NFL Week 4 Picks!

As we head into the first weekend of October, there are plenty of storylines that are emerging in the 2011 NFL season. The first story is the fact that the Bills and Lions are 3-0. How could you not root for these two teams to do well and continue this surprising start. Both teams last made the playoffs in the 1999 season. For the Bills to come back from 21-0 down to the Patriots and win the game 34-31, that is just remarkable. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a legitimate MVP candidate at this point, and he might be the example of how you can't just give up on your QB after a few seasons and let the guy develop (Unless your QB is Kyle Orton.) The Lions came back from a 20-0 down at Minnesota to pull that one out 26-23 in OT. Both teams are great stories and it will be fun to see how long this plays out. Remember, the Bills were 4-0 back in 2008, then came back to Earth and finished 7-9. The Lions are young, and it will be interesting to see how well they continue to play as the games get bigger and bigger.

The next storyline is the self-annointed "Dream Team" in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-2 and Michael Vick is getting banged around and beaten up. I'm pretty sure the Eagles will be fine, but it will be very interesting to watch how this team plays week in and week out as they get every other team's best shot.

The next storyline involves the Packers. They are 3-0 and look like they are rolling to a NFC North Title and a possible repeat Super Bowl Championship. Can the Pack keep this going all season? Of course there will be some bumps in the road, but Green Bay looks very hard to beat and should be on their way to the 1 seed in the NFC.

The final storyline is how far will the Colts fall. Although they played inspired last Sunday Night in the loss to Pittsburgh, they look like they are headed for a really dreadful season. It doesn't look like Peyton Manning is coming back, and it will be interesting how hard they play as their season continues to crumble.

With more storylines to continue to develop, let's take a dip into the Week 4 picks.......

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1

Overall Record: 22-22-4

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

DALLAS (-2) over Detroit: The game is tough to pick, but I'm going with the Cowboys, but more because I think the Lions' youth will do them in this week. The Lions matchup very well with Dallas, and I could see the Lions jumping out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Cowboys come back and find a way to win it by a field goal at home.

JACKSONVILLE (+7) over New Orleans: I know it is only Blaine Gabbert's second start, but I would have to say that this is my "Hunch of the Week." Young QBs have proven that they aren't overwhelmed in their first few starts, and the Jags always seem to play really well at home as an underdog.

PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco: The Eagles will fight through this early adversity, and you would expect them to play their best game of the season this week at home against the Niners. San Fran is 2-1, but they are the classic "Year Away" team. This game could be closer than the line, but the Eagles right the ship for this week at least.

Washington (-2) over ST.LOUIS: The Rams have proven that they are no way near their preseason potential, but at 0-3 they are still in the mix for the NFC West Title. The Skins played well enough to win at Dallas on MNF, but overall I like where this Washington team is heading. The Skins win late on the road.

CLEVELAND (-1) over Tennessee: The Titans lost Kenny Britt for the season with an ACL tear last week, and Chris Johnson is struggling to get going this season. Both teams come in at 2-1, and this should be a really fun and physical game. The Browns will do enough at home to get the win in a game that just smells like a 13-10 or 16-14 type of game.

CINCY (+3) over Buffalo: A trap game if there ever was one. The Bengals aren't very good, and they looked awful in last week's loss to the Niners, but I have a feeling they pull the upset on the 3-0 Bills.

Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY: A rematch of Super Bowl IV with both teams coming in at 0-3. Sounds like a beauty of a game huh? The Vikings could be 3-0 or at least they should be 2-1. This week they finally get their first win of the season. Todd Haley continues to feel the heat as the Chiefs fall to 0-4.

CHICAGO (-6) over Carolina: The Bears are 1-2, but I just don't think they can matchup against the Packers. I was tempted to pick the Panthers, but Jay Cutler will make a few big plays in this game to get the win at home.

HOUSTON (-3) over Pittsburgh: I really don't like what I have seen from the Steelers this year. Although they are 2-1, they got killed at Baltimore, rebounded with a drubbing of Seattle, and then almost got beat at Indy without Peyton Manning. This is a statement game for the Texans, and they really need to win this game. The Texans will get it done at home.

Atlanta (-4) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks are 1-2, but we all know they are better at home. They are one of the few teams that still have a homefield advantage. The Falcons are struggling at 1-2, and I think they will continue to struggle all year. I am cautious to take Atlanta on the road, but they will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown.

New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA: All week long, I thought the Cards were going to win this game, but now I am changing my thoughts and going with the G-Men. The Giants win over the Eagles last week was a season changer, and I think they will play well and win this week on the road.

Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO: The Chargers and Philip Rivers have not played well in their first three games. Although they are 2-1, they seem like they are playing very sloppy and uninspired. The Dolphins are 0-3, and it is hard to see them winning this game, but they will keep this game close enough to justify taking the points.

OAKLAND (+5) over New England: This is the most surprising line of the week. The Raiders look like the best team in the AFC West, and at 2-1 they look really solid. After they buried the Jets last week, I thought this line would be totally different. The Pats blew a 21-0 lead in the loss at Buffalo, and conventional wisdom says Tom Brady and Bill Belichick won't lose back-to-back games. With all of that, I still think this is a matchup problem for the Pats.

BALTIMORE (-3) over New York Jets: Under Rex Ryan, every time you count the Jets out, they come back and play well and step up to the plate. As much as I like the Jets to do that again this week, this could be the game that really sends Jets fans into a whirlwind. This just smells like a really tough game for the Jets, and the Ravens will put them away in the fourth quarter.

TAMPA BAY (-9) over Indy: I have gone against Josh Freeman and the Bucs too many times. This week I ride the Bucs in a MNF victory over the Colts, who are starting Curtis Painter. I can definitely see the Colts covering, but I have a feeling they are going to throw in the towel on this one.

GREEN BAY (-11) over Denver: The Broncos come in at 1-2 after a really tough loss at Tennessee. Denver really could have won, but it wasn't enough. This game just seems like too tall of an order for the Broncos. There are matchup problems all over the field for the Broncos defense. Their only chance on defense is if they get a good pass rush. Elvis Dumervil might come back this week, so that could help, but it looks like Aaron Rodgers could have a tremendous day against the Broncos secondary. Once again, Kyle Orton is going to have to step up, but the Packers pass rush might be too much for the struggling Broncos offensive line. Charles Woodson should get a few opportunities at turnovers, and the Packers put together a complete game at home.

