
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Coaching Moves in Denver
Last week, Rick Dennison left Denver to become the Offensive Coordinator in Houston and join his old pal, Gary Kubiak. Running Backs coach Bobby Turner left to become Associate Head Coach with Mike Shanahan in Washington. Both moves were not surprising. Monday it was annoucned that Denver and Mike Nolan had parted ways mutually. It seems that the Miami Dolphins had expressed interest in Nolan, and Josh McDaniels wasn't willing to give them permission to talk to him. After some discussion internally, McDaniels and Nolan parted ways leaving Nolan the opportunity to become the Defensive Coordinator in Miami- a position which he accepted on Tuesday. I wouldn't look too much into the situation. McDaniels is looking for new Defensive Coordinator. The front-runner is Dean Pees, formerly the DC of the Patriots. McD and Pees worked with each other in New England for a number of years. Stay tuned to see where all the chips will fall in the coaching puzzle.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The San Diego Chokers
As much as I loathe the New York Jets, Sunday's game against the Chargers was a bit satisfying. The Chargers choked away another playoff opportunity and this may have been the worst one. In 2004, San Diego was 12-4 and hosting the Jets in the Wild Card Round. Many people felt that the Chargers were a dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl, and they could upset either New England or Pittsburgh later in the playoffs. Well, San Diego was shocked by the Jets at home 20-17, and the Chargers failed to make the playoffs in 2005. In 2006, the Chargers finished with a NFL-best 14-2 record, and they had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Once again, San Diego fell in their first playoff game in a crushing 24-21 loss to New England. Out went Marty Schottenheimer and in came Norv Turner. In 2007, the Chargers finished 11-5, and beat Tennessee in the first round, and upset Peyton Manning and the Colts on the road in the Divisional round. The Chargers fell to 17-0 New England in the AFC Title Game, and it was assumed that the Chargers had taken care of their playoff demons. In 2008, the Chargers won the division with an 8-8 record, and they defeated Indy in the first round of the playoffs. The Chargers lost in the second round to Pittsburgh on the road, but the feeling around the league was that the Chargers were close and were one of the favorites going into 2009. The Chargers started '09 2-3, but they ripped off 11 in a row to finish 13-3 and the number 2 seed in the AFC. In came a 9-7 Jets team and many people felt the Chargers were the only team that could defeat the Colts on the way to the AFC Title and a Super Bowl berth. Once again, the Chargers' playoff demons came back to haunt them, and they lost to the Jets 17-14. Where does this leave the Chargers? Well, from a Bronco fan perspective, you would hope that the window is closing. In the modern NFL, you can only be on top for so long. You can only win so many division titles in a row before eventually you can a dip downward. Look at the Giants. Two years ago they were Super Bowl Champions. Last year, they finished 12-4. This year they finished 8-8 and now have to rebuild their defense and reload. They made the playoffs four years in a row, but the fifth straight year was not to be. There are many reasons why a team can fall off. One reason is that it is hard to maintain a high-level of play year after year. Another reason is that the difference from 11-5 to 7-9 is so small and marginal. Two bad games and you finish 8-8 instead of 10-6. Also, the physicality of the NFL takes a toll on the offensive and defensive lines. No position goes south quicker than the boys upfront. Some lines can remain the same the next year, but their level of play just drops off. The Chargers could fall victim to each of these factors. Plus, it is obvious that the Chargers' core group (Rivers, Norv, LT, Merriman, Jackson etc...) plays better when they are down or the underdog. If they are favorites or the lead dog, then they come up small in all areas: Coaching, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. They are better when they are counted out like they were in 2008. They are better when they are the underdog in the playoffs like in 2007 and 2008 against Indy. The bottom line is that the window could be closing. All of those home playoff games and division titles are hard to come by and you can't take it for granted. At some point there has to be a payoff of at least one Super Bowl appearance. For the Chargers and their fans it hasn't happened. The Chargers will always be a threat as long as Phillip Rivers is around, but maybe the door is a little more open in the AFC West now that the Chargers have choked away another playoff run. Stay Classy, San Diego!
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Divisional Round Thoughts
We are down to the final four in the NFL, as the Divisional Round is complete. It wasn't the greatest set of games on Divisional Weekend, but it did set up some very intriguing Championship games next week. Let's go back and take a look at the Divisional Playoffs...
New Orleans defeats Arizona 45-14
1) The Saints looked ready and confident and played their best ball in a month. They completely overwhelmed the Cardinals, and they looked like the team that started 13-0.
2) The Cards ran out of gas. We were waiting for this type of game by the Cards since last year's playoffs, but they surprised us everytime. Kurt Warner is a great player, but even he could get the Cards through this game.
3) Reggie Bush stepped up and made the kind of impact that we were used to seeing when he was at USC. He is gamebreaker, and his touchdown run and punt return were classic Reggie Bush plays.
4) I'm happy for Drew Brees. I always liked Drew Brees when he was at Purdue, and he really has meant so much for New Orleans and the community. He is a good guy, and he has had such an impact for that franchise. The Saints host the NFC Title game for the first time, and they can make their first ever Super Bowl appearance if they win next week.
Indianapolis defeats Baltimore 20-3
1) This game turned when Baltimore went three and out with under two minutes to go in the first half and down 10-3. By giving Peyton Manning another possession before the half, you are going to get burned. Manning delivered with a TD pass to Reggie Wayne and it was over from there.
2) Ed Reed's interception of Manning could have made this game closer, but when he got stripped by Indy's Pierre Garcon, that was it for the Ravens.
3) The Colts didn't look super efficient on offense, but they did enough when they needed to. Maybe Peyton needed a week to get going.
4) The Ravens need to find themselves a big time receiver. I'm sure they will explore Brandon Marshall in the offseason.
5) The Colts defense is very underrated, and it has been all season long. They get no credit, but they tackle so well.
Minnesota defeats Dallas 34-3
1) Give Brad Childress and Brett Favre credit: They wanted to work with each other because they believed they could win the Super Bowl, and now they are one step away.
