Last week's record: 1-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
New Orleans at San Francisco
A Case for the Saints: Do you get the feeling that the Saints are on that run to Super Bowl? I do, and I picked them to make it out of the NFC before the season, and I am not going to abandon them now. Look, I know that the Saints aren't the same team away from the Dome, and they struggled at times on the road this year (Losses at St.Louis and at Tampa Bay), but Drew Brees and that offense are heading to San Francisco this week. It is going to be 65 and sunny. It is not like they are going to Chicago, New York, or even Green Bay this week. This week is tailor made for them to play the way they want to play. Sometimes you just can't go against the team that is hot. The Saints have that look, and they are red hot.
A Case for the 49ers: Jim Harbaugh and the Niners have heard all week about the Saints, and they are going to be really pumped up to prove everyone wrong. The Niners defense is legit, and if anyone is going to slow down the Saints, then it could be them. Great defenses usually shut down a great offense, and this could be a classic case. Throw in the fact that this is the first playoff game for this storied franchise since 2002. The crowd at Candlestick is going to be amped up for this game. Everytime someone doubted the 49ers this year, they responded mightily. The 49ers are almost getting no respect in this game, and that makes a team very dangerous. This might be one of those games where everyone says "Wow, the Niners are a really good team."
The pick: New Orleans (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO: Last year, I over-analyzed the playoffs and tried to be different with my picks, and I should have just gone with the better team. I'm not doing it this time around. The Saints have Drew Brees and the 49ers have Alex Smith. That will be the difference. Take the better team and the better quarterback. The Saints win it and head to the NFC Championship Game.
Final Score: Saints-27 Niners-20
Houston at Baltimore
A Case for the Texans: Their ball-control running game led by Arian Foster can control the game and the time of possession. Plus, they have one of the best play callers in the league in Gary Kubiak. If anyone can get the Ravens guessing, it will be him. The Texans have nothing to lose because last week's win over the Bengals was the cherry on the top of their season. They can play fast and loose, and their defense can definitely match up with the Ravens offense.
A Case for the Ravens: They are at home and rested, and no one has really talked about them so far in the playoffs. It is kind of like everyone forgot that the Ravens are the 2 seed in the AFC, and everyone has been talking about the Patriots, Tebow, and the Steelers collapse last week in Mile High. No one is mentioning the 12-4 Ravens. Plus, they have Ray Rice, and they are hosting their first playoff game in Baltimore since 2006. It is pretty safe to say that their fans will be very loud for this game. Also, that Ravens defense gets to tee off on T.J. Yates all game long.
The pick: BALTIMORE (-7) over Houston: I can see this game being close for a while, but Ray Rice and that Ravens defense will be the difference. This game looks so obvious on paper, but don't get cute here. Take the Ravens laying a touchdown. The Ravens will take care of business at home and advance to the AFC Title Game.
Final Score: Ravens-27 Houston-10
New York Giants at Green Bay
A Case for the Giants: Their defense is playing great at the right time. Their pass rush is down right nasty, and they only have to rush four in certain situations to get to the quarterback. They played well enough to beat the Packers a month ago, and sometimes you can learn enough from a loss to help you win the next time two teams play. Plus, Eli Manning is playing at an elite level right now, and he will not be skittish on the road in Lambeau. The Giants are also looking like they are on one of those magical runs like they got going in 2007.
A Case for the Packers: They are the better team, and they are sick and tired of hearing about the Giants and their pass rush all week long. The Giants had problems covering the Packers receivers in their first meeting, and Aaron Rodgers will find the matchup he likes and exploit it all game long. Everyone rips apart the Packers defense, but they just need to get the stops when it counts. I think they can get those stops in this game. The Packers are healthy, rested, and ready to make the Super Bowl run.
The pick: GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Giants: The Giants have a legitimate shot to win this game because of their pass rush and Eli Manning. As much as I would love to see an upset here, I have to go with my head. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers will be just too much for the G-Men. This game will be close for a while, but look for the Pack to put it away with a late touchdown and move on to the NFC Championship.
Final Score: Green Bay-31 Giants-21
And now.........Broncos at Patriots.......AFC Divisional Playoff........Saturday Night in Foxboro.....
A Case for the Broncos: Tim Tebow's magical run just might continue. After last week's win over the Steelers, the Broncos are playing the ultimate "House Money" game. Tebow cemented his status in Denver after last week's performance, and they can play fast and loose in this game. The pressure is on the Patriots this week, and not the Broncos. Once again, Denver finds themselves as huge underdogs and NO ONE is picking them to win this game or even keep it close. They can take chances, and if you watched the game they played against the Pats in December, they moved the ball at will for a large chunk of the game. The Broncos were dominating the Pats defense when they built that 16-7, and three Denver fumbles completely turned the game. If the Broncos don't turn it over, then they should be able to run the ball and keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hand.
A Case for the Patriots: The Broncos couldn't stop Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski last time, so how the hell are they going to stop them this time? Those tight ends are a matchup nightmare for Denver, and Brady should be able to exploit those matchups all night. The Pats will find a way to slow down Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller to give Brady time. Plus, the Pats ran the ball at will when they spread out the Broncos defense. Look for them to give the Broncos fits with those type of runs on a cold and windy night. Also, Bill Belichick is not going to play Tebow the way that the Steelers and Dick Lebeau did. They are not going to leave Demaryius Thomas alone on the outside, and they will come up with a plan to take him away.
The pick: NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Denver: As much as I want to pick Denver in the upset, I just can't see it happening. I didn't think that Denver was going to beat the Steelers, but by gametime I had a feeling that the Broncos would keep it closer than expected. I don't get that feeling this time. I don't see Brady and Belichick losing four straight playoff games together, and I can't see them losing their third playoff game in a row at home. The Pats get their first playoff win since the 2007 AFC Championship Game.
Final Score: Patriots-38 Denver-20
One final thought on the game........This has been just an amazing season for the Broncos. Whatever happens on Saturday Night will not take away what we saw this season. Everything was capped off with last Sunday's win over the Steelers. Could there be some Tebow Magic in this game? Sure. Could the breaks and bounces go the Broncos way? Absolutely. It will be a tall order, but like I said last week: At least I get to see this all play out this weekend. It has been a fun ride, and maybe-just maybe-Tim Tebow and the Broncos have one more rabbit to pull out of the hat. If they do, it will be one of the greatest upsets in the NFL history. Let's hope something strange go does in Foxboro on Saturday Night, and Tebow gets a chance at the end. At least I get a chance to see it one more time. GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!!!
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