Steelers-Ravens Week 4 TNF Pick!

Baltimore (-2) over PITTSBURGH: One of the best rivalries in the NFL takes center stage on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens come into Pittsburgh at 0-3. There is no way that they will start 0-4? Right? The Steelers have to go on without Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the next 4-6 weeks due to a MCL injury. Thursday night Michael Vick gets the start, and he has a chance to give himself one more moment in his career. I think this game is close-as they usually are-but I just can't see the Ravens losing and going 0-4.

Broncos Put Lions Away, Secure 24-12 Victory

Much like the 2015 season has played out, the Broncos defeated the Lions 24-12 in Week 3 on Sunday Night Football. The Broncos improved to 3-0 on the season. Denver's win was hard fought, erratic at times, and once again dominated by their defense. The offense and Peyton Manning looked more comfortable at times, and it seems like the offense was progressing more than it has all year long. It was a good, solid win on the road, and the Broncos have successfully navigated their tricky start to the year undefeated. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game....

1) The Broncos defense started off on fire once again. They forced a quick 3 and out on the first two series. Demarcus Ware was all over the place in the 1st quarter. Bradley Roby made a ridiculous interception early in the game off of Matthew Stafford, and it just seems like this defense has a knack for creating the turnover at the right time.

2) Unfortunately, the Broncos couldn't convert because Peyton Manning's pass was tipped and intercepted deep in Detroit territory. It was a shame because Manning was looking to get it to a wide open Owen Daniels, who would have walked in for a surefire touchdown.

3) Denver puts together a sweet 12-play 80 yard TD drive capped off by a Ronnie Hillman 1 yard run. Manning looked good, comfortable, confident, and solid on the drive.  Bennie Fowler made some big catches to keep the drive going.

4) Lions respond with a TD drive that was basically all Calvin Johnson. That is going to happen when you have a player like Megatron on the opposing team. The Broncos blocked the extra point and held the lead at 7-6.

5) Manning makes them pay with a 45 yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas on a 4th and 1 with only 6 seconds left in the half. It was an interesting call by Gary Kubiak to go for it and finally Manning hit a deep bomb this year. It was a jump ball, and Thomas made a sweet catch and run to give the Broncos a 14-6 lead heading into the half.

6) Terrible play by Demaryius Thomas on 3rd down on Denver's first possession of the half. Careless play with the football as he was trying to stretch it into a first down and it results in a turnover. Detroit converted it with an Ameer Abdullah touchdown reception from Stafford. The two-point conversion failed and it was 14-12 Denver in the 3rd quarter.

7)  The teams traded punts until the Broncos defense made another key play. In the 4th quarter, Shaq Barrett strip-sacked Stafford and forced a fumble that Denver recovered at their own 44. This turnover led to a long Brandon McManus field goal and a 17-12 lead.

8) The Broncos defense made another big play when David Bruton picked off Stafford at the Broncos 48 with only 3:44 to go. Bruton made a great play as he lined up close to the line like a linebacker and dropped into coverage on the snap and made a great pick on Stafford.

9) The Broncos made the Lions pay on the next drive. Manning hit another long pass-this time to Emmanuel Sanders- for a gain of 34 yards. It was another jump ball type of play and Sanders snagged it out of air, but it was a confidence booster for Manning to get another long pass completion under his belt. A few plays later, Manning sealed the game with a sweet 11 yard touchdown pass to Owen Daniels. Manning saw the blitz by the Lions, changed the protection, got rid of the ball quick, and put it in the perfect spot to Daniels for the game-clincher. That is why Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning.

10) You have to take your hat off to the defense once again. They got four sacks and forced three turnovers. The amount of pressure they apply in every game is remarkable. They were all over the place. Demarcus Ware looks like he is 25 again. Von Miller was a factor as well. Sylvester Williams played solid, and Brandon Marshall was outstanding as usual. Aqib Talib did as good as a job on Calvin Johnson as you can. They held the Lions leading rusher to only 23 yards on the ground. I never felt like this defense wasn't going to make a play to win this game. They are playing at a high level right now.

11) Peyton Manning played well. It was his best performance of the season, and it was probably his best game going back to November of last year. He finished 31-42 for 324 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He was decisive, threw the ball well, looked comfortable, and he looked confident. Give Gary Kubiak and the offensive staff credit. They adjusted the offense for this week. It featured Manning in the pistol, and they gave him quick throws and let him throw on the early downs. The offensive line protected better, and it showed. Manning also hit two big deep balls and if he continues to hit those, then the offense will open up even more. They still struggled to run the ball, and that is a still a big concern, but the offense generated 24 points on the road against a desperate opponent. It was a positive week for the offense without a doubt.

12) The Broncos survived another road game and they get their record to 3-0. They could have easily lost the Baltimore game in Week 1, but they pulled it out. They should have lost Week 2 in KC, but we know how that miracle played out. This game they were the better team throughout. I never really felt like they were going to lose the game at any point. With all the changes and the question marks, the Broncos stand at 3-0, and head home to host the Vikings next Sunday. You have to be happy with that if you are a Broncos fan.

Week 2 Picks!

This is a desperate week for the 0-2 teams in the NFL. Teams like the Eagles, Ravens, Lions, Saints, and Colts never thought they would be in this spot. You can survive 0-2 in the NFL and rebound to possibly make the playoffs, but it is VERY HARD to survive 0-3. It will be very interesting to see what happens with those teams when they play this week. The desperate teams usually win in those situations because they know that falling to 0-3 is pretty much the death shot to their season. Now, onto the picks for Week 3....


Last Week's Record: 6-10
Overall Record: 13-19
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ST. LOUIS (+2) over Pittsburgh: I think this could be a very fun and entertaining game, but I will take the Rams and their defense at home to overwhelm the Steelers. I know the Rams took a step back with their loss at Washington last week, but look for them to bounce back at home as an underdog.

San Diego (+3) over MINNESOTA: Tough game to figure out. Both teams come in at 1-1, and we really don't know how good each team is. I'll take Phillip Rivers on the road to pull out a close one.

Tampa Bay (+7) over HOUSTON: I think the Texans will win the game, but I'll take the Bucs to cover. Houston has real problems at QB right now. Ryan Mallett didn't exactly light it up after replacing Brian Hoyer in Carolina in Week 2. I can see Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay keeping this game close.

NY JETS (-2.5) over Philly: This game could not come at a worse time for the Eagles. Their offense is a mess right now, they can't run the ball, Sam Bradford looks scared, and now they have to go on the road and deal with a Jets defense that has forced 10 turnovers in two games and just walloped Andrew Luck and the Colts on Monday Night Football. The Jets will get to 3-0 and the Eagles will fall to 0-3.

CAROLINA (-7) over New Orleans: This all depends if Drew Brees plays or not. You have to be worried about the Saints-especially if Brees misses some time with a shoulder injury. If Brees is healthy enough to play, then the Saints have a chance. If he is out, then the Panthers will get to 3-0.

Jacksonville (+14) over NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots will game the game easily, but I hate huge spreads in a game like this. I could see a late back door cover by the Jags, but in any event the Pats will roll.

BALTIMORE (-2) over Cincy: The Ravens are a surprising 0-2, and the Bengals come to town at 2-0. Could the Bengals be the real AFC contender next to the Pats? This game could have a say in that. I just can't see the Ravens falling to 0-3.

CLEVELAND (-2) over Oakland: Both of these teams look hapless in Week 1, and both of them rebounded in Week 2 with solid home wins. Tough game to call, but I'll take the Browns-even after going back to Josh McCown over Johnny Manziel-because I hate taking the Raiders in the early spot in another time zone.

TENNESSEE (+4) over Indy: The Colts will win, but I think the Titans put up a serious fight. I think Andrew Luck pulls this game out late on a last minute drive, but this will be close throughout. Call it 22-21 Indy.

Atlanta (-1) over DALLAS: When you lose Dez Bryant and Tony Romo to significant injury, it has to take a toll on your offense and your team. Plus, we know where DeMarco Murray is playing right now. Until Brandon Weeden can prove it to me, I can't ride the Cowboys. I like what I have seen out of Atlanta too. Take the Falcons as a road favorite.

ARIZONA (-6) over San Francisco: Could Arizona be a legitimate NFC contender this year? It looks like it through two weeks. I can't see them blowing this game at home over a division rival like the 49ers. I think the Niners came back down to Earth last week in their blowout loss to the Steelers.

SEATTLE (-14) over Chicago: Kam Chancellor ends his holdout. The Seahawks are 0-2 after two tough road losses to start the year. This is their first home game in front of the 12th Man, and they are in need of a win. Oh yeah, Jimmy Clausen is starting for the injured Jay Cutler. I think I'll take Seattle.

Buffalo (+3) over Miami: This is the toughest game for me to pick this week. Both teams come in at 1-1 after disappointing Week 2 losses. Both teams are pretty good, so this game could go either way. I'll take the Dolphins to win in their home opener, but this will be a close game throughout, so I'll take the Bills getting the points.

GREEN BAY (-6) over Kansas City: A rematch of Super Bowl I! It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs will respond after their crushing loss on Thursday Night Football to the Broncos in Week 2.This is a tough way to rebound for them because they have to head to Lambeau to take on the 2-0 Packers. I can't see Green Bay losing this game at home, and they have been pretty dominant at home the last two years, so I would expect that trend to continue this week on Monday Night Football.

DETROIT (+3) over Denver: The Broncos are 2-0, yet they could easily be 0-2. What we know about the Broncos at this point in the season is the following: Their defense is really, really good. They have a dominant pass rush, they can cover, and they force turnovers. Their offensive line is struggling in every aspect. They have no running game at all. Peyton Manning clearly looks more comfortable running the no-huddle, quick passing attack that he is accustomed to. Now, Denver has to travel to Detroit to take on the 0-2 Lions on Sunday night. I just think that the Lions are more desperate right now, and they will find a way to win this game. I know Matt Stafford is banged up, but I don't think the Lions are starting 0-3. I think they find a way at home in front of a jacked up crowd.

Final Score: Lions-24 Broncos-17

Giants-Redskins Thursday Night Football Week 3 Pick!

NY GIANTS (-3) over Washington: The Giants are 0-2 after blowing 10 point leads in the 4th quarter at Dallas in Week 1 and at home to Atlanta on Sunday. It is crisis time surrounding the team, Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. All hope is not loss though because with a win here over the Redskins, the G-Men can get their season on track before it possibly falls off the rails. As shaky as the Giants are at this point, I think they are more desperate and will turn back the 1-1 Skins on a short week in the Meadowlands.

