Week 3 Thursday Night Pick!

ATLANTA (-6) over Tampa Bay
My picks have been downright awful so far this year. I'm just not clicking on all cylinders. I'll take the  Falcons laying only a touchdown at home tonight. I usually favor the home team on Thursday night, and the Bucs have lost two games at home to backup quarterbacks to start the season. You know what that means? The Bucs will win this game outright.

Ray Rice, Roger Goodell and Week 2 Picks

Everyone in the free world has pretty much chimed in on Ray Rice and Roger Goodell, but since I am making my picks column I felt obligated to write about it before I move on to talking about real football. Here are my feelings/opinions about what I think about Rice and Goddell. As far as Rice goes, the Ravens obviously wanted to believe and trust him, and they surely wanted him to play this year, so they didn’t pursue the incident as much as they possibly could. The Ravens and their front office deserve to get blamed for that, and they haven’t gotten as much heat as the NFL office has. 

Now, onto to the Commissioner of the NFL. The one thing that stands out about Goodell is that he always seemed to me as a person who is not the smartest person in the world-especially if that person is supposed to be in charge of the most powerful sports league in North America. With that said, Goodell has made many impulsive and inconsistent decisions on certain matters as Commissioner during his tenure. He seems to make decisions and he treats the NFL fans and the public like we are some group of naïve children. He talked about player safety and concussions, but then he tries to stuff 18 games down our throats because fans “want it.” Also, he includes as full-slate of Thursday night games because the fans “want more of the product.” He also mishandled the investigation with the Patriots and Spygate, and he wrecked the Saints entire season by mishandling the Bountygate suspensions. He is never consistent with his suspensions and sanctions involving players. Now, Goodell completely screws up the process involving Ray Rice. I think that Goodell saw the tape and gave Ray Rice a two-game suspension, and he just isn’t smart enough to understand the severity of the case. If Goodell didn’t see the video in the elevator, then he just didn’t want to see it, hand down punishment to Rice, and hope this whole thing goes away. Either way, I’m not saying that Goodell needs to get fired as NFL commissioner, but I’m just not sure that he is smart or savvy enough to handle the responsibilities of running this league. Now, finally onto the picks for Week 2…

Last Week’s Record: 4-11-1

Overall Record: 4-11-1

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Detroit (+3) over CAROLINA: I’ll take the Lions this week on the road after an impressive win over the Giants on Monday night. The Panthers won on the road without Cam Newton. I’m going to buy the Lions being a threat in the NFC North and getting a big win on the road.

Miami (-1) over BUFFALO: The Dolphins were probably the most impressive team of Week 1 with their win over the Patriots. You have to think that they should be able to keep that momentum going into Buffalo this week. The Bills also shocked everyone by upsetting the Bears in Chicago in Week 1. This suddenly becomes a key Week 2 game in the AFC East. I’ll ride the Fish until they prove me wrong.

Jacksonville (+6) over WASHINGTON: You have to think the Redskins will get RG III and their offense going at home this week. The Jags were up 17-0 over the Eagles and they fell apart and lost 34-17. I think the Jags are a little more feisty than we thought they would be. I'm backing them getting six on the road. 

TENNESSEE (-3) over Dallas: This could be the easiest game of the week for me to pick. I love the Titans at home here. Tennessee buried the Chiefs in KC last week, and if they can stay healthy, then they could definitely be a playoff contender this year. The Cowboys come to town on the heels of a dreadful loss to the 49ers last week. Take the Titans laying the field goal.

NY GIANTS (+2) over Arizona: This is dangerous for me to take this putrid Giants offense against a solid defense like Arizona's, but I'm going to stick with the G-Men this week. Why? Because everyone is picking the Cards to win outright this week. I'll give the Giants a win somehow at home.

New England (-3) over MINNESOTA: There is no way the Patriots are going 0-2. Right?

CLEVELAND (+7) over New Orleans: There is no way that the Saints are going 0-2. Right? Look for this to be close, but the Saints will win the game.

