Broncos-Bucs and Week 4 Picks!

The Broncos are 3-0 and they went into Cincy last week and bombed the Bengals 29-17 on the heels of Trevor Siemian's four touchdown day. Now, they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the 1-2 Bucs. This game is tricky for Denver because it is the second straight week that they have to go on the road, and it will be very hot and humid in Tampa this Sunday. The Bucs could be dangerous at home and Jameis Winston hasn't played great the last two weeks. I could see the Bucs giving Denver a lot of trouble this week. I'm a little nervous going into this game.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Denver
Final Score: Buccaneers-20 Broncos-17

Last Week's Record: 10-5-1
Overall Record: 28-18-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Indy (-1) over Jacksonville (In London): London gets stuck with another dud game as the NFL returns for the first of three across the pond. Gus Bradley and the Jags are 0-3, and he might not make it back on the plane as head coach if they lose this week to the Colts. Indy is 1-2 and I think they will get to 2-2 after taking care of the Jaguars in London.

Cleveland (+8) over WASHINGTON: The Browns have been competitive the last two weeks, and now they head to DC to take on the 1-2 Redskins. Although they are 0-3, I could see the Browns somehow keeping this close for awhile. I like the way that the Redskins won a key road game at the Giants last week. They will get to 2-2 with a win, but I'm not ready to lay all the points with them.

Buffalo (+6) over NEW ENGLAND: The Pats will win this game, but it feels like this will be a 17-14 or 19-16 kind of victory for them. Bill Belichick just wants to figure out a way to get this game out of the way with a win with a beat up Jimmy Garapolo or Jacoby Brissett. I think the Bills and Tyrod Taylor will keep this game close in the 4th quarter. 

NY JETS (+3) over Seattle: The Seahawks come in at 2-1, but their offensive line is still a huge question mark and Russell Wilson is banged up. Whether he plays or not, I don't think the Seahawks will be able to block the Jets up front. Look for the Jets to get a big home win and get to 2-2.

Carolina (-3) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are 2-1 and head back home to take on the 1-2 Panthers. I'm not worried about the Panthers yet, and I think they will go into Atlanta and Cam Newton will put the team on his back again and get the key win. 

CHICAGO (+3) over Detroit: I don't think the Bears can win but they are 1-8 in their last nine home games and 3-14 in their last 17 games. At some point, they have to win a home game and why not get off the hook with a upset at home against the Lions?

HOUSTON (-6) over Tennessee: The Texans got dumped last Thursday night at New England. They are 2-1, but they just found out this week that J.J. Watt is going to be out for the year after re-injuring his back. I think Bill O'Brien, who did an awful coaching job last week, will be able to sell his team on getting back on track this week. The Titans almost pulled one out last week at home against the Raiders, but fell short and now come into this game at 1-2. This is an intriguing game, but I think the Texans will get the win at home to go to 3-1.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Oakland: The Raiders are 2-1, but they have to make their third long trip back East in four weeks. The Ravens come in at 3-0, but a lot of people are not sold on them yet. I am on the Ravens bandwagon and I think they will be too much to handle for the Raiders this week in Baltimore.

Dallas (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Cowboys are 2-1 and Dak Prescott has played well in his first three games. They head to San Fran to take on the 49ers. This could be a trap game because the 1-2 Niners aren't a better team, but they are at home and I could see the 49ers playing well. I'll take the Cowboys in this spot to get to 3-1, but I am a little nervous about the pick.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New Orleans: The Chargers could easily be 3-0, but they are 1-2 after losing another terrible game late at Indy last week. The Saints are 0-3, and their defense is just a disaster at this point. I think the Chargers will jump all over them early and hold on late to win and get to 2-2.

Los Angeles (+9) over ARIZONA: I haven't liked anything that I have seen out of the Cardinals this year. At 1-2, they lost a terrible game on the road last week to the Bills.  I think they will win this game at home, but I can't just lay the points with them at home here. I think the Rams will keep this game close until the end.

