Thursday Night Pick-Week 4

WASHINGTON (-3) over New York Giants: The rule of thumb with these Thursday night games is that you have to take the home team. It is just too much for these road teams to handle on a short week with the travel. Plus, I think Washington with Kirk Cousins is actually a pretty good team, and I could see them making a run at a wild card spot. I’m taking the Redskins with Cousins at home. 

Week 3 Picks!!

I'm off to an absolutely horrific start to picking games against the spread this year. I'm the equivalent to a team starting the season 0-2, losing both games by a combined 70 points, and the starting quarterback just got taken off the field on a cart with a season-ending injury. When I go through my picks the last two weeks, I start to look like Lovie Smith watching Thursday night's debacle at Atlanta. Anyway, the only way to get back into the race is to take baby steps. Hopefully, I'm going to try and close my 12 game gap by winning little by little each week. Here goes the picks for Week 3.....

Last Week’s Record: 5-10-1

Overall Record: 9-21-2

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

San Diego (+3) over BUFFALO: The Chargers showed some serious muscle in their defeat of the Seahawks last week. You have to think SD will seriously challenge Denver in the AFC West and the other top teams in the AFC this year. I like the 2-0 start by Buffalo, but I think the Chargers will find a way to win this game. Fun game though.

Dallas (-1) over ST.LOUIS: Dallas is going to screw with me this year-I just know it. I picked them in Week 1 and they got killed by San Fran. I went against them in Week 2 and they upset the Titans. I'll take them this week, and if they screw me over again by losing to Austin Davis and the Rams, then I am done with them.

Washington (+7) over PHILLY: With RG III out indefinitely, the Skins turn to Kirk Cousins, who looked good in relief last week in the win over the Jaguars. A lot of people felt Cousins was actually a better fit for this team over RG III, and now we get to find out. I have a feeling this game will be closer than people think.

NY GIANTS (+2) over Houston: As bad as the Giants have looked, I can't see them going 0-3 for the second straight year. This will be one of those ugly games where the Giants finally catch a break and win 19-16 on a late field goal. This is also my last stand with the Giants.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Minnesota: Saints are at home with the following: 0-2 start, Minnesota still reeling from the Adrian Peterson situation, and Matt Cassel on the road in a dome. Thanks, I'll take the Saints giving eight.

CINCY (-7) over Tennessee: You can start to build the case that the Bengals are right there with the Broncos and Patriots as the elite contenders in the AFC. Nothing suggests that the Titans will come into Cincy and change that thought this week.

Baltimore (-1) over CLEVELAND: We'll see how the Ray Rice fallout continues to affect this team, but you have to think the Ravens will get the job done on the road against Cleveland this week.

Green Bay (+3) over DETROIT: I'm a little worried about the Packers here. Blowout loss to Seattle on opening night, then a come-from-behind win over the Jets at home last week. What kind of team do they have? I will take them on the road as underdogs, but I'm a little shaky with this pick. It wouldn't surprise me if you looked up in the 3rd quarter and this game was Lions-27 Packers-10 or something like that.

JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indy: The Colts will win the game, but we have established early on that the Colts have some liabilities: No running game, Trent Richardson really blows, Andrew Luck will have to put everything on his shoulders this year, no Robert Mathis is really bad for them, and any quality QB will torch them. Now, the Jags are still sticking with Chad Henne, so that should help the Colts, but I think the Jags keep it close before Luck pulls it out late. 

NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Oakland: The Pats are at home with the 0-2 Raiders coming across the country for an early game for the second time in three weeks. This is a no-brainer no matter how high the spread is.

ARIZONA (+3) over San Francisco: Arizona could be 3-0 after this game, and you know why I am picking them as a home underdog: I still don't trust Colin Kaepernick. He killed the 49ers the last game, and he is a hit or miss type of player. Take the Cards and their defense at home.

Miami (-3) over Kansas City: KC was valiant in defeat last week at Denver even after they lost Jamaal Charles after the first series. The Dolphins went up to Buffalo last week and got hammered every which way. At 1-1, I still think the Dolphins are a pretty good team, so I would expect them to find a way to eek this one out at home.

Pittsburgh (+4) over CAROLINA: The Panthers defense scares me against this Steeler offense, but I am going to go with my gut and take the Steelers. Look for Big Ben to make one of those ridiculous back and forth scramble throws to keep a drive alive, and then look for the Steelers to win it late.

