Championship Sunday Picks

It is time for Championship Sunday in the NFL. The final four teams are set, and at this point in the playoffs, I always like to look at the possibilities that would create the best Super Bowl matchup. Here's how I rank the possible Super Bowl games in order:

1) Chiefs vs Rams: This game has plenty of star power on both sides. Plus, the last time these two teams played it was that classic shootout on Monday Night Football a few years ago.

2) Chiefs vs 49ers: This game would be a rematch of the Super Bowl from two years ago. That was a really good game, and this rematch would not disappoint.

3) Rams vs Bengals: This game would feature Zac Taylor going against his old mentor, Sean McVay. Plus, you would get the upstart Bengals going into LA to take on the star-studded Rams

4) 49ers vs Bengals: This would be a rematch of Super Bowls XVI and XXIII. Both of those were won by the 49ers.  

Now, onto the picks for Championship Sunday.....

Last Week's Record: 2-2-0

Overall Playoff Record: 6-3-1

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

AFC Championship Game

(4) Cincinnati at (2) Kansas City

A Case for the Bengals: They are the true underdog of the four teams left. No one thought they would be here, and they can use that as motivation. Even after beating the Chiefs in Week 17, no one believes they will win this game in Arrowhead. They can play fast and loose. They can let it all hang out. They won two close games to get here, and they might not get nervous if it is a close game late. Maybe Joe Burrow really takes the leap here with a dominating performance. 

A Case for the Chiefs: The fact that they outlasted the Bills and won that game in the Divisional Round tells me that KC is going to win this game and get to another Super Bowl. I can't see them losing this game-especially with the way they beat the Bills last week. It looked like they were going to lose with only 13 seconds left, but they tied it and won it in overtime. It felt like the winner of that game was going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They will take the Bengals seriously because they already lost to them in the regular season, and I think Pat Mahomes and that offense will dominate from start to finish. Plus, they get to host this game because the Titans were upset last week, and this will be the third straight home game for the Chiefs. 

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (-7) over Cincinnati: The Bengals were a fun story, but the Chiefs win and advance to their third straight Super Bowl. 

Final Score: Chiefs-34 Bengals-24

NFC Championship Game

(6) San Francisco at (3) Los Angeles Rams

A Case for the 49ers: They have won two really tough playoff games the last two weeks in Dallas and in Green Bay. They are battle tested and have confidence that they can win any game in any stadium. The Niners fans travel well and expect a big contingent to make their way to Sofi Stadium for this game.  They have the look of a 2007 Giants or the 2010 Packers. Teams that got hot at the right time, won playoff games on the road, and advanced to the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay right now, and the 49ers have defeated the Rams six games in a row-including a wild Week 18 win. Once again, there is just something about this Niners team that has a really good vibe to it.

A Case for the Rams: After losing to the 49ers so many times the last few years, you have to think that the Rams and Sean McVay are due to break through and knock them off. Can SF really beat the Rams three times this year? You have to love how the stars are playing for the Rams in these playoffs. Matt Stafford, Von Miller, and Odell Beckham Jr., have all done their part to help the Rams advance. It just feels like they are due to put this all together and beat the Niners at home to win the NFC Championship.

Prediction: LOS ANGELES (-3) over San Francisco: In a very hard fought game, the Rams do just enough to get past the 49ers and advance to their second Super Bowl in four years. 

Final Score: Rams-26 Niners 21

Broncos Name Nathaniel Hackett as Head Coach

 On Thursday, the Broncos named Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach. Hackett comes over from Green Bay where he spent the last two years as the offensive coordinator for the Packers. Hackett was considered one of the front-runners for the position since the Broncos started exploring new coaches to replace Vic Fangio. Here are my quick hit thoughts on the hire:

-I give any new coach a chance in Denver, so I am going to be optimistic about Hackett. There is a lot to like about his coaching ability and personality, and I'm willing to support him and hope he does very well in Denver.

-I thought Dan Quinn was going to get the job. He was considered the front-runner for the job, and I am surprised he didn't get it. I was fine with Quinn getting it, but I am also fine with Hackett getting the job.

-I am very curious to see who Hackett adds to his staff. That will be very important. As a first time head coach, I do hope that he adds some experienced coaches to help him navigate his first run as the head man.

-The biggest thing that is going to make Nathaniel Hackett successful in Denver is who he finds to be his next quarterback. If they find the "guy" at QB, then they will win games and Hackett will be a great hire. If they continue to struggle to find that QB, then Hackett will be gone in a few years. It is that simple.

-Now that Hackett is the new Broncos coach, expect the Aaron Rodgers to Denver rumors to be loud all offseason. This will be the big storyline for the Broncos and the entire NFL.

Divisional Playoff Reaction

 AFC Divisional Playoff Game

Cincinnati-19 Tennessee-16

1) Ryan Tannehill threw an interception on the first play of the game, and it was a foreshadowing of things to come. He ended up throwing three interceptions on the day and the last one was the killer and gave Cincy a chance to win at the end.

2) The Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times and still lost the game. That is going to sting the Titans all offseason.

3) Why did Mike Vrabel go for two after a Cincy penalty with the score 6-6 in the second quarter? Just kick the extra point and go up 7-6. Of course, the Titans didn't get it and it was 6-6 tie.

