Bears-Packers Week 7 TNF Pick

GREEN BAY (-7) over Chicago: How many fans in Chicago are going to be into this game with the 1-5 Bears heading to Green Bay, while the Cubs and Dodgers battle it out in a pivotal Game 5 in Los Angeles tonight? Another week and another tough one for Thursday Night Football. Give me the Packers to get on track tonight at home.

NFL Week 6 Picks!

Here are the picks for Week 6.....

Last Week's Record: 10-1-2
Overall Record: 43-29-4
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

San Fran (+8) over BUFFALO: The Bills are 3-2 and now have turned their season around. They host the 49ers, who at 1-4 turn to Colin Kaepernick in his first start of the year. I would expect the Bills to win, but I can't trust them laying 8 points to anyone just yet.

Philly (-3) over WASHINGTON: This is a fun game in the NFC East. The Redskins are now 3-2 after starting the year 0-2. The Eagles come in at 3-1 after a bad loss at Detroit last week. I think this will be a fun game to watch. Look for the Eagles to get out of DC with a big road win.

Cleveland (+7) over TENNESSEE: I think the Titans can actually make something out of their season. They are 2-3, and have been competitive for the most part. In come the Browns are 0-5. They have been competitive as well this year despite their record. I think this game will be pretty close, but look for the Titans to pull it out.

Cincy (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The Pats will win in Tom Brady's 2016 home debut, but I think the Bengals will be in this game and make the Pats sweat it out. This could be a fun game, and the Bengals at 2-3 are a little desperate in this spot.

Baltimore (+3) over NY GIANTS: The Ravens are 3-2 and just fired their offensive coordinator, Marc Trestman. After two straight losses at home, they now head to the Meadowlands to take on the 2-3 Giants. I'm taking the Ravens because I trust them just a little more than I trust Bob McAdoo and his Giants at this point. 

Carolina (-1) over NEW ORLEANS: Cam Newton is back and the Panthers are in desperate need of a win at 1-4. They have to go into New Orleans and beat the Saints. I'll take the Panthers to win this game because I think they have to, but if they lose, then they are done for the year.

Pittsburgh (-7) over MIAMI: The Steelers are the second best team in the AFC behind the Pats and now stand at 4-1. The Dolphins are up to their usual tricks in their 1-4 start. I don't see how the Dolphins can keep this one close-even at home.

CHICAGO (-2) over Jacksonville: I have no idea how this game will play out, so I'll take the Brian Hoyer-led Bears at home.

DETROIT (-3) over Los Angeles: I think the Lions will get to 3-3 after taking down the Rams at home. It will be tough to envision how the Rams will win this game on the road with their offense.

OAKLAND (PICK) over Kansas City: Big game in the AFC West. The Raiders are 4-1 and looking to extend their lead in the division. The Chiefs are 2-2 and are looking to get the big win on the road. I am a little concerned that this week the Raiders all but punched their intentions to move to Las Vegas, but I think they will take care of business at home against the Chiefs.

Atlanta (+7) over SEATTLE: You had to be very impressed with the way the Falcons handled Denver on the road last week to get to 4-1. This is a very interesting game and big one in the NFC. How will the Falcons handle this one on the road? Look for a Seattle win, but I like the Falcons to keep it close.

Dallas (+4) over GREEN BAY: Another good NFC game in the late window on Sunday. Something just seems off about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this year-actually going back to last year. I don't think they will be able to just roll over the Cowboys at home this week. Look for a close game, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Cowboys and Dak Prescott pull it out late.

HOUSTON (-3) over Indy: The Texans beat the teams that are crappy. At 3-2, that has been the story of their season so far. The Colts are not a very good team outside of Andrew Luck. Look for the Texans to jump on the Colts early and win this division game at home to get to 4-2.

ARIZONA (-7) over NY Jets: The Cards are 2-3 and they are taking on the 1-4 Jets on Monday Night Football. The Jets come in banged up and reeling. The Cards get Carson Palmer back from a concussion this week. I can't see the Cardinals losing this week at home on MNF.

Broncos Fall Flat to Chargers 21-13, Drop to 4-2

The Broncos headed to San Diego on Thursday night looking for a chance to get back on track after suffering a loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday. In a span of four days, the Broncos found themselves on the losing side once again. In one of the most disappointing and frustrating games in recent memory, the Chargers beat the Broncos 21-13 to send Denver to 4-2 and their first road loss in the AFC West since 2011. The Broncos now have to deal with some major issues going forward. It was a game that was similar to how the Falcons game played out in Week 5, and that is a problem because now it looks like it could be a harbinger of things to come down the road for this Broncos team. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game....