Chicago (+3) over NY JETS: Normally, I would pick the Jets because I could see Jay Cutler having one of those nightmare games that he tends to throw out there every year, but I can't trust the Jets secondary in this game at all. How the hell are they going to stop Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett? I just can't see it, and the Bears are the underdog, so I'll take them on Monday night.

SEATTLE (-4.5) over Denver: The main event game on Sunday. The Super Bowl rematch in the late window on CBS with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. I love how the NFL made this a late start on Sunday instead of a SNF or MNF game. I'm looking forward to it. I think that the Broncos can take more from this game psychologically if they lose but keep it close. If they get blown out again, which could definitely happen since this game is in Seattle, then that could really affect them going forward this year. I think they will certainly play better than they did in the Super Bowl, but this is a tall order. A few aspects of this game that will affect the outcome:
-Can Denver stop Marshawn Lynch and the playmaking of Russel Wilson?
-Can the return of Wes Welker kickstart the Broncos offense?
-Will Peyton Manning challenge Richard Sherman?
-Can the Broncos protect Manning from the Seattle pass rush?

Those will be the keys to this game, and if the Broncos can succeed in three of those four areas, then they have a chance to win. Overall, I think this is too much of a buzz saw for them to overcome. Plus, Seattle is coming off a loss, and I can't see them going 1-2 with a loss at home. Look for Seattle to jump on top early, and for Manning to make a rally late, but the Seahawks are just too good to lose in this spot.

Final Score: Seahawks-28 Denver-20

Broncos Hold Off Chiefs 24-17: Bend But Don’t Break

The Broncos "survived" another week with a 24-17 win over the Chiefs in Denver on Sunday. Many fans are complaining about the win, but the bottom line is that win is a win, and Denver is 2-0 to start the year over two teams that were a combined 22-10 last year. It might not have been the prettiest win, but the Broncos got the job done once again. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game........

1)    Great play to Emmanuel Sanders on first play of the game. Peyton Manning made a great fake on the play-action pass and hit Sanders in stride for a 48-yard game . Great drive and great fade to Julius Thomas for an early 7-0 lead.

2)    The  Broncos defense couldn’t get off the field all game long. Knile Davis ate them up at times, Alex Smith killed them on 3^rd down passes and scrambles. Give Chiefs credit, but Broncos also killed themselves on 3^rd down. The Chiefs took a 10-7 lead and looked like the better team at that time. The Broncos had 11 penalties in the game. How many times did the defense jump offsides in this game? Defensive penalties have been a problem so far this season.

3)     The Broncos looked smooth in their last two drives of first half. Sweet play to Jacob Tamme for second touchdown and a 14-10 lead. Manning's 12-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas was a sweet fade route once again. At 21-10, you felt that the Broncos were in good position to take control of the game and run away with it. Naturally, they couldn’t extend their lead more.

4)    The main reason why the Broncos couldn’t extend the lead was because KC held onto it for basically the entire second half. Cheifs went 19 plays and took up 10 minutes of game time only to settle for a field goal that was missed. After Denver has drive stall at midfield, the Chiefs once again marched down the field-with the aid of Broncos penalties-to cut the lead to a 21-17. The Chiefs held the ball for over 36 minutes in this game. Give credit to the Chiefs, but a lot of that was self-inflicted by dumb plays by the Broncos defense. Think about it: The Chiefs didn't have Jamaal Charles since the opening possession of the game.

5)    Andre Caldwell returned the ball to midfield to give the Broncos a chance to put the game away. I didn’t understand the call to Sanders on 3^rd and goal. He runs a route and ends up 3 yards short of the end zone. They settle for the FG and only a 24-17 lead. Last year, Denver would have scored a touchdown there and put the game away, but this year they haven't been able to do that, and this gave the Chiefs a chance to tie it late.

6)    Give KC and Smith credit for rallying and getting the ball down inside five. DeMarcus Ware thought he ended the game on a strip-sack, but the Smith’s hand was going forward. Great stop by the defense for the second game in a row. Terrence Knighton got a hand up and swatted down a 4^th down pass, and Denver’s defense saves the day once again. It's encouraging that all of the nonsense with the penalties and big plays given up in the second half, that the Broncos defense made the key stop at the end of the game for the second consecutive game.

