Sunday, February 18, 2018

Broncos Winter Mailbag

It is mid-February and the Super Bowl was over two weeks ago, and there is still a few weeks until the Combine, and about a month away from Free Agency. It is a dead time for a NFL fan, so I like to fire up the mailbag and provide a little snapshot of some of the questions that remain as we head into the end of the winter and the beginning of the offseason in the NFL. Here we go....

What is the Broncos focus at QB? Are they getting Kirk Cousins?
It is obvious that the Broncos are going to make a run at Kirk Cousins. He is their #1 choice for their next QB. The problem is that Denver probably won't be able to give him the money that teams like the Jets, Browns, or even the Vikings can give him. So, Cousins has to decide about taking more money from two perennial losing franchises (Browns and Jets), taking less to go to a better organization, tradition of winning, and a team that is a QB away from getting back into the playoff mix (Denver), or taking a little less to take a very good team over the top (Vikings). I think Denver has about as good as a shot as any of those teams to get Cousins, and many people think they are the favorites, but I have a feeling they will fall short and have to settle for Plan B at QB.

So what the hell is Plan B if we don't get Cousins?
I can see a scenario where Cousins goes to Minnesota, and the Broncos settle for Case Keenum and they select a QB with the #5 pick overall. I could also see Tyrod Taylor coming to Denver and they also select a QB with the #5 pick.

What is the fate of Emmanuel Sanders, Aqib Talib, and C.J. Anderson?
I think all three are on the trading block, but I think I could see Sanders returning-especially if they land Cousins. I think Talib could be a restructure situation, but I have a feeling he is going to get traded or released. I think there is no doubt that Anderson will be let go, and the Broncos will look into free agency or the draft for another RB.

Who should get extended before free agency gets going?
The number one move I would make is to lock up Shaq Barrett to an extension and keep him her for a long time. I know he is a restricted free agent, but I wouldn't take the chance. I would get Barrett locked up as soon as they can.

Do you think the Broncos will make a move and trade up in the draft before free agency?
It is too early to tell. You have to wait to the combine to see what will happen, but if the Broncos get a sense that they can't get Cousins and they need to go get either Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or Baker Mayfield, they might try to see if the Giants or Colts would trade down to #5 and see if they can get into the top 3.

Lastly, how accurate were your 2017 NFL predictions?
Back in August, I made my predictions for the season. I had Denver going 7-9 and they ended up worse at 5-11. In the AFC, I correctly predicted New England, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee to make the playoffs. I had Baltimore, Cincy, and Oakland as the other three teams, and I would have had Baltimore had they not blown that game at home to Cincy in Week 17. In the NFC, I correctly predicted Philly, Carolina, and Minnesota. I missed on Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone didn't help), Tampa Bay (Severely underachieved), and Seattle (No one saw that coming). In total, I had 6 out of the 12 teams in the playoffs with my predictions. I did have Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game, and I did pick New England to make the Super Bowl and lose, but that really isn't going out on a limb.






Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Super Bowl LII Recap and Reaction!

The Philadelphia Eagles finally broke through their championship drought and won their first Lombardi Trophy by defeating the New England Patriots in a wild 41-33 shootout in Super Bowl LII. The game set the record for most yards ever in a NFL game! Both defenses could not contain the other offense and in the end, the Eagles held off the Pats and are now hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The game was a very good game and fun one-especially if you like offense. Nick Foles won the MVP after another masterful performance, and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick suffer their third defeat in a Super Bowl, but not after Brady passed for a Super Bowl record 505 yards. Here is my reaction and my takeaways from the game....

1) Both offenses couldn't be stopped but I was shocked at how easy the Eagles were able to convert first downs on third down. They moved the ball at will in taking the 9-3 lead on the Foles to Alshon Jeffrey 34 yard touchdown pass, and then LaGarrette Blount broke a 21 yard TD run to make it 15-3. I don't know why Doug Pederson went for two there but in the end it didn't matter. You could feel from the beginning that the Pats had no answer for the Eagles offense.

2) The key sequence in the game and in the first half was when on a 3rd and 5 at the Philly 35 in the 2nd quarter, the Pats ran a trick play and Dannly Amendola took a reverse and threw a pass to a wide open Tom Brady, but the ball just slipped off his fingers and it was incomplete. The Pats went for it on 4th down and Brady's pass was incomplete to Rob Gronkowski and the Pats turned the ball over on downs. The Eagles came down and Blount's TD run was on the ensuing drive to make it 15-3. I had a feeling there that the Eagles weren't going away in this one.

4) The Pats got back into the game when they got a FG on the next possession to make it 15-6, and they were lucky to benefit from a tipped interception in their own end on the next possession and then Brady took them 90 yards and a James White 26 yard TD run made it 15-12 after a missed extra point by Gostkowski. Now, you knew we were in for a treat of a game.

5) Philly answered with the play of the game. After driving down to the Pats 1 yard line, they were faced with a 4th and goal. Doug Pederson, who coached a great game, decided to go for it and they ran a direct snap to the RB who pitched it to Trey Burton on a reverse and he threw it to a wide open Foles for a touchdown. It was a great trick play, and it really stuck it to the Pats and it extended the lead to 22-12 going into halftime.

