Super Bowl LIII Preview and Prediction!

Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta is full of juicy storylines. Many people expected or wanted  the Chiefs and Saints to get here, and those were the popular picks heading into Championship Sunday, but the Rams and Pats derailed those plans, and here we are with a very interesting matchup for Super Sunday. Anyway you look at the game, you have the sense that this is going to be a good game. Two teams that have star power from the coaches to the players, and it sets up to be a game that should be fun and exciting and probably come down to the wire.  Here are the major storylines heading into the game.....

1) The Old Guard vs. The New Guard: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick against Sean McVay and Jared Goff. The Patriots are viewed as the old dynasty and the Rams are viewed as the new regime that could take the throne away from the Pats. Also, everyone is always searching for the next Bill Belichick. Who is going to be the next great coach in the NFL? Sean McVay has gotten all the praise as the next great coach for what he has done the last two years with the Rams. It will be fun to see this play out on Sunday.

2) The Patriots Last Stand?  This might be the final chance for Brady, Belichick and the Patriots to win a Super Bowl. We have been saying that for the last few years, and at times this year it looked like the Pats were not going to make it back to the Super Bowl. Alas, they knocked off the Chiefs as underdogs and they are here for the 9th time in the Brady/Belichick era. We know it is going to end at some point, but could this be their last shot and last chance? That makes it all so fascinating because we know it will end sometime.

3) The Rams Dynasty Begins?The Rams have thrived under Sean McVay the last two years and it has turned around their franchise. Remember where the Rams were in St. Louis and under Jeff Fisher? They were a laughingstock. Jared Goff was being compared to Jamarcus Russell as far as #1 overall QBs who were busts in the NFL. Then, McVay got the job and everything changed. Goff has been great the last two years, and the Rams have been the class of the NFC. Could this Super Bowl be their moment to start their own Patriots-esque dynasty.

4) Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch: The Pats dynasty started with the upset win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. The Rams had won the Super Bowl two years earlier, and in 2001, the Rams were the "Greatest Show on Turf" and 16 point favorites heading into the Super Bowl against the Pats. I don't even think Tom Brady was a household name after taking over for the injured Drew Bledsoe in Week 3 of the season. Well, the Pats won the game, 20-17, and the rest is history. It is kind of ironic that 17 years later to the actual day, the Pats and Rams will be facing off once again. So much of NFL history changed on the outcome of that one game.

Onto the preview and prediction for Super Bowl LIII....

Last Week's Playoff Record: 0-2
Overall Playoff Record: 5-5
Overall Final Regular Season Record: 126-113-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Super Bowl LIII
New England vs. Los Angeles Rams

A Case for the Patriots: They have been here before. This is the 9th Super Bowl with Brady and Belichick, and this is their third trip to the Super Bowl in three straight years. That is an amazing accomplishment. Everyone thought they were done heading into the playoffs this year, and everyone thought they were done when they were headed to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship against the Chiefs. Naturally, they came out and beat the Chiefs in overtime to head to the Super Bowl. At this point, how can you not see the Patriots winning another Super Bowl on Sunday? Also, it is hard to see Brady and Belichick losing back-to-back Super Bowls. You would think they would avoid that. After this game on Sunday, I can't see the Patriots record in Super Bowls being 5-4. It seems like they will be 6-3 after Sunday's game. You know Belichick will come up with something for the Rams that will throw them off and rattle Jared Goff. They have the experience, the coaching, and everything going into their favor to win another Lombardi Trophy.

A Case for the Rams: They were one of the best teams in the NFL all year long. They have talent across the board. They are very well-coached with the talented Sean McVay. They have big-time players on offense like Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. They have big-time players on defense with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. They have experienced vets like Aqib Talib and C.J. Anderson. They have Wade Phillips going up against Josh McDaniels. They are probably going to go into this game a little looser than the Patriots because they don't know any better. Couldn't you see a scenario where the Rams jump on the Pats early and then Donald and Suh are teeing off on Brady and making his life miserable? I can see that playing out on Sunday. It might be 28-10 Rams in the 3rd quarter, and we might be like "Wow, the Rams are just better than them." Maybe it is the Rams time, and the Pats are just a footnote in their legacy just like it was back in Super Bowl XXXVI when the Pats kicked off their dynasty by beating the Rams. It might just be the Rams moment.

Prediction: New England (-2) over LA RAMS: In a game that is fun, exciting, and close, the Patriots pull it out to win their 6th Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.
Final Score: Patriots-28 Rams-24

Championship Sunday Recap and Reaction!

Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta will feature the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots. It will be a rematch from Super Bowl XXXVI in New Orleans when the Pats shocked the Rams 20-17 and it kick started the Patriots run as a dynasty. Now, 17 years later they will meet again. I will have plenty of time to delve into that matchup, but before we do that over the next few weeks, let's see how we got there with a recap of a very memorable Championship Sunday.

NFC Championship Game
(2) Los Angeles Rams-26 (1) New Orleans-23 (OT)

1) This game will long be remembered for the non-call late in the game, but I will get to that later. I thought the one part that stood out about the beginning was how the Saints jumped out to a 13-0 lead in the first quarter, but the Rams got back into the game. I thought this might be a blowout at that point, but give the Rams credit for the way they got back into the game. Give Sean McVay credit for calling a fake punt down 13-0 at his own 30 with 14:23 left in the second quarter. Johnny Hekker completed the pass, kept the drive alive, and the Rams got a field goal out of it to make it 13-3.

2) After the Saints scored to make it 20-10, I was also impressed how the Rams responded. They went down the field, got some big plays by Jared Goff, and his TD pass to Tyler Higbee made it 20-17 late in the third quarter. I knew at that point that we were in for a fantastic finish in the 4th quarter.