Final Score: Green Bay-34 Denver-20

Denver Falls to 1-2

Kyle Orton was asked about his game-clinching interception at the end of Sunday's loss to the Titans, and he simply shrugged it off and basically said that it happens sometimes in games. That apathy is just want you want to hear from your starting quarterback. Apathy is what we have in Broncos Country right now. From the starting quarterback all the way down to the fanbase. I don't even get angry anymore when the Broncos lose. I just shrug my shoulders, like what Orton did, and move on. For a franchise that has lost 24 of its last 30 games, apathy is where we are at. Denver's 17-14 loss at Tennessee on Sunday was a tough loss. The Broncos defense held Chris Johnson to just 21 yards. The Broncos had a 14-10 lead into the fourth quarter on the road against a quality opponent. After a Titans touchdown made it 17-14, Denver got the ball back with about four minutes to go. After a big completion to Brandon Lloyd, Orton was position to get the Broncos to attempt a game-tying field goal. Maybe this was the moment that changed everything for Kyle Orton. Unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be...again. Orton's passed was deflected and intercepted and the game was over. This loss stings because the Broncos are now 1-2 and head to Green Bay next week, and they host San Diego in two weeks. Blink and the Broncos could be a dreadful 1-4. The Broncos go from possibly being 3-0, or realistically 2-1 to a tough 1-2 record. Now, as the heat on Kyle Orton starts to mount as the losses mount, we'll see how apathetic he can be.

Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game.......

1) Everyone is going to talk about John Fox's decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line with the Broncos up 14-10. With just over 13 minutes to go in the game, Fox decided to not kick the field goal and the 17-10 lead, but go for the touchdown and the 21-10 lead. The Broncos didn't get it, and they eventually lost the game by three. I totally agree with the decision by Fox to go for it and get the touchdown. I have no problem with it at all. Go for the win there, and I would not second guess Fox again if he did it next week.

2) The only aspect of that sequence that I didn't like was the play call. I wasn't thrilled with a play designed for Willis McGahee up the middle. The Broncos tried that two plays in a row and it didn't work, so it would have been nice to see something else called there.

3) Von Miller continues to play well in the run game, and he got a big sack and forced fumble yesterday. He continues to look like the real deal, and he looks worthy of the number two overall pick.

4) The defense played well yesterday, eventhough Matt Hasselbeck cut them up for 311 yards in the air. For a team without Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey, it was as gutty effort by the defense, and the run defense was very solid. Great tackling and solid fundamental football all around by the Broncos defensive unit.

5) Two times in the first three games, Kyle Orton was responsible for a turnover and the Broncos lost the game. It is amazing though that he always seems to escape the blame from the Broncos coaching staff. After an interception early in the game, he walked off the field and Broncos Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy slaps him on the helmet and says don't worry and nice job. It is amazing how he can basically do no wrong. Once again Orton failed to come through when it mattered most. There was a stat today that I read that said that Orton's QB Rating when his team was down by seven or less in the fourth quarter was 46.2. That number tells you all you need to know about him and his career in Denver. Also, Orton is now 6-20 in his last 26 games as a Broncos starter. When will the front office and coaching staff realize that Orton needs to get benched is anyone's guess. He gets a free pass so many times that who knows when they will pull the plug on this guy.

6) After a tough loss, the Broncos travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. It will not be an easy task, and if the Broncos lose 1-3 will be very tough for them to climb back from.

NFL Week 3 Picks!!

Week 3 is already "Do or Die" for some teams in the NFL. All the teams that are 0-2 face the dreaded possibility of starting out 0-3. Starting out 0-3 in the NFL is pretty much a death blow. Since the NFL expanded to the 12-team format in 1990, only three teams out of 103 have started out 0-3 and made the playoffs (1992 Chargers, 1998 Bills, and 1995 Lions.) It is hard to fathom that we aren't even into October, and some teams are facing a must win game. Here are the teams looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start: Miami, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Seattle, St. Louis, Carolina, and Minnesota. Here is the slate for each team in Week 3:

Miami at Cleveland
Indy vs. Pittsburgh
Kansas City at San Diego
Seattle vs. Arizona
St.Louis vs. Baltimore
Carolina vs. Jacksonville
Minnesota vs. Detroit

The two teams with the toughest games are the Colts and the Chiefs. Both of those teams won their respective divisions and hosted playoff games last year on Wildcard Weekend, and now both of them are staring down the barrel of 0-3. St. Louis has a really tough game too, but they are at home. Plus, the NFC West is so bad that the Rams could still have a shot to win the division with seven or eight wins this year. Seattle hosts Arizona, but even if the Seahawks win to avoid 0-3, they are so bad that they are headed for a terrible season anyway. Carolina and Minnesota have the best chances of the group to avoid 0-3. The Vikings could definitely take care of business at home against the young Lions, and the Panthers could get their first win over the Jags, who are starting Blaine Gabbert for the first time. Whatever the case may be, some team in this group is starting 0-3, and that team's 2011 season could very easily be over already. Onto to the picks for Week 3.......

Last Week's Record: 6-8-2

Overall Record: 15-14-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CINCY (-2) over San Francisco: I'm buying stock in the Andy Dalton Era in Cincinnati. Well, at least for one week I will buy in. Dalton impressed me in the loss at Denver last week, and A.J.Green looks like a stud for the Bengals. The Bengals are not a playoff team this year, but they are not as bad as everyone thought they were going to be. The 49ers aren't bad either, but I still don't trust Alex Smith, especially on the road. Look for the Bengals take care of business in the "Jungle" this week.

BUFFALO (+8) over New England: The big matchup of the day goes to Buffalo hosting New England. How pissed are Jim Nantz and Phil Simms that they are not getting to do this game? The Bills come in a surprising 2-0, and you have to love what you have seen from their offense and Ryan Fitzpatrick the last two weeks. Everyone should be jumping on the Bills bandwagon because it would be a great story if they are good this season. We will find out some answers about them as they host the Patriots this week. The Pats offense and Tom Brady just look fantastic so far this season. What amazes me is the amount of time that Brady actually has on every pass play. It really looks like a 7-on-7 drill in practice. This game could either be 38-14 New England or a lot closer. I'm going to take a chance and say that the Bills keep it close.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Houston: This is the first big test for the Texans as they head to NOLA to take on the Saints. We will find out a lot about Houston in this game. Forget about what you think about Gary Kubiak as a head coach, but this guy and his system (The old Mike Shanahan/Bronco running scheme) always finds a running back. Last year, it was Arian Foster and now this year it is Ben Tate. That running game will be tested against the Saints this week. The Saints looked sluggish early last week, but they put it together to put away the Bears. The best offseason acquisition for the Saints was Darren Sproles. He has played really well for them, and he has made an immediate impact. Look for the Saints to win by a touchdown.

PHILADELPHIA (-7) over NY Giants: The Football Gods are really crapping on the Giants this season. Dominik Hixon, who was supposed to help the Giants are their 3rd WR, went down with a torn ACL in Monday's win over the Rams. I would love to pick the Giants in this spot, but too many injuries and bad karma against the Eagles makes me go against them. Right now, the Eagles own the Giants with a record of 6-1 in their last seven meetings (That includes the playoff game in 2008.) Whether Mike Vick is 100% is irrelevant because the Eagles are just too good for the banged up Giants at this point in the season. Take the Eagles and lay the seven.