Broncos Stun the Chiefs Late and Week 2 Picks

Thursday night's Broncos-Chiefs game will be remembered for many different reasons. The wild finish saw Denver tie the game at 24 with only 36 seconds left, and then Bradley Roby scooped up a Jamaal Charles fumble and scampered 21 yards to win the game 31-24. The game also saw Peyton Manning's career at a crossroad, Andy Reid botching play-calling and game management, and the Chiefs gagging away a game that they never should have lost. This game had everything, and it was about as wild of an ending as you will ever see. Denver rallied from a 14-0 hole in the first half, and Manning drove the Broncos down for the tie late in the game. In a game where Denver probably should have lost, they somehow and someway found a way to win-thanks to Chiefs, of course. Here are my thoughts and observations on a game that will be remembered for a long, long time....

1) The Broncos started slow and they paid for it as the Chiefs built a 7-0 lead on the legs of Jamaal Charles. After Marcus Peters picked off Manning and returned it 55 yards for a touchdown, KC led 14-0, and the game looked like it would be a rout. Manning looked like he was done as an effective QB, and the Broncos season looked like it was going to crumble like their offensive line was crumbling in the first half.

2) Things changed quickly once Manning went to a no-huddle approach and picked up the pace of play. He started completing more passes in the shotgun, got more comfortable, and drove Denver down the field and made it 14-7 after a 16 yard pass to Emmanuel Sanders. That might have saved Manning and the Broncos season right there.

3) Up 14-7, the Chiefs and Andy Reid decided to throw the ball instead of killing the clock on the ground, and Aqib Talib made them pay by jumping a short route and picking it off deep in KC territory. Talib has been great so far this year, and this play was sensational. A Manning to Virgil Green 1 yard touchdown pass tied it up at 14, and now we have a game going into halftime.

4) The third quarter was basically a standstill as both teams traded field goals. Both defenses were able to disrupt the other team's passing games and Smith and Manning were having trouble surviving everytime they dropped back. You still felt the momentum was on the Chiefs side heading into the last quarter.

5) The Broncos defense was bending in the 4th quarter and a interception by Chris Harris looked like it was going to save the day for Denver. Unfortunately, the Broncos offense sputtered and KC got the ball right back and Knile Davis galloped into the end zone to make it 24-17 with only 2:15 to play.

6) Peyton Manning showed the world that he is not done yet, and the Sherriff went to work on a classic 10 play 80 yard drive to tie the game on a 19 yard hookup with Emmanuel Sanders to tie it at 24. Manning was clutch on the drive and so was Demaryius Thomas who made some amazing jump ball catches on the drive. Thomas finished with 8 catches for 116 yards in the night. It was a statement drive by Manning and this offense and something that a lot of people did not think Denver's offense could do at that point in the game against a hostile crowd in Arrowhead.

7) Then, the Broncos got the gift of all time. KC is trying to run out the clock and get the get to overtime, but Jamaal Charles coughs up the ball on a hit by Brandon Marshall, and Bradley Roby is right there to scoop it up and run in for the winning score with only 27 seconds left in the game. Incredible finish. I had to rewind it live on DVR just to make sure I wasn't dreaming. That was one of the craziest endings I have ever seen in a Broncos game in my lifetime.

8) The storylines in this game are numerous, but let's start with the defense. They played great again for a second week. They forced 4 turnovers (2 interceptions and 2 fumbles), scored another defensive touchdown, recorded 4 sacks, and harassed Alex Smith all night long. Yes, they did give up 125 yards to Jamaal Charles, but that doesn't bother me because of the short week of rest for this game. The defense is the strength of this team, and that is the reality at this point.

9) The Broncos offense is a work in progress, but the real culprit is that the offensive line is really struggling. They can't run the ball because their O-Line can't block anyone. They can't pass protect and they are getting Manning killed right now. They gave up 3 sacks last night, and he was pressured a lot more. This offense won't get going until the offensive line gets more consistent. No one really knows how long that will take.

10) Now to Manning. This isn't about his arm strength. This is not about his offense or Gary Kubiak's offense. This is about getting him comfortable. You saw how well he played when the offense was tailored to what made him comfortable. Just let him run the quick, no-huddle pace of play that he likes to throw. Let him get into a rhythm, and let him get off quick passes to get the passing game going and settle down the offensive line. Then, once they get a lead they can work more under center and run the ball-if they can. Just let Manning be Manning please!

11) Forget about the issues the Broncos have because they are 2-0 and they just won a tough road game at KC in a game they were destined to lose. Now, they have 10 days to rest up and get ready for the Lions next Sunday Night. The win also gave the Broncos a NFL record 13 straight road divisional wins breaking the mark by the 1990 Niners. Manning is now 4-0 in Arrowhead against the Chiefs as the Broncos QB. This game will long be remembered, and it might be the turning point of the season even though it was only Week 2. Go Broncos!

Onto the picks for Week 2...

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Overall Record: 7-9
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Houston (+3) over CAROLINA:

Tampa Bay (+10) over NEW ORLEANS:

PITTSBURGH (-6) over San Francisco:

Detroit (+3) over MINNESOTA:

New England (-1) over BUFFALO:

CHICAGO (+3) over Arizona:

CLEVELAND (+2) over Tennessee:

San Diego (+4) over CINCY:

St. Louis (-3) over WASHINGTON:

Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:

Baltimore (-5) over Oakland:

Miami (-6) over JACKSONVILLE:

PHILLY (-3) over Dallas:

GREEN BAY (-3) over Seattle:

INDY (-7) over New York Jets:

Week 2 Thursday Night Pick: Broncos-Chiefs

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver: Brace yourselves Bronco fans because this is going to be a rough one. A fired up Chiefs team is at home and licking their chops at a chance to get to 2-0 win a win over their rival on a short week with a banged up 39 year old quarterback. I'm not try to sell the Broncos short here, but I would be SHOCKED if they won this game. This has all the makings of a beatdown. It doesn't mean the season will be a disaster, but this will be a very tough game for Denver to win-especially after the physical nature of Sunday's win over the Ravens. Denver has won their last four games in a row at Arrowhead, but this will be a tall order.

Final Score:

Chiefs-27 Broncos-10

Broncos Outlast Ravens 19-13 in Season Opening Win

It was an old fashioned defensive slugfest at Mile High on Sunday, and the Broncos outlasted the Ravens 19-13 to win the 2015 season debut. This was not the same Broncos we have seen in the Peyton Manning era. This game was won by the Broncos defense, and in the process it showed the rest of the NFL what we have suspected about this version of the Denver Broncos: The defense is the strength of this team now. A late, game-saving interception in the end zone by newly acquired Darian Stewart sealed the victory as the Broncos begin the season 1-0. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game....

1) The story about this game will be about Peyton Manning. What did we see from Manning and the offense? It is indeed a work in progress. Manning's numbers were not classic Peyton type numbers: 24-40 for 175 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception for a passer rating of 59.9. We saw some of the same things that troubled Manning at the end of last season: He was just out of touch on some deep passes, he missed some wide-open receivers, and he looked uncomfortable at times. He ran a bootleg on the first drive and Demaryius Thomas wide open and missed him badly. There were some good signs for Manning and the offense. He did look fine and solid at times on some throws-particularly in the middle of the field and short passes. The offense got stymied by some penalties on some drives as well. The last drive was a good drive in which they took time off the clock and moved the ball effectively enough to give them a 19-13 lead. Look, the offense is a work in progress, and I wouldn't bury Manning or the new scheme just yet. As long as Manning can remain healthy,  give it some time, and I think the offense will work itself out.

2) The other parts of the offense that didn't seem to work were the lack of running game and the inability to protect Manning. It seemed like Gary Kubiak didn't even attempt to try to line up and run the ball with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman until the last drive of the game. There wasn't the classic "Zone" style running game that we were looking forward to all offseason. They actually ran so many plays from the shotgun that it looked like the offense that Manning was running the last three years in Denver. Also, Denver's offensive line has four new starters and it showed. Manning got sacked four times and he was pressured and hit throughout. The Broncos have to get their offensive line issues fixed as soon as possible if this offense is going to get going.

3) Forget about the offense for a minute because the defense stole the show. They harassed, beat up and dominated the Ravens offense. Demarcus Ware and Von Miller were all over Joe Flacco all game long. The secondary played great, and Brandon Marshall picked up where he left off last year as he was all over the field. It seems like they are really buying into Wade Phillips new scheme. The story of this team right now is the defense.

4) After stifling the Ravens offense and Flacco through three quarters, the Broncos found themselves down 13-9 late in the third quarter. Aqib Talib made his biggest play of his Bronco career by stepping in front of a Flacco pass and picking it off and returning it 51 yards and a touchdown to give Denver the 16-13 lead. That was already one of the biggest plays of the Broncos season and we are only one game in.

5) You knew the Ravens wouldn't go quietly into the night and it took a great play by Darian Stewart to seal the victory. He literally took the ball away from Ravens TE Crockett Gilmore's hand in the end zone with time running out. It was fitting that the defense made the play to win the game.

6) Brandon McManus was great yesterday as well. He nailed four field goals including two from 57 and 57 yards. As long as he is consistent, then he will be a huge factor this season for the Broncos.

7) The debut of Gary Kubiak was good in my opinion. I thought his game management, clock management and overall decision making was fine. No issues there in Kubiak's first game as Broncos coach.

8) This was a great team win for the Broncos. No matter how you slice it, a win is a win. It was a tough game against a very good opponent. The defense played great, made the plays to win the game, and you take it and move on. You don't have to apologize for being 1-0 at this point. There are 16 teams who would like to be 1-0 at this point too.

9) This will be a tough week as Denver has to rebound quickly and play at Kansas City on Thursday night. The Broncos just played a very physical game on Sunday, there are a bunch of guys banged up and sore, and now they have to get to ready for a really tough game on a short week. This will be a very difficult game for the Broncos to win on Thursday.

Broncos-Ravens Season Opener Preview and 2015 Storylines

On the eve of the 2015 Broncos season, now is the time to look at the biggest storylines heading into this year. These are the key components that will dictate whether the Broncos are holding up the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 50, or if they will be lamenting another year without a championship. Let's take a look at the Broncos key storylines heading into the season followed by a pick for Week 1 between Denver and the Ravens.

Storylines for the 2015 season:

1) The Sheriff's Last Ride: Peyton Manning returned for his fourth season as a Bronco, and although there was some speculation from Manning about retiring, the "Sheriff" decided to return. How much Manning has left in the tank at 39 years old and how he fits with new head coach Gary Kubiak's scheme are the two biggest questions with him as this year commences. I think the focus should be on the level of play from Manning. I'm not worried about his health or adapting to a new offense, I wonder about his level of play declining. There was an obvious difference between his play from the first 8 games last year to the last 8 games, and that was before he got injured in San Diego in Week 15. Maybe time has finally caught up with Manning, but we will see. If Manning plays the way he did in the first eight games last year, then the Broncos will be a Super Bowl threat. If he plays the way he did the last eight games, then the Broncos could be in some trouble.

