Broncos Winter Mailbag

As we hit the worst part of the NFL calendar, the period of time between the end of the Super Bowl and the Scouting Combine, I figured it would be a good time to do a little mailbag to answer some questions that have arisen since the end of the Broncos season on January 1st and the beginning of the draft season and free agency. Why not answer some of those burning questions as we are stuck in a dead time of the NFL offseason? Let's take a look....

How did you finish with your against the spread picks for the regular season and playoffs now that the Super Bowl is over? Let's get this out of the way early. I finished 141-99-14 in the regular season and 6-5 (Thanks for the comeback Tom Brady) in the postseason. Overall, I ended up 147-104-14 for the entire 2016 season, which is one of my best years ever picking games.

How accurate were your 2016 NFL Predictions?
I was nervous about my predictions entering the season. I just didn't have a good feel over the summer about what was going to happen, but I ended up doing pretty well. In the NFC, I had the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Seattle in the playoffs. Five out of six is very good, and I only missed on Carolina. I had the Panthers repeating as NFC South champs, but they didn't come close to the playoffs this year. I missed out on Detroit making the playoffs. I had Green Bay representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, but they lost in the NFC Championship Game to Atlanta. In the AFC, I had three out of the six teams in (Pittsburgh, New England, and Kansas City). The three teams I had in that did not make it: Indy, Baltimore, and (Gulp) the Jets. I even had the Jets winning the AFC East due to the Tom Brady four-game suspension, but we know how that played out. I had the Steelers winning the AFC Championship Game, but like GB, they fell to the Pats in the AFC Championship. Overall, I had 8 of the 12 playoff teams in this year, which is one of my best ever for my predictions, so this year was a very good in terms of me making predictions on the upcoming NFL year. I look forward to my goal of finally hitting all 12 playoff teams next year.

Okay, enough with the predictions and picks, let's talk some Broncos. What did you think of the new Broncos coordinators and the overall staff?
It is a pretty strong staff for new HC Vance Joseph. After thinking it over, I do like the addition of Mike McCoy as the new Offensive Coordinator. I think McCoy is adaptable, which will help the offense and Paxton Lynch. I also like the idea of going to more of power running attack as opposed to sticking with the Gary Kubiak zone blocking system. I am a little worried about McCoy's conservative nature, but you have to think that he will be able to take some of the things he learned with Peyton Manning back in 2012 to help this offense score some more points next year. I like the fact that the Broncos promoted Joe Woods to Defensive Coordinator, and all you hear is how much of a rising star Woods is, and he is taking over the best defense in the NFL. With that said, it does make me nervous that this is Woods' first time as a coordinator in the NFL, and you just can't come in and replace Wade Phillips that easily. It will be a challenge for Woods to live up to that hype, and it will be very interesting to see how Woods handles this defense next year. As for new Special Teams coach, Brock Olivo, you have to love his charisma and attitude, and I think getting him from KC, where he worked with Dave Toub, will really help him and our team in that area. With the addition of former Raiders OC Bill Musgrave as our new QB coach, I love that the Broncos have the former Chargers head coach, Raiders OC, and KC special teams assistant coach, in prominent roles on our staff.

Do you think we go after Tony Romo?
I wouldn't put anything past John Elway this offseason, but we are not trading for Romo. Instead, I think the Broncos will wait for Romo to be released, and if he has any interest in coming to Denver on a smaller contract, then I can see Elway making a move. I think Romo ends up either in Houston somehow, or even in KC.

Who are you looking at in free agency for the Broncos?
The Broncos are already bringing in DL Earl Mitchell from Miami for a visit this week after he got released last week, and I think the Broncos will target someone like Calais Campbell from Arizona to add to the defensive line. At LB, look for someone like Malcolm Smith, and I look for Denver to look at a guy like Julius Peppers on a one-year deal. In the secondary, the Broncos don't need a lot of help, but look for the Broncos to add Cornerback depth with a guy like Captain Munnerlyn. On offense, the Broncos need to revamp the offensive line. Look for OG help with names like Kevin Zeitler, the top guy on everyone's interior line list, T.J. Lang, and Ron Leary. At OT, I would love for the Broncos to make a move for Joe Thomas again, but we'll see how much the Browns would want via trade, so in free agency I think the Broncos will target Reilly Reiff and Ricky Wagner. It also depends on what they do with OT Russell Okung, who declined a pay cut. If we let Okung go, then we are looking at the possibility of replacing both of our tackles once again.