7)    This isn’t last year. The Broncos offense has had good 1^st halves, and inconsistent 2^nd halves. It is not the same team as last year. It seems like the Broncos are trying to find an identity on offense. They want to line up with two and three tight ends and run the ball with Montee Ball and set up their play action game which is nice, but this team will go as far as Peyton Manning will take them. I'm not saying they have to put all the eggs in his basket, but let him do what he does best. Play up-tempo, no-huddle, let Manning pick apart the defense through the air, and then grind it out on the ground when you have to. I don't envision the Broncos scoring over 600 points this year. This looks more like 2012-Manning's first year in Denver- than last year.

8)    Defensively, The new guys like Ware, T.J. Ward and Aqib Talib have paid off. They have played well, but the defense seems confused at times with alignment. I like the play of Nate Irving in the middle, but there are still holes up the middle on nickel situations. They really need Danny Trevathan when he comes back from injury in a few weeks. Chris Harris and Von Miller are working themselves back in. It will take time for the both of them-especially Miller. He did get his first sack of the year before the half, but he was resting a groin injury as precaution on the last drive. The defense is definitely better than last year, but they really need to get off the field on 3^rd down.
9) Two coaching moves that should be discussed. Why did Andy Reid elect to kick the extra point and not go for the two-point conversion when KC scored to make it 21-6 with 7:11 left in the game? I know Peyton Manning is on the other side of the field, but go for two there and try to make it 21-18. The damn sheet tells you what to do in those situations. Also, I am not going to get on John Fox for settling for a field goal to give Denver a 24-17 lead with 3:27 remaining. The Broncos faced a 4th and goal from the 3, but their offense hasn't been able to close out games, and they really didn't do anything in the second half. I actually agreed with Fox there. Take the points, make Alex Smith go down the field and try and tie the game. It ended up working out, but the Broncos had to sweat a bit there.

9)    Overall, the Broncos are  2-0 and that is all that matters. I feel like the Bronco fans are a little spoiled from last year when the Broncos would be dropping 40 points on everyone and cruising to a lopsided win. It is a new season, and all that matters is the result. I'll take both of these wins at home and be completely satisfied with it. Now, it is off to Seattle for the Super Bowl rematch with the Seahawks. It is definitely one of the marquee games of the year, and the Broncos face a mental challenge in this one to go along with the problems that Seattle gives them. I'll have more thoughts about the game in my Week 3 picks column, but if Denver goes up and gets crushed again, then that could be a bad sign for this team as the year progresses. 

Week 3 Thursday Night Pick!

ATLANTA (-6) over Tampa Bay
My picks have been downright awful so far this year. I'm just not clicking on all cylinders. I'll take the  Falcons laying only a touchdown at home tonight. I usually favor the home team on Thursday night, and the Bucs have lost two games at home to backup quarterbacks to start the season. You know what that means? The Bucs will win this game outright.

Ray Rice, Roger Goodell and Week 2 Picks

Everyone in the free world has pretty much chimed in on Ray Rice and Roger Goodell, but since I am making my picks column I felt obligated to write about it before I move on to talking about real football. Here are my feelings/opinions about what I think about Rice and Goddell. As far as Rice goes, the Ravens obviously wanted to believe and trust him, and they surely wanted him to play this year, so they didn’t pursue the incident as much as they possibly could. The Ravens and their front office deserve to get blamed for that, and they haven’t gotten as much heat as the NFL office has. 

Now, onto to the Commissioner of the NFL. The one thing that stands out about Goodell is that he always seemed to me as a person who is not the smartest person in the world-especially if that person is supposed to be in charge of the most powerful sports league in North America. With that said, Goodell has made many impulsive and inconsistent decisions on certain matters as Commissioner during his tenure. He seems to make decisions and he treats the NFL fans and the public like we are some group of naïve children. He talked about player safety and concussions, but then he tries to stuff 18 games down our throats because fans “want it.” Also, he includes as full-slate of Thursday night games because the fans “want more of the product.” He also mishandled the investigation with the Patriots and Spygate, and he wrecked the Saints entire season by mishandling the Bountygate suspensions. He is never consistent with his suspensions and sanctions involving players. Now, Goodell completely screws up the process involving Ray Rice. I think that Goodell saw the tape and gave Ray Rice a two-game suspension, and he just isn’t smart enough to understand the severity of the case. If Goodell didn’t see the video in the elevator, then he just didn’t want to see it, hand down punishment to Rice, and hope this whole thing goes away. Either way, I’m not saying that Goodell needs to get fired as NFL commissioner, but I’m just not sure that he is smart or savvy enough to handle the responsibilities of running this league. Now, finally onto the picks for Week 2…

Last Week’s Record: 4-11-1

Overall Record: 4-11-1

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Detroit (+3) over CAROLINA: I’ll take the Lions this week on the road after an impressive win over the Giants on Monday night. The Panthers won on the road without Cam Newton. I’m going to buy the Lions being a threat in the NFC North and getting a big win on the road.