2) Kubiak Comes Home: Gary Kubiak comes back to Denver this time as the head coach. It is cool to see Kubiak roaming the sideline once again in Broncos apparel. It just feels right. He has a lot of live up after John Fox put together four straight AFC West titles, an AFC Championship, and three straight years of at least 12 wins, but we know that was not all Fox's doing. I think Kubiak can be the right fit for this team. It was obvious they needed a change after the way they limped out of the playoffs against the Colts last year. I think that Kubiak was successful enough in Houston to give the Broncos hope that he can take them over the hump.

3) Orange Crush: Quietly, the strength of the Broncos is their defense. There is a lot of depth at linebacker, their secondary is very solid, and their defensive line is very versatile. Although they will be without DE Derek Wolfe for the first four games and T.J. Ward for Week 1, the Broncos defense should be able to be a dominant unit. New DC Wade Phillips has a reputation for getting the most out of his defenses, and I think his hire was one of the most important moves the Broncos made this offseason. By the way, the Broncos pass rush consists of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller with rookie Shane Ray, the underrated Malik Jackson, and up-and-comer Shaq Barrett. Look out. If the Broncos are winning games by the scores of 17-13 or 13-3, then don't be surprised or upset.

4) Window Closed? The Broncos enter 2015 in a different spot for the first time in four years. They are not considered one of the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. A lot of experts think the Broncos window was closed shut after the humiliating loss to the Colts last year in the Divisional Playoffs. I think the lack of expectations might be a good thing for the Broncos. Let everyone pick the Colts. Allow the experts to ride the Patriots. It's okay if all the analysts take the Ravens or the Steelers. As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, then the Broncos window is not closed. Plus, they have put together a solid roster from top to bottom. Watch out for the Broncos as they sort of lay in the weeds in the AFC.


Week 1 Pick:

Baltimore (+5) over DENVER: This is going to be a tough game for the Broncos. Naturally, there will be some adjustment for Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak as they try to install both of their offensive schemes and ideas. A young and inexperienced offensive line will be challenged by a pass rush from the Ravens that features Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Joe Flacco is always a threat for the Ravens, and Denver will be without the suspended Derek Wolfe and T.J. Ward on defense. This game seems like a nail-biter and a very tough opener for the Broncos-even at home.

Final Score:
Ravens-24 Broncos-17

Week 1 Picks!

Here we go with Week 1 picks. A few things about Week 1: Expect some surprising upsets, sloppy play all around, and just try to stay afloat with your picks because Week 1 is not a real microcosm of the season. Last year, I was a horrific 4-12 after Week 1, so let's hope I get off to a better start this year. The NFL is back, and now the ball gets rolling on another year. Here are the picks for Week 1....

Last Year's Record: 135-113-8
This Year's Record: 1-0-0
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-6) over Chicago: Even after losing Jordy Nelson, the Packers are the tops in this division, and they will waste no time making that point clear on the Bears. How long does the John Fox-Jay Cutler marriage work?

HOUSTON (-1) over Kansas City: I have liked this line since the summer, and I'm going to stick with it. The only way Houston loses this contest is if Brian Hoyer completely implodes.

Cleveland (+4) over NY JETS: This could be a game that goes either way. The "Pettine" Bowl doesn't exactly have that marquee value to it. I think the ineptitude of Ryan Fitzpatrick will be less of a factor than the ineptitude of Josh McCown, but I'll take a late Browns cover.

Indy (-2) over BUFFALO: Rex Ryan is going to throw the kitchen sink at Andrew Luck in this game, and this might be the most entertaining game of the week. At the end, look for Luck and the Colts to pull one out and spoil Rex's debut in Buffalo.

Miami (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Redskins preseason has been a nightmare, and the Dolphins come to town looking to pounce on Kirk Cousins. This is the lock of the week.

JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Carolina: Talk about a game that lacks any kind of appeal. You hate the way that the Panthers are limping heading into the season, so I'll take the Jags at home as a home underdog.

ST.LOUIS (+4) over Seattle: Surprise #1 of Week 1 will be in St.Louis. The Rams have played Seattle tough the last two years, and this game will be no different. I'm not sure if the Rams will win, and I wouldn't be surprised if Russell Wilson pulls this game out for the Seahawks, but this game will be close throughout.

New Orleans (+3) over ARIZONA: The Saints are one of those teams that no one is really talking about in the NFC. Watch out for the Saints this year. I think they get off to a good start with a solid win on the road over the Cardinals.

SAN DIEGO (-2) over Detroit: The Chargers will be better than a lot of people expect, and I think this is tailor made for them to take down the Lions at home.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over Tennessee: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota square off in a battle of the #1 and #2 overall picks from last year's draft. That makes this game very intriguing, so it will be fun to watch. Look for the Bucs to get to 1-0.

OAKLAND (+5) over Cincy: The upset of the week belongs in the Black Hole. Look for the Raiders to be fired up under new HC Jack Del Rio, and I think this has all the makings of an upset. I guess this is more of a gut pick than anything else.

 NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS : I see this game being a high scoring affair, and I don't have confidence in either defense when it comes to stopping the other team. It looks like a 34-31 shootout either way, so I'll the underdog G-Men.

ATLANTA (+3) over Philly: This game seems like a toss up to me, so I'll take Atlanta simply for the fact that they are the home team. This could also be another great game in Week 1, and you never know what Chip Kelly will have in store for the Falcons, but I think Atlanta takes it in Dan Quinn's debut.

Minnesota (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Vikings are one of my sleeper teams this year, so I have to back them on the road in Week 1 in SF. We know what has happened to the Niners this offseaon, and it would be surprising to see them come out and win this opener. 

Thursday Night Opener Pick!

Pittsburgh (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND: Now that Tom Brady has had his suspension lifted and he will be starting Week 1 at home over the Steelers, it is hard to see the Patriots losing this game. They won't lose, but EVERYONE will be picking them to not only win but cover the spread. I'm going the other way on this.Another reason why I'm taking the Steelers: Because I HATE THE FUCKING PATRIOTS!!!!

2015 AFC Predictions

Part 1 of the predictions featured the NFC, so now let's turn our attention to the AFC....

AFC East 

1) Miami Dolphins:
What I Like: Isn't it about time the Dolphins break through and get to the playoffs? Every year it seems like this team is ready to take the next step, and every year they seem to fall short. You have to like the development of QB Ryan Tannehill at this stage of his career. They rid themselves of the Mike Wallace contract, and signed dependable Kenny Stills to go along with Jarvis Landry and draft pick DaVante Parker at WR to give Tannehill some weapons. They signed the underrated Jordan Cameron at TE, and they seemed to have fix their offensive line issues. They have a legit pass rusher in Cameron Wake, and they made the biggest splash in free agency by signing Ndamukong Suh. Think about the combination of Wake and Suh on third down. It could be scary. They get the weak AFC South in non-division games. They open at Washington, at Jacksonville and home to the Bills. That could give them a nice start. Plus, they finish with four out of their last five games of the year at home. This should be the year the Fish make it happen and get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

What I Don't Like: Let's start with the fact that Joe Philbin in the head coach. I'm not sold on Philbin being a great head coach in this league, and you have to wonder if he can actually get this team over the top. You wonder about the Dolphins mentality because they have looked good on paper before in recent years, and until they finally do it, it could be a factor in their season. They are in a tough division in the competitive AFC East, and they still have to deal with the Patriots twice a year. Their schedule is a little tricky at times. They lose a home game in Miami to go play the Jets in London in Week 4. They have three straight road games (NE, Buffalo, and Philly) in Weeks 8-10. Their final six games are at the Jets, home vs. Baltimore and the Giants, at San Diego, and they finish with home games against Indy and New England. That won't be easy to navigate down the stretch.

Prediction: 10-6 and Winners of the AFC East

2) New England Patriots:
What I Like: They are the Patriots and they are coming off their 4th Super Bowl title in the last decade. They have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and that is worth 10 wins a year right off the bat. They fixed their offensive line issues last year, and with TE Rob Gronkowski healthy, this offense is lethal. With the Deflategate scandal hanging over their heads all offseason, they will use that as motivation. Belichick loves the role of being the "hated" team in the NFL, and he will use that to get his troops ready to roll every week. They have a three game home stand from Weeks 7-9 (Jets, Miami, and Washington), and until someone dethrones them, it is hard not to call them a favorite in the AFC.

What I Don't Like: It wasn't all parties and celebrations for the Super Bowl Champs this offseason. They dodged a bullet when Brady's suspension was overturned and he will not miss the first four games of the year. The team lost Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Vince Wilfork from their defense. The Revis departure could be a deathblow for them. They also don't get a lot of breaks in the schedule. They have to travel to Indy, Dallas and Denver. Their division is a lot tougher than recent years with the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills all significantly better, and they finish with their last two games on the road at the Jets and at Miami. Plus, they get the Steelers at home to start the season, and that will not be an easy opener. This could be the year the Patriots simply come up a little short in their own division.

Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth

3) New York Jets:
What I Like: One word: Defense. The Jets defense is legitimate and it could be one of the best units in all of football. They welcomed Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie back to the secondary. They added CB Buster Skrine as a nickel corner, which should help their depth at that spot. They got DE Leonard Williams as a steal with the #6 pick of the draft. Williams will join a tremendous defensive line that features Muhammad Wilkerson. There is no reason to believe that the Jets defense won't dominate all year long. On offense, they added WR Brandon Marshall in a trade, and they drafted the speedy Devin Smith in the second round to go with Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley. QB Geno Smith has plenty of weapons now in that offense. RB Zac Stacy gives the ground game a nice 1-2 punch with Chris Ivory. The hiring of Todd Bowles as head coach was highly regarded around the league. Bowles was considered one of the best head coaching candidates out there when the Jets brought him on board. They have to deal with back-to-back road games only once the whole season, and their Thursday night game is at home against the Bills in Week 10. The Jets could very easily go from a 4-12 team to a playoff team in one year.

What I Don't Like: As good of an offseason the Jets had their training camp was a disaster. First, Sheldon Richardson was suspended for the first four games of the season due to a substance abuse violation. Then, as camp opened it was revealed that Richardson was arrested again for driving 143 MPH with a loaded gun, marijuana, and a kid in his car. Rookie Devin Smith punctured a lung and missed all of the preseason. Dee Milner got hurt again and will miss time at the start of the season. In only Jets fashion, Geno Smith got into a locker room fight with LB IK Ekempali, who punched Smith and broke his jaw. Smith is going to miss the first quarter of the season at least. The Jets QB situation was the biggest red flag for me going into the season, and now they have no choice but to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick. We know what Fitzpatrick is: He is a journeyman who can win a game or two for your team, but he is not the guy to get a team to the playoffs. The quarterback uncertainty is what will doom the Jets in 2015. Also, you always have to be a little nervous about a first-time head coach like Todd Bowles. I know he is highly regarded, but a lot of coaches are great coordinators and fail to become great head coaches. It is a lot different coaching one side of the ball, and then becoming the head man making all the key decisions on game day.