Miami (+2) over CLEVELAND: Two things about this game scare me. First, the Browns are not as feisty as I thought they would be. Last week's game against Indy proved that to me. The second thing is that this seems like one of those scores that pops up on the bottom of the screen that just surprises everyone. I could see the Dolphins getting some early turnovers and miscues by the Browns, and the next thing you know you look up and Miami is up 21-0 at the half. I don't like Miami, but I don't know if I can trust the Browns just yet.

MINNESOTA (+3) over Detroit: The young Lions (Sounds like a 1980s WWF tag team) head to Minnesota with a 2-0 record. The Vikings could very well be 2-0, but they blew a 17-7 lead at San Diego and a 17-0 lead at home to the Bucs. The Vikings get Kevin Williams back from a two-game suspension, and look for more of the same from Adrian Peterson. Can the Vikings get a solid, complete game from Donovan McNabb. McNabb hasn't looked good in a start since Week 16 of the 2009 season, when the Eagles beat Denver. If he has a good game, then the Vikings will beat the Lions, who will learn a lesson this week after everyone has patted them on the back the first two weeks of the season.

CAROLINA (-3) over Jacksonville: It is very tempting to pick the Jags here on the road, but the safer play is to take the Panthers at home. Carolina played very well the first two weeks, and they easily could have won both games with a play here or there. Cam Newton has thrown for over 400 yards in each game, but the Packers seem to find a way to get to him last week and forced three interceptions. Newton has been a pleasant surprise so far, but look for defenses to start to clamp down on him now that there is some game tape on him. Blaine Gabbert gets the start for Jacksonville, and anything is an upgrade over Luke McCown's disgraceful performance against the Jets last week. At least Jack Del Rio and the Jags organization has the balls to go with the young guy and build for the future with Gabbert (You hear that Denver?). Look for the Panthers to squeak one out late.

SAN DIEGO (-14) over Kansas City: When I would talk to various Chiefs fans(Yes, there are a few out there), not one of them actually like Todd Haley as a head coach. That was all before this season even started and the Chiefs were coming off a 10-6 season and a division title. Haley is definitely going to be on the hot seat because the Chiefs got destroyed by the Lions in Week 2, and they lost Jamal Charles in the process with an ACL tear. KC heads to San Diego to take on the Chargers. The Chargers at 1-1 look to rebound after their sloppy loss in New England last Sunday. Usually, a 14-point spread is too high to bet, but this one looks so lopsided that I have to take the Chargers. San Diego will stick it to Haley and Chiefs this week and it will get ugly very quickly.

OAKLAND (+3) over NY Jets: The Raiders return to the Black Hole after a tough loss on the road in Buffalo, which they lead 21-3 at halftime. The Jets go West with a 2-0 start, but they have some questions to be answered. Just how good are these Jets? Can they get their running game going? Will another trip to Oakland be another house of horrors for them? The Jets historically struggle in Oakland, but the one thing that scares me about this game for the Jets is that they will be without C Nick Mangold. The Raiders defensive line, led by Richard Seymour, is as physical of a defensive line there is so far this season. It will be very interesting to see if the Jets can run the ball on the Raiders this week. Another fascinating storyline in this game will be if the Raiders can get Darren McFadden going against the Jets defense. This should be a real fun game, but my only concern is that CBS will show about 1,000 clips of the "Heidi Bowl." Look for Oakland to intercept a late Mark Sanchez pass to win the game.

Baltimore (-4) over ST.LOUIS: Watching Josh McDaniels call the Rams' offense Monday Night got me thinking something. How fair is it that McDaniels can completely botch every trade, personnel move, and draft pick in Denver for two years, and just leave and go call plays for Sam Bradford on another team? Shouldn't the league have stepped him and made him sit for a few years! Roger Goodell should have suspended him for basically butchering the Broncos franchise for that time period. Anyway, with that off my chest, I like the Ravens this week on the road. Everyone was predicting that the Rams would run away with the NFC West with Bradford leading the way. The problem is that although Bradford looks good, he is struggling in the red zone. You can't settle for field goals in the NFL. The Ravens took their lumps last week in a road loss to the Titans, but look for them to come back and win this game going away on the road.

Atlanta (+2) over TAMPA BAY: Josh Freeman got me again last week. I thought I learned my lesson last year when Freeman constantly led the Bucs back to beat me with my pick, but I had the Vikings last week, and I got burned again. You would think that I would learn my lesson, but I have a hunch that the Falcons will play well enough to win this game on the road. The Bucs are looking at their 10th straight blackout at home. With no real homefield advantage to speak of, take the Falcons on the road.

Arizona (-3) over SEATTLE: What was Pete Carroll thinking when he signed Tarvaris Jackson to be his starting QB? I know Jackson knows the system from Minnesota, but it has turned out to be a terrible move so far. Kevin Kolb has been impressive so far this seasons, and the Cardinals almost pulled one out in Washington last week. I'm picking against the Seahawks until they bench Jackson, which might be after this week.

CHICAGO (+4) over Green Bay: Did anyone see Jay Cutler's epic sideline rant last week in New Orleans? After Cutler was sacked and buried on a series, he cursed out his position coach, and basically threw a tantrum on the sidelines in disgust. I wish NFL Films had a microphone on Cutler everyweek with the Bears troubles on the offensive line. This game seems so obviously one-sided for the Packers, but I'm going to go with the upset here and take the Bears. These teams know each other very well, and the Packers secondary hasn't played very well in the first two games. Somehow Cutler and the Bears pull this one out.

Pittsburgh (-10) over INDY: The Colts are done. Forget about them, they are finished for 2011. The Steelers come in after a convincing win over the Seahawks last week, and they will pounce on Kerry Collins all night long. Look for the Steelers to put this game away early. It is too bad NBC can't use the Flex Schedule this week and flex this game out. The questions for the Colts the remainder of the year will be: Does Peyton Manning return at some point this season? and Will they take Andrew Luck if they have the number one pick in the 2012 Draft?

Washington (+5) over DALLAS: Give Tony Romo credit. One week he is the goat, and last week he was the hero. Playing with a cracked rib is one thing, but playing with a punctured lung is another. The Cowboys seem like they will be up and down every week. You don't really know what you are going to get with them. The Redskins have looked solid in their first two wins, but now they take Rex Grossman on the road. This line just seems too high. The Skins keep it within a field goal and might just pull it off in the end.