6) Once the second half started it was all offense and the shootout was on. The Patriots made their adjustments and scored TDs on their first three possessions of the second half. The Eagles went touchdown, field goal, touchdown, field goal in their four possessions. Both defenses couldn't do a thing to get off the field until the end. Brady went 28-48 for 505 yards with 3 TDs and 0 Int. Foles went 28-43 for 373 yards with 3 TDs and 1 fluky INT. The Pats had 613 total yards and the Eagles had 538 total yards for a combined 1,151 yards and a NFL record. It will go down as one of the greatest offensive games of all time.

7) It was like a tennis match and someone had to break serve to win. The Pats made it 22-19 on a Brady to Gronk 5 yard pass, Philly responded with a Foles to Corey Clement 22 yard bullet to make it 29-19, Brady hit Chris Hogan for a 26 yard TD on a post route to make it 29-26, Philly got a 42 yard field goal to make it 32-26, NE finally grabbed the lead on Brady to Gronk 4 yard pass to make it 33-32 with over 9 minutes left in the game. Philly came back and Foles hit Zack Ertz with a 11 yard TD pass to make it 38-33 with the two-point conversion failing. Then, finally the Eagles strip sacked Brady on the next drive on second down and they recovered and kicked the field goal to give them an eight point lead 41-33. It was remarkable the way the two teams traded scores in the second half-in the Super Bowl no less.

8) Here is the sequence that will forever live in the minds of Eagles fans and football fans everywhere when they talk about this Super Bowl. Philly is down 33-32 and they have the ball at their own 45 yard line facing a 4th and 1 with 5:39 seconds to go in the game. Normally, teams will punt the ball back to the Pats. Philly hadn't stopped Brady and NE the entire second half, so they Doug Pederson decides to go for it. Foles completes it to Ertz for 2 yards and a first down to keep the drive alive. Philly eventually goes down and scores the TD to Ertz and takes the lead 38-33. That was a ballsy call by Pederson and I give him credit because if that doesn't work out, then Brady has the ball at the Philly 45 up 33-32 and a touchdown there makes it a 40-32 game. Great, gutsy call by Pederson and his ability to decide to go for it won the Eagles the game.

9) When Brady got the ball back down 38-33 with 2:21 to play, I kept thinking about how this is going to be amazing. The Eagles are two minutes away from their first ever Super Bowl title, and they have to stop Tom Brady and the Pats in the closing moments to do it. That is what sports is all about. Sure enough it took only two plays, and Brandon Graham strip sacked Brady and Derek Barnett recovered and it essentially won them the game. Phenomenal moment and sequence there at the end of Super Bowl LII.

10) The one thing I will say about the final series is that although were down 41-33 with only 58 seconds left and they had to 91 yards to tie the game, the fact that the Pats go the ball to midfield to even try a Hail Mary at the end is absolutely remarkable. Even though it fell short and was deflected away, it just showed that you really have to cut the Pats heads to finally kill them in these games. It just showed you why the Pats are the Pats.

11) Nick Foles gets the MVP and he played unbelievable. He deserved it and he made great throw after great throw. It is amazing that he was able to play so well in the playoffs and his story is one of the most remarkable ones in Super Bowl history.

12) Doug Pederson could have been the game's MVP. He called a great game, was decisive in his decisions, and he made gutsy calls-something that a lot of coaches wouldn't do against the Pats on that stage. Pederson showed this year to be a top-flight coach, and he won a Super Bowl after losing his MVP QB in December, and he found a way to get the Eagles over the top.

13) The city of Philadelphia gets their first Super Bowl trophy and it is well deserved. They were underdogs in all three playoff games, including two at home. They slayed the Patriots and their fans can finally celebrate a Lombardi Trophy. At some point, everyone is bound to eventually win a title. Philly got their moment.

14) The Eagles are interesting case study for other struggling teams in the NFL. Two years ago, they were in disarray. They fired Chip Kelly before the end of the 2015 season, there was a power struggle in the front office, and they were ridiculed for signing Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, and then moving up all those picks to select Carson Wentz in the draft that year. Last year, they go 7-9 and then all of a sudden this year, they go 13-3 and win the Super Bowl. Pretty amazing jump in just two years. Also, they have a very solid core of players signed through the next few years and they have an emerging star in Wentz with a solid backup in Foles, and the are coming off a Super Bowl title. They could be the next dynasty in the NFL.

15) Lastly, we get to the Pats. I don't think that this loss does anything to their legacy. 5-3 in Super Bowls is pretty impressive in the Brady and Belichick era. They got beat by a better team on this night. They have put together the greatest run and dynasty in NFL history going back to 2001. The only thing that could make this game sting long term is if this is the last Super Bowl and last shot for Brady and Belichick together. I think both are coming back next year, and I'm sure they will make a run again, but if they never get back to another Super Bowl or don't win another one together, then this could be a tough moment for Pats fans to realize how close they were to their sixth Super Bowl title.

Friday, February 2, 2018

Patriots-Eagles Super Bowl Preview!

The Eagles and Patriots will play in Super Bowl XLII in Minneapolis for the right to claim the Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots will be playing in their 10th Super Bowl, and they are looking for their sixth title in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Eagles are going for their first Super Bowl title in their third appearance. It is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX when the Patriots won 24-21. I always like to look at the Super Bowl storylines before I get to the picks for the game. Here are the main storylines for Super Bowl XLII...

1) The chance for Brady and Belichick to win their 6th Super Bowl and put them into a higher level of immortality.

2) The opportunity for the Eagles and their fanbase to finally win the Super Bowl. They are 0-2 in Super Bowls and this is another chance to get it done. The Eagles fans have waited a long time for their team to win and this could be their moment.

