Combine Thoughts and Opinions

The NFL Scouting Combine took place over the weekend in Indianapolis, and it wraps up on Tuesday with the DBs participating in drills. The combine is still a very important event as far as preparing for the draft, but it is as vital as it once was. Now, many players will participate in only a few events in the combine and many players will then workout at their own pro day at their college campus in March and April. After the combine, there will be players that will rise up the draftboards and there will be players that take a dip in their draft status. It will be interesting to see which players really increase their value after what happens in the combine, but it won't make or break it. There is also a lot of news that usually comes out from the combine because all of the head coaches and general managers are there. Unfortunately, there are a lot of stories that come out that are simply non-stories. Here are some of my thoughts and opinions on what I read, saw and heard from this weekend's NFL Scouting Combine.

1) I'm not really putting too much stock into John Fox's quote that Kyle Orton is the Broncos starting QB right now. ESPN and NFL Network all ran with the story saying that Orton is definitely Denver's starter this year and basically naming him our starter for the season opener. My thought is that it is February and not even training camp. What coaches say now in February is a lot different then what they say in August or September. I'll give you a couple of examples: Two years ago at the Combine, Rex Ryan was interviewed. He said that the Jets were really happy with Kellen Clemens, and that he thought Clemens was going to be their QB and he was excited for that. He also said that the Jets are really happy with their QB situation. Everyone thought that the Jets would go defense in the first round and give Clemens a chance at QB. Well, the Jets then promptly traded up and drafted Mark Sanchez in the first round of the 2009 Draft. Fox left it up that there will be a competition for the QB position in Denver, but that Orton is the guy right now. Again, I'm not going to put a lot of stock into Fox's comments, but I do think the possibility of trading Orton (The best move in my opinion) won't happen this offseason. A lot will play out before we get to Week 1.
2) I don't know who Denver is going to take at number two overall, but I will be happy if it is one of these players: Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley, Marcel Dareus, Patrick Peterson and Von Miller. If it isn't one of those guys, then I think the Broncos are making a mistake.
3) I'm not thrilled with this year's QB class. Blaine Gabbert doesn't really do it for me, Jake Locker is athletic and intriguing but his career seems to remind me of Chad Henne's career arc. Cam Newton has the potential and the upside, but his style is like Tim Tebow's and I'm afraid that he could be Vince Young 2.0. Ryan Mallet reminds me of Ryan Leaf and I wouldn't draft him if I was a NFL GM.
4) After watching the combine on NFL Network, Mike Mayock is the best NFL draft expert out there right now. He is so good and the reason why I like him is that he always seems to refer back to gamefilm and specific games when he is breaking down a player. He gives you specific plays and moments when talking about a certain player. Mel Kiper just sticks to his shtick that he has used for two decades, and Todd McShay just likes to use jargon to make it sound like he knows what he is talking about. Mayock blows them all away, and I love watching how enthusiastic he is when watching these players.
5) D-Day is Thursday for the NFL as the CBA expires. It is a big week for the NFL, and hopefully they will be able to at least extend the deadline, so they can come to some sort of agreement.

2010 NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS- A LOOK BACK

As I stated many times, my favorite column of the year is the one that I write in August that previews the upcoming NFL season. For me it is a challenge that is so much fun because of the craziness and parity that comes along with each NFL year. It is fun to try and be a little bold and make some predictions, and then root for some of those to actually pan out as the season progresses. There are little tricks and formulas that I have tried to follow in my goal of somehow correctly predicting all 12 playoff teams. I know that is a goal that is highly unattainable, but it is fun to try and predict the season, figure out who exceeds expectations and who falls short, and then look back on what happened after the season ends. Before I get to my review of my own predictions, I want to see if the standard NFL formulas still held up this season. For example, every year at least one team that lost at least 10 games the year before makes the playoffs the following year.

2009:

Kansas City 4-12

Seattle 5-11

2010:

Kansas City 10-6 AFC West Champs

Seattle 7-9 NFC West Champs (Seattle's 2010 season is going to throw a lot of things off, but they still did make the playoffs)

Another quirky NFL formula that I wrote about midseason is this: Every year at least one team that is 6-2 at the halfway point, fails to make the playoffs. Also, at least one team that is 3-5 at the midway mark will make the playoffs. This data goes back to 2002. Here is what transpired this year:

New York Giants: 6-2 at midseason/finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks: 3-5 at midseason/finished 7-9 and made the playoffs.

Another formula that seems to come to fruition is the amount of teams that make it back to the playoffs for a second straight year. Usually, you can count on six out of the 12 teams from the prior year miss the playoffs the following year. Here is how it brokedown last year:

2009 Playoff Teams:

New England, Jets, Cincy, Baltimore, Indy, San Diego, Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona

2010 Playoff Teams:

New England, Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy, Kansas City, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle.

