Thursday, September 29, 2016

Broncos-Bucs and Week 4 Picks!

The Broncos are 3-0 and they went into Cincy last week and bombed the Bengals 29-17 on the heels of Trevor Siemian's four touchdown day. Now, they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the 1-2 Bucs. This game is tricky for Denver because it is the second straight week that they have to go on the road, and it will be very hot and humid in Tampa this Sunday. The Bucs could be dangerous at home and Jameis Winston hasn't played great the last two weeks. I could see the Bucs giving Denver a lot of trouble this week. I'm a little nervous going into this game.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Denver
Final Score: Buccaneers-20 Broncos-17

Last Week's Record: 10-5-1
Overall Record: 28-18-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Indy (-1) over Jacksonville (In London): London gets stuck with another dud game as the NFL returns for the first of three across the pond. Gus Bradley and the Jags are 0-3, and he might not make it back on the plane as head coach if they lose this week to the Colts. Indy is 1-2 and I think they will get to 2-2 after taking care of the Jaguars in London.

Cleveland (+8) over WASHINGTON: The Browns have been competitive the last two weeks, and now they head to DC to take on the 1-2 Redskins. Although they are 0-3, I could see the Browns somehow keeping this close for awhile. I like the way that the Redskins won a key road game at the Giants last week. They will get to 2-2 with a win, but I'm not ready to lay all the points with them.

Buffalo (+6) over NEW ENGLAND: The Pats will win this game, but it feels like this will be a 17-14 or 19-16 kind of victory for them. Bill Belichick just wants to figure out a way to get this game out of the way with a win with a beat up Jimmy Garapolo or Jacoby Brissett. I think the Bills and Tyrod Taylor will keep this game close in the 4th quarter. 

NY JETS (+3) over Seattle: The Seahawks come in at 2-1, but their offensive line is still a huge question mark and Russell Wilson is banged up. Whether he plays or not, I don't think the Seahawks will be able to block the Jets up front. Look for the Jets to get a big home win and get to 2-2.

Carolina (-3) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are 2-1 and head back home to take on the 1-2 Panthers. I'm not worried about the Panthers yet, and I think they will go into Atlanta and Cam Newton will put the team on his back again and get the key win. 

CHICAGO (+3) over Detroit: I don't think the Bears can win but they are 1-8 in their last nine home games and 3-14 in their last 17 games. At some point, they have to win a home game and why not get off the hook with a upset at home against the Lions?

HOUSTON (-6) over Tennessee: The Texans got dumped last Thursday night at New England. They are 2-1, but they just found out this week that J.J. Watt is going to be out for the year after re-injuring his back. I think Bill O'Brien, who did an awful coaching job last week, will be able to sell his team on getting back on track this week. The Titans almost pulled one out last week at home against the Raiders, but fell short and now come into this game at 1-2. This is an intriguing game, but I think the Texans will get the win at home to go to 3-1.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Oakland: The Raiders are 2-1, but they have to make their third long trip back East in four weeks. The Ravens come in at 3-0, but a lot of people are not sold on them yet. I am on the Ravens bandwagon and I think they will be too much to handle for the Raiders this week in Baltimore.

Dallas (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Cowboys are 2-1 and Dak Prescott has played well in his first three games. They head to San Fran to take on the 49ers. This could be a trap game because the 1-2 Niners aren't a better team, but they are at home and I could see the 49ers playing well. I'll take the Cowboys in this spot to get to 3-1, but I am a little nervous about the pick.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New Orleans: The Chargers could easily be 3-0, but they are 1-2 after losing another terrible game late at Indy last week. The Saints are 0-3, and their defense is just a disaster at this point. I think the Chargers will jump all over them early and hold on late to win and get to 2-2.

Los Angeles (+9) over ARIZONA: I haven't liked anything that I have seen out of the Cardinals this year. At 1-2, they lost a terrible game on the road last week to the Bills.  I think they will win this game at home, but I can't just lay the points with them at home here. I think the Rams will keep this game close until the end.

Kansas City (+6) over PITTSBURGH: Good game for Sunday Night Football as the 2-1 Chiefs head to Pittsburgh to take on the 2-1 Steelers. I think the Steelers will rebound after their blowout loss to the Eagles last week, but I think this game will go back and forth. I think it comes down to the end and a three point game late.

New York Giants (+4) over MINNESOTA: The Vikings have been the talk of the NFC with their 3-0 start. Now, they come home and host the 2-1 Giants, who had a bad loss at home last week to the Redskins. I know this looks like a tough game for the Giants, but I have a sneaking suspicion that they will play well on Monday night. I think the G-Men have enough weapons on offense to challenge the Vikings defense and get an upset win in Minnesota.



Bengals-Dolphins Week 4 TNF Pick!

Miami (+7) over CINCINNATI: Both teams come into the game at 1-2. This is a very critical game as the loser will be 1-3 and face an uphill climb the rest of the year. I think the Bengals will win outright, but I have a feeling that the Dolphins will be competitive and keep it close.

Broncos, Siemian Blow Past Bengals 29-17

When you looked at the schedule before the season, this game figured to be a tough one for the Broncos to win. On the road, against a perennial playoff team, with a young QB in a hostile building. All those factors made me believe that the Broncos were in serious danger of losing to the Bengals on Sunday. Fortunately, the Broncos came through with a huge road win to get to 3-0 with a 29-17 victory over the Bengals in Cincy. The Broncos overcame three different deficits and stormed back in the 4th quarter to win going away. It was a tremendous team win, highlighted by Trevor Siemian's huge passing day, and the Broncos get a very impressive win and now sit at 3-0. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game...

1) Trevor Siemian might have had his coming out party. Siemian was very impressive in the 4th quarter. He finished the day 23-35 for 312 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INT. He made some awesome throws-especially on 3rd down. His 41 yard TD throw to Emmanuel Sanders on 3rd down in the second quarter made it 10-7 Denver. His 55 yard bomb to Demaryius Thomas late in the 4th quarter sealed the gamed. He made big throws all afternoon. He hit Sanders with a sweet 7 yard TD pass to make it 16-14 right before halftime. He made big time throws to Jeff Heuerman and Bennie Fowler in the 4th quarter as well. Tip your cap to Siemian because he was really good when it counted on Sunday.

2) Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryus Thomas came back with their best games of the season. Sanders was terrific as he hauled in 9 catches for 117 yards and 2 TDs. He destroyed Adam Jones all day long. Thomas had 6 receptions for 100 yards and the game-clinching score. He also had a huge catch and run in the 4th quarter as well. They both made big plays that helped the Broncos secure the win. That is what you need out of your playmakers on the road.

3) The Broncos defense got gassed on the first drive of the game as Cincy went right down the field and went 74 yards on 5 plays. After that, the Broncos defense settled in and did what they normally do: Create pressure, tackle well, and make big plays. They got four sacks, picked off a pass in the 4th quarter, and created enough pressure to keep Andy Dalton off balance in critical parts of the second half. Tremendous bounce back after a rough first drive.

4) Shane Ray had his best game as a Bronco. He had three sacks, forced numerous pressures, and showed his potential as another key piece to the defense. Von Miller also added a sack late in the game to preserve the win. If Ray can keep this up, who knows how much this defense can grow.

5) The key play early in the game was when Zaire Anderson forced an Adam Jones fumble on a punt in 1st quarter. With Cincy up 7-3 after forcing a Denver 3 and out, the Broncos recovered the fumble on the punt, and they capitalized by getting a touchdown from Siemian to Sanders on the next drive to go up 10-7. That was a huge turning point early on.

6) Another key play was late in the 2nd quarter. A Broncos drive was kept alive after a 3rd down incompletion was nullified by a Bengals defensive holding penalty. The Broncos drive continued and they scored a TD with just 28 seconds left to take a 16-14 lead going into halftime.

7) The Broncos did get the benefit of having 5 first downs due to Bengals penalties. They were also very fortunate because Siemian had two sure fire interceptions dropped in the second quarter. Sometimes you need a break or two on the road to win a game and the Broncos got a few of those on Sunday.

8) Another key play was when late in the game, the Bengals had a 3rd down drop by A.J. Green down 22-17. If he catches the ball, then the Bengals have a first down. Instead, they are forced to punt and Siemian made them pay with the game-winning bomb to DT to put Denver up 29-17.

9) With the huge road win, Denver now stands at 3-0 and atop the AFC West. With the Panthers, Colts and Bengals to start the year, I was not expecting Denver to win all three games, but here they are at 3-0 and they are rolling. I'm not jumping to far ahead of myself, but you have to like what you have seen out of Denver so far. Let's keep the momentum rolling this week as the Broncos travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs. Go Broncos!

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Broncos-Bengals Preview and Week 3 Picks

The Broncos head to Cincy at 2-0 to take on the 1-1 Bengals. You have to be happy with the start the Broncos have had so far in 2016. I think that the defense has been really good, the offense has shown some flashes, and they were able to hold serve at home against the Panthers and Colts. A lot of people didn't think that they would be 2-0 after those first two weeks, but here they are. Now, this week will be challenging. The Broncos are a bit banged up: Virgil Green, Donald Stephenson, and Demarcus Ware are out. Michael Schofield will have to go to RT and we remember how Carlos Dunlap destroyed him last year in Week 16. Plus, this is Trevor Siemian's first road game, so you can see this being a very tough game for the Broncos to win. The Broncos defense will be able to play Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense for a while, but in the end I think the Bengals will be able to get a few more key plays than the Broncos.

CINCY (-3) over Denver:
Final Score: Bengals-24 Broncos-13

Last Week's Record: 10-5-1
Overall Record: 18-13-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Oakland (+2) over TENNESSEE: I liked how the Titans responded and won a big game on the road last at Detroit last week, and the Raiders lost a rough game at home to the Falcons. Both teams come in at 1-1, and you have to worry about Oakland's ability to deal with the early starting time, but I think the Raiders will win another close game and get to 2-1.

BUFFALO (+4.5) over Arizona: I know this game looks like a mismatch on paper, but I'm still not sold on Arizona even after they pasted the Bucs at home to get to 1-1. The Bills are 0-2, fired their offensive coordinator after last Thursday's loss to the Jets. They look like a team in dysfunction, but I could see Rex Ryan rallying the troops this week. I know this might come back to bite me, but I think the Bills could pull the upset.

Baltimore (-1) over JACKSONVILLE: Gus Bradley is 12-38 in 50 games as Jacksonville coach. That is awful. I don't know if he will make it back from the London trip in a few weeks, if he doesn't win a game soon.The Jags come in at 0-2 after getting killed by the Chargers in Week 2. At 2-0, the Ravens have beaten the Bills and the Browns, so many people are not buying them just yet. I am in on the Ravens this year, and I see them going to Jacksonville and get the win.

MIAMI (-7) over Cleveland: The Dolphins are 0-2, but they traveled to Seattle and New England the first two weeks. Now, they come home to take on the 0-2 Browns. I have to think that the Dolphins should beat up on the Browns this week because if they don't, then their season is really in trouble.

Washington (+4) over NY GIANTS: I would be nervous to bet the Giants this week, but I think they will continue to ride the positive start to their season, and the G-Men should get to 3-0 by taking down the 0-2 Redskins. Washington comes in to the game in disarray and there is already finger pointing and dissension in the locker room. Look for the Giants win, but you know they will make their fans sweat it out.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Detroit: I think the paranoia about the Packers and their offense is a little overstated at this point. I think they will right the ship after falling to the Vikings in Week 2 to fall to 1-1. The Packers lost to the Lions at home last year, and I don't see them losing again to them in Lambeau this year.