Kansas City (+6) over PITTSBURGH: Good game for Sunday Night Football as the 2-1 Chiefs head to Pittsburgh to take on the 2-1 Steelers. I think the Steelers will rebound after their blowout loss to the Eagles last week, but I think this game will go back and forth. I think it comes down to the end and a three point game late.

New York Giants (+4) over MINNESOTA: The Vikings have been the talk of the NFC with their 3-0 start. Now, they come home and host the 2-1 Giants, who had a bad loss at home last week to the Redskins. I know this looks like a tough game for the Giants, but I have a sneaking suspicion that they will play well on Monday night. I think the G-Men have enough weapons on offense to challenge the Vikings defense and get an upset win in Minnesota.

Bengals-Dolphins Week 4 TNF Pick!

Miami (+7) over CINCINNATI: Both teams come into the game at 1-2. This is a very critical game as the loser will be 1-3 and face an uphill climb the rest of the year. I think the Bengals will win outright, but I have a feeling that the Dolphins will be competitive and keep it close.

Broncos, Siemian Blow Past Bengals 29-17

When you looked at the schedule before the season, this game figured to be a tough one for the Broncos to win. On the road, against a perennial playoff team, with a young QB in a hostile building. All those factors made me believe that the Broncos were in serious danger of losing to the Bengals on Sunday. Fortunately, the Broncos came through with a huge road win to get to 3-0 with a 29-17 victory over the Bengals in Cincy. The Broncos overcame three different deficits and stormed back in the 4th quarter to win going away. It was a tremendous team win, highlighted by Trevor Siemian's huge passing day, and the Broncos get a very impressive win and now sit at 3-0. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game...

1) Trevor Siemian might have had his coming out party. Siemian was very impressive in the 4th quarter. He finished the day 23-35 for 312 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INT. He made some awesome throws-especially on 3rd down. His 41 yard TD throw to Emmanuel Sanders on 3rd down in the second quarter made it 10-7 Denver. His 55 yard bomb to Demaryius Thomas late in the 4th quarter sealed the gamed. He made big throws all afternoon. He hit Sanders with a sweet 7 yard TD pass to make it 16-14 right before halftime. He made big time throws to Jeff Heuerman and Bennie Fowler in the 4th quarter as well. Tip your cap to Siemian because he was really good when it counted on Sunday.

2) Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryus Thomas came back with their best games of the season. Sanders was terrific as he hauled in 9 catches for 117 yards and 2 TDs. He destroyed Adam Jones all day long. Thomas had 6 receptions for 100 yards and the game-clinching score. He also had a huge catch and run in the 4th quarter as well. They both made big plays that helped the Broncos secure the win. That is what you need out of your playmakers on the road.

3) The Broncos defense got gassed on the first drive of the game as Cincy went right down the field and went 74 yards on 5 plays. After that, the Broncos defense settled in and did what they normally do: Create pressure, tackle well, and make big plays. They got four sacks, picked off a pass in the 4th quarter, and created enough pressure to keep Andy Dalton off balance in critical parts of the second half. Tremendous bounce back after a rough first drive.

4) Shane Ray had his best game as a Bronco. He had three sacks, forced numerous pressures, and showed his potential as another key piece to the defense. Von Miller also added a sack late in the game to preserve the win. If Ray can keep this up, who knows how much this defense can grow.

5) The key play early in the game was when Zaire Anderson forced an Adam Jones fumble on a punt in 1st quarter. With Cincy up 7-3 after forcing a Denver 3 and out, the Broncos recovered the fumble on the punt, and they capitalized by getting a touchdown from Siemian to Sanders on the next drive to go up 10-7. That was a huge turning point early on.

6) Another key play was late in the 2nd quarter. A Broncos drive was kept alive after a 3rd down incompletion was nullified by a Bengals defensive holding penalty. The Broncos drive continued and they scored a TD with just 28 seconds left to take a 16-14 lead going into halftime.

7) The Broncos did get the benefit of having 5 first downs due to Bengals penalties. They were also very fortunate because Siemian had two sure fire interceptions dropped in the second quarter. Sometimes you need a break or two on the road to win a game and the Broncos got a few of those on Sunday.

