Ladies and Gentlemen.....Your 2011 Denver Broncos

The 2011 season can't come early enough for Broncos fans. The 2010 season was a nightmare, and easily the worst season for the Broncos since 1990. The Broncos season unofficially ended last year on Halloween, after the disgraceful loss in London to the 49ers. It has been a long time since that came, and the Broncos have gone through a new Vice President of Football Operations, a new Head Coach, a General Manager with real authority, and a brand new outlook. Where is this version of the Broncos headed this season? Let's break it down and take a closer look at this year's team.

OFFENSE:

The Tim Tebow Era in Denver is put on hold for now, and Kyle Orton goes from on the trading block to the starting block. Orton is entrenched as the starter after a training camp "competition." This is a make or break year for Orton. He is a free agent next year, and if he plays well and wins games, then he will get paid quite well next year, and it will probably be in Denver. To help out Orton, the Broncos are counting on the running back tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. I have always liked Moreno, but he really hasn't fulfilled his potential, especially for a 12th overall pick. Moreno has looked better in this preseason, and you would expect him to take a major step forward this year. McGahee revived his career in Baltimore as red zone and goal line runner. This one-two punch could be very effective. The receiving corps is pretty solid with Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Eric Decker. Demaryius Thomas is out until at least the end of October because of his lingering Achilles injury. You can't expect Lloyd to put up the numbers that he did last year, but that could open it up for bigger years from Royal and Decker. The tight end position could be a wild card with the addition of rookie Julius Thomas. Thomas has looked really good in preseason, and he could add another dimension to this offense. The offensive line is young and underrated. Ryan Clady should be back to his normal self this year, and Chris Kuper is very undervalued. J.D. Walton and Zane Beadles return as starters in their second year, and hopefully each will continue to improve. My one concern on the line is RT Orlando Franklin. I get nervous with rookie offensive lineman, and hopefully he steps right in and does a quality job.

DEFENSE

The 2011 Broncos defense can only go up from last year's awful performance. Here is the key for the Broncos defense: Pressure from the edges. You have to think Denver's defense will automatically get better with the return of Elvis Dumervil and the addition of Von Miller. This could be one of the best pass rushing combinations in the NFL. The Broncos weakness could be inside on their defensive line. Will Robert Ayers make the leap this year? What can we expect from the rotation of Kevin Vickerson, Marcus Thomas, Broderick Bunkley, Jeremy Jarmon, and Ryan McBean? I am going to hold out hope, but Denver still might add more talent after cut down day. Joe Mays is slated to start at Middle Linebacker, and D.J. Williams will miss the first two games due to injury. It will be interesting to see how quick third round pick Nate Irving gets himself in the mix. Champ Bailey can still play at a high level, and he doesn't get the publicity he used to get, but he is still an All-Pro. Andre Goodman played well for the Broncos in 2009, but he was banged up for most of 2010. Cassius Vaughn, Sydquan Thompson, and Perrish Cox could provide some quality depth at CB. Brian Dawkins is back at FS, and rookie Rahim Moore will start at SS. You would expect Dawkins to play somewhat better than he did last year, and it will be fun to see what Moore can do. Overall, this defense has to improve, and there will be some rough spots along the way, but that pass rush will be fun to watch all year long.

Coaching

Josh McDaniels' tenure in Denver always seemed to be followed by a dark cloud. John Fox brings some new spirit, positive energy and enthusiasm back to Denver. One thing about Fox is that he can coach. Sure, there are people in Carolina who think he was overrated, but the overall consensus around the league is that Fox is one helluva coach. Plus, the players love playing for him, which is a change from last year where it was obvious that the Broncos quit on McDaniels. Fox should breathe some new life into this team, and I have no doubt that the Broncos will play hard every week. He will definitely turn this defense around, and he will try to shorten the game and win close games by the scores of 17-10 or 19-13. That's a little different than what Bronco fans are used to, but we will take it.

Final Prediction: Heading into the preseason, I had Denver at 6-10. After watching them in the preseason, I think they are suited to finish with 7 or 8 wins this year. They will be in a lot of games, and they will spoil someone's season late in December, but they are a year away from playoff contention. Still, an 8-8 season with this team is a positive step in the new era of Broncos football.

Revised 2011 Predictions and Cheat Sheet

I love to write a predictions column about the NFL season as early as possible. One of the main reasons why I usually write that column in early August is because I am so excited to start writing and talking about the NFL season. My predictions in early August were the following:

AFC

1-San Diego: 12-4 (West)

2-New England: 11-5 (East)

3-Pittsburgh: 10-6 (North)

4-Houston: 10-6 (South)

5-Indy: 10-6 (Wild Card)

6-Oakland: 9-7 (Wild Card)

AFC Playoffs:

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Indy over Houston

Divisional Round

San Diego over Indy

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship

San Diego over New England

Now, I know it is a little bit of hindsight here, but after watching the first three games of the preseason, it is time to make a slight change in my predictions. I have not been impressed at all after watching Oakland in the preseason. I can't buy into Jason Campbell, and I simply can't buy into the Raider hype. So here is what I am going to do: I am going to take the Raiders out of the playoffs, and I'm going to add the Cleveland Browns. I'm swapping the Browns and Raiders records in 2011. I had Cleveland at 7-9, and the Raiders at 9-7, but now I will switch it and give the Raiders the 7-9 record, and give the Browns the 9-7 mark and the wildcard spot. I know I just picked the Browns to make the playoffs, but here are my reasons:

1-Colt McCoy has looked good enough to make me jump on the bandwagon. I'm buying stock on McCoy, and I think he will play well enough to make his team competitive in every game.

2-The Browns are due to make the playoffs after missing out for the last eight seasons. They should have made it in 2007, but the Titans got a gift from the Colts in Week 17 and the Browns missed out. Throw in the fact that no one is really picking them, and they have all the makings of a surprise team that comes out of nowhere.

