Week 17 Picks!

Week 17 is upon us, and has there been an NFL season that has moved as quick as this one? From the end of the lockout to free agency, and then training camp and preseason came and went, and the regular season started and now the next thing you know it is already Week 17. The NFL season just goes too fast. For my gambling purposes, I started the year very slow, and I fell under .500 for a while. I finally figured everything out, and my last month has given me a shot for a .500 record. Here we go with my Week 17 picks, and a look at the big game in Denver.....

Last Week's Record: 10-6

Overall Record: 103-110-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Washington: The Eagles are looking to finish 8-8 after a 4-8 record marred their "dream" season. Let me be the first to introduce the Eagles as next year's "Bounce Back" team of 2012. You can just pencil the Eagles in for 11 wins next year-especially when they hire Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator. As for the Redskins, Mike Shanahan is left to answer questions about his future in Washington. Shanny is currently 11-20 in two years in D.C. The Skins will have to find a QB next year or Shanny will be on his way out.

ATLANTA (-10) over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are headed to the playoffs and most likely the 6 seed in the NFC. Atlanta was able to take advantage of beating up on some of the weaker teams in the league this season, and they probably won't make it past the Wild Card round because the Saints will be waiting for them, but give Mike Smith credit. Here is his resume in four years as the Falcons HC: 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, 10-6 and three playoff berths. Any fan would take that in a four year span. As for the Bucs, it is time to fire Raheem Morris and start over with a coach that will be asked to bring some sizzle to the Buccaneers franchise.

San Francisco (-9) over ST.LOUIS: The Niners will take care of the Rams on the road and lock up the number 2 seed. That will set up a really interesting game in the Divisional Round: Saints at 49ers. The Niners and Jim Harbaugh have had a really great season, and once again it shows you how important coaching is in the NFL. I don't know how far they will go in the playoffs, but we'll save that for another day. As for the Rams, their terrible 2011 campaign will finally end, and Steve Spagnuolo will probably get the boot. It is not all his fault. The Rams just have too many holes on their roster, and too many empty seats in the stands. It isn't a bad job because Sam Bradford is still considered a franchise QB, and whoever gets the job has a chance to build around him.

Chicago (+1) over MINNESOTA: I'll take the Bears in one of the few games that don't mean anything this week. What a tough break for the Bears this year when they lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. If Cutler stays healthy, the Bears would be a playoff team and would be a huge threat going into Lambeau Field in the playoffs. As for the Vikings, they have to first hope that their stadium situation gets fixed and the team remains in Minnesota. Then, they have to hope that Christian Ponder is the man at QB. Finally, they have to hope Adrian Peterson returns to form after an awful ACL injury last week. There are a lot of tough questions surrounding the Vikings heading into the offseason.

Detroit (-3) over GREEN BAY: The Packers look like they are going to rest their starters, and the Lions want to win this week to get the 5 seed. Detroit wants to avoid playing at New Orleans or San Fran in the first round, and if they get the 5 seed, then they head to either New York or Dallas. Both teams are gearing up for the playoffs, and they could actually end up meeting in the Divisional Round if things break right.

Carolina (+8) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints will begin to dial it down as they realize that San Francisco is pummeling the Rams and getting the 2 seed in the NFC. Last year, the Saints were in a similar situation at home against Tampa Bay, and they shut it down in the second half. Expect the same here because the Saints won't care if they have to play on Wild Card Weekend. They look ready to go for another Super Bowl run. As for the Panthers, this season was a success. They will finish with at least 6 wins which is a nice improvement from last year's debacle. Also, Cam Newton looks like he is going to revolutionize the quarterback position in the NFL. He is a star, and the future is very bright for him and the Panthers. Look for the Panthers to be next year's sleeper team and make the jump just like the Lions did this year.

HOUSTON (+3) over Tennessee: I know Houston has nothing to play for, but don't you think they need a win here to gain some confidence heading into the playoffs. Losing three straight would not be a good thing, and in the NFL you can't just turn it on or off whenever you feel like it. As for the Titans, this season is something for them to build on, and the big question for them is if Jake Locker is ready to takeover next year as the team's starting QB

CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore: I just have a feeling the Bengals are going to win this game. I guess this would be a my "Hunch of the Week." It is a good story for the young Bengals even if no one in Cincy really supports this team. They will be a live underdog heading to Houston next week in the playoffs. As for Baltimore, this team just confuses me. They play great against Pittsburgh and other top teams, but they struggle against the weaker ones. I think they are headed for another wild card appearance and another road game to start the playoffs.

Pittsburgh (-7) over CLEVELAND: I am a little nervous about this pick, but I'll stick with the Steelers. Look for Pittsburgh to be the number two seed and have a chance to get revenge on the Ravens for what happened in the regular season. As for the Browns, my sleeper team of 2011 crashed and burned. Looking back it was a risky pick and I should have investigated it further, but I really liked it in August. They need to find a solution at QB, and I'm not so sure that Pat Shurmur was the right man for the job.

JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Indy: This game has huge meaning for the Colts. If the Colts lose, then they get the number 1 pick in the draft. If they win, and the Rams lose, then the Rams get the number one pick. Look for the Colts to play hard, but ultimately they will lose and get the first pick. This will create the number one storyline of the offseason: What will the Colts do with the first pick of the NFL Draft?

New York Jets (+3) over MIAMI: Everyone is jumping off the Jets bandwagon this week, but this seems like a game the Jets win for Rex Ryan. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the Jets really screwed up the construction of their team this year, and everyone outside of the organization saw it coming. You can't throw Mark Sanchez under the bus for this year, and you still need to give him time to grow and develop. If the Jets don't make the playoffs this year, I think they will do a lot of soul searching and will definitely be a better team in 2012. As for the Dolphins, they have some potential. Who are they going to get to be the head coach of this franchise? What are they going to do about the QB position? Robert Griffin III could be the answer for them come April.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Buffalo: The Patriots smell blood in the water, and they go lock up the number one seed in the AFC. They won't be a lock to make it to the Super Bowl, but it will be fun to see if they can get there with this defense. As for the Bills, there are some pieces in place for them to build on. The question will be how far Ryan Fitzpatrick can take them.

OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego: This is the lock of the week in my opinion. The Raiders will cover in this game easily. The Raiders could very well find their way into the playoffs as a division winner or a wild card. The Chargers will have their bags packed for the offseason and Norv Turner will probably be fired by the time their plane lands back in San Diego. The Raiders will roll in the Black Hole.

Seattle (+3) over ARIZONA: Two teams that played really hard down the stretch and are both sitting at 7-8. This came is tough to call, but go with the Seahawks to get to 8-8. These two teams could be on the rise for 2012.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: I have know idea who is going to win this game, but the NFL and NBC couldn't have asked for a better game to end the regular season. Giants and Cowboys with the NFC East on the line. This is the biggest regular season game between these two rivals since the epic 1993 season finale when they played each other with homefield advantage and the NFC East on the line. All I know about this game is that it will be 27-24 with either Tony Romo or Eli Manning with the ball late. I'll take the G-Men to win it late.

Now for the main event...........The Broncos host the Chiefs in Denver. If Denver wins, they will win the AFC West. If they lose, they are most likely out unless the Raiders choke at home to the Chargers. I have had all week off to think about this game. There are things that make me confident and things that make me really nervous.

Here is what makes me nervous about this game:

-The Kyle Orton factor. You can just smell this storyline coming about a mile away. He shouldn't even be playing for the Chiefs in this game. The fact that he knows our personnel really scares me.

-The Chiefs are playing really hard for interim coach Romeo Crennel. They want him to keep the job next year, so they are playing this like a playoff game.

-The Chiefs defense pretty much shut down Tim Tebow and the Broncos in their first meeting. The Chiefs gave up a touchdown on the first drive of the game-all runs- and then gave up a long touchdown pass from Tebow to Eric Decker late in the fourth to seal it. That was pretty much it, and this Chiefs defense is playing really well down the stretch.

-The Broncos recent collapses in December.

-The Broncos offense has become predictable and conservative.

-Their defense has really played poorly the last two games.

-Brian Dawkins is out, and their young safeties have really struggled the last two weeks.

Here is what I'm confident about in this game:

-Kyle Orton is not exactly Joe Montana. I know Orton is going to be motivated to beat the Broncos, but he isn't known for having a killer instict as a QB. He never won a big game for the Broncos, so is he all of sudden going to turn into this amazing player?

-The Broncos defense has matched up well with the Chiefs skill players in the past few meetings.

-Denver is home.

-Tim Tebow. Can Tebowmania reach its' peak after the Chicago game only to come to a crashing halt like this in Week 17? Does Tebow go out with a whimper like this? It seems hard to believe that his story will end in a crushing defeat at the hands of Kyle Orton on Sunday.

All of that leads me to the only key to this game for the Broncos. This game is all about Tim Tebow. This is his moment. This is his time. He has to play well, and he has to put this team on his back and do whatever it takes to win this game on Sunday. If he has to rush for 20 carries and over 100 yards, then he has to do it. This game is about him. If he wins it, then he is the man in Denver for 2012 and beyond. The Broncos will become his team, and they will build around him. If he loses the game, then there is a good chance that the Broncos will go find some real competition for him at the quarterback position in 2012-either from a veteran or in the draft. This is Tim Tebow's moment. He has a chance to get the Broncos into the playoff for the first time since 2005. He has to take advantage and will this team to victory. Can he do it?

Sadly, I don't think so. I think the Chiefs and Kyle Orton come into Denver and bury the Broncos playoff hopes.

The Pick: Kansas City (+3) over DENVER

Final Score: KC-23 Denver-10

NFL Playoff Scheduling Predictions

Tomorrow I will post my Week 17 picks and prediction on the big Broncos-Chiefs showdown, but before I get there, I have to roll out my Playoff Scheduling Predictions for this year's postseason. Why do I even care about what games get slotted when? Who cares what network gets a certain game? Well, it is one of my favorite little pleasures that I get around playoff time. I guess this fascination started back in 1997 when I spent my entire holiday break home from college trying to figure out when the NFL would schedule the Broncos-Jaguars Wild Card game. As I was trying to figure it all out, I became aware of the impact of ratings, importance of game times, and influence of network and advertising executives. That year Denver hosted Jacksonville in the late window on ABC on Wild Card Saturday. The next week Denver traveled to Kansas City to take on the 13-3 Chiefs in the Divisional Round. I spent all week trying to find out why the NFL selected Denver-KC for the Sunday late window of the Divisional weekend. Until that point, I just figured the games were slotted with no real reason other than the fact that time zones had to play a part. As the years have gone on, I always tried to predict when, what time, and what network the league would slot the playoff games. When the NFL decided to move games on Wild Card Weekend and Divisional Weekend to Saturday Night in primetime, it really piqued my interest. I really found out how important time slots were for the networks, and the fact that the league rotated AFC/NFC time slots for each network became very important. As we approach Week 17, here is a look at what I think the NFL and the networks might do come playoff time.........