3) The redemption story of Nick Foles and how he could actually win the Super Bowl for the Eagles after their MVP candidate, Carson Wentz, went down with an ACL injury in December.

4) That's really all I got at this point. If the Eagles win, it is about their city finally getting a Super Bowl title, and if the Pats win, then it is about Brady and Belichick. That is about it.....

Here is my preview of the game and picks....

Last Week's Record: 0-2
Overall Playoff Record: 2-6-2
Overall Regular Season Record: 131-110-15
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

A Case for the Eagles: The Eagles have a very good defense, and they can get pressure on Brady and disrupt him. They have a physical front seven, and it will be hard to run the ball on them. I like the way Jim Schwartz has coordinated his defense this year, and I think he will continue to do that in this game. How healthy will Rob Gronkowski be coming off a concussion? You have to like the hot-hand that Doug Pederson is riding as the head coach right now for this team. They can run the ball very effectively, and I could see them controlling the line of scrimmage over the Pats front seven. The way that Pederson has managed Foles gives you confidence he can do it again in this game. The Eagles have played up the underdog role all during the playoffs, and they can continue to do that here. They will use it as motivation once again, and I think they will feed off it. I would expect a lot of their fanbase to travel as well, and I think their fans will be more vocal and passionate in Minneapolis.

A Case for the Patriots: They are Patriots and they have Brady and Belichick. Did you doubt that they were going to lose that game against Jacksonville at home? Even if Gronk isn't 100%, you know Brady will be able to find someone else to get the ball to and someone else will step up and have a big game. Belichick will find a way to stifle Foles, and he will get the Pats defense to play well. The game is in a dome which I think helps Brady and that Patriots offense as well. It is hard to envision a scenario where Nick Foles outplays Tom Brady and the Patriots lose a Super Bowl to a backup quarterback.

Prediction: NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Philadelphia: This game will be close. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles are leading at halftime or at the end of three quarters, but in the end, the Patriots will win the game. Brady and Belichick will win their 6th Super Bowl together, and the Pats will go back-to-back for the first time since they did it in 2003-2004 when they beat........the Eagles.


Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Championship Sunday Recap!

The two teams are set for Super Bowl LII in Minnesota, and it will be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX as the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots meet in two weeks. The Pats outlasted the Jaguars in the AFC Championship and the Eagles completely dominated the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Before the hype and hoopla of the next two weeks of Super Bowl talk, here is my breakdown and analysis of Championship Sunday....

AFC Championship
New England-24 Jacksonville-20

1) I thought the Jags played a terrific game in the beginning. They let Blake Bortles get the ball out of his hands early, they spread the field, and they were aggressive. It worked as they built a 14-3 lead on the Pats in the first half. Plus, outside of giving up a field goal on the first drive of the game, they did a nice job on Tom Brady and that Patriots offense, and it looked like things were really going Jacksonville's way.

2) The turning point in the first half was when the Jags had a 3rd and 7 at the NE 44 with 2:23 in the half. They got a first down but the play was called off due to a delay of game on Jacksonville. The next play, Bortles got sacked and they were forced to punt. The Pats got the ball back, went right down the field with the aid of a helmet-to-helmet hit on Rob Gronkowski and pass interference call that brought the ball down to the Jax 13. A few plays later, James White scored from the 1 yard line and it was 14-10 heading into halftime.

3) After two field goals gave the Jags a 20-10 lead in the 4th quarter, the next key moment was the 3rd and 18 play that Brady converted. With 10:49 left, Brady looked over the middle and hit Danny Amendola for 26 yards and a first down. The Pats made it 20-17 on that drive when he hit Amendola again for a 9 yard touchdown with 8:44 left in the game. The 3rd and 18 was the play of the game.

4) After a short punt and a nice return by Amendola, the Pats took over at the Jags 30 with 4:58 left in the game. You knew Brady was going to take them down the field for the winning score. Five plays later, Brady hit Amendola for a 4 yard pass to take the lead for NE 24-20 with 2:48 left in the game.

5) The Jags got a first down but Bortles had a pass knocked away by Stephon Gilmore on a 4th and 15 play, and the Pats ran out the clock and put the game away.

6) It was a valiant effort by the Jaguars. They pushed the Patriots to the limit, and they could have won this game. The Myles Jack strip of Dion Lewis in the 4th quarter at 20-10 made me think that this was Jacksonville's game but it wasn't meant to be. Good effort and good run in the playoffs by the Jags this year.

7) I went into the game thinking the Patriots were going to win and despite all the talk about Tom Brady's hand injury, he played well and the Pats did what they had to do to get back to the Super Bowl. It is their 10th Super Bowl appearance in team history and they are looking for the 6th Lombardi Trophy in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. It is just amazing what they have accomplished as a duo.

NFC Championship
Philadelphia-38 Minnesota-7

1) You had to feel good if you are a Vikings fan after the way they started this game. Case Keenum hits Kyle Rudolph on a 25 yard TD pass and it is 7-0 Vikings right away. The way the Vikings finished last week, and the way they went right down the field on the Eagles made it seem like it was going to be their day and their year.

2) The game turned when Case Keenum got picked off late in the first quarter, and Patrick Robinson returned it for a touchdown to tie the game at 7-7. Minnesota had all the momentum in the world and the pick-six got Philly back into the game, got the crowd going, and it light a spark in the Eagles. Minnesota never recovered from that.