Prediction: 8-8 and 3rd place in the AFC East

4) Buffalo Bills:
What I Like: The addition of Rex Ryan as head coach is certainly a positive in my opinion. He brings a much needed jolt of energy and excitement that the franchise has lacked in a decade. Plus, you add Rex's expertise on defense to a unit that was one of the best in the NFL last year, and you have a potentially great situation. The Bills added three playmakers to their offense: Percy Harvin, LeSean McCoy, and Charles Clay. Add those guys with Sammy Watkins, and the Bills offense features some real home run hitters. Rex will get the most out of that defense, and look for a big year out of that front seven. Mario Williams should be licking his chops now that Rex is aboard. Four out of their first six games are at home, and they finish with back-to-back home games (Dallas and the Jets) to finish the season. The Bills will be competitive and dangerous all season long, and they have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

What I Don't Like: Like the Jets, the Bills have a lot of questions at QB. They are going with Tyrod Taylor to start the year. If he falters, then E.J. Manuel gets a shot. That isn't a good thing either way. You can't win without a QB, and the Bills have too big of a void in that area. Their schedule is very difficult at times. They open with the Colts and Patriots at home (Tom Brady will be suspended though) and travel to Miami in Week 3. They have to go on the road for five out of six games in Weeks 10-15. They have a three game road stretch in Weeks 10-12 (at Jets, at NE, and at KC), host Houston in Week 13, and head to Philly and Washington in Weeks 14 and 15. That will be very difficult for them to overcome. I think the Bills issues at QB will doom them in Rex's first season in upstate New York.

Prediction: 8-8 and last in the AFC East 

AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers: 
What I Like: The Steelers have an offense that is flat out explosive. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off one of his most productive seasons last year. They have one of the best receivers in the NFL in Antonio Brown, one of the best running backs in the NFL in Le'Veon Bell, and they have a young receiving corps that could blossom into one of the best in the league with Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. They finally have an offensive line that is solid and legitimate, and they have a franchise QB who they can rely on. The Steelers will be able to move the ball and score points on any defense. Although they lost defensive mastermind Dick LeBeau, they replaced him with in-house coach Keith Butler. They are young on defense, but there front seven has a chance to get going this year. If they get Jarvis Jones going, and they get production out of first round pick Bud Dupree, then this defense will surprise people. They get a break in the schedule because they go to New England for the Thursday night opener, but the Pats will be without Tom Brady in that one. Also, they get San Fran at home, go to St. Louis, and host Baltimore in their first four games. They have a three game home stand in Weeks 8-10, and they host Denver and Indy in December. They went 11-5 last year and lost at home to the Ravens in the Wild Card round, but I think they can go even further this year.

What I Don't Like: What happens if the defense completely melts down without Dick Lebeau? What happens if the young guys on defense don't step up? If that happens, then the Steelers will struggle to make the playoffs. You always wonder about the health of Big Ben as well. You just pray he makes it through 16 games if you are a Steelers fan. Starting center Maurkice Pouncey injured his leg in preseason and there is no timetable for his return. Plus, the Steelers have to deal with the suspensions of Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to start the season. That will not help them one bit. Their division is very tough as well. We know the history between the Steelers and the Ravens. The Bengals have been tough the last four years, and the even the Browns can give the Steelers some trouble. It is not an easy road by any stretch for the Steelers to navigate to the playoffs/

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC North

2) Baltimore Ravens:
What I Like: John Harbaugh proved once again that he is one of the best coaches in the NFL last year. He is a really good NFL head coach, and as long as he is manning the sidelines the Ravens will be okay. The same goes for Joe Flacco. He doesn't have the hype like some of the other big name QBs, but he is a very solid player, and he will keep the Ravens competitive no matter who is around him. They just seem to be a threat every year, no matter who comes and who goes. Their defense is young and athletic, and their front seven is very stout. Also, the secondary will be healthy again. Their schedule is ridiculously friendly. They get a stretch of games from Weeks 8-11 in which they have three home games (SD, Jax, and St. Louis) and a bye week. Then, they get a three game home stand in Weeks 14-16 (Seattle, KC, Pittsburgh) near the end of the season. Their only difficult road game that is out of the division is at Denver in Week 1. The Ravens are always in the playoff chase every year, and this year will be no different.

What I Don't Like: This team lost some really key players in the offseason. They lost Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Owen Daniels on offense. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to Denver. On defense, the Ravens traded Haloti Ngata to the Lions. Those are some big losses of guys who helped them win a Super Bowl in 2012. They are banning on rookie WR Breshad Perriman and rookie TE Maxx Williams to fill those voids. It will be very tough to expect that to happen so smoothly.  Their division is also very tough, and although they could be a good team, they could fall short of the playoffs.

Predicition: 8-8 and second place in the AFC North.

3) Cincinnati Bengals:
What I Like: The Bengals still have one of the most talented rosters in the AFC. A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard give Andy Dalton some weapons and some options, and their offensive line has been solid and dependable. Their defense is very solid and they added Michael Johnson back from Tampa Bay to provide more of a pass rush. There is talent all over the roster, and they have been to the playoffs four years in a row. They are bound to break through and go on a deep playoff run. Their schedule isn't too bad. They only have to go back-to-back road games once the entire year (Weeks 15 and 16 at SF and at Denver.) They should be a factor in the AFC North once again.

What I Don't Like: After four straight playoff appearances and no playoff wins to show for it, are we completely on board with Marvin Lewis? Are we sold on Andy Dalton leading the Bengals to where they want to go? I think the answer is easy on those two questions. The Bengals look like the classic team that has been given a chance to make a run the past few years, they didn't do it, and now their shot is gone. I think they are still behind the Ravens and Steelers in their division, and I think they will take a step back this year because their entire focus will be about winning a playoff game, and that pressure will sink their season. They look like one of the big underachievers of the 2015 NFL season.

Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the AFC North.

4) Cleveland Browns:
What I Like: The Browns might not be that far off after their 7-9 campaign in 2014. They added Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline to the offense to go with the combination of Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West at RB. They added Cameron Erving in the first round of the draft to help their offensive line, and they addressed their QB situation by adding Josh McCown in free agency. If Johnny Manziel is ready to play, and it looks like he won't be this year, then at least McCown can give them a veteran presence at the position. By adding DT Danny Shelton also in the first round of the draft, the Browns added to their strength: Defense. You knew Mike Pettine was going to put together a good defense, and he has himself a nice corps of young players to build that defense even more. They added Randy Starks and Tramon Williams to come in and play key roles as well. They have a three game home stand in Weeks 12-14 (Baltimore, Cincy, and SF) that could give them a spark near the end of the year. Maybe the Browns catch lightning in a bottle and are one of this year's sleeper teams and make a surprise playoff appearance.

What I Don't Like: They are the Browns for one. Also, they are still the weakest team in a division that features the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals. Did the Browns really close the gap on those three teams? If the Browns were in another division, I would give them hope for 2015, but not in the AFC North. I know Josh McCown has had his moments, but he isn't the guy who is going to turn this franchise around and put it on his back and head to the playoffs. Plus, when you possible franchise saving QB spent part of his offseason in rehab like Johnny Manziel did, then I don't think that is a good sign. In addition to having to play the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals six times, they have some really tough games out of division. At the Jets will not be easy in Week 1, and they have games at San Diego, against Denver, and at Seattle and at KC in Weeks 15 and 16. Count them up and that is 5 potential losses before you even start looking at the divisional games. I just think the Browns are headed for another down year, and the questions and the pressure will continue to mount on this organization.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the AFC North. 

AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis Colts: 
What I Like: Just put the Colts and Andrew Luck in first place of this division for the next 10 years. It starts with Luck and ends with Luck. He is the next big thing in the NFL, and every year he is getting one step closer to the Super Bowl. Perhaps this is his year. The Colts haven't had a consistent running game, and this offseason they added Frank Gore. Also, they gave Luck another weapon in Andre Johnson to go along with the dynamic T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and Donte Moncrief. It doesn't actually matter because Luck will make all of them good players anyway. On defense, the key is that they got Trent Cole in free agency, and they will get Robert Mathis back from injury to help their pass rush. Their division is still very weak, they get New England and Denver at home this year, and their only brutal road game is at Pittsburgh. Add it all up and the Colts will head into the season as the favorite in the AFC, and they will probably end up with the #1 seed going into the playoffs.

What I Don't Like: Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Trent Cole have been great pros, but maybe there is too much tread on the tires for them. Perhaps they are past their prime, and those moves don't work out. On defense, their secondary is solid with Vontae Davis leading the way, but they are banking on Cole and Mathis to steady their pass rush. I'm not so sure that is going to work out in their favor. It seems like they forgot to worry about their defense. Also, are you the biggest Chuck Pagano fan? Is he that good of a coach? I'm not sure he is. They are going to playoffs, but perhaps they will be overlooking a lot of teams and not play as well as they possibly can during the regular season.

Prediction: 13-3 and winners of the AFC South

2) Houston Texans:
What I Like: This team should have been a playoff team last year. If they had any consistency at the QB position, they would have been in the playoffs. J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league. They added Vince Wilfork up front. They also revamped their secondary by adding Rahim Moore and Stevie Brown to the safety spot. If Jadeveon Clowney, who was the forgotten man last year, gives them any type of production this year, they this defense will wreak havoc on opposing offenses. I think Brian Hoyer, given the right circumstances, can do enough to get a team to win. He still has DeAndre Hopkins and his 76 catches and 1,210 yards from 2015. Their offense is probably a little underrated. Their division is weak with the exception of the Colts, and they get the NFC South out of conference. Is there any doubt that Bill O'Brien can coach his butt off too? This team should be battling for a playoff spot down to the last week once again.

What I Don't Like: As much as I think Brian Hoyer isn't terrible, he still is Brian Hoyer. If he falls apart, then the Texans turn to Ryan Mallet, who is still an unknown at this point in his career. The QB position is the one spot that is holding the Texans back at this point. They would be a surefire playoff team, and they would challenge the Colts in the division if they had a better or more settled triggerman. It looks like Arian Foster could be out for a long time due to a groin injury suffered in training camp. We all know how important he has been to the Texans when they have been successful. Also, they did lose some other key players in the offseason. Andre Johnson, Danieal Manning, Chris Myers, Brooks Reed, and D.J. Swearinger all left, and that could leave a void in the locker room and on the field. The second half of their schedule is pretty tough. Starting in Week 10, they have at Cincy, the Jets, New Orleans, at Buffalo, New England and at Indy in Week 15. That is tough stretch towards the end of the year.