2) Jared Allen and the Vikings defensive line just flat out destroyed the Cowboys and Tony Romo. It wasn't even a fair fight.
3) The Favre-Sidney Rice combination became one of the most dangerous overnight this year. What a performance by Rice with three TD catches.
4) The Cowboys looked like the hot team and were poised to make a run, but they were dominated by Minnesota. The better team won, and the Vikings deserve all the credit, but Tony Romo was terrible all day long.
5) Wade Phillips should keep his job, and the Cowboys have a bright future. Their core group (Romo, Jones, Austin, Witten, Ware) is young so they should be in contention next year.
6) The Vikings head to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2000. They could be headed to their first Super Bowl since 1976.
Jets defeat San Diego 17-14
1) Wow, where do we start with this game? The Jets ability to run the ball consistently has been phenomenal in the playoffs. When they wanted to run it, they ran it on the Chargers.
2) For the second straight week, Mark Sanchez wasn't spectacular, but he made some big throws on third down. You have to tip your cap to him. His touchdown throw to Dustin Keller on 3rd and Goal in the fourth quarter was a great play. That put the Jets up 10-7, and they didn't look back.
3) Shonn Greene is the best running back out of the 2009 Draft class. He ran for over 100 yards the second straight game, and his touchdown run was a backbreaker to give the Jets a 17-7 lead late in the fourth.
4) Once again the Jets defense came through. They just kept coming after Philip Rivers, and they did a great job to keep the Chargers offense off balanced. Give credit to Rex Ryan because he did a great job coaching for the second week in a row.
5) The Jets improbably advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since 1998 (A loss to Denver thank you very much).
6) As much as the Jets deserved to win, and I don't want to take any credit away from them, the Chargers pulled another Playoff chokejob.
7) Nate Kaeding's 36 yard missed field goal on the first drive set the tone for the game. His second missed field goal from 40 yards late in the fourth quarter was plain awful.
8) Philip Rivers couldn't get it going in the second half, and the Chargers made too many mistakes on offense. Too many penalties just killed any momentum they had going on offense.
9) If that was LaDanian Tomlinson's last game as a Charger, what a way to go out. Brutal.
10) Why is Norv Turner going for an onside kick down 3 with 2:14 left and one timeout? Why? Just when you think Norv has turned the corner, he proves that he sucks as a big time head coach? I'll take Josh McDaniels anyday.
11) Five Division Titles in six years. Four straight AFC West Titles. 12-4 in 2004 14-2 in 2006, 11-5 in 2007, 13-3 in 2009 and no Super Bowls to show for it. Three of those times the Chargers lost at home in their first game. I'm not saying the Chargers are done, but opportunity only knocks for so long.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Divisional Weekend Picks
Many NFL pundits and experts believe that this weekend is the best weekend of football for the entire year. You get doubleheaders on both Saturday and Sunday, and the top seeds in both conferences get into action. As much as I love this weekend, I don't necessarily love it more then the Wild Card weekend. Those two weeks are pretty much equal to me. A regular season Sunday is still the best for me because you have as many as 14 games from 1:00 pm EST to 7:00 pm and a Sunday Night game to cap off the evening. Anyway, this weekend sets up some great matchups, but you can't count on all the favorites. Going back to 2002, this round averages about 2 road teams that advance. Last year, we had 3 road teams, so expect some underdogs and road teams to pull the upsets. Onto to the picks.....
Last Week: 1-3
Overall Playoff Record: 1-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Arizona (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: This could potentially be another wild shootout involving Kurt Warner and Drew Brees. You have to like the Saints at home, but you can't like how the Saints played down the stretch. The Cardinals can obviously put up points, and the Saints love to blitz, which plays perfectly into Warner's hands. The Cards are so dangerous in this spot, and the Saints have a lot of pressure. I'll go with history and Warner.
Final Score: Arizona-31 New Orleans-26
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Baltimore: These two teams played a classic game in the regular season won by the Colts. I know the Colts laid down the last two weeks, and the pressure is on, but I like Peyton Manning in this game because he has seen and played the Ravens already. You can't give Manning two chances at a team because he will find the weaknesses and exploit them. Also, if Manning misses on his first opportunity, he can come back and take advantage of the next opportunity when it arises. The Ravens secondary is their weakness, and they were able to sidestep that weakness last week in the win over New England. I'll take the Colts and Manning to move on.
Final Score: Indy-28 Ravens-17
Dallas (+4) over MINNESOTA: All of the pressure is on the Vikings this week. This is the only reason why Brett Favre came back. It is Super Bowl or bust for the Vikings and Favre, and they drew a tough Cowboys team in the Divisional Round. The Cowboys defense is playing fantastic and Tony Romo will make one more play then Favre.
Final Score: Dallas-24 Minnesota-21
New York Jets (+7) over SAN DIEGO: This is the year for the Chargers. They really feel that this is their best shot since 2006 to get to the Super Bowl. I think that will be too much pressure for them on Sunday. Look, I hate the Jets. I really, really hate the friggin Jets, but I just have this funny feeling all week. I've learned my lesson about a superb defense vs. a great offense. Recently, the team with the best defense wins the game (See Super Bowl 42-Giants over Pats). The only way the Jets got into the playoffs was because the Colts laid down in Week 16. Maybe we are just destined to see the Jets get a chance to play the Colts the next week in the AFC Championship.
Final Score: Jets-22 Chargers-21
Last Week: 1-3
Overall Playoff Record: 1-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Arizona (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: This could potentially be another wild shootout involving Kurt Warner and Drew Brees. You have to like the Saints at home, but you can't like how the Saints played down the stretch. The Cardinals can obviously put up points, and the Saints love to blitz, which plays perfectly into Warner's hands. The Cards are so dangerous in this spot, and the Saints have a lot of pressure. I'll go with history and Warner.