Atlanta (+5) over CINCY: Tough spot for Atlanta on the road in Cincy. You have to be impressed by the Falcons and their come-from-behind win over the Saints last week. Cincy did a number on Baltimore for three quarters, then it pulled it out with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green heroics. Cincy will win the game, but the Falcons will keep this game really close.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over St. Louis: Both teams are garbage and this might be this week’s winner for “Least Interesting Game of the Week.” The Rams lost Chris Long for the next two months, and they might have to start Austin Davis at QB. That's right folks. Austin Davis is starting at QB in the NFL and Tim Tebow is doing SEC games on ESPN. Just think about that for a minute. 

SAN DIEGO (+7) over Seattle: I have loved the Chargers in this game all week long and here's why: The Seahawks have been the past week and a half basking in the glory of just how good they are after their dominating win over the Packers last Thursday night in the season opener. I think they will find a way to win this game on a late Russell Wilson drive, but this will be a close game throughout. 

OAKLAND (+3) over Houston: Derek Carr gets revenge on his older brother’s former team in the “Carr Bowl.” Jadeveon Clowney is out for Houston with a knee injury, so that kind of takes the fun out of this one. Take the Raiders at home to get to 1-1.

GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Jets: This is a tough game to predict. The Packers will win, but I could see the Jets keeping it closer than people think. I’ll trust the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to put this game away in the 4^th quarter.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Chicago: Tough game to call. You would think that a lot of people would be bailing on the Bears after last week’s horrible loss to the Bills at home. It would be surprising to see them start 0-2. On the other hand, this is a tough spot for them. Road game, Sunday Night Football, opening of a new stadium, and the 49ers to boot. Everyone is back on the 49ers bandwagon after mostly everyone jumped off during preseason. I would take the Bears here, but it sounds like both Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall are game-time decisions. I can't risk it based on that information. 

INDY (-2) over Philly: Good matchup for Monday Night Football. I can’t see the Colts losing this game at home. It will be a good game and go back and forth, but look for Andrew Luck and the Colts to find a way to win this game late.

Kansas City (+13) over DENVER: I think the Broncos are getting a huge advantage by getting an already wounded KC team coming to Denver in Week 2. After last week’s victory over the Colts, the Broncos won’t have to worry about Alex Smith pulling an Andrew Luck impersonation. The Broncos defense should be able to contain the Chiefs handily in this game. I think this line is too high, and the Broncos should win, but you just can’t lay that many points-especially since Denver has trouble closing out these games when they get a big lead.

Final Score: Broncos:27 Chiefs:21

Thursday Night Pick

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Pittsburgh: This is such a weird game to pick because of the Ray Rice release and controversy. Sometimes, a team can rally around each other while dealing with adversity. I'm sure John Harbaugh is going to try and use this situation and motivate his team to become a closer unit heading into this rivalry game with the Steelers. You have to wonder if the Rice situation will affect the Ravens like the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin situation ambushed Miami's season last year. I just don't know how the Ravens are going to react to this, but I'll take them this week and see where it goes from here.

Broncos Hold Off Late Colts Rally and Win Opener

All that matters is the win, and the Broncos got their first win of the season over the feisty Colts on Sunday night 31-24 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos led this game 24-0 at one point in the 2^nd quarter, and they led 31-10 midway through the 4^th quarter. Andrew Luck was able to rally the Colts late, and the Broncos defense was forced to make a stop to preserve the victory. Bradley Roby knocked down a 4^th down pass intended for Reggie Wayne to secure the win. It was a tale of two halves for the Broncos, but despite the late rally, Denver holds on, gets the win over a quality opponent, and is 1-0 heading into next week. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game…

1)    Peyton Manning and the offense were in midseason form in the first half. Manning finished 22-36 for 269 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The first four drives of the game looked like last year. The Broncos scored a field goal and three touchdowns to start the half and were up 24-0 and cruising. They were certainly emphasizing the running game early too. There were a lot of two and three tight end sets to start with some counter runs to Montee Ball. I like this approach, but after a while it wasn’t working. The Broncos should just be who they are: Shotgun spread and let Manning find the mismatches on the defense. His pass to Julius Thomas on 3^rd and 10 on a fade route on the second possession was about as perfect as you could throw that kind of ball. Just a thing of beauty.