Is DeMarcus Ware coming back, and who do you think we could lose?
I don't think Ware is coming back. I know he said that Denver would be in the mix for a return next year, but I think he is going back to Dallas. The Broncos are trying to re-sign CB Kayvon Webster, and if he hits free agency, then I really hope we don't lose him. I also hope we re-sign Vance Walker and he is coming off an ACL injury, so I'm not sure he will have a big market out there for him. I think Sylvester Williams will walk, and I expect Jordan Norwood, who had some bad moments last year, and Dekoda Watson will leave as well. I would like for them to try to bring back Billy Winn for some D-Line depth.

Who are the players the Broncos SHOULD be targeting in the draft?
It is still too early to look at some mock drafts and the combine is still a week away, but I have to think Denver is targeting offensive tackles in the early rounds. Cam Robinson, Garett Bolles, and Ryan Ramcyzk are the names that have popped up so far in the early part of the draft projections for the Broncos.

Super Bowl LI Recap and Review

In a game that will be remembered and dissected for a long, long time, the New England Patriots came all the way back from a 28-3 third quarter deficit to shock the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime to win Super Bowl LI. For most of three quarters, it looked like the Falcons were the better team and they played like it, but Atlanta left the door open enough, the Pats rallied behind Tom Brady and their resurgent defense, and then the Falcons collapsed at the end, the Patriots completed their epic comeback and the rest is history. There is so much to digest from this game from the perspective of the Patriots winning their 5th Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, but also the other side of the coin: The Falcons meltdown in the final quarter of this game. That will be the indelible mark on this game for me as the years go by. Here are my thoughts and observations on one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time....

1) The Falcons started the game so well. They stuffed LaGarrette Blount on a 3rd and 1 on the fist drive by the Pats. Even though Atlanta didn't score on the first drive, they set the tone when Devonta Freeman busted it on a toss for a 37 yard run to the 45. Blount's fumble inside the 30 led to Freeman's 5-yard TD run to give Atlanta the 7-0 lead with 12:15 to go in the 2nd quarter. Then, Atlanta capitalized on their next drive when Matt Ryan hit Austin Hooper for a 19 yard TD to make it 14-0. You couldn't ask for a better start than the Falcons had in this game. Up 14-0 on the Pats early and they were rolling.

2) The story early in this game was the Falcons defense. They pressured Brady, sacked and harassed him, and made him uncomfortable. They tackled well, and the Pats were off the game with dropped passes. The Atlanta defense was completely dominating the Pats which culminated when Robert Alford picked off Brady and went the distance for a 82 yard interception return and a 21-0 lead. It looked like the Falcons were going to run away with the game and blow the Pats out like the Seahawks blew out the Broncos a few years ago in the Meadowlands. It was shocking and amazing how well the Falcons were playing at that point.

3) The Pats did manage to drive down and get a field goal right before the half to stop the bleeding and make it 21-3, but that was about one of the worst halves of football I have ever seen the Pats play in the Brady-Belichick era. Even though the Pats got a field goal, I still thought the Falcons were going to win the game and put it away in the second half.

4) After the teams traded punts to start the half, the Falcons go 85 yards on 8 plays in only 4 minutes and Ryan hit Tevin Coleman on a 6 yard TD pass in the flat to make it 28-3 with 8:31 left in the 3rd quarter. 28-3, midway through the 3rd quarter and the Falcons were in complete command of the game and finish line was in sight for their first Super Bowl in franchise history. It was right there for them.

5) At 28-3, I started thinking about how the Falcons and Matt Ryan might be starting their own run as a franchise after dominating the Pats in this Super Bowl, and how this loss affects Brady and Belichick's legacy with a blowout loss for their third Super Bowl defeat. Boy, was I was in for a surprise the rest of the way.