In 2010, 7 teams made the playoffs back to back (NE, Jets, Baltimore, Indy, Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans) and five missed out (Cincy, San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona). However, when you look back at least five teams have missed the playoffs back to back years in every season going back to realignment in 2002.

Division winners usually averages to four out of eight division winners repeat the following year. Here are the 2009 Divisional Winners:

New England, Cincy, Indy, San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona

Here are the 2010 Divisional Winners:

New England, Pittsburgh, Indy, Kansas City, Philly, Chicago, Atlanta, Seattle

In 2010, there were six out of eight new divisional winners, so the theory stills holds true that there will be at least four new divisional winners each year.

*Next time, I will breakdown my NFC Predictions and see what I hit and what I missed

Champ Bailey Re-signs with Broncos!!!

The Broncos announced yesterday that they resigned CB Champ Bailey to a four year $43 million dollar contract. About $22 million of it is guaranteed, so both sides got what they wanted. Bailey got a chance at some financial security the next two seasons, and the Broncos were able to add a little to get more of what they want and need-which is Bailey back in a Denver uniform. As I stated last week, this was a move that Denver had to make because it affected them in every area of their team and organization. Bailey is one of Denver's top two defensive players (I would put him a smidge below Elvis Dumervil) and his 2010 campaign was one of his better seasons since 2006 as a Bronco. Losing him at CB, just adds another need that Denver would have to plug on their putrid defensive unit. Plus, Bailey has some versatility down to road to maybe even transition to Safety like Rod Woodson did at the tail end of his career. From an fan standpoint, signing Champ was huge. Bronco fans have been burned badly the last two years. After losing Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Peyton Hillis all in the last two years, the Bronco fans could not handle losing one of their most likable and best players again. Think about it: If we lost Champ, then we would have lost three of our best players on our team in the last three offseasons. The bottom line is that you still need good players to win, and the Broncos front office at least got this one right. They knew and John Fox and the new coaching staff knew that Champ had to be apart of this rebuilding process. I loved the quote that Champ said on the conference call with the Denver media when he talked about the grass is not always greener on the other side and he thinks this can turn around quickly and people will be surprised that it will get better quicker in Denver. Let's hope he is right and by him staying with Denver, then it will certainly help the Broncos get back to the top of the AFC West and back into the playoffs.

Champ Bailey's Contract Situation

News filtered out of Denver yesterday that Champ Bailey's contract talks with the Denver Broncos have hit another another snag with the negotiations and it looks like Bailey might be on his way out of town as a free agent. Does any good news ever come out of Denver in the last two and half years? Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and now Champ Bailey all have had their share of contract talks, negotiations, and trade rumors. Cutler was traded, followed by Marshall, and now Bailey will join them on their way out of Denver. Cutler pouted and bitched like a crybaby in his situation, Marshall has so many off the field issues and was a cancer in the locker room, so it was understandable why both eventually skipped town, but Champ is different. He has said all the right things, done all the right things, been a great person for the team on the field and in the locker room. Why not bring him back? Why let another top notch player go? Sometimes you just have to suck it up and pay a guy money that you didn't want to. I'm sure the Ravens didn't want to pay Ray Lewis all that money a few years ago when he became a free agent, but they knew what kind of player Lewis was and what type of presence he had in the locker room. The Ravens sucked it and paid him. Bailey is in the same category as Lewis in my opinion. The Broncos should do the same for him as well. Keeping Champ a Bronco can't really be a bad thing. He is coming off one of his best seasons as a Bronco, he is still a Pro Bowl level player, and he is a good team and locker room guy. I know Denver might not want to spend all that money on a 32 year old cornerback, but it is the right thing to do. Many people think that at this point and for this amount of money, Denver should allow Bailey to leave. I understand that point of view, but do you have any confidence in John Elway or Brian Xanders being able to replace Bailey on this defense right now. Maybe down the line this front office will be capable of doing that but I don't have the confidence in them right now to let Bailey go, and sign/acquire big time players on that defensive line or in the secondary.



In the end, Bailey will probably leave Denver, and the Broncos won't even franchise tag him. Bailey will go to a team that is close to winning a Super Bowl (Jets, Ravens, maybe Falcons), and the Broncos will state that they will replace him in the secondary and use that money to rebuild their defense for the long haul. It is a shame, but Champ Bailey will be gone and the Bronco fans will lose another one of their favorite and best players. I'll ask the question again: Does any good news come out of Dove Valley anymore?