Prediction: 7-9 and second place in the AFC South

3) Tennessee Titans:
What I Like: They made the move they had to make and they drafted Marcus Mariota #2 overall. We have seen some rookie QBs come in and have success, and I could see a similar situation like the one that Washington had with RG III in 2012. Maybe Mariota just uses his natural ability and finds ways to win. It will be interesting to see him progress this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him play well and win some games on his own. The Titans also added Dorial Green-Beckham in the second round of the draft. If this works out, then Mariota to Green-Beckham could be very exciting to watch. The rest of Mariota's weapons are pretty good with Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker, Harry Douglas and Bishop Sankey. Their biggest defensive addition was Brian Orakpo on the field and Dick Lebeau on the coaching staff. It will be interesting to see LeBeau get a hold of the Titans defense and try to instill his style and scheme. Their schedule is friendly in the sense that they have what is essentially a four game home stand. In Week 3, they host the Colts, then they have a bye in Week 4, and then they have three games at home in a row with Buffalo, Miami, and Atlanta coming to town. The Titans could be a very sneaky team this year-especially if Mariota is as good as advertised.

What I Don't Like: Anytime you start a rookie QB, you are taking the risk of having some trouble and some serious bumps in the road. Throw in the fact that Mariota might hold out, and that could be a recipe for disaster. Let's face it: This is a team in transition. They were 2-14 last year for a reason. They are rebuilding and they will go as far as Mariota takes them. They are still behind the Colts and Texans in their own division. Their last four games are very difficult: At Jets, at Patriots, home against Houston, and at Indy. They also open the season with two straight on the road. Also, how much do you trust head coach Ken Whisenhunt? It will be a rebuilding year for the Titans, and two years from now is when they can start thinking playoffs.

Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the AFC South

4) Jacksonville Jaguars:
What I Like: The Jags have put pieces in place to make young QB Blake Bortles successful in year two of his career. They added Stefan Wisniewski and Jermey Parnell to beef up the offensive line. They have a young group of receivers like Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns to help him out in the passing game. They signed Bernard Pierce and drafted T.J. Yeldon to help in the running game. They have the "X Factor" in Denard Robinson, and they added one top free agents in the offseason in TE Julius Thomas. They are putting their chips to the center of the table and going all-in with Bortles and hoping that it pays off. Quietly, their front seven is very solid, and Sen'Derrick Marks is the anchor of that group. It is hard to see where the Jaguars are in terms of the pecking order of AFC playoff contenders, but the arrow is definitely pointing up.

What I Don't Like: Besides the fact that they are the Jaguars, this whole London thing is a disaster for them. Think about this: The Jaguars will play just one home game from September 27th to November 19th! That is astonishing. They have three straight road games from September 27th to October 11th, then they host Houston, and then they travel to London to take on the Bills on October 25th. After a bye on November 1st, they have two straight road games at the Jets and at Baltimore. That stretch of the season is going to kill the Jaguars season. Mark my words. That is what Jags owner Shad Khan gets for trying to "market" his franchise and sacrificing them to the London every year. Also, even if the Jags survive that stretch, they still are the Jaguars, and until they prove they can be together a successful season, everyone is going to consider them the NFL's red-headed step child. To add to their "Jagwads" label, they will miss TE Julius Thomas for at least the first month of the season due to finger surgery after an injury in the preseason.

Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the AFC South

AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers:
What I Like: The Chargers finished 9-7 last year, and they very easily could have been a playoff team, and as long as Phillip Rivers is their QB, then they will be in playoff contention. I was impressed by some of the moves they made this year. They added OG Orlando Franklin up front, they added Stevie Johnson and Jacoby Jones to go along with Keenan Allen, Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates (He will be suspended the first four games though), and Ladarius Green. They drafted a potential home-run hitter at running back with the selection of Melvin Gordon in the first round. Their defense seems like it is ready to really flourish with a lot of young and up and coming talent (Melvin Ingram, Corey Liuget, and Donald Butler). Here are their five games: Detroit, at Cincy, at Minnesota, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. They should be 4-1 and off to a good start heading into Green Bay in Week 6. The Chargers were certainly not that far off last year, and they made enough moves to possibly win the AFC West for the first time since 2009.

What I Don't Like: There are three things that could derail the Chargers season that people probably won't give a lot of thought about. First, their schedule is very tricky at the end of the season. They have to play all three AFC West rivals on the road in the last four weeks (at KC in Week 14, at Oakland in Week 16, and at Denver in Week 17.) That is a very interesting and weird quirk, and we know how difficult playing in Arrowhead and in Mile High can be. Secondly, I am still not convinced that Mike McCoy is a good NFL head coach. When I watch the Chargers, he seems to make some very bizarre and strange decisions regarding timeouts, challenges, game management, and play-calling amongst others. I don't think you can trust Mike McCoy in a big game. Lastly, perhaps the possible move from San Diego to Los Angeles could put such a distraction on the Chargers during the season, that it actually implodes the entire 2015 campaign. I remember what happened to the Browns in 1995. Their season crumbled after it became public that the team was moving to Baltimore. I just wonder if the cloud of Los Angeles could have the same effect on the Chargers this year.

Prediction: 11-5 and Winners of the AFC West

2) Denver Broncos:
What I Like: Everyone is doubting Peyton Manning. Yes, I know he is 39 years old, and I know that a quad injury hijacked the end of his season last year, and ended up knocking Denver out of the playoffs as Manning limped off the field, but he is fully healed and motivated to prove people wrong. When you doubt Manning, and he has even more motivation to prove critics wrong, then he backs it up in a big way. I would expect Manning to play at a high level, put up big numbers, and have a very good season in Gary Kubiak's new offensive system. Although the Broncos lost Julius Thomas, there are still some really good playmakers on this offense: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and C.J. Anderson are all Pro Bowl caliber players. I loved the addition of TE Owen Daniels in free agency, and you know that Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, and Montee Ball will all get a chance to provided a three-headed monster at the running back spot in Kubiak's run scheme. The strength of the Broncos will actually be their defense. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware return as bookend pass rushers, and Denver added pass-rush specialist Shane Ray in the first round of the draft after Ray fell down the draft board. Denver's defense also features two of the most versatile inside linebackers in Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan. Both guys can play every down. Their secondary is one of the best in the league. Chris Harris is one of the best cornerbacks in football, but no one talks about him. Aqib Talib is a very good corner on the other side, and T.J. Ward is beast on the back end. Bradley Roby was a very big part of the defense last year as a nickel corner in his rookie season. The schedule is helpful in the second half of the season because the Broncos finish with five home games in their last eight, and their last two games of the season are at home (Cincy and San Diego.) Denver also has the pleasure of hosting the Packers and Patriots this season in Weeks 8 and 12 respectively. I also love the fact that no one is giving Denver or Peyton Manning much of a chance this season in the AFC, and that is a dangerous thing to do.

What I Don't Like: I really don't like the Broncos offensive line situation. They lost LT Ryan Clady for the year to an ACL injury the first day of OTAs. Now, they are planning on starting rookie second round pick Ty Sambraillo at that spot. That is a very scary thing to think about with a rookie protecting Peyton Manning's blindside. Also, they lost Orlando Franklin and traded Manny Ramirez, so their only starter coming back from the end of last season will be RG Louis Vasquez. The question marks surrounding the offensive line are very scary heading into the season. I don't think the Broncos can just lose a weapon like Julius Thomas and not see any effect on the field. Say what you want about him, but Thomas was such a difference maker on third down and in the end zone. It will be very hard to replace him. The Broncos also lost some key locker room guys in free agency like Terrence Knighton, Rahim Moore, and Jacob Tamme. Their schedule overall is very difficult with games against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Indy, the Patriots, Green Bay, at Detroit, and Cincy on the slate. It could be tough for Denver to post a 12 or 13 win season like they did the past three years.

Prediction: 9-7 and a Wild Card berth

3) Oakland Raiders:
What I Like: The Raiders have added some much needed talent to their roster, and it might finally pay off a little. They were 3-13 last year, and they started the year 0-10. They can only go up from that type of season. You have to be encouraged by what you saw out of Derek Carr last year. He looks like he has a chance to be pretty good. They gave him weapons with Amari Cooper in the draft, Michael Crabtree in free agency, and Latavius Murray in the run game. Also, they feature a defense with a star in the making in OLB Kahlil Mack. They also added pass rusher Mario Edwards in the second round of the draft. This team is on the rise, and they will be competitive week in and week out.

What I Don't Like: I'm not a fan of Jack Del Rio as a head coach. I know Raider fans think that he is going to bring much-needed fire and enthusiasm to the organization, but Del Rio really did nothing as the Jaguars head coach, and I'm just impressed by him to think that he can turn this franchise around. I think they are still behind the Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers in this division. The schedule is very difficult at times too. They open at home their first two games but with Cincy and Baltimore. They play a four game stretch in Weeks 5-9 of Denver, BYE, at San Diego, Jets, at Pittsburgh. Their last four games are also very tough with at Denver, Green Bay, San Diego, and at Kansas City. They might show flashes of brilliance this season, but it looks like the Raiders are at least one year away from possibly contending for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 7-9 and third place in the AFC West

4) Kansas City Chiefs:
What I Like: KC finished 9-7 last year and just out of the playoffs, so they are not very far off from getting back into the postseason once again. You have the like the job that Andy Reid has done in his first two years in Kansas City going 20-12 in the process. Alex Smith is always steady and dependable, and the Chiefs have one of best backs in all of football with Jamaal Charles, and they have one of the best young TEs in Travis Kelce. Their pass rushing duo of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali is a deadly combination. Their schedule is friendly in certain areas. They host Denver on a Thursday Night game in Week 2, and they finish the season with three out of their last four at home (SD, Cleveland, and Oakland.) The Chiefs will certainly be a team that could be in the mix to make the playoffs for the second time in three years under Andy Reid.

What I Don't Like: Outside of Charles and Kelce, who scares you on the Chiefs? I know Jeremy Maclin can be dangerous, but is he that good? I didn't think so. Does Jason Avant scare you from a defensive perspective? Not really. Their offensive line is still a question mark, and their secondary still has some holes in it. I understand that Alex Smith is successful at what he does, but after a while it seems like there will be a time when the low-risk and low-reward style of play just gets shut down and becomes ineffective. I just don't see explosive pieces on this team to keep up with some of the teams they will face this year like Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincy, and Detroit. It feels like a down year for the Chiefs, and a year riddled with unfulfilled expectations.

Prediction: 6-10 and last place in the AFC West.