3-The Browns schedule is favorable for a run to the postseason. Their first three out of four are at home (Cincy, Miami, and Tennessee.) They play the NFC West and the AFC South (Indy in Week 2 and maybe Peyton Manning is still out with a neck injury), and they can build a nice little cushion heading into December when they face Baltimore and Pittsburgh four times in the last five weeks.

So here are my revised 2011 AFC Standings

AFC

1-San Diego: 12-4 (West)

2-New England: 11-5 (East)

3-Pittsburgh: 10-6 (North)

4-Houston: 10-6 (South)

5-Indy: 10-6 (Wild Card)

6-Cleveland: 9-7 (Wild Card)

AFC Playoffs:

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh over Cleveland

Indy over Houston

Divisional Round

San Diego over Indy

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship

San Diego over New England

Broncos Look Good in Victory over Seahawks

The Broncos defeated the Seattle Seahawks 23-20 in their third preseason game last Saturday Night. Denver improved their preseason record to 2-1. The Broncos finish off their preseason at Arizona this week. Here are my quick thoughts and observations of the win:

1) Once again Kyle Orton looked really good. Orton finished 16-23 for 236 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This is the year for Orton. If he steps up, plays well, and wins games, then he will get a chance to cash in on a nice payday in Denver. He is certainly playing like he is ready to step in and be the "guy" this year. I know it is only preseason, but Orton is really making me believe that he could be the driving force for this offense this year.

2) Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil have the makings of a nasty pass rushing combination. Miller finished the night with 2.5 sacks, and Dumervil had 1.5 sacks. Both players really caused problems for the Seahawks offensive line. It looks like Miller is the real deal, and this will be fun to watch on third down and in passing situations. The only thing missing is a really cool nickname for these two. I have seen "Von Doom" floating around the message boards, but someone needs to come up with a really good one.

3) D.J. Williams will be out 3-4 weeks with a dislocated elbow. Williams will miss the season opener vs. Oakland, and most likely Week 2 vs. Cincy. Hopefully, he will be back for Week 3 at Tennessee. I like D.J. Williams a lot, and I was looking forward to seeing him back in a 4-3 scheme this year. Hopefully, he will be back soon and ready to go when he returns. Until then, Wesley Woodyard and others will have to step up. Simply put: Next man up.

4) Two fantasy football sleeper for Denver would be Eric Decker and Julius Thomas. Both of them had really nice games on Saturday Night. If we can get these two going, then our offense will be very tough for opponents to plan against.

5) I am still worried about our interior run defense. Ty Warren is gone until at least December if not the entire season. Marcus Thomas is banged up and might miss Week 1. Broderick Bunkley got hurt Saturday, and there is a chance he might miss Week 1 too. Ryan McBean, Jeremy Jarmon, Joe Mays, and Kevin Vickerson doesn't exactly scare opponents up the middle. Expect the Broncos to be active on the defensive line after other teams make cuts and roster moves.

6) Tim Tebow played parts of the third and fourth quarter. He played okay and finished 6-11 for 93 yards. He did lead the Broncos to a game-winning field goal as time expired. His performance was up and down, but in my opinion there is still solid upside and potential with him as a QB. This might not be the year for Tebow, and he might not be ready, but there is no reason why Denver should give up on him. Although it looks like Brady Quinn has the backup job, I would love to see Tebow get some work in some spread packages each week. He is a work in progress. Just be patient and let the kid develop.

7) Denver heads to Arizona to finish off the preseason. I wouldn't expect too much playing time from the starters. The next big question is who will make this roster because the Broncos have to cut down to the 53 man roster by Friday.

Broncos Bury Bills in Preseason Game 2

The Broncos defeated the Bills 24-10 on Saturday Night at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Week 2 of the preseason (I'm just going with Mile High for this season.) Denver evened their preseason record to 1-1. Here are my quick observations and thoughts on the game:

-Kyle Orton and the first team offense looked really good. Orton was 1o-13 for 135 yards and 1 touchdown. He looked sharp and in command of the offense. Orton gives the Broncos the best chance to win right now, and it is no surprise that John Fox officially named Orton the starter for the season opener at home versus the Raiders. Orton is having a great training camp and preseason, and he backed it up against the Bills on Saturday. We have seen this from Kyle before (See 2010 Preseason), so let's hold off on the Kyle Orton=Pro Bowl QB proclamations for now.

-The defense played pretty well. They did give up a first drive field goal, but after that they really played solid. Elvis Dumervil was a factor, and Von Miller got a sack early in the game. The Miller/Elvis tandem could really be deadly this season, and it is going to be fun to watch them tee off on third down this season.

-I know Rahim Moore got flagged for a brutal hit on Saturday Night, but this kid seems like the real deal. When you get the top rated safety in the draft in Round 2, then your team is getting some good value. I like Moore a lot, and he might make a real impact for us this year.

-Broderick Bunkley stood out to me in this game. He played better this week, and he was a factor inside. Our interior defensive line is still shaky, but hopefully he can help fortify that group.

-Brady Quinn once again looked impressive, but I still can't get too excited when he is playing against backups. Remember, it still is only PRESEASON! It is clear that Quinn has outplayed Tim Tebow, and I think it is basically a formality that Quinn will be the backup to Orton to start the year.

-Speaking of Tebow, it has been quite a strange month for the guy. He goes from looking like the savior in Denver as the starter, to being criticized on ESPN and NFL Network, to being the backup, and now he stands as the number three guy on the depth chart. Tebow played the last two series of the game, and he only attempted two passes. I really feel bad for him, and I just hope that somehow he gets his chance in Denver. I'm not so sure if that is going to happen, but let's hope he sits and develops this year, and at some point makes the most of his opportunities in a Broncos uniform.

