With the NFC out of the way, here are the 2012 AFC predictions...
AFC East
1) New England Patriots
What I Like: Yes, it is very easy to pick the Pats to win the AFC East every year, but there are a few reasons for that. Those reasons are Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. As long as Brady and Belichick are together, then this team will be in contention. The Patriots really reloaded this offseason. They added WR Brandon Lloyd to a deep receiving crew. They drafted two difference makers on defense: Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower. The Patriots might be better than last year's 13-3 team that fell short in the Super Bowl. Plus, they are head and shoulders above everyone else in their division, and their schedule is very favorable. They play the lowly NFC West (San Francisco at home) and the AFC South. They finish with three out of four at home, and their lone road game in that stretch is at Jacksonville. The Patriots will definitely be a factor come January, and they will make their ninth playoff appearance in 10 years.
What I Don't Like: Their offensive line is in a tone of trouble right now. It may get fixed early in the season, but there are question marks all over the board for them upfront. Logan Mankins is recovering from a knee injury, Brian Waters hasn't reported to camp yet, and Sebastian Vollmer is out with an injury. The Pats need a solution to line problem or Tom Brady is in big trouble this season. Their other concern has to be in their secondary. They really need better play from everyone in that unit, and if the secondary doesn't hold up, then they are going to give up a lot of plays again.
Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC East.
2) Buffalo Bills
What I Like: You have to love the Bills defensive line. Adding Mario Williams was a potentially franchise-altering move. Their defensive line now consists of Williams, Marcell Dareus, a healthy Kyle Williams, and Mark Anderson. The Bills are going to get after it up front. The other strength of this team is the secondary. Buffalo added Stephon Gilmore in the draft at CB. Gilmore joins the likes of Aaron Williams, Jairus Byrd, and George Wilson. Also, don't be surprised if fourth round pick Ron Brooks out of LSU gets himself some playing time. Offensively, the Bills were able to resign Stevie Johnson and pair him with TE Scott Chandler, WR David Nelson, and WR Donald Jones. Fred Jackson returns healthy, and C.J. Spiller might have finally found his role in their offense. The Bills have weapons on offense. There was a reason why they started 5-2 last year. If QB Ryan Fitzpatrick plays the way he did during the first half of last season, they this offense will generate a lot of points. The Bills have the right formula set up for them to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
What I Don't Like: Can the Bills stop the run? This has been a weakness for them for the last few seasons. If they can't stop the run again, then they are in trouble. Another weakness for them has been offensive line. There are still some question marks on the line, and the tackle spots are a concern. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs all the help he can get, and if the line is shaky, then Fitzpatrick will have some trouble being consistent. Another factor that I worry about for them is how they faded down the stretch last year. Are the Bills going to be the team that started 5-2? Are they going to be the team that finished 1-8? Can they sustain success and build on it all year long? Those are very important questions that will face this team at some point this season.
Prediction 9-7 and a Wild Card berth
3) New York Jets
What I Like: The Jets will be competitive and in the playoff hunt all season because of their defense. They have Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, David Harris, Sione Pouha, and Calvin Pace to lead the way. It looks like there is plenty of potential in young guys like Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples. Also, they definitely upgraded their secondary with the additions of Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry. Rex Ryan will get that defense to play well week in and week out. Their schedule is also very favorable. Not only to they get the chance to lineup against the AFC South and the NFC West, but take a look a this favorable scheduling quirk: The Jets don't have to travel from September 23rd to October 21st. They head to Miami on the 9/23, and they have three straight home games before they travel to New England on 10/21. Plus, their next next two weeks involve a home game against Miami and a bye week. From September 23rd through November 11th, the Jets only have to hit the road twice in that span.
What I Don't Like: The offense is the spot where you get nervous if your a Jet fan. Two years ago, they went to the AFC Championship Game with this group of receivers: Dustin Keller, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jericho Cotchery. This year the group features Keller, Holmes, Chaz Schillens, Jeremy Kerley, and rookie Stephen Hill. That doesn't exactly scare too many defensive coordinators. Tim Tebow's presence might be felt eary on, but you have to wonder how long his "Wildcat" package will work or catch people by surprise. If your offense gets rhythm going early in the game, why would you change it up and bring Tebow to run zone read plays? It doesn't make any sense. Mark Sanchez has had to deal with the Tebow circus all summer, and it is hard to believe that it will not affect him once the season starts. The Tebow/Sanchez debate could really become a negative factor for this team. Also, their right tackle position has looked very shaky in preseason, and Wayne Hunter lost his job to Austin Howard, and the team traded Hunter to the Rams for Jason Smith. Smith has been a bust since he was taken number two overall in 2009. That spot could get Sanchez killed this season. They have to find a way to protect their quarterback, and it looks like they are really going to struggle on offense because of that suspect line play. They didn't close the gap on the Patriots, and they probably didn't get better than the Bills this offseason too. The Jets will be in the wild card mix all year long, but there are too many questions marks on offense that will hinder their chances of making the playoffs in 2012.
Prediction: 8-8 and third in the AFC East
4) Miami Dolphins
What I Like: After watching HBO's "Hard Knocks," I've decided that I have taken a liking to new head coach Joe Philbin. He has a calm demeanor, and he has grown on me as the head man of the new Dolphins program. I really think that down the road he will have a positive influence on this football team. After they started 0-7, they finished the season on a 6-3 run. Two of those threes losses were by a combined four points on the road against Dallas and New England. Their defense is going to be their strength, and they do have a stud pass rusher in Cameron Wake. Reggie Bush finally seemed to get it, and he could surpass his 1,086 yard and six touchdown performance this season. Plus, the Dolphins have been counted out the entire offseason, and nobody thinks they are going to be any good this fall. They could use that as motivation.
What I Don't Like: The Fish will start rookie QB Ryan Tannehill right out of the gate in Week 1. Tannehill went 8th overall in the draft, and many people felt that was drafted too high. Some people felt that QBs like Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson were better prospects than Tannehill. Obviously, the Dolphins had to grab a quarterback, and after striking out in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, they overvalued Tannehill and selected early. The writing is on the wall that Tannehill will struggle mightily this season. Plus, he wasn't given a great crew of receivers to work with. The Dolphins also play in the ultra-competitive AFC East, so getting out of their division will be very tough. All signs point to another down year for Miami.
Prediction: 5-11 and last in the AFC East
AFC North
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
What I Like: When you have Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger as your QB-Coach combination, then you are going to be good more times than not. If you don't think Big Ben is an elite QB, then watch the playoff loss at Denver last year. On one leg, Roethlisberger willed his team back into that game, and almost singlehandedly won it himself. After a long holdout, it looks like Mike Wallace will be back for the season opener. I know they are getting older on defense, but they still have LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu. Although they lost new OG David DeCastro for most of the season due to a knee injury, the Steelers have always found a way to make it work with a patchwork offensive line. A lot of experts are picking the Ravens to win the division, and I think many people are doubting the Steelers. At the end of every season, Pittsburgh always seems to be in the mix, and this year will be no different. Look for the Steelers to win the division once again.
What I Don't Like: The Ravens are probably the better team right now. The schedule makers certainly did not do them any favors. Here are their first four games: at Denver, home against the Jets, at Oakland, and home against Philly. Then, they travel to Tennessee and Cincy. After that slate, they host Washington, travel to take on the Giants, and host KC and Baltimore. That is a tough stretch of games in the first half of the season. Also, is their line going to hold up and protect Big Ben? Who is going to carry the load with Rashard Mendenhall coming back from knee surgery? Those are going to be big questions heading into the season.
Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC North
2) Baltimore Ravens
What I Like: This is a team that was so close to going to the Super Bowl last year. Courtney Upshaw fell into their lap in round 2 of the draft, and they return most of their key pieces from last season. Joe Flacco looks like he is ready to make the leap, and as long as Ray Lewis is around that defense will be stout. Four out of their first six games are at home. On paper, the Ravens look like the team to beat in the AFC.
What I Don't Like: Sometimes, you just get a feeling that a team is heading for a down year. This Ravens team feels like that team for me. A lot of experts have them penciled in as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and they have made the playoffs the last four seasons. It just seems that they are due for a year where everything goes wrong. It started with the injury to Terrell Suggs in the offseason, and I just have a feeling that the Ravens are going to disappoint this year. You really can't explain it, but my gut tells me that Baltimore will take a step back this year and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007.
Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC North
3) Cincinnati Bengals
What I Like: Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have the potential to be a brilliant combination for the future. Making the playoffs last year was a huge step for this young team, and they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They added Dre Kirkpatrick in the draft, and he is slated to contribute heavily right away. Overall, their draft was really solid and they replaced Cedric Benson with Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Their defense is a solid, underrated group, and the early part of their schedule features two games against Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Jacksonville. They could very easily be 5-1 heading into Week 7.
What I Don't Like: Let's be honest: This is the Bengals were are talking about. I just find it very hard to believe that they will duplicate what they did in 2011. Andy Dalton overachieved last year, and you would he might take a step back this season. They still have to deal with the Ravens and the Steelers four times combined. The back end of their schedule is really tough. They play the entire AFC West, the Giants, Dallas, Philly and Baltimore all in November and December. I just don't see the Bengals surviving that and making another playoff run.
Prediction: 7-9 and third place in the AFC North
4) Cleveland Browns
What I Like: They got the QB-RB combination that they wanted in the draft, and they already planted Brandon Weeden as their starting quarterback. Weeden was considered the second best NFL ready passer in the draft. It would not surprise me if he comes in and plays really well early on. Trent Richardson could be a real difference maker in the backfield, and you know you will get big plays out of Josh Cribbs.
What I Don't Like: Richardson already got his knee scoped during training camp, and it is a question mark to start the season healthy. I wasn't impressed at all by head coach Pat Shurmur last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get to year three of his regime. They are so far behind the other teams in their division, so it is hard to see how they are going to be competitive this year. Plus, they just went through an ownership change, so the entire front office, coaches, and players are on egg shells. The Browns will struggle once again in 2012.
Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the AFC North.
AFC South
1) Tennessee Titans
What I Like: It starts at the top. I was impressed with Mike Munchak last season in his first year as a head coach. He gets it, and he has the Titans on the right track. Don't forget this team went 9-7 last year and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Chris Johnson should be able to have a bounce back season. Look for him to return to form this season. Kendall Wright has looked good in preseason, and he could be the explosive receiver that this team desperately needs. Defensively, the Titans are solid all around, and they are going to play a style that suits a young quarterback. Play good defense, run the ball with Johnson, control the clock, and don't make mistakes and turn the ball over. Some teams get overlooked completely, and everyone has handed the division crown to the Texans. Watch out for the Titans, and they will sneak up on Houston and steal this division.
What I Don't Like: The Titans got ripped for reaching for Jake Locker at number eight overall in the 2011 Draft. Now, Locker gets his chance to start. Is there a chance that Locker struggles and this team falls flat? Of course there is that chance, so the Titans better hope that Locker can get through the ups and downs of his first year starting. Also, their division is much improved. The Texans are good, and the Colts will be better. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North, two divisions that are loaded with quality teams. Their first four games are really tough: home against New England, at San Diego, home against Detroit, and at Houston. The first four games could really set the Titans back.
Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the AFC South
2) Houston Texans
What I Like: The Texans look like a team poised to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They are the trendy pick for a reason. Houston has boatloads of talent, and now they get Matt Schaub healthy again. Their defense should be improved again under Wade Phillips. You know Arian Foster is going to be their workhorse on offense, and there aren't too many holes on this roster. They could get off to a fast start because in their first four games they get to play Miami and Tennessee at home and travel to Jacksonville in three of those games.
What I Don't Like: There are always teams that get all the hype in the offseason, then they fail to live up expectations. I already feel that the Ravens could be one of those teams that looks great on paper but ultimately disappoints. The Texans are going to be the second surprise, disappointing team of 2012. I just have a feeling on this one. As a Broncos fan, I had admiration for Gary Kubiak, but I'm not totally sold on him as a big-time NFL head coach. Sometimes, you get the breaks in a season, and sometimes you don't get the breaks. This season, the Texans won't get the breaks, and they will miss the playoffs in 2012.
Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the AFC South
3) Indianapolis Colts
What I Like: If you evaluated all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, regardless of experience, wouldn't you put Andrew Luck in the top 16 right now? Luck is going to be the real deal, and he will automatically make the Colts offense a lot better this year. With the success that a lot of young quarterbacks have had in the league recently, there is no doubt that Luck should be able to be very productive this year. They still have Reggie Wayne, and they added Luck's buddy Cody Fleener in the draft. You can't get any worse then this team was last year. The only way for them to go is up. New head coach Chuck Pagano will need time to revamp their defense, but they still have Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts will be much improved and they will surprise a lot of people this season.
What I Don't Like: The Colts will feel the growing pains of having a first time head coach and a rookie quarterback. As great as Luck is, he will have to deal with some rough waters as the season progresses. You have to wonder about their offensive line play, and their secondary is a big question mark. They have to deal with the AFC East and the NFC North, and they are clearly behind Tennessee and Houston in their division.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the AFC South
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
What I Like: No one thinks the Jaguars are going to be any good this year, and they could use that as motivation and sneak up on some teams. New owner Shad Kahn might be able to revive this franchise a little bit. If Justin Blackmon gets his head on straight, then he looks like he can be a major weapon in this league right away. Maurice Jones-Drew is still their best player, provided he ends his holdout, and their defense is underrated. Their first four games aren't brutal: at Minnesota, home vs. Houston, at Indy, and home to Cincy. Blaine Gabbert can't play any worse than he did as a rookie last year, so you should see some improvement in the QB spot.
What I Don't Like: The MJD holdout can't be a good omen for them. Even if he comes back in time for the season, those long holdouts always seem to end up in some sort of hamstring or groin injury. Although Gabbert looked much improved in preseason, we said the same thing about Colt McCoy during the preseason last year. Look how that turned out. I'm not sold on Gabbert being the answer, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets benched in favor of Chad Henne at some point. For a team with little hype going into the season, there really isn't too much to hang your hat on. Mike Mularkey was a really good offensive coordinator, but the jury is still out on his head coaching ability. Look for the Jaguars to struggle mightily this year, and they could be on the clock for the 2013 Draft very early in 2012.
Prediction: 2-14 and last place in the AFC South
AFC West
1) San Diego Chargers
What I Like: You have to expect Philip Rivers to play at a high level all season long this year. He had some ups and downs last year, but Rivers is a big-time player, and he will carry this offense all year long. Although Ryan Matthews suffered an injury early in the preseason, he should be a big weapon in the run game. They lost Vincent Jackson to free agency and Vincent Brown was injured in their second preseason game, but they added Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal in free agency. Those two should help complement a passing game that features Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd. The addition of Jarret Johnson in free agency and Melvin Ingram in the draft should be able to bolster their defense and pass rush. Ingram could be a real impact rookie. This roster might not have the talent that it had three years ago, but it is still a good team. The Chargers know that this is a do or die year for HC Norv Turner, and I think they respond with a big season and another AFC West title.
What I Don't Like: Is their offensive line going to hold up? They lost their best lineman, OG Kris Dielman, to retirement, and they are banking on Jared Gaither at LT. If they have problems on offense, it will be a result of a leaky offensive line. Their front seven is young and unproven at spots. Can Shaun Phillips sustain his high level of play? What will they get out of LB Takeo Spikes? They have to face off against the AFC North and NFC South. As much as I like the Chargers, the pressure will be on them all season long, and if they falter at any point, everyone is going to be calling for Turner to be fired.
Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC West
2) Denver Broncos
What I Like: When you add a quarterback like Peyton Manning, you entire organization gets better the moment he enters the building. If Manning is healthy, then this Broncos offense will be very difficult to stop. I'm sure he will be rusty and it will take some time for him to adjust to his receivers, but after watching Manning in preseason, I have no doubt they he will play at a really high level this year. He might not be 100%, but if he is at 90%, then he is still better than most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. I love the fact that so many experts have predicted an 8-8 type of season from Denver. That plays right into their hands. You have to love the additions of Tight Ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen. Young receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker should flourish with Manning at the helm. The Broncos want to be balanced, and Willis McGahee will give them that in the run game. Look for RB Ronnie Hillman to play a major role on 3rd down in this offense too. With Manning at QB, the Broncos can get an early lead on offense and help out their defense tremendously. With a lead, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller can tee off on opposing quarterbacks. Also, don't forget about Champ Bailey and a rebuilt secondary with the additions of CBs Tracy Porter and Drayton Florence and Safety Mike Adams. John Fox is a very solid head coach, and the addition of Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator should help the defense continue to improve. Overall, the Broncos got a once in a lifetime opportunity to get Peyton Manning, and he should be able to get this Broncos team back into the playoffs once again.