3) The other key sequence that turned this game was late in the first half. The Eagles led 14-7 and Minnesota was driving and had the ball at the Philly 16 facing a 3rd and 5 with only 3:25 left in the half. At worst, they are getting a field goal to make it 14-10, but Keenum got hit, fumbled, and the Eagles recovered. They went 76 yards in 7 plays and it was capped off by a back-breaking Nick Foles 53 yard TD pass to Alshon Jeffrey, who was wide open, to make it 21-7 with 1:09 left in the half. Then, the Vikings are forced to punt and only used 40 seconds of game clock and the Eagles took over at their own 20 with only 29 seconds left. Three straight completions by Foles moved the ball all the way down to the Vikings 21 yard line, and they kicked a field goal to make it 24-7 with no time left in the half. The Vikings went from being down 14-7 with only 3:25 left in the half at the Philly 16 to being down 24-7 going into halftime. That was an awful sequence for the Vikings and it really put the game away for the Eagles.

4) The rest of the game was basically a party for the Eagles and their fans. Foles hit Torrey Smith on a 41 yard TD to give them a 31-7 on the first possession of the second half, and Philly scored again on a Jay Ajayi touchdown to make it 38-7 in the third quarter. Speaking of Foles, he was tremendous. He finished 26-33 for 352 yards and 3 TDs. He was unbelievable and it was a fantastic performance as he led the Eagles to the NFC Championship.

5) The Vikings are left with the memories of their amazing win in the Divisional Round over the Saints, but this is a huge disappointment that they didn't win this game. Their defense got torched, and the ride for Case Keenum and that offense finally ended. It was a tough loss because everything was set up for them to go to the Super Bowl. They didn't have to worry about Seattle and Green Bay in the playoffs this year, and they were facing a Philly team without MVP candidate Carson Wentz. They were road favorites going into this game and everyone was on their bandwagon. They got dominated by the Eagles, and this game was over by the 3rd quarter. This will be a very tough pill for them to swallow going forward.

6) Give the Eagles credit. They responded in these playoffs without their best player (Wentz). No one picked them to beat the Falcons in the Divisional Round and they won as home underdogs. No one picked them to beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and they won as home underdogs. They lost Wentz in December and other key members on offense and defense, yet they still finished 13-3 and won the NFC title. I never gave them a chance in any of these two games, and I didn't think Nick Foles had it in him to play that well. It was a surprising run for the Eagles, and now they head to their third Super Bowl appearance and a showdown with the Patriots with a chance to win their first ever Lombardi Trophy hanging in the balance.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Championship Sunday Preview and Picks!

The NFL's version of the Final Four is set and Championship Sunday features some new faces, new teams, and not the QBs you thought would be here at this point. In the AFC, the Patriots and Tom Brady are back for the seventh consecutive year in the AFC Title Game, but they are taking on the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are making their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1999. In the NFC, the Vikings are in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2009, and the Eagles are making their first title game appearance since 2008. Who would have thought that Championship Sunday would feature Tom Brady alongside Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Nick Foles. The big storyline for me is what matchup gives us the best possible Super Bowl matchup. Here is how I would rank the potential Super Bowl matchups in order of best to worst.

1) New England vs. Minnesota: The Pats going for their 6th Super Bowl against the long-suffering Vikings fans with the Minnesota playing the game in their home stadium.

2) New England vs. Philadelphia: Two big market teams with Philly trying to win their first ever Super Bowl. Also, it would be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX.

3) Jacksonville vs. Minnesota: The upstart Jags against the Vikings in their home stadium. Two good defenses going at it.

4) Jacksonville vs. Philadelphia: Blake Bortles vs. Nick Foles doesn't exactly get everyone all fired up.

Here we go with picks for Championship Sunday.....

Last Week's Record: 1-2-1
Overall Playoff Record: 2-4-2
Overall Regular Season Record: 131-110-15
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

AFC Championship Game
Jacksonville at New England

A Case for the Jaguars: The Jags have a very good defense that can do a lot of things to disrupt Tom Brady and frustrate the Pats offense. They can rush up the middle and inside with Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell, and Marcell Dareus. They have athletic linebackers who can cover, and they have a secondary that can matchup well with the Pats receivers. The Jags are also playing with house money like they did last week. They are the underdogs, nobody thinks they will knock off the mighty Patriots, and no one really wants them here. They will play that up all week. They have made a living off of playing great defense, creating turnovers, and limited Blake Bortles on offense. They feel like they can do that one more time to get to the Super Bowl. Also, I think Doug Marrone has done an excellent job, and I think he can hold his own in this coaching matchup. What if Tom Brady's right hand is really badly injured? Could that be the deciding factor in this game?

A Case for the Patriots: The Patriots have the experience over the Jaguars. They know what it takes to get here and they will be ready for what the Jags throw at them. You know the Jaguars defense has caught the attention of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and you know they will find a way to exploit that defense and find a weakness. The Patriots also had to deal with that ESPN story before the playoffs began, and I think you saw them use that as motivation in their 35-14 whipping of Tennessee last week. They will make Blake Bortles beat them in this game. They will take away everything else and force him to beat them, and I have a hard time thinking Blake Bortles is going into Foxboro and upsetting the Pats in the AFC Championship.