Broncos Drop Preseason Opener

The Broncos lost 24-23 to the Dallas Cowboys last night in their 2011 preseason opener. The loss drops Denver's record to 0-1, and the Broncos return home to face the Buffalo Bills next Saturday at Invesco Field. Here are my thoughts on last night't game:

1) The Broncos were able to drive down the field on the first drive of the game, and they put a field goal on the board. Kyle Orton was 2-6 for 37 yards. Once again, he failed to put the ball in the end zone, and the Broncos managed only a field after have a first and goal from the one.

2) The combo of Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno gashed the Cowboys defense and the running game looked really good. Moreno had four carries for 23 yards, and McGahee had two carries for 17 yards.

3) The first team defense gave up a field goal on their first drive against the Dallas starters. They gave up two big plays to Felix Jones, one on a screen, but the defense clamped down and forced the Cowboys to kick a field goal. Not an awful start for the first teamers.

4) Now, the Tim Tebow watch has already begun. Tebow entered the game after the first series along with the other backups on offense. His first series was rough: A interception that was nullified by pass interference, and a bobbled snap which led to a sack. The second series was a dramatically different. Tebow lofted a beautiful pass down the middle of the field to Matt Willis for a 43 yard gain. He was able to get a field goal out of that drive. The next two were okay, and Tebow actually had a one yard touchdown run called back. That drive led to another field goal. Tebow's final numbers were 6-7 for 91 yards. Overall, it was a good performance by Tebow. Nothing he will do this preseason will give him a chance to start, but it once again proved what type of plays he can effectively run. He is solid in the play-action game, and he throws well out of the shotgun. He has trouble progressing through his reads, and he is never going to look perfect in technique. The bottom line is that everyone has to stop judging every move he makes, and they need to just let him develop. Yes, it looks like he is not ready to start yet, but let it be, and just let the kid develop.

5) Brady Quinn looked good last night and put up solid numbers (8-14 120 yards and 1 TD), but remember he was going against third team players and guys who won't be in the league in a month.

6) The interesting position battle to watch lies in the secondary and at tight end. Kyle McCarthy played well at Safety last night, and it might be enough for him to nudge either Darcel McBath or David Bruton out the door. The tight end situation is interesting because Daniel Fells looks like the starter, and Dante Rosario is going to get a good look. Julius Thomas has looked great in camp, but last night proved he really needs to improve his blocking. Richard Quinn and Dan Gronkowski look like the guys on the outside looking in.

2011 AFC Predictions!!!!

With the NFC predictions done, here is the 2011 AFC predictions...........

AFC EAST

1) New England Patriots (11-5)

What I Like: What is not to like about the Pats? As long as Tom Brady is at quarterback, and Bill Belichick is coaching the team, then the Patriots will always be pegged as winners of the AFC East. They signed Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, which are setting up as typical Belichick-type revival projects. They also stole Shaun Ellis away from the Jets. No matter who they bring in, each guy on that roster buys into the Patriot Way, and the team chugs along like a damn machine. The Pats haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship. That has fueled them all offseason, and they will take it out on the rest of league come September.

What I Don't Like: The Patriots are always lauded for compiling all these draft picks in each round, but this year they could have really used these picks to move up and grab themselves a really dynamic pass rusher or wide receiver. They didn't do that, and I don't think that they really separated themselves that much from the Jets or other teams in the AFC.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC East

2) New York Jets (8-8)

What I Like: Rex Ryan talks too much, but you have to give him credit because he backs it up. He has totally changed the culture in that building, players love to play for him, but he really makes his money by his defensive strategies. He really does a great job game-planning his defense in big games. He has become a big-time coach in the NFL. Also, the Jets had to resign Santonio Holmes, and they took care of that.

What I Don't Like: How did the Jets get better this offseason? Did they gain a lot of ground on the Patriots? The answer to those questions is no. They lost Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and added Plaxico Burress (The last two years he spent in jail) and Derrick Mason (He's like 48 years old.) Brad Smith bolted to go to Buffalo, and the Jets lost Shaun Ellis to the rival Patriots. Once the Jets put all their eggs in the Nnamdi Asomugha basket, and it didn't work out, then the Jets offseason took a major hit. They still don't have a pass rush, and are relying on many guys that are unproven on a team that is supposed to be Super Bowl bound. I don't see it. Also, the Jets caught so many breaks the last two years, and this year I think the luck runs out.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC East

3) Miami Dolphins (7-9)

What I Like: The Reggie Bush move could give them some explosiveness to their inept offense. Despite what people think, Tony Sparano is a good coach. They were 7-6 last year until they fell apart and finished 7-9. The Fish might not be as far off as you would think.

What I Don't Like: How do you go with Chad Henne and Matt Moore at quarterback and miss out on pulling the trigger on Kyle Orton? How did you improve your chances of winning in 2011. The Dolphins really dropped the ball by not addressing their QB situation, and that is going to kill them this year. Henne doesn't look like he has the goods, and it will probably cost him and maybe his coach their jobs.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC East

4) Buffalo Bills (6-10)

What I Like: Adding Marcel Dareus in the draft at number two overall was a great move for them. They stole Brad Smith away from the Jets, and Stevie Johnson is the best receiver that no one has heard of. They were in pretty much every game last year, and they were a lot better then their 4-12 record would indicate. Chan Gailey did a really nice job with their offense last year.

What I Don't Like: They are stuck in a division with two powerhouses like the Jets and the Pats. The Bills could have been a sleeper pick if they upgraded their QB position, but the fact that they are going with Ryan Fitzpatrick just scares me. I know he played well last year, but he isn't the long-term answer for that franchise.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC East

AFC NORTH

1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

What I Like: The Steelers are the Steelers, and they will just reload for another run this year. Mike Tomlin is a fantastic head coach, and Ben Roethlisberger is simply amazing. As long as Big Ben is not getting in trouble, the Steelers will be very difficult to beat. They resigned their main guys (Ike Taylor and Lamar Woodley) and they will use the fact that they lost the Super Bowl as their main motivation to get them back.