Predictions Cheat Sheet
AFC East
1) Miami (10-6)
2) New England (10-6) Wild Card
3) NY Jets (8-8)
4) Buffalo (8-8)

AFC North
1) Pittsburgh (11-5)
2) Baltimore (9-7)
3) Cincy (6-10)
4) Cleveland (5-11)

AFC South
1) Indy (13-3)
2) Houston (8-8)
3) Tennessee (6-10)
4) Jacksonville (5-11)

AFC West
1) San Diego (11-5)
2) Denver (9-7) Wild Card
3) Oakland (7-9)
4) KC (6-10)

AFC Playoff Seeds and Predictions
1) Indy 
2) San Diego
3) Pittsburgh
4) Miami
5) New England
6) Denver

Wild Card Round
3-Pittsburgh over 6-Denver: It what might be Peyton Manning's last NFL game, he goes one and done once again as Big Ben and the Steelers get their first playoff win since 2010.

5-New England over 4-Miami: Miami might have won the AFC East, but the Patriots go on the road and topple the Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs.

Divisional Round
3-Pittsburgh over 2-San Diego: The Steelers go into San Diego and hand the Chargers another tough playoff exit.

1-Indianapolis over 5-New England: Andrew Luck and the Colts get revenge on the Patriots and finally knock off New England in their third consecutive meeting in the playoffs.

AFC Championship
3-Pittsburgh over 1-Indianapolis: Shades of the 2005 Divisional Playoffs as the Steelers go into Indy and upset the Colts and they advance to 9th Super Bowl appearance in team history.

SUPER BOWL 50:
Green Bay over Pittsburgh: In a classic matchup between two of the NFL's historic franchises, the Packers win Super Bowl 50 and capture their fifth Lombardi Trophy.

2015 NFC Predictions

It is that time of the year. As the NFL season is about to get underway, the time has come to make predictions. As always I try to stick to a certain formula when predicting the season. First, at least five teams won't make it back to the playoffs from the year before. Second, at least one team that lost at least 10 games the year before will make it to the playoffs this year. Lastly, I like to be bold with my predictions. Some of them are "chalk," but I try to go outside the box and get creative with some of my forecasts. It will be a wild ride in 2015 like it always is in the NFL, so here are my 2015 NFL Predictions. I'll start with the NFC.....

NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles:
What I Like: I like the additions of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews to the running game. If Chip Kelly has to run it a lot he will do that, so these moves will be beneficial to the Eagles. I also like the weapons they have in the passing game. Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper, Brent Celek, Zach Ertz and rookie Nelson Agholor are all capable of helping this offense succeed. If Sam Bradford is healthy, and we all know how questionable that is, then this offense will be very good and the Eagles will be successful. I find no reason why Kelly can't get a lot of our Bradford in his scheme. Plus, if he goes down for a game or two, Mark Sanchez showed last year that he can step in a win a couple games Defensively, the Eagles added Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond to the secondary, and Kiko Alonso to the LB corps to go along with Fletcher Cox, Connor Barwin, Mychal Kendricks, and the underrated Vinny Curry. Their schedule helps them in their last eight games, in which five of them are home. They have a critical three-game home stand in Weeks 14-16 when Buffalo, Arizona, and Washington come to town. That is a very winnable stretch of games at the end of the year. Everybody is doubting Chip Kelly, and I know that he has opened himself up to criticism, but I have a feeling that somehow, someway he will guide this team in the right direction.

What I Don't Like: The question will be centered around Sam Bradford's health. Can Bradford stay healthy? What can he do in this scheme that Chip Kelly will run? You hate to have so much uncertainty at that position, but that really is the focal point for the Eagles. Also, when you lose talent like LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson over the last two years, you worry a little bit about having enough firepower on offense. Even Nick Foles put up some really good numbers in this offense to make you wonder if going from Foles to Bradford is actually a downgrade. Only time will tell, but when you have this much roster turnover, it takes time for it to gel and that might take a whole year.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the NFC East


2) Dallas Cowboys:
What I Like: Even with the departure of DeMarco Murray, you have to love the Cowboys offense. The number one reason is they have the best offensive line in football. Also, they added La'el Collins to that line because he went undrafted due to a legal situation that was resolved, so the best O-Line in football just added a guy who was going to be a top 20 pick. That offensive line will be able to protect Tony Romo once again, and Romo still has his top receiving weapons returning: Newly signed Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Jason Witten, and the dangerous Cole Beasley. A dominant offensive line can be such a huge difference maker in these games, so I would expect the Cowboys offense to be very good once again in 2015. On defense, the Cowboys gambled with the signing of Greg Hardy. He got his suspension reduced, and say what you want about the guy's character, he can be a dominant pass rusher. They also get inspirational leader Sean Lee back at LB after missing all of last year. In the draft, they gambled in the second round by selecting Nebraska pass rusher Randy Gregory, who has his own off-the-field issues. If Gregory keeps his head in check, he could be one of the steals of the draft. Their secondary finally feels like it is not a problem or concern heading into a season for once. The Cowboys were a controversial non-catch call away from beating the Packers and heading to Seattle for the NFC Championship. There is no reason why they can't go further than that this season.

What I Don't Like: You can't be happy with all the off-the-field nonsense. From Greg Hardy starting the year on suspension and the story with him to Rolando McClain being suspended for the first four games due to substance abuse to the character issues with Randy Gregory, the Cowboys just seem to have a lot of baggage heading into the season. Sometimes too many character concerns on one team could negatively affect it. Also, DeMarco Murray was such a factor in what they did last year. He defined them on offense. I have no problem letting Murray walk away, but to replace him with Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden didn't make much sense. I can't see those guys coming in and doing what Murray was able to do for this offense. Their schedule isn't the most favorable either. They always have to deal with the always challenging NFC East and all of their divisional rivals, and they get the AFC East out of conference. Road games at New Orleans in Week 4 and at Green Bay in Week 14 will not be easy, and they have some formidable home games out of division that include Atlanta, New England (Tom Brady might be suspended though), Seattle, and the Jets.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC East

3) New York Giants
What I Like: The G-Men could have one of the most dynamic passing games in the NFL. Eli Manning has rising superstar Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Ruben Randle, James Jones, and Larry Donnell at his disposal. This passing attack could be downright ridiculous. They are going to move the ball and score a lot of points. Defensively, they were really poor last season, but their best offseason move on defense was to get Steve Spagnuolo to come back as defensive coordinator. Spags was one of the big reasons why the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007, and having him back in the fold could be one of the biggest improvements on this team. Also, the Giants ranked 32nd in the league the past two years in terms of injuries and lost games due to injury. That means that the Giants lost the most players to injury the last two years than anyone else in the NFL. The injuries usually balance out over the course of two years, but not for the Giants, so you would have to think that they won't get riddled with too many injuries this year.  Their schedule is not too bad either. They have the AFC East, but they get the Patriots at home in November. They also get out of division home games against Atlanta, Carolina, and San Francisco, and their Thursday Night Game is at home against Washington in Week 3. The Giants are one of the most intriguing teams in the NFC, and it wouldn't surprise me if they find themselves in the playoffs come January.

What I Don't Like: When one of your top five players and best defensive player blows off a finger or two in a July 4th fireworks accident, then that is not a great sign for your defense or your upcoming season. There is a lot of unknown surrounding Jason Pierre-Paul, but one this is for sure: He is not going to be the same player even if he does return this year. The situation with JPP could be a deathblow on the Giants defense. When you lose your best pass rusher, then it is very difficult to get production from everyone else on that defense. It is a loss that I don't think the Giants can recover from.  The Giants defense will continue to be under the microscope-especially with the loss of Antrel Rolle to free agency. Just in the preseason alone, their safeties suffered injury after injury, and it has really hurt their depth in that area. Although the return of Spagnuolo is a good sign, is there enough talent on the defense to make a significant improvement? Also, it seems like every year the Giants have question marks on the offensive line and after losing Will Beatty in OTAs, those same question marks continue to haunt the Giants. As I mentioned earlier, the schedule is pretty friendly, but the NFC East is always a tough battleground, and they have to deal with the AFC East this year, and all of those four games will be tough match ups no matter the venue.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC East

4) Washington Redskins
What I Like: Um, so what do I like about the Redskins and their chances in 2015? I guess we will start with Ryan Kerrigan is locked up long term. Terrence Knighton comes over from Denver, and he is a run-stopping force in the middle. They added DTs Stephen Paea and Ricky-Jean Francois up front, and Dashon Goldson and Chris Culliver in the secondary, so the Redskins strength is their defense without a doubt. I like the selection of OT Brandon Scherff with the 5th overall pick in the draft, and second round pick Preston Smith will be asked to start right away at OLB. They still have Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon on offense. With the RG III debacle behind them, maybe they can turn their attention to getter something out of Kirk Cousins. Their schedule is pretty friendly out of the gate with three out of four at home including Miami and St. Louis in DC in Weeks 1 and 2. Perhaps they got off to a good start, RG III plays with some confidence and the defense really shows how good it can be, and then the Redskins are the surprise of the league.

What I Don't Like: The whole way the RG III thing went down was just a disaster. First, the concussion situation after the first preseason game, and then the benching of Griffin, and just the overall way both sides handled it was a disgrace on all fronts. When you bench your supposed franchise QB, then you know your team has major problems. They also lost top free agent pickup Junior Gallette to an Achilles injury in preseason.  By the way, does anyone really buy Gruden as a NFL head coach? There is nothing that he has done so far to make anyone believe that he is the right guy to turn around the Redskins. Bad coach and QB combinations just don't have a great deal of success in the NFL and that will most likely cause the Redskins downfall once again. I even think Gruden will be looking for a new job come January.

Prediction: 4-12 and last place in the NFC East.

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay Packers:
What I Like: It is so easy just to put the Packers as the winners of the NFC North and move on, and that is case again this year. We all know how good Aaron Rodgers is, and the Packers were smart because they locked up free agent WR Randall Cobb to a long-term extension. Even with losing Jordy Nelson to a season-ending injury in the preseason, Rodgers has Cobb in the fold with the emerging Davante Adams and big Eddie Lacy back at RB. Whatever problems the Packers have on offense will be okay with Rodgers at the controls. That is just how it is when you have one the best quarterbacks on the planet on your team. Their defense just has to be good enough to get stops when they need it and get a turnover on occasion. They are easily the best team in the division and one of the front-runners in the NFC. Their schedule is very friendly. They have four out of their first six games at Lambeau Field, they host their only Thursday night game (Chicago on Thanksgiving night), and they get Seattle and Dallas coming into Green Bay. The Packers were so close to going to the Super Bowl last year, and there is no reason why they won't make it there this year with this group.

What I Don't Like: Forget about offense, defense, scheme, and a schedule, the one aspect of the Packer that I don't like is the coaching of Mike McCarthy. He is awful with game management situations. His inability in this area cost his team the NFC Championship against Seattle. The Packers are going to be there in the playoffs this season. The question for them is about how McCarthy will handle the situations in this big games. Based on prior history, you have to worry about him more than anything else. His coaching might hold the Packers from winning another Lombardi Trophy. Also, it can never help when you lose your best receiver. The loss of Jordy Nelson can be overcome because the Packers have the best QB in the NFL, but it is certainly not a positive for them on offense.