TENNESSEE (-6) over Denver: The Broncos were begging to give that game away last week to the Bengals. They were able to hold on and win and even their record to 1-1. This week could be a lot different for them. This is the first time they go on the road, and the Titans are a quality opponent. This is very similar to this time last year. The Broncos were 1-2 and headed to Nashville. The Broncos couldn't run the ball and Kyle Orton was getting killed everytime he dropped back to pass. Somehow Denver's defense was able to contain Chris Johnson, and Orton rallied Denver to a late win 26-20. That was the last positive moment of the Josh McDaniels Era in Denver. The Broncos are still banged up and will probably be without Champ Bailey, Marcus Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal, and Julius Thomas. They will have game-time decisions for Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, and D.J. Williams. The Titans are going to try and run right at the Broncos defense. Plus, they have Matt Hasselbeck ready to pick them apart if Chris Johnson falters. If the Broncos can't get Willis McGahee going on the ground, then they are in deep trouble. If Kyle Orton wants respect and wants to be treated like an elite NFL QB, then this is a game he has to put on his shoulders and win. That just might be too tall of an order for Orton.
Final Score: Tennessee: 27 Denver: 10

Broncos Outlast Bengals in Week 2 Victory

The Broncos got their first win of the 2011 season with a win over the Bengals at home 24-22. The win evens the Broncos record at 1-1, and they head to Tennessee to take on the 1-1 Titans on Sunday. This was a weird game, and a game that someone had to win. The Broncos are banged up and depleted severely with injuries, but they were able to find a way to win a game that they controlled for the most part. The fact that this game was even decided on the Bengals last possession was almost criminal, but in the end the Broncos were able to win a game they had to win. Give the Bengals credit for coming back and mounting a comeback, but Denver's injuries and lack of depth really might have been the real factor in spurring the comeback. The Broncos get the victory, but with injuries mounting and issues still coming up on both sides of the ball, this Bronco team could be in trouble going forward. Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game....

1) Beautiful first drive by the Broncos to start the game. Nice mix of pass and run that was capped off by Willis McGahee's one yard touchdown run. Remember when the Broncos always used to get off to a fast start at home under Mike Shanahan? Well, that was what Denver did on Sunday and jumped out to the early 7-0 lead.

2) Denver's defense did a nice job of forcing punts after two series in which they faced third and one situations. Their defense played well early on in the game.

3) Kyle Orton played well through the first three quarters. His 25 yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker was a beautiful paly, and gave the Broncos a big 17-3 lead early in the third quarter.

4) Up 17-6 midway through the third quarter, the Broncos offense seemed to fall asleep. Instead of keeping the foot on the gas, they took it off the gas a little and it gave the Bengals a chance to get back into the game. The Broncos and Kyle Orton need to get more aggressive there and finish off these type of games.

5) After an Andy Dalton touchdown pass to cut the lead to 17-12, Denver starts to lose control of the game. Orton gets sacked and fumbles, he always seems to have a critical fumble, and now the Bengals have completely turned this game around. The Broncos were able to hold the Bengals to a field goal and keep the lead, but this game completely turned on Denver and gave the Bengals hope.

6) Ryan Clady's holding call really backed up the Broncos prior to Orton's fumble. Is anyone else worried about Clady? Does he get called for a big holding penalty everygame dating back to last season? Keep an eye on Clady, and I hope he snaps out of it.

7) Give Orton credit because he made a great throw to Eric Decker for a 52 yard touchdown and give Denver a 24-15 lead. Great throw, great adjustment by Decker, and that play was huge in getting the Broncos back to a nine point lead.

8) I'm not going to kill the defense in this game because they are without three of the best players on their unit, but you can't give up an 84 yard pass by Andy Dalton two plays later. Dalton then hooked up with A.J. Green for a five yard pass and cut the Bronco lead to 24-22. At this point, you had the feeling that the Broncos were somehow going to blow this game.

9) The Broncos going three and out, and you can't have that in that situation. Two runs by McGahee and an incomplete pass by Orton gives the Bengals a chance to take the lead. You have to get a few first downs there. You can't go three and out.

10) The Broncos get the ball back after forcing the Bengals to punt. With 3:04 left, Clady gets called for holding on first down which was a killer penalty. The Broncos run three times with McGahee, who for some reason gets tackled out of bounds, and they have to punt the ball back to Dalton and Bengals.

11) Give the Broncos credit, their defense made a stop when they had to in order to win the game. The big play was the sack by Wilhite on 2nd and 10 at the Broncos 48. Two incomplete passes later, and the Broncos had their first win and the first win for John Fox as Broncos head coach.

12) As stated before, it was a gutty win because of all the injuries the Broncos have endured so far this season. Eddie Royal and Julius Thomas both suffered injuries on Sunday, and they are both expected to miss at least a few weeks.

13) Next week's game at Tennessee will be a real test, and it will be a challenge for the banged up Broncos to go on the road and take care of business against the underrated Titans.

NFL Week 2 Picks!

Week 2 of the NFL season is upon us, and this week can be very deceiving. Why is that? It is pretty simple: We don't really know for sure who is good and who is bad. Obviously, we know New England is good, but really how good is Baltimore? We know that Green Bay is good, but just how good are Oakland or Buffalo? Is Kansas City that bad? Are the Falcons and Steelers in trouble? There are so many questions in the league right now, and Week 2 won't be able to answer all of them. It will just provide us with some more clues into who is going to be really good this year, and who will be really, really bad. Remember the first three or four weeks of the NFL season can be tricky. Some teams will start off hot, but fizzle down the stretch. You can't win the Super Bowl in September, you can only put yourself in position for November and December. Onto the the picks for Week 2....

Last Week's Record: 9-6-1
Overall Record: 9-6-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Chicago: The Bears really shocked me with their blowout win over Atlanta, but they come back down to Earth this week. The Saints have 10 days to prepare for this game, and eventhough they are banged up at wideout, Drew Brees still should be able to carry them to victory. Expect a close game, but the Saints win by a touchdown late.


Kansas City (+8) over DETROIT: The Lions will probably win the game, but I think this line is a little too high. The Chiefs were embarrased last week at home against Buffalo, and the KC is in for a long season, but if they had any spine they will play well enough to keep this game close. The young Lions shouldn't be eight point favorites over anyone at this point. Look for a closer game than many people think.

NY JETS (-9) over Jacksonville: This line can't be high enough. The Jags come into this game at 1-0, but they are in deep trouble. You can't bet on Luke McCown on the road against anyone-especially the Jets. The Jet defense should have a field day on this Jaguar offense. This seems like a 27-3 type of game. The Jets get to 2-0.

Oakland (+3) over BUFFALO: The Bills came out flying on Sunday and buried the Chiefs 41-7 in Arrowhead. The Raiders churned out a 23-20 win over Denver on Monday Night. This easily becomes one of the best Week 2 games featuring two teams at 1-0. I was very impressed with the Raiders defensive line on Monday Night, and their front seven will be the difference as the Raiders get to 2-0.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Arizona: This game could be very entertaining. Mike Shanahan always has his team ready for the start of a season. That was very evident as the Redskins defeated the Giants last week. The Cards come in after a victory over the Panthers, and this looks like a very good game on paper. Take the Skins laying the three points. Look for Rex Grossman to continue his solid play at home.