2)    Defensively, I thought the Broncos played really solid at times. DeMarcus Ware made his presence known with 1.5 sacks and constant pressure all night. Aqib Talib played really well at cornerback, and Nate Irving played really well in the middle. The Broncos defense forced three punts and got an interception by Rahim Moore on the first four drives to help Denver take the 24-0 lead.

3)    Andrew Luck’s touchdown run to cut the game to 24-7 late in the 2^nd quarter swung the momentum. It seemed that the Broncos offense couldn’t get out of their own way. They have bad field position, drops, and penalties to kill drives. The defense started to look tired and gassed having to deal with Luck during the second half. Give the Broncos defense credit for that huge goal line stand early in the 3^rd quarter. At 24-7, to stop the Colts inside the five was a big moment in the game.

4)    The Broncos just couldn’t get this game over with. At 24-10 with 13 minutes left in the game, Denver took over at the Indy 48. This drive was classic Broncos as they mixed in runs and a quick screen to Demaryius Thomas to set up a short Ball touchdown run to give them a 31-10 lead.

5)    The Broncos really suck at closing games out. They had trouble finishing off the Chargers and Pats in the playoffs, and they had trouble once again last night. At 31-10, this is where the game got crazy. After giving up a touchdown pass from Luck to Dwayne Allen, the Broncos screwed up the onside kick and gave the ball back to Indy up 31-17 with just over seven minutes to go in the game. After a big interception by Rahim Moore, the Broncos offense stalled once again, and Luck got the ball back and drove Indy again to a late score on pass to Hakeem Nicks. Now, at 31-24 the game became way too close. Denver’s offense went 3 and out, and Manning missed two open receivers for first downs on that series. Indy got the ball back, but give credit to the defense as Bradley Roby swatted away a 4^th down pass in Denver territory. The Broncos need to get better at closing these games out. At 31-10, this thing should have been over. They never should have had to make a stop on defense to hold on. They have to shut the door on these teams when they can. Also, there is no way in hell I want to see Luck again in the playoffs. No thanks on that one.

6)    Overall, you take the good and the bad with the first game of a new season. Manning and the offense looked brilliant at times and put up 31 points. Julius Thomas scored 3 touchdowns and looked like a difference maker once again. Emmanuel Sanders had over 77 yards receiving and looked like a big-time playmaker that we need. The defense had 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, a goal line stand, and a 4^th down stop to end the game. Obviously, the Broncos know there is room for improvement and they know they have to close out games better. As a fan, you are happy with the win, relieved to be 1-0, and satisfied knowing the Broncos beat a good team with a great, young quarterback at home to start the year.

7)    Next week, Denver hosts Kansas City at 4:25pm EST. The Chiefs come in at 0-1 after a 26-10 loss at home to the Titans. The Chargers and Raiders also lost in Week 1, so this is a great chance for the Broncos to take an early lead out of the gates in the AFC West.

Broncos-Colts Preview and Storylines for the 2014 Season

"What happened?" That was the question I heard from family and friends all winter, spring, and summer about the Broncos Super Bowl debacle against Seattle. I usually responded with the following answer: "I have no idea." Really, the Super Bowl loss was a major blemish on the Broncos 2013 season, but you can't overlook how good the Broncos were last year. They entered the season as the favorites in the AFC, won the AFC West, finished 13-3, won homefield advantage, and took care of both San Diego and New England on route to winning the AFC. Peyton Manning threw for a record 55 touchdowns and the offense scored over 600 points. It was a great season and probably the third best season the Broncos have put together in my lifetime. They did everything they were supposed to do, but they still failed at the worst time and didn't accomplish the goal of winning the Super Bowl. In the long winter, spring, and summer, I watched the entire season all over again (Except the Super Bowl of course) and I still can't believe how good this team was. Offensively, it was a pleasure to watch this team execute every single week. The whole team overcame so much adversity and they still were able to get to the Super Bowl. After watching all the games from last year, I watched the celebration at the end of the AFC Championship. To see John Elway holding up the Lamar Hunt Trophy, and to see Peyton Manning just kind of standing back and observing the whole scene while the confetti rained down, it was just really neat to watch it one more time. And with that viewing I finally put to bed the 2013 season and began to focus on the 2014 season. It is a new year, with new players, but the fact remains that the Broncos are still legitimate contenders to the Super Bowl. As long as Peyton Manning is back there at QB, then the Broncos have a shot to win it all, and I guess that is all you can ask for in today's NFL. It is time to start to new season, and hopefully I will be celebrating a Super Bowl victory in Glendale, Arizona on February 1, 2015.