3) Here is where the game got interesting and memorable. Down 20-17, Goff hits a huge throw to the New Orleans 7 yard line. It sets up a 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. There is 6 minutes left in the game. and McVay elected to kick the field goal and go for the tie instead of going for it on 4th down from the one. If the Rams lost this game, then McVay would have been killed for going for the tie in this spot. It worked out for him in the end, and the Rams tied the game here, but I would have went for it in that spot.

4) The next Saints possession was where everything came to a head in this game. Drew Brees hits Ted Ginn Jr. on a 43 yard pass to the Rams 13 with only 1:59 left in the game. The Saints have the ball at the 13 YARD LINE with only 1:59 left, and on first down, they elect to throw a short pass which is incomplete! YOU HAVE TO RUN THE BALL THERE! That saved a valuable timeout for the Rams. The Saints run the ball the next play, and the Rams take their second timeout. The next play is what everyone will remember about this game. Brees pass intended for Tommy Lee Lewis was incomplete but there was major contact on the play by no flag was thrown. It was obvious watching live in full time that there was interference, but for whatever reason the official didn't throw a flag. Everyone was enraged: Sean Payton, the Saints, the fans, the announcers. It was about as bad of a non-call as you will ever see. I don't know how they missed that call. The Saints had to settle for a field goal and a 23-20 lead with 1:41 to go in the game.

5) Goff answered the bell once again. He hit throws of 19 and 16 yards and drove the Rams to the Saints 31. Greg Zuerlein came on and drilled the 48 yard field goal with 15 seconds left to tie it at 23 and we were headed to overtime. What a finish and what a great drive by Goff.

6) The Saints won the toss, took the ball, and then Drew Brees got hit as he was throwing it and the pass was intercepted by the Rams at their own 46 only four plays into overtime. The Rams only moved the ball 15 yards and it set up Zuerlein for a 57 yard field goal to win it in overtime. He absolutely drilled it once again, and the Rams won 26-23 and are headed to Super Bowl LIII. What an ending and what a finish!

7) It was a great game and had a memorable ending, but this game will always be remembered for the non-call. Missed calls happen all the time in sports, and the NFL officiating has been very inconsistent this year, and I don't know why that official didn't throw the flag. It cost the Saints a chance at the Super Bowl, and that will be a very tough pill to swallow for the Saints and their fans. Maybe this will lead the league to look at changing the challenge system to include pass interference, but it will be too little and too late for the Saints. This will go down in NFL history as the worst non-call of all time.

8) Give the Rams credit. They battled back many times in this game. They finally took the lead at the end when they won the game in overtime. They never led in the game until the very end. The Rams seemed like the better team on this day though. They battled the crowd and an early deficit. They kept fighting and battling back, and they are now headed to their first Super Bowl since 2001. Give Sean McVay and his staff credit because the Rams were shitshow of a team when he took over.

AFC Championship Game
(2) New England-37 (1) Kansas City-31

1) New England set the tone for this game when they got the ball first, went right down the field with an array of plays, and scored a TD to make it 7-0. Then, they forced a KC three and out, and you knew that this was going to be a ball game.

2) The Pats defense was able to shut down the Chiefs early. Tyreek Hill only had one catch for 42 yards on the day, and it was in the second quarter, but the Pats sacked Pat Mahomes and took the Chiefs out of field goal range to keep it at 7-0. The fact that KC didn't score in the first half tells you all you need to know about the effort, coaching, and execution of the Patriots defense.

3) The big play of the half was when Tom Brady hit Phillip Dorsett for a 29 yard TD with only 29 seconds left in the half to take a 14-0 lead heading into halftime. NE went 90 yards in 8 plays to get the two touchdown lead. It is hard to underestimate how critical that touchdown was.

4) Second half was all about the Pats holding on. Mahomes got going and hit Travis Kelce with a TD pass on the opening drive of the second half to make it 14-7 and the Pats held a 17-7 lead heading into the 4th quarter. It felt like the Pats were going to run out of gas and that the Chiefs were about to comeback at that point.

5) Here was a key sequence in the game. Early in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs score to make it 17-14, and Pats get stopped on 4th and 1 from KC 25, but the Patriots defense forces a three and out and gets a key stop there.

6) After the Julian Edelman review on the punt, Brady gets picked off by the Chiefs off a deflection. I thought the Chiefs were going to win the game at that point. Two plays later, Mahomes hits Damien Williams on a screen for a TD and it is 21-17 Chiefs with 7:45 to go.

7) Brady gets the ball down four and completely shreds the Chiefs defense and hits big throw after big throw and Sony Michel caps of the drive with a 10 yard TD run on 4th and 1 with 3:32 left in the game. I thought at that point that the Patriots were going to pull this game out.

8) Give Mahomes credit. He brought the Chiefs right back down the field and they go 5 plays 68 yards with and score on a Damien Williams 2 yard run to take the lead 28-24 with only 2:03 to go. Some people are killing Andy Reid for not using more time on that final drive, but I can't go crazy over that. He needed a touchdown and there was no guarantee he was going to get one. He had to score when he had to score. He ran the ball on first and goal and Williams scored before the two minute warning. Nothing he could do about that.

9) The Pats got the ball at their own 35 with 1:57 left in the game down four. This is what you want to see in a AFC title game. The play that will always be remembered in the offsides on Dee Ford. Ford lined up offside, the flag came out, the Pats ran the play and Brady got picked off on a deflection off Gronk's hands. It looked like the game was over and the Chiefs were going to win, but the Pats got another chance due to Ford's penalty.

10) Brady hits Gronk on a deep pass down the left sideline and it sets up a Rex Birkhead TD run with only 39 seconds left and the Pats lead 34-31. It was incredible to watch this all play out.

11) Mahomes completed two passes and the Chiefs were already down to the 21 yard line. Harrison Butker nailed the 39 yard field goal and the game fittingly was going to overtime.

12) The Patriots won the toss, elected to receive, and promptly went out and won the game. They went 75 yards in 13 plays and Brady completed three 3rd and 10s on the drive. Julian Edelman and Gronk came up huge once again on the drive, and Burkhead finished it off with a 2 yard run to win the game and send the Pats back to the Super Bowl.