Final Score: Arizona-31 New Orleans-26
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Baltimore: These two teams played a classic game in the regular season won by the Colts. I know the Colts laid down the last two weeks, and the pressure is on, but I like Peyton Manning in this game because he has seen and played the Ravens already. You can't give Manning two chances at a team because he will find the weaknesses and exploit them. Also, if Manning misses on his first opportunity, he can come back and take advantage of the next opportunity when it arises. The Ravens secondary is their weakness, and they were able to sidestep that weakness last week in the win over New England. I'll take the Colts and Manning to move on.
Final Score: Indy-28 Ravens-17
Dallas (+4) over MINNESOTA: All of the pressure is on the Vikings this week. This is the only reason why Brett Favre came back. It is Super Bowl or bust for the Vikings and Favre, and they drew a tough Cowboys team in the Divisional Round. The Cowboys defense is playing fantastic and Tony Romo will make one more play then Favre.
Final Score: Dallas-24 Minnesota-21
New York Jets (+7) over SAN DIEGO: This is the year for the Chargers. They really feel that this is their best shot since 2006 to get to the Super Bowl. I think that will be too much pressure for them on Sunday. Look, I hate the Jets. I really, really hate the friggin Jets, but I just have this funny feeling all week. I've learned my lesson about a superb defense vs. a great offense. Recently, the team with the best defense wins the game (See Super Bowl 42-Giants over Pats). The only way the Jets got into the playoffs was because the Colts laid down in Week 16. Maybe we are just destined to see the Jets get a chance to play the Colts the next week in the AFC Championship.
Final Score: Jets-22 Chargers-21
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Random Notes Part II
More random thoughts regarding last Sunday's Wild Card matchups....
Baltimore defeats New England 33-14
1) The Ravens justified their entry into the playoffs with their performance on Sunday. Ray Rice's 83 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game set the tone, and the game wasn't even as close as the score.
2) Ray Lewis was fantastic on Sunday. If you doing a Mount Rushmore of greatest defensive players in NFL history, Lewis has to be in that discussion.
3) We live in a world where Joe Flacco beats Tom Brady in a playoff game, while throwing for 34 yards. Unbelievable.
4) Turnovers change any game in the playoffs, and the Ravens got three in the first quarter, but they were clearly the more physical and better team in this game.
5) I'm not ready to announce that this is the end of the Patriots' run. They obviously still have to retool and reload, but with Brady and Belichick you will always have a chance. Don't pour the dirt on the Patriots grave just yet. They will be back with a vengenance.
Arizona defeats Green Bay 51-45
1) A fun game and easily one of the most exciting playoff games in a long time. A wild shootout that explemified the new NFL. If you have a great QB, then the game is set up for big plays in the passing game, and both teams took advantage of that.
2) Kurt Warner solidified his spot as a Hall of Famer in my mind after his game on Sunday.
3) Give Aaron Rodgers credit. His was fantastic in this game, and the Packers are set up to be a contender in the NFC for a long time. We might look back on the Packers as their signature game in their run this decade. He will regret missing Greg Jennings on a long bomb to start overtime. That will bother him all offseason.
4) Mike McCarthy did a great job on Sunday. His decision to go for an onside kick at 31-17 was the perfect move at the right time. That is the responsibility of a NFL head coach. He understood how the game was playing out and he made a decision that best suited the team and the type of game they were in.
5) The Cardinals are scary and they could very easily go into New Orleans this week and beat the Saints. They are very dangerous this week on the road.
Baltimore defeats New England 33-14
1) The Ravens justified their entry into the playoffs with their performance on Sunday. Ray Rice's 83 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game set the tone, and the game wasn't even as close as the score.
2) Ray Lewis was fantastic on Sunday. If you doing a Mount Rushmore of greatest defensive players in NFL history, Lewis has to be in that discussion.
3) We live in a world where Joe Flacco beats Tom Brady in a playoff game, while throwing for 34 yards. Unbelievable.
4) Turnovers change any game in the playoffs, and the Ravens got three in the first quarter, but they were clearly the more physical and better team in this game.
5) I'm not ready to announce that this is the end of the Patriots' run. They obviously still have to retool and reload, but with Brady and Belichick you will always have a chance. Don't pour the dirt on the Patriots grave just yet. They will be back with a vengenance.
Arizona defeats Green Bay 51-45
1) A fun game and easily one of the most exciting playoff games in a long time. A wild shootout that explemified the new NFL. If you have a great QB, then the game is set up for big plays in the passing game, and both teams took advantage of that.
2) Kurt Warner solidified his spot as a Hall of Famer in my mind after his game on Sunday.
3) Give Aaron Rodgers credit. His was fantastic in this game, and the Packers are set up to be a contender in the NFC for a long time. We might look back on the Packers as their signature game in their run this decade. He will regret missing Greg Jennings on a long bomb to start overtime. That will bother him all offseason.
4) Mike McCarthy did a great job on Sunday. His decision to go for an onside kick at 31-17 was the perfect move at the right time. That is the responsibility of a NFL head coach. He understood how the game was playing out and he made a decision that best suited the team and the type of game they were in.
5) The Cardinals are scary and they could very easily go into New Orleans this week and beat the Saints. They are very dangerous this week on the road.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Wild Card Weekend Random Thoughts!
With Wildcard Weekend behind us, we turn our attention to Divisional Weekend in the NFL Playoffs. All of the big boys now get into action, as the top seeds in both the NFC (Saints and Vikings) and the AFC (Colts and Chargers) host their playoff games this week. Before we look ahead to the Divisional Round, let's look back at what transpired during Wild Card Weekend.
Jets defeat Cincy 24-14
1) I'm really disappointed in Bengals QB Carson Palmer. The former number one pick had a chance to take another step in his career, but instead he took a step backwards. He was awful all day long. He missed receivers and threw a game-changing interception in the second quarter. Palmer, who waited five years since his last playoff appearance, looked and played flat. There are going to be a lot of questions about him heading into next year.