-Here are the scenarios if the Bengals/Jets/Titans make the wild card, and the Raiders win the AFC West. Also, I have slotted in the Falcons as the 6 seed, and the Lions as the 5 seed in the NFC.

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday January 7th

4:00pm EST NBC-Atlanta at New Orleans

8:00pm EST NBC-Baltimore/Pittsburgh at Oakland

Sunday January 8th

1:00pm EST CBS-Cincy/Jets/Tennessee at Houston

4:00pm EST FOX-Detroit at Dallas/New York Giants

-If the Broncos win the AFC West, then you are looking at something like this......

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday January 7th

4:00pm EST NBC- Atlanta at New Orleans

8:00pm EST NBC- Baltimore/Pitts at Denver

Sunday January 8th

1:00pm EST CBS- Cincy/Jets/Tennessee at Houston

4:00pm EST FOX- Detroit at Dallas/New York Giants

Here are the Divisional Weekend Predictions for sites and times.........

Saturday January 14th

4:00pm EST FOX- New Orleans/Dallas/NYG/Detroit at San Francisco

8:00pm EST CBS- Cincy/Jets/Tennessee/Oakland/Denver at New England

Sunday January 15th

1:00pm EST FOX- Atlanta/Detroit/Giants/Dallas at Green Bay

4:00pm EST CBS- Houston/Denver/Oakland at Pittsburgh/Baltimore

Broncos Get Stampeded by Bills on Christmas Eve

The Broncos did not give me the Christmas gift that I wanted because they were absolutely embarrassed at the hands of the Buffalo Bills on Christmas Eve in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills buried the Broncos 40-14, and Denver now finds themselves at 8-7 and in a tie with the Raiders for the AFC West lead. The Broncos host Kansas City in Week 17, and if they win, then they are in the playoffs as the AFC West winners. It is pretty much win and in for the Broncos. There is a scenario that is possible for the Broncos to lose and make it as AFC West winners, but that would require an Oakland loss at home vs. San Diego. Before we get to the finality of the season for the Broncos, we need to look back at Saturday's terrible loss against Buffalo.

The one thing that scared me about this game was the fact that all Denver needed to do to win the West was to win Week 17 at home against Kansas City. The Buffalo game was not a win and your in scenario. That bothered me all week long. I posted in my picks column that I could see Denver playing poorly and basically saying "Fuck it, this sucks we'll just go for the division title next week at home." That is how certain parts of this game felt. The game started perfect for the Broncos after Tim Tebow scored on a 1 yard run to finish off a 73 yard drive to give them a 7-0 lead. After two Bills drives ended with two missed field goals, things were looking good for Denver. After another three and out by the Broncos, the Bills drove down and got a field goal to make it 7-3. It felt like the game was starting to turn and sure enough they got the break in the game they needed. Leodis McKelvin took a punt 80 yards for a touchdown to give the Bills a 10-7 lead in the second quarter, and they never looked back. A C.J. Spiller touchdown run gave the Bills a 17-7 lead at the halftime. Spiller gashed the Broncos for over 111 yards rushing, and he had big runs all day long. Tebow led a third quarter touchdown drive, and he capped it off with a touchdown pass to Daniel Fells. The Bills now only led 17-14 in the third quarter, and many Broncos fans-including myself- felt that they were in good shape to make a comeback. Unfortunately, the comeback was not meant to be. The Bills got two more field goals to make it 23-14 late in the third quarter. At that point in the game, Tebow really looked like a young QB in the heat of the moment, and he started to force some throws. Tebow overthrew Demaryius Thomas late in the third quarter for a key interception by Jairus Byrd. The pick led to another field good and the Bills led 26-14 going into the fourth quarter. Tebow and the Broncos were backed up at their own 10, and Tebow made a bad throw trying to hit Eric Decker, and another Byrd interception and return gave the Bills a 33-14 lead. The bottom fell out the next play when Tebow was sacked and the ball flipped in the air, and Spencer Johnson picked it out of the air and returned that for a touchdown. Talk about a meltdown and next thing you know it is 40-14 Buffalo. The Broncos were bad in all three phases, and Tebow actually melted down the last quarter. It was a humbling game for everyone involved in Denver, and after winning six straight now the Broncos have dropped two in a row. Here are some of my thoughts and observations about the game..........

1) Tebow played pretty well until his fourth quarter collapse. His interceptions and mistakes were bad, and he really looked like he was pressing and trying to do too much. You can't go too crazy about the game because it wasn't all his fault, but hopefully he learns from this and gets better and uses this game as motivation for a better effort next week.

2) The Broncos defense has not played well in three out of their last four games. They were gashed by Spiller all day on the ground, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to get some timely throws to Stevie Johnson and David Nelson. The Broncos got no pressure at all, and the Broncos gave up too many big plays on every drive the Bills scored. This defense is not the same one that it was a month ago.

3) Von Miller's hand injury is really affecting him. He has been a non-factor the last two weeks, and the cast on his hand is really hurting his game.

4) Rahim Moore might be the worst safety in the league. Once he came in the game, the defense seemed like it fell apart. He misses so many tackles, and he just seems like he is lost out there. His personal foul penalty in the third quarter was a killer.

5) The Broncos offense is very conservative and predictable. It seems like they start the game off with a nice set of plays, and they usually move the ball effectively. Then, the Broncos become so predictable. They seem to run on first down, run on second down, and then put themselves in a third and long, or a third and medium followed by a Tebow run. No wonder why they struggle on third down. Just try to throw the ball a little bit on first down. Their play calling has to improve this week, or the Chiefs defense will eat them up.

6) Once again the Broncos proved that they can't close. Another December loss to a team with a losing record. It doesn't matter who the coach is or who the quarterback is because the Broncos can't win big games late in the season.

7) Denver finishes off the season with a Week 17 showdown against Kyle Orton and the Kansas City Chiefs. If Denver wins, then they finish 9-7 and win the AFC West. This game will be very difficult for the Broncos, and the Orton factor scares the hell out of me. I'll preview this game and all the ramifications at the end of the week.

Week 16 Picks!

As we head towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, this year the NFL season coincides with Christmas. As I was thinking about that, I remembered some of the past Christmas/Bronco moments. The Broncos actually have some really good memories playing on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day in my lifetime. Here are some of the games and memories attached with them:

Christmas Eve 1995 Denver at Oakland: This is actually one of my favorite Bronco games of all time. The Broncos travel to Oakland with a 7-8 record. The Raiders are 8-7 and need one win to make the playoffs. It was Mike Shanahan's first year, and before the game John Elway told some reporters that if the Broncos win it will really give them a boost heading into the '96 season. If they lose, some close to Elway said he might think about retirement. The Broncos trailed 28-17 going into the fourth quarter. Elway led the Broncos all the way with one of his classic fourth quarter drives. A Jason Elam field goal won it late for Denver 31-28, and the Broncos knocked the Raiders out of any playoff contention.

December 23rd 2000. SF at Denver: The day before Christmas Eve the Broncos hosted the 49ers in the last ever game at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos were 10-5 and had a playoff spot wrapped up. The pounded the Niners in the Mile High swan song 38-9.

Christmas Night 2004. Denver at Tennessee: The Broncos were 8-6 and needed some a win and some help to get into the playoffs. On Christmas Night, the Broncos travled to Nashville to take on the Titans. Denver came out firing and took a 17-7 lead early. They kept the pressure on and buried the Titans 37-16 to get to 9-6. The Jaguars lost the next day at home to Houston and that opened the door for the Broncos who made the playoffs at 10-6.

Christmas Eve 2005. Oakland at Denver: With a playoff spot already clinched, Denver was really pushing for the AFC West crown, a home playoff game, and a first round bye. All that would be accomplished if they could beat a last-place Raiders team. The Broncos jumped out early on the Raiders with a big lead, and pounded them the rest of the way with 22-3 victory and an AFC West Title.

Christmas Eve 2006. Cincy at Denver: This was a miracle game for the Broncos. After starting the season 7-2, Denver lost two in a row, and Mike Shanahan benched Jake Plummer for rookie Jay Cutler. After two defeats in Cutler's first two starts, Denver was 7-6. After a blowout win at Arizona, the Broncos stood at 8-6 and hosted an 8-6 Cincy team in Denver. A back and forth game came down to the fourth quarter. The Broncos led 24-17 when Carson Palmer throw for a touchdown to cut the score to 24-23. The Bengals were an extra point away from tying the game and sending it to overtime, but there was a bad snap on the extra point and the Broncos held on for a 24-23 win.

Hopefully, this Christmas Eve will provide Bronco fans another memorable XMas gift in the form of a win at Buffalo. Onto the picks for Week 16............

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1

Overall Record: 93-104-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Oakland (+3) over KANSAS CITY: This is one of those games where you are better off just picking the winner out of a hat. How can the Raiders respond after losing three in a row and blowing a 13 point lead late in the fourth quarter at home to Lions last week? The Chiefs played very well in their win over the previously undefeated Packers last week. In this day and age everyone seems to only look at last week's game for a reference point. A lot of people have already kicked dirt on the Raiders, but I don't think they are done yet. Take the Raiders and the points on the road this week.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Jacksonville: After an awful loss to the winless Colts last week, the Titans try to regroup and get back into the wild card mix. They should take care of business at home this week. Also, do you think Jacksonville will now look to take a QB in the first round again this year after watching Blaine Gabbert play?

Arizona (+4) over CINCINNATI: The Cardinals have been on fire since they were 4-7. I liked the Bengals all week, but when I looked at the spread and laid all the chips on the table, I decided to go with the Cards. This one smells like a 20-17 game either way.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Miami: The Patriots offense is really, really good. We know how bad their defense can be, but Tom Brady is rolling with this group on the offensive side. They can smell the blood in the water for the 1 seed, and I think they win this game by 10.

BALTIMORE (-12) over Cleveland: Thanks to the Browns my sleeper pick for 2011 looks silly and foolish. The Ravens come in after getting embarrassed by the Chargers last Sunday Night. One thing we do know about the 2011 Ravens: At home they are good, and they take care of weaker teams in Baltimore. This should be an easy win for Baltimore.