13) It was an amazing game to watch. Brady and Mahomes going against each other. The way the Patriots executed their game plan on offense and shut down Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on defense. The way that 4th quarter played out was memorable. The teams traded scores all the way until the end of the quarter, and it was great theater.

14) I thought it was going to be the Chiefs year in the AFC. I really did, but their defense did them in once again this season. It will be interesting to see how Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs rally back after this loss and respond next season.

15) Once again the Pats are going back to Super Bowl. It will be their 9th appearance in the Brady-Belichick regime. Although they have had so many wins together during this run, this might be one of their shining moments.

Conference Championship Predictions and Picks!

Championship Sunday has arrived and it features the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC. There are plenty of storylines heading into these two games. The legacy of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes looking to send Kansas City to their first Super Bowl since the merger. The Saints trying to win one more Super Bowl with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Rams and Sean McVay trying to put a stamp on their new era. There are plenty of angles that these games will produce. I always try to look at the four potential Super Bowl matchups heading into Championship Sunday, and this is how I would rank them from most attractive to least attractive......

1) Rams vs. Patriots (McVay vs. Belichick, Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI which kicked off Pats dynasty)

2) Saints vs. Patriots (Brees vs. Brady)

3) Chiefs vs. Rams (Rematch of 54-51 shootout from November, Andy Reid going for first Super Bowl title)

4) Chiefs vs. Saints (Mahomes vs. Brees)

Now, onto the picks for Championship Sunday....

Last Week's Playoff Record: 1-3
Overall Playoff Record: 5-3
Overall Final Regular Season Record: 126-113-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NFC Championship Game
(2) Los Angeles Rams at (1) New Orleans

A Case for the Rams: They have been on the three best teams in the league all year long. They have a nice 1-2 punch going at RB with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. They can score points on this Saints defense. The Rams got the monkey off their back by beating the Cowboys last week and getting their first playoff win out of the way with Sean McVay. Speaking of McVay, he did a great job getting his team ready to play and then executing their gameplan. I think he will do another excellent job this week. They are the underdogs and lost already in New Orleans this year, so they can use that as motivation. I like what Wade Phillips can come up with the second time around facing that Saints offense. The pressure is on the Saints because they are older and the Rams are just getting started on their run. A lot of people are taking the Saints because the Rams are on the road, but they can feed off of that.

A Case for the Saints: They are at home and the Superdome will be rocking because they are hosting the NFC Championship for the first time since 2009. They are so much better at home and they already beat the Rams at home this season. The Saints also got a break last week in the win over Philly, so karma might be on their side. They looked like they were in trouble in that game, but they were able to come out on top, and now they might just go on a run from there. Brees and Payton haven't won a Super Bowl since 2009 and that was the only one that they won together. Maybe it is their time to get another one. Maybe it's just their year.

Prediction: NEW ORLEANS (-3) over LA Rams: In a game that goes back and forth, the Saints pull ahead and get one last stop on the Rams to preserve the victory and head to the Super Bowl for the second time in the Brees/Payton era.

Final Score: Saints-28 Rams-24

AFC Championship Game
(2) New England at (1) Kansas City

A Case for the Patriots: It is the Patriots so you can't be surprised if they pulled the upset here in Arrowhead. Nothing will phase Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. They have been here before and they won't get caught up in the moment. They even beat the Chiefs in Foxboro earlier this year. The pressure is really on the Chiefs to win this game. The Pats are also underdogs for the first time since 2014. They will use that as motivation for sure. You also have to favor Belichick over Andy Reid in any big game no matter where it is played. If any coach is going to figure out a way to frustrate and fool Pat Mahomes, you know it is going to be Belichick. The cold weather won't affect the Pats either. This sets up as a classic game where everyone doubted the Patriots and they come out and pull the upset.

A Case for the Chiefs: You have had the sense that it has been the Chiefs year in the AFC since Week 1. It has been Pat Mahomes year for sure. It is the classic passing of the torch game between Brady and Mahomes. This could be the beginning of the Mahomes era in the AFC, and what a way to kickstart that by beating the Pats at home in the AFC Championship. Andy Reid is long overdue as well. He has been a great coach in the NFL, but he has had his questionable moments in the playoffs and big games. This could be his signature moment as well. Also, the Chiefs franchise is due. They are one of the most successful franchises in the league, but don't have the playoff success to show for it. They are a great franchise from the AFL days, and were in two of the first four Super Bowls, but they haven't been back to the big game since Super Bowl IV. They haven't even hosted an AFC Championship Game until this year. Overall, they are the better team than the Pats, and once you factor in weather, homefield, crowd noise, and everything else, then all signs point to the Cheifs punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (-3) over New England: The Chiefs come out fast and flying early on, grab a big lead, and never look back as their make their first Super Bowl appearance since Super Bowl IV.

Final Score: Chiefs-33 Patriots-20

Divisional Round Recap and Reactions!

The final four in the NFL is all set. This past weekend saw all four of the top seeds advance. No road team was able to pull the upset and we have the #1 seeded Chiefs hosting the #2 seed Patriots in the AFC Championship and the #1 seeded Saints hosting the #2 seed Rams in the NFC Championship. Here is a recap of what went down on Divisional Weekend....

AFC Divisional Playoff
(1) Kansas City-31 (6) Indianapolis-13

1) The Chiefs dominated from the start. On cold, snowy day in Arrowhead Stadium, KC scored on its first two possessions to take a 14-0 lead. They never really let Indy back into the game. Indy just got punched in the mouth early on and couldn't recover.

2) The Colts had trouble protecting Andrew Luck. All year they did a great job of protecting him, but this game was different. Luck also did not look good in this game. Maybe it was the cold weather, but he definitely didn't look like the Andrew Luck we saw during the season.