Minnesota (+7) over CAROLINA: Good early game on Sunday in the NFC. I like the Panthers to win the game at home, but I see the Vikings keeping this game close. This should be a fun battle between two teams with really solid defenses.

San Francisco (+10) over SEATTLE: I can't see Seattle losing at home this week to the 49ers, but I could see the Niners keeping this game close. The Seahawks are struggling on offense because of their offensive line, and Russell Wilson is banged up with an ankle injury. Their offense will come around at some point, but until then, I think they will be in a lot of close games that Wilson will have to bail them out at the end. This week could be another one of those games.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Los Angeles: The Bucs got toasted on the road in Arizona last week, and come home at 1-1 to take on the 1-1 Rams. I worry about the Bucs offense against the Rams defense, but I think Jameis Winston will have a nice bounce back game after looking terrible last week in the loss to the Cardinals.

PHILADELPHIA (+4) over Pittsburgh: The 2-0 Eagles take on the 2-0 Steelers in the battle of Pennsylvania. You have to like what your have seen out of Carson Wentz so far, but everyone needs to slow down on him becoming the next great NFL QB. I like this game and I think that this will be a fun game to watch. I think this comes down to a field goal, and I'll take the home underdog.

NY Jets (+4) over KANSAS CITY: This is a fun game late on Sunday afternoon on CBS. This is a game between two potential playoff teams. Normally, I would take KC at home, but without their best pass rusher, I think the Jets will be able to move the ball on them. I can see the Jets winning or at least getting the backdoor cover.

INDY (-3) over San Diego: At 0-2, the Colts season is in jeopardy. They HAVE to win this game to basically save their season. The Chargers come in at 1-1 after pounding the Jags at home, and they could easily be 2-0 after blowing the game at KC in Week 1. I think Andrew Luck will find a way to win this game, but don't be surprised if the Chargers keep this close.

DALLAS (-7) over Chicago: The Bears are just bad. They are 0-2 and their blowout loss at home to the Eagles in Week 2 was just brutal to watch. Now, Jay Cutler is hurt, and they lost Lamar Houston for the season. The Cowboys are 1-1 after a thrilling win in Washington in Week 2. NBC can't be too thrilled for this game on Sunday Night Football, and I can't see the Cowboys blowing this game at home in primetime.

Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: You would figure that the Saints will win this game at home after losing their first two games in crushing fashion. I liked how the Falcons came back and won a key road game in Oakland last week to get to 1-1. I think that the Falcons are a risky pick, but I feel like it is too obvious to take the Saints at home here.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Texans-Patriots Week 3 TNF Pick

NEW ENGLAND (+1) over Houston: The Pats are 2-0 but now have to turn to third-string QB Jacoby Brissett after Jimmy Garapolo went down with a shoulder injury. The Texans come in at 2-0 and so far Brock Osweiler looks really good, and their defense is playing well. The fact that this game is on Thursday night makes it tough to pick either way, but I am done going against the Pats and doubting Bill Belichick. I'm not getting sucked into picking the Texans on a short week in Foxboro.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Broncos Defense Sacks Colts in 34-20 Week 2 Win!

The Colts had been a thorn in the side of the Broncos in recent years. This time around on Sunday the tables were turned. Denver's defense stepped up in the 4th quarter, turned the game around with an Aqib Talib interception return for a touchdown, and then they put it away with none other than Von Miller strip-sacking Andrew Luck late in the game, forcing a fumble, and Shane Ray scooped it up and rumbled into the endzone for the game-clinching score. Denver won 34-20, and the game was close throughout because of the inability of Denver's offense to get touchdowns in the redzone and the ability of Luck to keep his team in the game on his own. The Broncos got some revenge on Luck and the Colts, who had been 3-1 against the Broncos in his short career. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game.............

1) The Broncos offense continues to move the ball up and down the field on opponents so far this season. Against the Colts, the Broncos did the same. They were able to run and throw at their will, but still only put up one offensive touchdown out of the 34 they scored. I liked the run game once again with C.J. Anderson, who rumbled for 74 yards and a touchdown. Devontae Booker had a bounce back game with 51 yards on the ground. The Broncos moved the ball effectively on the first drive, but Brandon McManus missed a 54 yard field goal. The second drive featured a McManus 23 yard field goal. On the fourth drive, the Broncos capped off a 69 yard drive with a Anderson 4 yard TD run. Trevor Siemian got picked off on a WR screen at the Indy 20 on the next drive, but the Broncos got a field goal right before the half on the last drive before the half to make it 13-6 heading into the second half. They got a field goal on their first drive of the 3rd quarter to make it 16-13. They were able to drive for a field goal to make it 26-20 with 1:51 left in the game. The offense had a nice balance, moved at a solid pace, and if they were able to finish off some of these drives with touchdowns, then this game would not have been close at all.

2) I continue to like what I see from Trevor Siemian. He looks poised, in control of the offense, and he threw a lot of good balls on Sunday. His stats weren't outstanding (22-33 for 266 yards 0 TD and 1 INT) but if you watched the game you could see that he played well. His one interception was on a WR screen that Darius Butler read and then picked off, but other than that, Siemian made some big time throws-especially to Demaryius Thomas. He threw the intermediate passes very well, and I love how he got Virgil Green involved on some key drives. I like what I have so far out of Siemian, and I thought he definitely played well.

3) The Broncos defense is not the same as it was last year, but it still a very good and at times dominant defense. They had their moments where they fell asleep on drives, but if it wasn't for Luck bailing out the Colts, this defense would have given up nothing all day to the Colts. In a close game with the Broncos up 3 in the 4th quarter, Talib steps in front of a Luck pass and takes it 46 yards for a touchdown and a 23-13 lead. Then, with the game on the line and the Colts down 26-20, Von Miller does his thing and strip sacks Luck and Shane Ray scoops it up and scores to put the game away for good. I thought they tackled better in this game, harassed Luck with 5 sacks, and got 2 defensive touchdowns. That is a hell of a day in my book. Derek Wolfe was awesome with 1.5 sacks and Miller added 3 sacks. Chris Harris held T.Y. Hilton to only 2 catches when he was guarding him. The Broncos are a defensive team, and once again their defense stepped up to win the game for them.

4) What else can you say about Von Miller? He has 3 sacks in the game, and he essentially wins the game for the Broncos with his strip of Luck at the end. In his last four games including the post season, he has single-handedly won the AFC Championship, the Super Bowl, and this past game. It is unbelievable to watch how he can win a game from a defensive position. He is the most dominant defensive player I've seen since Lawrence Taylor. I'm not kidding. He is that dominant.

5) This game could have easily been a blowout, but the Broncos offensive struggles in the redzone and Luck's brilliance kept the Colts in the game.

6) The game did have some key injuries on the Broncos side of the ball. RT Donald Stephenson left with a calf injury and he could miss a couple of weeks. TE Virgil Green left with a calf injury and he is day-to-day and Demarcus Ware broke a bone in his forearm and he is out 4-6 weeks.

7) The Broncos are 2-0 and when you looked at the schedule before the season, you had to be cautious to think that they would be 2-0 with Cam Newton and Andrew Luck coming to town in back-to-back weeks. Next week comes a big test: Their first road game of the season at Cincy. This will be a big test for young QB Trevor Siemian as he faces a really good defense on the road. With the defense that the Broncos bring to the table, they will have a chance in every game. Go Broncos!

Friday, September 16, 2016

Broncos-Colts Preview and Week 2 Picks

On paper the Broncos are a better team than the Colts. Outsider of Andrew Luck, the Broncos have a superior team. This has been the case for the past few seasons, but for some reason the Colts just seem to have their number. Luck is 3-1 against Denver since 2013. For that reason alone, I think this game is dangerous. I am worried about the hip injury to Demaryius Thomas, and you still can't trust or put all your faith in Trevor Siemian. This game looks so one-sided in the Broncos direction, but the Colts and Luck seem to be a thorn in their side. This game worries me.

Indy (+6) over DENVER
Final Score: Colts-24 Broncos-23


Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 8-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+5) over DETROIT: Should the Lions be favored by 5 over anyone at this point? Give them credit for getting the win over the Colts last week after blowing the big lead. I like the Lions to win this game, but I think the Titans will make it a close game. The Titans need to start winning some games soon.

HOUSTON (-2) over Kansas City: You have to like what you saw out of Brock Osweiler last week in the win over Chicago. Houston looks like the odds on favorite in the AFC South. The Chiefs come in after a thrilling comeback win over the Chargers. Fun matchup between two 1-0 teams. I think the Texans exact revenge for last year's playoff loss.

Miami (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: My first upset pick of the week. The Pats surprised everyone by winning on the road at Arizona in Week 1 without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Everyone is on the Jimmy Garopolo bandwagon, but I think that the Dolphins will surprise them and play well. Just like in 2008 when they shocked them in Foxboro after Matt Cassel had an impressive debut with the Pats. I think the Fish pull the upset of the day.

CLEVELAND (+7) over Baltimore: The Ravens are winning this game, but I don't think they are winning by more than a touchdown on the road. Josh McCown starts for the injured RG III for the Browns, and that might be a positive for them.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincinnati: In a rematch of that wild, crazy Wild Card game from last year, the Steelers and Bengals meet once again here in Week 2.I liked what I saw from the Steelers and their offense on Monday night in their win over the Redskins. I was impressed how the Bengals fought back and beat the Jets in Jersey in Week 1. Fun game and one of the best of the weekend. I'll take the Steelers to win the game at home.

Dallas (+3) over WASHINGTON: Another fun rivalry game between two teams that are 0-1 after the first week. I think Dallas will be able to do enough to win a few games with Dak Prescott at QB. I didn't like anything that I saw out of the Redskins on MNF last week. I'll take the Cowboys to get the tough road win in DC.

New Orleans (+6) over NY GIANTS: This is one of those games that Eli Manning and the Giants blow at home. It has all the makings of an easy Giants win, but somehow they seem to screw these games up at home every year. I think the G-Men win the game, but I think Drew Brees will keep this game close and it will come down to the last possession.

CAROLINA (-13) over San Francisco:
The 49ers played late Monday night, have to go across the country, and take on the Panthers in a 1:00 start on Sunday. That is a recipe for disaster.

Tampa Bay (+7) over ARIZONA: My second upset pick of the week. I like this Bucs team after what I saw in their Week 1 win over the Falcons. Now, they head to Arizona to take on a Cards team that is scratching their heads after losing that game to the Pats on SNF. I'm going with my gut on this one, and I like the Bucs to pull the upset on the road.

Seattle (-7) over LOS ANGELES:
NFL football officially returns to LA for the first time since 1994. The fans of the LA Rams get the chance to see a team that got waxed 28-0 to the lowly 49ers in Week 1. In come the Seahawks, who survived a Week 1 scare to Miami, in a game that the Rams usually play well in. I could see the Rams playing inspired in front of the LA crowd, but the Seahawks will impose their will and win by more than a touchdown.

Atlanta (+6) over OAKLAND: The Raiders pulled of a wild win over the Saints in New Orleans after going for the two-point conversion late to win 35-34. The Falcons looked lifeless in falling behind 31-13 to Tampa Bay before making a comeback and falling short 31-24. I think this might be my third upset pick of the week. EVERYONE is picking the Raiders to roll this week, but I think Matt Ryan and the Falcons will find a way to get it done in the Black Hole.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Jacksonville: The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead in Arrowhead and lost to the Chiefs 33-27 in overtime. That game stings. The Jags played well but lost a close one to the Packers 27-23 at home last week. A battle of two 0-1 teams that don't want to start 0-2. I like the Chargers at home to get to 1-1.