Prediction: NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Jacksonville: In a rematch of the 1996 AFC Championship Game, the Patriots will be too much for Jacksonville in this game. I think the Jags will be feisty and keep it close for awhile, but Tom Brady will be too much and the Patriots will head to the Super Bowl for the eighth time in the Brady-Belichick era.
Final Score: Patriots-27 Jaguars-10

NFC Championship Game
Minnesota at Philadelphia

A Case for the Vikings: After defeating the Saints with that miracle finish, destiny and fate might be on their side. It reminds me a little of the 2012 Ravens after they beat Denver on the Rahim Moore-Jacoby Jones play. I think the Vikings have "lady luck" on their side, and I can see them getting to the Super Bowl. The fact that they are one game away from the Super Bowl, which takes place in their home stadium, is just amazing. I think that is also playing into their favor. They are on the cusp of being the first team ever to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium in the host city. Also, I like this matchup from a strategic standpoint, I like their defense going up against Nick Foles. They are a better coached team, matchup well with Philly, and the elements in Philly won't be a factor. They have that "look" of a team that is going to represent the Vikings in the Super Bowl for the first time since Super Bowl XI.

A Case for the Eagles: The Eagles pulled off the upset at home over the Falcons last week after everyone was doubting them and picking against them. You have to be careful not to overlook them once again. They are playing up the "Nobody Believes in Us" angle and it clearly worked last week. Guess what? No one believes in them once again this week as the Vikings are three point favorites in Philly. The Philly crowd will be nuts, the stadium will be electric, and they will be fired up to see if the Eagles can get to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2004. You have to like the matchup between the Eagles defense against Case Keenum, and you have to think that Doug Pederson will construct a gameplan to limit Nick Foles and run the ball repeatedly. The recipe is there for the Eagles, and you can make the case that their home crowd and their defense will be too much for the Vikings.

Prediction: Minnesota (-3) over PHILADELPHIA: This game should be low scoring and look for both defenses to play well. I think it is a back and forth game, but in the end, the Vikings will do just enough to either force a turnover or make a big play and win this game. It looks like it is their year to me.
Final Score: Vikings-23 Eagles-16



Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Divisional Playoff Recap!

The Divisional Playoffs provided two surprising upsets, another clinical performance by the Patriots, and an absolute classic with an incredible finish in Minnesota. It was a great weekend of football for the NFL on a weekend that didn't have a lot of high expectations heading into it. The Eagles pulled the upset over the Falcons, the Pats buried the Titans. Then, Sunday featured a stunner with the Jaguars going into Pittsburgh and upsetting the Steelers, and the Vikings won on a 61-yard walkoff TD from Case Keenum to Stephon Diggs to win it 29-24. It sets up a very surprising final four for Championship Sunday. The Jaguars head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots and the Vikings go to Philly to take on the Eagles. It will be hard to top some of the moments we saw this weekend. Here is my reaction and recap of the Divisional Playoff Weekend.....

NFC Divisional Playoff Game
Philadelphia-15 Atlanta-10

1) The Falcons are going to be sick that they lost this game. It started so ominous for Philly. Jay Ajayi fumbled on the second play of the game, they missed an extra point after taking a 6-3 lead, and they muffed a punt that led to a 10-6 lead for Atlanta. It felt like the Falcons were going to win this game, and then all of a sudden they were down 15-10 trying to win the game on the final drive.

2) Here is a key moment in the game: Nick Foles throws a ball that should have been intercepted by Atlanta near midfield right before the half, but the ball deflects into the waiting arms of an Eagles receiver and actually get a first down on the play. That set up a long pass on the sideline with only one second remaining in the half and Philly got a 53 yard field goal to make it 10-9 as time expired in the first half. Instead of Atlanta getting the ball near midfield to extend their 10-6 lead, the Eagles got a break and three points to cut the lead to one.

3) Down 10-9, the Eagles put together two key drives near the end of the third quarter and in the fourth quarter to take a 15-10 lead. Both drives were 12 and 14 plays respectively, ate up clock, and gave the Eagles the lead and the ability to hold on at the end.

4) The Falcons offense was not the same this year as it was last year. That was evident all year long. It was evident again in this game and on that last drive. Matt Ryan did hit Julio Jones for 20 yards on a 4th and 6 to keep the drive alive, but their sequence of plays when they had a 1st and goal from the Philly 9 was just puzzling. After a crappy fade that fell incomplete to Julio Jones, they tried a shovel pass that almost got picked off on 2nd and goal. On 3rd and goal, Ryan hit Jones for a 7 yard gain on a slant that set up a 4th and goal from the 2. On the next play, Ryan rolled right, looked for Jones, who slipped, had no one else open, and had to throw a prayer to Jones in the corner of the endzone and it fell incomplete. I hated the call because it was basically a two receiver route, cut off the whole field since Ryan was rolling to the right and it was just doomed from the start. It was a terrible series of plays that ended the Falcons season in disappointment.

5) Give the Eagles credit. They played up the underdog role that they heard all week long, and they played well-especially on defense and in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They won a playoff game for the first time since 2008, and they did it with Nick Foles in place of their injured star Carson Wentz.

6) The Falcons were favorites to win this game, and they will be kicking themselves all offseason once again. They had a clear path to the Super Bowl and got a break by playing the Eagles without Wentz. Steve Sarkisian was not a good fit for this offense all season long, and it came back to bite them in the most critical part of the year. It will be another long offseason for the Falcons as they try to comprehend what happened and how they didn't win this game.

AFC Divisional Playoff
New England-35 Tennessee-14

1) The Titans got off to a good start and took a 7-0 lead when Marcus Mariota hit Corey Davis for a 15-yard TD. That was about it for the Titans on this night.