3) The Colts gave themselves some life in the first half. They were down 17-0 when they blocked a KC punt and recovered it for a touchdown to make it 17-7. All that momentum went away when Pat Mahomes drove KC right back down the field and he scrambled for a TD to make it 24-7. Adam Vinatieri then missed a 23 yard field goal at the end of the half after the Colts finally put a drive together. Instead of being down 24-10 at the half, they were still down 24-7.

4) The other key sequence was when the Colts were trailing 24-7 late in the third quarter. After a Sammy Watkins fumble deep in KC territory, the Colts had a chance to cut into the lead, but Andrew Luck was strip sacked and the Chiefs recovered to basically put the game away.

5) This was a statement game by the Chiefs. All week a lot of people were picking the Colts. The Colts had become the trendy pick to pull off the upset in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs just buried them right off the bat. KC heads to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993, and they host their first AFC Championship Game next week.

NFC Divisional Playoff
(2) Los Angeles Rams-30 (4) Dallas-22

1) The Cowboys started fast. They held the Rams to only two field goals and Dak Prescott hit Amari Cooper for a TD to give Dallas a 7-6 lead in the first quarter. It looked like it might be Dallas' night after that start.

2) The Rams took control of the game from that point on. The story in this game is the the Rams running attack. They ran the ball down the Cowboys throats. Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson both had over 100 yards rushing. Gurley had one touchdown and Anderson had two. They dominated the game in that aspect and that was the big difference.

3) The Rams took a 23-7 lead, and you had a feeling that Dallas couldn't recover. Ezekiel Elliot's one yard rushing TD and two-point conversion made it 23-15 with 5:20 left in the third. After they forced a Rams punt, Dallas got the ball back and faced a 4th and 1 at the Rams 35 to start the fourth quarter. Elliot got stuffed up the middle for no gain and the Rams took possession. I hated the play call. You had to go for it there but running Elliot up the middle was just not going to work and it didn't. Naturally, the Rams came right down the field and put the game away with an Anderson 1 yard TD and took a 30-15 lead on their way to the 30-22 win.

4) The Rams advance to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2001. It is quite an accomplishment for Sean McVay in his second year as head coach of this team. Just two years ago, the Rams were considered one of the worst teams in all of the NFL and now they are one win away from the Super Bowl.

AFC Divisional Playoff
(2) New England-41 (5) Los Angeles Chargers-28

1) The Patriots won the toss, elected to receive, and came right down the field and went 83 yard in 14 plays and capped off the drive with a 1 yard TD run to give NE the 7-0 lead. That set the tone for the game right there.

2) Phillip Rivers hit Keenan Allen on a 43 yard TD to tie at 7 on the next drive. Right there I thought that this might be a great shootout. Boy, was I wrong.

3) NE answered with a 7 play 67 yard drive and Sony Michel 14 yard TD run gave the Pats a 14-7 lead and they never looked back.

4) A Tom Brady to Phillip Dorsett 15 yard TD made it 21-7, and a Rex Burkhead 6 yard run made it 28-7. The Chargers fumbled a punt at their own 35 and the Pats converted it into another touchdown to make it 35-7 at the half, and that was it for the game.

5) Give the Pats credit. A lot of people were picking against them this week, and they haven't look like the vintage Patriots all season long, but they were phenomenal on Sunday. They completely dominated the game, their offense looked the best it has all season, and they are playing in their 8th straight AFC Championship Game.

NFC Divisional Playoff
(1) New Orleans-20 (6) Philadelphia-14

1) You knew this was going to be a close game because the first three games weren't too surprising or dramatic. It had the feel of something crazy happening, and it almost did.

2) You can't ask for a better start than the Eagles got. They intercepted Drew Brees on the first play of the game. They scored on their first drive on a TD pass from Nick Foles to Jordan Matthews, and they forced a punt on the Saints next drive and scored again on a Foles 1 yard TD run to make it 14-0. Everything was going their way.

3) The game changed on a pair of plays in the second quarter. Foles got intercepted down the sideline attempting a deep throw with the Eagles up 14-0. Then, it looked like the Saints had to punt it away but Sean Payton dialed up a fake punt on 4th and 1 and Taysom Hill got the first down. Drew Brees finished off that drive with a touchdown pass on 4th and goal from the the two yard line and the Saints were back in it at 14-7. The Eagles never scored another point in the game.

4) The Saints took the lead for good after a 18 play 92 yard drive that Brees capped off with a 2 yard TD pass to Michael Thomas to give them a 17-14 lead with only 1:40 to go in the third quarter. It was amazing how often Brees found Thomas wide open during this game. Thomas is the best receiver on the Saints, yet he is open again and again on these big third down plays.

5) The Saints had a 20-14 lead late in the 4th quarter and went for a 52 yard field goal with 3:03 left to give them a nine point lead. Will Lutz pushed it wide right, and the Eagles had life. At that moment, I thought the Eagles were going to pull this game out.

6) Foles had the Eagles driving and with the help of a roughing the passer penalty, Philly had a 2nd and 10 at the NO 27 with just under two minutes to go. The Eagles had their dreams dashed after a Foles to Alshon Jeffrey pass went right through his hands and into the arms of New Orleans defender Marshon Lattimore for the game-clinching interception and the game was over. It was an abrupt and shocking ending for the Eagles and rough way to end their season. Everyone was expecting to see Foles come through down the stretch and win the game 21-20 for Philly.

7) The Saints advance to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2009 and will host the Rams in the Superdome next Sunday.

Divisional Round Preview and Picks!

People call this the best weekend of football the entire year, and it is easy to see why. The final eight teams,  the top four seeds get into action, four games in two days. There is a lot of to love about the NFL's Divisional Round. It is a great weekend of football. Put it this way: If you could send your wife and kids away for any weekend throughout the year, this is the weekend to pick. Here is the preview and predictions for the Divisional Playoffs.....