8) Another key play was when late in the game, the Bengals had a 3rd down drop by A.J. Green down 22-17. If he catches the ball, then the Bengals have a first down. Instead, they are forced to punt and Siemian made them pay with the game-winning bomb to DT to put Denver up 29-17.

9) With the huge road win, Denver now stands at 3-0 and atop the AFC West. With the Panthers, Colts and Bengals to start the year, I was not expecting Denver to win all three games, but here they are at 3-0 and they are rolling. I'm not jumping to far ahead of myself, but you have to like what you have seen out of Denver so far. Let's keep the momentum rolling this week as the Broncos travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs. Go Broncos!

Broncos-Bengals Preview and Week 3 Picks

The Broncos head to Cincy at 2-0 to take on the 1-1 Bengals. You have to be happy with the start the Broncos have had so far in 2016. I think that the defense has been really good, the offense has shown some flashes, and they were able to hold serve at home against the Panthers and Colts. A lot of people didn't think that they would be 2-0 after those first two weeks, but here they are. Now, this week will be challenging. The Broncos are a bit banged up: Virgil Green, Donald Stephenson, and Demarcus Ware are out. Michael Schofield will have to go to RT and we remember how Carlos Dunlap destroyed him last year in Week 16. Plus, this is Trevor Siemian's first road game, so you can see this being a very tough game for the Broncos to win. The Broncos defense will be able to play Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense for a while, but in the end I think the Bengals will be able to get a few more key plays than the Broncos.

CINCY (-3) over Denver:
Final Score: Bengals-24 Broncos-13

Last Week's Record: 10-5-1
Overall Record: 18-13-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Oakland (+2) over TENNESSEE: I liked how the Titans responded and won a big game on the road last at Detroit last week, and the Raiders lost a rough game at home to the Falcons. Both teams come in at 1-1, and you have to worry about Oakland's ability to deal with the early starting time, but I think the Raiders will win another close game and get to 2-1.

BUFFALO (+4.5) over Arizona: I know this game looks like a mismatch on paper, but I'm still not sold on Arizona even after they pasted the Bucs at home to get to 1-1. The Bills are 0-2, fired their offensive coordinator after last Thursday's loss to the Jets. They look like a team in dysfunction, but I could see Rex Ryan rallying the troops this week. I know this might come back to bite me, but I think the Bills could pull the upset.

Baltimore (-1) over JACKSONVILLE: Gus Bradley is 12-38 in 50 games as Jacksonville coach. That is awful. I don't know if he will make it back from the London trip in a few weeks, if he doesn't win a game soon.The Jags come in at 0-2 after getting killed by the Chargers in Week 2. At 2-0, the Ravens have beaten the Bills and the Browns, so many people are not buying them just yet. I am in on the Ravens this year, and I see them going to Jacksonville and get the win.

MIAMI (-7) over Cleveland: The Dolphins are 0-2, but they traveled to Seattle and New England the first two weeks. Now, they come home to take on the 0-2 Browns. I have to think that the Dolphins should beat up on the Browns this week because if they don't, then their season is really in trouble.

Washington (+4) over NY GIANTS: I would be nervous to bet the Giants this week, but I think they will continue to ride the positive start to their season, and the G-Men should get to 3-0 by taking down the 0-2 Redskins. Washington comes in to the game in disarray and there is already finger pointing and dissension in the locker room. Look for the Giants win, but you know they will make their fans sweat it out.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Detroit: I think the paranoia about the Packers and their offense is a little overstated at this point. I think they will right the ship after falling to the Vikings in Week 2 to fall to 1-1. The Packers lost to the Lions at home last year, and I don't see them losing again to them in Lambeau this year.

Minnesota (+7) over CAROLINA: Good early game on Sunday in the NFC. I like the Panthers to win the game at home, but I see the Vikings keeping this game close. This should be a fun battle between two teams with really solid defenses.