Green Bay (-2) over MINNESOTA: Sam Bradford looks like he will start this week at home as the Vikings will debut their brand new stadium. The Vikings took care of business last week with Shaun Hill starting as they scored two defensive TDs to beat up on the Titans. The Packers won a close game at Jacksonville, and now head to Minnesota for SNF. I like the Packers and Aaron Rodgers in this one, and I look for them to win and start the year 2-0.

CHICAGO (-3) over Philadelphia: Carson Wentz looked really good in his debut last week against the Browns. The Eagles now head to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Bears were outclassed last week in Houston in the loss to the Texans, but they played well for a while. I think that the Bears will take care of business at home on Monday Night Football.






Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Jets-Bills TNF Week 2 Pick

Jets (-1) over BUFFALO: I hated the way the Bills started the season. Their offense looked terrible in the loss to the Ravens, and now they are dealing with injuries on the offensive line and Sammy Watkins has a banged up foot. I thought the Jets-Bengals game was a toss up and I think the Jets will get the big road win in Buffalo on a short week.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Broncos Outlast Panthers in Season Opener 21-20

The Broncos opened the 2016 NFL season on the Thursday night kickoff opener in a rematch of Super Bowl 50 with the Carolina Panthers. It was a game that served as a celebration of last year's Super Bowl championship, and it also turned the page and officially turned to 2016. The Broncos won 21-20 as Graham Gano missed a 50 yard field goal with a few seconds left, and Denver survived, like they did virtually all of last season, to win the opener in dramatic fashion. The Broncos trailed 17-7 heading into the 4th quarter, and they were able to comeback take the lead and then get the fortunate break at the end on the missed kick. It was a great night overall for the Broncos and their fans, and it was great to see football back. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game....

1) I loved the pre-game celebration. The Broncos introduced Terrell Davis with the Super Bowl XXXII Lombardi Trophy, John Elway with the Super Bowl XXXIII Lombardi Trophy, and finally Peyton Manning with the Super Bowl 50 Lombardi Trophy. It was a very cool scene and the crowd was going nuts. Three Super Bowl wins in my lifetime is pretty special, and to see that introduction was very cool.

2) The Broncos offense with Trevor Siemian at QB moved the ball very well. The only problem was they kept shooting themselves in the foot. Three times through the first three quarters did they turn the ball over inside the Panthers 30. Devontae Booker fumbled on the first drive of the game, Siemian got intercepted on the next drive on a tipped pass, and he got picked off again in the 3rd quarter on a under thrown pass. This game might have been a run away if Denver didn't turn it over those three times.

3) I thought Siemian played well in his first ever start. His stats weren't amazing (18-26 for 178 yards 1 TD and 2 INT) but he played with poise, made some really nice throws, and looked like the moment wasn't too big for him.

4) The Broncos defense really missed Malik Jackson. I thought Jared Crick did well at times, but Denver really missed Jackson's presence in the run game and in passing situations. The Broncos defense overall was a mess in the first half. They had 12 men on the field multiple times, they were missing tackles, and their secondary looked a step slow. When Chris Harris got beat by Kelvin Benjamin for the games first touchdown to make it 7-0 Carolina in the 1st quarter, that was a shocking moment. Harris very rarely gets beat for a touchdown.

5) How about FB Andy Janovich rumbling for a 28 yard touchdown on a fullback dive play to tie it at 7?

6) The sequence at the end of the half was bad for Denver. They give up a running TD to Cam Newton to make it 14-7 Panthers, and then they go 3 and out and give the ball back to Carolina, who then march down the field and get a field goal right before the half to make it 17-7 at the half. I also don't have a problem with Kubiak throwing the ball for a first down right before the half. A first down there ends the half.

7) Give the Broncos credit. They were down 17-7 heading into the 4th quarter, and they turned the ball over 3 times in Carolina territory, and they fought back to take the lead. After Siemian found C.J. Anderson, who played great in the game, on a screen pass for a 25 yard touchdown to make it 17-14, the Broncos defense finally got the turnover they were looking for and Chris Harris intercepted Cam Newton on a deflected pass. Denver immediately turned it into points at Anderson plowed forward for a 1 yard TD run to make it 21-17. That showed a lot of character to come back like that in this game on this stage.

8) The Broncos defense really played better in the second half. The pass rush started to get to Newton, and the run defense was better. Demarcus Ware was an absolute beast getting 1 and 1/2 sacks and Von Miller got a huge sack on Cam on the final drive. Their tackling was better and their secondary play was better in the second half as well. I know the Broncos caught a break when Gano missed the field goal at the end, but that offset the absolute awful defensive holding call on Chris Harris on 4th and 21 earlier in the drive. Kelvin Benjamin had a hand in Harris' facemask and it was a terrible call that almost decided the game.

9) I loved Gary Kubiak's play calling early in the game, and I think he did a great job throughout the night. He kept Siemian under control and kept the Panthers off balance. He seems happy to have his full offense back after trying to mix it with Peyton Manning last year.

10) I thought the atmosphere was great and the game was a fun game to start the year. Obviously, I am happy with the outcome, but overall it was an exciting kickoff opener. I thought I would be more relaxed this year after the Broncos won the Super Bowl last year, but I was nervous as heck in that 4th quarter and on that last drive.

11) The Broncos are now 1-0, and will have 10 days to prepare for the Colts in Denver next Sunday. Great night, great win, Go Broncos!

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back, and Week 1 is here with some interesting matchups. Remember, the first week of the season is always tough to pick games, so it is important just to survive this week with a decent record. Here we go with the picks for Week 1....

Last Year's Record: 131-128-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


ATLANTA (-3) over Tampa Bay:
I think the Falcons will get off to a good start to the season and they will take care of business at home in Week 1 over the Bucs.

TENNESSEE (+3) over Minnesota:
Week 1 can be surprising, and I'm sure a lot people will be picking the Vikings, but I like the Titans at home here to start the season. Maybe they don't win outright, but I think it will be a close game. I think the uncertainty at the QB situation in Minnesota with Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford will play a major factor here.

PHILLY (-4) over Cleveland:
The Eagles might have a rough year but they will jump all over the RG III-led Browns and cruise to an easy opening week victory. Carson Wentz makes his first start of his career after barely playing in the preseason.

NY JETS (+3) over Cincy:
I like the Jets in this spot as a home underdog to the Bengals. I have to see how the season plays out for Cincy because I think they will take a step back this year. The Jets have a very tough early season schedule, so they need to get this win at home and I think they will.

NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Oakland:
Drew Brees and Sean Payton might have a chip on their shoulder, and I expect them to put up a pretty solid performance at home in the Superdome to start the year with a win over the Raiders.

San Diego (+7) over KANSAS CITY:
This could be a tough spot for the Chargers to go to Arrowhead and play in an early game in KC, but San Diego always plays the Chiefs tough, and I think this will be a tight game once again.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Buffalo:
Buffalo's disastrous offseason translates into a rough Week 1 as they head to Baltimore. The Ravens are ready to put 2015 behind them and they will take care of the Bills at home.

HOUSTON (-4) over Chicago:
Simply put, the Texans are a better team, and I look for them to get an easy win over the Bears in Houston.

JACKSONVILLE (+5) over Green Bay:
There are some expectations for the Jags this year, and I am intrigued by this game for Week 1. I think this game is close, and I look for a Packers drive led by Aaron Rodgers to pull it out, but it will be a good game throughout.

SEATTLE (-9) over Miami:
The Dolphins get a rough draw to start the year as they have to head all the way to Seattle and deal with the 12th Man. The Seahawks will jump all over the Dolphins and put them away early.

NY Giants (PICK) over DALLAS:
The late afternoon game that is featured in Week 1 is the Giants heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. These games are always close and I expect another tight game, but I'll the underdog G-Men in a game that could go either way. I can't see the Giants losing the opener to Dak Prescott.

INDY (-4) over Detroit:
Look for the Colts to come out of the gate and play well in Week 1-especially Andrew Luck.

ARIZONA (-5) over New England:
No Tom Brady for the Pats, so Jimmy Garopolo gets the start on the road on NBC Sunday Night Football. I think he will have a tough time going up against that Arizona defense. Look for the Cardinals to take down the Pats.

WASHINGTON (+4) over Pittsburgh:
This is the first game of the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader. I think the Steelers will win the game, but look for a close game and a game that comes down to the end.

SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Los Angeles:
The Rams are back in Los Angeles but they start the season on the road in San Francisco in Week 1 as part of the second game of the MNF doubleheader. I think the 49ers are in for a long season, but they will win this game as a home underdog to start the year.


Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Broncos-Panthers Preview and Pick

As defending Super Bowl Champions, the Broncos get the opportunity to open the season at home on the Thursday night kickoff opener. Not only do they get to celebrate their title and kickoff the new season, they host the Panthers in a rematch of Super Bowl 50. A lot has changed since the Broncos lined up with the Panthers in February. Peyton Manning is retired, Brock Osweiler is in Houston, and Trevor Siemian is now the starting QB. It will be a very tough matchup for the Broncos as the Panthers will come in with a chip on their shoulder from the loss in the Super Bowl. I think the Broncos defense will play well, but I have a hard time seeing Siemian or the Broncos offense muster enough to outlast the Panthers and Cam Newton. In 1999, the Broncos opened the season on Monday Night Football as back-to-back Super Bowl Champs, and they promptly got beat by the Miami Dolphins. I expect the same result in this matchup as Carolina will come to Denver and ruin the Broncos celebration

Carolina (-3) over DENVER:

Final Score: Panthers-27 Broncos-10

Saturday, September 3, 2016

2016 NFL Predictions: Part 2-AFC

After previewing the NFC, here is the preview and the predictions for the AFC....

AFC East
1) New York Jets:
What I Like: They were able to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick right before training camp started, and that was the move they needed to make. Fitzpatrick had his best year ever as a Jet in 2015, and you can tell how important he was to this team and his teammates, so the fact that he was able to come back this year was enormous. With WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and RB Matt Forte, the Jets have plenty of pieces in place to help Fitzpatrick once again on offense. If they can get a healthy Ryan Clady to play to his potential, then their offensive line should be solid. Their defense has plenty of key pieces to be solid once again. Muhammad Wilkerson is signed long term, and with Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams on that defensive line, they can be a dominant group. I like the addition of DT Steve McClendon to that group as well. CB Darrelle Revis is still a top player in the secondary, and overall the defense should be a very good group. They are right there with the other teams in their division as far as talent goes, and with Tom Brady missing the first four games due to suspension, the door might be open for them to break through and win the division. If they can get through their murderous first 7 games, then they could be in line for a playoff berth.