Prediction: 12-4 and Winners of the NFC North

2) Minnesota Vikings:
What I Like: The Vikings are one of my sleeper teams this year because they have some very intriguing elements: Coaching, young talent, and a developing QB. Oh yeah, they also have a pissed off, healthy, and motivated Adrian Peterson coming back. I've loved the Vikings in 2015 as the 2-14 season ended. I think Teddy Bridgewater will be a solid NFL starter, and he showed flashes last year. I really like Mike Zimmer as a head coach in the NFL. Also, I like the talent stockpiled around Bridgewater on offense. Obviously, you have Adrian Peterson, but the Vikes also feature Cordarelle Patterson, the newly acquired Mike Wallace, and Kyle Rudolph on offense. Defensively, Minnesota has a pass rusher in Everson Griffen, Chad Greenway, Xavier Rhodes, and Harrsion Smith. Look for draft pick Trae Waynes and Eric Kendricks to make an impact right away as well. They go to San Fran in Week 1, then host Detroit and San Diego in Weeks 2 and 3. They could be 3-0 heading to Denver in Week 4. They get Seattle in Week 13, and the Bears and Giants at home in Weeks 15 and 16. The Vikings look like that team that is going to surprise a lot of people and find their way into the NFC playoffs. Plus, the best part is that no one is ready to pick them this year to make that leap.

What I Don't Like: You worry about Bridgewater not fulfilling his promising rookie campaign. It is hard for these young QBs to follow it up in their sophomore year. If Bridgewater falls flat, then the Vikings are headed for a dismal year.  The offensive line was a weak point last year, and the combination of a leaky offensive line and a developing QB could be a rough situation all year. Their division won't be easy to navigate as well. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL, the Lions had plenty of talent and are coming off a playoff season, and the Bears will certainly be better this year, so getting through the North might be very tricky for them. There is an argument that the Vikings might be a year away from being a playoff contender.

Prediction: 9-7 and a Wild Card berth

3) Chicago Bears:
What I Like: Although he limped his way out of Denver last year, John Fox is a good enough coach to fix the Bears problems on defense to make that unit respectable. Also, he is such an upgrade over Marc Trestman as far as head coaches go. The Bears were so bad last year in their 5-11 campaign that there is no place else to go but up. They had to stay with Jay Cutler at QB because of his contract, but that might not be such a bad thing. I'm not the biggest Cutler fan, but with the addition of Adam Gase as the new OC, I can see Cutler playing relatively well for his standards. They still have Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett they added Kevin White in the first round of the draft, and many people believed that White was the best receiver to come out last year. Also, getting rid of Brandon Marshall was a blessing and they added Eddie Royal to be their slot guy. Their defense will have to improve from last year and getting a guy like Pernell McPhee will help them tremendously. Antrel Rolle will help them in the secondary, and they still have Jared Allen to come in and help their pass rush. Fox will stabilize the defense enough that they should be competitive in every game unlike last year's debacle.

What I Don't Like: As good as Fox is as being a quality NFL head coach from Monday through Saturday, he is not the best game coach. I worry about him having a guy like Cutler too. Cutler is what he is. He hasn't proven himself to be a consistent QB in the NFL, and he makes some really bad decisions every game. It is going to be hard for Fox and Gase to change that overnight. How many times have new coordinators come in and said they were going to fix Jay Cutler? Every time it has happened, it just hasn't worked put, yet Cutler is still in Chicago. Their schedule didn't do them any favors this year either. They host Green Bay in Week 1, and they have back-to-back road games three different times this season (KC and Detroit, San Diego and St. Louis, and Minnesota and Tampa Bay.) They have to go to Green Bay on Thanksgiving night, and they have to go to Seattle in Week 3 and host Denver in Week 11. They also will be without rookie WR Kevin White for at least the first six games of the year, and he might miss the whole season, so that will be a big blow to their offense as well.  I'm not really sure what to make of the Bears this year. They won't be as bad as they were last year, but they are not ready to make a jump into the playoffs either.

Prediction: 8-8 and 3rd place in the NFC North

4) Detroit Lions:
What I Like: Surprisingly, Jim Caldwell did very well in his first year in Detroit going 11-5 and making the playoffs. They still have Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate coming back on offense. There is enough firepower there for them to be a force offensively. I also like the pick of Ameer Abudullah in the second round to help their running game. Defensively, they added Haloti Ngata up front to ease the loss of Ndamukong Suh. Ziggy Ansah is on the cusp of being a major player on the defense as well. Their defense held opposing offenses to under 20 points in 11 out of 16 games last year. They changed their formula and it led to the playoff berth that they earned. As long as they stay healthy and Stafford plays well, they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to be very competitive and in every game.

What I Don't Like: I really didn't like their offseason at all. Losing Suh is going to be a tough blow for them. They also lost Reggie Bush and Nick Fairley. I'm also still not sold on Jim Caldwell being a quality NFL head coach. I know he did well last yeah, but he has enough on his resume to suggest that can be liability on the sideline. Some teams just don't respond well after a year in which they exceed expectations. There is always that one team that drops from a double-digit victory year to a mediocre year. The Lions are that team this upcoming year. I don't like their schedule at all. They open on the road their first two games at San Diego and at Minnesota. They come home and host Denver on SNF, and then they head to Seattle. That is a rough first four weeks. Although they have two three game home stands during the season, they still have to travel to London to play the Chiefs in Week 8, then they go to Green Bay two weeks later. They finish with a very tough December: Green Bay, at St. Louis, at New Orleans, San Francisco, and at Chicago. I just don't see the Lions getting back to the playoffs once again this season.

Prediction: 6-10 and last place in NFC North

NFC SOUTH
1) Atlanta Falcons:
What I Like: As bad as the Falcons were last year, they were still 6-9 and playing for the AFC South crown and a playoff spot at home against Carolina. The fact that they got crushed 34-3 showed you just how bad they were, but at least they were still in the hunt at the end of the season. This team has a new coach in Dan Quinn, who comes over from Seattle. I know he is a first year head coach in the NFL, but you can't get any worse than the coaching job that Mike Smith did last year. Immediately, Quinn is an upgrade. They still have Matt Ryan, and the duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones. They also added RB Tevin Coleman in the third round of the draft to help out the running game. Their defense is where you should see the most improvement. They added Adrian Clayborn, Tyson Jackson, Brooks Reed, and O'Brien Schofield in free agency to help on that side of the ball. They drafted Vic Beasley in the first round to be a pass rush specialist, and Jalen Collins in the second round to help at cornerback. With new coaches, a new scheme, and some fresh faces, the Falcons defense should help turn this team around. Their schedule is very friendly. They open at home on MNF against the Eagles. From Weeks 4-9, here is their slate: Houston, Washington, at New Orleans, at Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and at San Francisco. Even their three game road swing in December is manageable (at Tampa Bay, at Carolina, at Jacksonville.) In this division, it won't take much to turn things around and win it, and the Falcons look like the team that will do that.

What I Don't Like: Every team in the NFC South has holes, and the Falcons have some question marks that need to be answered. If Tevin Coleman doesn't get going his rookie year, can the Falcons really rely on Devonta Freeman to carry the load at RB? Outside of Roddy White and Julio Jones, who is the third option that will really scare teams? Can Devin Hester be that guy? The tight end position is thin with Tony Moeaki, Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo. They might be better off asking Tony Gonzalez to come out of retirement. If they don't get anything out of Beasley, Jackson, Reed or Schofield, then they are screwed on defense. The lack of pass rush has killed them the last two years. There are some viable questions regarding this team, and if they were in another division they probably wouldn't be a playoff team, but since they are in the South then they have a real shot of making it.

Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC South

2) New Orleans Saints:
What I Like: Drew Brees is a top five QB in the league, a perennial All Pro, and a future Hall of Famer, and after throwing for over 4,900 yards and 33 touchdowns last season, I don't think he is done being a top-flight player in this league. As long as he is around, the Saints will be competitive and a threat to make the playoffs. Getting Max Unger from Seattle in the Jimmy Graham trade was very helpful in solidifying their offensive line. They also drafted OT Andrus Peat in the first round of the draft, and he was considered one of best lineman to come out last year, so he can become an instant starter.  Brees still has Marques Colston, and Brandin Cooks was having a very solid rookie season until he got hurt and missed the last six games of the year. Mark Ingram was very productive last year, and you have to love the move to get RB C.J. Spiller in free agency. You would think that Sean Payton will find ways to exploit defenses with Spiller. On defense, they brought back old assistant Dennis Allen to help Rob Ryan fix that unit. Jarius Byrd returns from injury to help bolster the secondary with Kenny Vaccaro, and the additions of Anthony Spencer, Dannell Ellberbe, and Brandon Browner along with draft picks Stephone Anthony and Hau'oli Kikaha should resurrect that defense to some degree. Let's put it this way: There is more talent and better coaching on that defense this year than there was last year. Their division is weak and that is the key. It won't take much to win this thing. They don't have any back-to-back road games, and they start with Arizona on the road, Tampa Bay, at Carolina, and they host Dallas. Their Thursday night game is at home against Atlanta in Week 6, and they host three of their last five games at home (Carolina, Detroit, and Jacksonville). The odds are definitely in their favor of bouncing back from last year's 7-9 season.

What I Don't Like: They seem like a very perplexing team to figure out. First, their salary cap situation is such a mess. You wonder if all these cap problems will affect their roster to the point that they don't have enough talent, or they don't have enough talent to replace guys if they go down with injury. Also, the Jimmy Graham trade could be very tough for their offense to recover from. You can't underestimate how lethal Graham was for Drew Brees the last few years. Do they have enough firepower on offense now that Graham is gone? That is a very big question for them as they head into the season. Also, they released Junior Gallete before training camp, and you have to wonder who is going to pick up the slack in the pass rush department. When you release your best pass rusher before the season starts, that isn't the best sign for your defense. This team used to be a lock at home, but last year they lost their last five games of the year at home. You worry that this team hit their peak a few years ago, and their window has already closed.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC South

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
What I Like: You have to like the chances of the Bucs improving from last year's 2-14 debacle. Jameis Winston will be an upgrade right away for this team. Forget about his off the field transgressions, Winston is still a very talented player who deserved to go #1 overall in the draft. I would bet that he will have a promising rookie campaign-especially that he is flanked by two stud receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, who both had 1,000 yard seasons on a 2-14 team. If they can get RB Doug Martin going again, then they have themselves a nice little offense. Plus, you know Lovie Smith is eventually going to get things turned around on defense. They have some cornerstone pieces in Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Smith is a good enough coach to figure out how to improve that side of the ball. They will be much improved this year, and although the playoffs might be a year away, the future will start to look bright in Tampa Bay.