4) The Bengals were up 16-9 in the third quarter, and Tennessee picked off Joe Burrow for an apparent interception. It looked like the ball hit the ground and it was incomplete, but somehow the call stood and the Titans tied it up on a Tannehill TD pass to make it 16-16. At that point, I thought the Titans were winning this game.

5) After getting stopped on a 4th and 1 midway through the 4th quarter, but then getting a sack on Burrow, the Titans had the ball late in the game, but Tannehill threw a ball into coverage and it was tipped and intercepted. Burrow hit Jamar Chase on a corner route and rookie kicker Evan McPherson nailed the game-winning field goal as time expired.

6) The Titans have to be really disappointed in the way they lost. Ryan Tannehill and Mike Vrabel did not have their best day, and it cost the Titans. It will be a tough offseason for Tennessee.

7) The Bengals miraculous run continues as they advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1988. They were fortunate to win, but they got it done, and it is remarkable what they have done this season. 

NFC Divisional Playoff Game

San Francisco-13 Green Bay-10

1) The Packers special teams really killed them in this game. A blocked field goal at the end of the half kept the score 7-0. Then, Green Bay is up 10-3 in the 4th quarter, and a blocked punt touchdown by the Niners tied it at 10 and turned the whole game. You could feel the air come out of the crowd at Lambeau Field after that play.

2) The Packers went down the field on the first drive and scored to make it 7-0 but they didn't score another touchdown the rest of the game and only produced 10 points. That has to be in the conversation when you talk about this game.

3) Aaron Rodgers deserves the MVP award, but he wasn't good enough again in the postseason for the Packers. That's the bottom line. He didn't do enough to get it done-even at home.

4) The Packers were up 7-3 in the 4th quarter, and they were inside the 10 of SF. A touchdown there to make it 14-3 would have sealed the game in my opinion. But, the Niners defense came up big and forced the field goal and it gave them a chance to tie the game-which they did. The Niners defense deserves a lot of credit for how they stopped the Packers offense all night. 

5) Give Jimmy Garrapolo credit. He made a couple of big throws down the stretch to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel had some big runs to keep the chains moving and set up the game-winning field goal. Great job by HC Kyle Shanahan, and this was a classic win for the Niners. They head back to the NFC Title Game for the second time in three years.

6) Who knows if this was Aaron Rodgers' last game in Green Bay. It feels like they are headed for a divorce. Rodgers is amazing, but this is just another bitter playoff loss he has suffered the last few years with the Packers. 

NFC Divisional Playoff Game

Los Angeles Rams-30 Tampa Bay-27

1) This game was all Rams in the beginning. They built a 20-3 halftime lead and they were up 27-3 in the third quarter and completely dominating. They literally almost gave the game away. A fumble, a bad snap to Matt Stafford led to a fumble, a missed field goal, and another Akers fumble in the 4th quarter gave the Bucs life and a chance at an all-time comeback. 

2) Give Stafford a lot of credit. With the game tied at 27, he hits Cooper Kupp on the long bomb down the middle to set up the game-winning field goal with no time left. What a big-time play for a guy who is getting his playoff moment.

3) Tom Brady and the Bucs looked like they were sleepwalking through the first three quarters, but then they turned it on in the 4th quarter and almost pulled it out. Brady's throw to Mike Evans to make it 27-20 late in the 4th quarter was great, and the fact that they tied at 27 was remarkable. They just couldn't finish off the comeback.

4) The Rams advanced and were the better team for most of the game on Sunday. Now, they get to host the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers. This is why they traded for Stafford and Von Miller and signed OBJ. So far it has paid off, but they have to win this week at home to really validate.

5) Brady was non-committal about coming back for next year, and he will take time to figure out what he wants to do. I can see it going either way with him. In any event, his run with the Bucs has been a success, and his team somehow found a way to get back into that game yesterday. It was a crazy game and you can't fault Brady if he wants to retire-even after that loss to the Rams. 

AFC Divisional Playoff Game

Kansas City-42 Buffalo-36 (OT)

1) This was the most anticipated game of the weekend and it lived up to the hype. 25 points were scored in the last two minutes of the game. It was just an incredible display. It was like a boxing match with two fighters going toe to toe.

2) Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen showed that they are the two best young QBs in the league. Allen was amazing in defeat. He threw for four touchdowns, made countless plays with his feet, and converted multiple 4th downs. He brought his team back twice to take the lead late, only to lose it to Mahomes.

3) Mahomes continues to show why he is the face of the league and next superstar QB. He rallied his team twice at the end of the game and somehow got KC in field goal range to tie it at 36 on the last play of the game. Of course, he wins the coin toss and hits Travis Kelce with a touchdown pass to win it in overtime. Just amazing. Mahomes is heading to his fourth straight AFC Championship Game in four years as a starter, and he is now 8-2 in the playoffs. Just incredible. It is the era of Mahomes.

4) The Bills have to be sick to their stomachs all offseason. After Allen threw the TD pass to Gabriel Davis and take a 36-33 lead with only 13 seconds left, they allowed KC to hit two big throws and tie up the game. How they let Kelce just run straight down the field untouched is just unbelievable to me.

