Week 13 TNF Pick

Dallas (-4) over NEW ORLEANS

Broncos Take Down Chargers, Improve to 6-5

 The Broncos entered Sunday's home game against the 6-4 Chargers as an underdog, but they left with a victory and a 6-5 record as they head into December. The Broncos controlled the Chargers 28-13 to record their sixth victory, put them back above .500, and have a chance to make a run at the playoffs down the stretch of the season. Here are my thoughts on the game....

1) The Broncos defense was the story in this game. They played very well. They got a pass rush consistently on Justin Herbert and registered three sacks, countless hurries, and two big interceptions. I thought Baron Browning played really well and was all over the field.

2) Patrick Surtain II continues to look like a stud first round pick for Denver. He intercepted Herbert  in the end zone with the Broncos up 14-7 in the fourth quarter, and he later added a 70 interception return TD later in the quarter to put the game away for good. Surtain has played really well this season, and this was his signature game.

3) The Broncos offense was okay for the time that Teddy Bridgewater was in at QB. They were up 7-0 and moving the ball when Bridgewater was blindsided by Derwin James and suffered a bruised leg that made him miss a few series. Drew Lock came in a led a scoring drive which was aided by the run game to make it 14-0. Denver was controlling the game until Lock threw a terrible interception right before the half. LA capitalized to make it 14-7. The Broncos had really dominated up until that point. After only running three plays in the third quarter, Bridgewater led the Broncos on a drive when they needed it most. Up 14-7 in the 4th quarter, Denver moved the ball right down the field and they put it into the endzone with a Bridgewater to Eric Saubert TD pass to make it 21-7. You can say what you want about Bridgewater, but he is the best option for this team at QB, and he has been the best option for this team at QB since Peyton Manning retired. 

4) Give Vic Fangio credit. He has his team ready. The defense played way better this week than they did two weeks ago in the loss to the Eagles. When Bridgewater was in at QB, the offense moved the ball consistently, and the running attack was once again headed by both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, who continues to impress. Denver controlled most of the game and dominated it in most facets. This was a very solid win.

5) The Broncos are 6-5 and heading to KC next week to play the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. This is exactly what you want: Meaningful football games in December. Consider this: Last year at this time, Denver was coming off that loss to New Orleans when Kendall Hinton had to start at QB after all of the QBs were out due to Covid protocols. At 4-7, the season was basically over. It will be a tall order to go into Arrowhead and knock off the Chiefs, but it will be fun to get excited about the Broncos biggest December game since 2016. 

Broncos-Chargers and Week 12 Picks

The Broncos had a bye last week, and at 5-5 they are still in the hunt for a wild card spot in the AFC as they begin the home stretch of their season. You would think that coming off a bye at home that the Broncos would play well and have a really good chance of beating the Chargers. Unfortunately, the Broncos have not been consistent at all this season. This week they have to somehow find a way to stop Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense. I can't see Denver slowing Herbert down and I can't see them matching score for score with LA. Look for another disappointing outcome at home for the Broncos. 

Prediction: Chargers (-3) over DENVER

Final Score: Chargers-41 Broncos-17

Last Week's Record: 6-8-1

Overall Record: : 79-76-9

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

Now, onto the picks for Week 12........

Tampa Bay (-2) over INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts are 5-5 after a big win over the Bills last week. The Bucs are 7-3 and in control of the NFC South. Big game for both teams, but I like the Bucs to win this won on the road.

Philadelphia (-4) over GIANTs: The Giants are 3-7 and fired Jason Garrett, their offensive coordinator this week, and they host the surging Eagles, who are 5-6. I see Philly continuing their winning ways and evening their record at 6-6.

Carolina (-1) over MIAMI: At 5-6, the Panthers are still in the mix for a wild card spot in the NFC. Cam Newton coming back has given them a boost. The Dolphins are 4-7 and have won three straight. I think the Panthers find a way to win this game and get to 6-6.

Pittsburgh (+5) over CINCINNATI: The Bengals are 6-4 after a big road win in Vegas last week. The Steelers are 5-4-1 after a tough loss to Chargers in LA. The Bengals won the first meeting in Pittsburgh earlier in the year, and I think they sweep the season series with a win at home this week.

Tennessee (+6) over NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots are 7-4 and winners of five straight. Now, everyone is back on the Patriots bandwagon, and everyone is back to kissing Bill Belichick and his rings. The Titans head to Foxboro with an 8-3 record, but lost a bad game to Houston last week. I think this will be close. I don't know if Tennessee wins, but I think it is close.

JACKSONVILLE (PICK) over Atlanta: I'll take the Jags at home in a game that isn't very watchable.

Jets (+3) over HOUSTON: I'll take the Jets on the road and the points in another unwatchable game.

GREEN BAY (-1) over Rams: I like the Packers to rebound from last week's loss to the Vikings, and I think they will respond here with a win at home over the Rams. Big game for both teams, who will be in the playoffs in the NFC.

Minnesota (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Vikings have life again and at 5-5, they are right in the middle of the wild card picture. The Niners are now 5-5 and have revived their season as well. This is such a huge game for both teams. I like the Vikings ever so slightly. 

BALTIMORE (-3) over Cleveland: The Browns are 6-5 but they barely beat the Lions last week. Baker Mayfield is beat up and 

Seattle (-1) over WASHINGTON: The Seahawks are having a down year at 3-7, and this could be the end of their run. Washington is 4-6, so they are not out of it in the NFC. I think Seattle gets to 4-7 with a win on Monday Night Football. 