What I Don't Like: I just hate their schedule to start the season. They host Cincy in Week 1, then they travel to Buffalo on a short week for a Thursday night game, then go to KC in Week 3. They host Seattle in Week 4, then they have back-to-back road games at Pitt and at Arizona in Weeks 5 and 6. They then have to host the Ravens in Week 7. You can make the case that they could start 1-6 or 2-5. If that happens, then they are done. They also have a back end to their schedule that features 2 games against the Pats (Weeks 12 and 16) and home games against Indy, Miami, and Buffalo. Plus, can you count on Fitzpatrick playing as well as he did in 2015? Also, although they went 10-6 in 2015, they beat up on a lot of weak teams and the schedule broke well for them last year. I'm still not sold on HC Todd Bowles as well. I don't know if he is a good enough coach to help them make the playoffs in 2016.
Prediction: 10-6 and Winners of the AFC East

2) New England Patriots:
What I Like: They are the Patriots and they still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (after serving a four game suspension to start the year). I love the addition of TE Martellus Bennett, and I think he will provide a solid 1-2 punch with Rob Gronkowski. They also added WR Chris Hope and I could see him doing a lot of damage in this offense with Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. If they can stay healthy on the offensive line, then they will be fine down the stretch when Brady comes back. I love the addition of DE Chris Long. You know he will have a really good year under Belichick. Their defense was good last year, and they should be good again this year. Plus, the motivation they will have with the Brady suspension will be off the charts. This team doesn't need to have a chip on their shoulder, but they will have a big one considering Brady is out for the first four games. They will have an "Us against the World" mentality, and I think that will be very dangerous for the rest of the AFC. If they can stay afloat with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB while Brady is out, then there is no doubt they can rip off a lot of wins in a row when #12 comes back.

What I Don't Like: You can't just lose Tom Brady, one of the greatest QBs of all time, for the first four games of the season and expect everything to be just fine. There is no way to replace Brady, and I don't think people are really understanding how important he is to this franchise. He is missing a quarter of the season. They have injuries on the offensive line to start the year again, and RB Dion Lewis is out for an undetermined amount of time. Rob Ninkovich is also going to miss the first four games due to a suspension. I don't think it will be business as usual for the Pats to start the year. They travel to Arizona, and then they host Miami, Houston, and Buffalo in Weeks 2-4. All those teams have defenses that can get after the QB, and those will not be easy games to win-even at home. Even after Brady comes back, the schedule doesn't get easy. They have Cincy, at Pitt, at Buffalo, and Seattle in Weeks 6-9, then a trip to the Jets in Week 11, and a trip to Miami in Week 17. They are going to have to win a lot of tough games after Brady comes back if they start off slow without him.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3)
Buffalo Bills:
What I Like: The Bills were very close to breaking through and making the playoffs last year in Rex Ryan's first year as head coach. They can finally break down that wall this year because I like the energy that Ryan brings to this franchise. They had nothing to play for in Week 17 last year and they still knocked the Jets out of the playoffs by beating them. I like Tyrod Taylor at QB. I'm not saying he is a franchise QB, but he played solid enough to be a winning quarterback for this team. They have plenty of weapons around him. Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Robert Woods all can provide enough firepower to give the Bills a chance to be a very good offensive team. Now that Rex Ryan has had a year with this team, I expect him to build a better defense than they had in 2015. They still have DT Kyle Williams, OLB Jerry Hughes, CB Stephon Gilmore, and CB Ronald Darby on that unit. You have to think that Rex will find a way to get this defense molded into his favor. Their schedule is favorable on the back end. They have four out of their last six games at home (Jax, Pitt, Cleve, Miami) and they have a three game homestand in that stretch in Weeks 14-16. They also get the Jets in Week 2 at home on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Their biggest break is the fact that Tom Brady is suspended for the first four weeks, and they get the Pats on the road in Week 4 when Brady is still out. Even if they get off to a slow start, the division won't be out of reach.

What I Don't Like:  They have had a pretty awful and disastrous offseason and training camp. They had to release promising running back Karlos Williams. Their best defensive player, Marcel Dareus, left the team to enter rehab. If he comes back from that, he is facing a 4 game suspension.  They drafted DE Shaq Lawson in the first round of the draft, but he will miss most of the year due to shoulder surgery. ILB Reggie Ragland was drafted in the 2nd round, but he will miss the entire season due to an ACL injury. You worry about the fact that if Taylor regresses at QB, then they are in deep trouble. It is so hard to break through in their division because of the dominance of the Patriots, but the Jets and Dolphins are right there with them as far as talent is concerned. Their schedule could give them fits in Weeks 7-10 when they travel to Miami, host NE, go to Seattle, and travel to Cincy. A trip to the Jets in Week 17 could also be problematic. For a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs since 1999, nothing will be easy for them to get back into the playoffs this year.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the AFC East

4) Miami Dolphins:
What I Like: The talent is there for this team. They have Ryan Tannehill, Mike Pouncey, and Jarvis Landry on offense, and Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, and Reshad Jones on defense. They added Mario Williams, Kiko Alonso, and Byron Maxwell in free agency, and they had OT Laremy Tunsil fall to them at #13 in the first round of the draft. There are pieces in place for this team to finally take the next step. They got rid of one of the worst head coaches in the NFL when they fired Joe Philbin last year, and new head coach Adam Gase comes in and he is highly regarded around the league as the next big thing as far as head coaches is concerned. Perhaps that was all that this team needed to finally get over the hump, and if Gase can get Tannehill to take the next step in his career, then this team can make a move to the playoffs this year. They get a break since they travel to NE in Week 2 and Tom Brady will be suspended for that game. They also have a three game homestand in Weeks 5-7 when they host Tenn, Pitt, and Buffalo, and then they have a bye in Week 8 and host the Jets in Week 9. That is essentially a four game home stretch and they will spend the entire month of October in South Florida.

What I Don't Like: Outside of Jarvis Landry, who really scares you on this Dolphins offense? Maybe Jordan Cameron can be effective. Maybe Devante Parker can step up in his second year. They lost Lamar Miller to free agency. They really don't have another big time weapon to compliment Landry. Also, I know that Gase comes in very heralded as a QB guru and offensive mind, but he has never been a head coach before. It is one thing to be a good offensive coordinator, but it is another thing to be a first time head coach. Let's not paint this guy as the next Bill Belichick just yet. Also, they lost Olivier Vernon and Brent Grimes on that defense as well. The back end of their schedule does them no favors at all. They travel to Baltimore in Week 13, host Arizona in Week 14, travel to the Jets and Buffalo in Weeks 15 and 16 and they host Tom Brady and the Pats in Week 17. That is a rough stretch to end the year. I could see the bottom falling out on them in December. Every year I think the Dolphins are going to be a breakout team and make the playoffs and every year they disappoint me. I just won't buy into them until I actually see it.

Prediction: 7-9 and last place in the AFC East.

AFC North
1) Pittsburgh Steelers:
What I Like: When you have Ben Roethlisberger at QB, and Mike Tomlin as your Head Coach, then your team has a really good chance to be a Super Bowl contender. They are paired with Antonio Brown, who is one of the best players in the NFL, and Le'veon Bell, and the Steelers offense will be explosive once again. Even with the yearlong suspension of WR Martavis Bryant and the four game suspension of Bell, the Steelers should be able to replace them with DeAngelo Williams and Markus Wheaton respectively. I also love the addition of TE Ladarius Green in free agency. Defensively, their secondary was pretty bad last year, but they drafted two CBs in the first two rounds of the draft, and their front seven was coming along last year too. I think they will be able to score with anyone in the league. Their schedule is friendly. A lot of their tough non-division games are at home: KC in Week 4, the Jets in Week 5, the Pats in Week 7, Dallas in Week 10, and the Giants in Week 13. They also finish with back-to-back home games to finish the season with Baltimore and Cleveland in Weeks 16 and 17. This is a team that should be primed to make a run at a Super Bowl from the AFC.

What I Don't Like: You can't be happy to see an emerging talent like Bryant miss the entire season due to a substance abuse violation. It will also hurt them to see Bell miss the first three games as well. Bell and Bryant add to that explosive nature to that offense. You still have to worry about their secondary, and overall this team seems to always battle health and injury concerns. Big Ben takes a beating every week, and if he goes down for a period of time once again, then the Steelers are in trouble. They are in a tough division and the battles with the Bengals and Ravens could take a toll on them as the year goes on.

Prediction: 11-5 and Winners of the AFC North

2) Baltimore Ravens:
What I Don't Like: If there is a clear cut candidate for a bounce back team this year, then the Ravens fit that mold. They got completely ravaged by injuries last season, and they stumbled to an uncharacteristic 5-11 season, while losing nine games by eight points or less. They can easily return to form this year. Joe Flacco comes back from injury, and I still consider him a big-time QB in the league. I like Kamar Aiken at WR, and Steve Smith comes back from injury as well. If they can get something out of Mike Wallace, then Flacco will have some solid weapons on the outside. I like the selection of OT Ronnie Stanley in the first round of the draft. I think their defense will be better this year and Terrell Suggs will be back from a season-ending injury last year, and he will once again team up with Elvis Dumervil to form a solid pass rush. Also, they added Eric Weddle to come in at safety in free agency, and he seems like he will be a perfect fit in Baltimore. Their schedule gives them a chance to get off to a good start. Here are their first five games: vs. Buffalo, at Cleve, at Jax, vs. Oak, and vs. Washington. That looks like a 4-1 start to me. Head Coach John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league, and I expect him to right the ship and get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2016.

What I Don't Like: Their offensive line is still a bit of a question, and if Stanley struggles as a rookie the loss of Kelechi Osemele will grow larger for this group. If Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman don't return to form from injuries, then they might struggle to put up enough points. Don't forget newly acquired TE Ben Watson tore his Achilles in the first preseason game and is out for the year. The same can be said about Terrell Suggs on defense. Although their schedule is favorable in the beginning of the year, it gets pretty tough down the stretch. From Weeks 11-17 they go to Dallas, host Cincy and Miami, head to NE, host Philly, and go to Pittsburgh and Cincy. That is a rough way to end the season. I'm also concerned that they don't match up in talent with the Steelers and the Bengals in their division.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3) Cincinnati Bengals:
What I Like: Before Andy Dalton went down to injury last year in Week 14, they were probably the most complete team in the AFC and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. When you look at their roster, they still have a very talented group of young players. Dalton was on fire last year before he got hurt, and he still has A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard to go along with that solid offensive line. Their defense still features Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, Adam Jones, and George Iloka. They added Karlos Dansby in free agency to provide some veteran leadership to that defense. They have made the playoffs five years in a row and six out of the last seven seasons, but they have failed to win a playoff game each time, and last year they suffered about as brutal of a loss as possible when they got beat by Pittsburgh 18-16. If there was ever a team that was due to breakthrough and win a playoff game, this Bengals team fits the bill. Maybe it is finally their time.

What I Don't Like: It has nothing to do with anything on the field because I think that the Bengals are still a talented team, but I think this is all mental for them at this point. The way that they lost that playoff game to the Steelers last year was just insane. They had the game won, Jeremy Hill fumbled, and then Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones melted down. I just can't see them overcoming that this season. They have been to the playoff five years in a row and six of the last seven seasons and they have 0 playoff wins to show for it. I just don't think they will recover from that this season. Throw in the losses of Marvin Jones and Mohammad Sanu on offense, and there is a chance Andy Dalton won't be the same player he was last year. Their schedule is tough early on. They go to the Jets and Pitt in Weeks 1 and 2. They host Denver in Week 3, and then they have to go to Dallas and NE in Weeks 5 and 6. I just don't think the Bengals will have it to make it back to the playoffs again this year.

Prediction: 7-9 and third place in the AFC North

4) Cleveland Browns:
What I Like: Hue Jackson brings a new energy and excitement to the franchise and he is someone that could eventually change the culture of this franchise. At least they were able to get rid of the Johnny Manziel headache by releasing him this offseason, and that distraction is gone. Perhaps Robert Griffin III gets his career on track and gains some chemistry with 1st round pick WR Corey Coleman. Josh Gordon returns after a four game suspension and perhaps he can add to that mix along with the emerging Gary Barnidge at TE. Hey, things can only go up in Cleveland at this point. The Cavs won the NBA title in June, so maybe that positive karma can carry over to the Browns.