Last Week's Playoff Record: 4-0
Overall Playoff Record: 4-0
Overall Final Regular Season Record: 126-113-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

AFC Divisional Playoff
(6) Indianapolis at (1) Kansas City

A Case for the Colts: They are hottest team in the playoffs at this point. They went into Houston and buried the Texans convincingly. The Colts have nothing to lose here. There is no pressure on this team right now. They have exceeded expectations, and everything from here on out is gravy. Frank Reich has done a tremendous job with this group, and he has them believing. Andrew Luck is a difference maker, and he can win this game in Arrowhead all by himself. The KC defense is very suspect, and I can see Luck having a huge day, putting this team on his back, and winning the game on his own. All of the pressure in this game falls on the Chiefs and we know their spotty playoff history at home-especially after a bye week.

A Case for the Chiefs: The are the #1 seed in the AFC for a reason. They have the league MVP in Patrick Mahomes, and they offense is lethal-especially at home. They are rested and ready. This will be the third straight road game for the Colts, and that Arrowhead crowd will be beyond crazy because they know this is their best team in a long time and the road to the Super Bowl goes through KC. Plus, a lot of people are starting to get on the Colts bandwagon this week, and the Chiefs can use that as motivation all week long. They are being disrespected as a #1 seed, and that hasn't happened in the AFC in a long time. They can't possibly lose another home playoff game after a bye? Right?

Prediction: Indy (+6) over KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs avoid another home playoff letdown and barely get by the Colts and head to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993.
Final Score: Chiefs-30 Colts-27

NFC Divisional Playoff
(4) Dallas at (2) Los Angeles Rams

A Case for the Cowboys: They have nothing to lose in this spot here. They were 3-5 and looked like they were done for the year and they battled back, won the NFC East, and then won a home playoff game over Seattle last week. I think they are playing with house money in this game and they can play fast and loose. All the pressure is on the Rams. Plus, with this game in LA and at the LA Coliseum, there is going to A LOT of Cowboys fans at this game. The homefield advantage won't be that much of a factor as all the Cowboys fans will flood the Coliseum. How healthy is Todd Gurely? Couldn't you see the Cowboys offense controlling the clock with Ezekiel Elliot and dominating the time of possession and keeping the Rams offense off the field? I think Dallas can do that and frustrate the Rams all night.

A Case for the Rams: They went 13-3 for a reason and they were one of the three best teams in the league all year long. They lost their first playoff game last year at home, so I think they will learn from that experience. If you look at the coaching matchups, you have to favor Sean McVay over Jason Garrett  and Wade Phillips over Scott Linehan by a wide margin. I think the Rams are one of those teams that just wanted to get to the postseason this year. They knew they were a good team, they knew they were going to make the playoffs, and they knew their season would be defined by how far they went in the postseason. The regular season is over with and now the Rams can make their run.

Prediction: Dallas (+7) over LA RAMS: Great setting for this game: Primetime on Divisional Weekend on a Saturday night in the LA Coliseum. I think Dallas keeps this game close, but the Rams are too much in the end. They win their first playoff game since 2004, and advance to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2001.
Final Score: Rams-27 Cowboys-23

AFC Divisional Playoff
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England

A Case for the Chargers: They went into Baltimore last week and dominated the game. Melvin Ingram might be on a "Von Miller-2015" type of run during these playoffs. You have to love the way he is playing and you can see him and Joey Bosa giving Tom Brady fits on Sunday. Perhaps this really is Phillip Rivers' year. Maybe this is finally the time for him. He got through the Ravens on the road last week and now he gets to go to Foxboro and slay the dragon. All the pressure is on the Patriots. They aren't the same team as they were in the past few postseasons, and they are due to get knocked off before Championship round. They know they don't have many years left in the Brady-Belichick era.I don't think the Chargers are afraid of the Patriots at all, and they will use that as motivation.

A Case for the Patriots: You have to love the coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and Anthony Lynn if you are a Pats fan. Can you see Lynn going into Foxboro and outwitting Belichick? That is a tall order to ask. Also, the Pats know they aren't getting the same respect as they usually do in the playoffs, and they will be sick and tired of hearing how the Chargers are going to upset them on Sunday. I could see the Pats coming out on fire and getting up 14 points early before the Chargers know what hit them. Remember, this is the third straight road game for the Chargers and another early window on Sunday. Every time you think the Pats are done, it comes back to bite you. Do you really want to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the playoffs?

Prediction: LA Chargers (+5) over NEW ENGLAND: I'm so sick and tired of the Patriots and they have been to seven straight AFC Championship Games. I don't want to see them get there again. I've been burned before by going against them, but I'll take the Chargers to win in Foxboro and get to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2007.
Final Score: Chargers-31 Patriots-28

NFC Divisional Playoff
(6) Philadelphia at (1) New Orleans

A Case for the Eagles: They are on some sort of roll with Nick Foles. Something is in the water with Foles and the playoffs. It is now four times in a row going back to last year's playoffs. The Eagles are also on a magic carpet ride type of run going back to last year as well. They have nothing to lose and they can come into this game with no pressure-even after winning the Super Bowl last year. I also think they can use the motivation from getting killed 45-7 in the regular season as a way to play the "Nobody believes in us" card. You have seen teams get blown out by a team in the regular season and then play much better in the rematch in the playoffs. Put it this way: Would it surprise you if Nick Foles had the ball down 4 with two minutes to go and he starts a drive to put the Eagles in position to win the game?

A Case for the Saints: They are the best team in the NFC, and they are rested and at home in the Superdome on Sunday. We have seen the Saints jump on many teams in this spot and get out to an early lead and dominate their opponents. You could see this happening again this week. This is also the third straight road game for the Eagles, and that could play into the Saints favor. The Saints and Drew Brees just might be too much for the Eagles at this point. If the Saints are up 14-0 in the first quarter, the Eagles might just tip their cap and roll over.