Thanksgiving Day Picks

 DETROIT (+3) over Chicago

Las Vegas (+7) over DALLAS

Buffalo (-4) over NEW ORLEANS

Week 11 Picks

With the Broncos on a bye, here are the picks for Week 11...

Last Week's Record: 7-7-0

Overall Record: 73-68-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

New Orleans (+2) over PHILADELPHIA: The Saints head to Philly with a 5-4 record and are looking to get back on track after two straight losses. The Eagles come off a win over Denver to improve to 4-6. I'm still not sold on the Eagles, so I'll take the Saints to bounce back with a win here.

Miami (-3) over JETS: No one cares about this game.

CAROLINA (-3) over Washington: Cam Newton is on track to start and face off against his old coach, Ron Rivera. At 5-5, Carolina is in the mix in the NFC Wild Card race. Look for them to continue their winning ways at home over WFT.

Indianapolis (+7) over BUFFALO: At 5-5, the Colts are in the mix for the Wild Card in the AFC. The Bills are 6-3 and holding off the Pats in the AFC East. I think Buffalo wins but Indy keeps it close. 

CLEVELAND (-10) over Detroit: The Browns will bounce back from their blowout loss to the Pats last week, and I think they will take care of business over the Lions at home. 

San Francisco (-6) over JACKSONVILLE: The Niners improved to 4-5 with a big win over the Rams last week. They will get to 5-5 with a road win over the 2-7 Jaguars.

CHICAGO (+6) over Baltimore: The Bears desperately need a win at 3-6 to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. The Ravens are 6-3 and looking to bounce back after a bad loss to Miami last week. I think the Ravens pull it off, but it will be close.

TENNESSEE (-10) over Houston: The Titans are 8-2 and lead the entire AFC. They won't lose ground here with an easy win over Houston at home.

Green Bay (-2) over MINNESOTA: The Packers are 8-2 and head to Minnesota to take on the 4-5 Vikings. This is a huge game for Minnesota and I think it will come down to the end, but I think the Packers will pull it out late.

LAS VEGAS (+1) over Cincinnati: Two 5-4 teams face off in a huge AFC game. I think it is a little surprising that the Raiders are underdogs at home here. I think they will play a solid game and beat the Bengals in Vegas.

SEATTLE (+3) over Arizona: The Cardinals might get Kyler Murray back for this one but at 8-2, they are in solid ground to make the playoffs in the NFC. The Seahawks are 3-6, and are the more desperate team. I think Seattle will use that as motivation to get a much needed win.

KANSAS CITY (-2) over Dallas: The Chiefs are 6-4 and in first place in the AFC West. After struggling for most of the year, Pat Mahomes put on a show last week over the Raiders. Dallas comes in at 7-2, so this should be a marquee game of the day. Look for KC to be too much at home.

CHARGERS (-4) over Pittsburgh: At 5-4, the Chargers need this win to keep pace in the AFC. The Steelers are 5-3-1. This is a huge game on SNF. Look for the Chargers to get the win at home.

TAMPA BAY (-10) over Giants: Monday Night Football features Tom Brady and the Bucs hosting the 3-6 Giants. The Bucs are 6-3 after losing two straight. I can't see them losing three in a row, so I'll take them in a blowout win over the G-Men. 

Week 11 TNF Pick

 ATLANTA (+7) over New England

Broncos Get Beat Down by Eagles at Home, Fall to 5-5

 The Broncos entered Sunday's game at home against the 3-6 Eagles flying high with a big road win over Dallas the week before and a 5-4 record. It looked like the perfect scenario for them to get to 6-4 heading into their bye week. Unfortunately, the Broncos did not show up and they paid the price with a 30-13 defeat at the hands of the Eagles. The loss is a big one as Denver falls to 5-5 heading into their bye week. It was definitely a missed opportunity and further questions where this team is actually headed this season. Here are my thoughts on the game...

1) Pat Shurmur tested positive for Covid on Friday so he didn't call the plays on Sunday. Instead, Mike Shula took over the play-calling. Whatever the case was, Shula didn't do a good job at all. It was not pretty on offense at all.

2) The Broncos injuries have piled up each week and being without three starting offensive linemen did not help their offense one bit.

3) The Broncos defense also got shredded in the run game and in the passing game by Philly. I didn't think Jalen Hurts would dice the Broncos defense up like he did. Just a disappointing performance all around.

4) Denver's redzone opportunities killed them in this game. They had a 22 yard field goal blocked, they had a touchdown called back, and they fumbled on a 4th and 1 late in the third quarter. All three plays were pivotal.

5) The play that got the most attention-and for good reason- was the fumble return by Darius Slay at the end of the 3rd quarter. After Melvin Gordon fumbled on a 4th and 1 play, Slay picked up and ran around and through the Broncos all the way for a 87 yard fumbled return to make it 27-13 Philly. The key moment on the play was Teddy Bridgewater didn't even attempt to tackle Slay as he raced passed him. Teddy did absolutely nothing which is just so bad on every level. It was the signature play of the game and could be the signature play for Bridgewater this year.

6) This is another bad home loss for the Broncos. It is their third home loss this year, and all three were by double digits. They have suffered eight double digit home losses in the Vic Fangio era. The Broncos are 4-9 in their last 13 home games, which is very disturbing to say the least. They are also 1-20 when trailing at halftime under Fangio. That all adds up to a team that looks like it is going nowhere and will have massive changes on the coaching staff after the season. 

7) Just a disappointing day all around for the Broncos. Just when you got excited about them again this season, they give a performance like this and bring you right back down.