What I Don't Like: You have to worry a little about Winston's off the field decisions. What happens if he struggles during the season? Will he pout and react in a negative way? Those are questions that have to be answered by him, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. You know he will struggle at times, but how it will affect him will be the key. A lot of things went wrong for them last year on offense, but I'm still worried their offensive line. A rookie QB and question marks up front are a dangerous combination. Their secondary is still a question mark on defense, and when you have to deal with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton in your own division, that will make things very tough. Their schedule is tough at times. From November 1st to December 17th, here is what they have to deal with: at Atlanta, Giants, Dallas, at Philly, at Indy, Atlanta, New Orleans, and at St. Louis on a Thursday night. That is a tough stretch. It is going to be too much to ask for them to make the playoffs this year given their situation.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South

4) Carolina Panthers:
What I Like: You have to love Cam Newton's ability to put this team and this franchise on his back. He did it at Auburn, and he is doing it in Carolina. They have Jonathan Stewart back in the fold to go along with Mike Tolbert. Did you know that Greg Olsen had 84 catches and 1,008 yards to go along with 6 touchdowns last year? I didn't realize that either, so Newton does have some options on offense to help him out.  If there is a QB that can basically do it on his own, Newton is that guy.Defensively, the Panthers were really solid down the stretch last year, and it all starts with MLB Luke Kuechly. He is one of the best defensive players in all of football, and if he was in a bigger market, he would be getting more credit nationally. Their schedule gives them a chance to get off to a good start with at Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and at Tampa Bay. They also have a three game home stand in Weeks 7-9. They have won the division the past two years, so perhaps they will be able to make a deeper run in the playoffs this year if they get there.

What I Don't Like: They went from 13 wins in 2013 to 7-8-1 last year, but were able to claim the NFC South and make the playoffs. It looks like the Panthers are trending downward at this point. Yes, they have Cam Newton, Luke Keuchly and some young, quality players, but I don't think they have enough to compete in this division this year. Losing Kelvin Benjamin to a season-ending injury in training camp was a real blow. That cancelled out one of Newton's best options on that offense. The NFC South isn't the greatest division, but it will certainly be better than it was last year, and that will present problems for the Panthers. Their only big offensive offseason acquisition was Ted Ginn Jr. I am also not sold on Ron Rivera being a big-time NFL head coach. I know he led the Panthers to the playoffs the last two years, but I'm just not on board with him yet. Their schedule is light early, but it really ramps up later in the year. In Week 5, they go to Seattle, then they host there trio of Philly, Indy and Green Bay. That is a brutal homestretch. Four of their last six games are on the road. In Week 12, they have to play the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and they head to New Orleans, host the Falcons, and travel to the Giants and Atlanta in Weeks 13-16. The second half of their schedule is going to give them a lot of problems. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else, but I think the Panthers take a huge step back this year.

Prediction: 4-12 and last place in the NFC South

NFC WEST
1) Seattle Seahawks:
What I Like: Although there were some departures in the offseason, they have still locked up their core players. Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Marshawn Lynch, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, and Michael Bennett are all coming back and will be back for years to come. This is the mainframe of a group that just went to back-to-back Super Bowls. To add to that core, Seattle received TE Jimmy Graham from New Orleans in a trade back in March. The Wilson-Graham combination could be really what this offense needed. You know they are almost unbeatable at home, you know that their defense will bring it every week, and they will use the terrible loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX as motivation all year long. Plus, their division actually got weaker this offseason. They are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they are one of the favorites to get back to a third Super Bowl in a row.

What I Don't Like: Two areas on the Seahawks would worry me a little bit. One would be the offensive line after losing C Max Unger and G James Carpenter. Alvin Bailey and Patrick Lewis aren't household names at this point up front. The other area is depth in the secondary. They lost Byron Maxwell, and you worry about their third and fourth cornerback spots. Did you see Tharold Simon in the Super Bowl? Jeremy Lane won't be 100% by the time the season starts after suffering a wrist and knee injury in the Super Bowl. Kam Chancellor held out all of preseason, so that could also play a factor. Those are the two spots to point to if Seattle struggles. The one tricky spot in their schedule is the beginning when they open at the feisty Rams in Week 1 and travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers in Week 2. They do have road trips to Dallas in Week 8 and Baltimore in Week 14.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC West

2) St. Louis Rams:
What I Like: It is all about that defense in St. Louis. They added LB Akeem Ayers and DT Nick Fairley to a group that has Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, Alec Ogletree and Janoris Jenkins. Jeff Fisher and the front office have comprised one the best young defenses to date in the NFL. Their defense could be scary good against the run, the pass, and in the pass rush department. They added Nick Foles in the offseason and traded away injury-prone Sam Bradford, so if Foles gives them anything like he did in Philly the last two years, that will be a huge upgrade over what the Rams got at QB without Bradford the past two seasons. Also, the move to get Todd Gurley in the draft was a great move and now they can add him with Tre Mason and they have a very explosive running game. The Rams have quietly built themselves a talented team, and they are very close to being that team that makes the leap this year.

What I Don't Like: I know this sounds ridiculous, but the possible announcement/foreshadowing of the Rams moving back to Los Angeles really scares me if I'm a Rams fan. I remember what happened to Browns in 1995 when the news of the move to Baltimore happened during the season and it just destroyed the Browns that year. I could see something similar happening to the Rams this year. You don't know for sure about when the announcement or plans could be made to go to LA, but the Rams are considered the front-runner. If the story starts to leak out during the season, I could see it really wrecking their year. I know it sounds kind of silly, the move to LA and how it affects them is the biggest factor for the Rams success in 2015.

Prediction: 9-7 and a Wild Card berth.

3) Arizona Cardinals:
What I Like: You have to admire the coaching job by Bruce Arians the last two years in Arizona. They go 10-6 in 2013, and they back it up with a 11-5 season and a playoff berth last year after losing Carson Palmer and backup Drew Stanton to season ending injuries during the year. When you watch the job that Arians is doing, you get a feel that the Cardinals are in good shape with him on the sideline. Also, they get Palmer back to start the year, and he was having a really good season before he went down in Week 11. With Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Bruce Ellington back on offense with the addition of G Mike Iupati, Arizona should have a very capable offense. We know their defense is their strength with Calais Campbell, Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, but they also added some key veterans in free agency like Sean Witherspoon, LaMarr Woodley, Alfonzo Dennard and Cory Redding. This team is well-rounded and well-coached and they could be a very big factor in the NFC playoff picture.

What I Don't Like: You have to wonder if they are one of those teams that just got a lot of breaks one year and exceeded expectations to make the playoffs and then they come back down to Earth the following year. I would be worried about that scenario if I'm a Cards fan. You still have to wonder how well Carson Palmer will bounce back from a season-ending injury. Also, losing DC Todd Bowles was probably their biggest loss in the offseason. How well will that defense actually play without him? Their schedule doesn't do any favors for them. They open with New Orleans at home. They have a back-to-back road stretch at Detroit and Pittsburgh in Weeks 5 and 6, and then they come home to play Baltimore in Week 7. They head to Seattle in Week 10 and then host Cincy in Week 11. They finish with Minnesota at home on a Thursday night, travel to Philly, and then host Green Bay and Seattle to finish out the year. That is one tough schedule. I don't know if the Cardinals have it in them to replicate the success they had in the two previous years under Bruce Arians.

Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the NFC West

4) San Francisco 49ers:
What I Like: Well, the Niners did add WR Torrey Smith to go with Anquan Boldin and give Colin Kapernick some other weapons alongside TE Vernon Davis. The addition of Reggie Bush should also help their offense out. Arik Armstead was selected in the first round of the draft, and he might be able to bring some instant pass rush and athleticism to the defensive front. Also, no one is picking the Niners to do anything this year (Frankly, why would they), and maybe this team uses that as motivation and shocks the world and plays way better than people ever would have dreamed of with this group.

What I Don't Like: Every year, one team endures a nightmare offseason, and this year that distinction goes to the 49ers. First, they let go of one of the best coaches in the NFL and the man who resurrected this franchise in Jim Harbaugh. That was their first and probably their worst mistake. Free agents left this team in droves. Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Stevie Johnson, Perrish Cox, and  Chris Culliver all departed. Those were guys that were all key contributors on one of the best teams in the NFL the last four years. Then, the team suffered from a rash of retirements. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Chris Borland, and Anthony Davis all suddenly retired. The losses of Willis and Smith really can't be justified. Ahmad Brooks was indicted on a battery charge as well.  Finally, to top it all off Aldon Smith was arrested again for a DUI and a hit and run, and the 49ers had no choice but to release Smith. Quite an offseason indeed. They have certainly taken a step back in their division and first-time head coach Jim Tomsula doesn't exactly bring the same kind of optimism that Harbaugh brought to this franchise. Their schedule is a very difficult one. Check out their first 10 games: Minnesota, at Pitt, at Arizona, Green Bay, at NY Giants, Baltimore, Seattle on a Thursday Night, at St. Louis, Atlanta and at Seattle. Which game are they going to be favored in? Maybe Week 1 at home to the Vikings. The bottom line is that the Niners have gone through a complete makeover, and it doesn't look like they will be able to recover from it in 2015.

Prediction: 4-12 and last place in the NFC West 




Predictions Cheat Sheet
NFC East
1) Philadelphia (10-6)
2) Dallas (8-8)
3) NY Giants (8-8)
4) Washington (4-12)

NFC North
1) Green Bay (12-4)
2) Minnesota (9-7) Wild Card
3) Chicago (8-8)
4) Detroit (6-10)

NFC South
1) Atlanta (9-7)
2) New Orleans (8-8)
3) Tampa Bay (8-8)
4) Carolina (4-12)

NFC West
1) Seattle (11-5)
2) St. Louis (9-7) Wild Card
3) Arizona (6-10)
4) San Francisco (4-12)


NFC Playoff Seeds and Predictions
1) Green Bay 
2) Seattle
3) Philly
4) Atlanta
5) St. Louis
6) Minnesota

Wild Card Round
6-Minnesota over 3-Philly: The Vikings pull the upset and knock off the Eagles in Philly for their first playoff win since 2009.

4-Atlanta over 5-St. Louis: The Falcons return to the playoffs and take down the feisty Rams.
Divisional Round
4-Atlanta over 2-Seattle: The Falcons pull the upset on the 12th Man in Seattle and advance to the NFC Championship for the second time in four years.

1-Green Bay over 6-Minnesota: Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers to second consecutive NFC Championship Game with a win over one of their rivals.

NFC Championship
1-Green Bay over 4-Atlanta: The Packers put the memory of last year's NFC Championship Game loss to Seattle behind them with a thrilling victory over the Falcons in Lambeau Field. The Packers advance to their sixth Super Bowl appearance.