What I Don't Like: The last time Pittsburgh went to the Super Bowl in 2008, they followed it up by missing the playoffs in 2009. In 2006, they missed the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl in 2005. I'm going to be a little nervous about the Steelers after they get to the Super Bowl. They could be in for another Super Bowl hangover.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC North

2) Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

What I Like: You have to like the program that the Ravens have developed. Solid coaching, solid veteran leadership, and they build through the draft and develop their own players. As long as Ray Lewis is around, you know their defense is going to be a force. Ray Rice is one of the best backs in the league, and they are just an overall solid organization that is a contender every year.

What I Don't Like: Joe Flacco has to win a Super Bowl for me to totally buy into him as a legitimate franchise QB. Plus, the Ravens have made the playoffs the last three years, but in the NFL sometimes the law of averages just catches up to a team. Injuries, bad breaks, a couple of close losses and a team has a down year. The Ravens look like they are headed for one of those down years.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC North

3) Cleveland Browns (7-9)

What I Like: I like the fact that they told everyone that Colt McCoy is their guy at QB. They removed all doubt. McCoy with Peyton Hillis could have a little bit of a cool factor on team that hasn't been very sexy in a long, long time. Mike Holmgren looks like he actually has a plan, and new coach Pat Shurmur will get a chance to build up this team. They were actually in play as one of the sleeper teams of 2011.

What I Don't Like: They did a lot of trading down in the draft, and I don't think they added a real big-time playmaker on offense. I'm always nervous about first year head coaches, and I wonder if McCoy can make it through an entire season healthy. They are so far away from the Ravens and Steelers, and it will take them a lot of catch up.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC North

4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)

What I Like: At least they nabbed the best playmaker in the entire draft in A.J. Green. Getting rid of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens was the right move for the organization. They fell in love with Andy Dalton, and they are going to go with him, so at least they have a plan and vision for the future.

What I Don't Like: You know it's bad when your franchise QB says that he would rather retire then play another down for the team. Whether Carson Palmer ever comes back or not, the Bengals are going to struggle with Andy Dalton at the helm this year. They are the bottom feeders in a very tough division, and I would be shocked if they didn't lost double digit games this season.

Prediction: 4-12 and last in the AFC North

AFC SOUTH

1) Houston Texans (10-6)

What I Like: The Texans have been knocking on the door the past few years, and they finally breakthrough this year. Wade Phillips should be able to turn that defense around, and adding Johnathan Joseph and Daniel Manning to the secondary will help. The Texans offense has been stellar the last few years, and the improvement of the defense should put the Texans in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

What I Don't Like: Haven't we been here before? It seems like every offseason the Texans are ready to make the jump to the playoffs, and they disappoint everytime. Plus, can they really get by the Colts? They haven't been able to do it yet, and everyone will still doubt them until they do it.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC South

2) Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

What I Like: They resigned Joseph Addai, and as long as Peyton Manning is the quarterback, then you can pencil them in for the playoffs and a division title. They get guys like Dallas Clark back healthy, and that should really help them on offense. They rebuilt their offensive line through the draft, and they still have the best pass rushing combination in the league. Did I mention that Peyton Manning is their QB?

What I Don't Like: Two things worry me about the Colts: First, Manning's neck injury. There is a good chance he is going to miss the whole preseason, and right now the word is that the Colts have no idea if he will be ready for the start of the season. If he is out any significant time, the Colts are screwed. Manning's neck injury is going to be the biggest storyline of this Colts season early on. Secondly, Jim Caldwell stinks as an NFL head coach. I'm sorry watch the Super Bowl loss to the Saints and last year's playoff loss to the Jets. Caldwell is lost and that worries me.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth in the AFC South

3) Tennessee Titans (7-9)

What I Like: The Matt Hasselbeck move was a nice pickup for them. He will give them a chance to win this year as they groom Jake Locker for the future. Chris Johnson is also the most explosive player in the league. Mike Munchak is a new head coach, but he has been with that team for a long time and he knows that team and the locker room. That could translate to some surprising success early on in the season. Remember, they were 5-2 last year before collapsing and finishing 6-10. They are not that far off.

What I Don't Like: I worry that Hasselbeck won't stay healthy, and then Locker is thrown into the fire too early. Plus, Chris Johnson's holdout has the potential to derail any kind of momentum and chemistry. Being in the same division as the Colts every year doesn't help either. They look like they are a year away.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC South

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

What I Like: They are always competitive, and they are always in the playoff hunt come December. Maurice Jones-Drew is a gamebreaker, and maybe they hit it with Blaine Gabbert. If Jack Del Rio was in another market, he would get more publicity for being a good coach. He seems to get a lot out of his team year in and year out.

What I Don't Like: I don't like how the David Garrard-Blaine Gabbert situation is going to play out. I feel like the Jags might stay with Garrard too long, and then the next thing you know they turn it over to Gabbert when the team is like 3-9 or something like that. It can't be a good thing either when the owner basically says that Del Rio's gone if they don't make the playoffs. I don't have a good feeling about the 2011 Jags.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the AFC South

AFC WEST

1) San Diego Chargers (12-4)

What I Like: As much as I want to hate Philip Rivers, I just respect him too much. As long as Rivers is the quarterback for San Diego, they will own this division. The Chargers were due for a down year last year, and 9-7 and missing the playoffs is a down year. They finished that way because their special teams was probably the worst special teams unit in the history of the NFL, and it cost them games. That won't happen again this year, and look for the Chargers to be hungry and bounce back this season.

What I Don't Like: How could anyone trust Norv Turner as a head coach? The Chargers always start off slow, and they open with some tough games early on (at NE, KC, at Jets, at KC, GB, Oak, at Chi just to name a few). They proved that you can't always recover from 2-4 starts and make the playoffs. As long as Norv is their head coach, you can't totally put your faith in them.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the AFC West

2) Oakland Raiders (9-7)

What I Like: The Raiders have built themselves a nice little core with McFadden, Ford, Murphy, Houston, Seymour, Wimbley, McClain, and Routt. They went 6-0 in the division last year, and they can line up with anyone on their schedule. Hue Jackson brings some real enthusiasm to the team, and he was with them last year, so he knows that team and that locker room as well. The Raiders haven't made the playoffs since 2002, and as much as it pains me to say it, but they are due to return this year. You have to think outside the box sometimes.