1) It was another horrible start for the Denver defense on the first two drives for the second straight week. They gave up a lot of big throws to Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense, and both drives were long and ate up a lot of clock, and the next thing you know the Broncos were down 10-0 once again. This week TE Hunter Henry gashed the middle of Broncos defense like the Falcons did with their RBs last week. The Chargers had the Broncos defense off balance for most of the first half. The Broncos have to find a way to make stops early in the game and avoid these deficits right off the bat.

2) The offense was terrible all night. It was a very bad omen when the Broncos got a huge break. After recovering a muffed punt at the SD 11, the Broncos only settled for a field goal to make it 10-3 in the second quarter. They got the turnover they needed, and yet they couldn't go 11 yards to get a touchdown. That was a very key sequence.

3) The defense did settle down and played well from the 2nd quarter on. Von Miller was really good in the run game. I thought the defense held on the best that they could. They held the Chargers to only 3 field goals the rest of the way after the tough start. Give them credit on a night where there were a lot of bad performances.

4) The offense couldn't run the ball once again. The offensive line struggled once again. The Broncos had no room to run at all until late in the game and when Devontae Booker was running the ball. Trevor Siemian was 30-50 for only 230 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. He was not good at all in this game. He only completed 1 pass completion over 10 yards. He took too many underneath throws and that might be because of the lack of protection and time from the offensive line or he that he doesn't have the ability to drive the ball downfield and take chances. It was like the Chargers were just not afraid of him beating him deep, and this is a Chargers defense that lost both starting corners earlier in the year. It was just some bad offensive football for most of the night. They scored three time and two of those scores came after the Chargers muffed kicks. That is not good at all.

5) The Broncos made a lot of errors and mistakes all night long. They made some really critical mistakes in the second half. They had a fumble by Jordan Taylor in the 3rd quarter, a missed 56 yard field goal, a safety on a holding call in the endzone, a holding call nullifying a touchdown, and a fumble by Demaryius Thomas.

6) As bad as the game was, the Broncos had an amazing C.J. Anderson touchdown catch and run to make it 21-16 with over 4 minutes to go and three timeouts left. The holding call by Russell Okung brought it back. A few plays later, Thomas fumbled and that effectively ended the game. It would have been really interesting to see what would have happened if Anderson's TD counted.

7) The Broncos did have some great special teams plays to give them a shot. They perfectly executed a pooch kick on the free kick following the safety that made it 21-3 in the 4th quarter. By kicking it short, the Chargers had to have a lineman try to catch it, but it was bobbled and the Broncos recovered. The Broncos also converted an onside kick late to give them a chance at 21-13. At least the Broncos can take that positive from the game.

7) At 4-2 the sky is not falling, but there are a lot of concerns. This was a game that had a lot of built-in excuses if they lost. It was a short week against a team that was due for a big win, and Gary Kubiak was not coaching this week. With that said, this is the team that I thought the Broncos would be before the year. I think their 4-0 start had a bit of a mirage to it. I know every NFL season has ups and downs, and it can change week-to-week, but this feels a little different. The Broncos now have 11 days off to come back and get ready for a home game on Monday night October 24th against the Texans in the "Brock Osweiler" Bowl. There is a lot of time to try to fix what they can, and get a much-needed win over Houston next week.

Broncos-Chargers Week 6 TNF Pick

The Broncos head to San Diego on a short week to take on the 1-4 Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Denver comes in at 4-1 after last week's loss at home to the Falcons. The Chargers lost another brutal game at Oakland when their holder botched the ball on a potential tying field goal with only a few minutes left. This game will be tough for Denver for the following reasons:

-Gary Kubiak is not coaching this week due to the complex migraine issue he had on Sunday. Joe DeCamilis will take his place as interim HC. That is certainly not an ideal situation especially in a short week.

-The Broncos have to travel to San Diego on a short week and don't get the luxury of hosting the game.

-The Broncos have won five straight games at San Diego. You know they are due for a loss in this building.

-The Chargers are due for a win because although they are 1-4, they have been in every game this year. You could see them breaking out and getting the win this week.

-This will not be an easy game for the Broncos and I expect them to have a tough time putting the Chargers away considering the fact that Phillip Rivers is playing at a high level once again.