6) The Pats drove down to score on the next drive on a Brady to James White 5 yard TD pass with 2:06 left in the 3rd quarter to make it 28-9 when Stephen Gostkowski missed the extra point. It still looked like it just wasn't going to be the Pats night. The Pats converted a 4th and 3 from their own territory on the drive, and I wonder how many NFL head coaches would have punted there. Belichick made the right choice by going for it, and Brady completed a pass for a first down to keep the drive alive. Gutsy call and the right call by Belichick there. Atlanta was still in good shape and led the friggin Super Bowl 28-9 going into the 4th quarter.

7) I was surprised Belichick went for the onside kick that early after the score, and the Falcons recovered, and it seemed like a move of desperation at that point. He got bailed out by his defense with a 3rd down sack of Ryan, and the Pats got the ball back.

8) The Pats went 72 yards on 12 plays and they had to settle for a 33 yard field goal to make it 28-12 with 9:44 to go in the game. It was smart by Belichick to go for the field goal there because it still made it a two possession game with under 10 minutes to go, but the Pats still needed two TDs and two 2-point conversions to tie the game. There is no way in the world that the Pats were going to be able to get 2 TDs and 2 two-point conversions in the 4th quarter! No way that happens in the NFL. I was wrong once again.

9) What transpired next over the last 9 minutes of the game was one of the most mind-boggling endings to a game I have ever seen. The way the Falcons handled this last part of the game was just atrocious and about as bad as you can finish off a game. It was a meltdown from start to finish. The next drive, the Falcons decided to pass on a 3rd and 1 from their own 36 and Ryan got sacked by Donta Hightower, fumbled, and the Pats recovered at the Atlanta 25 with 8:31 to go. That was the break the Pats needed, and you could just see this comeback coming. Why are the Falcons throwing the ball on that 3rd and 1? Just run the ball and if you don't get it, then at least you take some time off the clock. I just don't get it.

10) Now, Brady is on fire, the Falcons defense is already gassed, and the Pats have all the momentum. Naturally, Brady brings them right down the field, and after a huge 14 yard completion to Malcolm Mitchell on a 3rd and 11, the Pats capped it off with Brady hitting Danny Amendola for a 6 yard TD to make it 28-18, and they then converted the first of their two 2-pointers with the direct snap run to James White on a play that the Pats have been running near the goaline for like 16 years going back to the Kevin Faulk days. 28-20 ATL with 5:56 to go in the game. Buckle your seatbelts. At this point, I really had a feeling the Pats were going to tie the game somehow and someway.

11) Smart move by Belichick to kick it short and make the Falcons return the kick. From their own 10, Ryan hits Freeman on a short throw and Freeman goes 39 yards to the ATL 49. That was a huge play for Atlanta. Two plays later, Julio Jones, who finished with 4 catches for 87 yards, made an unbelievable catch for 27 yards on the sideline to give them a first down at the NE 22 with only 4:40 to go in the game. All they need is a field goal to make it 31-20 and the game is over. What happened next was a travesty from a Falcons standpoint. Freeman lost a yard on the next run, and then Matt Ryan took a terrible sack on the next play and lost 12 yards. Why are you even throwing the ball there??? Why not just run it again? That was an awful job by Kyle Shanahan and Dan Quinn. Just awful. The next play, the Falcons got called for a holding call, which set up a 3rd and 33 at the Pats 45 and they called another pass and it was incomplete and they had to punt with 3:44 to go in the game. What an incredibly awful sequence of plays and events by the Falcons in that spot. Just incredible.

12) You knew Brady was going to go down the field and score. You could just feel it and sense it. They went 10 plays and 91 yards and it was aided by an incredible catch by Julian Edelman on a batted ball in between three Falcon defenders and he scooped it up before it hit the ground to the Falcons 41 for a gain of 23. Why did Dan Quinn challenge the play? It was called a catch on the field, but it was right before the 2 minute warning, and now the Falcons were out of timeouts. Just incredible. I can't even explain it. Brady just shreads the Falcons the rest of the way and James White plunges in from the 1 yard line to make it 28-26, and they naturally get the 2 point conversion to Amendola on a quick screen to tie it at 28 with only 57 seconds left in the game. It was just surreal to watch and expected all at the same time.