What I Don't Like: Jason Campbell might be the only thing that holds them back this year. He is just an average starter in the NFL, and it makes me nervous to pick a playoff team with Campbell as the QB. If the Raiders don't make the playoffs, then Campbell is probably the reason. Also, losing Zach Miller and Robert Gallery to free agency hurts. Plus, what team fires their head coach after their best season in eight years? Only the Raiders.

Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth

3) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)

What I Like: They have a nice nucleus with Cassel, Charles, Moeaki, and Bowe on offense. They have Berry, Dorsey, Johnson, Hali and Flowers as their core on defense. They have drafted well and built a nice little squad that totally surprised everyone and won the division last year. They finally brought back the homefield advantage to Arrowhead Stadium. They are setup to be a good team for the future.

What I Don't Like: I'm not a Todd Haley fan at all despite what he did last year. They rode an easy schedule, some surprising wins, and a disappointing season by the Chargers to win the West last year. Don't expect the same this year. Higher expectations will cut them down. Their schedule is really tough (at Indy, at NE, Pittsburgh, at Chi, at Jets, GB) in addition to their divisional games, which are never easy. They just have the look of the classic letdown team of 2011.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC West.

4) Denver Broncos (6-10)

*I will have a longer and more in depth preview of the Broncos season after all the preseason games are completed*

What I Like: I like John Fox and the direction he is setting with this team. I feel good that the team is in Fox's hands, and I have no doubt that he will turn the franchise around. I like the improvements the Broncos made on defense. Pairing up Von Miller with the returning Elvis Dumervil could be a lethal pass rushing combination. I like the influx of youth on their defense as well. They are looking for guys like Rahim Moore and Nate Irving to step up and play big roles in their new 4-3 scheme. I like the one-two punch of Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee in the backfield, and it will be nice to see the Broncos committed to the running game again after being a pass-happy team the last two years.

What I Don't Like: Quite simply the Kyle Orton Era continues. How does Orton go from being traded to Miami to the outright starter in a week? The Broncos failure to move on from the Orton Era is going to kill them this season. I know he looks great in practice, and I know he is more polished than Tim Tebow right now, but we have seen this before, and where did it get the Broncos? It got them nowhere, and I feel this was the perfect year to start Tebow. The Broncos are winning the Super Bowl this year, so why not start Tebow and see what you have for the future at the most important position. Unforunately, we are stuck with Orton and his lack of ability in the red zone, on third downs, and against the blitz. I'm sorry but the Broncos fucked up this QB situation badly.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC West.

2011 AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

1) San Diego 12-4 (West)

2) New England 11-5 (East)

3) Pittsburgh 10-6 (North)

4) Houston 10-6 (South)

5) Indy 10-6 (Wild Card)

6) Oakland 9-7 (Wild Card)

Wild Card Weekend

5-Indy over 4-Houston (The Texans win the division, but Manning and the Colts get the best of them in first ever playoff game Texans' history.)

3-Pitt over 6-Oakland (A rematch of those classic 70s Steeler-Raider games. The Steelers knock off the Raiders without the help of the Immaculate Reception.)

Divisional Round

1-San Diego over 5-Indy (SD beat the Colts in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs, and now they beat them again in 2011.)

2-New England over 3-Pittsburgh (The Pats snap their three game playoff losing streak and head to AFC Title Game for first time since 2007.)

AFC Championship

1-San Diego over 2-New England (Rivers gets to his first Super Bowl, and Chargers reach first Super Bowl since 1994.)

SUPER BOWL XLVI

San Diego over New Orleans

2011 NFC Predictions!!!!

Here we go with the NFC Predictions........

NFC EAST

1) Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

What I Like: The Eagles were the undisputed champions of this condensed offseason. They added Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, Ronnie Brown, Jason Babin, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb heist. Also, they stole Steve Smith away from the Giants. They were already very good before they made all those moves, so the Eagles have stacked the deck for this season. Mike Vick will be the key factor for them, and he is going to be an MVP candidate. Throw in the receiving corps and Lesean McCoy, and you have to like where they are as a team. The have locked and loaded for a big 2011 season.

What I Don't Like: Football is not like the other sports. Yes, you have to have talent to win, but in football you can't expect to just put all these names together and expect to easily go 14-2 or 15-1. Football is more complicated then that. Also, the Eagles have put the bullseye on their back, and the expectations might be too much for them at times.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the NFC East.

2) Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

What I Like: Tony Romo is coming back from injury, so that will help them right off the bat. Some people like to kill Romo, but put the tape on from last year's win over Houston, and you see how important he is and just how good he is. Also, you have to like what you see out of Jason Garrett as a head coach, and he seems to have them on the right path, unlike last year's debacle under Wade Phillips. They can really make up ground this year from weeks 7-13 with games against the Rams, Bills, at Wash, Miami, and at Arizona.

What I Don't Like: They are so far behind the Eagles, that it is not even close. There is no shot they can win the division, unless the Eagles completely implode. Their secondary is still shaky, and their offensive line could still have some trouble. Let's face it: The Cowboys haven't gotten a lot of press this offseason, but they are still a national draw, and they are not sneaking up on anyone.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3) New York Giants (8-8)

What I Like: They still have a good head coach in Tom Coughlin, and their core of Eli, Jacobs, Bradshaw, Manningham, Nicks, Tuck, Webster, Thomas, and Rolle is still pretty much in place. The Giants also are always competitive and didn't have too many holes to fill in the offseason. There are not that many things that a 10-6 needs to do to take the next step, and the Giants are in that boat.