5) This was a classic between two great QBs who will probably rule the AFC for the next 10 years. It looks like Mahomes-Allen will become the new Brady-Manning in terms of rivalry and big games.

6) This is tough pill to swallow for the Bills. They were good enough to win a Super Bowl with this team. They had the game won in Arrowhead over the Chiefs and yet somehow they lost. I have a feeling they will be back very soon with this group, but this is such a bitter defeat. They will be thinking about this game all offseason.

7) The Chiefs pulled out a miraculous win and now they head to their fourth straight AFC Championship Game at home next week against the Bengals. It is hard to see them losing that game and look for them to get to their third straight Super Bowl. 

Divisional Playoff Picks

Last Week's Record: 4-1-1

Overall Playoff Record: 4-1-1

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AFC Divisional Playoff Game

(4) Cincinnati at (1) Tennessee

A Case for the Bengals: The Bengals have nothing to lose. They are playing with house money. They got their first playoff win since 1990 with their win over the Raiders last weekend. They can be loose all game and all the pressure is on the #1 seeded Titans in this game. I like the vibe of this Bengals team coming out of last week. Plus, these teams didn't play each other during the regular season, and I think that gives the Bengals an advantage. Also, maybe Joe Burrow really makes the LEAP in this game and puts him on the level on the other young franchise QBs in the NFL. 

A Case for the Titans: The Titans are battle tested the last few years in the playoffs and have consistently been one of the better teams in the AFC. They made the AFC Championship Game two years ago, lost a tough playoff game last year at home, and this year grabbed the #1 seed. I give the coaching edge to Mike Vrabel over Zac Taylor. It sounds like Derrick Henry is going to give it a go here since being out most of the year with a foot injury, so that would be a huge factor in this game for the Titans. Obviously, being at home with their fans will give them an edge and having the bye last week will be big for them. Also, will this moment be too much for a young Bengals team? It won't be for the Titans. 

Prediction: TENNESSEE (-3) over Cincinnati: This will be a close game for awhile. I think it goes back and forth, but ultimately the Titans will find a way to win the game and advance to the AFC Championship Game for the second time in three years.

Final Score: Titans-27 Bengals-20

NFC Divisional Playoff Game

(6) San Francisco at (3) Green Bay

A Case for the 49ers: They have something brewing right now. They were down 17-0 to the Rams in Week 18 with their playoff hopes at stake, and they came back and won the game. They went into Dallas and dominated the Cowboys for most of the game and pulled it out in the end, and now they head to Green Bay. I think they are battle tested because they were basically playing playoff games every week for like the last month of the season. They know they can win on the road. I like Kyle Shanahan in the coaching matchup over Matt LaFleur. I don't think they are going to go into Lambeau Field on a chilly Saturday night and feel intimidated. I think the 49ers truly believe they can hang with the Packers and win this game.

A Case for the Packers: They have benefit of getting the bye last week, so they are rested and ready to go. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league this year, and he is playing at a high level. The lost in the NFC Championship Game the last two seasons, and Rodgers has been so close the last few years that it seems like he is destined to get through to another Super Bowl. It will be interesting to see how the cold weather affects the Niners-especially with Jimmy G having a thumb injury on his throwing hand. Also, the Packers are getting healthier for this game on their defense, so the reinforcements are there. The Niners might be without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner due to injuries they suffered in the Dallas game last week, and they have a shorter week because they played Sunday afternoon in Dallas and head to Green Bay and play on Saturday. This will be San Fran's third straight road game including the Week 18 finale at the Rams, so that could play a factor.

Prediction: GREEN BAY (-6) over San Francisco: This game will be close throughout and I think San Francisco will keep it close and within a one possession game into the fourth quarter, but I think Rodgers puts the Packers on his back like he has all year and puts them into their third straight NFC Championship Game. 

Final Score: Packers-26 Niners-19

NFC Divisional Playoff Game

(3) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Tampa Bay

A Case for the Rams: The Rams are coming off a huge win at home over the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, and their star acquisitions all played well. Matt Stafford, Von Miller, and Odell Beckham Jr. all played well last week. You can see a scenario where Miller and Aaron Donald just make life miserable for Tom Brady. The Bucs got a little banged up on the offensive line last week in the win over Philly, so that could be a huge factor. Stafford got his first playoff win out of the way, and I think that could give him some huge confidence heading into this game. The Rams buried the Bucs earlier in the season, so they have that to use as motivation. Sean McVay will have them ready to go and with all the stars that they have on their team, they are about as dangerous as anyone to knock off Brady and the Bucs. 

A Case for the Buccaneers: The bottom line is that you really can never bet against Tom Brady in a big playoff game. Somehow, he will find a way to get it done. I think Tampa Bay will use the motivation of losing to the Rams earlier in the year and keep that fresh in their minds when they make adjustments for this rematch. The Bucs have had one goal this year and that was to get back to the Super Bowl and win it again, and I think that mindset will give them an edge on Sunday. They can match all the star players for the Rams with their own, and they looked dominant last week in their blowout win over the Eagles. It is hard to bet against this group-which has won all five playoff games since Brady arrived in Tampa. Throw in the fact that they are home, and you have to like their chances. 