TENNESSEE (+6) over Baltimore: Are the Ravens as good as they looked on Sunday in their win over the Steelers? In my opinion, I don't think so. Everyone is going to underestimate the Titans after their loss to the Jaguars in Week 1. Don't sleep on the Titans, and this game could be one of those "head scratchers" that you see on the scroll on the bottom the screen during one of the other early games. The Titans come out and play hard, and get the win at home.

Seattle (+14) over PITTSBURGH: Let me make this clear: I am not picking Seattle to win the game. The Steelers will win this game and win it convincingly, but I just can't lay the 14 points. This has a Tavaris Jackson back door cover written all over it, but expect the Steelers to bounce back from last week's loss and play very solid this week. Tarvaris Jackson and that offensive line on the road in Pittsburgh is a pretty ugly matchup.

Green Bay (-9) over CAROLINA: Everyone will be drinking the Cam Newton Kool-Aid this week and for good reason. The kid threw for 422 yards in his first ever start, but I have a feeling Dom Capers will come up with a nice little defensive scheme to contain him. Look for the defending Super Bowl Champions to roll on the road in Carolina.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Tampa Bay: I'm still not sold on the Bucs, and last week's loss at home to Detroit just added fuel to the fire. As bad as Donovan McNabb looked last week, I think he can still play a decent level. Look for a lot of Adrian Peterson, and look for McNabb to play a lot better at home this week. It seems like no one like the Vikings at all, but they played hard last week and almost pulled off the upset in San Diego. They beat the Bucs this week to get to 1-1, while everyone's darling falls to 0-2.

Cleveland (-2) over INDY: How are the Browns not favored by a touchdown in this game? Doesn't anyone see how bad the Colts are without Peyton Manning? The Browns struggled last week, but look for them to play better and get more out of Colt McCoy. The Colts will probably play better too, but it won't be enough as the Browns take them down in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO: Remember when these two teams were the two best and most popular teams in the NFL? This was the matchup to watch back in the 90s. Now, it is a game with Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick calling it for FOX instead of Pat Summeral and John Madden. The Niners are getting better and Jim Harbaugh will get it turned around. I was really impressed with the Cowboys last week. Eventhough they lost, their offense and pass rush impressed me enough to think that they could definitley be a playoff team. The Cowboys win this one late in SF.

Houston (-3) over MIAMI: This game seems so obvious on paper but in reality it might be a lot more difficult to figure out. Just how good are the Texans after they destroyed the Colts without Manning? Is the Dolphin defense that bad after it got scorched for over 600 yards of total offense to Tom Brady and the Pats? This game looks like it will be all Texans, but I'm not so sure. This one could end up being a lot closer, but in the end look for the Texans to pull it out late and avoid the upset.

San Diego (+6) over NEW ENGLAND: Great matchup in the late window on Sunday afternoon. The Chargers special teams gave away so many games last year that you would expect them to really tighten things up in that area going into the 2011 season. The result of all that hard work on special teams: The Chargers give up the opening kickoff for a touchdown against Minnesota to start their season. You have to like how SD bounced back and regrouped from that and being down 17-7. They ripped off 17 unanswered points, and defeated Minnesota 24-17 at home. The Patriots looked like the Patriots. Brady throws for over 55 yards, including a back-breaking 99 yard throw to Wes Welker, and the Patriot offense looks in midseason form in a 38-24 win over Miami last Monday Night. The Chargers always have trouble in New England, but this week just feels different. Look for San Diego to put the ball in Philip Rivers' hands and make him go after the New England defense. This could be a shootout, but I'll take Rivers and the Chargers in an upset in Foxborough.

Philadelphia (-2) over ATLANTA: The Sunday Night game is a real good one too. Mike Vick goes back to Atlanta as the Eagles starting QB. The real storyline in this game though is the Falcons. What happened to Atlanta in Week 1? Are they okay and ready to rebound? Well, we will find out this week. It is a tough game for the Falcons, but now they are banged up on the defensive side of the ball. It is hard to see the Falcons being able to stop the Eagles consistently in this game. Look for it to be close, but the Eagles will make the plays when they have to in order to win the game.

NY GIANTS (-6) over St. Louis: This game would have some serious upset potential, but the Rams are just too banged up.The Giants are 0-1 and have had a dark cloud hovering over them since the lockout ended. Last week's loss didn't help to appease the critics. The Giants always seem to play well when their backs are against the wall. It seems like they like the "Us Against the World" mentality. They get a break this week at home on Monday Night because the Rams are battered and bruised. The Giants need a win, and they get it done this week.

DENVER (-3) over Cincinnati: Speaking of dark clouds, the Broncos host the Bengals in Week 2. The Bengals come in at 1-0 on the heels of their victory over the Browns on the road last week. It looks like Andy Dalton will start for Cincy on Sunday. The Broncos have had one hell of a week. If one more national NFL analyst questions why Broncos fans booed Kyle Orton and want him out of there, then I am going to seriously jump through my television and punch one of these guys? They make it like Orton is a top 10 QB. You know why Bronco fans want Orton out? Because he is not the answer to our QB situation!!!! Can someone stop looking at stats and watch a game with Orton as the Broncos starting QB? Did anyone mention that he is 5-19 in his last 24 starts as a Bronco? Bronco fans just want something different that's all! Stop making it out like Orton is the next Joe Montana. Also, Denver lost Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, Knowshon Moreno, and Brandon Lloyd to various injuries. It looks like Bailey and Moreno won't play this week, Dumervil will not play and might not be back until next week, and Lloyd might indeed play. The deck looks pretty stacked against Denver and they are playing a team that is really underrated. The Bengals defense is pretty good, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them give Denver's offense some problems. The Broncos are going to get a heavy dose of Cedric Benson after their run defense got gashed by Oakland. This looks like one of those games where Denver goes out and lays an egg to Cincy. That could happen, but I'm going to go out and say that Denver shows some guts this week. If Denver were to lose this week, then the Broncos are 0-2 and staring at games at Tennessee, at Green Bay and home to San Diego. 0-5 might not be very far behind. I think the Broncos put enough together to get the job done this week. Even with all the injuries, the Broncos will find a way to get this game home. I could see the Bengals jumping out to a 10-0 lead, but then the Broncos settle down and play well enough to pull this one out. Denver wins a tough one at home.

Final Score: Denver-19 Cincy-13

Raiders Bounce Broncos in Season Opener

I told myself I wasn't going to get too worked up this season. The past five seasons have been tough for Broncos fans. 2006 ended on New Year's Eve with a brutal overtime loss to the Niners that knocked Denver out of the playoffs at 9-7. CB Darrent Williams was subsequently killed that night. 2007 was a miserable season that left Denver out of the playoffs again, but the only silver lining was the Jay Cutler-Brandon Marshall connection (That lasted long huh.) In '08, Denver was 8-5 and only needed one win or a Chargers loss to make the playoffs in the final three games. That three game collapse led me into a dark and desperate drinking binge as I watched the Broncos implode and finish 8-8. 2009 brought us the 6-0 start, and then a record of 8-4 with four games to play. Denver loses all four and finishes 8-8 and out of the playoffs again. 2010 was a debacle, and the season was over by Halloween, and the Bronx finished 4-12.