Prediction: NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Philly: The Saints get up on the Eagles early, Philly rallies to make it a game, but in the end the Saints pull away to head to their first NFC Championship Game since 2009.
Final Score: Saints-34 Eagles-20

Broncos Name Vic Fangio Head Coach

On Wednesday, the Broncos named Vic Fangio the team's new head coach. Fangio, 60, is getting his first shot as a NFL head coach after being a longtime defensive coordinator. Fangio served as the Bears defensive coordinator this past season, and helped turn the Bears into the best defense in the league. Now, Fangio gets his shot as a NFL head coach and he gets his chance to turn the Broncos around. Fangio is known as a defensive genuis, and his players love him, but he is very hard-nosed and tough, so hopefully he can bring that style and change the culture in Denver. I always give every Broncos head coaching hire the benefit of the doubt (I was very skeptical about Vance Joseph though), so I will be positive about this hire. All I want is for the Broncos to be good again, and I hope that Fangio can do that and get this franchise back into the playoffs. Here are my quick thoughts on the hire.....

1) It is interesting that the Broncos went with a 60-year-old first-time head coach, who specializes on the defensive side of the ball, while the rest of the league is going with the young, offensive-minded coaches that fit the Sean McVay mold. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

2) I do think Fangio will get the Broncos defense playing at a high level again. There are still plenty of really good players on this defense and Fangio should be able to get that unit going once again.

3) I'm interested to see how Fangio and Elway co-exist. A lot of people say that Fangio is gruff and not the easiest personality to deal with. We'll see how this plays out.

4) It looks like Gary Kubiak might be back in the coaching fold as well. Kubes might be Fangio's offensive coordinator, or he might be an assistant head coach with offensive oversight and input to another OC. I don't mind that Kubiak is in the fold, I just hope we hire another OC with a more open mind to today's NFL offensive evolution.

5) Elway went from an inexperienced, player-friendly head coach in Vance Joseph to an older, disciplinarian in Vic Fangio. Teams always go from one extreme to the other in these head coaching hires.

6) As I said earlier, I am Broncos fan and I am excited that we have a new head coach. I'll get behind Fangio and hope that he can bring the Broncos back to the playoffs and get this franchise back on track. Go Broncos!

Wild Card Weekend Recap!

Three out of the four road teams advanced on Wild Card weekend. All four underdogs covered or won, and it sets up a very interesting Divisional Round next weekend. Before we look ahead later in the week, here is a look back at the reactions to the Wild Card games last weekend.

AFC Wild Card Game
Indianapolis-21 Houston-7
1) This game was over early. Indy went down and scored a TD on their first possession to make it 7-0. Houston went three and out, and Indy went down and scored another TD on their second possession and it was 14-0. Houston went for a 4th down at midfield on the next possession and didn't get it. A few possessions later, Indy scored and made it 21-0 at the half. The game was over by then. There was no chance at a comeback for the Texans.

2) Bill O'Brien got criticized for a few key decisions in the first half and he deserves the blame. He went for it on 4th down in the first quarter near midfield down 14-0 and DeShaun Watson got picked off. The Texans intercepted Andrew Luck on the ensuing drive, but I didn't like the call by O'Brien. He also went for it on 4th down late in the second quarter, instead of kicking a field goal. The Texans didn't get it again, and they were still down 21-0 at the half. I would have taken the three points there and at least got something going into halftime.

3) The Colts are simply the better team and deserve to win. Give their team credit. They were 1-5 and now they have won their first playoff game since 2014 and are headed to the Divisional Round. Give Frank Reich credit for the job he has done as a first-year head coach, but the key to the Colts is that Andrew Luck is finally healthy. He was hurt for half of 2015, most of 2016, and all of 2017. He is finally healthy and he is the reason why the Colts are playing so well now.

NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas-24 Seattle-22

1) The Cowboys deserve the credit for the win, but you can criticize Pete Carroll for not putting the game in Russell Wilson's hands. The play calling was very suspect for the Seahawks.

2) Jason Garrett big gaffe came in the first half when he decided to go for a 58 yard field goal with 3:17 left to play in the half. The Cowboys missed it, the Seahawks had good field position, and converted it into a field to make it 6-3 with 1:43 to go.

3) The Cowboys answered that scored with a touchdown drive of their own to take a 10-6 lead going into halftime. That was huge, and they went 75 yards in 1:19 to take the the lead.

4) The Seahawks took the lead at 14-10 after a Wilson touchdown run and two-point conversion (Sebastian Janokowski got hurt in the second quarter),  with 1:59 left it the third quarter, but the Cowboys answered it with another TD drive of their own. Ezikiel Elliot's 1 yard run put the Cowboys back up 17-14 with 12:28 left in the game.

5) The key sequence was after Dak Prescott got intercepted in the endzone on a batted ball and it gave Seattle hope with 9:43 to play down three. Seattle went three and out though, punted the ball back to Dallas, and the Cowboys went down and scored another TD to make it 24-14. I thought the Cowboys were in trouble when Prescott got intercepted, but they survived that sequence.

6) The Seahawks got a late touchdown and two-point conversion to give the gambling community a wild back door cover, but their onside kick failed, and the Cowboys have their first playoff win since 2014.

AFC Wild Card Game
LA Chargers-23 Baltimore-17

1) This game was all Chargers for 90% of the game, They dominated Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. Here were the Ravens first half possessions: Punt, fumble, punt, punt, interception, punt. By halftime, they were down 12-0 and if the Chargers didn't settle for field goals, then who knows how bad this game would have been. Many people were already calling for Jackson to get pulled in favor of Joe Flacco.

2) The Ravens were down 12-3 in the third quarter, and Justin Tucker missed a 50 yard field goal. You know it is not the Ravens day when Tucker misses a kick. The Chargers came down and scored a TD to make it 20-3.

3) The Ravens and Jackson made a furious comeback late. They scored two touchdowns and forced two Chargers punts to cut the game to 23-17. The game would have been over if it wasn't for a hold on Russell Okung that negated a first down run by Melvin Gordon. The Ravens got the ball back with 45 seconds left at their own 34, but Jackson got sacked and fumbled and the Chargers recovered to put the game away.

