Broncos-Saints and Week 12 Picks

Everytime I feel like the Broncos are gaining momentum and turning this season, something happens that makes me doubt that turnaround. This week is no different. Denver beats Miami last week to get to 4-6 and they host New Orleans on Sunday, but this week they have had two players test positive for Covid (Jeff Driskel and Diontae Spencer) and two staff members. They had to cancel practice on Friday. Driskel being out doesn't affect them, but Spencer is their main returner. Jerry Jeudy is questionable to play because of an ankle injury that popped up this week.  Shelby Harris is still out this week due to Covid and he might be back next week. It seems like this would be a spot that Denver would surprise people, but I don't think they will have enough to get it done.

New Orleans (-6) over DENVER

Final Score: Saints-27 Broncos-20

Last Week's Record: (6-7)

Overall Record (79-75-7)

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Now, onto the quick picks for Week 12......

NEW ENGLAND (+2) over Arizona:

MINNESOTA (-4) over Carolina:

Cleveland (-6) over JACKSONVILLE:

Chargers (+6) over BUFFALO:

JETS (+7) over Miami:

Giants (-4) over CINCINNATI:

Tennessee (+4) over INDIANAPOLIS:

ATLANTA (+3) over Las Vegas:

RAMS (-6) over San Francisco:

TAMPA BAY (+4) over Kansas City:

Chicago (+8) over GREEN BAY:

Seattle (-5) over PHILADELPHIA: 

PITTSBURGH (-4) over Baltimore

Thanksgiving Day Picks!

 Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks:

Houston (+3) over DETROIT

DALLAS (-2) over Washington

PITTSBURGH (-4) over Baltimore

Broncos Upset Dolphins 20-13, Improve to 4-6

 The Broncos snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-13 win over the Dolphins in Denver on Sunday. The win improved the Broncos record to 4-6. It was a game in which Denver's defense dominated throughout and they even forced Tua Tagovailoa to the bench early in the 4th quarter. Here are my thoughts and observations on the win.....

1) Justin Simmons made the game-saving interception on Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins were driving with only a few minutes left in the game. Simmons has had a big year, and he deserves a long-term deal in Denver next year.

2) The Broncos defense was dominant in this game. They suffocated Tua all game and registered 6 sacks. Miami actually got better when they put Fitzpatrick in the game because they had not shot with Tua in there. He looked overwhelmed. Credit Vic Fangio and his defense for coming up with a stifling gameplan.

3) The game was only close at the end because Melvin Gordon fumbled at the Miami 1 yard line going into the endzone for a touchdown that would have made it 27-13. Instead, the fumble kept the score at 20-13 and gave the Dolphins a chance. This Broncos team just doesn't make things easy.

4) Drew Lock started 0-6 on the day and threw an interception on the third play of the game. After that, he settled in and played very well. The Broncos were able to run the ball effectively with Gordon and Philip Lindsay (FINALLY) and it kept the pressure off of Lock. He was able to hit some big passes off of play action, especially on first down, and made some really nice throws as the game went on. This is what they have to do for Lock. Run the ball, play-action off of it, and keep Lock in manageable situations. 

5) This was a good win for Denver considering that they were underdogs to the 6-3 Dolphins and no one picked them to win the game. Denver improves to 4-6 and they host the Saints next week with Taysom Hill at QB, who is subbing for the injured Drew Brees. Let's hope they can get another win and get to 5-6.

Broncos-Dolphins and Week 11 Picks

I don't see how the Broncos and their offense are all of sudden going to turn it around against a team that is playing really good defense right now. The Dolphins defense really confused and harassed Justin Herbert last week and I see them doing the same to the Broncos and their offense. Drew Lock is questionable with a rib injury, so we might even see Brett Rypien play in this game. Either way, I don't think it will matter as Miami is playing well, and I think Denver is trending in the wrong direction unfortunately.

Miami (-3) over DENVER

Prediction: Dolphins-29 Broncos-10

Now, onto the picks for Week 10....