Miami (-1) over BUFFALO: The Dolphins were probably the most impressive team of Week 1 with their win over the Patriots. You have to think that they should be able to keep that momentum going into Buffalo this week. The Bills also shocked everyone by upsetting the Bears in Chicago in Week 1. This suddenly becomes a key Week 2 game in the AFC East. I’ll ride the Fish until they prove me wrong.

Jacksonville (+6) over WASHINGTON: You have to think the Redskins will get RG III and their offense going at home this week. The Jags were up 17-0 over the Eagles and they fell apart and lost 34-17. I think the Jags are a little more feisty than we thought they would be. I'm backing them getting six on the road. 

TENNESSEE (-3) over Dallas: This could be the easiest game of the week for me to pick. I love the Titans at home here. Tennessee buried the Chiefs in KC last week, and if they can stay healthy, then they could definitely be a playoff contender this year. The Cowboys come to town on the heels of a dreadful loss to the 49ers last week. Take the Titans laying the field goal.

NY GIANTS (+2) over Arizona: This is dangerous for me to take this putrid Giants offense against a solid defense like Arizona's, but I'm going to stick with the G-Men this week. Why? Because everyone is picking the Cards to win outright this week. I'll give the Giants a win somehow at home.

New England (-3) over MINNESOTA: There is no way the Patriots are going 0-2. Right?

CLEVELAND (+7) over New Orleans: There is no way that the Saints are going 0-2. Right? Look for this to be close, but the Saints will win the game.

Atlanta (+5) over CINCY: Tough spot for Atlanta on the road in Cincy. You have to be impressed by the Falcons and their come-from-behind win over the Saints last week. Cincy did a number on Baltimore for three quarters, then it pulled it out with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green heroics. Cincy will win the game, but the Falcons will keep this game really close.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over St. Louis: Both teams are garbage and this might be this week’s winner for “Least Interesting Game of the Week.” The Rams lost Chris Long for the next two months, and they might have to start Austin Davis at QB. That's right folks. Austin Davis is starting at QB in the NFL and Tim Tebow is doing SEC games on ESPN. Just think about that for a minute. 

SAN DIEGO (+7) over Seattle: I have loved the Chargers in this game all week long and here's why: The Seahawks have been the past week and a half basking in the glory of just how good they are after their dominating win over the Packers last Thursday night in the season opener. I think they will find a way to win this game on a late Russell Wilson drive, but this will be a close game throughout. 

OAKLAND (+3) over Houston: Derek Carr gets revenge on his older brother’s former team in the “Carr Bowl.” Jadeveon Clowney is out for Houston with a knee injury, so that kind of takes the fun out of this one. Take the Raiders at home to get to 1-1.

GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Jets: This is a tough game to predict. The Packers will win, but I could see the Jets keeping it closer than people think. I’ll trust the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to put this game away in the 4^th quarter.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Chicago: Tough game to call. You would think that a lot of people would be bailing on the Bears after last week’s horrible loss to the Bills at home. It would be surprising to see them start 0-2. On the other hand, this is a tough spot for them. Road game, Sunday Night Football, opening of a new stadium, and the 49ers to boot. Everyone is back on the 49ers bandwagon after mostly everyone jumped off during preseason. I would take the Bears here, but it sounds like both Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall are game-time decisions. I can't risk it based on that information. 

INDY (-2) over Philly: Good matchup for Monday Night Football. I can’t see the Colts losing this game at home. It will be a good game and go back and forth, but look for Andrew Luck and the Colts to find a way to win this game late.

Kansas City (+13) over DENVER: I think the Broncos are getting a huge advantage by getting an already wounded KC team coming to Denver in Week 2. After last week’s victory over the Colts, the Broncos won’t have to worry about Alex Smith pulling an Andrew Luck impersonation. The Broncos defense should be able to contain the Chiefs handily in this game. I think this line is too high, and the Broncos should win, but you just can’t lay that many points-especially since Denver has trouble closing out these games when they get a big lead.