2) The Pats settled in and took a 14-7 lead, and then the game turned on this sequence. After being forced to punt from their own endzone, the Pats appeared to have a false start on 4th and 5, but it was overturned and the Titans were called for a neutral zone infraction. How the refs made that call was ridiculous. The Patriots clearly moved but somehow the call went against the Titans. The Pats got the first down and Tom Brady hit Chris Hogan on a 4 yard touchdown to cap the drive right before the half to give the Patriots the 21-7 lead and that was about it for this game.

3) The Titans had a terrible moment of mismanaging this game when they went for it on 4th and 1 near midfield right before the half, and they got stopped. Luckily for them, the Patriots missed the field goal and the game was still only 21-7 at the half.

4) The second half was all Patriots as expected, their defense stifled Mariota and the Titans offense and they added two more touchdowns for the convincing 35-14 win. It is the seventh straight AFC Championship Game appearance for the Patriots. That is absolutely amazing for a team to accomplish that in this era of the NFL.

AFC Divisional Playoff
Jacksonville-45 Pittsburgh 42

1) Great start for Jacksonville and a horrible start for Pitt. First drive, Jax goes right down and caps it off with a Leonard Fournette 1 yard TD run on 4th and goal to make it 7-0. Big Ben gets picked off by Myles Jack two series later, and Fournette rumbles in to make it 14-0. It was a shocking start for the Jags on the road.

2) You knew the Steelers were going to come back and get back in it. They were moving the ball but faced a 4th and 1 at midfield, and they decided to go for it but they ran the ball with Le'veon Bell and Jacksonville snuffed it out. The Jags converted that into another touchdown, this time by T.J. Yeldon on a 4-yard run to make it 21-0 with 11 minutes to go in the second quarter.

3) The Steelers and Big Ben finally started to make the comeback. He hit Antonio Brown on a 23 yard TD pass to cut it to 21-7. Brown made a sensational one-handed catch in the endzone and the Steelers looked like they had some life.

4) After forcing a Jacksonville punt, the Steelers were moving once again, but at the Jax 47, Big Ben got sacked and stripped, and Telvin Smith scooped it up and raced 50 yards for a score to make it 28-7. It felt like every time Pitt had some momentum and the Jags came up with a play to break the momentum. Unfortunately, Smith got called for taunting and it gave the Steelers good field position with the short kickoff by Jacksonville.

5) What a throw by Big Ben on 4th and 11 from the Jags 36 to Martavis Bryant to make it 28-14. It was a huge play for them to get that score with only 28 seconds left in the half.

6) The Steelers got the ball to start the third quarter and they go right down the field and cut it to 28-21 on a 19 yard hookup from Big Ben to Bell. It was another incredible throw and catch and the Steelers got two TDs on two straight possessions before and after the half.

7) The next big sequence was when the Steelers faced another 4th and 1 at the Jax 39 with 12:50 left in the fourth quarter. They attempt a pass and the ball fell incomplete and they turned the ball over on downs once again.

8) After a big pass play by Blake Bortles, Fournette punched it in again to make it 35-21 with 10:34 left in the game. Once again, the Jags made the Steelers pay on another missed opportunity.

9) The Steelers responded once again on the next drive when Big Ben hit Antonio Brown on a 43 yard TD which featured another incredible catch by Brown while he was completely covered. It cut the lead to 35-28 with 9:05 left. The Steelers weren't dead yet, and I felt that the Steelers were going to come back and win this game at that moment.

10) Naturally, the Jags go right down the field on this Pittsburgh defense and they capped it off on a sweet Bortles to Tommy Bohanon 14 yard TD pass to make it 42-28.

11) The Steelers scored a touchdown to make it 42-35 with 2:18 seconds left. Now, they have two timeouts and the two minute warning. Instead of kicking deep, pinning the Jags deep, and then using timeouts to get the ball back down seven, Mike Tomlin decides to go for the onside kick. It made no sense at that time. The onside kick was terrible and the Jags recovered. That whole sequence was terrible for the Steelers.

12) After a Jax field goal to make it 45-35, the Steelers got it down to the Jax five yard line with 47 seconds left. Tomlin had to go for the field goal on 1st and goal to make it 45-38 and then try the onside kick to give them a chance. Instead, they kept playing and went for the touchdown and scored a touchdown with only 1 second left. It gave them no chance to win the game, and it was a mistake to not figure this out.

13) This was a huge upset for Jacksonville, and it is their first trip to the AFC Championship since 1999. It reminded me of the 1996 Divisional Playoff upset the Jags pulled off in Denver over the Broncos. It was a stunning win, but well deserved because the Jags used the motivation that no one thought they would win, and they pulled it off.

14) This was a terrible loss by the Steelers. They were big favorites at home, and they got beat by Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mike Tomlin was terrible in this game, and I really think the Steelers were looking ahead to playing the Pats in the AFC Championship next week.

NFC Divisional Playoff
Minnesota-29 New Orleans-24

1) Many people, myself included, felt like this was going to be the game of the weekend, and it was. What a game and what finish in a game that is now being dubbed, "The Minnesota Miracle."

2) You can fast forward through about three quarters of this game. The Vikings had built a 17-0 lead, and looked like they were in control of the game until late in the third quarter on the heels of two interceptions and a missed field goal by New Orleans. The game changed when Drew Brees hit Michael Thomas for a 14-yard TD pass with only 1:18 left in the third quarter to cut the Minnesota lead to 17-7. The next play, Case Keenum got picked off and the game completely turned around. It was that moment that a lot of critics of Keenum had been waiting for.