Last Week's Record: 5-7-2

Overall Record (73-68-7)

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta: Drew Brees is out for at least a few weeks so in steps Jameis Winston. I know a lot of people are not taking the Saints this week, but I think Sean Payton will find a way to maximize the strength of Winston and Taysom Hill and find a way to win this game.

Cincinnati (+1) over WASHINGTON: I like the Bengals here on the road to defeat Washington and get their third win of the year.

Detroit (+3) over CAROLINA: Teddy Bridgewater is questionable to play and Christian McCaffrey is out again with a shoulder injury, so I'll take the Lions to get to 5-5.

Philadelphia (+3) over CLEVELAND: A lot of people are picking the Browns, but I think the Eagles will pull the upset on the road to get their record to 4-5-1.

Pittsburgh (-10) over JACKSONVILLE: The Steelers won't mess around and they take care of business in the Jacksonville. 

Tennessee (+7) over BALTIMORE: The Ravens will win the game, but it will be close throughout. This is a huge game in the AFC playoff picture. 

Green Bay (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS: The marquee late game on Sunday afternoon is the 7-2 Packers heading to Indy to take on the 6-3 Colts. I think Aaron Rodgers goes into Lucas Oil Stadium and lights up the Colts.

CHARGERS (-8) over Jets: Justin Herbert and the Chargers will get their 3rd win of the year with an easy, blowout victory over the Jets on Sunday.

Dallas (+7) over MINNESOTA: The Vikings have won three in a row and are 4-5 and creeping into the NFC playoff race. They host the 2-7 Cowboys, who get Andy Dalton back at QB. I think the Vikings get to 5-5,  but it will be a lot closer than people think.

Kansas City (-7) over LAS VEGAS: There is no way the Chiefs are getting swept by the Raiders this season. Plus, a majority of the Raiders defense has been out all week due to Covid protocols. KC rolls big.

Rams (+4) over TAMPA BAY: Great Monday Night Football game a few days before Thanksgiving. I love the Rams in this game-even on the road. I think this a great game that goes back and forth, but I'm taking the Rams and the points. 

Week 11 TNF Pick

 SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona

Broncos Get Thrashed by Raiders 37-12, Fall to 3-6

I said going into this game that this was a must-win for the Broncos and also a very important game for their organization. Well, after that 37-12 debacle to the Raiders, Denver has now officially broke me. I'm really disappointed in the Broncos and their franchise at this point. With the loss, the Broncos are now at 3-6 and looking at a fourth straight losing season, and another set of meaningless games come December. This year was supposed to be at least different and exciting as opposed to the last three seasons, but it is more of the same. It has become very disappointing and uninspiring to watch this team and this franchise every week, and there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel in this current situation. Here are my thoughts and observations on the loss.....

 1) Drew Lock was awful-plain and simple. It is getting ugly for Lock out there. He threw four interceptions, and looked like he hit rock bottom. Outside of some garbage time stats and the 4th quarter of the Chargers game, Lock hasn't been very good at all. I'm rooting for him and I like him, but he is just falling apart right now and he might not look like the guy this franchise desperately needs. We have to start thinking about QB options once again in 2021.

2) The defense could only do so much but the turnovers and bad offensive play just didn't help them out. This wasn't all on the defense. The defense did quit the last quarter. Shelby Harris being out of the lineup due to Covid didn't help in this game either.

3)The one key sequence in this game was with Denver trailing 10-6 late in the 2nd quarter, Lock scored on QB run, but it was called back because of Noah Fant holding. On the next play, Lock threw a brutal interception and that ended the half and any chance Denver had of winning this game.

4) The Broncos allowed over 30 points in four straight games. This is the first time since the 1960s that has happened to this franchise. It is just another example of futility that this team has endured the last four years.

5) Denver is 3-6 for the fourth straight season. This is the worst stretch of Broncos football in my lifetime. It is so bad that I am telling my sons that they can go around and pick another team to root for in the NFL. I want them to enjoy the NFL and fun and excitement of those football Sundays. I don't see how the Broncos are going to be a successful, winning franchise for a long, long time. 