I vowed to myself that this season I would just relax and try to not get too angry at a team with a new head coach, and the greatest player in team history coming back to run the organization. Well, that lasted until about 1:00 am on Monday Night in the season opening loss to the Raiders in Denver. At about that time Kyle Orton simply dropped the ball as he was about to throw to a wide open Daniel Fells, who walks into the end zone, that would have given the Broncos a improbable 17-16 lead in the fourth quarter a game that they had no right winning. It also might have been the moment that turned Orton's career around in Denver. Of course, Orton drops the ball and the Raiders recovered and turned it into a 23-13 lead and pretty much ended the Broncos hopes.

It wasn't the way that John Fox, John Elway, or Kyle Orton had the 2011 season transpiring, but once again the Raiders come into Denver and beat down the Broncos 23-20. That is four straight wins in Denver, and Darren McFadden simply owns Denver. There is so much to discuss here, but to me the real story is and always will be around Orton. He played terrible last night, and his two turnovers were backbreakers. I can't say this enough but Orton simply isn't the guy. He isn't the guy you can just hitch your wagons to and win games with. Did you know that Orton is 5-19 in his last 24 starts? What QB would continue to keep their job after losing 19 out of his last 24 games as a starter? Forget about who would replace Orton at this point, the bottom line was last night was exactly what we have seen in Orton. At some point, the Broncos simply have to put Orton on the bench and move on, preferably with Tim Tebow. How much longer do we have to put up with this? Watching last night's game, I am pretty sure that this team is simply not good enough to make the playoffs. 8-8 would be a great season for the Broncos, so why not give the ball to Tebow and find out what we have in a future QB. Three starts by Tebow is not enough to see if he is the real deal, but the last 24 starts by Orton have proved exactly what he is.

Here are my other quick thoughts and observations from last night's game:

1) What a start for Von Miller with the hit and forced fumble on Jacoby Ford on the Raiders first play from scrimmage. Unfortunately, the Broncos couldn't convert and had to settle for a field goal and a 3-0 lead.

2) After going up 3-0, the Broncos really didn't do anything at all offensively. Knowshon Moreno fumbled a few series later, and next thing you know Denver was down 10-3.

3) I hated the call by Fox when he went for the 56 yard field goal attempt. I thought Fox was conservative and loved to punt the ball down. Instead, Fox sends out Matt Prater to attempt the kick, but that was the wrong call. Denver's defense wasn't playing that bad at that point, and they should have punted down and played defense and field position. Prater missed and the Raiders used the field position to take a 13-3 lead.

4) Orton's pick came at a terrible time, and give Sebastian Janokowski buries a 63 yard field goal as time expires in the half. To add insult to injury, a Raider kicker ties Jason Elam's record field goal in Denver.

5) At 16-3, the Broncos seemed like they were dead in the water. Eric Decker brought some life back with a 90 yard punt return early in the third quarter. That was a huge turning point, and got Denver back into the game.

6) Orton drove the Broncos down inside the Raiders 10 on the next series (Thanks to a crazy amount of Raiders penalties), but once again Orton can't convert in the red zone, and the Broncos settled for a momentum-killing field goal to cut the lead to 16-13. A touchdown there would have been a huge moment in this game.

7) After the infamous Orton fumble, Darren McFadden sliced through the Broncos for a 47 yard run down to the one. A Jason Campbell plunge gave the Raiders a 23-13 lead midway through the fourth quarter. That was such a pivotal moment and a 14 point swing.

8) Of course, Orton gets hot down 10 with Tebow chants resonating through the crowd. His touchdown pass to Lance Ball cuts the lead to 23-20, but the Broncos couldn't get the ball back because the Raiders got three first downs to run out the clock. When you need a stop with around four minutes left and two timeouts, your defense needs to get off the field. The defense couldn't and that was the ball game.

9) Too many fights and penalties marred this game. The game was ugly and rain added to the sloppiness. The game was chippy all night, and the constant flags were ridiculous.

10) As bad as a loss this was for the Broncos, they are not as bad as you might think they are. It doesn't help that Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, Brandon Lloyd, and Knowshon Moreno all might miss next week's game with various injuries. Remember this about Week 1: Your team is not as bad as you think, and your team is not as good as you think.

11) The Broncos will try to rebound next Sunday at home against the Bengals. The Bengals look a little dangerous after their 27-17 road win over Cleveland. This could be a very tricky game-especially if the Broncos are without some of those four players mentioned above. If Denver starts off 0-2, Orton might literally get run out of town. I am serious he really might have to pack up and move out of Denver!

COMING FRIDAY: WEEK 2 PICKS!!!!!

What We Learned from Week 1.....So Far

Week 1 of the NFL season is about to conclude with two Monday Night Football games tonight (NE/MIA and of course Denver/Oakland). With everyone either jumping on someone's bandwagon (The Bills are back!) or jumping off someone's Titantic (The Steelers are done!) let's see what we learned so far about the NFL in 2011.

1) The Colts are really screwed without Peyton Manning. Losing Manning is everything to Indy, and their 34-7 loss to Houston wasn't even that close. The Colts are in serious trouble this year.

2) The Steelers will be fine. Yes, they got blasted by the Ravens 35-7, but I'm pretty sure the Steelers will regroup and be okay. They are still a good team, and opening up at Baltimore is not an easy draw for Week 1.

3) The Packers are still the team to beat in the NFL. The belt that the Packers flaunted after their Super Bowl win last year is very symbolic because they looked like the best team in the NFL on Thursday Night. Yes, I know their defense gave up 34 points, but Aaron Rodgers and that offense looked unstoppable.

4) If the Cowboys stay healthy and don't shoot themselves in the foot (Yes you Tony Romo) then they are going to be a playoff team. They had the Jets dead to rights on Sunday Night and couldn't finish them off. Their passing game is the real deal.

5) The Chiefs look like they are headed for a long, long season. Not only do they fumble the opening kickoff of the season, they lose Eric Berry for the year to a torn ACL, and they get blown out by the Bills 41-7 at home. Thanks for coming down KC!

6) The Jets just seem to ride a magic carpet ride under Rex Ryan. Sunday Night's win over the Cowboys was not only the best game of the day, but it was like the 3,000th time I counted out the Jets in a game in the last three years, only to see them come back and win the game.

7) Settle down Houston. You beat the Colts without Peyton Manning. You didn't win the AFC South yet.