3) Drew Brees made the Vikings pay when he hit Michael Thomas on a three-yard TD to cut the game to 17-14. It was a great play design and great call by Sean Payton and the game was about to get really, really good.

4) After the Vikings kicked a field goal to make it 20-14, the teams traded punts. After partially blocking the Vikings punt attempt, the Saints took over at the Minnesota 40, and Brees took them down in four plays and took the lead on a sweet 14-yard throw to Alvin Kamara to give the Saints their first lead of the game at 21-20 with 3:01 left to go in the game.

5) The Vikings drove the ball into New Orleans territory with the aid of a 24 yard throw from Keenum to Adam Thelien. The drive stalled, and the Vikings settled for a field goal, which Kai Forbath nailed from 53 yards to take a 23-21 lead with only 1:29 left. At the time, I said that they left too much time on the board for Drew Brees, and I was right.

6) Brees calmly drove the Saints down the field and put them into field goal position. The big play was the throw he made on 4th and 10 to Willie Snead down to the Minnesota 33. The Saints had to settle for a field goal after a key 3rd and 1 stop by the Vikings. Will Lutz nailed the 43 yarder with only 25 seconds left, and the Saints had taken the lead back at 24-23.

7) It set the stage for one of the all-time great endings in the NFL Playoff history. After getting the ball to their own 39 yard line with only 14 seconds left and no timeouts, Case Keenum threw a deep sideline route that Stephon Diggs jumped up, caught, and then raced all the way untouched into the endzone for the walk-off game-winning touchdown to send the Vikings to the NFC Championship. It was about as incredible of an ending as you can imagine. New Orleans safety Marcus Williams completely misplayed the ball, ducked underneath Diggs and then fell and took out his own player as Diggs raced down the sideline for the game-winning touchdown. What finish and what a moment.

8) I feel bad for Drew Brees because this might be one of his last shots at getting back to another Super Bowl. He just turned 39, and if they hold on after he drives them down to win the game, then he has a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year. Unfortunately, that won't happen. It will be very tough for the Saints to get over this loss this offseason.

9) Rahim Moore finally got off the hook after his misplay led to the Ravens defeating the Broncos in the 2012 AFC Divisional Playoff. Marcus Williams takes his place in the annals of playoff game blunders, and I think Williams' play might have been worse.

10) I'm happy for the Vikings and their fans. They finally had a playoff moment go their way. They had to deal with Roger Staubach's Hail Mary, the Gary Anderson miss in 1998, getting knocked out on the last play by the Cardinals in 2003 in Week 17, the Brett Favre interception in New Orleans in 2009, and the missed chip-shot by Blair Walsh two years ago against Seattle. It was finally their moment, and it just might propel them to the Super Bowl.

Friday, January 12, 2018

Divisional Playoff Preview and Picks!

Divisional Weekend is here in the NFL, and it has a different look to it this year. In the AFC, two stalwarts, the Patriots and Steelers, led by Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are back, but two teams that haven't been here in a long, long time are their opponents. The Titans head to Foxboro Saturday night, and the Jags head to Pittsburgh on Sunday. In the NFC, there are also some new faces and new QBs this deep in the tournament. Nick Foles, subbing for the injured Carson Wentz, leads the 13-3 and #1 seeded Philadelphia Eagles while Case Keenum leads the 13-3 and #2 seeded Minnesota Vikings. The Saints, after their big win over Carolina last Sunday in the Wild Card round, are in the second weekend of the playoffs for the first time since 2013, and the Falcons are back trying to erase the memories of last year's Super Bowl collapse. It is a great weekend of football with two games on Saturday and a doubleheader on Sunday. Four big-time QBs are still in the mix (Brady, Big Ben, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan) and four names that you wouldn't think would be here are actually here (Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Keenum, and Foles). It will be interesting to see if the big four QBs get through or if one of those other four guys can breakthrough. Here are my picks for Divisional Weekend in the NFL.............

Last Week's Record: 1-2-1

Overall Playoff Record: 1-2-1
Overall Regular Season Record: 131-110-15
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NFC Divisional Playoff-Saturday 1/13 (NBC)
6) Atlanta at 1) Philadelphia

A Case for the Falcons: Watching the Falcons beat the Rams in last week's Wild Card game showed us that Atlanta might be back and ready to make another Super Bowl run. They were six point underdogs in LA, and they went out and beat the Rams and moved on. It was an impressive game, and their defense looks like they could be coming together at the right time. Now, they have to be licking their chops as they go up against Nick Foles. Doesn't it seem like Atlanta has that look of a team that gets on a run and no one wants to play them in these playoffs? They seem like they are on a mission right now. It was like the regular season didn't matter, and all they did was just get into the playoffs and start their season at that point. I could also see the storyline of Matt Ryan going into his hometown and ending the Eagles season prematurely. Plus, doesn't this just look so obvious that the Falcons are going to knock the Eagles out in their first game in the playoffs and add more misery to the Eagles fanbase.