San Francisco (+10) over SEATTLE: I can't see Seattle losing at home this week to the 49ers, but I could see the Niners keeping this game close. The Seahawks are struggling on offense because of their offensive line, and Russell Wilson is banged up with an ankle injury. Their offense will come around at some point, but until then, I think they will be in a lot of close games that Wilson will have to bail them out at the end. This week could be another one of those games.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Los Angeles: The Bucs got toasted on the road in Arizona last week, and come home at 1-1 to take on the 1-1 Rams. I worry about the Bucs offense against the Rams defense, but I think Jameis Winston will have a nice bounce back game after looking terrible last week in the loss to the Cardinals.

PHILADELPHIA (+4) over Pittsburgh: The 2-0 Eagles take on the 2-0 Steelers in the battle of Pennsylvania. You have to like what your have seen out of Carson Wentz so far, but everyone needs to slow down on him becoming the next great NFL QB. I like this game and I think that this will be a fun game to watch. I think this comes down to a field goal, and I'll take the home underdog.

NY Jets (+4) over KANSAS CITY: This is a fun game late on Sunday afternoon on CBS. This is a game between two potential playoff teams. Normally, I would take KC at home, but without their best pass rusher, I think the Jets will be able to move the ball on them. I can see the Jets winning or at least getting the backdoor cover.

INDY (-3) over San Diego: At 0-2, the Colts season is in jeopardy. They HAVE to win this game to basically save their season. The Chargers come in at 1-1 after pounding the Jags at home, and they could easily be 2-0 after blowing the game at KC in Week 1. I think Andrew Luck will find a way to win this game, but don't be surprised if the Chargers keep this close.

DALLAS (-7) over Chicago: The Bears are just bad. They are 0-2 and their blowout loss at home to the Eagles in Week 2 was just brutal to watch. Now, Jay Cutler is hurt, and they lost Lamar Houston for the season. The Cowboys are 1-1 after a thrilling win in Washington in Week 2. NBC can't be too thrilled for this game on Sunday Night Football, and I can't see the Cowboys blowing this game at home in primetime.

Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: You would figure that the Saints will win this game at home after losing their first two games in crushing fashion. I liked how the Falcons came back and won a key road game in Oakland last week to get to 1-1. I think that the Falcons are a risky pick, but I feel like it is too obvious to take the Saints at home here.

Texans-Patriots Week 3 TNF Pick

NEW ENGLAND (+1) over Houston: The Pats are 2-0 but now have to turn to third-string QB Jacoby Brissett after Jimmy Garapolo went down with a shoulder injury. The Texans come in at 2-0 and so far Brock Osweiler looks really good, and their defense is playing well. The fact that this game is on Thursday night makes it tough to pick either way, but I am done going against the Pats and doubting Bill Belichick. I'm not getting sucked into picking the Texans on a short week in Foxboro.

Broncos Defense Sacks Colts in 34-20 Week 2 Win!

The Colts had been a thorn in the side of the Broncos in recent years. This time around on Sunday the tables were turned. Denver's defense stepped up in the 4th quarter, turned the game around with an Aqib Talib interception return for a touchdown, and then they put it away with none other than Von Miller strip-sacking Andrew Luck late in the game, forcing a fumble, and Shane Ray scooped it up and rumbled into the endzone for the game-clinching score. Denver won 34-20, and the game was close throughout because of the inability of Denver's offense to get touchdowns in the redzone and the ability of Luck to keep his team in the game on his own. The Broncos got some revenge on Luck and the Colts, who had been 3-1 against the Broncos in his short career. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game.............

1) The Broncos offense continues to move the ball up and down the field on opponents so far this season. Against the Colts, the Broncos did the same. They were able to run and throw at their will, but still only put up one offensive touchdown out of the 34 they scored. I liked the run game once again with C.J. Anderson, who rumbled for 74 yards and a touchdown. Devontae Booker had a bounce back game with 51 yards on the ground. The Broncos moved the ball effectively on the first drive, but Brandon McManus missed a 54 yard field goal. The second drive featured a McManus 23 yard field goal. On the fourth drive, the Broncos capped off a 69 yard drive with a Anderson 4 yard TD run. Trevor Siemian got picked off on a WR screen at the Indy 20 on the next drive, but the Broncos got a field goal right before the half on the last drive before the half to make it 13-6 heading into the second half. They got a field goal on their first drive of the 3rd quarter to make it 16-13. They were able to drive for a field goal to make it 26-20 with 1:51 left in the game. The offense had a nice balance, moved at a solid pace, and if they were able to finish off some of these drives with touchdowns, then this game would not have been close at all.