What I Don't Like: Of course you have to be concerned about Manning's health all year. They lost OG Chris Kuper to an injured forearm, and he will miss at least the first three games of the year. Their best inside linebacker, D.J. Williams, will be suspended for the first six games of the season. Losing DT Broderick Bunkley to free agency will really hurt their front seven. How will that group hold up against the run all year long? Their schedule is absolutely brutal. Here are their first six games: home against Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, home against Houston and Oakland, at New England, and at San Diego. They is a really tough slate to start the season. Their depth is really a concern, and it will be hard for them to compete for a playoff berth if they suffer a lot injuries during the year.
Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth
3) Kansas City Chiefs
What I Like: They got rid of Todd Haley, so their overall team leadership should be a lot better. They get three key players who missed basically all of last season: Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry. Their roster is loaded with a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. You know that new head coach Romeo Crennel will put together a solid defensive game plan every week. The additions of OT Eric Winston and RB Peyton Hillis should definitely help out their offense. In addition to Berry, they have impact players like Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Brandon Flowers on their defense. Did I mention that this team has a ton of talent?
What I Don't Like: The two most important pieces for a team to be successful are the coach and the quarterback. The Chiefs have major question marks surrounding those two spots. Crennel has proven to be a great defensive coordinator, but he was a terrible head coach in Cleveland. Maybe his second turn as a head coach will be different, but I'm not sold on him yet. Matt Cassel struggled a lot last year, and I'm not convinced that he is going to be the guy to lead this team to the playoffs. They added Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, but did you see Daboll's offensive units in Cleveland and Miami? They were pretty bad. Their schedule is very tough. Their first give games include home games against Atlanta, San Diego, and Baltimore and road games at Buffalo and New Orleans. They have to head to San Diego and Pittsburgh back-to-back weeks in November, and they finish with three out of their last four games on the road. The Chiefs will be competitive and in the playoff mix for most of the year, but I think they fall short in the end.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the AFC West
4) Oakland Raiders
What I Like: New head coach Dennis Allen will bring a new attitude to Oakland. Allen could be a star as a head coach very soon. Carson Palmer should benefit from being with them for a full season. They have weapons at receiver with Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford. If Darren McFadden stays healthy, he could easily win the rushing title. Their defense was so bad last year, so Allen should be able to help that unit out immediately. Guys like Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston, Tyvon Branch, and Rolando McClain should all help this defense improve from their performance in 2011. This team is not afraid of the other teams in their division. They won all three road games in their division last year.
What I Don't Like: Palmer struggled at times last year, and you have to wonder if he is past his prime. They didn't add any real impact players in free agency, and they didn't draft until the third round this past April. The Raiders are always undisciplined, so you constantly have to worry about them shooting themselves in the foot week-to-week. Also, they are going through an organizational transformation with the death of Al Davis and new GM Reggie McKenzie. It is going to take some time for them to rebuild their entire program. They will be tough to beat every week, but they might be a year away.
Prediction: 7-9 and last in the AFC West.
*Quick Review*
AFC East
1) New England (11-5)
2) Buffalo (9-7) Wild Card
3) NY Jets (8-8)
4) Miami (5-11)
AFC North
1) Pittsburgh (11-5)
2) Baltimore (8-8)
3) Cincy (7-9)
4) Cleveland (5-11)
AFC South
1) Tennessee (9-7)
2) Houston (8-8)
3) Indy (8-8)
4) Jacksonville (2-14)
AFC West
1) San Diego (10-6)
2) Denver (10-6) Wild Card
3) Kansas City (8-8)
4) Oakland (7-9)
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(3) San Diego over (6) Buffalo (The Chargers win their first playoff game since 2008)
(5) Denver over (4) Tennessee (Manning returns to Tennessee and sticks it to the Titans once again)
Divisional Round
(1) New England over (5) Denver (Brady and Manning meet up once again the playoffs, and the Pats hold them off in a classic shootout)
(2) Pittsburgh over (3) San Diego (The Steelers head back to the AFC Championship Game for the second time in three years)
AFC Championship
(1) New England over (2) Pittsburgh (The Pats get to their second straight Super Bowl, and their sixth in the Brady-Belichick Era)
SUPER BOWL XLVII
New England over Green Bay (If the NFL can't get a Manning Bowl in New Orleans, they will settle for the next best thing: Pats-Packers. Brady and Belichick get their elusive fourth ring together)
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
2012 NFL Predictions Part 1- NFC
There is nothing better than getting ready for another NFL season. As summer winds down, it is time to look ahead to 2012 and start thinking about what is going to happen this upcoming year in the NFL. It is so much fun to make predictions because the NFL is so unpredictable. Teams that look so good in the preseason fail to live up to expectations, and teams that you don't think will be a factor rise up and surprise. That is what makes the NFL great, and it is what makes predicting the season so challenging.
When you are making NFL predictions for the year, you have to combine a few factors in your decision process. The factors include:
1) Traditionally, the NFL averages at least six teams that made the playoffs the year before to miss the playoffs that upcoming season. Any expert or analyst that has eight or nine teams making return trips to the playoffs is going to be wrong. Don't even take their predictions seriously because it won't break that way. As a result, I swapped out six playoff teams from last year with six teams that didn't make the playoffs.
2) There is always at least one team that makes the playoffs that lost 10 or more games the year before. This team is called the "Sleeper" team (Recent Example: The 2011 Bengals made the playoffs after winning only four games in 2010.)
3) At least one team that looks like a lock on paper to make the playoffs will disappoint and have a down season and miss the playoffs. Sometimes it looks impossible but it happens every year. (Example: The 2009 New York Giants.)
4) There are 32 teams each playing 16 games. If you multiply those two numbers, then you get 512. Every team wins and loses each game, so you divide that number in half and get 256. When you are predicting every team's record, all the wins should add up to 256 and all the losses to add up to 256. The won-loss record for each team should add up to 256-256. Any writer or analyst who fails to do this simple math is completely lost, and their predictions are worthless (Recent Example: Every year on ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning show.)
I've broken down the predictions in two parts. First up is the NFC, and the second part will feature the AFC. Also, I included what I like about each team, and what I don't like about each team because every team in the league has plenty of positives and negatives that could affect their season completely. Let's kick it off with the NFC......
When you are making NFL predictions for the year, you have to combine a few factors in your decision process. The factors include:
1) Traditionally, the NFL averages at least six teams that made the playoffs the year before to miss the playoffs that upcoming season. Any expert or analyst that has eight or nine teams making return trips to the playoffs is going to be wrong. Don't even take their predictions seriously because it won't break that way. As a result, I swapped out six playoff teams from last year with six teams that didn't make the playoffs.
2) There is always at least one team that makes the playoffs that lost 10 or more games the year before. This team is called the "Sleeper" team (Recent Example: The 2011 Bengals made the playoffs after winning only four games in 2010.)
3) At least one team that looks like a lock on paper to make the playoffs will disappoint and have a down season and miss the playoffs. Sometimes it looks impossible but it happens every year. (Example: The 2009 New York Giants.)
4) There are 32 teams each playing 16 games. If you multiply those two numbers, then you get 512. Every team wins and loses each game, so you divide that number in half and get 256. When you are predicting every team's record, all the wins should add up to 256 and all the losses to add up to 256. The won-loss record for each team should add up to 256-256. Any writer or analyst who fails to do this simple math is completely lost, and their predictions are worthless (Recent Example: Every year on ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning show.)
I've broken down the predictions in two parts. First up is the NFC, and the second part will feature the AFC. Also, I included what I like about each team, and what I don't like about each team because every team in the league has plenty of positives and negatives that could affect their season completely. Let's kick it off with the NFC......
NFC East
1) Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: Say what you want about Tony Romo, but he is a
top 10 QB in the NFL. This is the time for him and the rest of that Cowboys
offense. They still have the dangerous trio of Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and
Miles Austin. Although those three are banged up, they should be okay for most of the season.Throw in the emergence of running back DeMarco Murray, and the
Cowboys should be able to put points on the board quite frequently. You have to
love the additions at cornerback. Adding a player like Brandon Carr in free
agency and moving up to get Morris Claiborne in the draft were two huge moves
for their secondary. Dallas is coming off two disappointing seasons, but they still have some of the best overall talent in the league. This just feels
like the year that the Cowboys put it all together and win the NFC East.