13) The Falcons had no timeouts, so they could only do so much on the next drive, and the game was going to overtime after the Falcons could only manage one first down on that series.

14) The first Super Bowl ever to go into overtime was over once the Pats won the coin toss, you knew this game was over and the Pats were going to win the game. The Pats went 75 yards on 8 plays in only 3:58 to win the game 34-28. Brady completed passes to Amendola for 14, Chris Hogan for 18, Edelman for 15, and a pass interference on Martellus Bennett that put the ball down to the ATL 2 yard line. After a near Brady interception on a fade to Bennett, James White finished the comeback off with a 2 yard TD run around right end to win the game and cap the comeback. Just unreal. Absolutely an amazing finish and one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history.

15) This game puts Brady over the top in the conversation of greatest QB ever. He won another Super Bowl MVP, finished with his 5th Super Bowl, and now he has the Super Bowl titles, the stats, the wins, and everything else. The argument and the debate is over. Brady is the greatest QB of all time and that's it. Belichick cemented his legacy as the greatest NFL coach next to Vince Lombardi with his 5th Super Bowl title, and he passed Chuck Noll for most wins in Super Bowl history. He deserves credit for always having his team prepared for any situation and he never melts down late in the game like other coaches do. The Pats never panicked, they kept grinding it out, they were mentally tough, and they pulled off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. It's hard to think that the Pats could top some of their other great wins in the Brady-Belichick era, but I think this game might top all of those other games. Just incredible.

16) On the flip side, this was the biggest collapse in NFL playoff history. Given the circumstances, the way the game played out, and just the percentages of the situation, the way the Falcons blew this game is just unreal and tragic all in one. Forget about the Oilers blowing that playoff game to the Bills in '92, this choke job by the Falcons takes the cake. The Falcons had a 99% probability of winning the game at 20 different points in the game. This game will stick with this team for a long, long time. Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan will have a hard time living this game down, and as much as you have to credit the Pats and Brady for the comeback, you have to look at the Falcons and their part that they played in this epic collapse. If I was a Falcons fan, I would be so devastated that I would not be able to go to work the next day or maybe for the rest of the week. At one point, I was thinking about how the Falcons might be at the start of their run after burying the Patriots, and then in a matter of moments they are viewed as one of the biggest chokers in NFL history. This could be the downfall for this team. If they never get back to the Super Bowl, this will be the game that everyone points to. I'll never forget the look in Arthur Blank's face as he was on the sideline near the end of the game watching this unfold in front of his eyes. Just gut-wrenching for Falcons fans.

17) It was the greatest Super Bowl ever, but it was definitely in the top 5 based on the comeback the Pats made. It certainly was one of the most exciting 4th quarter in the history of the NFL. The Pats ran 93 plays in the game. The Falcons defense was gassed in the second half, Brady got hot, and the rest is history. It was a tremendous game to watch, but it was like also watching a trainwreck before it actually happened. Thankfully, the NFL got one hell of a game to end what was a very lackluster postseason. It needed a memorable game and it got one. If you thought this game was great, it probably be the Thursday night opener in September when the Pats host the Falcons next year.

Super Bowl LI Preview and Prediction

The Patriots and the Falcons will meet in Super Bowl LI in Houston on Sunday and although it might not be the sexiest matchup in recent Super Bowl history, it still has the chance be a very good game. The Pats are making their record 9th Super Bowl appearance  and the Falcons are making only their second Super Bowl appearance and their first since Super Bowl XXXIII when they lost to the Broncos.The 2016 playoffs haven't been good at all (Dallas/GB and Pitt/KC only good games) and we are due for a great game in the Super Bowl. We desperately need a shootout and a back and forth game to save this postseason for the NFL. For a game that might not be the best on the paper, there are some intriguing storylines. The major storylines for Super Bowl LI are the following:

1) Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going for their 5th Super Bowl win together. That would be a record and that would break the ties that they are currently in. Brady would pass Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw, and Belichick would pass Chuck Noll. A win here and Brady and Belichick will cement their legacy to a level that we have not seen before in the history of the NFL.