SAN DIEGO (+3) over Denver
Final Score: Chargers-27 Broncos-17

Falcons Outplay Broncos 23-16 as Denver Falls to 4-1

The Falcons came to Denver on Sunday and took down the previously undefeated Broncos 23-16 to give the Broncos their first loss of the season. The Falcons and their high-powered offense came in at 3-1 and it was going to be fascinating to see how that group would match up against the Broncos defense. The Broncos defense did well containing Julio Jones, but the Falcons exploited the Denver defense by using their backs out of the backfield on the Broncos linebackers. Both Todd Davis and Brandon Marshall had trouble with Tevin Coleman and Dovanta Freeman. The Broncos never adjusted and they couldn't stop it. Then, to compound the problems, Paxton Lynch struggled in his first career NFL start. The offensive line couldn't protect for Lynch, and the Broncos had trouble moving the ball all day. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game...

1) It started early in the 1st quarter and it continued throughout the game, and Atlanta killed the Broncos by using their backs out of the backfield in the passing game. Coleman and Freeman killed the Broncos linebackers all day. Coleman ended up with 4 catches with 132 yards and a TD, and Freeman added 3 catches for 35 yards. I don't think it is a blueprint for beating the Broncos defense every week, but it is certainly a cause for concern. I also was surprised that the Broncos had no answer for that and couldn't adjust.

2) The Broncos offense struggled to block the Falcons pass rush. Ty Sambraillo started at RT and he got abused by Vic Beasley all game long. Beasley had 4 sacks on the day, and the entire Falcons defense got 6 sacks overall and just harassed Paxton Lynch all game long. They also shut down the Broncos running game. I know that Sambraillo might not be healthy enough to play RT, and the Broncos need Donald Stephenson to come back soon from injury, but give the Falcons defense credit for getting after the Broncos offense all game long/

3) It was a rough day for Paxton Lynch in first career start. He didn't get help from his offensive line, but he was inaccurate early and he held onto the ball too long, but it was his first career start, and you can't expect him to light it up right away. I still think that Lynch will be a good QB, and I still believe that he is the future at that position, but with any rookie, you have to expect some rough moments and this past week was one of those days.

4) I'm still surprised that Wade Phillips and the Broncos defense made no adjustments as the game went on. A game like this exposes the fact that the team misses a guy like Danny Trevathan. I would expect that Phillips would be able to figure something out, but he was never able to find the answer.

5) Everything about this game was just weird. The Broncos started slow, fell behind 10-0, and the it just seemed like they couldn't get back into the game. It sucks that they lost at home in this fashion, but it seemed like something was off the entire game. It was like they were sleepwalking through most of the game, and expected that they would find a way to win the game late, but it just never materialized.

6) The key turning points and sequences were when the Broncos were backed up at their own 1 yard line in the third quarter. Lynch threw a play action pass out of the endzone and he threw a pick into double coverage. A few plays later, Matt Ryan hit Coleman on a 31 yard TD pass on a 2nd and 19 to give the Falcons a 20-3 lead halfway through the 3rd quarter. It was a backbreaker and effectively ended the game. Also, at the end of the 3rd quarter, T. J. Ward made a great play to strip the ball away from the receiver at midfield to give the Broncos a much-needed turnover, but the Broncos could only muster a field goal to make it 20-6. That was an opportunity that was missed by the Broncos.

7) After the loss, the news for the Broncos got worse with the news that Gary Kubiak had to go to the hospital. He was diagnosed with complex migraine syndrome, and he will be out for this Thursday's game at San Diego. Joe DeCamilis will be the interim HC and it is expected that Kubiak will rejoin the team next week. The Broncos suffered a very disappointing loss at home to the Falcons, but they will have to regroup quick with a key division road game at San Diego on a short week. At 4-1, all is not lost for the Broncos, but it is amazing how the NFL is a week-to-week league. So much can change in a week's time, and the Broncos need to get a win at SD on Thursday night, and use the 11 days off to get ready for the Texans on Monday night October 24th.

Broncos-Falcons Preview and Week 5 Picks!

The 4-0 Broncos host the 3-1 Falcons in a game that has suddenly become one of the marquee games of the weekend this Sunday. The game is exciting because it matches the Broncos great defense going up against the high-powered offense of the Falcons. If you are looking for a reference on good defense going up against a good offense, then look no further than Super Bowl 50 when the Broncos historic defense shut down the Panthers and their top flight offense. This Falcons team is different because they have an offense that can sling it. Matt Ryan is playing the best ball in a long time, and Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are explosive players. It will be a fun matchup and I'm looking forward to the challenge for this Broncos defense. The Broncos are also not sure if QB Trevor Siemian will start the game due to last week's shoulder injury. If he can't go, then Paxton Lynch gets the nod. I think this will be a close game, and I think the Falcons will have some success, but in traditional Broncos fashion, I think this game comes down to the end and the Broncos defense will be able to hold off the Falcons late.