Labor Pains in the NFL

I remember the last time there was supposed to be NFL football on a Sunday in the fall, and there were no games on. It was in September of 1987. The NFL players had just struck and there was no games played and no agreement in sight. I remember watching as CBS tried to fill the programming void by replaying the previous year's Super Bowl, which was Super Bowl XXI. As Brent Musberger and Irv Cross were breaking down the first half between the Giants and Broncos, I just couldn't understand why the hell there is no football. I couldn't understand why the NFL players would go on strike. Needless to say it was an awful Sunday. We all know what happened next: The owners used replacement players for three games, a lot of NFL players crossed the picket line and the NFL returned to normalcy soon thereafter. For the first time since 1987, there is a serious possibility that the NFL could have a labor and work stoppage that could affect the playing of games next fall. How did we get to this point? Why would anyone involved in the NFL screw this up? Could this be the downfall of the league? Let's take a look at some of these questions and others as we do a little "Question/Answer" regarding the current labor war in the NFL.

-How did we get to this point of labor conflict?

This storm has been brewing since 2006. In March of 2006, the players argued that in the next CBA agreement they wanted more piece of the pie. The owners resisted but Paul Tagliabue was in the final days of his career as NFL Commissioner. Gene Upshaw, head of the NFLPA, gave Tagliabue and the owners a hardline offer that gave the players a significant portion of the NFL revenue pie. Tagliabue, who didn't want to leave on the heels of a lockout or labor unrest for the first time in his career, got the owners to agree and vote on this deal with an option of opting out of the agreement in 2008 if they felt that the CBA wasn't working. Many people felt that in respect to Tagliabue and to the opt out clause, that the owners voted to agree to this new CBA. Many NFL experts, writers, and analysts back then said that this was just a quelling of the storm and many expected the owners to opt out as soon as they had the chance to do so. Of course, the owners opted out in 2008, and here we are in 2011 facing a lockout and labor unrest.

-Who is right and who is wrong in your opinion?

I actually am siding with the owners on this one. Look, the players got the better half of the deal in 2006, and it is time that the owners get a little payback in this deal. The owners are making money but they aren't making the kind of money they made back in era of 1993-2006. Stadium debts, rising expenses and costs, and a different economic climate all translate into the owners looking to get some kickback in this deal. They won't open their books, which is fine for me, but there is obviously some issues with a lot of these teams and their finances. The only team that you can view the books publicly is the Green Bay Packers because they are publicly owned. In 2006, the Packers made $34 million dollars of profit. Last year, the Packers made $ 9 million. There is obviously a decrease, and I think the owners should get a fair deal this time around.

-What is the major issue dividing these two camps?

It all comes down to the distribution of the revenue for the players and the owners. In 2006, the players wanted more piece of the pie, and they got it. Now, the owners want more of that revenue pie, and they are going to fight to get it. Without getting too technical, the NFL is about a $9 billion dollar business. The owners get a billion off the top and then it is distributed to the players and to the clubs. In 2006, the players were able to get a percentage of that revenue out of all streams of revenue that the league makes. The owners would like to swing it back the other way. There are some reports that say the two sides are $1 billion dollars apart. The bottom line is that if both sides could come up with what revenue pot are they splitting up, and how much each will take, then they could get this deal done. It sounds easy, but I would assume the players aren't going to back down, and the owners are trying to take a lot more then they will probably end up with. My solution: Go back to what they were working off pre-2006 CBA. The players might not like it, but the game will continue to grow. As the game grows, then the revenue of the league will grow, which in turn will help the players make more money. The other issues we have been hearing about, the 18 game schedule and the rookie wage scale, can easily be figured out once they get close to the real meat and potatoes of this deal.

-Is there going to be a lockout and no football in September?