 A Case for the Eagles: The Eagles are getting absolutely no love in this game. It is quite shocking that a team that went 13-3 and is the #1 seed in the NFC, and they are underdogs at home to a #6 seed. The Eagles will use the "Nobody Respects Us" angle as motivation all week long. They can play into it and maybe that will be a deciding factor. Also, don't sleep on the Eagles defense. They have been good all season, and DC Jim Schwartz could have a decided advantage in the matchup over Atlanta's OC Steve Sarkisian. I know they have to protect Nick Foles, but maybe they can run the ball and keep the ball out of Foles hands and play close to the vest-knowing they are at home. The Eagles are probably the most disrespected top seed in NFC history.

Prediction: Atlanta (-3) over PHILADELPHIA: As much as I try to break this down, I really have a hard time thinking Nick Foles and the Eagles will win this game. If they do, then more power to them. The Falcons have the better QB, momentum, and that look of a team that is making another run.
Final Score: Falcons-24 Eagles-17

AFC Divisional Playoff-Saturday 1/13 (CBS)
5) Tennessee at 1) New England

A Case for the Titans: How the Titans won their Wild Card game over the Chiefs last week is still amazing to me. It was an incredible comeback win, and it has to give them some confidence going forward. They have nothing to lose here. They won their first playoff game since 2003, and no one believes that they will win their second this weekend. Mike Mularkey kind of got the monkey off his back as far as his job is concerned after winning last week's game, so now the Titans can relax, play fast and loose, and try to pull off the monumental upset. Maybe Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota can get hot again and take over the game and shock everyone once again.

A Case for the Patriots: The Patriots got all the motivation they needed last weekend when ESPN published an article about how there was dysfunction in the ranks between Robert Kraft, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick. Their bye week was spent answering questions and denying this report. They will use that as a "Patriots vs. the World" mentality and take it out on the Titans this Saturday night. I really can't see the Titans putting up much of a fight in this one, and this has the look of a blowout early. The Patriots will come out of the gates, attack the Titans on defense, move the ball at will, and score in bunches to take a comfortable lead. Then, they will let their defense take over and take away anything that Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry do well. It just looks like the obvious playoff mismatch and the Pats are just above and beyond the better team in every aspect.

Prediction: NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Tennessee: The Pats are rested and ready to take out any frustrations they have about the story that ESPN published, and they will put the Titans away early in the evening. Start searching NETFLIX for something else to watch Saturday night when this game gets ugly in the first half.
Final Score: Patriots-34 Titans-14

AFC Divisional Playoff-Sunday 1/14 (CBS)
3) Jacksonville at 2) Pittsburgh

A Case for the Jaguars: Their defense is dynamic. That group anchored their win over Buffalo last week. Plus, they already went into Pittsburgh and won this year while picking off Ben Roethlisberger five times. I think they will play with house money. They will play fast and loose, and they will play with confidence that they can go into Heinz Field and beat the Steelers a second time this season. The last time a team beat Pittsburgh twice in their stadium in one season was the 2007 Jaguars. Could history repeat itself 10 years later? I know Blake Bortles is a liability, but their formula could work if they run the ball with Leonard Fournette, play conservative, play field position, and try to force Big Ben into some turnovers again. Jacksonville could be dangerous here because their defense can travel.

A Case for the Steelers: The Jags have the Steelers attention because Pittsburgh was embarrassed by this team in their own stadium in October. The Steelers want revenge, and they want to put it on this young and cocky defense. Antonio Brown will be back at full strength after missing a few weeks with a calf injury. Can't you see Big Ben throwing all over the Jags defense after throwing for five interceptions against this team during their first meeting? Also, don't forget that the Steelers are using Ryan Shazier's injury as a rallying cry. Sometimes, teams feed off of emotional situations, and I could see the Steelers using Shazier and his injury as a way to get them to play so passionate because they want to win it for him. Plus, I'll take my chances against Blake Bortles in a home playoff game any time.

Prediction: PITTSBURGH (-7) over Jacksonville:
Final Score: Steelers-26 Jaguars-13

NFC Divisional Playoff-Sunday 1/14 (FOX)
3) New Orleans at 2 Minnesota

A Case for the Saints: They feature a Hall of Fame QB in Drew Brees, who is playing well, and a two-headed monster in the running game with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. They have the coaching experience with Sean Payton. They are young in a lot of spots, but sometimes that youth can be a good thing. They already won a playoff game with their win over Carolina last week, so I think they come into this game as the underdog and they will play fast and loose. I think they are dangerous in this spot. You can kind of see them getting on a run here too. Plus, do you really think they are going to respect Case Keenum? You know they are going to force him to make plays in the passing game and you have to wonder if he can actually do it now that we are in the playoffs. There is just something about them that makes me think they could spring the upset.

A Case for the Vikings: Their defense is very, very good, and they are going to be tough to run on in this game. They are at home and this is the first playoff game in the new US Bank Stadium that was built last year. They have had a great regular season, had the bye week, and you know that place is going to be loud and crazy. This is the best Vikings team since the Brett Favre team in 2009, and the fans are going to be ready. I think Mike Zimmer is as good of a head coach as there is in this league, and he will have his team ready to play. Throw in the fact that a lot of people are picking the Saints this week, and you know that got their attention. Plus, Minnesota is hosting the Super Bowl in a few weeks, so the idea that the Vikings could be the first ever team to play in their own stadium for a Super Bowl is tantalizing and possibly an act of fate.

Prediction: New Orleans (+5) over MINNESOTA: I think the Vikings will win this game, but I think five points is a little too high. Throw out the game from Week 1.This game will be close down the stretch, and the Vikings will keep their dream season alive, but it is a field goal game either way.
Final Score: Vikings-23 Saints-20