2) Give the Jets credit because they came to play and executed their game plan perfectly. They got timely turnovers on defense (Caldwell's fumble on the first drive and Revis' interception), a big game from their rushing attack, and a superb game from rookie Mark Sanchez. They were the better team on Saturday and it showed.
3) Mark Sanchez deserves a lot of credit. We live in a world where Mark Sanchez won his first playoff game on the road, while attempting 15 passes. He made great throws to Dustin Keller and made big throws on third down throughout the game.
4) The Bengals couldn't overcome their mistakes. A fumble on the opening drive and two missed field goals killed their chances. This was their first playoff game since 2005. They had waited a long time for this game and they failed to get the job done. Home playoff games don't come every year. This was a very bad loss for this franchise, and it will be hard for them to recover in 2010.
Dallas defeats Philly 34-14
1) The Cowboys get the monkey off their back with their first playoff win since 1996. Now, the pressure is off, and they will be dangerous in the next round.
2) Tony Romo is playing great and moving himself up the NFL QB ladder.
3) The Eagles are a good team, but they got a bad draw by getting Dallas in Round One. If Philly drew Arizona or Green Bay, I think they could have advanced, but Dallas had their number this year.
Part II Coming Up Later....
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Wild Card Weekend Picks!
17 weeks of football are over. There are only three real weekends left of the NFL. The playoffs have finally arrived, and they kick off this weekend with Wild Card Weekend. This weekend and next weekend are two of the best weeks in sports. You get doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday both weekends, and it is nothing but high intensity and pressure filled football. Think about this while you are watching the games this weekend: In 2005, Pittsburgh opened up their Super Bowl run on Wild Card Weekend. In 2006, the Colts started their Super Bowl run on Wild Card Saturday. In 2007, the Giants began their march to the Super Bowl on Wild Card Weekend. Last year, the Cardinals began their run to a Super Bowl appearance on Wild Card Weekend. It is pretty amazing that the last four Super Bowls featured a team that played their first game in the first round of the playoffs. The NFL playoffs are becoming more and more of a crapshoot. We could be sitting there in February getting ready for the Super Bowl and thinking, "How the hell did the Jets win three road games and make the Super Bowl?" We could be saying to ourselves, "I can't believe I counted the Pats out before the playoffs started?" or "Wow, I didn't realize how Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson basically willed the Packers to the Super Bowl." Who could make it to the Super Bowl out of this group of eight that will play during Wild Card Weekend? I think this is the order from most likely to least likely: 1)Pats 2) Dallas 3) Philly 4) Arizona 5) Packers 6) Ravens 7) Bengals 8) Jets. Could the streak reach five this year? Who knows because the NFL Playoffs resemble the NCAA Tournament more then ever. Onto the picks.....
Week 17 Record: 9-4-3
Final Regular Season Record: 120-126-11
Last Year's Wild Card Record: 3-1
Last Year's Playoff Record: 5-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
BENGALS (-2) over New York Jets: I have loved this game ever since the second quarter of the Jets blowout over Cincy last Sunday Night. The Bengals have had a solid defense all year long, especially against the run. Against the Jets in Week 17, they were without Robert Geathers and Domata Peko and Chris Crocker. You can't tell me that the Bengals went all out on SNF. I think you will see a better effort by the defense on Saturday. The Jets did dominate the line of scrimmage, and they can run the ball effectively, but I have a feeling something will be different in this game. The Jets can't hide Mark Sanchez, and there will be a time when the Bengals will force the Jets and Sanchez to make a big time play. If he does pass that test, then there is a good chance that the Jets will win the game. The more the Jets piled on last week, the more and more I liked the Cincinnati's chances. The other factor in this game is Carson Palmer. The Bengals have pulled the reins in on him this year, but he is still a very good QB. I look for him to make some big throws and play very well. Another huge factor is that the fact that this game is in Cincy. The Bengals last hosted a playoff game in 2005, and the wind was taken out of their sails when Palmer was hurt on the first play. The Bengal fans will be pumped and the stadium will be rocking. I see the Bengals jumping out early and forcing the Jets into some third and long situations. I see Sanchez struggling and giving one of those "Holy shit, the playoffs are really no joke" type looks as he comes off the field on another three and out. Too many people are overrated the Jets and underestimating the Bengals. Not me. I'll take the Bengals giving two points. Final Score: Bengals-23 Jets-13.
Philadelphia (+4) over DALLAS: You have to love the setting for this game: Saturday Night, Wild Card Game, Philly-Dallas, the new Cowboys Stadium. Philly was one of the hottest teams in the league and boasted one of the best offenses when it entered Dallas in Week 17. The Cowboys thrashed the Eagles 24-0, but I'm not ready to buy into Dallas yet. If Dallas was hosting the Packers or playing anyone else in the field, I could see myself picking them, but I'm not going to go against the Eagles in this one. There is enormous pressure on the Cowboys this week. From Jerry Jones to Wade Phillips to Tony Romo to the kicker and even the concession stand guy, there is a tremendous amount of pressure on them to win this game. I know the Cowboys have won two games in two attempts from the Eagles, but Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb find a way to pull this one out. No one really stopped the combination of Brent Celek, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin all year, and they will have big days on Saturday Night. The Eagles were my preseason Super Bowl pick, so I'll stay with them here.
Final Score: Philly-27 Dallas-21
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore: The Ravens haven't been impressive since their 3-0 start. They were 6-6 at one point, and the only reason they got in was because they played Detroit, Chicago, and Oakland down the stretch. They will rely too much in their run game, and their secondary can't stop anyone. Although the Pats lost Wes Welker due to injury, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. That is good enough for me. This will be close for awhile, but Brady will find ways to exploit that Ravens secondary. I'll stick with the Pats in Foxboro.