6) Denver hosts the 6-3 Dolphins next week in Denver. They are underdogs once again and it looks like they are headed to 3-7. This team has no direction in their QB for the future, the team going nowhere, there are questions in the coaching staff and front office. They are also in a division with the face of the NFL in Pat Mahomes and the juggernaut Chiefs, and a budding star in Justin Herbert for the Chargers. The path to become successful is very difficult right now. This is as broken as I have been as a Broncos fan.

Broncos-Raiders and Week 10 Picks

This is a very important game for the Broncos and their organization. If they lose, then they will be 3-6 and almost have to run the table or go 6-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs. A win here and they are 4-5 and host Miami next week in a winnable game and at 5-5 they would have a shot to make a run. Also, we all know that they are a young team with a lot of injuries, but enough with the excuses. It is the NFL. There are no more excuses. Figure out a way to make it work and get a win. We need the young guys to step up and play big. We are done waiting for that to happen next week, next month, or next year. Take the next step as a team and organization, and take it now. As much as I think Denver can pull the upset, everytime I get excited about the Broncos, they let me down-just like last week. The Raiders run game will be too much for the depleted Broncos defensive line including Shelby Harris, who is out after testing positive for Covid-19. The Raiders will go to 6-3.

LAS VEGAS (-5) over Denver

Final Score: Raiders-28 Broncos-16

Now, onto the picks for Week 10....

Last Week's Record: 6-8

Overall Record (68-61-5)

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

DETROIT (-3) over Washington: The Lions rebound and get to 4-5 with a home win over the 2-6 Redskins.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston: The Browns coming off a bye week get to 6-3 with a big home win.

GREEN BAY (-12) over Jacksonville: The Packers go to 7-2 with an easy home win over the Jags.

Philadelphia (-3) over NY GIANTS: This game will go back and forth, but I think the Eagles will do enough to win the game late.

Tampa Bay (-6) over CAROLINA: The Bucs are coming off a blowout loss at home to the Saints last week, and I expect them to bounce back and take care of business on the road in Carolina.

LA Chargers (+3) over MIAMI: The Chargers have blown so many games this year and they keep finding a way to lose, but I think they win the game outright over the Dolphins in Miami.

ARIZONA (PICK) over Buffalo: Fun game in Arizona between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. I think the Cards defense will make enough plays to stop the Bills and win the game.

LA RAMS (-1) over Seattle: Huge game in the NFC West. The 5-3 Rams take on the 6-2 Seahawks. I think the Rams will get the win over Seattle and create a tie atop the NFC West.

San Francisco (+10) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints will win the game, but I think the Niners will find a way to cover. 

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH: I think the Steelers will win the game but I would not be shocked if they lost and got upset by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I think this game is close throughout.

NEW ENGLAND (+7) over Baltimore: I think the Ravens will win the game, but I think the Pats will somehow keep it close.

CHICAGO (+2) over Minnesota: The 5-4 Bears will rebound and knock off the 3-5 Vikings on Monday Night Football. The Bears need this game and they will get it.

Titans-Colts TNF Pick

 TENNESSEE (-2) over Indy

Falcons Hold Off Broncos 34-27, Broncos now 3-5

The Broncos fell to the Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday and as a result Denver is now 3-5 at the halfway point of the season. The Broncos were down early in the game and were trailing at halftime 20-3. It was 34-13 midway through the 4th quarter, and once again the Broncos rallied to make it close but couldn't tie it late. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game.....

1) The Broncos efense got smoked all day long. No AJ Bouye and Bryce Callahan, both out with injuries,  killed this secondary. Not having Shelby Harris didn't help either. CB Davontae Adams is not very good, and he got beat time and time again.

2) Why did this team cut DeVaunte Bausby? We could have used him on Sunday. There was no reason to get rid of him in the first place. 

3) The offense had another slow start. The defense couldn't stop the  Falcons, and  the offense couldn't put together points and drives.  The Broncos were down 20-3 at the half. They couldn't run the ball and Drew Lock was constantly being pressured.

4) Lock played better down the stretch when the game was out of reach at 34-13. His interception at 27-13 early in the 4th quarter was a killer. He needs to play a full, dominant game soon. He can't rack up stats in garbage time.