As much as experts and insiders keep intimating, I still don't think there will be lockout. If there is one, then it will only last a few weeks or a month. We will definitely be seeing games in September at the regularly scheduled times too. Mark that down. Don't buy all the negative hype and press. Peter King and Adam Schefter are going to talk to members on both sides of the negotiating teams and many of those same members will probably say things that might lean towards a lockout or workstoppage. I don't buy any of that for a second. It is all apart of negotiation. NFL people know which writers and media members are read and listened to. They know that if they tell Peter King that a lockout is definite, then King will put that into his MMQB column and every football fan in America will begin to talk and think about the lockout. Members of the other side of the bargaining table will also read it or hear about it and then continue to think that certain side is dead serious about this whole labor situation. It is all a negotiating ploy. The two sides met for seven days last week with a federal mediator. They will meet again next Tuesday with the mediator and try to resolve the issues before the deadline on March 4. I can see there being a "lockout" on that date, but then after a few weeks going by without any talks, there will be some secret meetings between the NFL owners, Commissioner Goodell, DeMaurice Smith, and NFLPA members. Both sides will forge an agreement by around April 1st. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NFL break the news of the agreement during the NCAA Final Four and the opening week of the Major League Baseball just to stick it to them. There will be stories of how Goodell and Smith are the heroes of this and how they just couldn't let this lockout continue and ruin the sport. There will be tales of someone like John Mara, the Giants owner, pleading with the members of both sides for cooler heads to prevail and do what is right for the shield just like his father, Wellington Mara, helped create the revenue sharing model that assisted in making the NFL what it is today. All these stories will leak out and both sides will claim victory. The owners will get a better economic structure, and the players will have avoided the 18 game schedule. Everyone will be happy and the offseason free agency period will begin. It is such an easy story to write, I could already envision some NFL hack like Gary Myers or Rick Gosselin getting their pencils sharpened. There is no way we are headed to the NFL Draft without a labor deal, and there is no way there won't be games played on Sunday September 11, 2011-the first Sunday of the NFL season.

Offseason News

Here are some newsworthy moments from the past week that I wanted to touch upon. First, Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas tore his Achilles tendon this week while he was working out in Atlanta. This is a huge setback for Thomas, and it is just another blemish on his young career. He was injured in pre-Draft workouts last year, and then he was injured again in training camp. Finally, Thomas was healthy and had a big game in Week 2 against Seattle. Thomas then suffered a concussion against Baltimore in Week 5, and then he was hurt later on in the year and missed five of the last six games. I just have a feeling that Thomas might be one of those guys that just can't stay healthy. This is a major injury and the Broncos stated that Thomas could be facing a 6-8 month recovery. Eight months would put Thomas back on the field in October, but you have to wonder how effective he is going to be. Fortunately, the injury to Thomas was the one posistion that the Broncos actually have quality depth. Brandon Lloyd is a Pro Bowler and our best receiver. Jabar Gaffney is a solid pro and solid player. Eddie Royal, who is recovering from offseason hip surgery, is due back in training by May, and he is obviously a good player for us-especially underneath and in the slot. Plus, throw in the development of Eric Decker, the third round pick in 2010. Decker got more playing time as the season went on, and he will have to step up next season. Hopefully, Thomas can make a full recovery and make some sort of contribution in 2011.

I forgot to mention that I was very happy to see that Shannon Sharpe was elected into the Hall of Fame. In my opinion, Sharpe is one of the greatest Tight Ends in the history of the NFL. I am very happy another member of those great Super Bowl winning Broncos teams is getting recognition. John Elway and Gary Zimmerman are already in the Hall, now Sharpe joins them to make three members of that 1997 offense are in the Hall of Fame. He was a great receiving tight end, and he became a better blocker year after year. The Broncos killed teams over the middle with Sharpe for so many years. He would take advantage of linebackers in coverage, and even domintated safties who tried to match up with him. From a personal standpoint, Sharpe was/is my second favorite Bronco after John Elway. He was a great player, made big plays in big games, dominated his position, and was a well needed personality and mouthpiece for those Broncos teams. I was devastated when Sharpe left Denver to go to Baltimore as a free agent in 2001. I was overjoyed when he signed back with Denver in 2002. The moments that always stand out for me are these when I think about Sharpe's career: His 1993 season finale game at the Raiders in the LA Coliseum. He caught 6 passes for 115 yards and two touchdowns and he completely dominated the game. Sharpe followed that up with a 13 catch day for 156 yards and a touchdown in a wildcard loss to the Raiders the next week. Sharpe was unstoppable in those two games, and he really jumped in the conversation of big time players because both were national televised late games. The 1994 season opener at home versus San Diego also jumps out as well. It was a Sunday Night Football game on TNT, and Sharpe was fantastic. He caught 9 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown late to give Denver a 34-30. Unfortunately, Denver lost the lead and the game 37-34, but Sharpe was again showed up on the big stage, and he was really all that Elway had in 1993 and 1994. One thing about Sharpe's career was that he made big catches and big plays in a lot of big games. The biggest play and most memorable play Sharpe made in my mind was the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh in 1997. On third down and six with the Broncos backed up in their own end and up by three, Denver needed a first down to ice the game. Sharpe got open over the middle and basically snatched a line drive throw from Elway to secure the victory. People will remember the famous "Calling the President" routine in the rout of New England in 1996, they will remember his funny sideline banter, or his flexing routine after a touchdown, but I will always remember Shannon Sharpe as a tight end who dominated from his position and made big plays in crucial and pivotal games. Congratulations goes out to Shannon Sharpe. The newest member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Thoughts on the 2010 season!