8) The same goes for fans of the Ravens, Redskins, and Bears. Nice wins by all three, but let's wait and see how this season plays out a bit before we start crowning these teams division champs.

9) Don't jump off the bridge Giants fans. It looked pretty bad yesterday in the loss at Washington, but the G-Men will be competitive this season. The Giants seem to thrive on being the team with their backs against the wall.

10) St. Louis by far had the worst opening day. They lost 31-13 at home to Philly, and they got banged up in the process. Steven Jackson went down with a quad injury, Sam Bradford hurt his finger, Dan Amendola hurt his elbow, and O.J. Otogwe got injured as well. Not a good start for the young Rams.

11) Anytime a rookie QB throws for 422 yards in his debut, that is pretty impressive. Cam Newton might just make the Panthers relevant again.

12) Lastly, the NFL did a really nice job with all their pregame ceremonies dealing with the 10th anniversary of September 11th. It was touching, well done, and touched the right nerve. Good job NFL!

NFL Week 1 Picks!!!

Yes, it is that time of the year again. The NFL kickoff is right around the corner, and everything starts to get going again. Pregame shows, fantasy football leagues, suicide pools, wall-to-wall coverage of the NFL on television, the radio and the internet, highlight shows, and of course all the action that the NFL delivers. Every Sunday is like Christmas morning from now until the Super Bowl in February. The other exciting aspect of the NFL season starting is of course gambling and betting on all the games. Last year, I had a breakout season with my picks. I finished the regular season 132-118-8. That is not a bad year, but the challenge will be to see if I can keep it up and continue to have success this year. This season will be tough because with the lockout wiping away most of the offseason, how many teams are really prepared for the beginning of the season? How many teams might have lost a step due to the lockout? These first few weeks could be hard to navigate, but I'll try to find my way through it. I'm just glad we are finally talking about Week 1 and picking games! Onto the picks......

Last Season: 132-11-8-

This Season: 0-0

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New Orleans (+4) over GREEN BAY: A thrilling matchup of the past two Super Bowl winning teams to kickoff the 2011 season on Thursday Night. Usually, the defending champions have success in their Thursday Night opener-each Super Bowl winner has won their opener dating back to the 2004 season- but I have a feeling the Saints will be ready to go and pull the mild upset in Lambeau. It should be a fun game, and a wild shootout between Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but take the Saints and the points on the road.

Pittsburgh (+2) over BALTIMORE: What a slugfest right out of the gate to start season on Sunday afternoon. I love this matchup, and these two rivals always produce great drama. Don't be shocked to see the Steelers win a close one on the road. These games are always tight and almost always come down to a few plays in the fourth quarter. The Steelers come up with just one more play yet again to knock off the Ravens in Week 1.

Detroit (+1) over TAMPA BAY: Another road team takes down the home favorite in Week 1. This could be the Lions coming out party. I love them in this matchup. I'm not sold on the Bucs this season, and this is the type of game that Detroit makes a statement. Look for the Lions to win and win convincingly.

Atlanta (-3) over CHICAGO: My fourth road team to win outright this week so far. The Bears are due for a really down year. Atlanta is a solid team, and they will be able to bring offense anywhere they play. This one looks like a marquee game on paper, but it smells like a blowout. The Falcons take care of business methodically at Soldier Field.

Buffalo (+5) over KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have had a terrible run since the day Charlie Weis announced he was leaving to go to the University of Florida. Their preseason was no better than the end of last season. To make matters worse, KC lost starting TE Tony Moeaki for the season in their last preseason game. Matt Cassel also injured his ribs in that game, but he should be able to start. Even if he does start, I still like the Bills to pull the upset. Buffalo played them tough last year in Arrowhead, and actually they should have won the game late. The Chiefs are going nowhere this year, and it starts off with a thud at home. Look for the Bills to come out on top.

HOUSTON (-8) over Indy: I know this is setting up as one of those classic "Obvious Games." Those games look so good on paper, and you think that there is no way a certain team loses this obvious win. Of course, the total opposite happens and you realize that there is no winning in betting. This game has the obvious potential of a Houston rout because of the fact that Peyton Manning won't play barring a miracle. Manning means so much to the Colts that there is no way they can recover for this game. I don't care if Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter or even "Captain Comeback" Jim Harbaugh starts at QB for the Colts, Houston rolls in a laugher.

Philly (-5) over ST.LOUIS: I love the Eagles in this game. Even with all the hype surrounding them, I have a feeling they come out smoking in Week 1. The Rams are a lot better, but everyone is handing them the NFC West, and I'm not so sure about that. Look for the Eagles to bring their "A" game and take out the Rams on the road.

CLEVELAND (-6) over Cincy: The Browns are my sleeper team this year, and I think they get off on the right foot with a win over Cincy. This won't be an easy game for the Browns, but they will do enough to win by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+3) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars are a strange team to pick every week. They have no real name players, yet you look up in early December and they are 7-5 and in prime position for a playoff berth. Then, the roof caves in and they fall apart and miss the playoffs. This year will be different for the Jags, and I think they struggle from day one. The Titans are better than people think, and now that Chris Johnson is signed and ready to go, the Titans will get off to a fast start with a win on the road against their AFC South rivals.

WASHINGTON (+3) over NY Giants: The Giants just completed one of the worst preseasons ever. The Osi Saga started things off, and then they lost popular players like Shaun O'Hara, Steve Smith, and Kevin Boss. The G-Men also took a hit when they lost CB Terrell Thomas to a season-ending knee injury. Prince Amukamara is out for a few months and Marvin Austin and Clint Sintim are both gone for the year. It just seems like a black cloud is hanging over this team right now. On the other hand, the Redskins had a great preseason and looked really good. Rex Grossman gets the starting nod, and Mike Shanahan usually has his teams prepared and ready to go early on. Look for the Skins to bury the Giants in Washington.

ARIZONA (-7) over Carolina: The Kevin Kolb Era vs. The Cam Newton Era! I can see Newton making some big plays with his feet in this game, but he should struggle in his first ever NFL start. This game is tailor made for the Cards to get off on the right foot with a win, and they will pretty decisively.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5) over Seattle: Last year, San Francisco rolled into Seattle in Week 1 and got smoked. That loss set the table for a bad season for the 49ers. This year the tables could be turned. The 49ers will jump all over Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks early, and Jim Harbaugh will notch his first NFL head coaching win.

Minnesota (+8) over SAN DIEGO: The Vikings might not win this game outright, but that spread is way too high. Donovan McNabb has a lot to prove this year, and this could be one of those games that he does just that. How about a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson all day long? The Chargers are shaky early in the season, and they'll probably pull out the win, but this should be closer than people expect.

NY JETS (-4) over Dallas: An entertaining matchup to kickoff Sunday Night Football on NBC. This should be a close game, and the Cowboys might be able to create some problems for the Jets defense, but I can't see the Jets losing their opener at home. The Jets should do just enough to win this game by a touchdown.

