As Bill Parcells used to say, "You want to be playing your best football around Thanksgiving." This motto was passed on to Bill Belichick and you will hear that a lot from not only Belichick, but a lot coaches this weekend in the NFL. From now through the end of the year, some teams will begin to hit their stride for the playoffs, while other teams will see their season turn upside down. Don't look at the NFL standings right now and don't even bother paying attention to potential seeds in each conference. It will not look like that come Christmas time and Week 17. This weekend we begin to find out who is going to make a run and who is going to fall off. The games get bigger each week, and this week gives us a glimpse into what is to come down the stretch in the 2011 season. Onto the picks for Week 12.......
Overall Record: 60-75-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
ST.LOUIS (-3) over Arizona: The Rams have been really bad this season on offense. Everyone thought the Rams were going to win the NFC West, but the question is now that Steve Spagnuolo's job could be in jeopardy if they don't put together some wins the next six games. They should be able to win and cover at home this week against the equally disappointing Cardinals.
NY JETS (-8) over Buffalo: Every Jets fan was miserable after the Jets lost at Denver last week, but their schedule is going to get them back in the AFC playoff race. They host Buffalo this week, and then play at Washington and at home vs. KC. They should be 8-5 easily heading into their final three games.
CINCY (-7) over Cleveland: The Bengals played two tough games against the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks, only to come up short both times. Look for their defense to get the best of Colt McCoy and the Browns this week. Cincy gets to 7-4 with the win.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Houston: This pick is solely on the fact that I just don't know what to expect from Matt Leinart as the Texans starting QB. If Matt Schaub didn't go down to a season-ending injury, then Houston could have easily nailed down the number two seed in the AFC this year. We have to see what Leinart can do in these next few weeks before we hand the AFC South to the Texans.
Carolina (-3) over INDY: Cam Newton has to take care of business this week at Indy. The Panthers can play defense, but they might not need it this week. I love that the Colts absolutely suck this year. I love that they are the laughingstock of the NFL. It just makes me happy.
Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE: I'm not a Tampa Bay fan, but I just have a hunch that they pull this game out. The Bucs played hard in Lambeau last week, and Tennessee is just one of those teams that you can't trust as a favorite.
Minnesota (+9) over ATLANTA: This game looks like an easy win for the Falcons, but I'm going to bet on a late cover by the Vikings to make it closer than expected.
OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago: If Jay Cutler doesn't go down, then the Bears would have easily made the playoffs, been the five seed in the NFC, and they would have been very dangerous in the playoffs. I'm not ready to just think that Caleb Hanie can step in and guide the ship. I know he played well in the second half of the NFC Title Game, but that was one half of football.
Washington (+4) over SEATTLE: The Redskins started 3-1, but have now lost six straight games and are now 3-7. Mike Shanahan can't lose seven straight can he?
New England (-3) over PHILLY: Philly is banged up and Vince Young will start again for the injured Mike Vick. New England's schedule down the stretch looks very winnable, and it should start with a big win at home over the Eagles.
Pittsburgh (-9) over KANSAS CITY: Can the Steelers blow this game on Sunday Night against Tyler Palko? I don't think so.
New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: I'm going to buck the trend and take the Giants on the road. Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will bury the G-Men on Monday Night, but the Giants will respond with a very gutty effort.
SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver: Can the suddenly surging Broncos deliver the kill shot to the Chargers? Can the Chargers lose their sixth straight game? Can Tim Tebow deliver the type of passing game to quiet all the critics? Will Philip Rivers snap out of his funk against a team that he simply owns? There are so many storylines in this game, that this should have been flexed in for the Sunday Night game over Pitt-KC. I just can't see the Chargers losing at home in an absolute must win game.
Final Score: San Diego-27 Denver-9
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