The Super Bowl is in the rearview mirror, and as of today everyone is back to 0-0. The Packers have had their celebration and parade, and now every team in the league is working towards acheiving the goal that the Packers just accomplished- the Super Bowl and the Lombardi Trophy. Some teams are close, and some are very far off, but now is the time that teams can set themselves up to get closer to that championship. Before we look ahead to the murky waters ahead for the NFL, let's look back at some of the winners and losers of the 2010 postseason:

Editors Note: I need to do a little housecleaning here: I finished with a winning record on my picks in the regular season (130-119-9), but I struggled in the playoffs (4-7). Overall, my final record for picking games for the 2010 season was 134-126-9. It is my first winning season since I started this blog in 2008, and if I won money this year, then I could just imagine how bad Vegas got killed this year. It was a very easy year to pick in the regular season-especially early in the year. The playoffs were very predictable, but I kept going against the public grain, and I got burned for it. I am happy to finish over .500 for the year, and I look to stay above .500 again next season.

Winners:

-Obviously, the Green Bay Packers are the big winners. They are 8-4 and in position to win the NFC North, then lose to Detroit and Aaron Rodgers get concussed. They lose valiantly at New England on SNF the next week with Matt Flynn doing his best Tom Brady impersonation, and they fall to 8-6. They have to beat both the Giants and Bears back to back weeks to make the playoffs. They bomb the Giants 45-17 and beat the "Play It Balls To The Wall" Bears 10-3 in Week 17 to qualify as the sixth seed in the NFC. Three straight playoff road wins over Vick and the Eagles, the Falcons in the Georgia Dome, and the Bears-this time in Soldier Field. To top it off, they beat the Steelers 31-25 in the Super Bowl after losing Donald Driver and Charles Woodson. After the whole Brett Favre drama, the Packers stuck to their guns and won their fourth Super Bowl in their history.

-Although the Steelers lost Super Bowl XLV to Green Bay, they will be a force for years to come. They beat their rival, the Ravens, in the divisional round 31-24. Trailing 21-7 at the half, they came storming back to knock out their foes from the AFC North. Then, they absolutely jumped all over the Jets in the first half of the AFC Championship Game 24-3. They were able to hold on and win it 24-19. Although they battled back and fell short to the Packers, Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin will be back to a Super Bowl soon in the very near future.

-The Seahawks are definitely winners after this postseason. To get in at 7-9, and then beat the defending Super Bowl champions at home is something that the Seahawks and their fans can very proud of. Anything after that wildcard win over the Saints was going to be gravy anyway.

--Don't put the nail in the coffin of Peyton Manning and the Colts. Injuries absolutely destroyed the Colts this year, yet they still gutted out a 10-6 record, AFC South Title, and a playoff berth. Plus, they were up 16-14 at home against the Jets, and if they don't let Antonio Cromartie get a big return on a kickoff, they win that playoff game. The Colts and Manning will be back with a vengeance next year.

Losers:

- The New England Patriots should be very bitter right now. All offseason, the Pats are going to replay that Jets game in their minds. Three things I'll remember from that game: Tom Brady's interception on the first drive of the game, Alge Crumpler's drop in the endzone that made NE kick a field goal instead of taking a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, and the ill-advised fake punt on 4th and 3 with just over a minute left in the half and the Pats trailing 7-3. Those three moments will be eating at the Pats all year. If they play better, then they beat the Jets, and definitely beat the Steelers in AFC Championship. The Patriots are not going anywhere (8 draft picks in the first 4 rounds this year) and I would expect the Pats to learn from this loss and use it as motivation heading into 2011.

-The Kansas City Chiefs finished 10-6 and won the AFC West, but they lost another home playoff game and they haven't even won a playoff game since the 1993 season. The Chiefs were embarrassed at home by Baltimore and when you lose 30-7 at home in your first playoff game, I think that really puts a damper on your season no matter what you did in the regular season. Charlie Weis is leaving, and Matt Cassel might struggle as a result. I'm not sold on Todd Haley as a HC, and their schedule is going to be a lot tougher next year. They have to play New England, Indy, the Jets, Chicago, Green Bay and Pittsburgh next year. Plus, you know San Diego will be back and ready to go after giving the AFC West away this year.

-Anytime you go 13-3, have the best record in your conference and lose your first playoff game, then you are thoroughly disappointed. I'm sure we have not seen the last of Matt Ryan and the Falcons, but that 48-21 blowout loss to Green Bay is a bad loss and it will totally put a bad taste in the mouth of any Falcons fan when they look back on the 2010 season.