New England (-7) over MIAMI: New England struggled to defeat Buffalo a few years ago on the season opener of Monday Night Football. That game sticks in my head when looking at this matchup. It looks like a no-brainer to pick the Pats to win easily, but this game could be tricky. In the end, I'm going to take New England because of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but this could be a close one.

DENVER (-3) over Oakland: The Raiders are probably a better team than Denver right now, but this game seems to favor the Broncos. I am worried about Denver's run defense against the Raiders running attack with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Broncos should be able to unleash Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil all night on Jason Campbell. The Broncos will probably struggle to run the ball effectively early, but if they can get the lead, then they can continue to hammer at it and try to impose their will on the Raiders. This game looks very close on paper, but there are a few key factors that sway me to the Broncos. First, they are opening against the Raiders. Secondly, the Broncos are opening at home for the first time since 2004. Third, they should have the memory of last year's 59-14 debacle fresh in their minds. Fourth, they have a new head coach making his debut. Lastly, they are wearing the orange alternate jerseys! All the signs point to a tight game, with Kyle Orton (Shockingly!) leading the Broncos down the field for a late score and the win. God it is great to have football back.

FINAL SCORE: Denver-24 Oakland-20

2011 Predictions Revision and Cheat Sheet 2.0

Okay, so I already changed my picks once, but I still have to right to revise the picks before the season actually kicks off on Thursday. I have to bail on Indianapolis. It looks like Peyton Manning is going to be out indefinitely and no one knows when he is coming back. I can't stick with the Colts if he is going to be out any extended time. I'm taking the Colts out of the playoffs and putting the Jets back in. I'm going to give the Jets the 10-6 record and bump the Colts to 8-8. So here is my final revision for the 2011 AFC predictions.....

1-San Diego (12-4)

2-New England (11-5)

3-Pittsburgh (10-6)

4-Houston (10-6)

5-NY Jets (10-6)

6-Cleveland (9-7)

AFC Wild Card Weekend

5-NY Jets over 4-Houston (The Jets win their 5th road playoff game in three years.)

3-Pittsburgh over 6-Cleveland (The Steelers edge out their longtime bitter rivals.)

AFC Divisional Round

1-San Diego over 5-NY Jets (Chargers get revenge from 2009 Divisional loss.)

2-New England over 3-Pittsburgh (No way Brady and Belichick lose four straight playoff games.)

AFC Title

1-San Diego over New England (Chargers get to first Super Bowl since 1994 season.)

Here are my NFC Playoff Predictions (No Changes Made):

1-Philly (12-4)

2-Green Bay (11-5)

3-New Orleans (10-6)

4-Arizona (9-7)

5-Dallas (10-6)

6-Detroit (9-7)

NFC Wild Card Weekend

3-New Orleans over 6-Detroit

5-Dallas over Arizona

Divisional Weekend

1-Philly over 5-Dallas

3-New Orleans over 2-Green Bay

NFC Championship

3-New Orleans over 1-Philly

SUPER BOWL

San Diego over New Orleans

After all that I finally have nailed down my picks. My formula still applies. I have the following:

1) 6 out 12 new playoff teams (San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Arizona, Dallas, Detroit)

2) 6 playoff teams from 2010 dropping out (Baltimore, Kansas City, Indy, Atlanta, Seattle, Chicago)

3) At least 4 out of 8 division winners different from 2010 (SD, Houston, Arizona, Green Bay, and New Orleans)

4) At least one team that lost 10 games in 2010 makes the playoffs (Dallas, Houston, Cleveland, Detroit, Arizona)

So there it is the 2011 NFL predictions revised and ready to go. Maybe next year I should wait just a little longer before I make all my predictions.

Broncos 53 Man Roster Set.....For Now

The Broncos made their final roster moves on Saturday afternoon to get the 53 man roster. The Broncos also announced their practice squad on Sunday. They made one additional roster tweak on Sunday when they waived S Darcel McBath and signed CB Johnathan Wilhite formerly of New England. McBath's release is just another stain on the Josh McDaniels Era. All three of McD's second round picks from 2009 (McBath, Richard Quinn and Alphonso Smith) are all gone in less than two years. Here is the current 53 man squad and practice squad roster. As always this is a fluid situation and there are obviously more moves that could be made in the next week leading up to the opener on Monday September 12th against Oakland:

QBs (3)

Kyle Orton

Brady Quinn

Tim Tebow

*I guess Merrill Hoge wasn't right when he said Denver should cut Tebow.

RBs (3)

Knowshon Moreno

Willis McGahee

Lance Ball

*No surprises here with this group.

FB (1)

Spencer Larsen

*Larsen continues to me a one man gang at FB.

WRs (5)

Brandon Lloyd

Eric Decker

Eddie Royal

Matthew Willis

Demaryius Thomas

*I'm shocked that the Broncos announced that Thomas was cleared and ready to practice. That was the downfall for Britt Davis and David Anderson.

Offensive Line (9)

Ryan Clady

Chris Kuper

J.D. Walton

Zane Beadles

Orlando Franklin

Manny Ramirez

Herb Taylor

Chris Clark

Russ Hochstein

*No surprises with this group, but the backup O-Line is really weak and a big dropoff.

TEs (3)

Daniel Fells

Julius Thomas

Virgil Green

*I like Gronkowski, but the upside of Green did him in.

Defensive Linemen (10)

Elvis Dumervil

Robert Ayers

Broderick Bunkley

Kevin Vickerson

Marcus Thomas

Mitch Unrein

Ryan McBean

Jason Hunter

Derrick Harvey

Ty Warren

*I would expect the Broncos to eventually put Warren on season ending IR at some point early in the season. I was kind of surprised that McBean and Hunter survived the cut, but when you look at it the lack of depth on this D-Line kept them around.

LBs (7)

Von Miller

Joe Mays

D.J. Williams

Wesley Woodyard

Nate Irving

Mario Haggan

Mike Mohammed

*Haggan surviving was interesting, but this group looks okay to me. Mohammed will be a special teams guy early on, and Irving might end up starting at MLB in no time.

Cornerbacks (5)

Champ Bailey

Andre Goodman

Cassius Vaughn

Chris Harris

Johnathan Wilhite (Signed on Sunday)

* The big news was the release of Perrish Cox. His play in preseason and his upcoming sexual assault case were too much to keep the former starter around. Chris Harris is the only undrafted rookie to make the 53-man roster.

Safeties (4)

Rahim Moore

Brian Dawkins

David Bruton

Quinton Carter

*Darcel McBath got the cut on Sunday, and the only other surprise was Kyle McCarthy missing out on the list.

Practice Squad

QB Adam Weber

DE Jeremy Beal

S Kyle McCarthy

WR Eron Riley

WR D'Andre Goodwin

T Adam Grant

RB Jeremiah Johnson

FB Austin Sylvester