2010 NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS- A LOOK BACK

As I stated many times, my favorite column of the year is the one that I write in August that previews the upcoming NFL season. For me it is a challenge that is so much fun because of the craziness and parity that comes along with each NFL year. It is fun to try and be a little bold and make some predictions, and then root for some of those to actually pan out as the season progresses. There are little tricks and formulas that I have tried to follow in my goal of somehow correctly predicting all 12 playoff teams. I know that is a goal that is highly unattainable, but it is fun to try and predict the season, figure out who exceeds expectations and who falls short, and then look back on what happened after the season ends. Before I get to my review of my own predictions, I want to see if the standard NFL formulas still held up this season. For example, every year at least one team that lost at least 10 games the year before makes the playoffs the following year.

2009:

Kansas City 4-12

Seattle 5-11

2010:

Kansas City 10-6 AFC West Champs

Seattle 7-9 NFC West Champs (Seattle's 2010 season is going to throw a lot of things off, but they still did make the playoffs)

Another quirky NFL formula that I wrote about midseason is this: Every year at least one team that is 6-2 at the halfway point, fails to make the playoffs. Also, at least one team that is 3-5 at the midway mark will make the playoffs. This data goes back to 2002. Here is what transpired this year:

New York Giants: 6-2 at midseason/finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks: 3-5 at midseason/finished 7-9 and made the playoffs.

Another formula that seems to come to fruition is the amount of teams that make it back to the playoffs for a second straight year. Usually, you can count on six out of the 12 teams from the prior year miss the playoffs the following year. Here is how it brokedown last year:

2009 Playoff Teams:

New England, Jets, Cincy, Baltimore, Indy, San Diego, Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona

2010 Playoff Teams:

New England, Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy, Kansas City, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle.

In 2010, 7 teams made the playoffs back to back (NE, Jets, Baltimore, Indy, Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans) and five missed out (Cincy, San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona). However, when you look back at least five teams have missed the playoffs back to back years in every season going back to realignment in 2002.

Division winners usually averages to four out of eight division winners repeat the following year. Here are the 2009 Divisional Winners:

New England, Cincy, Indy, San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona

Here are the 2010 Divisional Winners:

New England, Pittsburgh, Indy, Kansas City, Philly, Chicago, Atlanta, Seattle

In 2010, there were six out of eight new divisional winners, so the theory stills holds true that there will be at least four new divisional winners each year.

*Next time, I will breakdown my NFC Predictions and see what I hit and what I missed