What I Don't Like: When you are banking on RG III to win your QB job, then you team is in trouble. It would be a good story, but I just can't see it turning out well in the end. They just don't have enough talent. They are in a tough division, and they are clearly behind the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens as far as talent is concerned. They are in rebuild move and it shows. They drafted 14 players in the draft with the idea of building for the future. This team isn't ready to compete this year, and they know it.

Prediction: 3-13 and last place in the AFC North

AFC South
1) Indianapolis Colts:
What I Like: No one had more of a nightmare year than Andrew Luck last year. Luck is still the best young QB going forward in the league, and I would expect him to come back and have a big bounce back year this year. He can literally carry this team to a playoff spot in the AFC. Overall, the whole team just didn't perform up to standard last year. They did keep head coach Chuck Pagano around, and I think that will help them that they didn't switch coaches. They did enough to help their offensive line, and I love the pick of C Ryan Kelly in the 1st round of the draft. Luck still has T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, and Donte Moncrief to help him out in the passing game. On defense, I like the pass rushing combination of Kendall Langford and Robert Mathis. Their schedule can help them early on. They have home games against Detroit, SD, and Chicago in the first 5 games. They have Jacksonville in London in Week 4 and a trip to Denver in Week 3, so they can definitely get off to a good start.This team isn't perfect on paper, but they will have a chip on their shoulder after they played so poorly overall as a team last year. As long as Luck gets back on track, and I expect him to do that, then they will be able to compete for a playoff spot.

What I Don't Like: Their offensive line will be a question mark until they actually prove that they have figured that area out. I also worry that there isn't enough as far as weapons are concerned around Luck and that offense. Is their defense up to the task? You have to wonder how much total talent is on this roster. Does it matchup with the Texans at this point? If Luck falters or gets hurt again, then they are done. So much of what they will do this year will be about Luck. Will that be too much for him again? They do have some tough road games as the year goes on. They have trips to Green Bay, the Jets, Minnesota, and Oakland all in November and December.

Prediction: 10-6 and Winners of the AFC South

2) Houston Texans:
What I Like: They have the most talented roster in their division. Their defense really came on last year and it features J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus as a pass rushing duo. If Jadeveon Clowney gets going, then watch out because this defense could be scary. I like the tandem at CB with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. They have what you need for a great defense: A pass rush and quality cover guys in the secondary. I really liked their draft. They drafted speedster WR Will Fuller in the 1st round and the intriguing WR Braxton Miller in the 3rd round. They added RB Lamar Miller in free agency, and don't forget that this offense still centers around WR DeAndre Hopkins. The biggest move they made in the offseason was getting QB Brock Osweiler from Denver. Everyone felt that this team was just a QB away from getting to the Super Bowl, and now that they have Osweiler in the fold, that could be the final piece to the puzzle for them. Their schedule is pretty friendly for them. They host Chicago and KC in Weeks 1 and 2. They go to NE in Week 3, who will be without Tom Brady, then they host Tenn in Week 4. You can make a very solid case that they will be 4-0. They also get Indy and Detroit at home in Weeks 6-8. Their last three games feature Jacksonville, Cincy, and at Tennessee. That could be 9 wins with just the games I mentioned.

What I Don't Like: How the hell are you going to give $18.5 million a year to a QB who has only started seven games in his career? That is what the Texans did with Brock Osweiler. I think Osweiler can be good, but I don't think he will be a franchise type guy. I think he will stabilize the position for them, but I don't think he will be able to get them over the hump. I think you can make the case that Osweiler isn't better than the other three QBs in the division (Luck, Bortles, and Mariota). Throw in the fact that projected C Nick Martin is out for the season, and the Texans have issues on the offensive line that could be their weakest link on that offense. Also, J.J. Watt had back surgery in July and although he might be ready for the season opener, you wonder how much that injury will affect him to start the year-especially since he missed all of training camp. If he is out any period of time to start the season, then their defense will not be as good as advertised. Don't forget that their division is really improved. The Jaguars and the Titans will be improved this year, and the Texans feasted on this weak division to make the playoffs this year. That won't be the case this year. I was so pissed that Osweiler left Denver for Houston, and I am so pissed on how he has acted since he left, that I don't want to see him or the Texans do well this year at all, and I want to actively root against them every week. That is another reason why I'm not picking them to make the playoffs this year.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the AFC South

3) Jacksonville Jaguars:
What I Like: You have love the rise of young QB Blake Bortles. He threw for over 4.400 yards last year and 35 touchdowns. They also return two young 1,000 yard receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and if Julius Thomas stays healthy, they might have the best young receiving corps iun the entire NFL. They even have options at RB with T.J. Yeldon and newly signed Chris Ivory. That is a solid group offensively. On defense, their big move was signing DL Malik Jackson. He is a game-changer and he should make a major impact right away. The other big free agent addition they made was signing S Tashaun Gipson. He should come in and start right away. If they can get something out of last year's 1st round pick, DE Donte Fowler, and this year's top two picks, FS Jalen Ramsey and OLB Myles Jack, their defense could be a really solid, young group. This franchise has been down in the dumps for a long time, and it finally looks like it has replenished itself enough to make a move a be a playoff contender in the AFC. The question is if they can make the move this year as opposed to next year. They will definitely be in a lot of games this year.

What I Don't Like: There seems to be a lot of expectation on the Jags this year. A lot of people like them and they won't just sneak up on a lot of people. With that expectation comes a lot of pressure for a young team and a young coach like Gus Bradley. Bradley is the key here. Is he really any good of a coach? He looks and acts the part, but the Jags have been awful in his tenure. Plus, how will these young guys react to having some expectations on them. When you look at their schedule, it isn't favorable in many spots. They will play four stud QBs in Weeks 1-4 (Rodgers, Rivers, Flacco, and Luck) when they host GB, go to SD, host Baltimore, and play Indy. The Week 4 game is in London too. They have two sets of back to back road games in Weeks 8-9 (Tenn and KC) and Weeks 11 and 12 (Det and Buff). They don't get back-to-back home games until Weeks 13 and 14 and that is against Denver and Minnesota. They also finish with road games at Houston and at Indy in Weeks 15 and 17. That is a really tough draw. Plus, you know Indy and Houston are going to be good and challenge for the South, and Tennessee will be a better team this year. I think when it is all said and done, the Jags will be a sexy pick to make the playoffs, but I see them being at least one year away at this point.

Prediction: 8-8 and 3rd place in the AFC South

4) Tennessee Titans:
What I Like: Here is another team with another young QB who looks like he can become a top player. I did like what I saw out of Marcus Mariota last year, and I think he will continue to progress this year. I like what they did in free agency to surround him. They added RB DeMarco Murray and C Ben Jones. They selected OT Jack Conklin in the 1st round of the draft, and he should be a starter right away. They also got RB Derrick Henry in round 2, and he should make an impact on offense this year too. TE Delanie Walker had over 1,000 yards and 94 catches last year. With Kendall Wright returning, the WR group is young and filled with some flash and potential. Their defense will feature the pass rush duo of Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan to go along the inside presence of Jurrell Casey. They selected DT Kevin Dodd of Clemson in the 2nd round to add to that pass rush, but the Titans are looking at those three veterans to anchor the defense. Plus, I love the fact that Dick LeBeau is back as DC for this group. What I like about them is that nobody is talking about them in the South. Everyone loves the Jags as the sleeper playoff contender. Everyone is forgetting about the Titans. They could use that as motivation and sneak up on everyone earlier than anyone expects.

What I Don't Like: They are stuck in an improved division. Clearly, they are behind the Texans, Colts, and Jaguars. They could be better but can't do better than 2-4 in their own division. You always worry about a young QB taking a step back in Year 2, and that is something that does concern you with Mariota. Outside of a few guys on their front seven, they don't have a great secondary and there is really nothing that stands out just yet on this defense. Are you sold on Head Coach Mike Mularkey? I'm not either. I don't know if he is the right guy to navigate this young team as it tries to turn this franchise around. Their schedule didn't help their cause either. They open with Minnesota and Oakland at home in Weeks 1 and 3 respectively. Then, they travel to Houston and Miami in Weeks 4 and 5. After a three game homestand, they have three out of four games on the road in November: at SD, GD at home, at Indy and at Chi. They finish their last four games with Denver, at KC, at Jax, and Houston. That is a rough stretch of games in there. I see them getting off to a slow start and never getting back on their feet to compete for a wild card spot this year. They are at least a year away from that discussion.

Prediction: 6-10 and last place in the AFC South

AFC West
1) Kansas City Chiefs:
What I Like: In a division that is in flux, they are the most likely to take the title away from the Broncos. Coming off an 11-5 year and their first playoff win since 1993, the Chiefs return a lot of the same team from last year. You can say what you want about Andy Reid and his game management skills, but as far as running a team as a head coach, he does a good job. Just look how his team was 1-5 last year and he helped turn it around and get them to 11-5. You have to like the combination of Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles comes back from missing most of last year due to a knee injury. Throw in the emergence of TE Travis Kelce and the Chiefs should be able to move the ball and score points once again. Their defense was strong last year and Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey return up front, and Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson continue to compliment that front. CB Marcus Peters played like a star last year as a rookie and FS Eric Berry was terrific and an All-Pro after returning from cancer. The biggest advantage they have from their schedule is the fact that they have three straight home games in Weeks 14,15, and 16. They host Oakland, Tennessee, and Denver on Christmas night in that stretch. Their Week 17 game is at San Diego. They can make a push to the playoffs and the division right there. If there is anyone ready to take Denver's spot atop the AFC West, the Chiefs certainly look like that team.

What I Don't Like: The biggest concern is the fact that Justin Houston have major knee surgery in the offseason. He is starting the season on the PUP list and will be out for the first six games. The Chiefs and their pass rush could be in serious trouble. Tamba Hali is another year older as well, and you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. Did they hit the ceiling on Alex Smith's ability last year? We all know how Andy Reid can falter in a really big game (See AFC Divisional Game vs New England last year). Will the way they handled the Eric Berry contract situation have an affect on his play this year? As far as the schedule goes, the problem for the Chiefs is their non-division road games. They play at Houston in Week 2, at Pittsburgh in Week 4, at Indy in Week 7, at Carolina in Week 9, and at Atlanta in Week 13. Their road schedule this year will not help their cause to make the playoffs in back-to-back years.

Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the AFC West


2) Oakland Raiders:
What I Like: They have finally seemed to put all the pieces in place to get through and make the playoffs. They have the young and up and coming QB in Derek Carr. They have young talent at WR in Amari Cooper and at RB with Latavius Murray. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which was helped by the addition of OG Kelechi Osemele. On defense, they have a dominant pass rusher in Khalil Mack, free agent pickup Bruce Irvin at LB to add to that pass rush, and newly signed starters in the secondary in CB Sean Smith and FS Reggie Nelson. 1st round pick Karl Joseph is also considered a guy who can come in and start right away. The division is there for the taking with the Broncos in somewhat of a transition since the retirement of Peyton Manning. This the time for them to make that step into the playoffs. Their schedule gives them an interesting section that could help them. From Week 9 (November 6th) to Week 13 (December 4th), they will not have to play a true road game. They host Denver on SNF, Bye, play Houston in Mexico City on MNF, and then host Carolina and Buffalo. That will set them up for their last four games of the season in December. The time is now for the Raiders and they have a very good chance of making the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

What I Don't Like: Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is picking the Raiders this season to win the West and make the playoffs. They are the consensus team that all the experts are picking and that worries you because when everyone jumps on a team's bandwagon in the preseason, that could be a recipe for disaster. They are a young team and how they handle the hype will be very interesting. It will not be easy for them. Plus, Jack Del Rio is their Head Coach. If anything could derail their season, then Del Rio's presence on the sidelines could be the reason. You can't trust Del Rio as a head coach. Their schedule is interesting to say the least. The beginning four games will be tricky: at New Orleans, Atlanta, at Tenn, and Baltimore. Their final six games will also be a very difficult stretch for them if they are going to make the playoffs. They host Carolina and Buffalo, and then they go to KC and San Diego, host Indy in Week 16, and travel to Denver in Week 17. The beginning and end of their schedule could sink their ship in 2016.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the AFC West

3) San Diego Chargers:
What I Like: I still think that Philip Rivers is a top tier QB, and as long as he is around, he will give the Chargers a chance. They were so banged up last year in key spots that it is hard to see them dealing with those kind of injuries again. To help Rivers, SD brings back Antonio Gates and the emerging Keenan Allen. Danny Woodhead has been a solid player for them, and he totaled almost 1,000 yards rushing and receiving for them last year. If they can get RB Melvin Gordon going, then this offense will be in good shape. The addition of WR Travis Benjamin should help Rivers too. On defense, in free agency they added Brandon Mebane to start at NT and Dwight Lowery to start at FS. They still have Melvin Ingram at OLB and CB Jason Verrett has turned into a really good young player. ILB Denzel Perryman is about as good of a player that no one knows about. There is nothing really tricky or easy about their schedule but if you look at their non-division home games, they are very favorable. Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Miami and Tampa Bay all come to San Diego. Those games could all be wins for the Chargers. With the division up in the air, no one has given the Chargers any chance of winning it. Maybe they can sneak under the radar and pull it out.

What I Don't Like: As much as I like Rivers, I don't know if he is still the same player he was a few years ago. He has had to do so much on his own that it looks like it took a toll on him. You wonder how much of this team he can actually put on his back again. I have been saying it for the last two years and I'll say it again: I'm not sold on Mike McCoy as a quality head coach. McCoy should take the blame for a lot of what has happened with this team missing the playoffs the last two years. I think he is a candidate for one of the first coaches to get fired this year. Their offensive line is still a question mark and if they can't protect Rivers, then they are screwed. Also, outside of Keenan Allen and an aging Antonio Gates, does any of their other receiving options really scare you. Then, you have the whole Joey Bosa holdout situation, and you know that is going to really affect Bosa's season and impact once it finally gets done. I also think that the impending vote on the Chargers possibly staying in San Diego or moving to Los Angeles will continue to be a distraction. Bascially, Chargers home games have become road games as fans of the other teams have invaded their stadium.

Prediction: 7-9 and third place in the AFC West

4) Denver Broncos:
What I Like: Even though they lost Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, they settled on a long-term deal with Von Miller, and their #1 defense still features: Miller, Demarcus Ware, Derek Wolfe, Brandon Marshall, Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, T.J. Ward, and Darian Stewart. They also have key reserves like Shaq Barrett, Vance Walker, and Shane Ray returning and taking on a bigger role this year. Their defense won't be as great as it was last year, but it will still be a very good defense and it will be the backbone of this team. I also like the talent they have on offense with C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and the depth of the WR group with guys like Bennie Fowler, Jordan Norwood, Cody Latimer and Jordan Taylor. I love the selection of RB Devontae Booker in the 4th round of the draft. He could end up getting a lot of carries this year. HC Gary Kubiak will figure out a way to move the ball with this group-no matter who the QB is. With Trevor Siemian starting, it is going to be irrelevant because these Broncos are going to play a certain way: Run the ball, play-action pass, play field position, and play great defense. It was a recipe that won them a Super Bowl down the stretch last year, and look for them to do it again.

What I Don't Like: The biggest concern with this team lies in the QB position. I get what the Broncos are trying to do, but the bottom line is that the lack of certainty at this position will cause you to lose games. Trevor Siemian is the not the answer, and it will probably take at least till midseason or late in the season to get Paxton Lynch ready to start. In that case, the Broncos could also be out of it at that point. I think the QB situation will sink this team this year. I also don't like the offensive line situation. You have too many variables with too many young guys that they are relying on. A shaky offensive line with a shaky QB situation is not a recipe for success. Their schedule is also not easy at all this year. They open with two home games but they are hosting Carolina and Indy. Then, they have back-to-back road games at Cincy and Tampa Bay. That will be a rough start to the year for them All three of their division road games are on primetime. They go to San Diego on a Thursday night, at Oakland on SNF, and at KC on Christmas night. Plus, they finish with home to NE in Week 15 (With Tom Brady), at KC, and home against Oakland in Week 17. That will be a very tough way to end the season. You also can't underestimate the loss of Peyton Manning. I know he didn't play well last year and was limited but he still made big enough throws to help win those games in was in last year. You can just lose a guy like Manning and a leader like Manning and expect everything to be okay. Look what happened to the Broncos in 1999 when John Elway retired. Look what happened with the Packers in 2008 when Brett Favre left and Aaron Rodgers took over. I expect the same dropoff with the Broncos now that Manning is retired. The Broncos won't be down for long, but I expect them to take a step back this year and miss the playoffs.

Prediction: 7-9 and last place in the AFC West.

AFC Standings
East
1) NY Jets: 10-6
2) New England: 10-6 *Wild Card
3) Buffalo: 8-8
4) Miami: 7-9

North
1) Pittsburgh: 11-5
2) Baltimore: 10-6
3) Cincinnati: 7-9
4) Cleveland: 3-13

South
1) Indianapolis: 10-6
2) Houston: 8-8
3) Jacksonville: 8-8
4) Tennessee: 6-10

West
1) Kansas City: 9-7
2) Oakland: 8-8
3) San Diego: 7-9
4) Denver: 7-9

AFC Playoff Seeds
1-Pittsburgh
2-Indianapolis
3-NY Jets
4-KC
5-Baltimore
6-New England

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend:
6-New England over 3-NY Jets: The Pats and the Jets face off in another chapter to their hated rivalry, but this game ends with the Patriots breaking the Jets hearts as New England pulls off the tough road win.
5-Baltimore over 4-Kansas City: The Ravens notch another road playoff victory as they go into Arrowhead and take down the Chiefs to advance to the Divisional Round.

Divisional Round:
1-Pittsburgh over 6-New England: The Steelers outlast the Patriots at Heinz Field in a playoff classic to advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2010.
5-Baltimore over 2-Indianapolis: The Ravens head back to another AFC Championship by winning another road playoff game and upending the Colts in Indy.

AFC Championship:
1-Pittsburgh over 5-Baltimore: In a rematch of the 2008 AFC Championship Game, these two AFC North rivals battle it out and the Steelers advance to Super Bowl LI with a hard fought victory, they make their NFL record 9th Super Bowl in franchise history.

Super Bowl LI:
Pittsburgh over Green Bay: In a rematch of Super Bowl XLV, and a game that features Ben Roethlisberger going for his third Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers looking for his second Super Bowl, the Steelers outlast the Packers and win their 7th Lombardi Trophy.












2016 NFL Predictions-Part 1: NFC

When you look at the 2016 season, you expect to see a bit of the changing of the guard. Peyton Manning is retired, Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games, the Rams are back in Los Angeles for the first time since 1994. Teams that have been really bad for years have some legitimate reasons for optimism (Jacksonville, Oakland, and Buffalo). There are teams that have some young QBs that could help them take the next step (Tampa Bay and Tennessee). Teams are looking to bounce back after some really tough seasons (Giants and Baltimore), and teams that have Super Bowl aspirations still have some lingering questions to be answered (Pittsburgh and Houston). The NFC looks like the deeper and stronger conference and the teams that have been good recently look to build on that in 2016. The AFC is more wide open and might provide a lot more surprises than in years past. As far as my predictions are concerned, I am keeping the same formula as I always do with a minor tweak. I'm keeping seven teams that made the playoffs a year ago and leaving five teams that made the playoffs a year ago on the outside looking in.Six teams that didn't make the playoffs last year are going to make the playoffs this year. A team that lost at least 10 games will make the playoffs this year as well, as always all the wins and losses for each team add up to 256 wins and 256 losses. Let's get the predictions started with the NFC...

NFC East
1) New York Giants:
What I Like: The Giants defense can't be any worse than it was last year. In free agency they added DE Olivier Vernon, CB Janoris Jenkins, and DT Damon Harrison. They also drafted CB Eli Apple in the 1st round of the draft. Those guys should help improve the defense by just showing up the first day of training camp. Jason Pierre-Paul now has an entire year to recoup from last year's fireworks incident, and he can be a real threat once again. Their offense is still explosive and Eli Manning is still one of the best QBs in the NFL. Odell Beckham is a superstar, and now they get Victor Cruz back from injury and 2nd round pick, Sterling Shepard, should also bolster that passing attack. Three different times they have back-to-back home games on their schedule. They have a three game homestand in Weeks 9-11 against Philly, Cincy, and Chicago. The Giants are due for a year in which they make a playoff run since they haven't been in the playoffs since their Super Bowl year in 2011.

What I Don't Like: You can say that Tom Coughlin's run in New York needed to end, but you never know what you are going to get when you bring in a new head coach without any head coaching experience. The Giants did that with the promotion of Ben McAdoo from offensive coordinator to head coach. How do we know that McAdoo will do a good job as head coach? Is he really any kind of upgrade over Tom Coughlin? I don't think so at this point. That should scare Giant fans. Also, their schedule has some really tough spots. They open up at Dallas. Then they have to go to Minnesota and Green Bay in Weeks 4 and 5. They have to go to London to take on the Rams in Week 7, and they finish with back-to-back road games at Philly and at Washington to end the season. The Philly game is a short week because it is a Thursday night game. Those can be tricky. They also have to go to Pittsburgh in Week 13. That schedule can produce enough potholes to trip them up and push them out of the playoffs once again.

Prediction: 10-6 and Winners of the NFC East

2) Dallas Cowboys:
What I Like: Although Tony Romo got hurt in preseason and will miss 6-10 weeks, Dak Prescott has looked terrific in the preseason, and he could help keep the Cowboys afloat until Romo comes back. I'm not anointing Prescott but his performance in the preseason reminded me of what Russell Wilson did in the preseason when he was a rookie. It was that impressive. I think Prescott could be good enough and give this team a spark and keep them from imploding in the first two months of the year. I love the addition of RB Ezekiel Elliot in the draft. They have Dez Bryant coming back from an injury riddled year, and they still have TE Jason Witten, and WRs Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley. I also love the addition of Alfred Morris in free agency. Throw in the fact that they have the best offensive line in the entire NFL and their offense should be explosive once again. Their defense is basically the same as last year, but with their offensive firepower, they should be able to be just good enough on defense to win a lot of games. If they get anything out of 2nd rounder Jaylon Smith, then that will be a plus for them on the defensive side. Their schedule is friendly and I like how they end their season with TB and Detroit at home and at Philly in Week 17. If Prescott helps them hold serve until Romo comes back, then they can still make a run to the playoffs.