New York Giants (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: It is the Battle of New York. I have no idea how this game is going to play out. I could make a case for either team. One thing I do know is that one fanbase is going to be extremely miserable, angry, and drunk on Christmas Eve.

Minnesota (+7) over WASHINGTON: I have had a good feeling for the Vikings all season long. For some reason, I see them pulling the upset this week. Although this season has been a disappointment in Washington, the Redskins have played hard the last month. If they get a QB in the offseason (Peyton Manning?) or in the draft (RG III), then Mike Shanahan will have a dangerous team heading into 2012.

CAROLINA (-7) over Tampa Bay: I have also been right about the Panthers a lot this year. I'm going to ride them again at home against the Bucs, who have mailed it in this year.

St.Louis (+14) over PITTSBURGH: I have been burned by the Steelers three times this year when they were heavy favorites (Indy, Jax, and KC), and with Ben Roethlisberger's status for this week uncertain, I'll take the Rams and the points. This looks like a classic ugly win for the Steelers. I'm thinking something along the lines of 17-6.

DETROIT (-2) over San Diego: Everyone loves the Chargers this week, and they are playing great football, but the Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a win at home on Christmas Eve. The Lions, who haven't been in the playoffs since 1999, and their fans deserve to win this game at home and clinch the wild card. It would be quite a scene if they can pull it off at home this week. I hope they get it done.

SEATTLE (+3) over San Francisco: I'm riding the Seahawks and their recent surge. If Seattle didn't blow a 4th quarter lead at home to Washington a month ago, they could be sitting at 8-6 right now. At 7-7, they have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but give Pete Carroll credit. The Seahawks have played hard down the stretch.

Philadelphia (+2) over DALLAS: Here is another game that I have no idea how this will play out. One thought is that the NFC East is Dallas' division this year, and the Cowboys will make a statement and set themselves up to win the division by putting the nail in the Eagles' coffin. The other thought is that the Eagles are red-hot and in the midst of making an incredible run to win the NFC East at 8-8. I don't know how this is going to play out, so I'll take the road team.

GREEN BAY (-12) over Chicago: The Packers get back on track with a Christmas Night shellacking of the visiting Bears. Chicago is starting Josh McCown at QB, and this one could get ugly very fast.

NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Atlanta: The Saints will win this game, but it will be a tough game for them. The Falcons can lose this game, but still clinch a playoff berth with a win at home in Week 17 over the Bucs.

BUFFALO (+3) over Denver: I haven't had a good feeling about this game all week for the Broncos. They have to travel all the way to Buffalo on a short week, play early, throw in the Christmas factor, and the weather will probably be the worst the Broncos have played in all season long. I could see the Broncos struggling in this one and getting off to a very slow start. At some point I could see Denver just throwing their hands up and saying "Forget about this one, we'll just go for the division next week at home vs KC." To me this season is just destined for an Orton vs. Tebow matchup in Week 17 with the AFC West on the line.

Final Score: Bills-23 Denver-16

Thursday Night Pick!

Houston (-6) over INDY: The Colts popped their cherry last week with a win over the Titans, but they won't make it two in a row. The Texans have the AFC South clinched, but they will get back on track with an easy win on the road this week.

Can the Broncos Close?

Haven't we been here before as Broncos fans? Here we are watching the Broncos sitting at 8-6 and with a potential AFC West Title or playoff berth in their grasp. The truth is that we have been here before because the Broncos have been staring straight at the playoffs the last five years, and they have not gotten in one time. Not once. Zip. Zilch. Nil. If you don't remember or if you are new to Bronco Nation (Tim Tebow Supporters), then let me give you a trip down memory lane. In 2006, the Broncos were 8-6 and needed two wins in their final two games to make the playoffs. After a Christmas Eve win over Cincy 24-23 (The Bengals muffed a potential game-tying extra point late in the fourth quarter), all the Broncos needed to do was win at home over the 6-9 49ers. The result: Niners win 26-23 in OT in a game that Denver blew a 13-0 lead. Fast forward to 2008. If "The Drive" and "The Fumble" are apart of Denver lore, then "The Collapse" also has to be included. The Broncos were 8-5 and had a three game lead on the 5-8 Chargers with three games to play. One Broncos win would clinch the division. One San Diego loss would give the Broncos the title. Denver got blown out by a 12 win Carolina team to fall to 8-6, and the Chargers rallied from 21-3 down to defeat the Chiefs by one point. In Week 16, the Chargers trailed Tampa Bay going into the fourth quarter, but they took the lead and pulled away from the nine win Bucs. Denver hosted the 6-8 Bills. Denver took a 13-0 lead, but watched as Buffalo roared back to take the lead in the third quarter 16-13. After that it was a seesaw battle that saw Denver lose a heartbreaker 30-23. In the season finale, Denver traveled to San Diego and got waxed 52-21 to lose the division and complete the collapse. A year later, Josh McDaniels was the new head coach and Denver raced out to a 6-0 start and stood at 8-4 after 12 games. After a tough loss at undefeated Indy, the Broncos hosted a bad Raiders team that would only win five games that year at home. After letting JaMarcus Russell go right down the field to win it late, the Broncos fell to 8-6, and had to go to Philly and the 10 win Eagles the next week. In a hard fought game, the Broncos rallied late but the Eagles pulled it out with a 30-27 win. At 8-7, the Broncos still had a chance to make the playoffs the next week at home vs three win KC. Although they would need some help to get in, the Broncos still had a chance. Denver blew its' chance and the season ended in disaster as the Chiefs rolled the Broncos 44-24.

Think about that: Three different seasons the Broncos were on the doorstep to the playoffs, and each time they couldn't finish. Each season the Broncos were 8-6 heading into the final two weeks. Their record in those six games: 1-5. The Broncos lost their home finale to the 6-9 49ers, the 6-8 Bills, and the 3-12 Chiefs. In 2006, it was mainly a result of Mike Shanahan's decision to bench Jake Plummer and start rookie Jay Cutler with the Broncos at 7-4 and in control of the Wild Card. Blame Shanahan and a defense that wasn't the same after Al Wilson went down with a neck injury. In 2008, the blame goes to Shanny and that awful defense that was one of the worst in the NFL that season. The '08 collapse got Shanahan fired and eventually new coach Josh McDaniels got rid of Jay Cutler. In 2009, blame McDaniels, Kyle Orton, and a defense that wore down and fell apart at the end of the season.

The Broncos haven't been to the playoffs since the 2005 season. They should have been there three times in that span. All three of the seasons mentioned above should have been years that the Broncos didn't get in. Blame Mike Shanahan, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and everyone else that was associated with those teams. From Pat Bowlen on down, everyone in the organization should get their brunt of criticism for failing to close those three years. Usually, it will take a team years before it gets a shot like that again. After the Broncos bottomed out at 4-12, McDaniels was sent packing, John Elway comes back as the new V.P of Football Operations, John Fox becomes the new head coach, and eventually Tim Tebow gets his chance at QB. This was supposed to be a year in which the Broncos took baby steps and rebuilt the organization. Who knew that the Broncos would find themselves in the same position they were in back in '06,'08,'09. Only three years after that devastating finish in San Diego, the Broncos can win the AFC West. They have a 5-9 Bills team on the road this week. That is followed up by a 6-8 Kansas City team, led by Kyle Orton, in Week 17 at home. If Denver beats the Bills this week, and KC beats Oakland in Arrowhead, then the Broncos are the AFC West Champs. If the Broncos lose this week, then they can still win the division with a win over KC. Everything is there for them. The Broncos can erase the horrible memories of 2006, 2008, and 2009 with an improbable division title this year. All they have to do is take care of business against teams with inferior records. Shanny, Cutler, Marshall, McDaniels, and Orton all failed at this exact spot. This time it is John Fox and Tim Tebow's turn. A coach whose teams were known for finishing hard at the end of seasons and a quarterback who is the true definition of being a winner will take their shot at getting this franchise back into the playoffs. Franchises don't recover from these types of collapses. Fox's leash as the Broncos head coach will be a lot shorter if he doesn't coach this team into the playoffs. Tebow's future will become very cloudy, and the Broncos could very easily draft a QB in the first round next year if he doesn't close this out.

The Broncos have two weeks to get it done. Tebow has a chance to end one of the most improbable Broncos seasons ever the right way and do something that Orton and Cutler could not do. He can also cement his status as the Broncos QB of the future. Fox has a chance to begin his own new legacy in the history of the Broncos. He can show everyone how great of a coach he is by getting this Broncos team into the playoffs. The message is simple: Get it done. By any means necessary, close this out. This is no other option.

Brady and Pats Bring TebowMania Down to Earth!

In my opinion there is no such thing as a good loss in the NFL. Every game from September to December means something and you can't just dismiss a loss and move on. Some people might depict New England's 41-23 thumping over the Broncos as simply a case of Tom Brady being Tom Brady and Denver not yet ready for primetime. I don't buy it one bit-especially the way the Broncos jumped all over the Pats in the beginning of the game. Denver took a 16-7 lead thanks to a dominating rushing game, and it looked like Denver's magical ride would continue, but reality, Tom Brady, and crucial turnovers set in and the Broncos loss at home to snap a 6 game winning streak. Now, Denver stands at 8-6 and it will be in a dogfight the final two weeks to make the playoffs. The Broncos got a touchdown run from Tim Tebow on its' opening drive to take a 6-0 lead (The extra point snap was low). Brady responded with at touchdown pass to Chad Ochocinco to make it 7-6 Pats in the first quarter. The Broncos answered right back with a Lance Ball 32 yard touchdown run to finish off a drive in which Denver and their running game completely gashed the Patriot defense. Up 13-7, the Broncos defense forced a Patriots punt, and Denver once again moved the ball methodically on the ground and through the air to set up a field goal and a nice 16-7 lead. From that point, the Pats dominated. After a Brady to Aaron Hernandez touchdown hook up, Ball fumbled on the Broncos next play. The Pats converted with a field goal and it was 17-16. Tebow fumbled on an option play the next series, and the Pats turned it into a short Brady QB sneak and it was 24-16. Quan Cosby inexplicably tried to field a punt with less than 10 seconds in the half in his own end, and he muffed it which led to a Patriots field goal to make it 27-16 at the half. Those three errors really buried the Broncos chances. After each team punted on their first possessions of the third quarter, Brady went to work and dissected the Broncos defense. A Danny Woodhead touchdown run gave the Pats a 34-16 lead late in the third. Tebow added a touchdown run midway through the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 34-23, but once again Brady cut the Broncos secondary to ribbons and put the nail in the coffin with a BenJarvus Green-Ellis touchdown run to make it 41-23. It was a disappointing finish to one of the most highly anticipated games in recent memory. After starting out so fast and furious, it is surprising to me how this team just melted in the second quarter.

Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game......

1) Despite fumbling in the second quarter, Tebow played very well. He threw the ball really well this week and his numbers don't look eye-popping (11-22 and 194 yards) he played one of the most efficient games of the year. He is progressing every week, but if they don't make the playoffs, then the questions about him will continue.

2) The Broncos young safeties got exposed yesterday. Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore, who started for the injured Brian Dawkins, missed tackles, and they both looked late and out of position. Maybe it will be a learning experience for them, but they both need to play better next week.

3) The Broncos defense has gotten carved up by Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and Tom Brady this season. If Denver is going against an average QB, then they will play well. If they are going against a good offense with a top-flight QB, then they are in trouble.

4) The Broncos had no answer for Tight End Aaron Hernandez. They kept Rob Gronkowski in check for the most part (4 catches for 53 yards), did a nice job on Wes Welker (4 for 41), but Hernandez buried them. Give credit to Brady as well. He was his stellar self again (23-34 320 and 2 TDs.)

5) The three turnovers were the key for the Broncos. Each turnover led to points, and the game completely changed as a result. You are not going to overcome that against the Pats. For the first time, the Broncos special teams really played a stinker.

6) The Quan Cosby muffed punt was the absolute killer and turning point in this game. Instead of being only down 24-16 at the half, the Broncos were down 27-16 and they gave away three points. That totally changed the game.

7) The Patriots got every single call the entire day. It was absolutely ridiculous. The illegal use of hands penalty on Robert Ayers on a 3rd and 24 in the third quarter was a disgrace. The Pats didn't score on that drive, but it completely changed field position. Awful job by the officials.

8) This is a bad loss and not a good loss for this reason: The Broncos started this game perfectly. They jumped on the Pats defense, they were running it at will, and their passing game was effective. At 16-7 you had to feel good as a Broncos fan. Unfortunately, the roof caved in after that, and the Patriots just took over. I'm sorry there are no positives in this loss.

7) Denver heads to Buffalo for a very tricky game against the 5-9 Bills. If Denver wins and Oakland losses, then the Broncos win the West. If Denver loses, then they must beat the Chiefs in Week 17 to win the division. I will have a special look at the next two weeks for the Broncos during the middle of the week.

Previewing the Game of the Year and Week 15 Picks!

Everywhere I went this week I could not escape the hype surrounding the Broncos vs. Patriots game this Sunday. Every time I walked past a restaurant or bar and looked throw the windows, ESPN was on and their was images of Tim Tebow and Tom Brady. Every time I put on NFL Network, there were stats and graphics previewing the game. Everytime I listened to sports talk radio, the announcers were talking about the game. Experts talked about how this is the game of the year, and how this game in the most fascinating in years. You just couldn't get away from it. Trust me, I am not complaining because it is great to see the Broncos relevant again and back in the public eye. My only complaint is that every single analyst said the same exact thing. In different forms of words, the experts said the following: Denver's defense won't be able to stop Tom Brady and his weapons on offense, Bill Belichick will come up with a scheme to stop Tim Tebow, and the Broncos have been winning very close lately, but this week it will come back to haunt them. None of that information is very groundbreaking and all of it is usually backed up with nonsensical arguments. I guess that is what you get when you mix the popularity of the NFL with a million analysts on NFL Network, the entire ESPN brand, sports talk radio, and the internet. You get a million different thoughts but nothing of any substance. The buildup to this game reminded me of a buildup to a playoff game. During a normal playoff week there are only four or maybe as little as two games to break down. There is an overwhelming majority who believe one team will win, then they say the same thing all week, and then by week's end a bunch of analysts jump on the bandwagon of the underdog and give them some support for the upset. The only difference this week is that no one really is actually picking the Broncos. As a Broncos fan, here are my reasons why Denver can win this game outright......

1) We know that Tom Brady is going to move the ball on the Broncos defense. That is a given, but the key for Denver is to get Brady to settle for field goals. If Denver can force field goals instead of giving up touchdowns, then that is a win for the Broncos defense. They are not going to shut down Brady, but if they give up 350 yards through the air and only give up field goals, then they are in good shape to win it late.

2) Forget about Tim Tebow, the Broncos should be able to move the ball with their running game, and they should be able to get their receivers open. After watching the replay of the Bears-Broncos game last week, the Bears have a solid defense, and they have four studs at key spots that really shut down Tebow and the Broncos. Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers are really fantastic ends, and Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are beasts in the middle. Those four players really stopped Tebow and shut down the Broncos running game. I could care less about what defense Belichick comes up with, the Pats don't have players like that on their defense. I know they have Vince Wilfork, but they don't have edge players like Peppers, and they don't have an interior level like Briggs and Urlacher.

3) NFL games are usually decided by a few plays. Who knows how this game can turn out. If the Broncos get some turnovers or a few breaks, then they sure as hell can win this thing. If they don't, then it is going to be an uphill climb. The fun part is that every week in the NFL is so crazy, and that is why this game can go either way. It is just the way the NFL is.

With all that said, I just can't see Brady and company losing to the Broncos. This game should come down to Brady and Tebow matching score for score in the fourth quarter, but sadly I envision the Pats getting out to an early lead and putting it away late. I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Denver's magic ride continuing this week.

New England (-7) over DENVER

Final Score: Pats-30 Denver-16

Onto to the rest of the picks for Week 15.........

Last Week's Record: 9-6-1

Overall Record: 85-97-12

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NY GIANTS (-6) over Washington: I know that this looks like another Giants letdown game, but after doing it at home to Seattle and Philly already, don't you think the Giants come out and take care of business this week? Eli Manning usually follows up a great performance with a stinkbomb, but this week he comes out and plays great again. This will be close for Giants fans, but it looks like a 27-17 kind of win for the G-Men.

Green Bay (-13) over KANSAS CITY: The Packers will go into their last game at 15-0, and then they will rest their starters at some point in that game. That is my prediction for the Packers and their undefeated hopes. The Pack will roll the Chiefs this week in Arrowhead. The Chiefs fired Todd Haley this week, and now turn the reigns over to Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton. Talk about a rough one to get excited about in Arrowhead this weekend. By the way, after Haley was fired on Monday, he appeared on a show for ESPN. I finally figured out who Haley looks like: Jason Lee! So now everytime I watch Mallrats, Chasing Amy or Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, I can think of Todd Haley and his miserable term as head coach of the Chiefs.

New Orleans (-7) over MINNESOTA: The Saints look like they are in their "We Are Getting the 2 Seed in the NFC" mode and they will take care of business this week in Minnesota. I still like my Saints pick for 2011 NFC Champions. I wouldn't want to see them if I were the Packers in the playoffs.

Seattle (+3) over CHICAGO: Give Pete Carroll some credit because early on in the season the Seahawks looked like were one of the three worst teams in the league. At 6-7, they have been playing very well, and they are still keeping their NFC wild card hopes alive. It would take a real miracle (or as Mike Francesa would say "An inside straight") for them to make the playoffs, but they are still alive and get a win on the road against the slumping Cutler and Forte-less Bears. Not only do the Bears have to deal with losing three straight, not having Cutler and Forte, watching their playoff hopes disappear, but they had to deal with Sam Hurd and his drug trafficking scandal this week. Not a good time for the Bears right now.

BUFFALO (Pick) over Miami: I feel bad for what has happened to the Bills this year. At 5-2, they looked like the surprise team of the AFC, but since then they have lost six straight and will miss the playoffs for the 11th straight season. This game is tough to call, but I guess the Bills are due for the win at home.

Carolina (+6) over HOUSTON: The Texans are winners of the AFC South, and they deserve it because they had to deal with so many key injuries this season. I do think that they are due for a letdown this week though. The Panthers were burying the Falcons last week, but Carolina and Cam Newton just played awful in the second half. This game will be very close.

Tennessee (-6) over INDY: Tennessee and New Orleans played a really great game last week. It was one of the most enjoyable games of the day and the season so far. If you at the Titans, they have a really good chance of getting to 10-6. After this week they have the Jags and Houston, and the Texans might have everything all wrapped up by then. The Colts got cheap back door covers the last two weeks, but the Titans will put them away early.

Cincy (-7) over ST.LOUIS: The Bengals bounce back from a tough loss at home to Houston and take down the Rams on the road. It looks like Steve Spagnuolo's days in St.Louis might be coming to an end.

OAKLAND (+1) over Detroit: The Lions really need to right the ship the next three weeks to solidify a playoff spot. They need a signature win and they were lucky to hold on against the Vikings last week. This will be a very tough game for the Lions, and the Raiders are due for a big week. Look for Oakland to win this game by a touchdown.

PHILLY (-3) over NY Jets: I just think that the Eagles are going to relish the spoiler role the next three weeks. I am still not convinced that the Jets are back after they barely beat Buffalo at home, survived at Washington, and destroyed Tyler Palko and the Chiefs at home. The Jets will stub their toe at least once the next two weeks, and it might be this one on the road in Philly.

ARIZONA (-6) over Cleveland: The Cardinals are 6-7 and are looking to pull an "inside straight" and run the table to make the playoffs. They get to 7-7 here with a win over the Browns. John Skelton looks better than Kevin Kolb running this Arizona offense. That will be an interesting debate in Arizona in the offseason.

Baltimore (-2) over SAN DIEGO: Flacco! Rivers! It's the game no one on NBC wanted to have on Sunday Night Football! What a disgrace that this game was kept in the SNF slot over Denver-New England. Just an awful job by the NFL. Just for that I hope this game sucks really bad. Hopefully, the Ravens take down the Chargers and put Norv Turner out of his misery. I really don't want the Chargers to win another week.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2) over Pittsburgh: I'm taking the Niners only because of the uncertainty of Ben Roethlisberger's high ankle sprain. Look for a slugfest on Monday Night Football, but the 49ers win it 16-12.

Thursday and Saturday Night Picks!

Thursday Night Football Pick:

ATLANTA (-12) over Jacksonville: Atlanta cruises at home in another awful NFL Network Thursday Night Game, and the Falcons set themselves up for a big MNF game at New Orleans on 12/26.

Saturday Night Football Pick:

Dallas (-5) over TAMPA BAY: Raheem Morris is looking at his final days at coach of the Bucs, and the Cowboys will get back on track down in Tampa.