Final Score: Broncos:27 Chiefs:21

Thursday Night Pick

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Pittsburgh: This is such a weird game to pick because of the Ray Rice release and controversy. Sometimes, a team can rally around each other while dealing with adversity. I'm sure John Harbaugh is going to try and use this situation and motivate his team to become a closer unit heading into this rivalry game with the Steelers. You have to wonder if the Rice situation will affect the Ravens like the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin situation ambushed Miami's season last year. I just don't know how the Ravens are going to react to this, but I'll take them this week and see where it goes from here.

Broncos Hold Off Late Colts Rally and Win Opener

All that matters is the win, and the Broncos got their first win of the season over the feisty Colts on Sunday night 31-24 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos led this game 24-0 at one point in the 2^nd quarter, and they led 31-10 midway through the 4^th quarter. Andrew Luck was able to rally the Colts late, and the Broncos defense was forced to make a stop to preserve the victory. Bradley Roby knocked down a 4^th down pass intended for Reggie Wayne to secure the win. It was a tale of two halves for the Broncos, but despite the late rally, Denver holds on, gets the win over a quality opponent, and is 1-0 heading into next week. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game…

1)    Peyton Manning and the offense were in midseason form in the first half. Manning finished 22-36 for 269 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The first four drives of the game looked like last year. The Broncos scored a field goal and three touchdowns to start the half and were up 24-0 and cruising. They were certainly emphasizing the running game early too. There were a lot of two and three tight end sets to start with some counter runs to Montee Ball. I like this approach, but after a while it wasn’t working. The Broncos should just be who they are: Shotgun spread and let Manning find the mismatches on the defense. His pass to Julius Thomas on 3^rd and 10 on a fade route on the second possession was about as perfect as you could throw that kind of ball. Just a thing of beauty.

2)    Defensively, I thought the Broncos played really solid at times. DeMarcus Ware made his presence known with 1.5 sacks and constant pressure all night. Aqib Talib played really well at cornerback, and Nate Irving played really well in the middle. The Broncos defense forced three punts and got an interception by Rahim Moore on the first four drives to help Denver take the 24-0 lead.

3)    Andrew Luck’s touchdown run to cut the game to 24-7 late in the 2^nd quarter swung the momentum. It seemed that the Broncos offense couldn’t get out of their own way. They have bad field position, drops, and penalties to kill drives. The defense started to look tired and gassed having to deal with Luck during the second half. Give the Broncos defense credit for that huge goal line stand early in the 3^rd quarter. At 24-7, to stop the Colts inside the five was a big moment in the game.

4)    The Broncos just couldn’t get this game over with. At 24-10 with 13 minutes left in the game, Denver took over at the Indy 48. This drive was classic Broncos as they mixed in runs and a quick screen to Demaryius Thomas to set up a short Ball touchdown run to give them a 31-10 lead.

5)    The Broncos really suck at closing games out. They had trouble finishing off the Chargers and Pats in the playoffs, and they had trouble once again last night. At 31-10, this is where the game got crazy. After giving up a touchdown pass from Luck to Dwayne Allen, the Broncos screwed up the onside kick and gave the ball back to Indy up 31-17 with just over seven minutes to go in the game. After a big interception by Rahim Moore, the Broncos offense stalled once again, and Luck got the ball back and drove Indy again to a late score on pass to Hakeem Nicks. Now, at 31-24 the game became way too close. Denver’s offense went 3 and out, and Manning missed two open receivers for first downs on that series. Indy got the ball back, but give credit to the defense as Bradley Roby swatted away a 4^th down pass in Denver territory. The Broncos need to get better at closing these games out. At 31-10, this thing should have been over. They never should have had to make a stop on defense to hold on. They have to shut the door on these teams when they can. Also, there is no way in hell I want to see Luck again in the playoffs. No thanks on that one.

6)    Overall, you take the good and the bad with the first game of a new season. Manning and the offense looked brilliant at times and put up 31 points. Julius Thomas scored 3 touchdowns and looked like a difference maker once again. Emmanuel Sanders had over 77 yards receiving and looked like a big-time playmaker that we need. The defense had 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, a goal line stand, and a 4^th down stop to end the game. Obviously, the Broncos know there is room for improvement and they know they have to close out games better. As a fan, you are happy with the win, relieved to be 1-0, and satisfied knowing the Broncos beat a good team with a great, young quarterback at home to start the year.

7)    Next week, Denver hosts Kansas City at 4:25pm EST. The Chiefs come in at 0-1 after a 26-10 loss at home to the Titans. The Chargers and Raiders also lost in Week 1, so this is a great chance for the Broncos to take an early lead out of the gates in the AFC West.