What I Don't Like: Tony Romo staying healthy was the biggest storyline heading into the season for this team, and now he is out for 6-10 weeks to start the year. As impressive as Dak Prescott was, you have to be concerned with starting a rookie 4th round pick to start the year. It could be a mess just like they were in last year when Romo went down in Week 2. Also, you can't be happy with the suspensions their defense is dealing with to start the season. Three starters on defense are suspended to start the year: Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Rolando McClain. That is a tough blow for them to start the season. Their schedule is friendly but their division is always competitive and the AFC North is a tough group to deal with. They have tough trips to Green Bay in Week 6, at Pittsburgh in Week 10, and at Minnesota in Week 13. If they don't get off to a good start, then the finger pointing will start and head coach Jason Garrett will be on the hot seat.

Prediction: 9-7 and a Wild Card Berth

3) Washington Redskins:
What I Like: You have to love the way QB Kirk Cousins played last year. He played like a top-10 QB and got the Redskins into the playoffs at 9-7. If Cousins can play like that again, they can win this division again. They added CB Josh Norman to their secondary, and their defense has enough playmakers like Ryan Kerrigan to be a solid group. On offense, Cousins has some weapons in Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and the emerging star at TE Jordan Reed. They drafted WR Josh Doctson in the 1st round of the draft, and they have Matt Jones at RB. They definitely have some solid pieces to build around on offense. Three of the toughest games on their schedule are at home: Pittsburgh in Week 1, Green Bay in Week 11, and Carolina in Week 15.

What I Don't Like: Can you count on Cousins playing the way he played in 2015 again in 2016? I'm not so sure. If he doesn't play like a top-10 QB, then they might not have a chance of making the playoffs at all. That is a lot of pressure on Cousins. Their schedule is brutal at times too. They open up with Pittsburgh, Dallas, and at the Giants in Weeks 1-3. They have to go to London to play the Bengals in Week 8. Then, they have a three straight road games at Dallas, at Arizona, and at Philly in Weeks 12-14, and the Dallas game is a short week because it is on Thanksgiving. That is a rough stretch right there. They also have a trip to Baltimore in Week 5. Their schedule could literally doom their season.

Prediction: 8-8 and 3rd place in the NFC East

4) Philadelphia Eagles:
What I Like: The Eagles made a lot of moves in the offseason and dumped a lot of the mistakes from the Chip Kelly era off their plate. They locked up their top players like DT Fletcher Cox, LB Mychal Kendricks, S Malcolm Jenkins, and TE Brent Celek. They signed Chase Daniel to compete at QB. They still have solid offensive playmakers like Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. And, they made the big splash by trading up to #2 in the draft and selected QB Carson Wentz. There is some young talent on this roster. They get Green Bay, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh all at home, and they finish the season with two home games in Weeks 16 and 17 with the Giants and Dallas.

What I Don't Like: I still don't understand the move to re-sign Sam Bradford for big money, sign Chase Daniel to compete at QB, and then trade a shitload of picks to move up to grab Carson Wentz. Why not just let Bradford go, sign Daniel and select Wentz? Then, they decide to trade Bradford to Minnesota a week before the season starts. Then, they decide they want to start Carson Wentz as soon as he is recovered from a rib injury. Clearly, this is a team built for next year and not this year. I am also not sold on the hiring of Doug Pederson as head coach. Again, you are relying on a first time head coach to navigate this team through a very tricky spot and they are clearly the weakest team in a competitive division. It could get ugly this year. Throw in the suspension of OT Lane Johnson, and you have a mess on the offensivel line. Their schedule is rough from Weeks 5-11 when they have 5 road games and 2 home games. Those road games feature games at Washington, at Dallas, at the Giants and at Seattle. Their 2 home games are against Minnesota and Atlanta. They could be done by the time Thanksgiving rolls around.

Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the NFC East

NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers:
What I Like:
As much as the Packers looked pretty ordinary on offense last year, they still have Aaron Rodgers, and he is still a top-3 QB in this league. They are getting WR Jordy Nelson back from an ACL injury that sidelined him for the entire 2015 season. The combination of Nelson and Randall Cobb to go with TEs Richard Rodgers and newly signed Jared Cook should help kickstart this offense once again. If they can get more consistency from Davante Adams at WR and RB Eddie Lacy, then this offense should be really explosive in 2016. On defense, they still have some playmakers in DT Mike Daniels, Clay Matthews, and Julius Peppers. The Packers lost all of their divisional games at home last year, and I just can't see anything like that happening once again this year. Their schedule gives them a chance to get off to a good start. From Week 3 on September 25th to Week 7 they have four home games and their bye week. They play Detroit in Week 3, their bye in Week 4, and then a three game homestand from Weeks 5-7 in which they play the Giants, Dallas, and Chicago. The Bears game is on a short week because it is on a Thursday night. They also finish with three out of their last five at home. I would expect the Packers to bounce back from their 10-6 season in 2015 and be a legitimate contender in the NFC in 2016.

What I Don't Like: I'll say this till I'm blue in the face: Mike McCarthy is not a big time coach. If he didn't have Aaron Rodgers as his QB, he would be coaching somewhere else. I just don't trust McCarthy week-to-week in these games. I am a little worried about the Packers and the fact that they took a step back last year and looked more vunerable than ever. Is that just a one-year exception? We will find out this year. Their schedule  does get tricky in November. They have a three game road trip from Weeks 9-11 when they travel to Tennessee, Washington, and Philly. How much of the gap did Minnesota really close on them last year? Those are some questions that you have to ask when you are looking at this team.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the NFC North

2) Minnesota Vikings:
What I Like: This is a young team that went 11-5, slayed the big-bad Packers, won the NFC North and should have beaten the Seahawks in the Wild Card round if it wasn't for Blair Walsh missing a chip shot field goal. Although Teddy Bridgewater is out for the year with a torn ACL in a freak non-contact injury during a walkthrough near the end of the preseason, they still have Adrian Peterson, and young weapons like WR Stephon Diggs and TE Kyle Rudolph. They didn't give up on their season and they made the bold move to trade for Sam Bradford a week before the season started. I liked their draft that included WR Laquan Treadwell and CB Mackensie Alexander. Their defense young and talented. It features young studs like Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Xavier Rhodes, and Harrison Smith. They added some veteran depth with the addition of S Michael Griffin. They have the excitement of opening a new stadium, and I think that will give them a boost after they were stuck playing at the University of Minnesota the last few years. Their schedule is pretty ordinary. Most of their tough out of division games are at home. They host the Giants, Houston, Arizona, Dallas, and Indy. One of the biggest advantages they have going for them is head coach Mike Zinmer. He did a great job last year, and he looks like he could be a big-time coach in this league.

What I Don't Like: Teddy Bridgewater going down to injury really cast a dark cloud over the excitement for this team. They had a lot lined up in front of them, and they had the making of a team that could take the next step, and then they lose their young QB like that in the preseason. I know they made the trade for Bradford, but can you really rely on him being the answer for this team and helping it make the playoffs? Now, he has to come in and be a savior and that might be too much to ask of him. Anytime a young team like this overachieves and make the playoffs when no one expects them to do it, you worry about the possibility of a setback season the next year. You worry this could happen to the Vikings in 2016. They are not sneaking up on anyone this year. Everyone will be ready for them. You have to worry if defenses are now going to be able to exploit him this year. He only threw 14 touchdowns last year. The one part of their schedule that is tough is that they have to play Green Bay, Carolina, the Giants, and Houston all within the first five weeks of the season. If they get off to a slow start, then they are in trouble.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC North

3) Chicago Bears:
What I Like: They retooled their defense by adding LBs Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and DE Akiem Hicks. The also added OLB Leonard Floyd in the first round of the draft. John Fox should be able to make strides with this defense in Year Two. On offense, Jay Cutler is coming off one of the most solid years of his career, they have WR Alshon Jeffrey, and they solidified their offensive line with the addition of OT Bobby Massie and the selection of OG Cody Whitehair in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft. They finish up with four of their last six games at home, so maybe a strong finish could get them in to the playoffs. You felt at points last year that Fox and his staff were just kind of taking one on the chin and getting ready to improve in 2016. Maybe that philosophy will pay of this year.

What I Don't Like: Jay Cutler has a really good year in 2015, but he loses his OC Adam Gase for 2016. That can't be a good thing for Cutler this year. They also lost Matt Forte and they are relying on Jeremy Langford to carry the load at RB. That is a downgrade from Forte. Outside of Jeffrey at WR, who really scares you on offense? Their defense is still a work in progress, and as much as I think Fox is good head coach during the week, he isn't the greatest gameday coach by any stretch. I think overall the talent on the roster puts them significantly behind the Packers and the Vikings in the division. I think they will be improved, but it looks like they are not ready to be a playoff team in 2016.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC North.

4) Detroit Lions
What I Like: I like how the Lions fought back last year. They were 1-7, and they battled back to finish 7-9. That says a lot about Jim Caldwell and their staff. They still have QB Matt Stafford, and they added WR Marvin Jones in free agency to go along with Golden Tate and TE Eric Ebron. If they can get production from RB Ameer Abdullah then this offense could be productive. You almost forget that they have Haloti Ngata, Ziggy Ansah, and DeAndre Levy on defense. Their schedule helps them in the middle when they have a three game homestand with Philly, LA, and Washington coming to town from Weeks 5-7. They might be the ultimate darkhorse this year because no one is giving them a chance to do anything this year.

What I Don't Like: Losing Calvin Johnson to retirement was a big blow because not only is he the best player on the team, but he is one of the best players in the league and of his generation. Whatever the Lions lacked in other spots on their team, they always could rely on Stafford to Calvin. Now, that is gone. Also, when you think about it, do you still trust Jim Caldwell as the head coach? I didn't think so. Outside of their divisional games, a lot of their road games are very difficult. Those games feature at Indy, at Houston, at New Orleans and at Dallas. That is a tough slate of away trips. It is not hard to make a case for another down year by the Lions.

Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the NFC North

NFC South
1) Carolina Panthers:
What I Like: The Panthers have the reigning MVP and the NFL's ultimate weapon in Cam Newton. Newton can dominate in ways that other QBs can't, and he is good enough to win 10 games by himself every season. They still have Jonathan Stewart at RB, Greg Olsen at TE, and they get Kelvin Benjamin returning at WR after he missed all last year with a knee injury. The Panthers compliment Newton on offense with Luke Keuchly on defense-another young star in his own right. Don't forget about Kawann Short, Kony Ealy and the heart of the defense: Thomas Davis. The Panthers schedule doesn't look too daunting with the NFC West as their other NFC opponents, and after opening at Denver on the opening night of the season, they host SF and Minnesota and then travel to Atlanta and then host Tampa Bay. They should get off to a good start. They are clearly the most talented team in their division. They probably won't go 15-1 but another double-digit win season should be easily attainable.

What I Don't Like: The teams that lose the Super Bowl can have a hangover the following season. The Panthers were 15-1, dominated the league all year long, and were six point favorites to win the Super Bowl and they got thumped by the Broncos. That can have a very negative affect the next year. You also wonder if the Panthers offensive scheme was exposed by the Broncos defense and if that will have any affect on how teams play them in 2016. Is there enough around Newton to help them flourish? You have to also think about losing CB Josh Norman in free agency. Perhaps the Norman defection will have a significant impact on their team as well.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC South

2) Atlanta Falcons:
What I Like: This was a team that was 6-1 last year before finishing 8-8. I still have faith in QB Matt Ryan, and they added Mohammed Sanu to go with Julio Jones at WR. They also added C Alex Mack to bolster their offensive line. Devonta Freeman had over 1,500 all purpose yards last year and 14 touchdowns. They definitely have weapons to be a force offensively. They finish with four out of their last six games at home. Arizona, KC, San Fran, and New Orleans all come to Atlanta in that stretch. That should help them out. I still Dan Quinn and the energy he brings as a head coach. The Falcons haven't made the playoffs since they lost the NFC Championship Game at home to the Niners in 2012. I think they are due to get back in the mix this year.