Final Score: New England-24 Ravens-17
ARIZONA (-1) over Green Bay: As much as I would like to see the Packers win, the Cardinals will come out on top. Throw their Week 17 games out of the window. All Arizona has to do is get the Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald game going. The Packers will counter with putting Charles Woodson on Fizgerald, but Warner has other weapons (Don't forget about Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells), and he will find ways to beat the Packers in the passing game. Aaron Rodgers will play well and expect a lot of points and a lot of yards, but at the end of the day, Warner will make a few more plays then Rodgers. Final Score: Arizona-31 Green Bay-21
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Inbox Time for Broncos!
I'll open the inbox and do a little question and answer session now that the Broncos season has ended. Instead of ranting and raving like many other Bronco fans, I'll try to take a look at the 2009 debacle by answering some of the essential questions that will linger from the ashes of another Bronco collapse. Here we go....
What happened to the Broncos defense down the stretch? Quite simply it wore down. This Bronco defense benefited from the element of scheme and surprise the first six games of the season. It relied on an attacking blitz scheme, timely sacks and turnovers, and getting off the field on third down. From the Baltimore game on, the Broncos got gashed in run defense. The two games that they played well against the run were victories over the Giants and Chiefs, and in both of those games, the offense gave the defense a comfortable lead. Ronnie Fields, Ryan McBean, and Kenny Peterson are rotational guys and not anchors up front. Their linebackers overpursued and didn't always stick to their responsibility. This is a not a great front seven and it got exposed and cut up down the stretch. The Broncos must address their front seven in the offseason.
Why was the offense so inconsistent this season? In this day and age in the NFL, averaging only 20 points a game is not going to get it done. One of the main reasons this offense failed to be consistent falls on two fronts. The first is their offensive line and the second is their QB. The O-Line really took a step back this year. They constantly killed drives with penalties, and they couldn't control the line of scrimmage in the run game. The Broncos couldn't run well at all down the stretch. The Raider game summarized everything that was wrong with the line. They couldn't get two yards for a game-clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter. In addition to the line play, the quarterback play was inconsistent. Kyle Orton played very well at times, but he got exposed against good defenses. He was ineffective and inconsistent against Baltimore, Indy, Philly, and the two home games against KC and Oakland. He also killed Denver against Pittsburgh. When you can't run the ball with any kind of real success, then a QB like Orton is going to struggle-especially in the red zone.
How would you grade the first draft class under Josh McDaniels? Give McDaniels credit for acknowledging that his first draft class was tough to take. He even admitted that they will be better prepared for the 2010 Draft in April. Knowshon Moreno gets a B. He will be a solid runner, and he will benefit from a rebuilt interior on the O-Line. Robert Ayers gets a D. The only highlight for him this year was scooping up a Ben Roethlisberger fumble and rumbling for a touchdown, and his Big Boss Man style body slam on Jamal Charles in Week 17 that resulted in a 15 yard personal foul. Alphonso Smith gets a D. The fact that he was benched in the nickel package for a retired Ty Law and undrafted rookie, Tyrone Carter, tells you all about how bad Smith was this season. Darcel McBath gets a B. He had two interceptions, played well on special teams, and looks like he could be a player in the secondary. Richard Quinn gets an INC. He barely played and when he did get in, he was either on special teams or blocked in the run game. David Bruton gets a B-. He was a contributor on special teams and played sparingly in the secondary at the end of the year. Seth Olsen gets an INC because he was basically inactive all season long. We'll look for him in 2010. Kenny McKinley gets a C. He did get a chance to return kicks at the end of the year, but he rarely got in the game a wideout. Tom Brandstater gets a INC because he didn't take a snap at all this year. He looks like he will be a career backup in the NFL. Overall, I give this draft class a C.
What happened to the Broncos homefield advantage? The Broncos finished 4-4 at home this year, including losses to KC and Oakland. Denver finished 4-4 at home in 2008, 5-3 at home in 2007, and 4-4 in 2006. Add it all up and Denver is a combined 17-15 at home since the start of the 2006 season. That is not good at all and not acceptable in Denver. The Broncos used to be a virtual lock to go at least 6-2 or 7-1 at home during any given season. I think the reason is two fold. First, Invesco Field, like other new stadiums across the league, is not as imposing as the old Mile High Stadium. Invesco is bigger but not necessarily louder then the old Mile High. Plus, with all the new club seats and luxury boxes, it attracts a different type of fan. There is a saying that Invesco attracts a more "Wine and cheese" type of crowd, whereas the old Mile High attracted the real football fan. There is some truth to that, but it is like that at other stadiums around the league too. The main reason Denver has been average at home is because the team is simply average and mediocre. The moment that Denver gets a really good team and playoff caliber team is the day that homefield advantage will return. Look at 2005 for the most recent example. Denver finished 8-0 at home during the regular season. It will be tough for opponents to win in Denver again once the Broncos get back to prominence.
Is Kyle Orton the QB of the future? Orton will most likely be back in 2010, but I don't know how many years he is going to have as the QB of the Broncos. He was effective this year, and he put up career numbers. Orton finished ranked 14th in the NFL in passer rating. The problem with Orton is that he is not a franchise level Quarterback. He is not a guy who can put his team on his back and win games on his own. Look at the 2009 Playoffs. The list of QBs on those teams are exceptional: Peyton, Rivers, Brady, Palmer, Warner, Rodgers, Romo, McNabb, Brees, and Favre. With the exception of Joe Flacco (Classic game manager with a great run game and defense) and Mark Sanchez (Great running game and superb defense), Orton is not the caliber of any of those QBs. You can win games with Kyle Orton but you won't win more than 8 or 9 games. Maybe once Orton can give you a 10 win season, but your team must have a great running game and a great defense. I would love to see Denver draft a QB in this year's draft. Whether it is in the first round or second round, I would love to see Denver select Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy or even my personal favorite Tim Tebow.