-The Ravens are losers because they were making their third straight appearance in the playoffs and won at least one playoff game in the tourney for the third year in a row, yet they still didn't make the Super Bowl. This might have been there best chance to make it. They got KC in the first round, they avoided the Pats in round 2, and they were up 21-7 at Pittsburgh. If they win the game, then they would have hosted the Jets in the AFC Title game. Instead, they blow the lead and lose 31-24 to the Steelers. Plus, their two key offseason receiver pickups, Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh, both have awful drops late in the game that decided it. The Ravens missed out on a golden opportunity this postseason.

-The final team and final loser of the 2010 playoffs: The New York Jets. The Jets were everywhere this season. Think about it: They got 5 primetime games, the signings of guys like Santonio Holmes and Antonio Cromartie, Hard Knocks on HBO, Rex Ryan's guarantees, the Ines Sainz controversy, the foot fetish stories, Braylon Edwards' DUI, More Ryan guarantees, all the close wins late in the game, 45-3, the Sal Alosi tripping incident, the playoff win over the Colts, the trash talk of the Pats, the upset of the Pats and another AFC Title Game appearance. As much as you hate the Jets and this group, they were constantly the story every week in the NFL this year. They were a must watch, and it was fun to root against them week after week. The bottom line is that the Jets backed up most of their talk, but one thing still escaped them: A Super Bowl berth. The Jets fell short of their ultimate goal, and the goal that they stated they would get. It will be hard for the Jets to get back to AFC Title Game next year, let alone the Super Bowl. Also, how can the Jets follow up the hype of 2010 in 2011? One thing is for sure- it will once again be fun to root against the Jets every single week.

Super Bowl Recap!

Super Bowl XLV is in the books and the Green Bay Packers once again will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Packers defeated Pittsburgh 31-25 in Dallas last night. Aaron Rodgers was named the MVP, and it is the Packers fourth Super Bowl in their long and storied history. It was a very good game, and it came down to the last possession-which is all you could ask for in a Super Bowl. For the Packers, it is redemption. It is redemption for moving on from the Brett Favre saga, and rebuilding a team into a championship caliber program, and they did just that. Congratulations to the Packers and their fans, and the Lombardi Trophy is headed back to Green Bay and Lambeau Field. Here are my thoughts on the game........





I) Game started slow with the teams trading punts back and forth. Finally, Rodgers throws a beautiful touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson on a go route to make it 7-0 in the first quarter. I was pumped because I predicted Nelson would be the first Green Bay player to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl-that was my only good gambling moment of the day.


II) Ben Roethlisberger was shaky early, but his interception return by Nick Collins for a touchdown on the ensuing drive was not his fault. He got drilled as he was about to throw it, and the ball fluttered up there. Collins made a nice play and an even better return to give the Packers a big 14-0 lead heading into the second quarter.



III) Pittsburgh seemed to be able to run the ball effectively early with Rashard Mendanhall. I felt like they gave up on the run a little too much early in the game. They did manage to get some points on the board and make it 14-3 in the second though.


IV) Big Ben's second interception was his fault. He threw into double coverage and the Packers were just sitting on the underneath route. Green Bay took advantage and Rodgers' throw to Greg Jennings to make it 21-3 was just sensational. He zipped in between the linebackers and the safeties and it was as big of a throw as any NFL QB could make. Huge turnaround right there.


V) The Steelers and Big Ben never quit and they keep fighting. The Steelers needed a touchdown there in the worst way right before the half down 21-3. Plus, GB was getting the ball to start the second half. Big Ben was great on the drive and so was Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El. Ben's throws to Ward for the touchdown was a great adjustment and a huge play to make it 21-10 at the half.


VI) James Jones' drop on third down on the first possession of the third quarter was a big play at that moment. If he catches it, then is gone for an 80 yard touchdown. That was a key moment right there.


VII) The Steelers got Mendanhall going again on the next drive. He scampered untouched into the endzone to make it 21-17 in the third quarter, and all of the momentum was now in the Steelers' favor.


VIII) I thought the Steeler defense stepped up and took advantage of some timely Packer drops in the third quarter to get the ball back; however, what was Mike Tomlin thinking asking Shaun Suisam to make a 52 yard field goal in the Super Bowl. The kick wasn't even remotely close, and the Steelers missed a huge opportunity.


IX) Big Ben's overthrow to an open Mike Wallace looms large as well. He had him open, but didn't lead him in the right direction. Big time missed chance for the Steelers right there.


X) The fourth quarter comes around and the Steelers are now driving at the Packers 33, and this is the biggest play of the Super Bowl. Mendanhall fumbles after getting hit by Clay Matthews, and the Packers recover. The Steelers were down four points, in GB territory, and threatening to take the game over, but Mendanhall's fumble changed all that. That will be a play that will haunt the Steelers all offseason. If the Steelers score a touchdown on that drive, then they probably win the game in my opinion.