2) I continue to like what I see from Trevor Siemian. He looks poised, in control of the offense, and he threw a lot of good balls on Sunday. His stats weren't outstanding (22-33 for 266 yards 0 TD and 1 INT) but if you watched the game you could see that he played well. His one interception was on a WR screen that Darius Butler read and then picked off, but other than that, Siemian made some big time throws-especially to Demaryius Thomas. He threw the intermediate passes very well, and I love how he got Virgil Green involved on some key drives. I like what I have so far out of Siemian, and I thought he definitely played well.

3) The Broncos defense is not the same as it was last year, but it still a very good and at times dominant defense. They had their moments where they fell asleep on drives, but if it wasn't for Luck bailing out the Colts, this defense would have given up nothing all day to the Colts. In a close game with the Broncos up 3 in the 4th quarter, Talib steps in front of a Luck pass and takes it 46 yards for a touchdown and a 23-13 lead. Then, with the game on the line and the Colts down 26-20, Von Miller does his thing and strip sacks Luck and Shane Ray scoops it up and scores to put the game away for good. I thought they tackled better in this game, harassed Luck with 5 sacks, and got 2 defensive touchdowns. That is a hell of a day in my book. Derek Wolfe was awesome with 1.5 sacks and Miller added 3 sacks. Chris Harris held T.Y. Hilton to only 2 catches when he was guarding him. The Broncos are a defensive team, and once again their defense stepped up to win the game for them.

4) What else can you say about Von Miller? He has 3 sacks in the game, and he essentially wins the game for the Broncos with his strip of Luck at the end. In his last four games including the post season, he has single-handedly won the AFC Championship, the Super Bowl, and this past game. It is unbelievable to watch how he can win a game from a defensive position. He is the most dominant defensive player I've seen since Lawrence Taylor. I'm not kidding. He is that dominant.

5) This game could have easily been a blowout, but the Broncos offensive struggles in the redzone and Luck's brilliance kept the Colts in the game.

6) The game did have some key injuries on the Broncos side of the ball. RT Donald Stephenson left with a calf injury and he could miss a couple of weeks. TE Virgil Green left with a calf injury and he is day-to-day and Demarcus Ware broke a bone in his forearm and he is out 4-6 weeks.

7) The Broncos are 2-0 and when you looked at the schedule before the season, you had to be cautious to think that they would be 2-0 with Cam Newton and Andrew Luck coming to town in back-to-back weeks. Next week comes a big test: Their first road game of the season at Cincy. This will be a big test for young QB Trevor Siemian as he faces a really good defense on the road. With the defense that the Broncos bring to the table, they will have a chance in every game. Go Broncos!

Broncos-Colts Preview and Week 2 Picks

On paper the Broncos are a better team than the Colts. Outsider of Andrew Luck, the Broncos have a superior team. This has been the case for the past few seasons, but for some reason the Colts just seem to have their number. Luck is 3-1 against Denver since 2013. For that reason alone, I think this game is dangerous. I am worried about the hip injury to Demaryius Thomas, and you still can't trust or put all your faith in Trevor Siemian. This game looks so one-sided in the Broncos direction, but the Colts and Luck seem to be a thorn in their side. This game worries me.

Indy (+6) over DENVER

Final Score: Colts-24 Broncos-23

Last Week's Record: 8-8

Overall Record: 8-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+5) over DETROIT: Should the Lions be favored by 5 over anyone at this point? Give them credit for getting the win over the Colts last week after blowing the big lead. I like the Lions to win this game, but I think the Titans will make it a close game. The Titans need to start winning some games soon.