Deja Vu in Denver Again!!!!

Just when you thought that Tim Tebow couldn't top last week, he did it again. This week's victim: The Chicago Bears. Down by 10, with just over two minutes left, Tebow threw a 10 yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas to cut the Bears lead to 10-7. The Broncos were out of timeouts, so they needed to convert an onside kick attempt. The Broncos almost got their hands on the kick, but the Bears recovered needing a first down to ice the game. Marion Barber inexplicably ran out of bounds on second down, and that saved over 30 seconds for the Broncos. After a third down run, the Bears punted and Denver took over at their own 20 with 53 seconds left and down by a field goal. If you doubted Tim Tebow before, it will be hard to doubt him after this drive. Tebow hit Eric Decker for 9 yards, Lance Ball for 11, and a huge throw to Matt Willis for 19 yards, and Willis got out of bounds. After two incompletes, and a Tebow scramble out of bounds, Matt Prater drilled (It was good from 69) a 59 yard field to tie the game at 10. In overtime, the Bears got the ball first, and they drove the ball efficiently down the field and into Denver territory. On a 3rd and 7 from the Denver 38, Barber broke free and was seemingly running for a first down when Wesley Woodyard reached out and stripped him (Great defensive play by the way) from behind. Elvis Dumervil recovered the fumble and their own 34. Tebow hit Thomas for a huge 10 yard pass on 3rd and 8. Then, Tebow hit Thomas for 16 yards down to the Chicago 40. A few plays later, Matt Prater nailed a 51 yarder in overtime to win the game 13-10. Words can't simply describe how these finishes keep happening. People can say the Broncos and Tebow are lucky, but the bottom line is that a win is a win. Sometimes you need luck or some breaks in an NFL season, and right now the Broncos are getting those breaks. Tebow has led the Broncos from a 1-4 start, and now they sit at 8-5 and in first place in the AFC West. I will not buy in and start to talk about playoff talk. I am just going to continue to enjoy this ride, and not look too far ahead. The Broncos still have three games left, and there is still a lot of football left. This six game run is one of the most exciting, thrilling, mind-boggling runs I have ever seen as a Denver fan. Once again, Tebow made the plays at the end to win it, and he is making a believer out of some of his doubters. I don't know where this ride is going, but I am going to continue to enjoy it every step of the way.

Here are some of my observations and thoughts from the game.............

1) I know there are three games left, but how in the world is Tim Tebow not the Broncos starting QB in 2012? Tebow started very slow against a very good Bears defense (3-15 and an interception after three quarters), but he got really hot in the fourth quarter and overtime (18-25 for over 200 yards and a touchdown). He made throws from the pocket, and he was able to drive the Broncos on three straight drives with his arm and not his feet. I know he didn't play well early on, but I though the plays he made with his arm showed how much he is improving in the passing game.

2) The Broncos offense is going to have trouble with really good defenses. The Bears defense really shut down the running game and held Willis McGahee to just 34 yards on 17 carries. The spread option was not very effective either. The Broncos have to be able to trust Tebow more in the passing game earlier, but if the running game isn't working, then the Broncos are not going to move the ball efficiently.

3) The Broncos receivers really drop a lot of passes every week. Demaryius Thomas had a couple awful drops including a potential touchdown in the third quarter. Eric Decker dropped another one, and it seems that the Broncos seem to drop a key pass on third down at least twice a game.

4) Forget about the breaks that the Broncos got late in the game, but think about the unlucky breaks the Broncos got against them in the first three quarters. Thomas dropped a sure touchdown pass, Prater gets a field goal blocked, and Chris Harris drops a sure interception late in the first half. Denver had some chances to take a 10-0 or 13-0 lead at the half or early in the third quarter. Also, Marion Barber's catch in overtime that moved the Bears into Denver territory wasn't reviewed by the booth and if it was, the replay certainly showed that it was not a catch.

5) The Broncos defense did their job and buried Caleb Hanie and the Bears offense. Devin Hester's punt return set up the first touchdown, and Robbie Gould hit a 57 yard field goal for the only points of the game for Chicago. Dumervil and Von Miller both got another sack, and they really controlled the game. The problem is that they were on the field for so long because the Bears kept forcing 3 and outs. Denver's Defense gets another A for this week.

6) This is now the most exciting Broncos run since the Super Bowl runs in the late '90s. Tebow has captivated Broncos Country, the NFL, and the entire sports world. It is simply unbelievable. There are no more words to describe what has taken place the last six weeks.

7) I don't think that John Elway should be a cast in a certain villainous role. He is just letting the season play out and evaluate Tim Tebow's progression. It is not a personal thing, he is not jealous of Tebow, and he simply is having an open mind to filling the QB position. I think Elway absolutely should stick with Tebow next year, but I understand that he has to have a plan in addressing the QB situation.

8) The Broncos at 8-5 now host the 10-3 New England Patriots in a huge AFC showdown on Sunday in Denver. Let's hope the magic ride continues.......

Week 14 Picks!

Before I get to Week 14 picks, I just have to get a little something off my chest about the whole Broncos-Patriots Flex game situation. The Broncos host the Pats on Sunday December 18th. The game was scheduled for a 4:15 pm start on CBS. With the Broncos surging at 7-5 and Tim Tebow garnering national attention, their matchup against Tom Brady and the 9-3 Patriots looks like it is a must-watch matchup. It is the perfect game for NBC's Sunday Night Football Flex Game on 12/18. The game that currently occupies that spot, Baltimore at San Diego, is not as attractive as the Broncos-Pats matchup. Isn't this the perfect spot for a flex game? Isn't this the reason why NBC paid all that money for the SNF package? Aren't we supposed to showcase marquee matchups on primetime late in the season? The bottom line is this was about CBS and NBC battling it out, and the NFL took the easy way out by keeping the Ravens-Chargers on Sunday Night. It doesn't make sense, and it doesn't add up. CBS will get plenty of marquee matchups the rest of the way and into the playoffs. The NFL should have stepped up and said, "Sorry CBS but you guys protected Philly-Jets, and you didn't protect the Pats-Broncos, and if NBC wants it, then they get the game." The NFL, probably with some extra words from Bob Kraft, didn't step up, and missed out on a golden opportunity. Bad job by the league on this one, and it really dropped the ball big time. Anyway, onto the picks for Week 14........

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Overall Record: 76-91-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

BALTIMORE (-15) over Indy: The Colts did cover a 20 point spread at New England last week, but this looks like an easy victory for the Ravens. They should cover and move to 10-3.

CINCY (-3) over Houston: The Texans are now 9-3, and I have bet against them every week. The Texans are down to T.J. Yates at QB, and he did enough to win last week at home vs. Atlanta. The Bengals are now 7-5, but they will step up and do enough to win this week at home.

Oakland (+11) over GREEN BAY: This is my "Hunch of the Week." I just have a feeling that the Raiders are going to go into Lambeau and play a really tough game. The Packers are due for a letdown, and the Raiders could pull the shocker this week.

NY JETS (-9) over Kansas City: The Jets have an easy victory this week with Tyler Palko and the Chiefs coming to town. Look for the Jets to take care of business in an easier fashion this week.

Minnesota (+10) over DETROIT: The Lions are imploding, and they are a team in turmoil right now. Look, the Lions will probably win this game, but look for the Vikings to keep it close-especially with Adrian Peterson coming back.

New Orleans (-3) over TENNESSEE: The Saints were my preseason NFC Champion, and I still feel good about them. You know the Packers do not want to see the Saints coming to town in January. The Saints will simply overwhelm the Titans this week. It may be close for a few quarters, but look for the Saints to put it away late.

Philadelphia (+3) over MIAMI: At 4-8, the Eagles are virtually done in the NFC playoff picture. The Eagles will either mail it in the final four weeks, or go on a run and win four in a row to finish 8-8. I don't know what to expect from the Eagles this week, but I'm going to bet that they play well enough to win it.

WASHINGTON (+9) over New England: The Pats will stub their toe once in the next four weeks (Washington, Denver, Miami, Buffalo.) This could be the week that it happens. Look for Mike Shanahan and the Redskins to throw the kitchen sink at the Pats, and it might just be enough to get it done.

Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA: At 7-5, the Falcons really need this game badly. Look for them to take care of business with a tough, road win at Carolina. This one will be close, but look for the Falcons to close it out.

JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Tampa Bay: This pick is more of my disdain for the how the Buccaneers are playing, then the Jags chances. Awful game but take the Jags at home. Raheem Morris' seat is getting hotter and hotter every week.

San Francisco (-3) over ARIZONA: Although the Niners clinched the NFC West, they will still play hard because they want that number two seed in the NFC. The Cards are feisty at 5-7, but look for the Niners to win close one in the 19-13 range.

Buffalo (+7) over SAN DIEGO: I'm not burying the Chargers and their playoff hopes just yet, but they might not be able to recover from this hole. The Bills have lost five straight games after starting 5-2, and they are due for a win. Take the Bills and the points.

New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS: The Giants' loss to the Packers last week was similar to their 2007 loss to New England in Week 17. At 6-6, the Giants still have a good chance to somehow win the NFC East. Dallas comes in at 7-5 after Jason Garrett completely botched the ending of their loss to Arizona last week. This is a toss up, but I think the Giants find a way to win and get to 7-6.

SEATTLE (-5) over St.Louis: The Seahawks are quietly sitting at 5-7, and they could actually somehow make a run at the last Wild Card spot. The Rams at 2-10 have been a major disappointment. Steve Spagnuolo's team will have to win a few games in these last four weeks, or he could be out in St.Louis. Look for the Seahawks to put the Rams away at home on MNF.

Chicago (+3) over DENVER: This is the first time the Broncos have been favored since Week 2 against Cincy. I don't like all the hype the Broncos have been getting all week. All of attention has gone to Tim Tebow, and a lot of people are talking about how Denver could go and win the AFC West. Also, it seemed like everyone was talking about Denver's next game against New England and if that game was getting flexed into primetime. It looks like Von Miller will be back, but Willis McGahee is questionable, and Eddie Royal will probably be out. The Bears have a really good defense, and even if Caleb Hanie struggles again, it will be a close game. I just have a feeling that Denver could get caught reading their own press clippings and looking ahead to New England.

Final Score: Chicago-20 Denver-10

Thursday Night Football Pick- Week 14

PITTSBURGH (-13) over Cleveland: The Steelers at home on a short versus Colt McCoy sounds like a win. Don't worry about laying the points in another Thursday Night clunker.