2) Matt Ryan vs. Tom Brady is one of the best QB matchups in Super Bowl history. Both are playing at the top of their game, both are MVP candidates, and both players could light up the other defense in this Super Bowl. Plus, you have the Boston College factor with Matt Ryan, and you have the fact that Brady and Ryan are good friends. These two QBs could go shot for shot in this game and turn this Super Bowl into a shootout for the ages.

3) The Patriots bring in the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and the Falcons are the #1 scoring offense in the league this year. It is a battle of two units, and history is not on the side of the Falcons. In all the occasions that this has happened in the Super Bowl, with the exception of the 49ers 55-10 drubbing of Denver in Super Bowl XXIV, the defense has always prevailed over the offense. Could Atlanta buck that trend this Sunday?

3) I didn't want to bring it up but there aren't that many great storylines, so the most interesting one is the final chapter to the Deflategate Saga. Brady was suspended for the first four games this year, and of course the Pats go 3-1 and still finish 14-2 this year. Naturally, Brady has a great year and the Pats roll into this game and they want to stick it to Roger Goodell and the NFL with a victory, accompanied by Tom Brady accepting the MVP trophy from Goodell on the stage after the game ends. It is bound to happen and it is the scene that many people are looking forward to seeing. Finally, we might get closure to this ridiculous story, but the payoff of seeing the Pats winning and having to be next to Goodell on the podium after the game is over is interesting enough to keep the public's attention after the game ends. It is pretty bad that this is the biggest storyline in the entire Super Bowl.

Without further ado, here are is the breakdown of the matchup and the pick for Super Bowl LI.....
Last Week's Record: 0-2
Overall Playoff Record: 5-5
Regular Season Record: 141-99-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

A Case for the Falcons: They feature one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL, and they have one of the hottest QBs in the league and probable MVP in Matt Ryan. They scored over 30 points in 13 of 18 games this year, and they have blown people out all year-including Seattle and Green Bay in the playoffs. You can make a case that this offense might not be stopped and the Patriots have not faced an offense or a QB like this all year long-that includes Big Ben and Pitts in the AFC Championship. The Falcons remind me of the 2009 Saints. That year, the Saints were a very good team with a great offense but everyone was picking Peyton Manning and the Colts that year because of Manning and their reputation, but the Saints beat them and shocked everyone but themselves. EVERYONE is going to be rooting for the Falcons over the Patriots, with the exception of New Englanders, and the Falcons will come in as the underdog and they can play that up all week as motivation. Make no mistake, the Falcons are not a pushover.

A Case for the Patriots: Why would you go against Brady and Belichick in a Super Bowl? They are 4-2 in Super Bowls, and they are a David Tyree helmet catch and a Wes Welker drop away from being 6-0. They have rolled through everyone in the AFC this year, and I have a hard time seeing the Falcons defense getting pressure on Brady and slowing down the Pats offense. I think the Pats are getting at least to 30 points in this game. Plus, you have Brady with the extra motivation of trying to stick it to Roger Goodell and just eviscerating the Falcons from start to finish. Also, can't you see Belichick and the Pats defense making a few big plays on Matt Ryan and that offense? Can't you see Matty Ice melting down in the redzone and Julio Jones getting frustrated because the Pats defense has completely shut him down? The Pats have the experience factor in this game, the coaching edge, and the edge in special teams, defense, and even at QB. The Patriots are simply the better team and on a neutral field, you have to like their chances.

Prediction: New England (-3) over Atlanta: I know that there is a path for Atlanta to win this game, but I just don't see it happening. The Falcons will move the ball, they will score some points, but they will settle for field goals, Matt Ryan will make some key mistakes, and the Falcons inexperience will get the best of them and the Patriots will be able to exploit that. I can't see the Pats losing this game, and I am shocked that this spread is only 3 points. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will move the ball at will on Atlanta's defense, they will capitalize on opportunities, and they will pull away in the 4th quarter. By the late Sunday night, Brady and Belichick will be hoisting their 5th Lombardi Trophy and smiling away as Roger Goodell awkwardly hands them the trophy and scurries off the stage as the Patriots win another Super Bowl title to cement their franchise as the gold standard for this new salary cap era of the NFL.
Final Score: Patriots-38 Falcons-24