XI) Once again, the Steelers defense was no match for the Packers offense on the next drive. Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson on a big in route on third down, and then he hit Greg Jennings for the touchdown to make it 28-17 and a two possession game again. Huge turn of events there.


XII) The Steelers showed their resolve and toughness once again. Big Ben drives the Steelers right back down the field, but I do question their sense of urgency. He hits Mike Wallace on a beautiful go route for a touchdown on third down. Pittsburgh follows that with a gorgeous two point conversion- A zone read option out of shotgun in which Big Ben pitches to Randle El. Great call and great execution. Now the game is at 28-25, and the pressure goes back on the Packers.


XIII) Up by three points and facing a third and 10, Rodgers made the second biggest play of the game. He hits Jennings on a seam route for a big first down. The Steelers knew that play was coming, but Rodgers still was able to make that throw. Just an amazing performance by Rodgers.

XIV) After a big completion to James Jones, Green Bay missed a chance to really put the game away. You have to give the Packers credit, they had a first and goal and instead of running it twice to make Pittsburgh use timeouts, the Packers went for the kill shot. They threw the ball three times, and he just missed Nelson for a touchdown on third and goal. As a result, the Packers kicked a field goal and took only a 31-25 lead instead of a 35-25 lead, thus leaving the door for the Steelers to come back and win it late.

XV) Big Ben gets the ball with two minutes to go at about his own 20 and down six with one timeout. I really thought Big Ben would at least drive the ball down to the Packers 20 or 25 yard line. He completed his first pass to Heath Miller for a first down. After that, there was a lot of confusion. They were wasting time, there was disorder in formations, and the receivers weren't on the same page with Ben. It brought up a fourth and five and Ben's last pass was incomplete for Mike Wallace, and that was it. Green Bay wins the Super Bowl and gets a stop on Big Ben late in the game. I would've like to seen Pittsburgh drive more and get at least four cracks from the inside the Packers 20.

XVI) Overall, I thought it was a good Super Bowl. It wasn't a great game, but I could make a case for it that it is a top ten Super Bowl. Anytime you get a Super Bowl where it is a six point game with two minutes to go then you have a good game and good Super Bowl. I liked the game, but it most well played game of all time. I would grade this as a B+/A- Super Bowl.

XVII) Ben Roethlisberger falls to 2-1 in Super Bowls, and Mike Tomlin loses his first Super Bowls. I wouldn't feel too sorry for the Steelers and their fans because this team will be back for sure. As long as Ben and Tomlin are around, the Steelers will simply reload and retool for their next run. I would expect the Steelers, Big Ben, and Tomlin to win another Super Bowl in the next 3-4 years.

XVIII) Aaron Rodgers was the best player on the field and he deserved the MVP. His numbers were fantastic (24-39, 304 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Int, 111.5 rating) and he would have had more yards and more completions if it weren't for at least five big drops by Green Bay receivers. Rodgers is the story of this Super Bowl, and he has now put himself into the elite group of NFL QBs, joining Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

XIX) It is amazing to think that the Packers were 8-6 and out of the playoff picture and they wouldn't have made the playoffs if the Giants didn't collapse to Philly in the fourth quarter of Week 15. Think about it: The Giants were up 31-10 with 7 minutes to go in the game, and we all remember how they just fell apart late in the game, and Desean Jackson's punt return as time expired gave the Eagles the miraculous win 38-31. That game dropped the Giants to 9-5, and all the Packers needed to do was beat the Giants and Bears at home to make the playoffs at 10-6. If the Giants hold on to beat Philly, then there is a really good chance the Packers miss out. Even Tampa Bay's loss to Detroit at home in Week 15 helped the Packers make the playoffs. It is just amazing how some things just work out.

XX) The Packers are primed to make a second straight Super Bowl appearance and win back to back Super Bowls. They have Rodgers, a great core of players coming back, and a lot of depth to become possibly the new dynasty in the NFL. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL, but it will be hard to think that the Packers won't be at least be back in the playoffs next year and making a run.

