An Early Look at 2011

I am so desperate to write about something for the upcoming NFL season, but I have been hesitant because I was worried about what this labor strife is going to do to the actual season. The cautious optimism feeling is a little contagious, and I know I am going to have to fit in some major writing if this dispute gets settled later on this summer, but I have the time right now to give a little look at to what is in store for 2011. Obviously, the faces and makeup of each team will be totally different from what they look like now because over 400 free agents will be available, college free agents have to be signed, and trades involving some big name QBs (McNabb, Kolb, Palmer etc..)will be evolving. Here is an idea of some teams I like going into next year and some that I don't like:

Teams I Like or Bounce Back:
1) Dallas: The Cowboys are due for a big bounce back year. Tony Romo will be back healthy, and Jason Garrett looks like he can pump the tires on this team. Their first four games aren't brutal (@Jets, @SF, vs. Wash, and vs. Det). Look for the Cowboys to be very competitive all year.

2) New York Giants: Everyone is going to talk about their recent struggles down the stretch, but look for a big year from the G-Men. If you're looking for a team to win the division, put some cash on the Giants. I think they silence many critics this year.

3) Detroit: Many people will pick the Lions as a sleeper playoff team, but I don't know if I'm there yet with them. Right now they look to me like one of those dangerous 8-8 or even 9-7 teams that no one wants to play down the stretch. I'm not sure if I will pick them to make the playoffs, but they will definitely be in the mix.

4) Oakland: Again, this is a team that people will look to as a potential wild card team, but I don't know if they are going to the playoffs just yet. I think the Raiders have a lot going for them in 2011. I like their makeup offensively and defensively, but the two concerns for me are new head coach Hue Jackson and QB Jason Campbell. Those two factors could derail my pick for them in the playoffs.

5) San Diego: You could pick the Chargers every year, but my sense is that a lot of people will be down on the Chargers. I won't be one of them. Look for SD to bounce back from a disappoiting 9-7 non-playoff year and take back the AFC West in 2011.

6) Cleveland/Houston/Jacksonville: Someone from this trio will surprise people this year. If I were a Browns fan, I would hang my hat on Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis and nice start to the season (Cincy,@Indy,Miami, and Tennessee). If you are a fans of the Jags, you have to think that one of these years you can finish strong and make the playoffs. Don't forget Jacksonville was 8-4 and 7-5 the last two seasons, and lost the remainder of their games each year to miss the playoffs. Plus, I love the Blaine Gabbert pick because you can't rely on David Garrard forever. If you are a Houston fan, then you love the fact that Wade Phillips is your defensive coordinator. This team is very close to making a run at a playoff berth, and they have been the sexy pick the last two seasons. This could be their year they finally break through.

Teams I Don't Like or Fall Off:
1) New York Jets: I just don't think the Jets can duplicate what they did the last two years. Also, the new cap rules should really affect the Jets roster tremendously. The Jets have caught every break along the way the last two years, and I just think the odds will catch up to them this year.

2) Kansas City: The Chiefs followed the classic formula last year: Decent young team+Easy schedule+ Good start and ended up 10-6 and champs of the AFC West. Then, they got exposed badly Baltimore in the first round and that was it. I don't love Todd Haley as a head man, and the Charlie Weis departure is going to hurt them.

3) Chicago: The Bears really weren't as good as their 11-5 record and their NFC Title Game appearance indicated. No matter what the Bears do in free agency, I just don't see them being as good this year. They smell like a classic 8-8/7-9 team in 2011.

4) Tampa Bay: I'm sure a lot of experts are going to pick the Bucs to make the playoffs, but I'm not going to be one of them. I still don't trust them, and I want to see them when they have the bullseye on their chest this time around.

5) Philadelphia: If it wasn't for Mike Vick, Philly would have been 7-9 last year. The Eagles will be good, but I don't see them winning the NFC East next year. Right now, the Eagles look like a 9 win team that falls short of the playoffs.

6) St. Louis Rams: People loved the move that the Rams made when they hired Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator. In time it will be a good move, but be careful about McDaniels' influence on Sam Bradford this year. There could be some growing pains this year. My other concern with the Rams is what the other teams in the division will do when free agency starts. If the Rams fall behind on some key moves, they might not be a threat to win the division this year.