5) The Broncos missed out on an opportunity to get to 4-4. Now at 3-5, it will be an uphill climb to back into contention. Upcoming four games are tough. It starts this Sunday in Vegas against the 5-3 Raiders. This is another big test and huge game for this organization in my opinion.

Broncos-Falcons and Week 9 Picks

The Broncos pulled off a dramatic, season-saving comeback win over the Chargers last Sunday in Denver to improve their record to 3-4. The 31-30 win is the kind of game that can be a turning point for a team in their season. The Broncos are certainly hoping that is the case. A very winnable game against the 2-6 Falcons could get the Broncos to 4-4 and a .500 record for the first time since December of 2018. This Falcons game is tricky because although Atlanta is 2-6, they have blown late leads and lost three brutal games to Detroit, Chicago, and Dallas. They could easily be 5-3 or 4-4. Their offense still has some firepower and they look like they are playing hard for interim head coach Raheem Morris. Denver is still dealing with their own injury issues, and they could be without DL Shelby Harris, who is in Covid protocol for exposure to someone with a positive case. This game just gets me nervous from a Denver standpoint and I think they fall short this week.

ATLANTA (-4) over Denver

Final Score: Falcons-27 Broncos-20

Now, onto the picks for Week 9....

Last Week's Record: 8-5-1

Overall Record (60-53-5)

Seattle (-2) over BUFFALO: 6-2 Buffalo hosts 6-1 Seattle. This should be one of the better games in of the day. Although Seattle is making the long trip East and playing in the early window, I like the Seahawks to roll through the Bills.

MINNESOTA (-4) over Detroit: The Vikings surprised the Packers last week with a win in Lambeau, and now they are 2-5. The Lions come in at 3-4 so this is an important game for them to get to 4-4. I think the Vikings will find a way and be too much for the Lions.

Carolina (+10) over KANSAS CITY: The 3-5 Panthers take on the 7-1 Chiefs. KC will win the game, but with Christian McCaffrey coming back from injury, I think that the Panthers can keep this close and cover the spread.

New York Giants (+3) over WASHINGTON: The Giants are the best 1-7 team in football. Their only win was over Washington a month ago, and I think they get their second win here as well.

Houston (-6) over JACKSONVILLE: Two 1-6 teams going at it in the bottom of the AFC South. I'll take Houston and DeShaun Watson.

Chicago (+6) over TENNESSEE: This is an important game for two teams with winning records battling it out. The Titans are 5-2 after losing two in a row. The Bears are 5-3 after losing two in a row. I think Tennessee wins the game, but the Bears will cover. 

Baltimore (-2) over INDIANAPOLIS: Two 5-2 teams meet up in another critical AFC matchup. This game could go a long way to determining playoff seeding and wild card berths down the road. Look for the Ravens to get a huge win on the road here.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1) over Las Vegas: At 2-5, the Chargers have blown so many leads it is unbelievable. I think the Chargers will get the win at home on Sunday over the 4-3 Raiders

ARIZONA (-4) over Miami: The Dolphins are a surprise 4-3 team right now and they are in the mix in the AFC playoff picture. The Cardinals are 5-2 and having a very solid season. This could be a fun one with Tua going up against Kyler Murray. I'll take the Cards at home.

Pittsburgh (-12) over DALLAS: At 2-6, the Cowboys season has unraveled. The Steelers come in at 7-0, and the last undefeated team in the NFL. I can't see the Steelers stubbing their toe here with their defense against the beat-up Cowboys.

TAMPA BAY (-5) over New Orleans: Great Sunday Night Football game on NBC. Tom Brady and the 6-2 Bucs get their second shot at the 5-2 Saints after losing to them in Week 1. Now, New Orleans comes to Tampa for the rematch. I really like how Tampa is playing, and the story has been their defense as well as Tom Brady. Now, they get Antonio Brown in the mix. It should be interesting on Sunday night, and I like the Bucs in this matchup.

New England (-7) over NEW YORK JETS: The Pats are 2-5 after losing late last week at Buffalo. You have to think they will find a way to turn it around over the 0-8 Jets in the Meadowlands on Monday Night Football. 