What I Don't Like: Ryan only threw 21 TDs last year and he threw 16 interceptions. If he repeats that performance in 2016, then the Falcons are in deep trouble. Does anyone on that defense scare you as far as a pass rush is concerned? Are they the team that finished the year 2-7 instead of the team that started 6-1? Their schedule is very difficult to start. They have to go to Oakland in Week 2 and then they host Carolina, head to Denver, and travel to Seattle in Weeks 4-6. They have to play Green Bay in Week 8, and will head to Tampa Bay on a short week to play on Thursday night in Week 9, and they have a trip to Carolina on Christmas Eve in Week 16. If they get off to a rough start, then the season could come crashing down really quick.

Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth

3) New Orleans Saints:
What I Like: Drew Brees is still their QB and as long as he is there, it gives them a shot to be competitive. I like the addition of TE Coby Fleener in free agency, and they have Brandin Cooks at WR. Did you realize Cooks had 84 catches for over 1,100 yards and 9 TDs last year? I like the Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, C.J. Spiller trifecta at RB as well. Their defense was awful last year, so they added James Laurinaitis and Nick Fairley and they brought back Dennis Allen to be the defensive coordinator. They added SS Vonn Bell to go along with Kenny Vaccaro in the secondary. The one key move they didn't make was to overreact and get rid of HC Sean Payton. He is still one of the better head coaches in the NFL, and he can turn this franchise back around. Their last six games feature very manageable matchups against the Rams, Detroit, Tampa twice, and at Atlanta. They could very easily find themselves in playoff contention in Week 17.

What I Don't Like: Maybe the Brees-Payton combination has just run its' course. Perhaps they are just a little stale, and the team should have moved on from both and started a rebuild. Remember the days when an opposing team would go into the SuperDome and get bombed by the Saints? Those days are over.You have to worry if their offense has enough in the tank to get it done. Can they really fix that defense in one year? They are clearly behind the Panthers in the division, and they might be even with the Bucs and the Falcons. Their schedule is tough in the first part of the year. They host the Raiders in Week 1, and travel to the Giants in Week 2. Weeks 6 through 11 feature the following games: home to Carolina, at KC, home to Seattle, at San Fran, home to Denver, and at Carolina. The Carolina game is on a short week as a result of Thursday Night Football. There is a chance they could go 1-5 in that stretch. If that happens, then their season is in trouble.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
What I Like: You have to like the progress of Jameis Winston as his rookie year went on. He looks like he can be a top-10 QB shortly in this league. With Mike Evans and Doug Martin, it gives the Bucs three young potential stars at the skill positions on offense. They also have cornerstone pieces on defense with Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David on defense, and the by taking CB Vernon Hargreaves in the 1st round of the draft and DE Noah Spence in the 2nd round, they might have added some young talent to the defense People forget that they were 6-6 with four games to go last year and in the thick of the wild card chase. They are not that far off from the Saints and the Falcons in their division. Their schedule gives them a three game homestand in Weeks 8-10 when they host Oakland, Atlanta, and Chicago, and that could give them an edge heading into the latter part of the season.

What I Don't Like: As an organization, you can't keep switching head coaches and expect to build a winning franchise. The Bucs have played that game with their head coach and they pulled the plug on Lovie Smith after they finished 6-10 last season. They turned to Offensive Coordinator, Dirk Koetter, to take over as Head Coach, but he has no head coaching experience in the NFL. It is not like that let Smith go, and replaced him with a proven NFL HC. I really worry about that move in the short term for this team. You do worry about Winston taking a step back because sometimes QBs struggle even more in their second year than in their rookie year. I don't like their schedule at all. They start with back-to-back road games at Atlanta and Arizona. They host Denver in Week 4 and travel to Carolina in Week 5. They go to KC in Week 11, host Seattle in Week 12, and finish with these three games: at Dallas, at New Orleans, and home against the Panthers. Perhaps the Bucs are a year away from contending for a playoff spot

Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the NFC South.

NFC WEST
1) Seattle Seahawks:
What I Like: How can you bet against this franchise that has a solid front office, coaching staff, and core group of players? Talent for talent this roster is still one of the best in the NFL. Think about this core that is still in tact for this team: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Kearse, Tyler Lockett, Luke Willson, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas. This team is loaded and ready for another run at the Super Bowl. When you look at their schedule, they open with Miami at home, head to LA in Week 2 and then host SF in Week 3. They finish with LA at home in Week 15, Arizona at home in Week 16, and travel to SF in Week 17. They also get to host Carolina in Week 13 on SNF. This team is the favorite in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl.

What I Don't Like: You worry about them going into the season a little too overconfident. They are certainly a brash and cocky group, and you wonder how that will play out if things don't go their way at some point in the season. The last two years they were able to bounce back from slow starts and finish strong, but you can't do that every year. People forget that they were 2-4 last year before going 10-6. I still worry about their offensive line and they lost LT Russell Okung to free agency. The retirement of Marshawn Lynch could have an impact because they are losing their identity. The "Beastmode" thing was their backbone, and with Lynch gone for good, you wonder how that affects not only the offense but the entire team.

Prediction: 12-4 and Winners of the NFC West

2) Arizona Cardinals:
What I Like: You have to love job that Bruce Arians has done as head coach for this franchise. His players love to play for him, and the team has been one of the better teams in the league the last few years. You also have to love how he has transformed Carson Palmer's career. Palmer threw for over 4,600 yards and 35 TDs last year. With Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd, they have nice trio of receivers for Palmer and that offense. They added DE Chandler Jones in free agency, and they drafted a guy with top 10 talent all down at 29 in first round in DT Robert Nkemdiche. With Jones providing the pass rush and CB Patrick Peterson being one of the best corners in the league, this team has enough balance to be dominant once again. Five of their first seven games are at home and they get a break by hosting the Pats in Week 1 without Tom Brady. The tools are all there for this team to breakthrough and make a Super Bowl appearance.

What I Don't Like: Every year there is one team that looks so good on paper, but they just take a step back for a variety of reasons. The Cardinals could be that team this year. You have to worry about Palmer's age and if he tops out. Remember how bad he was in the playoffs last year? If Palmer falters in 2016, then the Cardinals are in trouble. I still don't think they can match the Seahawks as far as talent goes. Five of their last seven games are on the road and their out of division road games feature trips to Buffalo, Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Miami. I think they are a talented and well-coached team, but my gut thinks they take a step back this season.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC West

3) Los Angeles Rams:
What I Like: I like that they went with a rebuild on offense and decided to move up to #1 overall in the draft and select QB Jared Goff. I'm sure that Goff will have his struggles this year, but I think in the long run he will be a good NFL QB. They have one of the best young RBs in the NFL in Todd Gurley and the sky is the limit for him, and WR Tavon Austin is always a threat when he gets the ball in his hands. On defense, they have one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL in DT Aaron Donald and they still have a solid young core in DE Robert Quinn, LB Alec Ogletree, and CB Trumaine Johnson. They are built the way that Head Coach Jeff Fisher likes to play: Run the ball and play solid defense. Plus, you have to love the fact that the Rams moved back to Los Angeles. The "Los Angeles Rams" just sounds right, so maybe that karma will be a good thing for the franchise.

What I Don't Like: Jeff Fisher has been around a long time, but when was the last time that Jeff Fisher has won a playoff game? When was the last time that a Jeff Fisher-led team has even made the playoffs? He might be one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL. Outside of Austin and Gurley, who scares you on that offense? Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks don't really put a lot of fear in opposing defenses. They lost a lot key pieces in free agency as well. TE Jared Cook, DT Nick Fairely, CB Janoris Jenkins, LB James Laurinitis, and DE Chris Long all departed in the offseason. Their schedule is not friendly for them at all. In Weeks 3 and 4, they travel to Tampa and Arizona. Then, they host Buffalo in Week 5, then they go to Detroit, and then they have to go all the way to London to play the Giants in Week 7. After a bye week, they get Carolina at home in Week 9, then have to travel all the way back to the East coast to play the Jets in Week 10. Then, they have to travel back East again to take on the Pats in Week 13, and they finish with a trip to Seattle in Week 15 and host Arizona in Week 17. It seems like this team is content on rebuilding with a fresh start in LA, and they look like a team that is not ready for playoff contention this year.

Prediction: 5-11 and third place in the NFC West

4) San Francisco 49ers:
What I Like: I don't mind them going after Chip Kelly to be their Head Coach. I think it was a very bold move that this franchise needed to make after screwing up and jettisoning Jim Harbaugh two years ago. Maybe Kelly can reboot Colin Kaepernick's career and give this team a lift. People forget how much star power Kaepernick just a couple of seasons ago. Maybe starting Blaine Gabbert is the right move and will stabilize this team as the season starts. This team is also the ultimate sleeper going into the season. Nobody believes they will be any good, and we have seen many times how a team that is given no chance to compete in an upcoming season comes out and surprises everyone. I'm sure that is going to give the 49ers a lot of motivation heading into the season.

What I Don't Like: They never addressed the QB position in the offseason, and that could be a fatal mistake. They are starting the season with Gabbert and if he falters they will turn to Kaepernick, but neither guy is the answer. Plus, you have to deal with the whole Kaepernick-National Anthem saga, and it is just a mess all around. Their biggest free agent acquisition: G Zane Beadles. That doesn't bode well either. There is just not enough talent on this roster to compete this year-especially in their division with the Seahawks and Cardinals. Looking at their schedule and it doesn't help them early on. They host LA in Week 1, then they head to Carolina and to Seattle in Weeks 2 and 3. Then, they host Dallas and Arizona in Weeks 4 and 5. Then, they have to travel to Buffalo in Week 6. They could easily be 1-5 to start the year. They host the Pats in Week 11 and four of their last six games are on the road and they finish with Seattle in Week 17. I just don't see how the 49ers are going to be a factor at all in 2016.

Prediction: 4-12 and last place in the NFC West

NFC Standings:
East
1) Giants: 10-6
2) Dallas: 9-7 *Wild Card
3)Washington: 8-8
4) Philadelphia: 5-11

North
1) Green Bay: 12-4
2) Minnesota: 8-8
3) Chicago: 8-8
4) Detroit: 5-11

South
1) Carolina:11-5
2) Atlanta: 9-7 *Wild Card
3)New Orleans:8-8
4) Tampa Bay: 5-11

West
1) Seattle: 12-4
2)Arizona: 8-8
3) Los Angeles: 5-11
4) San Francisco: 4-12

NFC Playoff Seeds:
1) Seattle
2) Green Bay
3) NY Giants
4) Carolina
5) Dallas
6) Atlanta

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round:
3-NY Giants over 6-Atlanta: The G-Men get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 and pull the upset over the defending NFC Champions on the road in Atlanta. 
5-Dallas over 4-Carolina: The Cowboys find the way into the playoffs and pull off the upset over Carolina in Round 1.

Divisional Round:
1-Seattle over 5-Dallas: The Seahawks get back to their third NFC Championship Game in four years as they dispatch the Cowboys at home.
2-Green Bay over 3-NY Giants: The Packers advance to their second NFC Championship in three years with a victory over the Giants in Lambeau.

NFC Championship Game:
2-Green Bay over 1-Seattle: The Packers avenge their crushing loss to the Seahawks in the 2014 NFC Championship Game, and they advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2010 season.