What I Don’t Like: Their offensive line is still a question
mark, and you have to wonder about a player like Dez Bryant staying out of
trouble and focusing on football. Jason Garrett was widely criticized last year,
and you wonder if he is the guy who can run the ship in Big D. Also, Rob Ryan
gets a lot of press, but he really needs to step up last year. He did a
horrible job coaching up that defense. Their schedule is pretty tough
considering they have to play the AFC North and the NFC South. Plus, their own
division is always brutal to handle.
Prediction: 11-5 and NFC East Champs
What I Like: Last year was an absolute nightmare for the
Eagles. They were able to win their last four games and finish at 8-8, so you
would think that they would be able to ride that momentum this year. Pound for
pound Philly has one of the most talented rosters in the entire NFL. Michael
Vick, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Brent Celek are at the top of the lists
as far as playmakers go at their respective positions. The addition of DeMeco
Ryans on defense should pay dividends for their linebacking corps, and they
spent their first three draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. There is
no way that this team with this kind of talent will fail to reach their
potential this year. You can just tell that this will be a team on a mission
this season.
What I Don’t Like: Their offensive line still needs to prove
itself. The loss of OT Jason Peters to injury in March could be a real blow to
the team. I know this is beating a dead horse, but Michael Vick needs to prove
that he can stay healthy. If he misses time again, then the Eagles are in
trouble. Their safeties don’t scare me on defense, and I’m still not sold on
Juan Castillo running that unit. As far as their schedule is concerned, they
have to travel to all three NFC East rivals during the second half of the
season.
Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth.
What I Like: The Giants have three things that you need to
win the NFL: A great head coach, a great quarterback, and a dominating pass
rush. Can you really doubt Eli Manning anymore? I don’t think so. With Hakeem
Nicks and Victor Cruz at his disposal, Manning should continue his stellar play
in 2012. Plus, Martellus Bennett might be a real upgrade at the TE position.
Jason Pierre-Paul is quickly becoming one of the most electrifying pass rushers
in the NFL. The Giants defense can overcome a lot of their deficiencies with
JPP, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora attacking the quarterback. You also have
confidence that no matter what happens during the season, Tom Coughlin will
right the ship and get the Giants playing good ball at the right time.
What I Don’t Like: You always worry about a Super Bowl
hangover. The Giants are attempting to become the first Super Bowl winner to
win a playoff game the next year since the 2005 Patriots. Also, the G-Men have
a really brutal schedule. In addition to the NFC East, they have to play the
AFC North, NFC South, Green Bay, and travel to San Francisco. It really is a
“Murderers Row” type of slate. Their secondary is a little worrisome too, they are dealing with injuries again in that area, and
they have a lot of top quarterbacks to deal with on that schedule.
Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth.
4) Washington Redskins
What I Like: Mike Shanahan has missed the playoffs the last
five years he was a head coach in the NFL. He missed the playoffs the last
three years in Denver and the first two in Washington. It is hard to believe
that Shanny will miss the playoffs once again. Robert Griffin III might be one
of the most exciting QBs in the league by the end of the year. You can tell
that RG III is going to be pretty good right away. The Redskins added Pierre
Garcon to their receiving group to go along with Santana Moss, Anthony
Armstrong and TE Fred Davis. It doesn’t matter who Shanahan plugs back there at
running back because he always gets production out of a committee of guys.
Defensively, you have to like the pass rush of Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo
on the edges. This team will be very competitive all season long.
What I Don’t Like: For all the positives that go along with
RG III, he still is a rookie. Defenses are a lot better and a lot quicker than
the ones that he faced in the Big 12. It seems that every year the Redskins
have question marks on the offensive line, and this year is no different. Plus,
their secondary seems very shaky to me. Are you sold on Brandon Merriweather
and Tanard Jackson at safety? I’m certainly not. Their last seven weeks are
very difficult. They play Philly twice, Dallas twice, the Giants, and the
Ravens in six of those last seven games. The Skins might be one year away from cracking through to the
playoffs.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC East.
NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
What I Like: When you talk about
the Packers, you have to start with Aaron Rodgers. He might not be able to put
up the numbers he did last year, but he is the best QB in the NFL right now,
and he will keep the Packers offense moving all year long. The Packers have
so much stability in their receiving corps, and it is hard to see their level
of play diminish this season. Their defense can only get better from a
disappointing season in 2011. They spent the bulk of their draft on defense,
and there are too many playmakers on that side of the ball for them not to
improve. I like their schedule because they should feast on the AFC South and
the NFC West. The Packers were 15-1 last year and at times they looked
unstoppable. The playoff loss to the Giants will serve as a motivation for them
to continue their winning ways, and this team has something to prove this year.
They won’t win 15 games again, but they will be a force to be reckoned with and
a serious Super Bowl contender.
What I Don’t Like: Who is going to
step up and be the man at LT? If Marshall Newhouse doesn’t pan out, then the
Packers might have trouble protecting Rodgers consistently. They are also
banking on two rookies, Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy, to come in and help their defense
immediately. They might be too much to ask. Their division is very tough, and
they’ve got to deal with Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford four times throughout
the year.
Prediction 11-5 and NFC North
Champs
What I Like: If Jay Cutler didn't
get hurt last year, then the Bears had a legitimate chance to make the Super
Bowl. Cutler is back this year, and the Bears added Brandon Marshall in the
offseason. We know how successful Cutler and Marshall were in Denver
together-Thanks again Josh McDaniels- and the Bears finally got the big
receiver they have been craving for. You have to like the addition of
Jeremy Bates to the coaching staff. Bates was the offensive coordinator in
Denver in 2008, and he knows how to get big time production from both Cutler
and Marshall. The Bears were able to resign Matt Forte, and the trio of Forte,
Marshall and Cutler could be one of the best in the league. You know Lovie
Smith is going to put together a solid defense, and Julius Peppers is still a dominating
player as an edge rusher.
What I Don’t Like: With all the
talk about how great it is that Cutler and Marshall are back together, you
realize that they never made the playoffs once in Denver in the three years
they were there. As great of a player that Marshall is, you still can’t trust
him off the field or in the locker room. I’m not buying all these stories about
the maturity of Brandon Marshall. The guy is a flake, and this dream scenario
could be a nightmare if he isn’t getting the ball enough or the offense
sputters at some point. That offensive line is still a work in progress as
well. The thing that really worries me is health of Brain Urlacher. If Urlacher
isn’t full go, and Lance Briggs shows his age, then the Bears could be in real
trouble defensively. Also, the Bears have become the trendy pick to unseat the
Packers in the NFC North, and a lot of people have predicted a possible Super
Bowl berth. I’m not totally sold on them, and I still don’t think they have
enough to take over the Packers in that division. The Bears will be good but
not good enough to make the playoffs in a tough NFC.
Prediction: 9-7 and second place
in the NFC North.
What I Like: They have the best,
young QB-WR combination in the league with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
Stafford is on the cusp of becoming one of the elite QBs in the NFL, and
Johnson is flat out dominating at the receiver spot. It looked like a video
game with them at times last season. The Lions have young talent in so many spots
on offense. Their pass rush is really good, and Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, and
Kyle Vanden Bosch can certainly get after the quarterback. As far as rosters
go, the young talent that the Lions have puts them near the top of the list at
many key positions. The fact that they play the NFC West and the AFC South this
year should get them a boatload of wins right of the bat.
What I Don’t Like: You can’t be
happy with the type of offseason the Lions went through. They had so many
arrests and off the field problems. It got so bad that they cut starting CB Aaron
Berry because of his multiple arrests. The Lions didn’t handle success very well last year once they
started winning, and it seems as if that attitude has carried over to this
year. Jim Schwartz did a nice job turning the franchise around, but even he has
handled some of the success the wrong way. I’m not totally buying in on him
becoming a big-time NFL head coach. The Lions have the talent to make the
playoffs again, but there seems to be a lack of maturity with this group. I
think the Lions take a step back this season, and miss the playoffs. It might
be the best thing that happens to this franchise.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in
the NFC North.
4) Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: Hey, the Vikings got a new stadium approved, and it will ensure them that they will be staying in Minnesota! That might be the best news to come out of 2012 for the Vikings. On the field, Christian Ponder did show some flashes of brilliance in his rookie season. Adrian Peterson is on schedule to return from ACL surgery, and they made the right move by drafting Matt Kalil at number four overall in the April's draft. Jared Allen had a great season in 2011, and he is still playing at a high level. Everyone is talking about the Packers, Bears, and Lions, and the Vikings are just sitting their waiting in the wings. Perhaps they are the sleeper team that no one sees coming in 2012.
What I Don't Like: Ponder looks like a nice player, but I don't think he will become an elite quarterback. Their defense has to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford six times during the season. That is a lot to ask out of a defense. Peterson is on track to come back, but how effective will he be after tearing up his knee in Week 16 last season? Everyone wanted Brad Childress out and Leslie Frazier in as head coach a few years ago. Is Frazer really an upgrade? He might be out the door if the Vikings have another bad season. There is just not enough talent to compete with the other teams in this division. It could be another long year for Vikings fans, and I don't see Minnesota having a great season.
Prediction: 4-12 and last in the NFC North.
NFC South
1) Carolina Panthers
What I Like: I was very skeptical when Cam Newton entered the league last year, but I was dead wrong. Newton is dynamic, and he made some throws last year that made your jaw drop. The guy has all the tools. He might be the face of the NFL in a few years. Newton has some weapons too. Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart all give the Panthers some really nice skill players. Adding Mike Tolbert to their backfield might have been one of the best under-the-radar signings in free agency. Their defense struggled last year, but they were able to pick up MLB Luke Kuechly in the draft. Ron Rivera should be able to help turn around this defense in year two of his regime. The Panthers took strides last year, and they improved from 2-14 to 6-10. Many people might think that they are a year away but not me. With the problems the Saints had in the bounty scandal, I think the division is ripe for the taking. I'm buying into Newton and the Panthers as one of the surprise playoff teams in 2012.
What I Don't Like: You would have to be a little worried that Newton might suffer from a sophomore slump this year. Can he duplicate or surpass what he accomplished last year? If his play declines, then they are in trouble. Their defense still has some holes in the secondary and at linebacker. their schedule includes the NFC East and the AFC West. That set of games will not be easy, and we know that their division is very competitive.
Prediction: 9-7 and NFC South Champs.
2) Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: GM Thomas Dimitroff has drafted well and built a talented roster. The Falcons have made the playoffs three years in a row. Matt Ryan has proven to be a very solid quarterback in his three years in the league, and he has two very good wideouts in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Michael Turner is still churning out 1,000 yard seasons. The big move in the offseason was the addition of CB Asante Samuel. This team is very well-coached under Mike Smith, and you would think that this team has the right makeup to finally get over the hump and win a playoff game. With the Saints in turmoil, this might be a great chance for them to win the division and make a deep playoff run.
What I Don't Like: Will Ray Edwards step up after signing a huge deal in free agency last season? Can they depend on John Abraham to be a big-time pass rusher anymore? Their defense scares me a little bit. Last year, the Falcons feasted on a weak schedule to win 10 games and make the playoffs. They were embarrassed by the Giants in Wild Card round last year, and this season will not be a success if they don't win at least one playoff game in January. I think there is a lot of pressure on them, and when a team feels pressure every week, it could be a real negative. I think the Falcons are a good team, but my gut tells me that they will fall short of making the playoffs this year. Call it a hunch but the Falcons will miss out of the playoffs in 2012.
Prediction; 8-8 and second place in NFC South.
3) New Orleans Saints
What I Like: No matter what happened to the Saints in the offseason, they still have Drew Brees at the controls. Brees is an elite level quarterback, and as long as he is back there for New Orleans, their offense will score points and be deadly. He still has Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jimmy Graham, and Lance Moore at his disposal. Also, the two-headed running back tandem of Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram should be able to help the ground game produce some points in the redzone. Defensively, the Saints added Broderick Bunkley and Curtis Lofton to their front seven, and those additions should be helpful. The Saints defense is always at an advantage because their offense score so many points, so they are always playing from ahead-especially at home. The Saints were 13-3 last year, and if they don't blow that game late against San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs, then they are probably headed to the Super Bowl and possibly their second championship in three years. They have all the talent to get back to the playoffs and go into 2012 as a serious Super Bowl contender once again.
What I Don't Like: When the NFL Network airs the "Top 10 Worst Offseasons in History" special at some point, the Saints should make the list at number one. The bounty scandal led to Jonathan Vilma getting suspended for the entire season, a loss of draft picks, and head coach Sean Payton getting suspended for the whole year as well. It just seemed that every time you watched NFL Network or ESPN there was another story about "Bountygate," and that dark cloud kind of hovered over the Saints continuously. The loss of Sean Payton will be huge for this team. Interim coach Joe Vitt also found himself suspended for the first eight games of the season. It just seems like too much of a distraction for a team to overcome. When you don't know who your head coach will be the first part of the season, then that doesn't bode well for a team trying to get off to a fast start. I know they have Brees, but I would be very worried about that offense without Payton pushing the buttons. There was just too much negativity surrounding the Saints, and I really believe that it will affect their play on the field this season. The Saints will take a step back this year in the wake of the bounty controversy, and look for them to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Last year was a complete disaster for the Bucs. The team completely quit on former head coach Raheem Morris. Josh Freeman did not play as well as he did in 2010, so you would expect him to have a bounce back season in 2012. If Freeman plays the way he is capable of and doesn't turn the ball over as much as he did in 2011, then the Bucs could be onto something. Adding Vincent Jackson was a great move for their offense, but getting Carl Nicks might have been their best move. New head coach Greg Schiano has a chance to turn this team around a lot quicker then people might expect. The hiring of Schiano was a good move, and I think he will light a fire under this team. I really liked their draft too. They got an impact player on defense in safety Mark Barron, and Doug Martin was a great pick late in the first round to help their running game. The Bucs will surprise a lot of people, and they will not be a pushover in a tough NFC South.
What I Don't Like: Anytime you get a new head coach there are going to be some growing pains. As much as I respect Schiano, this is his first shot as a head coach in the NFL. The NFL is a lot more humbling than college. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who else scares you in the passing game? Defensively, they were awful down the stretch last year. You would expect the Bucs to turn it around a little bit on defense, but there are a lot of young players who need to step up and prove it. I was very close to picking the Bucs as a sleeper team this year, but at the last minute I chose not to. The Bucs will be very competitive this year, but I think they are a year away.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC South.
NFC West
1) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The Niners were a muffed punt away from going to the Super Bowl last year. Jim Harbaugh proved that he is an excellent coach, and he turned the Niners around in one season. You have to love the way they play: Solid defense, force turnovers, play field position, control the game on the ground, and limit the mistakes for Alex Smith. If that happens, then San Francisco can repeat the performance from last season. Their biggest weakness was wide receiver. The team addressed that by adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in free agency and drafting A.J. Jenkins in the first round of the draft. Their defense returns all 11 starters and you have to love that pass rush with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith leading the way. In a weak division, the Niners should repeat as NFC West winners.
What I Don't Like: There is no way that the Niners will be able to win 13 games again this season. They were able to force a lot of turnovers and win a lot of close games last year. That recipe doesn't usually hold up from year-to-year. You would have to expect some sort of step back this year. Their schedule is not easy. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North this year, and they also draw the Giants and the Saints. Four out of their last six games are on the road. Alex Smith is a nice quarterback, but there is a reason the Niners flirted with Peyton Manning in the offseason.
Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West
2) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Jeff Fisher will turn this program around. I'm was a big fan of Fisher in Tennessee, and I think he will get the most out of this roster in 2012. It is not a great roster, but they have Sam Bradford at quarterback. 2011 was a nightmare for Bradford. He had to learn a new offense after the lockout, his team got banged up early, he faced a murderous schedule, and he was hurt off and on all year. Look for Bradford to rebound and have a really solid campaign this year. This team does have some young talent. They have Steven Jackson, and there have been a lot of positive news about wideouts Steve Smith and Danny Amendola out of training camp. On defense, they have Chris Long, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, and Cortland Finnegan. Their draft was widely considered on the best last year, and they used their top picks on DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Brian Quick, and RB Isaiah Pead. All of those picks should come in in contribute right away.