Broncos Win a Shootout in Minnesota 35-32!

All the experts on television, in print, on the internet, and on the radio said that the way to beat Tim Tebow and the Broncos was to get a lead, stop the run game, and force Tebow to beat you through the air and not on the ground. If you get to 20 points, then you will win the game. Well, add another thing about Tebow and the Broncos that proved to be false. The Broncos did it again on Sunday in their 35-32 thriller over the Minnesota Vikings. This game proved some theories wrong as the Broncos trailed by eight points on three separate occasions. All three times the Broncos and Tebow answered. Tebow beat the Vikings through the air. He has his best passing game as a pro, and he finished 10-15 for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. In a game where the Broncos defense sorely missed Von Miller, who missed the game with a thumb injury, the Broncos offense picked up the slack, and put up over 30 points for the second time this season. Down 15-7 at the half, Tebow hit DeMaryius Thomas on a 21 yard touchdown pass to open the second half and cut it it 15-14. After Christian Ponder hit Percy Harvin on a 52 yard catch and run, the Vikings took a 22-14 lead. Back came the Broncos. Aided by a big return by Quan Cosby, Tebow scrambled and as he was going out of bounds he found a wide open Thomas, who then rumbled in for a 41 yard catch. 22-21 Vikings. At this point, you would think the Denver's defense would step up the way it had the previous five weeks, but Ponder and Vikings answered again, and another Harvin catch and run gave the Vikes a 29-21 lead with 9:41 to play. Enter Tebow once again with the game on the line. A beautiful Tebow to Thomas pass play gave the Broncos prime field position. The next play, Willis McGahee, who rushed for 111 yards, rumbled in for 24 yard touchdown. The Broncos were down 29-27 with 8:52 to play had to go for two. Who else was going to get the ball in that situation? Tebow rumbled in and the game was tied at 29. The Vikings again moved the ball down the field and got a field goal from Ryan Longwell to take a 32-29 lead. Here goes Tebow again. A first down completion to Matt Willis started the drive, and Tebow hit DeMaryius Thomas on another beautiful long pass to give the Broncos a chance to tie it. Tebow's throw to Thomas on 3rd down was there, but it just bounced of the receiver's finger tips. Matt Prater nailed the field goal, and with under two minutes left, the Broncos had tied it again at 32. Christian Ponder played really great all day long, but he made a crucial mistake on the Vikings first play. He was baited by cornerback Andre Goodman, and Goodman picked off Ponder and returned it to the Vikings 15. After a first down, the Broncos set it up for Prater, who nailed the game-winning 23 yarder as time expired. The Broncos won another last minute game, and this time it was on the strength of Tebow's arm, not his legs. Give credit to Willis McGahee, and the Broncos defense for getting a few key stops and a bgi turnover at the end. The Broncos wild and fun ride continues, and they now stand at 7-5 and winners of five straight games. They currently are tied for first place in the AFC West. It has been a long time since I have said those words, and it has been some of the most exciting, heart pounding moments as a Broncos fan that I have seen in a while. I just hope it keeps going.

Here are some of my thoughts and observations from the game.......
1) Right now this is the most fun I have had since the 2005 season when the Broncos went 13-3 and advanced to the AFC Championship Game. I got a text from a friend who is a Jet fan, and he asked how it was to watch meaningful football again. It really hasn't been that long since Denver was in the playoff hunt. Remember, they were 8-4 in 2009, and they proceeded to lose four straight. It has felt like it has been about 10 years since they had a winning record after 12 games. Like I said, I just want to enjoy this and take it one game at a time.

2) This game proved how good Von Miller is on this team. The Broncos couldn't generate a consistent pass rush like they did the past few weeks, and they got carved up by Christian Ponder. We need Miller back big time if there is any hope for us to make a run down the stretch.

3) Willis McGahee continues to be a beast. How about that transactions as one of the best offseason moves this Summer? McGahee ran for 111 yards and a touchdown, and early 4th quarter touchdown run was a thing of beauty.

4) The Vikings completely dominated time of possession. They held the ball for over 37 minutes, and they ran over 80 plays-including over 40 in the first half. That was a big factor in the play of Denver's defense. The Broncos defense was on the field for so much of the game. Give the Broncos credit though. Their defense got a pick six early by Mario Haggan, and Andre Goodman's interception late in the fourth quarter set up the game winning field goal.

5) Speaking of Goodman's interception, that moment was one of the best of the season. I haven't jumped that high in a long time, and when Goodman picked it off, I jumped so high I almost hit my head on my ceiling. Awesome moment.

6) The last five weeks have been so tense and thrilling, that I literally haven't sat down. Every week it is the same: I pace back and forth, go take a piss about 25 times a quarter, and think about how this is the week when we finally lose. Have I mentioned how wild this ride has been so far?

7) Tim Tebow made huge throws this game, and he beat the Vikings with his arm. He completed 10-15 passes for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. These were throws that Tebow was missing the first few games this season. Yes, I do know that the Vikings secondary is awful, so that will have to come into consideration, but you have to like the progress Tebow made this week.

8) The Broncos have now won five straight games, six of seven overall, and now have a 7-5 record. That is the longest streak since the first six games of the 2009 season. Also, they are have five straight road games and stand at 5-2 on the road this year with only one road game left. The Broncos return home to face the Bears who are also 7-5 after they lost two in a row without Jay Cutler.

NFL WEEK 13 Picks!

Here we go with Week 13 in the 2011 NFL season. You would hope that there would big games matching playoff caliber teams downt the stretch. There just aren't that many marquee matchups the rest of the way. For instance, this week only features the following games that pit two teams with winning records: Cincy at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at Houston, Detroit at New Orleans, Green Bay at New York Giants. That is is for Week 13, and if you look at it the Houston-Atlanta game loses some luster because the Texans are starting their third-string QB Tyler Yates. I'll keep track of the amount of marquee games each week as we hit the home stretch. Onto to the picks for this week............

Last Week's Record: 6-10-0

Overall Record: 66-85-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+2) over BUFFALO: The Bills played great in their loss to the Jets last week. Buffalo has lost four straight and now stands at 5-6. The Titans are lurking around at 6-5, and the Texans are down to Tyler Yates at QB. The Titans could lay in the weeds and make the playoffs somehow and someway this year. I think they get the job done in a close one at Buffalo this week.

CHICAGO (-7) over Kansas City: Caleb Hanie proved that he is no Jay Cutler last week in the loss at Oakland. We'll see if the Bears can bounce back this week at home to KC. I would normally love the Chiefs in this spot, but it looks like Tyler Palko gets the start again for them, so that sways me to Chicago's defense in this one. Look for Palko to get buried by that Bears defense, and look for a Kyle Orton sigthing in the second half. The Bears win this one in the 17-3 fashion.

MIAMI (-3) over Oakland: The Dolphins have played hard every week and instead of 3-7, they could easily be 5-6 or even 6-5. The Raiders are looking impressive and lead the AFC West at 7-4, but this seems like a game they could lose. Miami has a solid defense, and the Raiders have to travel East and play an early game. Dolphins win it late 24-20.

Atlanta (-2) over HOUSTON: The Texans are going with Tyler Yates after losing both Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart for the year to injuries. The Texans are not totally screwed for the playoffs, and they stand at 8-3. If they can go 2-3 down the stretch, then they will probably win their division at 10-6. This looks like a tall order for the Texans this week. Atlanta catches a break by getting the Texans this week and not a month ago.

Baltimore (-6) over CLEVELAND: All the Ravens will hear about this week is how they play down to the competition. They lost at Seattle and Jacksonville already this year, but this week they will be focused and ready when they head to Cleveland to take on the 4-7 Browns. The Ravens will take care of business on the road this week.

New York Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Redskins finally got their win last week to get to 4-7, and in come the Jets off a close win at home over the Bills. The Jets, at 6-5, need to play well and get some confidence again. This is the perfect matchup for them because Rex Grossman will start for the Skins. Look for a close game early, and then the Jets put it away in the second half. The Jets have to win this week and next week at home vs. KC to get them going again.

Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY: I have to admit that I was totally and completely wrong about Cam Newton. I thought he was going to struggle a lot this year, and that he wouldn't be a quality NFL QB, and he would be a borderline bust. Well, Newton has proved me wrong from day one. Here is the other thing about Cam: He is really fun to watch. Why else would you even pay attention to the Panthers? Every Sunday, I find myself flipping over to the Panthers game and watching at least a few drives with Cam at the helm. Once again, I'll take Cam on the road against the free-falling Bucs.

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH: The Bengals played valiantly in their defeat a few weeks ago at home to the Steelers, and I just have a feeling they are going to give the Steelers some fits again this week. The Steelers look like they are in that mode where they will just do what they have to do to win games down the stretch, and basically set themselves up for the playoffs, and no one is going to want to see them in January.

SAN FRANCISCO (-12) over St. Louis: The Niners will rebound after their loss at Baltimore on Thanksgiving and take out their frustration on the Rams this week. Much has been written and said about the Niners resurgence this year, but the bottom line is that coaching in the NFL really matters and Jim Harbaugh is proving that.

ARIZONA (+4) over Dallas: The Cowboys are riding high at 7-4, and this game looks like an easy victory for them, but with the Giants looming next week, you get the feeling that the Cowboys could be setting themselves up for a letdown this week in Arizona. It looks like Arizona might get Kevin Kolb back this week which might not be a good thing, but I like how the Cards have fought these last few weeks, and look for tight game in the Desert.

Green Bay (-6) over NEW YORK GIANTS: I have thought about picking the Giants all week, but I'm going to go away from them this week. They are just too banged up, and even if they lose this week, they will be 6-6 with four games to make a run at the playoffs. Remember, the Giants have two games left with Dallas to make up ground, and they have Washington at home and a "road" game against the Jets on Christmas Eve. The G-Men could get to 10-6 and it won't surprise me at all. Too much Aaron Rodgers and the Pack this week.

NEW ENGLAND (-20) over Indy: There is no talk about the "Greatest Rivalry in the NFL" this week as the 0-11 Colts head to Foxborough. 20 points is a lot to lay in the NFL, but the Patriots will stick it to the Colts this week in a bad way. By the way, the Patriots remind me of the 2006 Colts. Think about it: In '06 the Colts really struggled on defense, and their run defense was one of the worst in recent memory; however, once they got to the playoffs, no one could run on them, and they went on to win the Super Bowl. Same thing this year with Pats. Everyone has been killing their defense, and they struggle at pass defense, but they still have Tom Brady. Once the playoffs start, Bill Belichick will go to work on the defense and the AFC will still have to run through New England.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Detroit: The Lions will put up points on the Saints this week, but this game just looks like another offensive clinic by the Saints at home. I don't like giving up eight points to the Lions, but I'll feel pretty good about it once the Saints get off to a fast start like they did on Monday Night against the Giants. The Lions might still make the playoffs, but this one feels like a big night for Drew Brees.