What I Don't Like: I don't like anything that happened this offseason for them. First, the Osi Umenyiora situation is a major distraction and problem. They cut Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert, they lost Barry Cofield and Kevin Boss in free agency, and they lost Prince Amukamara for two months. To add insult to injury Steve Smith goes and signs with the Eagles. Their schedule down the stretch is absolutely brutal. Their last seven games look like this: Philly, at New Orleans, Green Bay, at Dallas, Washington, at Jets, and Dallas. Tom Coughlin could lose his job if the G-Men miss the playoffs, and it looks like the Giants might be headed that way.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC East.

4) Washington Redskins (7-9)

What I Like: Mike Shanahan is still a very good NFL coach despite what happened last year. They were able to add some receivers in free agency this offseason, and their defense has another year to develop in the 3-4 scheme. Rex Grossman and John Beck are not big time QBs, but perhaps Shanny can get enough out of them to be a competitive team and in the hunt down the stretch.

What I Don't Like: I was shocked that Shanahan didn't go after a better quarterback in the offseason. He is going with Grossman and/or Beck, and you can't really expect miracles from those two this season. Their defense is still suspect, and they are clearly behind Philly, the Giants, and the Cowboys in their division.

Prediction: 7-9 and last in the NFC East

NFC NORTH

1) Green Bay Packers (11-5)

What I Like: Aaron Rodgers has made the leap and now he has a Super Bowl ring to boot. Rodgers is now an elite QB in the NFL, and as long as he stays healthy, he will make the Packers a threat to repeat. Plus, Green Bay has done a great job of drafting and developing their own talent. They are still loaded on offense, and I wouldn't expect a Super Bowl hangover from this group.

What I Don't Like: Being the defending Super Bowl champs, the Packers will have the target on their back all season long. It is not easy getting up every single week for every other team's best shot, so it is definitely not going to be easy for them.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC North

2) Detroit Lions (9-7)

What I Like: The Lions have slowly built themselves a talented football team. They have the QB in Matt Stafford, and they have talent all over that offense. We know the impact of Ndamukong Suh on that defense, but you could just tell last year that the Lions were starting to make the jump. They finished 2010 with four straight wins, and I learned from last year that if I like a team, don't wait a year for them- just go with it. The Lions are the surprise team of 2011, and they will make their first playoff appearance since 1999.

What I Don't Like: Stafford hasn't stayed healthy his first two years, and I'm a little shaky about Jim Schwartz and his gameday management. They do have to play the NFC South which is a tricky division for them, and their own division is very competitive. They also might buy into their own hype too. If they come out believing their own hype, then they are screwed.

Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth

3) Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

What I Like: Donovan McNabb was a nice pickup at QB, and I think McNabb will play well this year. They still have Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin on offense. The players will actually want to play for head coach Leslie Frazier, and no one is really giving them a chance. They will surprise some people, and they will be in the hunt for a playoff spot down the stretch.

What I Don't Like: If McNabb is toasted, then they are handing over the reins to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Their defense is no longer what it once was, and they need more playmakers on offense. Frazier could do no wrong once he took over for Brad Childress, but now the spotlight is really on him. We'll find out if he wilts under the pressure of being a NFL head coach week in and week out with a rabid fanbase.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the NFC North

4) Chicago Bears (5-11)

What I Like: The Bears did get Gabe Carimi in the draft to help with the offensive line. Marion Barber could help them in short yardage and goal line situations. Roy Williams has to been at least a small upgrade at wideout. Jay Cutler put this team on his back at times last year, and I would expect him to continue to develop as a franchise quarterback.

What I Don't Like: This team really overachieved last year, and it is hard to see them taking equaling last year's 11-5 record. Their defense is another year older, and I'm never going to be sold on head coach Lovie Smith. Cutler can be erratic we know that, and losing Olin Kreutz just seems like a really bad blow. Their first three games are brutal: Atlanta, at NO, and Green Bay, and they could get off to an 0-3 start. I just find it hard for the Bears to take the next step this season.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the NFC North

NFC SOUTH

1) New Orleans Saints (10-6)

What I Like: Anytime Drew Brees is your QB, you have a good chance to be a contender. The Saints are well-coached under Sean Payton, and adding Mark Ingram will help their toughness and their running game. The Saints also have the motivation of how last season ended with a shocking loss at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card game. You just get the feeling that they are ready to explode back into the mix of the NFC.

What I Don't Like: Their division is very tough and competitive, so the Saints will be challenged every wee, and there are no easy games. How much did they gain on the Falcons? Their division is a lot tougher then the past two seasons, and their out of division schedule includes the Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the NFC South

2) Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

What I Like: Matt Ryan is definitely a franchise type QB, and he will continue to progress. Head coach Mike Smith has done a great job in changing the culture in Atlanta, and the Falcons have quietly built one of the league's top franchises. Adding a dynamic playmaker with Julio Jones to Roddy White should make them more explosive. Getting Ray Edwards in free agency will be a nice compliment to John Abraham.

What I Don't Like: The way that they got destroyed by the Packers just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It reminds of how when Carolina got beat by Arizona in the 2008 playoffs, and it seemed to send the Panthers into a tailspin that continued into the next season. I think the Falcons are talented, but sometimes teams just don't get the breaks that they did the year before. Something just tells me that the Falcons are going to fall short of their expectations in 2011.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the NFC South

3) Carolina Panthers (7-9)

What I Like: Things can't get worse than it did with last year's 2-14 season. The Cam Newton factor is definitely intriguing, and they were able to resign their top talent (DeAngelo Williams, Charles Johnson and Jon Beason), add Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen, and get Steve Smith to buy in. The Panthers have to look of a really feisty team and will surprise a lot of people.