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams (+3) over TAMPA BAY: This is a hard game to predict, but I think at least one road team will win this weekend, and I think that will be the Rams. I expect a really close game, but look for the Rams to get back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2018.

Final Score: Rams-28 Buccaneers-25

AFC Divisional Playoff Game

(3) Buffalo at (2) Kansas City

A Case for the Bills: They have one of the three best QBs in the NFL with Josh Allen, and he is playing at such a high level that he can single-handedly win any game in any environment. He is that good. They could be down late in the game, and he could just take the game over. They already beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium back in October, so they know they can win there. They seem to be a team that is built to stop this KC offense. I don't think they will be intimidated, and this team just looks and feels different after they had that loss to the Bucs in Tampa. They haven't lost since, and I think that this could be their time in the AFC, and this could be one of those passing of the torch games.

A Case for the Chiefs: At one point they were 3-4 and people were worried if they were going to make the playoffs. They finished 12-5 and absolutely destroyed the Steelers last week at home in the Wild Card round. We know how dominant their offense can be when they get going-especially at home. As good as Josh Allen is, Pat Mahomes is better. They can use the loss at home to Buffalo in October as motivation. As long as they don't turn the ball over and try to get too cute on offense, no one is beating them-especially in Arrowhead. Can they really lose twice to Buffalo at home in the same year? That seems unlikely. 

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (-2) over Buffalo: The Bills will give the Chiefs everything they can and this will be a very competitive game. I think this is definitely the best game of the weekend, and the one that is "Can't miss," but I just don't see the Chiefs losing here at home. KC advances to their fourth straight AFC Championship Game with Mahomes out-dueling Allen. 

Final Score: Chiefs-31 Bills-24

Wild Card Weekend Reaction

 AFC Wild Card Game

Cincinnati-26 Las Vegas-19

1) This game played out exactly the way I thought it would. I thought Cincy would win, but I expected it to be a close game. 

2) The game will be remembered for a controversial inadvertent whistle on a Bengals touchdown late in the second quarter. Joe Burrow was going out of bounds but threw a pass into the endzone and Tyler Boyd caught it for a 10 yard TD, but a referee blew the whistle while the ball was in the air. It looked like the play was being ruled dead, but it wasn't. The officials called it a touchdown and it stood to make the score 20-6 Cincy. After the game, the NFL put out a statement that the play should have not counted and they should have run the play over. It was too little too late. Once again, the NFL officials have another black eye on a big game.

3) The game came down to the last drive and a Derek Carr pass was intercepted at the goal line for Cincy to preserve the win. Thats all you could ask for in a NFL playoff game not involving your team.

3) Give credit to the Bengals for winning their first game since the 1990 season. It has been a long time for the Bengals and their fans. Joe Burrow is the real deal and has turned this franchise around in one season. 

AFC Wild Card Game

Buffalo-47 New England-17

1) This was an ass-kicking from the first drive to the end. The Bills scored first to take a 7-0 lead on a throw from Josh Allen to Dawson Knox. It looked like Allen was trying to throw the ball out of the end zone, but somehow Knox caught it. It was a foreshadowing for the rest of the night for the Pats. 

2) The Pats first drive of the game ended when Mac Jones was intercepted by Micah Hyde in the end zone. It was an amazing play by Hyde to pick it off and completely took the air out of the Pats. Allen hit Knox again on the next Bills drive for a TD and it was 14-0 and the game was over.

3) Allen was amazing all night. He finished 21-25 for 308 yards and 5 TDs. The Bills scored a touchdown on their first seven possessions. The only drive they didn't score a TD was when they knelt down at the end of the game. Just a perfect performance by Allen and the Bills offense.

4) It was nice to see the Patriots get absolutely killed in a playoff game. It was nice to see Bill Belichick and the rest of his staff have no answers for an opponent. When they were down 27-3 at halftime, this wasn't going to be like Super Bowl LI and there would be no comeback against the Falcons down 28-3. The Bills kicked their ass up and down the field and in every phase. Good for Buffalo.

NFC Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay-31 Philadelphia-15

1) This game was a joke. The Bucs jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter, lead 17-0 at halftime, and lead 31-0 after three quarters. It was a blowout from the get go.

2) At one point in the third quarter, Brady hit Rob Gronkowski for a short TD pass and he was so wide open that it was embarrassing. 

3) This game exposed Jalen Hurts. He is not a franchise QB for the Eagles, and I think they will realize that after this game. Give the Eagles credit for making the playoffs but they didn't beat a winning team all year long, and they looked like they didn't belong in the playoffs with the Bucs.

4) The impact of Tom Brady on the Bucs franchise has been immeasurable. He is now 5-0 in playoff games in two years, and this was a franchise that had not won a playoff game since 2002 before he arrived last year.

NFC Wild Card Game

San Francisco-23 Dallas-17

1) This was the best game of the weekend by far. Two historic franchises that were renewing a classic rivalry in the late afternoon window of Wild Card Weekend. It doesn't get better than that.

2) The Niners came out and completely dominated the beginning of the game. They scored a TD on their first drive, and they were up 13-0 midway through the first half and took a 16-7 lead into halftime. It just felt like the Niners were going to be in this game to the end and probably win the game.