Atlanta (+5) over DENVER
Final Score: Broncos-26 Falcons-24

Now, onto the picks for Week 5....

Last Week's Record: 5-10
Overall Record: 33-28-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

MINNESOTA (-6) over Houston: The Vikings are 4-0 and they look like the best team in the NFC right now. They throttled the Giants last Monday night, and now the 3-1 Texans come into Minnesota this week. The Texans are that team that beats up on the weak teams, but can't beat a good team-especially on the road. I like the matchup with the Vikings defense going up against Brock Osweiler.

Tennessee (+4) over MIAMI: The Dolphins could be in flux in this game with Hurricane Matthew bearing down on Florida. In any event, do you have any confidence in the 1-3 Dolphins. The Titans come in at 1-3, but they almost pulled out victories the last two weeks against the Raiders and the Texans. I think this is a three point game either way.

New England (-9) over CLEVELAND: This one is pretty simple: Tom Brady is back from his four game suspension, and he returns to take on the 0-4 Browns. Take the Pats and lay the points.

NY Jets (+9.5) over PITTSBURGH: I figured that either the Steelers or the Vikings won't cover their spread at home this week. I think this game will be closer than people think. I know that Revis might not play, but I can see the Jets getting to Ben Roethlisberger with their front. I think the Steelers will be able to exploit the secondary of the Jets, but I could see Gang Green keeping this game closer than people think.

Washington (+4) over BALTIMORE: The Ravens suffered a crushing loss at home to the Raiders last week to fall to 3-1. The Redskins got to 2-2 with a home win over the Browns. The 2016 "Battle of the Beltway" has a chance to be a good game. I think the Ravens will win, but I think it is close and will come down to a field goal at the end.

DETROIT (+4) over Philly: I might be the only person left in America that isn't buying into the Eagles just yet. I think they are improved from last year, and I like what I saw from Carson Wentz, but I can't go crazy about them at this point. The Lions come in at 1-3 and looked awful last week at Chicago. I can see them playing a solid game at home this week and pulling the upset.

INDY(-4) over Chicago: This is the time for the Colts to somehow right the ship. They are 1-3 coming off a tough loss to the Jags in London, and now they return home to take on the 1-3 Bears. How many times in Andrew Luck's career have the Colts been down by 10 or more points in the second half of games. It seems like that is the case every week. I think the Colts will win this game because if they don't and they fall to 1-4, it could get ugly in Indianapolis.

Buffalo (+3) over LOS ANGELES: What a weird game this has turned out to be. The Rams are somehow 3-1 with one of the worst offenses in the league. The Bills are 2-2 after starting the year at 0-2. This is a hard game to call, but I think I'll go with the Bills on the road. This seems like a 17-13 game either way, and I think the Bills will find a way to win.

OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego: The Chargers are 1-3 and they have led every game at the 2:00 warning. The way they lost last week's game to the Saints was just awful. The problem for the Chargers is that they are getting killed with injuries each week. I have a tough time thinking they will be able to hold off the Raiders in the Black Hole on Sunday. The Raiders come in at 3-1 after three road wins in their first four games. Look for the Raiders to get to 4-1 and take care of business at home over the Bolts.

DALLAS (+1) over Cincy: The Cowboys are off to a 3-1 start thanks to the play of QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot. The Bengals come to Dallas at 2-2 and have had 10 days off thanks to a Thursday night win over Miami in Week 4. I like this game a lot and I think it will be a fun game to watch. I think the Cowboys will get to 4-1 in a close, hard-fought victory.

GREEN BAY (-7) over NY Giants: I don't like anything I have seen out of the Giants the last two weeks. Now, they head to Lambeau to take on the 2-1 Packers, who are coming off their bye week. I think the G-Men are running into a buzzsaw on Sunday night. I don't have a lot of confidence that they can win this game or even keep it close.

Tampa Bay (+5) over CAROLINA: Cam Newton's status is uncertain due to the concussion he suffered in last Sunday's loss to the Falcons. At 1-3, the Panthers are struggling, but this could be the game that gets them back on track. Jameis Winston has really struggled the last three weeks, and I think his struggles will continue this week. I just don't think the Bucs are a good team at this point in the year.

Week 5 TNF Pick

Arizona (PICK) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Cardinals are without Carson Palmer, so we have Drew Stanton going up against Blaine Gabbert on Thursday Night Football. I don't think that matchup will help the sagging NFL ratings. I'll take the 1-3 Cards over the 1-3 Niners in this snoozefest.