Will Brandon Marshall be back in Denver in 2010? If I had to give it a percentage I would say that it is 75-25 that Marshall will be somewhere else in 2010. Stranger things have happened but I doubt he will be a Bronco again. Two things could happen: If 2010 is uncapped, then he is a restricted free agent. Denver would give him a high tender, and when someone signs him, then Denver would receive a 1st and 3rd round pick. If a new CBA is reached by March, then Marshall becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Broncos could franchise him, and then trade him away for a deal that would probably include a 1st and 3rd round pick. Either way, Denver isn't going to just let him walk away for nothing, then intend on getting some valuable picks for him.
Who else will join Marshall out of Denver in 2010? Tony Scheffler definitely punched his ticket out of town. The same rules that apply for Marshall will apply for Scheffler. I could see Denver getting a 4th round pick for him. Ben Hamilton will be gone, Casey Wiegman could be gone, and Chris Kuper might go as well. Peyton Hillis might be joining them too, but hopefully McDaniels will keep him around for one more year. Vonnie Holliday could be gone too. Offensive line coach, Rick Dennison, might be headed to Washington or Houston, and Running Backs coach, Bobby Turner, could follow him there.
How would you grade Josh McDaniels after year one? McDaniels probably impressed me the most during his end of the year press conference. He seemed humbled and genuine in his desire to get better and improve as a head coach. He seemed determined to get this team back in the playoffs, and he seemed to acknowledge what he needs to do to get there. I was impressed by McDaniels a lot of times this season, but with any rookie head coach there is room for improvement and lessons learned. As I said before, I am impressed with his game planning, strategy and game management. I love his passion and enthusiasm. I like the fact that he will chew some players out for poor effort or performance. On the flip side, he has to be more of himself. He doesn't have to emulate everything that Bill Belichick did in New England. McDaniels has to develop his own true style. Also, he can't get into public spats with players. Hopefully, he learns a lot from this first season, and improve from it. You can't kill McDaniels on this first year. He got a lot out of this team, but he also couldn't stop the bleeding on a team that finished 2-8 and lost their last 4 games. I think the future is bright for McDaniels and the Broncos, but the pressure is definitely on in Year Two. I give him a final grade of a C+.
Is this season a complete failure? It isn't a complete failure because the expectations were not high, but anytime you start 6-0 and finish out of the playoffs at 8-8, it is disappointing and disheartening. As Bill Parcells always said "You are what your record says you are." Denver was an average team going into 2009, and they finished the season with an average record. They took some strides, but they also proved that they can't close out seasons when they are on the cusp of the playoffs. They didn't really close the gap on the Chargers, but proved that they can play with them on any given Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs will improve next year, and the Raiders will take a step back if they fire Tom Cable and keep JaMarcus Russell as their starting QB. This season isn't a complete failure, but it is a solid disappointment. If Denver makes the playoffs in 2010, then this season could be viewed as a learning experience and a building block.
PLAYOFF PREVIEW COMING FRIDAY!!!
Monday, January 4, 2010
Final Stats for 2009 Broncos
2009 Denver Broncos
Record: 8-8
Home: 4-4
Away: 4-4
Division: 3-3
Conference: 6-6
NFC: 2-2
Points Scored: 326 (20.3)
Points Against: 324 (20.2)
Passing:
Kyle Orton-
Attempts: 541
Completions: 336
Comp %: 62.1
Yards: 3,802
TD: 21
Int: 12
Rating: 86.8
Rushing:
Knowshon Moreno-
Rushes: 247
Yards: 947
TD: 7
Correll Buckhalter-
Rushes: 120
Yards: 642
TD: 1
Receiving:
Brandon Marshall-
Catches: 101
Yards: 1120
TD: 10
Jabar Gaffney-
Catches: 54
Yards: 732
TD: 2
Eddie Royal-
Catches: 37
Yards: 345
TD: 0
Tony Scheffler-
Catches: 31
Yards: 416
TD: 2
Buckhalter-
Catches: 31
Yards: 240
TD: 0
Moreno-
Catches: 28
Yards: 213
TD: 2
Daniel Graham-
Catches: 28
Yards: 289
TD: 1
Brandon Stokley-
Catches: 19
Yards: 327
TD: 4
Kicking:
Matt Prater-
XP: 32/32
FG:30/35
Sacks:
Elvis Dumervil: 17
Vonnie Holliday: 5
Darrell Reid: 4
DJ Williams: 3.5
Andra Davis: 3.5
Interceptions:
Andre Goodman: 5
Champ Bailey: 3
Renaldo Hill: 2
Brian Dawkins: 2
Darcel McBath: 2
Ty Law: 1
Wesley Woodyard: 1
Playoffs and End of Year Review
The most shocking development of Week 17 was not the results, but the fact that the NFL changed the Playoff Scheduling Format. The NFL changed the rotation of wild card weekend and it threw everything off. Normally, FOX and CBS will flip flop every year the times that they get for the Sunday. This year the NFL flipped the switch and changed the rotational schedule. Also, the other big factor was the fact that NBC wanted and got the Dallas-Philly game. By doing that, FOX couldn't put Arizona-Green Bay at 1:00pm EST on Sunday because the game is in Arizona. Therefore, the NFL made a big decision and scrapped the rotational schedule and put Arizona-GB at 4:oopm EST and gave CBS the early game (NE/Balt) for the second year in a row. We'll see what the Divisional Schedule looks like because now all bets are off with the format. Here is the Wild Card Weekend Schedule:
Saturday 1/9/2010
4:oo pm-NBC (Tom Hammond, Joe Gibbs, and Joe Theismann)
AFC Wild Card Game
(5) NY Jets at (4) Cincinnati
8:00 pm-NBC (Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth)
NFC Wild Card Game
(6) Philadelphia at (3) Dallas
Sunday 1/10/2010
1:oo pm-CBS (Jim Nantz and Phil Simms)
AFC Wild Card Game
(6) Baltimore at (3) New England
4:oo pm-FOX (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman)
NFC Wild Card Game
(5) Green Bay at (4) Arizona
A few other notes about the playoff matchups:
1) 3 of the games are rematches from Week 17. I think that you throw out what happened in those games (Victories by GB, Dallas, and NY Jets). New England and Baltimore each played each other earlier in the year as well.