San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: What another crappy game on Monday Night Football. I can't see the Chargers losing a seventh straight game. Also, don't put the nail in the coffin just yet on the Chargers. I know they are 4-7, but does anyone remember 2008? The Chargers aren't dead until they are officially knocked out of the playoffs.

MINNESOTA (-2) over Denver: Before I break down this game, can I get something off my chest about Tim Tebow. I know that he struggles as a passer, and I know he is not the most accurate QB in the NFL, but does every analyst and announcer have to try to top the other in their criticism of Tebow. Instead of just saying things like "Tebow's pass is off the mark" or "Tebow throw is too low for Eddie Royal," announcers/analysts have to go over the top to say how "awful" and "brutal" some of his throws are. It is just annoying, and no one said how great of a throw it was when he stood in the pocket on 3rd and 11 and drilled a 36 yard completion to Eric Decker late in the game at San Diego last week. Yes, he is inaccurate and he misses some easy throws, but give him credit for the two or three great throws he seems to make every game. Anyway, this game seems like a tough one for the Broncos for a few reasons. First, it is an early game in Minnesota. Second, the Vikings are not as bad as their 2-9 record would indicate. Third, Von Miller is a game-time decision with a busted thumb, and he is probably the most valuable player on Denver's defense. Lastly, after hearing all week that they are right in the middle of a possible playoff run, the Broncos are due for a letdown this week. It is hard to win four games in a row in the NFL let alone five.

Final Score: Minnesota-24 Denver-10

Thursday Night Football Pick!

Seattle (+3) over Philly: "It's the 4-7 Eagles at the 4-7 Seahawks in a must win game tonight on Thursday Night Football!" The rest of the the TNF games on NFL Network are plain awful, and it kicks off tonight with this thud. I'll take the Seahawks because it is Vince Young on the road, East Coast team going West on a short week, and I just can't stand Philly. Take the 'Hawks and the points at home.

Broncos Pull One Out Again Late at San Diego!

The Broncos went into San Diego yesterday against a desperate Chargers team. On the road, against a team that has owned them, Denver and Tim Tebow did it again with another improbable comeback win over the Chargers in overtime 16-13. Denver trailed 10-0 early in the second quarter, but a Tebow to Eric Decker touchdown pass late in the first half, cut the lead to 10-7. The second half played out just the way Broncos wanted it to: Keep it close, stick with the game plan on offense, play great defense, and win it late. Down 13-7, the Broncos were able to cut the lead to 13-10. With the help of a Nick Novak missed field goal, it became Tebow Time once again. Down by three and facing a 3rd and 11 from his own 25, Tebow stood in the pocket, waited, and finally found Eric Decker open deep. On his best throw of the game, Tebow threw a beautiful ball to Decker, who made an unbelievable diving catch for a 39 yard gain to the Chargers 36. Tebow then hit Dante Rosario down the sideline for a 23 yard gain down to the San Diego 12, and the Broncos were knocking on the door. After the Chargers held, with some help by some questionable Denver play-calling, the Broncos tied it at 13 with a Matt Prater field goal. Norv Turner went very conservative with the ball and over 1:34 left in the game, and the game headed to overtime. In OT, Tebow and the Broncos twice had possession. A challenged call from the booth overturned what would have been a Broncos first down on a completion from Tebow to Jeremiah Johnson on third and 11. Johnson's elbow hit down just a half yard short of the first down. The Chargers began to put together a drive, and Ryan Matthews began to run through the Denver defense. With the ball at the 35 yard line. The Broncos stuffed three straight runs, and it set up a 53 yard field goal attempt by Novak. Novak missed it right, and Denver had the ball for the third time in the extra frame. Tebow and the Broncos made them pay this time. Tebow sprinted right for a first down, up the middle for a short gain, and then Willis McGahee galloped for 24 yards to the San Diego 17. From there, Prater ended it with a dramatic 37 yard field goal, and the Broncos won it 16-13. The past four weeks have been as exciting and entertaining for a Broncos fan in years. There is really no way to describe it. The Broncos are now sitting at 6-5, and second in the AFC West. Also, they are only trailing the Bengals by a game for the final wild card spot. As remarkable as Tebow was late again, the defense deserves the credit. They harassed Philip Rivers all game long, and they were able to get stop after stop in crucial situations. The Broncos are not only believing in Tim Tebow. They believe in themselves, and that could make for a very fun next month for the Broncos and their fans. Here are my quick thoughts and observations from the game.......

1) Say what you want about Tim Tebow's passing ability, but with the game on the line Tebow delivered from the pocket. His 3rd down throw to Eric Decker was simply sensational, and he threw the ball well for most of the game. If it wasn't for a few big drops his numbers would have been better, and the Broncos offense might have scored more points. It is amazing to watch him every week. He is now 5-1 as a starter this year, and you can't argue with those numbers.

2) The Broncos defense is playing lights out. Elvis Dumervil had two sacks and is back to creating havoc. Von Miller is the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and his stop on Mike Tolbert late in overtime was tremendous. Their secondary is playing very well, and they finally got after Philip Rivers and kept him in check. The Orange Crush defense would be very proud of how the Broncos have played the last four games.

3) The turning point in the game was late in the first half. The Chargers had the ball at the Denver 44 with 6:08 left and up 10 points. A score there could have really put the Broncos in trouble. Instead Denver's defense got a three and out, and eventually Denver got the late score to make it 10-7.

4) I'm not going to go crazy about John Fox's decision making because he is playing the percentages and trusting his defense in overtime. Denver faced a 4th and 1 from their own 44 on the first possession, and Fox elected to punt. Denver got the ball back and faced a 4th and inches from their own 39, and again Fox elected to punt. It worked out in his favor, but if the Broncos lost, people would be looking at those two decisions again.

5) Willis McGahee continues to be a beast and he gained 117 yards on the ground yesterday. He is so good running the ball out of the spread attack. He simply gashed the Chargers on those inside runs, especially late in the game and in overtime.

6) The Chargers have been a thorn in the Broncos side the past five seasons. With their backs against the wall, you knew this was going to be a slugfest for the Broncos. They were able to keep it close, and they made the plays at the end to win it. It was so nice to see them bury Philip Rivers and walk out of San Diego with a huge win because the Chargers have owned them for so long. If you take out the Ed Hochuli game in 2008, the Broncos have only beaten the Chargers once since 2006.

7) The Broncos are now 6-5 and in the thick of the AFC West and AFC Playoff picture. They head to Minnesota next week to take on a feisty Vikings team. The bottom line is that the Broncos have made a remarkable turnaround from 1-4, and who knows where this could be headed. I just know one thing: Winning is contagious, and I just don't want this run to end.

Week 12 Picks!

As Bill Parcells used to say, "You want to be playing your best football around Thanksgiving." This motto was passed on to Bill Belichick and you will hear that a lot from not only Belichick, but a lot coaches this weekend in the NFL. From now through the end of the year, some teams will begin to hit their stride for the playoffs, while other teams will see their season turn upside down. Don't look at the NFL standings right now and don't even bother paying attention to potential seeds in each conference. It will not look like that come Christmas time and Week 17. This weekend we begin to find out who is going to make a run and who is going to fall off. The games get bigger each week, and this week gives us a glimpse into what is to come down the stretch in the 2011 season. Onto the picks for Week 12.......

Last Week's Record: 3-9-2

Overall Record: 60-75-11

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Arizona: The Rams have been really bad this season on offense. Everyone thought the Rams were going to win the NFC West, but the question is now that Steve Spagnuolo's job could be in jeopardy if they don't put together some wins the next six games. They should be able to win and cover at home this week against the equally disappointing Cardinals.

NY JETS (-8) over Buffalo: Every Jets fan was miserable after the Jets lost at Denver last week, but their schedule is going to get them back in the AFC playoff race. They host Buffalo this week, and then play at Washington and at home vs. KC. They should be 8-5 easily heading into their final three games.

CINCY (-7) over Cleveland: The Bengals played two tough games against the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks, only to come up short both times. Look for their defense to get the best of Colt McCoy and the Browns this week. Cincy gets to 7-4 with the win.

JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Houston: This pick is solely on the fact that I just don't know what to expect from Matt Leinart as the Texans starting QB. If Matt Schaub didn't go down to a season-ending injury, then Houston could have easily nailed down the number two seed in the AFC this year. We have to see what Leinart can do in these next few weeks before we hand the AFC South to the Texans.

Carolina (-3) over INDY: Cam Newton has to take care of business this week at Indy. The Panthers can play defense, but they might not need it this week. I love that the Colts absolutely suck this year. I love that they are the laughingstock of the NFL. It just makes me happy.

Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE: I'm not a Tampa Bay fan, but I just have a hunch that they pull this game out. The Bucs played hard in Lambeau last week, and Tennessee is just one of those teams that you can't trust as a favorite.

Minnesota (+9) over ATLANTA: This game looks like an easy win for the Falcons, but I'm going to bet on a late cover by the Vikings to make it closer than expected.

OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago: If Jay Cutler doesn't go down, then the Bears would have easily made the playoffs, been the five seed in the NFC, and they would have been very dangerous in the playoffs. I'm not ready to just think that Caleb Hanie can step in and guide the ship. I know he played well in the second half of the NFC Title Game, but that was one half of football.

Washington (+4) over SEATTLE: The Redskins started 3-1, but have now lost six straight games and are now 3-7. Mike Shanahan can't lose seven straight can he?

New England (-3) over PHILLY: Philly is banged up and Vince Young will start again for the injured Mike Vick. New England's schedule down the stretch looks very winnable, and it should start with a big win at home over the Eagles.

Pittsburgh (-9) over KANSAS CITY: Can the Steelers blow this game on Sunday Night against Tyler Palko? I don't think so.

New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: I'm going to buck the trend and take the Giants on the road. Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will bury the G-Men on Monday Night, but the Giants will respond with a very gutty effort.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver: Can the suddenly surging Broncos deliver the kill shot to the Chargers? Can the Chargers lose their sixth straight game? Can Tim Tebow deliver the type of passing game to quiet all the critics? Will Philip Rivers snap out of his funk against a team that he simply owns? There are so many storylines in this game, that this should have been flexed in for the Sunday Night game over Pitt-KC. I just can't see the Chargers losing at home in an absolute must win game.