XXI) The 2010 season is now over, and the NFL always delivers a great product and leaves the fans wanting more. There will be a lot to discuss over the next few months, but the possibility of a lockout will really make this the longest offseason ever. I have had so much fun blogging and writing about my beloved Broncos and about the NFL in general. It has been a fun ride and now the long offseason begins. In the next few weeks, I will blog about the CBA and the potential lockout, review the winners and losers of the 2010 NFL season, review my picks and predictions from 2010, and start to look ahead to what the Broncos need to do in the draft and how they can get back in the playoffs and back to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Preview

We have hit the final Sunday of the NFL season-Super Bowl Sunday. I have always enjoyed Super Bowl Sunday and everything that surrounds the Super Bowl. To me the Super Bowl is like a holiday for football fans. It really feels like a celebration of football and the NFL. I've always enjoyed the two week buildup, the weeklong hype, and the constant attention and over-the-top bravado that coincides with the game. I love to watch to NFL Films Super Bowl highlights. I just love everything that goes into this week leading up to the game. It used to be that the Super Bowl game itself was a disappointment and a blowout, but lately, the Super Bowl has really lived up to the hype. The games have been closer and the matchups are more even. This year's Super Bowl is a great matchup. If you could draw up an ideal Super Bowl matchup, then Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh is one of the games you would want to have. Great fanbases, traditional franchises, and both teams are the perfect representation of what the NFL is all about. Here we go with the final picks column of the year.........

Last Week's Record: 0-2
Overall Playoff Record: 3-7
(DESIGNATED HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-2) over Pittsburgh:
Why I Like the Packers: The Packers have such a good offense, and passing offenses are always portable. This is the moment for Aaron Rodgers, and I expect this to be his official coming out party. They will be able to spread the Steelers out, and I think they will move the ball up and down on the Steeler defense. Also, I love the Packers defense. I like how they are playing, and I think that they will be able to at least get to Ben Roethlisberger at some key moments. I've gone against the Packers all postseason, and they have proven me wrong. They do have trouble putting teams away, but I just think they will find a way to get it done.

A Case for the Steelers: The Steelers have a few really important things going for them: Coaching edge, Super Bowl experience, and Big Ben. Those three factors are what would make me pick the Steelers. Big Ben will make some plays that will hurt the Packers, and I trust Mike Tomlin more than Mike McCarthy. You have to look for the Steelers defense to completely shut down the Packers rushing attack. If it comes down to experience, then you have to like the Steelers chances because obviously they have been their before.

I have picked against Green Bay all postseason, and they have beaten me every time. I'm not going to pick agains them again. Plus, I am rooting for the Packers, and I would like to see them win it. For everything they went through with the whole Brett Favre saga, it would be fitting for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in the last five years, but for some reason I see them losing this game. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have lost Super Bowls in the past three seasons, and I think Big Ben gets his first Super Bowl loss in this game. I can just see the America's Game show on NFL Network in September. It will start with the 2007 NFC Championship in Green Bay vs. the Giants. It will show Favre throwing that killer pick and the Packers losing in overtime. The piece will then go to Favre's retirement, and then Favre's decision to come back. It will show how Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy decided to move on from Favre, and how Rodgers now becomes the man to replace the legend. It will then show how Green Bay fell to 6-10 in 2008, and how Favre then made his way to Minnesota. It will show how the Packers were embarrased by the Vikings in two meetings on their way to the division title. Then, the Packers rebound and make the playoffs only to lose a heartbreaker 51-45 in overtime to Arizona in the wildcard round. All those moments lead to this season and this moment for the Green Bay Packers. It is almost like the perfect story for an America's Game show. The 2010 Packers are the perfect story of redemption, and they will return the Vince Lombardi Trophy back home to to the great fans of Green Bay.

FINAL SCORE: Green Bay-27 Pittsburgh-21

Super Bowl Props

Here are some of my prop bets and over/unders for the Super Bowl. Last year, I didn't do so well on some of the props, but it is always fun to try and take a shot and hit them. So here are the Super Bowl XLV:

Points:

Over/Under 24 for Pittsburgh: UNDER 24

Over/Under 24 for Green Bay: UNDER 24

Passing Yards:

Over/Under 300 yards for Ben Roethlisberger: UNDER

Over/Under 300 yards for Aaron Rodgers: OVER

Turnovers:

Over/Under 3 for Pittsburgh: UNDER

Over/Under 3 for Green Bay: UNDER

Receptions:

Over/Under 7 for Mike Wallace: UNDER

Over/Under 7 for Greg Jennings: UNDER

Receiving Yards:

Over/Under 100 for Mike Wallace: UNDER

Over/ Under 100 for Hines Ward: UNDER

Over/Under 100 for Donald Driver: UNDER

Over/Under 100 for Greg Jennings: UNDER

Rushing Yards:

Over/Under 65 yards for James Starks: UNDER

Over/Under 65 yards for Rashard Mendanhall: OVER

Super Bowl MVP (If Pittsburgh Wins):

Ben Roethlisberger

Super Bowl MVP (If Green Bay Wins):

Aaron Rodgers

First Pittsburgh player to score a touchdown: Heath Miller

First Green Bay player to score a touchdown: Jordy Nelson