2) Baltimore returns to the postseason for the second year in a row. New England makes their 7th playoff appearance since 2001.
3) Green Bay returns to playoffs for the first time since the 2007 NFC Title Game.
4) Arizona makes its' second straight playoff appearance.
5) The Jets make their first playoff appearance since 2006, and they are looking for their first playoff win since 2004. The Bengals are making their first playoff appearance since 2005, and they are seeking their first playoff win since 1990.
6) Philly makes the playoffs for the 8th time since 2000. The Cowboys are back in the playoffs for the third time in four years and are seeking their first playoff win since 1996.
7) I went 7 for 12 in my playoff predictions for 2009. I correctly predicted Indy, SD, NE, and Cincy in the AFC. I got Philly, Dallas, and Green Bay in the NFC. I predicted the following teams as division champs: NE, Indy, and San Diego. I will have a complete breakdown of my predictions sometime this offseason, probably in February.
8) Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2008, 6 returned to the playoffs and 6 new teams qualified. Here are the 6 that returned to the playoffs in 2009: Indy, SD, Baltimore, Philly, Arizona, and Minnesota. Here are the 6 teams that made it in 2008 that didn't make it in 2009: NY Giants (8-8), Atlanta (9-7), Carolina (8-8), Miami (7-9), Pittsburgh (9-7), and Tennessee (8-8). The 6 teams that made the playoffs that didn't make it in 2008 are: NY Jets, Cincy, NE, New Orleans, Dallas, and Green Bay. Of the 8 Division winners from 2008 only 3 repeated from 2008: San Diego in the AFC West, Arizona in the NFC West and Minnesota in the NFC North.
Broncos 2010 Opponents Set
With the conclusion of the 2009 season in my rearview mirror, here is the list of the Broncos 2010 opponents. Of course, the dates will be released by the NFL in April.
Home: Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Seattle, NY Jets
Away: Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Arizona, San Francisco, Baltimore
Away: Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Arizona, San Francisco, Baltimore
Some notes on the opponents for 2010:
1-Denver gets to host former Bronco Alum, Gary Kubiak as Denver will host Houston for the first time since 2004.
2-Peyton Manning makes a visit to Denver for the first time since 2006.
3-Denver heads to Baltimore for the second consecutive season.
4-The Broncos host the Jets for the first time since 2005.
5-Denver heads for Arizona for the second time in second time in four years and hosts Seattle for the second time in four years.
Broncos Finish 8-8 Once Again
The 2009 Denver Broncos ended the season basically the same way the 2008 Broncos ended their season. The Broncos 44-24 thrashing at the hands of the 3-12 Kansas City Chiefs sent them whimpering into the offseason and out of the playoff picture for the fourth season in a row. Consider these facts: 1) Denver started 6-0, but finished just 2-8. Their record over that 10 game span was the worst since 1967. 2) Denver is the third team since the merger to start 6-0 and miss the playoffs. 3) Denver missed the playoffs for the 4th straight season, which is the longest stretch since 1973-1976- or in this case before I was born for Christ's sake. 4) Denver was 7-2 in 2006 and finished 9-7 to miss the playoffs, they were 8-5 and finished 8-8 in 2008, and they were standing at 8-4 and lost their last four to finish 8-8. 5) Denver lost to all three division rivals (KC, Oakland, and SD) at home. 6) Denver finished 4-4 at home for the second year in a row.
The bottom line is that those are the facts. The facts state that this is the worst four year period in my lifetime as a Broncos fan. Three collapses in four years, coaching changes, quarterback carousel, and a lack of big game and crunchtime mentality. The key for this franchise going forward is to build on the core group of guys going forward and discard the various members of players from these last few years of disappointment. The Broncos need to build to around the following core guys: Clady, Harris, Kuper, Moreno, Graham, Orton (probably), Hillis (hopefully), Royal, Gaffney, DJ, Champ, Dawkins, McBath and Dumervil (hopefully). Guys like Marshall, Scheffler, Hamilton, and Weigmann should and probably will go the way of Jay Cutler- out the door. There will be plenty of time to dissect who will stay and who will go. We'll go over that plenty in the offseason.
As far as Josh McDaniels goes, let me say this: I like McDaniels, and I truly believe that he will be a very good head coach in the NFL. I really hope it is during his time in Denver. He is a good offensive mind, good gameplanner, and he is very good at clock management and understanding possessions in a game. Unlike many head coaches around the league, he does a great job understanding situations and managing the game. His biggest hurdle will be to overcome his potential ego and issues he has had with some popular players like Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Tony Scheffler. Hopefully, he has a plan in place. Hopefully, he will be able to be not just a great play-caller, but also have the ability to build a team, acquire and draft the right players, and become a true leader of the organization. I will end with this: The Denver Broncos are a class organization. This franchise has been to 6 Super Bowls, 8 AFC Title Games, and won 2 Super Bowls. It has a fantastic owner who wants to win and will do whatever it takes to win a title. A year in which a new regime takes over and finished 8-8 is not exactly the end of the road, it is just the beginning. The Broncos will be back. I know it is a rough time, but give Pat Bowlen and Josh McDaniels a chance. Let's wait before we jump off the cliff. The Broncos are down, but it is 2010. It is a new decade and a new start for the organization. The Broncos will be back. This team and this franchise will rise from the mess of the past four years and become contenders a lot sooner than people may expect.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Week 17 Picks
Before we get to the picks for Week 17, I think that Sunday will not be a wild and wacky season finale that people get accustomed to. Last year, Week 17 provided some major drama with Tampa Bay losing to hapless Oakland, which led to the Eagles beating the Cowboys in a play-in game. 2006, saw KC getting in when Denver, Cincy, and Tennessee all lost. In 2003, Minnesota lost to 3-12 Arizona, which enabled Green Bay to enter the playoffs. 2002 saw the Jets win the AFC East in stunning fashion because New England somehow beat Miami after being down late in the game. In other words, strange things take place in Week 17. Unfortunately, the NFL won't get that drama again this year. The Eagles will battle it out with Dallas for the NFC East, but both teams are assured a playoff spot. I can't see Minnesota losing at home to the Giants, who are out of playoff contention. Arizona and Green Bay play each other this week, and they will most likely face off next week in the Wild Card Round. Baltimore has a layup on the road in Oakland, so they will clinch one of the wild cards. Normally, the Jets would blow the game against Cincy with a chance to get in, but the Bengals are going to rest their starters, so the Jets will waltz in the postseason. With that said here is what the Playoffs should look like come the end of Week 17:
AFC
1- Indy
2-San Diego
3-New England
4-Cincy
5- NY Jets
6-Baltimore
Wild Card Round
Saturday 8:00pm 1/9/2010
6-Baltimore at 3-New England
Sunday 4:oopm 1/10/2010
5-NY Jets at 4-Cincy
Divisional Round
Saturday 8:oopm 1/16/2010
NE, Cincy, or NY Jets at 2-San Diego
Sunday 1:oopm 1/17/2010
Baltimore, NY Jets, or NE at 1-Indy
NFC
1-New Orleans
2-Philly
3-Minnesota
4-Arizona
5-Green Bay
6-Dallas
Wild Card Round
Saturday 4:00pm
5-Green Bay at 4-Arizona
Sunday 1:00pm
6-Dallas at 3-Minnesota
Divisional Weekend
Saturday 4:00pm
GB,Arizona, or Dallas at 1-New Orleans
Sunday 4:oopm
Arizona, Dallas, or Minnesota at 2-Philly
Onto to picks for Week 17.....
