NFL Week 1 Picks!!!

Yes, it is that time of the year again. The NFL kickoff is right around the corner, and everything starts to get going again. Pregame shows, fantasy football leagues, suicide pools, wall-to-wall coverage of the NFL on television, the radio and the internet, highlight shows, and of course all the action that the NFL delivers. Every Sunday is like Christmas morning from now until the Super Bowl in February. The other exciting aspect of the NFL season starting is of course gambling and betting on all the games. Last year, I had a breakout season with my picks. I finished the regular season 132-118-8. That is not a bad year, but the challenge will be to see if I can keep it up and continue to have success this year. This season will be tough because with the lockout wiping away most of the offseason, how many teams are really prepared for the beginning of the season? How many teams might have lost a step due to the lockout? These first few weeks could be hard to navigate, but I'll try to find my way through it. I'm just glad we are finally talking about Week 1 and picking games! Onto the picks......

Last Season: 132-11-8-

This Season: 0-0

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New Orleans (+4) over GREEN BAY: A thrilling matchup of the past two Super Bowl winning teams to kickoff the 2011 season on Thursday Night. Usually, the defending champions have success in their Thursday Night opener-each Super Bowl winner has won their opener dating back to the 2004 season- but I have a feeling the Saints will be ready to go and pull the mild upset in Lambeau. It should be a fun game, and a wild shootout between Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but take the Saints and the points on the road.

Pittsburgh (+2) over BALTIMORE: What a slugfest right out of the gate to start season on Sunday afternoon. I love this matchup, and these two rivals always produce great drama. Don't be shocked to see the Steelers win a close one on the road. These games are always tight and almost always come down to a few plays in the fourth quarter. The Steelers come up with just one more play yet again to knock off the Ravens in Week 1.

Detroit (+1) over TAMPA BAY: Another road team takes down the home favorite in Week 1. This could be the Lions coming out party. I love them in this matchup. I'm not sold on the Bucs this season, and this is the type of game that Detroit makes a statement. Look for the Lions to win and win convincingly.

Atlanta (-3) over CHICAGO: My fourth road team to win outright this week so far. The Bears are due for a really down year. Atlanta is a solid team, and they will be able to bring offense anywhere they play. This one looks like a marquee game on paper, but it smells like a blowout. The Falcons take care of business methodically at Soldier Field.

Buffalo (+5) over KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have had a terrible run since the day Charlie Weis announced he was leaving to go to the University of Florida. Their preseason was no better than the end of last season. To make matters worse, KC lost starting TE Tony Moeaki for the season in their last preseason game. Matt Cassel also injured his ribs in that game, but he should be able to start. Even if he does start, I still like the Bills to pull the upset. Buffalo played them tough last year in Arrowhead, and actually they should have won the game late. The Chiefs are going nowhere this year, and it starts off with a thud at home. Look for the Bills to come out on top.

HOUSTON (-8) over Indy: I know this is setting up as one of those classic "Obvious Games." Those games look so good on paper, and you think that there is no way a certain team loses this obvious win. Of course, the total opposite happens and you realize that there is no winning in betting. This game has the obvious potential of a Houston rout because of the fact that Peyton Manning won't play barring a miracle. Manning means so much to the Colts that there is no way they can recover for this game. I don't care if Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter or even "Captain Comeback" Jim Harbaugh starts at QB for the Colts, Houston rolls in a laugher.

Philly (-5) over ST.LOUIS: I love the Eagles in this game. Even with all the hype surrounding them, I have a feeling they come out smoking in Week 1. The Rams are a lot better, but everyone is handing them the NFC West, and I'm not so sure about that. Look for the Eagles to bring their "A" game and take out the Rams on the road.

CLEVELAND (-6) over Cincy: The Browns are my sleeper team this year, and I think they get off on the right foot with a win over Cincy. This won't be an easy game for the Browns, but they will do enough to win by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+3) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars are a strange team to pick every week. They have no real name players, yet you look up in early December and they are 7-5 and in prime position for a playoff berth. Then, the roof caves in and they fall apart and miss the playoffs. This year will be different for the Jags, and I think they struggle from day one. The Titans are better than people think, and now that Chris Johnson is signed and ready to go, the Titans will get off to a fast start with a win on the road against their AFC South rivals.

WASHINGTON (+3) over NY Giants: The Giants just completed one of the worst preseasons ever. The Osi Saga started things off, and then they lost popular players like Shaun O'Hara, Steve Smith, and Kevin Boss. The G-Men also took a hit when they lost CB Terrell Thomas to a season-ending knee injury. Prince Amukamara is out for a few months and Marvin Austin and Clint Sintim are both gone for the year. It just seems like a black cloud is hanging over this team right now. On the other hand, the Redskins had a great preseason and looked really good. Rex Grossman gets the starting nod, and Mike Shanahan usually has his teams prepared and ready to go early on. Look for the Skins to bury the Giants in Washington.

ARIZONA (-7) over Carolina: The Kevin Kolb Era vs. The Cam Newton Era! I can see Newton making some big plays with his feet in this game, but he should struggle in his first ever NFL start. This game is tailor made for the Cards to get off on the right foot with a win, and they will pretty decisively.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5) over Seattle: Last year, San Francisco rolled into Seattle in Week 1 and got smoked. That loss set the table for a bad season for the 49ers. This year the tables could be turned. The 49ers will jump all over Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks early, and Jim Harbaugh will notch his first NFL head coaching win.

Minnesota (+8) over SAN DIEGO: The Vikings might not win this game outright, but that spread is way too high. Donovan McNabb has a lot to prove this year, and this could be one of those games that he does just that. How about a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson all day long? The Chargers are shaky early in the season, and they'll probably pull out the win, but this should be closer than people expect.

NY JETS (-4) over Dallas: An entertaining matchup to kickoff Sunday Night Football on NBC. This should be a close game, and the Cowboys might be able to create some problems for the Jets defense, but I can't see the Jets losing their opener at home. The Jets should do just enough to win this game by a touchdown.

New England (-7) over MIAMI: New England struggled to defeat Buffalo a few years ago on the season opener of Monday Night Football. That game sticks in my head when looking at this matchup. It looks like a no-brainer to pick the Pats to win easily, but this game could be tricky. In the end, I'm going to take New England because of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but this could be a close one.

DENVER (-3) over Oakland: The Raiders are probably a better team than Denver right now, but this game seems to favor the Broncos. I am worried about Denver's run defense against the Raiders running attack with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Broncos should be able to unleash Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil all night on Jason Campbell. The Broncos will probably struggle to run the ball effectively early, but if they can get the lead, then they can continue to hammer at it and try to impose their will on the Raiders. This game looks very close on paper, but there are a few key factors that sway me to the Broncos. First, they are opening against the Raiders. Secondly, the Broncos are opening at home for the first time since 2004. Third, they should have the memory of last year's 59-14 debacle fresh in their minds. Fourth, they have a new head coach making his debut. Lastly, they are wearing the orange alternate jerseys! All the signs point to a tight game, with Kyle Orton (Shockingly!) leading the Broncos down the field for a late score and the win. God it is great to have football back.

FINAL SCORE: Denver-24 Oakland-20