Storylines for the 2014 Season:

1) Health: Every team gets banged up and loses guys during the season, but last year Denver got really ravaged by injuries at times. They were able to overcome those injuries and still finish 13-3. Can they survive again if the injury bug hits them? Will they be able to stay healthy enough as the season goes on to give them a chance in the playoffs?

2) Special Teams Question Marks: The Broncos are going to be without K Matt Prater for the first four games of the season. Rookie Brandon McManus is taking his place. You really hope Denver doesn't lose a game or two by a key field goal miss in those four games. Also, last year Denver's coverage units were terrible down the stretch. How have those units improved this year? Lastly, there is no more threat of Trindon Holliday returning punts and kicks anymore. Undrafted rookie Isaiah Burse takes his place. Can he be effective enough to be as dangerous as Holliday was?

3) Orange Crush: Von Miller and Chris Harris return after late season injuries. How effective are they going to be? Can they return to form quickly enough? The additions of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward are supposed to take this defense to another level. Those three guys are going to be under the microscope because if this defense can return to the form of 2012, then this group could be special.

4) Better Offensively? You really can't ask for that much improvement from last year's offense, but this group might actually be a little better. Emmanuel Sanders might be an improvement over Eric Decker in the sense that he gives the Broncos a more explosive option at the receiver spot. Also, Montee Ball might be ready to take the reins over from the departed Knowshon Moreno. I doubt that Denver will score as many points as last year, but they might be better overall.

5) Distractions: First, Matt Prater is lost for four games due to a suspension. Next, Wes Welker gets banned for the first four games. The easiest way to kill your season is to do it to yourself. The Broncos can't have any more distractions around their team. It seems like every year the Broncos are dealing with these types of issues. Sure, they can somehow overcome the losses of both Prater and Welker, but it is going to be a challenge. The distractions have to go away and the focus has to be on the field.


Colts (+7) over DENVER: The Broncos will be tested early at home by Andrew Luck and the Colts. This feels like a back and forth game between Luck and Manning. I think both defenses are going to have a hard time stopping the other team's offense. I am worried about Denver's secondary. Remember, Chris Harris is playing for the first time since tearing his ACL in the Divisional Playoff Game against the Chargers. Von Miller is playing for the first time since tearing his ACL in Week 6. I have a bad feeling about this opener. It will be a good game and a shootout, but I think Luck and the Colts have the last laugh.

Final Score: Colts-36 Broncos-33

NFL Week 1 Picks!

It's BACK! The NFL returns and the 2014 gets going with a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday. Week 1 usually features some upsets and some crazy games, so gamblers should beware. One point of emphasis I would like to make while watching Week 1 is the point of emphasis that the league made in the offseason. They are going to call a lot more defensive holding and illegal contact calls on the defense. If you watched the preseason, then you saw about a million penalties in this area. I think it will die down as the season goes on, but I think the flags will be flying in the first month of the season. That could really sway some games, and it definitely will create more offense early in the year. Last year, I finished 10 games over .500, so I look to duplicate that feat this year. As I said before, Week 1 is tricky, so hopefully I can get out of the gate on the right foot. Onto the picks for Week 1...