Last Week's Record: 4-12
Overall Record: 111-122-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
BUFFALO (-3) over Indy: I hope the Colts lose in their first playoff game. They sit everyone in frosty Buffalo as the Bills prepare for a new regime.
CAROLINA (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints will sit Drew Brees. Wow, this is great for the NFL. I can't wait for the 18 game season, and the final three weeks of the season are meaningless. By the way, I like Matt Moore as the QB for Carolina, and John Fox should keep his job, while Jake Delhomme loses his job.
Jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND: The Jags will finish 8-8, and the Browns will start a new era with Mike Holmgren as General Manager.
Philly (+3) over DALLAS: Toughest game on the board, but I think Philly is playing the best out of all the NFC contenders. This should be a fun one. The Cowboys will be dangerous in the playoffs.
Chicago (-3) over DETROIT: Finally, Jay Cutler came alive in a 4 touchdown performance over the Vikings on MNF. Will Lovie Smith make it to 2010?
HOUSTON (-7) over New England: The Texans finish at 9-7 and save Gary Kubiak's job for another year. The Pats get ready to make in a run the playoffs. Watch out for NE because nobody is talking about them.
Pittsburgh (-2) over MIAMI: The Steelers win and pray for some help to make the playoffs. The Fish finish sloppy, but will be primed to get back into playoff contention next year.
MINNESOTA (-7) over NY GIANTS: The G-Men will put forth a good effort, but Minnesota gets some momentum going for the playoffs.
NY JETS (-7) over Cincy: The Jets get another gift as they beat the Bengals' backups on SNF. It will be a different story come playoff time- trust me on that one.
San Francisco (-6) over ST.LOUIS: The Rams will get the number one pick in 2010.
Atlanta (-2) over TAMPA BAY: The Falcons end at 9-7.
ARIZONA (-2) over Green Bay: These two will square off in the playoffs next week.
Baltimore (-8) over OAKLAND: The Ravens get into the tournament.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Washington: The Chargers get ready for a run to the Super Bowl. The Skins get ready for Mike Shanahan.
Tennessee (-6) over SEATTLE: Will Chris Johnson get 2,000 yards?
Kansas City (+10) over DENVER: The Chiefs end Denver's season in disappointment. Final Score: Chiefs-19 Denver-10
Broncos Limp to Finish Line
We knew that the Broncos needed a minor miracle to make the playoffs this weekend, but the fact that Josh McDaniels has benched Brandon Marshall for Sunday's game really puts a damper on their playoff hopes. Apparently, Marshall wasn't sure if he was going to be able to play this week after tweaking his hamstring on Wednesday. McDaniels made the decision for him by making him inactive this week because he felt that Marshall wasn't being accountable and reluctant to play in the game. Talk about a downer. How could you get excited about Denver's chances this week? By benching Marshall, McDaniels has taken away the one slimmer of hope that they had to win this week. The Bronco offense is average at best with Marshall, and now McD has taken the best player out of the game. Why not just announce that Marshall is a game-time decision? McDaniels obviously has an agenda and he is sending a message. McDaniels said that everyone has to be accountable and willing to fight as a team. Apparently, Marshall has not held up his end of the bargain. Tony Scheffler has also been benched for this week's game based on attitude issues. Clearly, McDaniels doesn't really care about the whole playoff situation because he is intent on sending a message to his football team. Unfortunately, for Bronco fans his message has to be sent this week, the last week of the season with the playoffs on the line. McDaniels did a nice job of handling the Marshall situation from the outset, but McD made a mistake here. By challenging Marshall in front of the media and the fans is a mistake, and it is a mistake that will eventually lead to Marshall's exit from Denver. McDaniels has done a nice job in his first year. He is a good game planner, good clock and game manager. He is enthusiastic and energetic, but his inability to communicate to his players will doom him. He really has taken a lot of the players to task this week, and he has thrown some other players under the bus as well. McDaniels has a lot to learn by being a head coach, and he is developing a sort of Napoleon complex. His ego is getting in the way of what could be a successful run in Denver. Running guys like Marshall, Scheffler, Peyton Hillis, and even line coach Rick Dennison out of town is not the way to go. This could be the biggest flaw in McDaniels coaching career in Denver. Whatever happens on Sunday, 2010 has not started out any better for Denver that 2009 did. Happy New Year!
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