Week 7 Picks!

As the 6-0 Broncos head into their bye week, one statistic that I keep thinking about is the fact that since Week 2 Denver's defense has only allowed two first down conversions on third down in the second half. Think about that for a second. In a five game span, 10 quarters, against the likes of Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, the Broncos have given up a first down only twice on all of their third down conversion situations. That is the main reason why they are standing atop the AFC West undefeated. Anyway, as Denver goes into the bye week, I need to step up my game and get over the hump on my picks. I currently stand two games below .500, so I'm poised for a big week to get me going and on the plus side. Here we go with Week 7 picks......

Last Week's Record: 7-7

Overall Record: 43-45-2

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY: I can't put the nail in San Diego's coffin until they are officially dead and buried. The Chargers aren't the same Chargers right now, but I think they do enough to get by the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

Indianapolis (-13) over ST. LOUIS: Wouldn't be cool if the Rams left St. Louis and moved back to Los Angeles? With news that L.A. has cleared the last obstacle to get their new football stadium constructed, and the fact that the Rams are for sale, maybe a return to the left coast would be a good thing for the Rams franchise. We know the NFL would love it. In any event, Peyton Manning should have some fun at the expense of the Ram secondary. Colts continue their undefeated march.

CINCINNATI (-1) over Chicago: Jay Cutler's performance last Sunday night in the loss to the Falcons, summarized everything he did in Denver. He made some sick throws, kept his team in the game, and he almost carried his team to the victory. Of course, he also threw two costly interceptions, including one in the red zone, and his team lost a close one. Cutler is a franchise QB, but he is a few close losses away from getting the label of "Great QB Who Can't Win a Big Game." I like the Bengals in this one because they are going to ticked off after their performance last week against Houston. Carson Palmer outduels Cutler.

CLEVELAND (+8) over Green Bay: I have just a hunch on this one. You can always make the case for an underdog who is playing at home against a team from the opposite conference. Call it a lack of familiarity for the Packers against the Browns. The Browns shock the Pack in a rematch of the 1965 NFL Championship.

PITTSBURGH (-4) over Minnesota: I loved the Steelers all week. After quietly taking care of business the last two weeks over Division 1-AA Detroit and Cleveland, the Steelers will knock the Vikings off the perch of the undefeated. I'm thinking three picks for the Steeler defense.

TAMPA BAY (+15) over New England (In London): The Pats will win, but the Bucs will cover the double digit spread. Also, can we please end the International Series in London? It is the dumbest idea the NFL has thought of since the two bye weeks back in 1993. I hate the London game.

San Francisco (+4) over HOUSTON: The Texans win on the road last week at Cincy was so typical for them the last few years. Everyone will buy back into the Texans, but I can't do it just yet. The Niners continue to surprise in a game that many people believe they will lose. Gary Kubiak's seat gets hotter after this loss.

New York Jets (-6) over OAKLAND: Last year, the Raiders actually showed up and played hard when they defeated the Jets in October, Denver in November, and Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Raiders showed up in Week 1 against San Diego, beat KC in Arrowhead in Week 2, and upset Philly last week. The Raiders go back to being the Raiders at least for another month. Things aren't so bad as Jet fans may claim. Forget about rookie QB, Mark Sanchez. The real worry for the Jets is the performance of head coach Rex Ryan. He has been awful the last two weeks. In any case, the Jets and Sanchez show up to play on Sunday and pound the Raiders.

CAROLINA (-6) over Buffalo: This game was actually tough for me to pick. I loved how the Bills played last week, and by losing Trent Edwards that could actually be a positive. Bills fans are calling Edwards, "Trentative Edwards" and "Checkdown Trent." As bad as Carolina started the season, they have gutted out two wins in a row. The Panthers get their third straight on Sunday.

MIAMI (+6) over New Orleans: The Saints can score on anyone, but the Dolphins are the best underdog team to pick. Miami is at home, can pound the shit out of the ball, and control the clock. The Saints are due for a letdown after the big win over the Giants, and Atlanta looming next week.

DALLAS (-4) over Atlanta: The Falcons are for real, but Dallas does enough to win a close game by a touchdown. The Cowboys will be in the playoff hunt all year, and the Falcons are just a different team on the road.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona: The G-Men were embarrassed last week by the Saints. They will be waiting like a pack of wolves for the Cardinals to make their cross country trip to the Meadowlands. This game won't even be close.

Philadelphia (-7) over Washington: As much as the league and the teams change, one thing stays the same in Philly. Every year, the Eagles lose a game to a really crappy team, and everyone starts to doubt Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid. It wouldn't be crazy to pick the Redskins, but when your head coach had his play calling duties stripped of an offense he brought in, then you just can't pick them. Philly in a snoozer on MNF.