What I Don't Like: Can they go from 2-14 to a playoff team in one year? They might a tall order for them in year one of the Jeff Fisher era. There still on some question marks on the offensive line, and this team might need another year before they are truly playoff contenders. I think their defense will be tested, and they are relying on a lot of young guys to step up. If those young players don't pan out, it could be a long season. I also worry about the overall depth of their roster. When you lose a lot of the games like the Rams did the last few years, you wonder about depleted of a roster the team has. Plus, Bradford is learning his third system in three years, and it might take time for him to get going offensively. The Rams could be a really intriguing sleeper pick, but I think they might be a year or two away.
Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC West.
3) Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
What I Like: Russell Wilson should be an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback this season. Wilson has looked really good in the preseason, and if he stumbles, then they have a viable option in Matt Flynn. Although he is constantly in trouble off the field, you have to love the ability of Marshawn Lynch. He revitalized his career in Seattle, and he is coming off a 1,200 yard season with 12 touchdowns on the ground. He is their best offensive weapon. They do benefit from playing in a weak division, and that could help keep them in the playoff race throughout the year.
What I Don't Like: Can Russell Wilson really be the guy? When you have question marks at the QB spot, it is never a good sign. I hated how Pete Carroll went out and signed veteran receivers like Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. They cut Owens, but you have to wonder about their talent at wide receiver if they brought him in. Their receivers as a whole might be the weakest group in the league. Their first round selection of DE Bruce Irvin raised a lot of eyebrows, and he was considered the biggest reach of round one. There just seems to be too many question marks with this team, and I think they will struggle this year as a result.
Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the NFC West.
4) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best receivers in the game, and the addition of Michael Floyd gives the Cardinals a legitimate threat opposite of Fitzgerald. Patrick Peterson is still progressing as an NFL cornerback, but his ability in the return game is fantastic. He can score every time he fields a punt. That could be a real game changer for them this season. There might not be a more underrated head coach in the NFL than Ken Whisenhunt. He made this franchise relevant, and he almost got them into the playoffs last year.
What I Don't Like: You have to start with the quarterback position. Kevin Kolb hasn't lived up to the expectations that he came to Arizona with. If the Cardinals go with John Skelton, I understand the reasons behind the move, but it is hard to see Skelton breaking out and having a huge year. If Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd can't get anyone to get them the ball, then their offensive philosophy goes down the drain. Also, there are still weaknesses up front on their offensive line. It just seems that the Cardinals are stuck with a really troublesome quarterback situation. As the saying goes, "If you have two quarterbacks, then you really don't have one." It is hard to see the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot in 2012, and I expect them to have a really down year and bottom out in the NFC West.
Prediction: 3-13 and fourth place in the NFC West.
*Quick Review*
NFC East
1) Dallas (11-5)
2) Philly (10-6) Wild Card
3) NY Giants (10-6) Wild Card
4) Washington (8-8)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)
3) Detroit (8-8)
4) Minnesota (4-12)
NFC South
1) Carolina (9-7)
2) Atlanta (8-8)
3) New Orleans (8-8)
4) Tampa Bay (8-8)
NFC West
1) San Francisco (9-7)
2) St. Louis (8-8)
3) Seattle (6-10)
4) Arizona (3-13)
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(6) Giants over (3) San Francisco (Giants become first Super Bowl winner to win first playoff game the next season since 2005 Patriots)
(5) Philly over (4) Carolina (Vick outduels Newton as Philly wins a playoff game for the first time since 2008)
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay over (6) Giants (The Packers avenge last year's playoff loss to the Giants)
(5) Philly over (2) Dallas (Eagles advance to the NFC Championship for the sixth time under Andy Reid)
NFC Championship
(1) Green Bay over (5) Philly (Packers return to the Super Bowl for second time in three years)
What I Don't Like: When the NFL Network airs the "Top 10 Worst Offseasons in History" special at some point, the Saints should make the list at number one. The bounty scandal led to Jonathan Vilma getting suspended for the entire season, a loss of draft picks, and head coach Sean Payton getting suspended for the whole year as well. It just seemed that every time you watched NFL Network or ESPN there was another story about "Bountygate," and that dark cloud kind of hovered over the Saints continuously. The loss of Sean Payton will be huge for this team. Interim coach Joe Vitt also found himself suspended for the first eight games of the season. It just seems like too much of a distraction for a team to overcome. When you don't know who your head coach will be the first part of the season, then that doesn't bode well for a team trying to get off to a fast start. I know they have Brees, but I would be very worried about that offense without Payton pushing the buttons. There was just too much negativity surrounding the Saints, and I really believe that it will affect their play on the field this season. The Saints will take a step back this year in the wake of the bounty controversy, and look for them to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Last year was a complete disaster for the Bucs. The team completely quit on former head coach Raheem Morris. Josh Freeman did not play as well as he did in 2010, so you would expect him to have a bounce back season in 2012. If Freeman plays the way he is capable of and doesn't turn the ball over as much as he did in 2011, then the Bucs could be onto something. Adding Vincent Jackson was a great move for their offense, but getting Carl Nicks might have been their best move. New head coach Greg Schiano has a chance to turn this team around a lot quicker then people might expect. The hiring of Schiano was a good move, and I think he will light a fire under this team. I really liked their draft too. They got an impact player on defense in safety Mark Barron, and Doug Martin was a great pick late in the first round to help their running game. The Bucs will surprise a lot of people, and they will not be a pushover in a tough NFC South.
What I Don't Like: Anytime you get a new head coach there are going to be some growing pains. As much as I respect Schiano, this is his first shot as a head coach in the NFL. The NFL is a lot more humbling than college. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who else scares you in the passing game? Defensively, they were awful down the stretch last year. You would expect the Bucs to turn it around a little bit on defense, but there are a lot of young players who need to step up and prove it. I was very close to picking the Bucs as a sleeper team this year, but at the last minute I chose not to. The Bucs will be very competitive this year, but I think they are a year away.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC South.
NFC West
1) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The Niners were a muffed punt away from going to the Super Bowl last year. Jim Harbaugh proved that he is an excellent coach, and he turned the Niners around in one season. You have to love the way they play: Solid defense, force turnovers, play field position, control the game on the ground, and limit the mistakes for Alex Smith. If that happens, then San Francisco can repeat the performance from last season. Their biggest weakness was wide receiver. The team addressed that by adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in free agency and drafting A.J. Jenkins in the first round of the draft. Their defense returns all 11 starters and you have to love that pass rush with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith leading the way. In a weak division, the Niners should repeat as NFC West winners.
What I Don't Like: There is no way that the Niners will be able to win 13 games again this season. They were able to force a lot of turnovers and win a lot of close games last year. That recipe doesn't usually hold up from year-to-year. You would have to expect some sort of step back this year. Their schedule is not easy. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North this year, and they also draw the Giants and the Saints. Four out of their last six games are on the road. Alex Smith is a nice quarterback, but there is a reason the Niners flirted with Peyton Manning in the offseason.
Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West
2) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Jeff Fisher will turn this program around. I'm was a big fan of Fisher in Tennessee, and I think he will get the most out of this roster in 2012. It is not a great roster, but they have Sam Bradford at quarterback. 2011 was a nightmare for Bradford. He had to learn a new offense after the lockout, his team got banged up early, he faced a murderous schedule, and he was hurt off and on all year. Look for Bradford to rebound and have a really solid campaign this year. This team does have some young talent. They have Steven Jackson, and there have been a lot of positive news about wideouts Steve Smith and Danny Amendola out of training camp. On defense, they have Chris Long, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, and Cortland Finnegan. Their draft was widely considered on the best last year, and they used their top picks on DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Brian Quick, and RB Isaiah Pead. All of those picks should come in in contribute right away.
What I Don't Like: Can they go from 2-14 to a playoff team in one year? They might a tall order for them in year one of the Jeff Fisher era. There still on some question marks on the offensive line, and this team might need another year before they are truly playoff contenders. I think their defense will be tested, and they are relying on a lot of young guys to step up. If those young players don't pan out, it could be a long season. I also worry about the overall depth of their roster. When you lose a lot of the games like the Rams did the last few years, you wonder about depleted of a roster the team has. Plus, Bradford is learning his third system in three years, and it might take time for him to get going offensively. The Rams could be a really intriguing sleeper pick, but I think they might be a year or two away.
Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC West.
3) Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
What I Like: Russell Wilson should be an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback this season. Wilson has looked really good in the preseason, and if he stumbles, then they have a viable option in Matt Flynn. Although he is constantly in trouble off the field, you have to love the ability of Marshawn Lynch. He revitalized his career in Seattle, and he is coming off a 1,200 yard season with 12 touchdowns on the ground. He is their best offensive weapon. They do benefit from playing in a weak division, and that could help keep them in the playoff race throughout the year.
What I Don't Like: Can Russell Wilson really be the guy? When you have question marks at the QB spot, it is never a good sign. I hated how Pete Carroll went out and signed veteran receivers like Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. They cut Owens, but you have to wonder about their talent at wide receiver if they brought him in. Their receivers as a whole might be the weakest group in the league. Their first round selection of DE Bruce Irvin raised a lot of eyebrows, and he was considered the biggest reach of round one. There just seems to be too many question marks with this team, and I think they will struggle this year as a result.
Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the NFC West.
4) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best receivers in the game, and the addition of Michael Floyd gives the Cardinals a legitimate threat opposite of Fitzgerald. Patrick Peterson is still progressing as an NFL cornerback, but his ability in the return game is fantastic. He can score every time he fields a punt. That could be a real game changer for them this season. There might not be a more underrated head coach in the NFL than Ken Whisenhunt. He made this franchise relevant, and he almost got them into the playoffs last year.
What I Don't Like: You have to start with the quarterback position. Kevin Kolb hasn't lived up to the expectations that he came to Arizona with. If the Cardinals go with John Skelton, I understand the reasons behind the move, but it is hard to see Skelton breaking out and having a huge year. If Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd can't get anyone to get them the ball, then their offensive philosophy goes down the drain. Also, there are still weaknesses up front on their offensive line. It just seems that the Cardinals are stuck with a really troublesome quarterback situation. As the saying goes, "If you have two quarterbacks, then you really don't have one." It is hard to see the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot in 2012, and I expect them to have a really down year and bottom out in the NFC West.
Prediction: 3-13 and fourth place in the NFC West.
*Quick Review*
NFC East
1) Dallas (11-5)
2) Philly (10-6) Wild Card
3) NY Giants (10-6) Wild Card
4) Washington (8-8)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)
3) Detroit (8-8)
4) Minnesota (4-12)
NFC South
1) Carolina (9-7)
2) Atlanta (8-8)
3) New Orleans (8-8)
4) Tampa Bay (8-8)
NFC West
1) San Francisco (9-7)
2) St. Louis (8-8)
3) Seattle (6-10)
4) Arizona (3-13)
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(6) Giants over (3) San Francisco (Giants become first Super Bowl winner to win first playoff game the next season since 2005 Patriots)
(5) Philly over (4) Carolina (Vick outduels Newton as Philly wins a playoff game for the first time since 2008)
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay over (6) Giants (The Packers avenge last year's playoff loss to the Giants)
(5) Philly over (2) Dallas (Eagles advance to the NFC Championship for the sixth time under Andy Reid)
NFC Championship
(1) Green Bay over (5) Philly (Packers return to the Super Bowl for second time in three years)
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Broncos Fall to Seahawks in Preseason Game #2
The Broncos fell to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 of the preseason 30-10 last Saturday Night at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Naturally, the story of the night was the home debut of Peyton Manning. Although Manning had some errant throws-he threw two first half interceptions- he did lead two scoring drives and gave the Broncos a 10-9 lead heading into the halftime. Unfortunately, the Broncos second and third teamers could not hold their own, and the Broncos gave up 21 unanswered points in the second half. As we head into the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal, he are my quick thoughts on the Broncos loss at home to Seattle....
1) Peyton Manning made some classic Peyton Manning-type throws. He did throw two interceptions. One was tipped at the line, and the other was a really bad throw down the seam, but overall he showed signs that he is well on his way to recovering and playing the way he is capable of. Manning was 16-23 for 177 yards on the night, and he was victimized by a few drops. Jacob Tamme dropped a surefire touchdown late in the half that would have given Denver a 14-9 lead instead of a 10-9 lead. Manning led two scoring drives, and you have to be happy that he was just out there playing. He even took a shot from Bruce Irvin and got right back up. I feel very confident that Mannning will continue to get more and more comfortable, and he will be ready to roll come the season opener.
2) The Bronco run defense looked very shaky. This is a big concern for me heading into the season. The Seahawks really moved the ball well on the ground, and the Broncos have to find a way to stop the run. If they can't stop the run in preseason, it could be a signal for things to come in the regular season. You hope Denver's first unit will play better this week against a tough San Francisco run game.
3) The Broncos will really spread the ball around on offense. Guys like Brandon Stokley, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dressen are going to play a real key role in this offense. Manning is going to get the ball to a lot of guys in different situations.
4) Depth might be a really big problem. The Broncos backups got smoked in the second half. That does not bode well for the long haul of a typical NFL season. You know that injuries always play a factor, and the Broncos just don't look like they have a lot of depth at key positions. Brock Osweiler didn't have a great outing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos cut Caleb Hanie and looked for an experienced backup to add to the roster. There are a lot of question marks at the back end of this team right now.
5) The Broncos will play Manning and their starters deep into the third quarter on Sunday night against the Niners. Let's just pray that no one gets hurt. The Broncos have already had some bad luck this preseason when they lost Chris Kuper for the first three games of the season with a broken arm, and they lost DE Jason Hunter for most of the season with a triceps tear. Hopefully, everyone stays healthy, their offense puts up some points, and their defense tightens up the run game in their last tuneup for the regular season.
1) Peyton Manning made some classic Peyton Manning-type throws. He did throw two interceptions. One was tipped at the line, and the other was a really bad throw down the seam, but overall he showed signs that he is well on his way to recovering and playing the way he is capable of. Manning was 16-23 for 177 yards on the night, and he was victimized by a few drops. Jacob Tamme dropped a surefire touchdown late in the half that would have given Denver a 14-9 lead instead of a 10-9 lead. Manning led two scoring drives, and you have to be happy that he was just out there playing. He even took a shot from Bruce Irvin and got right back up. I feel very confident that Mannning will continue to get more and more comfortable, and he will be ready to roll come the season opener.
2) The Bronco run defense looked very shaky. This is a big concern for me heading into the season. The Seahawks really moved the ball well on the ground, and the Broncos have to find a way to stop the run. If they can't stop the run in preseason, it could be a signal for things to come in the regular season. You hope Denver's first unit will play better this week against a tough San Francisco run game.
3) The Broncos will really spread the ball around on offense. Guys like Brandon Stokley, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dressen are going to play a real key role in this offense. Manning is going to get the ball to a lot of guys in different situations.
4) Depth might be a really big problem. The Broncos backups got smoked in the second half. That does not bode well for the long haul of a typical NFL season. You know that injuries always play a factor, and the Broncos just don't look like they have a lot of depth at key positions. Brock Osweiler didn't have a great outing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos cut Caleb Hanie and looked for an experienced backup to add to the roster. There are a lot of question marks at the back end of this team right now.
5) The Broncos will play Manning and their starters deep into the third quarter on Sunday night against the Niners. Let's just pray that no one gets hurt. The Broncos have already had some bad luck this preseason when they lost Chris Kuper for the first three games of the season with a broken arm, and they lost DE Jason Hunter for most of the season with a triceps tear. Hopefully, everyone stays healthy, their offense puts up some points, and their defense tightens up the run game in their last tuneup for the regular season.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Broncos, Manning Make Debut in Preseason Opener against the Bears
The only thing that is important in preseason football is the injury list. You just hope your team avoids. That is the only thing that matters about the preseason in the NFL. Your team has to somehow avoid the big injuries. Last night, the Broncos traveled to Chicago to take on the Bears in their preseason opener. Denver won 31-3, but the real story was the debut of Peyton Manning as a Denver Bronco. Manning only played one series, and he was 4-7 for 44 yards and an interception. Here are my quick thoughts on the game.
1) Obviously, Manning is the story of the night, and he made some really nice throws on his first drive. I am not too concerned about the interception or his overall play in the game. The fact that he played in a game for the first time in over a year is the most important aspect of last night's game for #18. Just getting reps this preseason is the key for Peyton. There is no need to fret over his stats or his numbers.