3) Dak Prescott got intercepted at the Dallas 26 with 6 minutes left in the third quarter, and the next play Deebo Samuel rushed for a 26 yard touchdown run to make it 23-7 Niners. At that point, I really thought the game was over.

4) The Cowboys made a comeback with an improbable fake punt on a 4th and 5 from their own 48. They got a field goal on that drive to make it 23-10. Jimmy Garoppolo throws a bad interception on the next drive, and Dallas converts that into a touchdown to make it 23-17 Niners. A last gasp throw by Prescott with only 1:49 left fell incomplete. After the Niners failed to put the game away on a 4th and inches QB sneak because of a false start, the Cowboys had one last drive. Prescott ran a QB draw to the Niners 24, but Dallas had no timeouts and they couldn't get the snap off before time ran out and that was the game. It was a furious final quarter of the game in which it felt like both teams were trying to give the game away.

5) This is another disappointing playoff loss for the Cowboys. Another questionable job coaching from Mike McCarthy. They had some questionable decisions and play calls and even the final play of the game was not executed well at all. There has to be a sense of pessimism with McCarthy going forward with this team.

6) The Niners were gutty and gritty and the better team on Sunday. It got a little hectic late in the fourth quarter, but the Niners were able to get it done and are moving on to Green Bay.

AFC Wild Card Game

Kansas City-49 Pittsburgh-21

1) The Steelers kept it close for a quarter and a half, but they just couldn't hold on too much longer. They got the 7-0 lead on the turnover and T.J. Watt fumble return touchdown.

2) The Chiefs tied it up at 7 with 5:45 minutes to go in first half, and then proceeded to score two more touchdowns to make it 21-7 at the half. The kill shot was the 48 yard TD pass to Travis Kelce with only 13 seconds left in the half.

3) Five minutes into the 3rd quarter and it was 35-7 Chiefs and the game was over. It is amazing how the fortunes of the Chiefs have changed in the Pat Mahomes era. Mahomes is now 7-2 in the playoffs and they host another playoff game on in the Divisional Round next week against the Bills.

4) The Steelers were fortunate to make it to the playoffs, but they were no match for the Chiefs. This was the last game of Ben Roethlisberger's career. I think it is safe to say that Big Ben is headed to Canton and the Pro Football Hall of Fame at some point.

NFC Wild Card Game

Los Angeles Rams-34 Arizona-11

1) The first Monday Night Football playoff game was a one-sided blowout. The Rams jumped out to a 14-0 lead and then Kyler Murray threw an awful interception out of his own end zone that was picked off at the 3 yard line by David Long, who returned it for a touchdown and gave the Rams a 21-0 lead. At that point, the game was over.

2) Odell Beckham had a big game, Von Miller had a good game, and Matt Stafford got his first ever playoff win. All the big moves that the Rams had made this past year had paid off.

3) The Cardinals have to be very disappointed with the way they played. Kyler Murray was awful and the team no-showed in their first playoff game since 2015. They were 10-2 at one point and were looking at the 1 seed in the NFC.

4) The Rams went all in the past few years to try and make a run at a Super Bowl and a Lombardi Trophy. It paid off so far with the big win over the Cards in the Wild Card round. Now, they head to Tampa to take on Brady and the Bucs. We'll see if their "all-in" run can continue. 

Wild Card Weekend Picks!

The 2021 NFL Playoffs kick off with Wild Card Weekend this week and this year there is a new wrinkle: A Monday Night Football Wild Card Game. That will be the last game of the weekend. There will be five very interesting matchups that will precede it. I think this year's playoffs are wide open. There is a very good chance that one or two teams playing this weekend will represent each conference in the Super Bowl. It all gets going this weekend.....

Last Week's Record: 4-11-1

Final 2021 Regular Season Overall Record: : 136-124-10

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

AFC Wild Card Game

(5) Las Vegas at (4) Cincinnati 

A Case for the Raiders: The Raiders have had a remarkable season. They lost head coach Jon Gruden in October due to that email scandal. WR Henry Ruggs gets arrested for killing a person in a DUI car accident. Then, they get destroyed by Kansas City and fell to 6-7, and it looked like their season was over. But, they won that weird game in Cleveland and won their last three games to finish 10-7 and clinch a berth. They have been in a lot of close games and won a majority. You have to like what Derek Carr has done this year. Their entire playoff run was so improbable, why not continue it in the playoffs?

A Case for the Bengals: You have to love what you have seen out of Joe Burrow, Ja'mar Chase and that offense this year. They are explosive and can put up points on anyone. Zac Taylor has done a nice job with this group this year, and they are a legitimate playoff team. They aren't a fluke. The Bengals are also due for a playoff win. They haven't won a playoff game since 1990, and the franchise lost a lot of tough playoff games with Marvin Lewis as their head coach. They are due to break through at some point. Plus, how much do the Raiders have left in the tank after beating the Chargers in overtime on Sunday night in Vegas, and then having to fly to Cincy for a playoff game on Saturday?

Prediction: Las Vegas (+7) over CINCINNATI: The Bengals will win their first playoff game since 1990, but the Raiders will keep it close throughout.