Week 9 TNF Pick

 Green Bay (-5) over SAN FRANCISCO 

Down 24-3, Broncos Rally to Defeat Chargers on Last Play of the Game

There hasn't been a lot of excitement in Denver since Peyton Manning retired and the Broncos won Super Bowl 50. Denver rallied from a 24-3 second half deficit and scored 21 points in the 4th quartet to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in a thrilling comeback at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. The win improved the Broncos record to 3-4, and the type of win that you can hopefully look back on as a turning point for this franchise. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game....

1) I thought the defense did a nice job on Justin Herbert for most of the first half and then they gave up some big plays late in the half. Justin Simmons had a nice pick on Herbert on the Chargers third play of the game, and they stopped them on a 4th down play deep in Denver territory. Yes, Herbert got hot at one point, but he was aided by a defensive holding call late in the first half that nullified a sack. The Chargers were also able to gash the Broncos defense in the run game a few times, and that helped Herbert and that offense build a 24-3 lead. Herbert is good, especially for a rookie QB, but let's not put him in the Hall of Fame just yet.

2) The Broncos offense was downright awful in the first half. Drew Lock was having a very rough day, and the play-calling made me scratch my head a few times. They couldn't run the ball and they just looked really bad on offense for a long stretch. I was actually thinking that Lock was going to get pulled in the 3rd quarter. I really thought they might go to Brett Rypien at one point.

4) Turning point #1 of the comeback came when Herbert got intercepted by Bryce Callahan in end zone in the third quarter with the Chargers up 24-10. After Philip Lindsay gave Denver some life by breaking a long TD run to cut the lead to 24-10, the Broncos got the ball back and Lock promptly threw an awful pick into double coverage. Herbert then threw one of his own in the endzone on a third down play. If there is no interception there, then the Chargers will attempt a short field goal and probably be up 27-10. Give Callahan credit for making that great play.

5) Turning point #2 of the comeback was the quick score from Lock to DaeSean Hamilton on a 40 yard pass play to cut it to 27-24 midway through 4th quarter. After LAC extended their lead to 27-17, the Broncos answered right away with a big Lindsay run, a late hit penalty on LAC, and the TD strike from Lock to Hamilton. They were back to within 3 points without wasting any time.

6) Turning point #3 of the comeback was the personal foul on Hunter Henry for an illegal crackback block on Chargers final drive. The Chargers had to settle for a field goal and 30-24 lead. It left the door open for Lock at then end.

7) What a great drive by Lock to win it at the end. They went 81 yards in 14 plays with 2:30 seconds left and one timeout. The drive was aided by two pass interference calls, one was for a first down near midfield and the other set up the Broncos at the LAC 1 yard line with one second to go. The two underrated plays were when Lock scrambled and found Hamilton for a first down and Melvin Gordon diving  for the first down on a key third down late in the game and deep in LAC territory. After the pass interference on Albert O in the end zone . The Broncos had one play from the 1 yard line with one second left. It was a great pass from Lock to KJ Hamler to win it. Lock rolled right and bid time as he rolled out and found Hamler, who caught the pass and fell on his backside to secure it in the endzone. Brandon McManus nailed the extra point and the Broncos fulfilled the comeback 31-30.

8) What a game and what a comeback. It has been a long time since the Broncos had a win like that. I'm happy for the team and happy for Lock. I thought this could be the end of Lock in Denver at one point in this game, and he played great in the 4th quarter to secure the comeback. He finished 26-41 for 248 yards with 3 TDs and 1 Int. This was definitely his signature game of his young Broncos career, and maybe the turning point for him as the guy in Denver. John Elway led Denver from a 21-0 deficit to beat the Colts in his rookie year in 1983. Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a win over the Chargers in 2012 after being down 24-0. Now, Lock leads Denver back to a win over the Chargers after being down 24-3. Let's hope this is the start of something special for Lock and the Broncos.

9) At 3-4, the Broncos have a chance to make something of the season once again. They have to get a win next week at Atlanta against the 2-6 Falcons. They need to get to 4-4 and then see if they can make a run at this thing.