What I Don't Like: Obviously, anytime you break in a new head coach and rookie quarterback, you are going to have some struggles. We don't know what to expect from Ron Rivera and Cam Newton, and at times it could get dicey. They are in a tough division and are miles behind the Saints and Falcons.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the NFC South

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

What I Like: As much as I continue to be a non-believer, Josh Freeman played very well last year, and he looks like he could become a next level guy in the NFL. If Freeman builds off last season, then the Bucs could become legitimate contenders.

What I Don't Like: Freeman was great last year, but I need to see it again. Also, Raheem Morris did a great job last year, but I'm still not sold on him either. I need to see it again from the bot of them. The Bucs are also getting a lot of publicity this offseason, and I just see them failing to meet those expectations.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the NFC South

NFC WEST

1) Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

What I Like: The move for Kevin Kolb was essential, and I expect him to play really well and help the Cardinals offense. Any kind of play by Kolb this season will be better then what the Cards had last year with their quarterback position. Plus, Ken Whisenhunt is a really good NFL head coach, and he will get the Cardinals back on track.

What I Don't Like: I'm nervous that Kolb could be injury prone or just simply have a rough time in his first real year as a starter. If he struggles, then the Cards are in deep trouble.

Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West

2) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

What I Like: Watch how well coached the Niners are this year under Jim Harbaugh as opposed to when the Niners were coached by Mike Singletary. The 49ers look like they will fit the Harbaugh style of a team: Physical, strong, and grinding. The Niners are headed in the right direction.

What I Don't Like: Alex Smith is still the team's quarterback. No offense to Smith, but we have seen that he is simply not the guy in San Francisco. If the Niners had added Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb, then I would have thought about them stealing the division. They didn't, and I think they are one year away from the playoffs.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the NFC West

3) St. Louis Rams (7-9)

What I Like: Sam Bradford looked like the real deal last year, and he should continue to progress as a franchise-type QB. Josh McDaniels and Bradford could be a lethal combination. Steve Spagnuolo got the Rams from 1-15 to 7-9, and he looks like he can be a very successful head coach. The Rams look like they are headed in the right direction.

What I Don't Like: I did like adding McDaniels as the offensive coordinator, but this year it might be a little tricky. Bradford might struggle more considering he didn't have anytime to learn the offense in the offseason. Plus, it will be interesting to see how Spags feels about McDaniels play-calling and offensive decision making. I don't think it will be a perfect marriage to start. The Rams will be everyone's pick to win the West, but they might not be able to meet the expectations. The Rams still look like they are a year away.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the NFC West

4) Seattle Seahawks (4-12)

What I Like: They did add Sidney Rice in free agency, and Pete Carroll seems to have really gotten his players to buy in to his program. They were able to keep Brandon Mebane on their defensive line, and added Zach Miller and Robert Gallery from the Raiders.

What I Don't Like: How could the Seahawks let Matt Hasselbeck go? If they were going to let him go, how do they think that Tarvaris Jackson is the answer? Jackson is not a big-time, starting QB in the NFL. I'm sorry but the Seahawks completely screwed up their season by going with Jackson. They missed the boat on their replacement for Hasselbeck, and it will cost them dearly.

Prediction: 4-12 and last in the NFC West.

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

1) Philly (12-4) NFC East

2) Green Bay (11-5) NFC North

3) New Orleans (10-6) NFC South

4) Arizona (9-7) NFC West

5) Dallas (10-6) Wild Card

6) Detroit (9-7) Wild Card

Wild Card Weekend

3-New Orleans over 6-Detroit (The Saints knock off the young Lions in New Orleans.)

5-Dallas over Arizona (The Cowboys get their second playoff win in three years.)

Divisional Weekend

1-Philly over 5-Dallas (A classic rivalry meets the playoffs as Vick gets the Eagles to the NFC Title Game.)

3-New Orleans over 2-Green Bay (The Saints defeat the Packers in Lambeau in a rematch of the last two Super Bowl winners.)

NFC Championship

3-New Orleans over 1-Philly (Brees outduels Vick as the Saints head to their second Super Bowl in three years.)

Next Time........AFC Predictions!!!!

2011 NFL Preview!!!

It is so nice to be writing my NFL Predictions column this year. Things looked a little bleak as May turned to June and June turned to July. Everyone thought the NFL would eventually settle the lockout, but it was getting a little too tedious for most fans. Finally, the NFL and NFLPA settled their differences and football was back by July 25th. The following week was crazy and wild as free agency, trades, college signings, and rumors all took center stage. After a wild 10 days, it is just starting to feel like a regular NFL preseason. To be honest, it will be challenging to try to predict the 2011 season. Only when the season actually starts, will we see the real effects on the lockout on teams and players. This year has the possibility of being totally unpredictable, or it might look very similar to last year. It is simply hard to tell at this point, and it is answer we won't have until the season ends. Whatever the case, it is still fun to try and make the same bold predictions that I have made when it comes to a season preview column. As we head into this unprecedented season, I still am going to stick to the formula that I have used in the past. The formula you ask? Here it is:

1)At least six teams will not return to the playoffs from 2010.

2)Six teams will make the playoffs after not making it last year.

3)At least four division winners out of eight will be different.

4) At least one team that lost 10 games the year before will make the playoffs this season.

Those four principles are how to set up your predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Also, there is a new theory that I must throw into play: "The Quarterback Conundrum." If your team has an top-level QB, then you have a chance to make the playoffs every single season. If your team has an average QB, then you are going to need breaks and luck to make the playoffs. If your team has a below average QB, then your simply not going to make a substantial run at the playoffs. The quarterback is so important in today's NFL; therefore, it must be considered a major factor-especially this particular season. Here are the 12 starting QBs from last year's playoff teams: Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, Mike Vick, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck. All of those guys are in Top 15 of the NFL QBs (The exception being Sanchez and Cassel, but those two are arguable). Here are the 2009 NFL Playoff starting QBs: Brady, Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Flacco, Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Rodgers, Brees, and Kurt Warner. Again, there are not real slouches in that group.