Final Score: Bengals-26 Raiders-23

AFC Wild Card Game

(6) New England at (3) Buffalo

A Case for the Patriots: You have Bill Belichick on your sideline. That should give any Patriots team a chance. They also have a very playoff-experienced staff that will get them ready for this game. They will play up the fact that they are the underdog, and they can use what they learned from the loss to Buffalo a few weeks ago and make the proper adjustments. You have to like the Pats defense to come up with a big effort. They have nothing to lose here. They have exceeded expectations just by making the playoffs this year, so they are playing with house money.

A Case for the Bills: I always felt that the Bills were just trying to get through the regular season and just get back to the playoffs and make their run. They got to the AFC Championship Game last year, and now they have another legitimate shot to get there again. They have Josh Allen and he can win any game on his own. He can take this game over. I also think the Bills are just a better team than the Pats. They proved it in New England a few weeks ago. I would be really surprised to see New England to come into Buffalo and win again.

Prediction: BUFFALO (-4) over New England: This should be a really good game on Saturday night in frigid Buffalo. I think it will be a back and forth game, but ultimately the Bills will win and advance to the Divisional Round for the second straight year.

Final Score: Bills-27 Pats-20

NFC Wild Card Game

(7) Philadelphia at (2) Tampa Bay

A Case for the Eagles: They did play the Bucs pretty well early in the season. They have no pressure. They made the playoffs this year when no one (including me) thought they would be any good this year. They can play up the "No one believes in us" card, and they are playing with house money. They can play fast and loose. All the pressure is on the Bucs.

A Case for the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay is on a one-track mission to get back to the Super Bowl with Tom Brady. This team is built to win the Super Bowl, and they are dangerous-especially since they won the whole thing last year. I think they were just worried about getting into the playoffs this year, and the regular season was just the appetizer. The playoffs are the main course for the Bucs. I could see them really turning up their play this postseason-even with some injury concerns. It is hard to imagine Tom Brady getting upset at home to the Eagles in this playoff matchup. 

Prediction: TAMPA BAY (-8) over Philadelphia: The Bucs won't mess around and they will take care of business in this game. They take down the Eagles, win their fifth straight playoff game with Tom Brady, and advance to the Divisional Round next week. 

Final Score: Buccaneers-30 Eagles-20

NFC Wild Card Game

(6) San Francisco at (3) Dallas

A Case for the 49ers: At 10-7, they might be the most dangerous Wild Card team in the playoffs. They have been to a Super Bowl recently. Kyle Shanahan is a good coach, who can come up with a gameplan to beat anyone in any game. I totally favor Shanahan over Mike McCarthy in this matchup. I think they are battle-tested this season, and they won a lot of tough games down the stretch. I like the feeling of this team after coming back and beating the Rams in LA in Week 18 after they were down 17-0. I could see them going on a deep run here in these playoffs.

A Case for the Cowboys: The Cowboys have been a very solid team on both sides of the ball this year. I like the explosiveness of their offense. I could see Dak Prescott getting hot and playing really well. They have won a playoff game in the past with this group. You have to like how the defense played this year. The home crowd will be fired up, and that should help them. The Cowboys are in a group of teams that are legitimate contenders in the NFC.

Prediction: San Francisco (+3) over DALLAS: This is a great matchup. This was such a rivalry in the 80s and 90s. Historic players and coaches with historic franchises. This is the best game of the weekend. I think the 49ers will do just enough to pull off the slight upset in Big D on Sunday.

Final Score: 49ers-27 Cowboys-24

AFC Wild Card Game

(7) Pittsburgh at (2) Kansas City

A Case for the Steelers: They are this weekend's "No one believes in us" team. NO ONE is giving them a shot in this game. They got blown out by the Chiefs a few weeks ago in Arrowhead, and everyone is betting against them. They can use that as motivation. Also, they barely got into the playoffs and sometimes when that happens, teams can take advantage of the moment. They will play fast and loose. Mike Tomlin will have them ready, and I don't see them getting embarrassed like they did earlier in the year. Plus, throw in the Big Ben possible retirement tour, and you could have a feisty underdog in the Steelers.

A Case for the Chiefs: Their entire season has been about getting back to the Super Bowl. Even after they started 3-4, they still finished 12-5. The Arrowhead crowd will be rocking for this Sunday night playoff game. The Chiefs are the better team and they are on a mission. It is very tough to stop that offense in that stadium, and their defense has played really well down the stretch. The Chiefs are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and their run starts Sunday night.

Prediction: Pittsburgh (+13) over KANSAS CITY: I think the Chiefs will ultimately win the game and advance to the Divisional Round for the fourth straight year, but I think the Steelers will keep it close and make KC sweat a for bit.

Final Score: Chiefs-27 Steelers-17

NFC Wild Card Game

(5) Arizona at (4) Los Angeles Rams

A Case for the Cardinals: Arizona is dangerous team. Remember they were the 1 seed for awhile in the NFC. This could be a game that Kyler Murray takes over and has his first playoff moment. There have been times that the Arizona defense has been really good, and you wonder if they will be able to take advantage of some of the mistakes that the Rams and Matt Stafford might make. Stafford has not won a playoff game as a QB in his career. They already won in LA earlier in the year, and they are division rivals with the Rams so there is some familiarity with these two. The Cardinals are making their first playoff appearance since 2015, so there is no pressure on them. All of that pressure is on the Rams.