4) The Chargers won their first playoff game since 2013, and the Ravens head into the offseason wondering for sure if Lamar Jackson is the future at QB for their franchise.

NFC Wild Card Game
Philadelphia-16 Chicago-15

1) This was the best game of the weekend, and it featured Nick Foles doing his magic once again. You have to start to wonder if this whole Foles-Eagles thing is not a fluke. Perhaps Carson Wentz is not the answer in Philly? Foles was big down the stretch and his TD throw on 4th and goal to Golden Tate to give the Eagles the lead late in the 4th quarter was a great play. You just had a feeling he was going to drive them down for the winning score late in the game.

2) The Bears are going to be kicking themselves over losing this one. I felt they should have won the game and advanced. You never know when you will get these chances, and the Bears are a young team with a bright future, but you just never know. This one stings badly and it will really be a long offseason for the Bears and their fans.

3) I thought Matt Nagy should have called his timeouts earlier on the Eagles final drive. He waited too long once they get inside the Bears 10. He needed to get the ball back with more time than they did. I also hated his two point conversion play when the Bears scored in the 4th quarter to make it 15-10.

4) Give Mitch Trubisky credit. He made the throws to get his team in position to win the game and it came down to Coby Parkey to hit a 43 yarder to win and he missed it. The fact that it hit the upright and the crossbar and went out was just a brutal way to end the game. Parkey has to make that kick.

5) The Eagles were dead in the water at 6-7 and Wentz getting hurt. Now, they are advancing to the Divisional Round where they will take on the Saints next weekend. The Bears beat the Vikings on purpose and it ensured the Eagles that they would be playing the Bears, and it came back to bite the Bears and eliminate them. They were better off losing to the Vikings and then playing the Vikings again this past weekend and probably advancing. You really can't make this stuff up.

Wild Card Weekend Picks!

Although the Broncos season is over and I'm looking forward to the 2019 offseason for them, I still get excited about the next three weeks of playoff football. I love Wild Card weekend, and this year we have four good games in two days. All four road teams have a solid chance to win, and each game could be very close. Let's dive into these games and make some predictions for the first round of the 2019 NFL Playoffs.....
Last Week's  (Week 17) Record: 10-6-0
Overall Final Regular Season Record: 126-113-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


AFC Wild Card Game
(6) Indianapolis at (3) Houston

A Case for the Colts: They are the hot team coming into the playoffs. After a 1-5 start, the Colts finished 9-1 and ended the season 10-6 and clinch the 6th seed in the AFC. Indy also should have tied the Texans earlier in the season, but Frank Reich decided to go for it in his own end near the end of overtime, which led to an easy Texans field goal. Also, Indy buried the Texans a month ago in Houston, so you know the Colts can win there. Plus, you have to like the way Andrew Luck has been played this year, and he can be very dangerous as an underdog in this spot. You could see him just taking the game over like he did in the 2013 Wild Card Game comeback win over the Chiefs. The Colts could be that feisty team that no one wants to see in the playoffs, and they are a fun team to root for in this spot because no one thought they would be in the playoffs this year. This is very dangerous team.

A Case for the Texans: The Texans are a hot team as well. After starting 0-3, they ripped off 11 of 13 and finished 11-5 and AFC South Champions. You have to like the way DeShaun Watson has played this year, and knowing how good he was on the big stage in college, I don't think playing in his first playoff game will affect him. I think he will play well. The Texans are at home and they can let their defense tee off on Andrew Luck-if they can get to him. After losing at home to the Colts a month ago, Houston should be able to make adjustments and shore things up this time around. Can Indy actually go in there and beat them in Houston twice in a month? I'm not sure that will happen, and might be too tall of an order.

Prediction: Indy (+3) over HOUSTON: Andrew Luck goes into Houston and knocks off the Texans once again. In a great duel between Luck and DeShaun Watson, the Colts come out with a win and move onto Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
Final Score: Colts-27 Texans-24

NFC Wild Card Game
(5) Seattle at (4) Dallas

A Case for the Seahawks: Seattle has a very good chance to win because of Russell Wilson. He has been phenomenal this year. He can put this team on his back and win this game on his own. I love the running game of the Seahawks too, so they can control the game if they get a lead. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Seattle, but they have exceeded expectations. No one picked them to make the playoffs, and here they are. They are playing with house money, and look for them to play fast and loose. You also have to love the coaching edge with Pete Carroll over Jason Garrett in this spot.

A Case for the Cowboys: Dallas got here after being 3-5 at the midway point of the season and finished 7-1 the second half to go 10-6. Their defense is playing very well, and they can use that advantage at home on Saturday night. They are a very different team on defense and on offense from the team that lost to Seattle in Week 3 this year.The crowd will be fired up and able to help them against the Seattle offense. The Cowboys have won only one playoff game since 1997. They are due for another win and at home on Saturday night, they have as good of a chance as they have had in a while.

Prediction: Seattle (+3) over DALLAS: This is a great primetime game, and I think it will be back and forth. I think Russell Wilson has the ball with over two minutes to go and down four. I think he comes through in the clutch and sends Dallas home with another playoff heartbreaker.
Final Score: Seahawks-24 Cowboys-20

AFC Wild Card Game
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Baltimore Ravens

A Case for the Chargers: They have been one of the best teams in the NFL all year long. They are 7-1 on the road, and can go into any building and win a game. Remember, they won on the road in Pittsburgh and Kansas City down the stretch. Philip Rivers is playing some of the best ball of his career, and he has never been to a Super Bowl. Maybe this is his year? This might be his last shot, so you never know if he will get to this spot again. Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have all won Super Bowls, and Rivers has never even been to one. He could be due for a run here. The Chargers lost at home two weeks ago to the Ravens, but they can learn a lot from that game. It's hard to beat a team twice in three weeks, and I think the Chargers can use that to their advantage.