HOUSTON (-2) over Kansas City: You have to like what you saw out of Brock Osweiler last week in the win over Chicago. Houston looks like the odds on favorite in the AFC South. The Chiefs come in after a thrilling comeback win over the Chargers. Fun matchup between two 1-0 teams. I think the Texans exact revenge for last year's playoff loss.

Miami (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: My first upset pick of the week. The Pats surprised everyone by winning on the road at Arizona in Week 1 without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Everyone is on the Jimmy Garopolo bandwagon, but I think that the Dolphins will surprise them and play well. Just like in 2008 when they shocked them in Foxboro after Matt Cassel had an impressive debut with the Pats. I think the Fish pull the upset of the day.

CLEVELAND (+7) over Baltimore: The Ravens are winning this game, but I don't think they are winning by more than a touchdown on the road. Josh McCown starts for the injured RG III for the Browns, and that might be a positive for them.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincinnati: In a rematch of that wild, crazy Wild Card game from last year, the Steelers and Bengals meet once again here in Week 2.I liked what I saw from the Steelers and their offense on Monday night in their win over the Redskins. I was impressed how the Bengals fought back and beat the Jets in Jersey in Week 1. Fun game and one of the best of the weekend. I'll take the Steelers to win the game at home.

Dallas (+3) over WASHINGTON: Another fun rivalry game between two teams that are 0-1 after the first week. I think Dallas will be able to do enough to win a few games with Dak Prescott at QB. I didn't like anything that I saw out of the Redskins on MNF last week. I'll take the Cowboys to get the tough road win in DC.

New Orleans (+6) over NY GIANTS: This is one of those games that Eli Manning and the Giants blow at home. It has all the makings of an easy Giants win, but somehow they seem to screw these games up at home every year. I think the G-Men win the game, but I think Drew Brees will keep this game close and it will come down to the last possession.

CAROLINA (-13) over San Francisco: The 49ers played late Monday night, have to go across the country, and take on the Panthers in a 1:00 start on Sunday. That is a recipe for disaster.

Tampa Bay (+7) over ARIZONA: My second upset pick of the week. I like this Bucs team after what I saw in their Week 1 win over the Falcons. Now, they head to Arizona to take on a Cards team that is scratching their heads after losing that game to the Pats on SNF. I'm going with my gut on this one, and I like the Bucs to pull the upset on the road.

Seattle (-7) over LOS ANGELES: NFL football officially returns to LA for the first time since 1994. The fans of the LA Rams get the chance to see a team that got waxed 28-0 to the lowly 49ers in Week 1. In come the Seahawks, who survived a Week 1 scare to Miami, in a game that the Rams usually play well in. I could see the Rams playing inspired in front of the LA crowd, but the Seahawks will impose their will and win by more than a touchdown.

Atlanta (+6) over OAKLAND: The Raiders pulled of a wild win over the Saints in New Orleans after going for the two-point conversion late to win 35-34. The Falcons looked lifeless in falling behind 31-13 to Tampa Bay before making a comeback and falling short 31-24. I think this might be my third upset pick of the week. EVERYONE is picking the Raiders to roll this week, but I think Matt Ryan and the Falcons will find a way to get it done in the Black Hole.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Jacksonville: The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead in Arrowhead and lost to the Chiefs 33-27 in overtime. That game stings. The Jags played well but lost a close one to the Packers 27-23 at home last week. A battle of two 0-1 teams that don't want to start 0-2. I like the Chargers at home to get to 1-1.

Green Bay (-2) over MINNESOTA: Sam Bradford looks like he will start this week at home as the Vikings will debut their brand new stadium. The Vikings took care of business last week with Shaun Hill starting as they scored two defensive TDs to beat up on the Titans. The Packers won a close game at Jacksonville, and now head to Minnesota for SNF. I like the Packers and Aaron Rodgers in this one, and I look for them to win and start the year 2-0.

CHICAGO (-3) over Philadelphia: Carson Wentz looked really good in his debut last week against the Browns. The Eagles now head to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Bears were outclassed last week in Houston in the loss to the Texans, but they played well for a while. I think that the Bears will take care of business at home on Monday Night Football.