A Case for the Rams: This is what they built their team for. They are built to go win a Super Bowl. The Matt Stafford trade, the trade for Von Miller, and the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. were all designed to push this team over the top. They have the home game, and I don't think Cardinals fans will travel like the 49ers fans traveled last week. I think Sean McVay will have the focused and ready to go,  and he gives them a coaching edge over Arizona' Kliff Kingsbury. I think they are a better overall team than the Cardinals.

Prediction: RAMS (-4) over Arizona: This will be a back and forth game, but the Rams will win and advance to the Divisional Round for the second straight year. 

Final Score: Rams-28 Cardinals-23

Vic Fangio is Out as Denver Head Coach

 On Sunday morning, the Broncos parted ways with Vic Fangio as head coach. Fangio lasted three years in Denver and finished with a 19-30 record. It wasn't a surprise that he was let go and the feeling around Denver was that it was going to happen and GM George Paton was going to move on. The following are the important facts and reasons why Fangio didn't work out in Denver or was given another year:

1) Not only did he finish 19-30 overall as a head coach, Fangio finished 1-11 against the Raiders and Chiefs combined. His divisional record was 5-13 overall in his three years. Not good at all.

2) He only won one game with the Broncos in his three years when they were trailing at halftime (2020 vs the Chargers). Only ONE.

3) He put together really good defensive units, but his defenses never consistently got a big stop in big spot throughout his time in Denver.

4) His three main QBs in Denver were Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater. The lack of production at QB ultimately did him in.

5) He fired Rich Scanagarello after one year as OC in 2019 and picked Pat Shurmur to replace him. Shurmer was not good at all in 2020 and even worse in 2021. The offense just regressed every year under Fangio.

6) Fangio struggled with game-management, clock-management, and challenges at times, and he certainly wasn't great in that area. I don't think he was as bad at it as some people in Denver feel that he was, but he definitely wasn't good in that regard. He is great defensive coordinator and great defensive mind. His players didn't quit on him, but ultimately it didn't work out, and it was understandable that the Broncos decided to move on. 

Broncos Lose to Chiefs in Season Finale, Finish 7-10

 The Broncos finished the season on Saturday afternoon with a home loss to the Chiefs 28-24 to finish the 2021 season with a disappointing 7-10 record. The Broncos played tough and had a chance, but ultimately it was not enough. Here are my thoughts on the game.....

1) Give the Broncos credit: They played hard and inspired. They didn't lay down and get rolled over by the Chiefs, who were playing all their starters for seeding in the AFC. The Broncos even dealt with a number of key injuries and they still played the Chiefs tough and had a shot to win it in the end.

2) The Broncos had a 21-17 lead going into the 4th quarter but couldn't pull the game out. Drew Lock had two rushing touchdowns and made some clutch throws in the 4th quarter, and Melvin Gordon added a big TD run to give Denver a chance. 

3) This game will be remembered as the "Melvin Gordon Fumble" game. With the Broncos up 21-20 midway through the 4th quarter, they were driving inside the 10 yard line. Gordon got hit right as he got the carry, fumbled, and Chiefs defender Nick Bolton picked it up and raced 86 yards to give the Chiefs the lead 28-20. It was a devastating play and pretty much summed up the Broncos second half of their season.

4) The Broncos did drive down on the next drive and faced a 4th and 9 on the Chiefs 13 yard line with just over 4 minutes to go in the game, and Vic Fangio elected to kick the field goal to make it 28-24 instead of trying to go for it and tie it up. The Broncos never got the ball back as Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs got the first downs they needed and ran out the clock. I thought Fangio should have went for it and not kick the FG, but he elected to kick and try to stop Mahomes-which you knew was not going to happen.

5) Three Broncos fumbles the second half of their season ultimately decided their fate in 2021. The Gordon fumble in the KC game, the Gordon fumble in the Philly game, and the Lock fumble in the Cincy game all decided the outcomes and were huge mistakes in critical moments. 

6) The Broncos season ended in disappointment. After starting 3-0, they lost 10 of their next 14 games and finished out of the playoffs for a 6th straight year and a fifth straight losing season. I'll have a whole column on the offseason for the Broncos later this week, but the Broncos were good enough to have won 9-10 games this year, but ultimately it did not go that way. 

Broncos-Chiefs Finale and Week 18 Picks

The Broncos enter Week 18, the final week of the season, at 7-9 and staring at another losing season and another season out of the playoffs. They are also staring at double-digit losses for the fourth time in five seasons.  To add to the futility,  a loss on Saturday to the Chiefs will make it 13 straight losses to KC. They haven't beaten the Chiefs in Denver since 2014. The Broncos are going to be without three starters in their secondary. Pat Surtain, Ronald Darby, and Kareem Jackson will all be out with injuries. That leaves the Broncos with a depleted secondary to try to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. KC needs to win the game because they can still get the #1 seed if Tennessee loses on Sunday. The NFL flexed two games to Saturday for Week 18 this year. The Broncos are playing out the string, Vic Fangio and his staff will probably be fired, and most of their players will probably be looking ahead to their vacations and off season destinations. This one will be over very quickly. The Chiefs will win easily, clinch the #2 seed in the AFC and host the Chargers in the Wild Card round.