Final Score: San Diego-27 Denver-9

Orton Waives Goodbye and Thanksgiving Day Picks!

The Broncos waived Kyle Orton on Tuesday. After the Broncos started 1-4, Orton was benched in favor of Tim Tebow. From the moment Orton was benched, you knew his career in Denver was over. He will be a free agent next season, and there was no chance the Broncos were going to sign him. Kansas City claimed Orton off waivers, and it looks like Orton will get a chance to QB the Chiefs down the stretch, especially since Matt Cassel is on injured reserve. This does set up the possibility of an Orton-Tebow showdown in Denver as the Chiefs and Broncos will square off in Week 17. We'll worry about Orton down the road when we get to that point, but trust me I'm not shedding a tear about the end of the Kyle Orton Era in Denver. I wanted Orton gone in the middle of last season, and I finally got my wish. Of all the QBs that were tabbed as the successor to John Elway (A list that includes Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler), he was my least favorite and least talented. I'm sure someone will look at his numbers and say that he will somehow get the Chiefs into the playoffs and win the AFC West, but when you watch Orton game-by-game and snap-by-snap, you realize is simply isn't the guy. Let's just hope it doesn't come back to bite us the last game of the season.

Before I get to my Thanksgiving Day picks, did the NFL hit a home run with this year's slate of Thanksgiving games? It is great that the Lions are good this year, so adding them and the Packers is fantastic. The Cowboys are having a good season at 6-4, and having them go up against a feisty underdog like Miami, winners of three in a row, should be at least somewhat competitive. Lastly, the NFL Network nightcap features the Harbaugh brothers doing battle with their two teams a combined 16-4. Not a bad day for NFL football. One last thing on the Turkey Day matchups. I really liked the idea by the NFL to add the third game on Thanksgiving Night back in 2006. The only problem with the idea is that the games have been pretty non-competitive. Here are the games dating back to its' inception in 2006:

1)2006-Kansas City-19 Denver-10 (The "Jake Plummer Gets Benched" Game for all those Broncos fans out there.)

2)2007-Indy-31 Atlanta-13 (The "Oh Shit We Scheduled This Before We Found Out Michael Vick Was Running a Dog Fighting Ring" Game.)

3)2008-Philly-48 Arizona-20 (The "Never Rely on Arizona Or Other Western Teams Traveling East on a Short Week" Game.)

4)2009-Denver-26 Giants-6 (The "Josh McDaniels Was a Decent Coach For One Night" Game, and The "Moment the 2009 Giants Mailed It In" Game.)

5)2010- Jets-26 Cincy-10 (The "Hey Shove the Jets Down Everyones Throat" Game, and The "Wow! Carson Palmer Really Blows" Game.)

As you can see, the Thursday Night Thanksgiving Classic hasn't exactly lived up to that billing, but let's hope this year's game is a little better than the previous five matchups.

Here are the picks for Thanksgiving..........

Green Bay (-6) over DETROIT: I was going to pick the Lions all week mainly because they haven't won a Thanksgiving Game since 2006, Ford Field would be rocking, and the Packers are due for a loss; however, when I looked at it closer, I think the Packers win this game by at least 10 points. Here is why: First, the home field is important for the Lions, but their crowd isn't going to be pumped up for an early kickoff (12:30 EST) as opposed for a Monday Night Game like they played against the Bears in October. Plus, the Lions aren't playing well lately, and the Packers played Tampa Bay tighter last week, so they will be on their game this short week. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to continue to be undefeated for one more week.

DALLAS (-7) over Miami: The Cowboys find themselves at 6-4 and tied for the lead in the NFC East. The Dolphins come in at 3-7 and winners of their last three. A lot of people have told the Cowboys how difficult this game could be and it is a classic trap game. I'm not buying it one bit. Give the Dolphins credit: They have played hard all year long, but this week the Cowboys dominate. I just can't shake the image of DeMarcus Ware tracking down Matt Moore all game long. The Boys win easily.

BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco: The 49ers have totally exceeded expectations and find themselves at 9-1. Every week, I am waiting for the Niners to play a dog game, and every week they prove me wrong. I just don't see them winning this game. Trust me, I'm not a believer in Baltimore, but this game just seems like a game the Ravens pull out near the end. Should be a fun game to watch, but look for the Ravens to finish the Niners off late.

Tebow's Comeback Beats Jets!

Last night's 17-13 victory by the Broncos over the New York Jets was a throwback to the glory days of my childhood. How many times did I watch John Elway swoop in like a superhero and bring the Broncos back late in the fourth quarter, especially at home in the old Mile High Stadium. Mile High would be rocking and shaking as Elway and the Broncos would pull out another improbable victory. The Broncos have been very shaky the last few years at home, and there isn't the same "Mile High Magic" that we are accustomed to seeing; however, last night was one of those nights for Denver fans. The man at the controls this time: Tim Tebow. Tebow led a 95 yard drive to win the game for the Broncos. Tebow accounted for 92 of the 95 yards both on the ground and in the air. Tebow finished off the drive with a 20 yard touchdown run with just 50 seconds left to give the Broncos the lead. Denver's defense got a huge sack from Von Miller, and eventually swatted away a final Jet pass to secure the victory. The Broncos offense was bottled up the entire game, and Denver couldn't take advantage of good field position all night long. Denver was stopped on a 4th and 1 from the Jets 20 yard line in the first quarter. Another drive started in Jet territory following a huge kick return by Cassius Vaughn. The result of that drive equaled no points. The Broncos recovered a Joe McKnight fumble early in the fourth quarter with the game tied 10-10 on a kick return. Once again Tebow and the offense didn't move it an inch. The Jets took their 13-10 lead and punted Denver down to their own five with just over five minutes to go. Then, Tebow took over. He mixed the run and the pass, and converted a few third downs to set up his game winning run. It was one of the most exciting moments I've had as a Broncos fan in a long time. The bottom line is that Tebow wins. As bad as he might play in the game, if he gets a chance to win it, he will make the plays to win the game. Is it unconventional? Sure. Is this a long-term solution? Probably not, but he is now 4-1 as a starter this year, and the Broncos are miraculously 5-5. Forget about stats and all the other stuff, Tim Tebow is helping the Broncos win. That's all that matters at the end of the day. Like I said, last night was an old school night for me. One of my favorite moments of the telecast was when they showed John Elway clapping from the press box after Tebow scored. It is crazy to think that once Elway was the Broncos QB, and now he is running the organization from the front office. It brought me back in time. Instead of jumping up and down in my Elway jersey as a nine year old, there I was jumping, clapping, and screaming in my basement with my Tebow jersey, and the new Mile High Stadium was rocking again-just like old times.

Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game:

1) The Broncos running game was stuffed pretty much all night. Willis McGahee could use the extra days off and get ready for San Diego in Week 12. His fumble was huge in the first quarter and gave the Jets the field position to tie it at 3.

2) The Broncos defense was very impressive again. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil set the tone with their sack on Mark Sanchez on the third play of the game for the Jets. Miller's sack on Sanchez on the final drive was a "jump out of your seat" type of play. Andre Goodman was solid all night, and his interception of Sanchez and subsequent return for a touchdown was the turning point late in the third quarter.

3) The Broncos offense squandered so many opportunities, as I mentioned earlier. Imagine how the game might have played out if they converted some of those possessions?

4) One camera shot that stood out was the look of bewilderment by Rex Ryan after Tebow scored. He was just pacing up and down the sideline shaking his head and looking down at the ground.

5) I loved the reaction and call by Brad Nessler on Tebow's touchdown run. The excitement in his voice was great, and I loved how Mike Mayock just laughed as Tebow was running it in. It was almost like Mayock knew this was how the game was going to end

6) Lastly, what else could you say about Tebow. Down by three with 95 yards to go against the vaunted Jets defense. Incredible drive and incredible moment by Tebow. He is just a winner, and he plays great down the stretch in these games. If he puts some sort of legitimate passing game together, he could be the ultimate weapon.

Here are my Week 11 picks.........

Last Week's Record: 6-9-0

Overall Record: 57-66-7

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (-6) over Tennessee: The Falcons aren't going to lose two in a row at home. They shut down the Titans and Chris Johnson to get to 6-4.

Buffalo (+2) over MIAMI: The Dolphins have won two in a row, and the Bills are 5-4 and fading fast. This looks like a Miami win, but the Bills get the big road victory.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincy: The Ravens played terrible in the loss at Seattle last week, while the Bengals came up short to the Steelers. This game will be close, but I'll take the Ravens at home.

CLEVELAND (-1) over Jacksonville: How bad was that missed field goal by the Browns last week to lose the game to the Rams? How bad was my sleeper pick of the Browns this year? Cleveland wins a close one at home.

MINNESOTA (PICK) over Oakland: Broncos fans have to root like heck for the Vikings this week. The Vikings win it late and the Raiders fall to 5-5.

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT: The Lions will win this game, but remember that Cam Newton always covers. I don't like how the Lions have played the last four weeks, and the Panthers will keep it close.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay: The Bay of Pigs resumes in Lambeau. Just lock it up: The Pack and the over.

Dallas (-7) over Washington: I've picked Mike Shanahan too many times the last few weeks, and I got burned every time. Don't look now, but here come the Cowboys!

SAN FRANCISCO (-9) over Arizona: This looks like a 20-10 Niner win. I'm sold on the Niners, and they look like a 12 win team, and the 2 seed in the NFC. How funny is it that Kevin Kolb might not get his job back after losing it to John Skelton?

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Seattle: Tough one to watch on Sunday. Go with the Rams at home.

CHICAGO (-3) over San Diego: I'm shocked that this line is that low. The Chargers are all banged up, and the Bears are playing really well right now. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers rekindle their epic feud one more time. The last time these two faced off, Cutler was on the Broncos and they were in the midst of imploding and losing the division at the hands of the Chargers. This time, Cutler wins, and sets the Chargers back to 4-6.

NY GIANTS (-5) over Philly: If Mike Vick was going to play in this game, I would have taken the Eagles. Without Vick, the Eagles don't have a good shot-especially with Vince Young calling the shots. The Giants can put the nail in the coffin on the Eagles this week with a win. They'll get it done.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Kansas City: Tyler Palko on the road, in Foxboro, against Brady and Belichick, on Monday Night Football. I think I'll take the Pats.