Last Year's Record: 128-118-12
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New Orleans (-3) over ATLANTA: I like the Falcons to get back to the playoffs this year, but I'm going against them in Week 1. This is a great first game between these two NFC South rivals, and both of them will be playing in January, but I look for Drew Brees to find a way to win this game late.

Minnesota (+3.5) over ST. LOUIS: The Rams' season got blown up by the Sam Bradford injury, and I think the Vikings could be sneaky good this year. Take the Vikings on the road to pull the slight upset.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland: How long do we have to wait for Cleveland to pull Brian Hoyer for Johnny Manziel? Take Dick LeBeau against anyone the Browns throw up there in this game.

Jacksonville (+11) over PHILLY: The Eagles will win the game outright, but the Jags will keep it close and at least get a backdoor cover. This is probably the least interesting game of Week 1. By the way, all of a sudden people are picking the Eagles as their darkhouse Super Bowl team out of the NFC. I think we are giving them a little too much credit on that one.

NY JETS (-4) over Oakland: The Jets get a gift for the opening game of the season as the Raiders come all the way East for an early start. I'll take Rex Ryan preparing for a rookie QB like Derek Carr any day of the week. If the Jets lose this game, then their season might be in jeopardy.

BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Cincy: I've loved this line for a month. Here is my scenario for this game: The home crowd gets the Ravens going early, Baltimore uses that momentum to grab an early lead, and the Ravens defense jumps all over an unsuspecting Andy Dalton for an easy win at home.

CHICAGO (-6) over Buffalo: This is the second least interesting game of the week. The Bears get a bad offensive team in their own building to start the year. Look for the Bears runaway win to start the year.

HOUSTON (-2) over Washington: This is an intriguing game as RG III makes his way back to Texas for a date with the Texans in Week 1. This might be one of the closest games of the week. I'll take the Texans at home to start off the Bill O'Brien era, but this will be a fun game to watch. Expect a nail biter.

Tennessee (+5) over KANSAS CITY: This has the makings of a game where things break right for Tennessee and after the game you are wondering if this whole Ken Whisenhunt-Jake Locker thing is going to work out this year. This is one of my upset specials of Week 1.

New England (-4) over MIAMI: This is one of the best games of the early starts in Week 1. Miami usually has an advantage in September at home in 1:00 games. It is usually stifling hot and humid. Maybe they can use that to their advantage and shock the Pats. I doubt it because Tom Brady will find a way to gut this game out for New England.

TAMPA BAY (PICK) over Carolina: This is a pretty nondescript game for the doubleheader on Sunday afternoon. I don't see a lot out of both of these teams this year, but look for Tampa Bay to find a way to win this game. This has 16-10 written all over it.

DALLAS (+5) over San Francisco: I'm 34 years old and I remember when this was THE RIVALRY in the NFL in the 90s. They were the two best teams by far in the league, and both of them had all the best players. It was like the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union. As for Sunday's game, I have a feeling the Cowboys play really well and maybe even pull an upset on the 49ers.

NY Giants (+5) over DETROIT: This game goes two ways. The first scenario is that Detroit comes out clicking on all cylinders and the Giants look sloppy and the Lions cruise to a 31-10 win. The other scenario is that the Giants look great on offense, totally jump on Detroit early, and never look back in a convincing win. I'll take the G-Men to surprise some people on Monday Night Football.

ARIZONA (-3) over San Diego: The late doubleheader game on Monday Night Football is an interesting one in the desert. A lot of people are starting to pick San Diego as a legitimate contender in the AFC this year. I've seen a lot of places that have the Chargers taking the AFC West instead of Denver. I'm not so sure I put all that faith in Mike McCoy just yet. This game smells like a really close one with the Cards pulling it out at the end.

Season Opener Pick

Green Bay (+6) over SEATTLE

The Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl Champions and they get the right to open the season at home on the Thursday night opener. It is a really fun game as the Packers and Aaron Rodgers come to Seattle to try and challenge that defense and the homefield advantage that the Seahawks have. I think Seattle will win the game, but look for Rodgers and the Pack to make it a really good game and keep it close.