With all that said, it feels good to get going with this year's NFL predictions column. It will be fun, and I will continue to try and think outside the box. I will give a little bit about what I like about that certain team, and I will write about what I don't like about that team. Finally, I will give a 2011 prediction with a record. First up is the NFC preview, and then I will follow it with the AFC preview. Enjoy!

The 2011 Sleeper Report

Every year a team that loses at least 10 games the year before comes back and makes the playoffs the next year. This year the NFL has some really interesting possibilities for a sleeper team or two to make the jump into the playoffs. At least one of these teams will make the playoffs in 2011. Here are the sleeper teams in 2011, and here is how I would rank them:

13) Cincinnati Bengals (2010 Record 4-12)

12) Denver Broncos (2010 Record 4-12)

11) Carolina Panthers (2010 Record 2-14)

10) San Francisco 49ers (2010 Record 6-10)

9) Buffalo Bills (2010 Record 4-12)

8) Cleveland Browns (2010 Record 5-11)

7) Washington Redskins (2010 Record 6-10)

6) Minnesota Vikings (2010 Record 6-10)

5) Tennessee Titans (2010 Record 6-10)

4) Detroit Lions (2010 Record 6-10)

3) Dallas Cowboys (2010 Record 6-10)

2) Arizona Cardinals (2010 Record 5-11)

1) Houston Texans (2010 Record 6-10)

Training Camp Report

We are a week into the 2011 Broncos Training Camp, and things seem to be a little more upbeat this year. That certainly will happen when you have a new head coach, and someone like John Fox seems to bring a little more of a positive feeling to the team and the organization. Before we get into the Kyle Orton- TimTebow debate, here are some of the most recent moves the Broncos have made this past week:

1) Denver signed Ty Warren formerly of New England. Warren was let go by the Pats after missing all of last season with a hip injury.

2) The Broncos resigned Marcus Thomas to also bolster their defensive line.

3) Denver acquired Broderick Bunkley from Philadelphia for a late round draft choice in 2013.

4) The Broncos released S Renaldo Hill.

All of these moves on the defensive line look like they can go either way this year. We have been down this road in the past, and the Broncos have gotten burned by trying to sign veteran players, who were once starters, but have health concerns. Warren and Bunkley were both starters and contributors for Pats and the Eagles, but injuries were the main reason they were shown the door. I think that both can help, but I've seen this story before, so I'm going to have to be pessimistic on these two signings. I am happy that the Broncos resigned Thomas because it seems his effort was always there the past few years. He should have a better fit in the Broncos new 4-3 scheme than he did in the 3-4 the past two seasons.

Now, onto the Tebow-Orton debate. First, let me say this: I want Tebow to start. I've said that from day one, and I believe that now is the time to give him a chance to start. If he does well, then we have a QB for the future. If he fails, then we know we have to address that position in the draft next year. With all that said, obviously Kyle Orton is the better quarterback right now. He also gives Denver the best chance to win starting the year, but that is not the simple answer to this QB question. Think about it: If Denver goes 6-10 or even 8-8 this year with Orton, was anything really accomplished? Is that enough for the Broncos to resign Orton and give him a long-term extension? I don't think so; therefore, it is time to start Tebow and see what happens. If Denver goes 8-8 with Tebow, then maybe their quarterback questions are answered.

Next, something is missing in this story. It sounds like the Broncos Front Office decided in the offseason to give Tebow the opportunity to start this year. They put Orton on the trading block, the Dolphins bite, the deal falls through, and Orton remains with the Broncos. After one week of practice, Orton is basically told that he is not going to be traded, and the unofficially named the starter. What changed Denver's mind in a week? Why didn't they put Orton as the number two guy after the trade blew up? Something is missing here.

Let's be honest here, there is no QB controversy in Denver right now. Kyle Orton is the starter, he is taking all the first team reps, and unless he gets hurt in preseason, he will start week 1. If it were a true competition, then Tebow would be getting reps with the first team as well, and that has not been the case at all. Orton will start no matter what type of competition John Fox and his staff are promoting. Perhaps the Broncos have a longterm vision with Tim Tebow in mind, but to sell winning to the team right now, the Broncos staff will say that Orton gives them the best chance to win right now, and Tebow is simply not ready. As much as I hate to admit it, Fox and John Elway haven't really deviated from what they said all offseason. They both said that they probably wouldn't trade Orton, and they didn't. Also, Elway said that he likes Tebow, but he isn't sure if he is going to be ready this year. It looks like Tebow won't get his shot this year, so basically Elway and Fox have laid out this roadmap and have followed it.

Do I think it is a big mistake? Absolutely, but I can't call them liars because this is how they said it probably could play out.

So where does it leave me as a Broncos fan? I want Tebow to be the starting QB for the Broncos. I think this is the right time for him to start, and I think he can be very effective. The Broncos fan base also needs this in a bad way. No offense to Kyle Orton, but we have seen him do what he does, and he is 11-19 as a Broncos starter. It is time for a change, and Tebow is the kind of change that can ignite a franchise and a fan base. The Broncos haven't mattered for the past five years, and it is time for them to matter again. Kyle Orton won't make them matter again, but Tim Tebow will.

Finally, here is my strategy for dealing with this in the next month or two. I am going to root against Kyle Orton in the preseason games. I hope he fumbles, throw picks, looks bad, gets booed, and gets injured (Nothing major but just something that would keep him on the sidelines for at least a month of preseason.) Obviously, I'm going to rooting for Tebow to play lights out and play very well in the preseason. If Orton starts the regular season opener vs Oakland, which he will unless he gets hurt, then I will root for Orton because I'm a Broncos fan, and I want my team to do well and win. If Orton struggles, then I would hope the staff would turn to Tebow at some point to rescue the season. If Orton plays incredible, then perhaps Denver would be on their way to a playoff berth. One way or the other, I just want the best for my Broncos-even if I try to put a spell Orton in the process.