Prediction: Kansas City (-10) over DENVER

Final Score: Chiefs-37 Broncos-20

Now, onto the picks for Week 18.....

Last Week's Record: 10-6-0

Overall Record: : 132-113-9

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

PHILADELPHIA (+5) over Dallas: The Cowboys are pretty much locked into the #4 seed in the NFC regardless of the result, so I think Philly will win this game in which both teams might rest a lot of starters. The Eagles will finish 10-7 and the 6 seed in the NFC and head to Tampa Bay. The Cowboys will host Arizona.

CLEVELAND (+3) over Cincinnati: The Bengals are going to rest Joe Burrow and a bunch of starters, so I will give the Browns the win. Cincy finishes as the #4 seed in the AFC and host New England in the Wild Card round. The Browns will finish 8-9 and out of the playoffs.  

DETROIT (+3) over Green Bay: Green Bay has locked up the #1 seed in the NFC and has nothing to play for. Detroit wants to finish off the season with a win. 

MINNESOTA (-2) over Chicago: Both teams are out of the playoff picture. Minnesota wins to finish 8-9 and the Bears will finish 6-11.

Washington (-6) over GIANTS: Washington wins to finish 7-10 and the Giants will finish 4-13.

Indianapolis (-14) over JACKSONVILLE: The Colts will win and clinch a playoff berth in the process. They will be the 6 seed and head to Buffalo in Round 1. Jacksonville will finish 2-15.

BALTIMORE (-4) over Pittsburgh: Both teams will not make the playoffs. Baltimore wins to finish 9-8 and Pittsburgh will finish 8-8-1.

Tennessee (-10) over HOUSTON: Tennessee will win, finish 12-5, and clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. They will have a bye next week. Houston will finish 4-13.

ATLANTA (+4) over New Orleans: New Orleans can make the playoffs with a win over Atlanta and a San Francisco loss to the Rams. I think the Falcons beat the Saints and knock the Saints out of the playoff race. The Saints finish 8-9 and the Falcons finish 8-9 

Jets (+17) over BUFFALO: The Bills will win the game, finish 11-6, and clinch the AFC East. They will be the #3 seed and host the Colts in the Wild Card round. The Jets will finish 4-13.

New England (-6) over MIAMI: New England wins and will be the #5 seed and head to Cincy for Wild Card weekend. Miami finishes 8-9.

Carolina (+7) over TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay wins and finishes 13-4. They clinch the # 3 seed and host Philly in Round 1. Carolina finishes 5-12. 

RAMS (-4) over San Francisco: The Rams will beat SF and finish 13-4. They will be the #2 seed in the NFC and host San Francisco once again next week. The Niners will clinch the playoffs and the #7 seed with a 9-8 record because New Orleans lost to Atlanta. 

ARIZONA (-6) over Seattle: Arizona beats Seattle and finishes 12-5 and they are the #5 seed in the NFC and travel to Dallas in Round 1. Seattle will finish 6-11. 

Chargers (-3) over LAS VEGAS: The Chargers beat the Raiders and clinch the #7 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Broncos Get Ripped by Chargers, Fall to 7-9

 The Broncos got whipped by the Chargers in Los Angeles on Sunday 34-13 and fall to 7-9 in the process. The Broncos entered the game with 10 starters out with Covid, and they were severely undermanned. Too many mistakes once again doomed them, and the loss officially eliminates them from playoff contention, and ensures a fifth straight losing season, no matter what happens in Week 18 against KC. Here are my thoughts on the game....

1) The Broncos defense held up as much as it could but without key members due to Covid, they could only do so much against Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense. It was just a matter of time before the Chargers broke it open and they did in the 3rd quarter.

2) The key sequence was when the Broncos were down 10-0 in the second quarter and drove for a 1st and goal inside the Chargers five yard line. They were stopped on 4th and goal on a "Philly Special" type of play when Drew Lock was tackled at the one yard line. They forced a punt and then Diontae Spencer fumbled the punt and the Chargers scored to make it 17-0. That was the game right there.

3) Denver's offense still struggled on 3rd down conversions. Drew Lock made some nice throws, but they were just not good enough on 3rd down and couldn't keep up with the Chargers.

4) Another kick return TD was given up by the Broncos to make it 27-6 in the 3rd quarter. Denver has given up the most kick/punt returns in the league since 2019. How Tom McMahon still has a job is amazing to me.

5) This offensive play calling is really bad. Pat Shurmur has not done a good job at all in his two years as offensive coordinator. It is so hard to watch each week.

6) Too many injuries and Covid issues put the Broncos in a tough spot and they were no match for the Chargers. Denver's loss ensures them another losing season for the fifth year in a row. It also ensures them a last place finish once again in the AFC West. 

7) The Broncos finish the season at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday afternoon as part of a new Week 18 flex game. The Chiefs are still playing for a higher seed so they will not be resting any starters and the Broncos will probably have their thoughts on the offseason, so this could get ugly pretty quick.