A Case for the Ravens: The Ravens have the best defense playing this weekend. They can shut the door on anyone and they did it to the Chargers offense two weeks ago in LA. They are at home, and they are playing at 1:00pm EST on Sunday-the early television window. The Chargers have to come all the way across the country and play early on Sunday. That should give the Ravens an advantage. We don't know how the Lamar Jackson situation will play out long term, but it has worked very well for the Ravens down the stretch. In a single elimination tournament, you could see Jackson doing his thing and giving the Chargers fits all afternoon. You also have to give the Ravens an edge in the coaching department. John Harbaugh has way more playoff experience than Anthony Lynn.

Prediction: LA Chargers (+3) over BALTIMORE: This is another tough game to pick, but I'll take the Chargers to figure out a way to force Lamar Jackson to be uncomfortable. I think Phillip Rivers makes one or two big throws to sway the outcome and give the Chargers their first playoff win since 2013.
Final Score: Chargers-26 Ravens-20

NFC Wild Card Game
(6) Philadelphia at (3) Chicago

A Case for the Eagles: The Eagles were dead in the water three weeks ago, and it looked like there was no chance that they would make the playoffs. Throw in the Carson Wentz back injury, and there was no way Nick Foles was going to step in and lead them to wins over the Rams, Texans, and Redskins and get the help needed to make the playoffs. All of that happened, and Foles has been amazing these last three games. It's uncanny how the Eagles have played around him once again. The whole Foles storyline is enough to give you faith if you are an Eagles fan. Plus, they can play off the whole underdog angle from last year because no one thought they were going to make the playoffs a few weeks ago. No one will be surprised if the Eagles pick off Mitch Trubisky a few times in the first half and Foles is hitting Alshon Jeffrey on deep bombs while they jump to a 21-3 lead. Also, the Eagles are playing with house money. They won a Super Bowl last year, gave their long suffering fans a championship, and now snuck their way into the playoffs this year. This makes for a very dangerous team on Sunday in Chicago.

A Case for the Bears: A solid team from start to finish this year. They have a very good defense and that will be a huge factor for them-especially being at home. You could see them getting Khalil Mack going off the edge and that defense forcing turnovers. Also, they are young. Matt Nagy is a first-year head coach, and Mitch Trubisky is in his second year as a starter. Maybe they don't know any better. Plus, the crowd in Chicago on Sunday will be wild. They are old-school, loyal fanbase, and they haven't had a home playoff game since the 2010 NFC Championship Game. They will be a factor in this game without a doubt. I love how the Bears shutdown the Rams a month ago at home, and I could see them doing the same here in this spot to the Eagles.

Prediction: Philly (+6) over CHICAGO: I think the Bears will win the game, but I think it will be close. I have a feeling the Eagles will play well, but look for the Bears to pull it out and get their first playoff victory since 2010.
Final Score: Bears-25 Eagles-22

Broncos Fire Vance Joseph

On Monday morning, hours after the Broncos season finale loss to the Chargers, Vance Joseph learned the news from John Elway that we had expected: He was out as head coach. We all expected it to happen, and after two years I had seen enough myself. VJ finished 11-21 in two years, and had back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in franchise history since 1971-1972. You can't survive that in Denver. I was skeptical of VJ from the moment he was hired, and I never understood the fascination John Elway had when he named him head coach. I'll never understand how Elway, who was around great coaches like his dad, Dan Reeves, Gary Kubiak, and Mike Shanahan, zeroed in on Joseph. I just didn't get it then and after two years, I was right. VJ was in over his head. His teams lacked discipline, (Baltimore game)2018 and Raiders game 2017) got outschemed or outcoached (Jets game and 49ers game 2018) too many times, and his game management decisions were pretty bad-especially this season (Texans and Browns game). There are some people that say that he never had a chance because of the QB situation he dealt with, but he just isn't the guy to lead this franchise. It was time for him to go. Now, we can move on and find a new head coach to lead this team. I know John Elway deserves his criticism and blame for the mess the Broncos have become, but I think he can right the ship. It starts with finding the right coach, and I think that Elway can still be the guy to find that next head man. I'll keep updating the blog with news and notes about possible candidates as the coaching search moves along.

Broncos Lose Season Finale to Chargers, Finish 6-10, Fire Vance Joseph

The Broncos finished the 2018 season with a 23-9 loss to the Chargers in Mile High. The Broncos finished the season 6-10 and fired Vance Joseph the next day. I'll get to VJ on a later post, but this game was just an afterthought. It was certainly demoralizing to watch the Broncos play meaningless football in Week 17 for the third straight year. There is not a lot to get into with this game, but here are my thoughts and observations.....

1) One sequence that summarized this season was when the Broncos were driving near the end of the first half down 7-0. Case Keenum got picked off in the endzone, and the Chargers defender tried to return it, fumbled it, and Denver recovered. Naturally, the Broncos settled for a field goal and a were down 7-3 instead of tying it.

2) Another sequence that summed up this season was when the Broncos scored to make it 14-9 on a nice throw from Keenum to Janovich early in the 4th quarter. The Broncos decided to go for two, and naturally Keenum got intercepted and the Chargers returned it 99 yards for a two point score and they led 16-9. That just about summed up the 2018 Denver Broncos right there.

3) There is really nothing left to say in this game. It was sloppy, the offense was unproductive, and the Broncos seemed to mail it in. By finishing 6-10, the Broncos had back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1971-1972. The writing was on the wall as Vance Joseph was fired the next day, and the Broncos begin their search for his replacement. It was a weird season. They started 2-0, lost 4 in a row, and at one point were 3-6. They rebounded with three big wins over the Chargers, Steelers, and Bengals to get to 6-6. Unfortunately, the Broncos then lost their last four games and finished 6-10. There may not be a lot of optimism and hope for the Broncos and their fans right now, but a lot can change in the NFL. Let's hope for a new head coach and brighter days in the future for the Broncos.