2) I was really impressed by Brock Osweiler. He looks huge out there, and he really threw the ball well. It will be very interesting to see if the Broncos will push him to take the backup job away from Caleb Hanie.
3) It was hard to gauge the first team defense's performance because Bears QB Jay Cutler didn't play in the game. Also, Chicago first team offense looked so bad, and they fumbled on the first drive, so it was difficult to get a read on the Broncos improvements on defense. I'll take a turnover for one series though.
4) The final running back spot will be up for grabs, but I liked what I saw out of Lance Ball last night. It just seems to always gain positive yards and move the pile. It will be an interesting battle between Ball, Jeremiah Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno.
5) If you are looking at fantasy players on the Broncos besides Peyton Manning and Willis McGahee, then you should look no further than Eric Decker. Decker caught two passes for 29 yards last night, and both catches resulted in first downs. You get the feeling that Decker is going to be Manning's main target all year long.
6) The Broncos host the Seattle Seahawks next Saturday night at Mile High in week two of the preseason.
1) Obviously, Manning is the story of the night, and he made some really nice throws on his first drive. I am not too concerned about the interception or his overall play in the game. The fact that he played in a game for the first time in over a year is the most important aspect of last night's game for #18. Just getting reps this preseason is the key for Peyton. There is no need to fret over his stats or his numbers.
2) I was really impressed by Brock Osweiler. He looks huge out there, and he really threw the ball well. It will be very interesting to see if the Broncos will push him to take the backup job away from Caleb Hanie.
3) It was hard to gauge the first team defense's performance because Bears QB Jay Cutler didn't play in the game. Also, Chicago first team offense looked so bad, and they fumbled on the first drive, so it was difficult to get a read on the Broncos improvements on defense. I'll take a turnover for one series though.
4) The final running back spot will be up for grabs, but I liked what I saw out of Lance Ball last night. It just seems to always gain positive yards and move the pile. It will be an interesting battle between Ball, Jeremiah Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno.
5) If you are looking at fantasy players on the Broncos besides Peyton Manning and Willis McGahee, then you should look no further than Eric Decker. Decker caught two passes for 29 yards last night, and both catches resulted in first downs. You get the feeling that Decker is going to be Manning's main target all year long.
6) The Broncos host the Seattle Seahawks next Saturday night at Mile High in week two of the preseason.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Training Camp Update
The Broncos have completed their first week of training camp, and there are a few key dates coming up in the next week. On Saturday, the Broncos will conduct a scrimmage at Sports Authority Field at Mile High (How ridiculous is that?) that is open to the public. Next, a week from Thursday the Broncos will head to Chicago to take on Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and the Bears in their first preseason game. As training camp continues to unfold, let's take a look at how the first week went down at Dove Valley, and let's examine the buzz around Broncos camp.
1) The first topic when you talk about Broncos training camp is Peyton Manning. It was pretty surreal to watch Manning trot out onto the field last week on the first day of practice for the Denver Broncos. The Broncos drew over 4,000 fans for that first day, and they gave him a pretty nice ovation when he came out. I was watching the coverage on NFL Network, and it was pretty cool to see it all go down live. I kept seeing John Elway on the sidelines watching practice, and I kept thinking about how cool it is to have witnessed Elway's career as a player now mesh with Peyton Manning's career. Anyway, the reports have been solid about Manning's performance in camp. From what I have seen and read, Peyton is throwing the ball well, and he looks good in all drills. There is still a lot to be determined on Manning, and we will find out more once the preseason starts, but the early returns are in, and Manning seems to be on the right track for 2012. One thing that is so refreshing for me is that the daily updates are so enjoyable to follow. You read about how efficient Manning looks, and how he is in total command of the offense. It is such a far cry from last year's training camp when I would hang on every completion or incompletion that Tim Tebow made on a daily basis.
2) One of my other favorite storylines involves the fight for the backup QB job. People have really commented on how Brock Osweiler looks really good in practice. Osweiler could be sneaky good in a few years, and if he progresses according to plan, then he is the first guy up when Peyton retires. Reports have said that he has been so impressive that he might have the inside track on the backup job over Caleb Hanie. That is fine with me because if anything happens to Manning this year, then you might as well get Osweiler up and playing. Did you see Hanie fill in for the injured Jay Cutler last year in Chicago?
3) Ronnie Hillman is going to make an impact this year for the Broncos. As long as he stays healthy, Hillman is going to be a major factor in this offense. People have been raving about Hillman's speed, and you can just see that he is going to get a chance to make some plays starting in Week 1.
4) One of the biggest positional battles in camp was revolving around the defensive tackle position. One name that got lost in the mix in the offseason was Mitch Unrein. Unrein was a spot player last year on the defensive line, but reports are coming back that he is having a good camp. Justin Bannan injured his calf early on, and Unrein has been getting some reps with the first team. It would be a great story if Unrein stepped up for this defense, but the jury is still out, and let's see what happens once the preseason games commence.
5) Here is the one guy that might make a major impact from this year's draft class: Danny Trevathan. I love the name, and he might be a player. Although he is a bit undersized, Trevathan is getting some time with the first defense, and he is also seeing a lot of time in the nickel defense as well. The way the NFL is played nowadays, most defenses are in their nickel defense, so Trevathan might be on the field a lot more than we originally thought. He is definitely someone to watch as the preseason games get going.
6) There are two storylines emerging in the secondary from the first week of camp. The first one involves Rahim Moore. The top rated safety in last year's draft was a bust in year one. Moore looked lost, and he couldn't tackle a soul. The one bright spot for him was his ability to perform backflips for the fans in the endzone after the Broncos defeated the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Game. Moore has gotten some rave reviews from teammates thus far in camp, and he looks like he is going to lock down the other safety spot alongside Mike Adams. The other storyline in camp involves Chris Harris. The undrafted free agent out of Kansas became a valuable member of the secondary last year with his solid play in nickel packages. With the additions of Tracy Porter and Drayton Florence, many thought that Harris could see his playing time diminished. Harris has looked really good so far in camp, and that is a great sign for Broncos fans. You can have too many playmakers in your secondary in today's NFL, and if Harris continues his stellar play, it will only help the Broncos defense improve even more in 2012.
1) The first topic when you talk about Broncos training camp is Peyton Manning. It was pretty surreal to watch Manning trot out onto the field last week on the first day of practice for the Denver Broncos. The Broncos drew over 4,000 fans for that first day, and they gave him a pretty nice ovation when he came out. I was watching the coverage on NFL Network, and it was pretty cool to see it all go down live. I kept seeing John Elway on the sidelines watching practice, and I kept thinking about how cool it is to have witnessed Elway's career as a player now mesh with Peyton Manning's career. Anyway, the reports have been solid about Manning's performance in camp. From what I have seen and read, Peyton is throwing the ball well, and he looks good in all drills. There is still a lot to be determined on Manning, and we will find out more once the preseason starts, but the early returns are in, and Manning seems to be on the right track for 2012. One thing that is so refreshing for me is that the daily updates are so enjoyable to follow. You read about how efficient Manning looks, and how he is in total command of the offense. It is such a far cry from last year's training camp when I would hang on every completion or incompletion that Tim Tebow made on a daily basis.
2) One of my other favorite storylines involves the fight for the backup QB job. People have really commented on how Brock Osweiler looks really good in practice. Osweiler could be sneaky good in a few years, and if he progresses according to plan, then he is the first guy up when Peyton retires. Reports have said that he has been so impressive that he might have the inside track on the backup job over Caleb Hanie. That is fine with me because if anything happens to Manning this year, then you might as well get Osweiler up and playing. Did you see Hanie fill in for the injured Jay Cutler last year in Chicago?
3) Ronnie Hillman is going to make an impact this year for the Broncos. As long as he stays healthy, Hillman is going to be a major factor in this offense. People have been raving about Hillman's speed, and you can just see that he is going to get a chance to make some plays starting in Week 1.
4) One of the biggest positional battles in camp was revolving around the defensive tackle position. One name that got lost in the mix in the offseason was Mitch Unrein. Unrein was a spot player last year on the defensive line, but reports are coming back that he is having a good camp. Justin Bannan injured his calf early on, and Unrein has been getting some reps with the first team. It would be a great story if Unrein stepped up for this defense, but the jury is still out, and let's see what happens once the preseason games commence.
5) Here is the one guy that might make a major impact from this year's draft class: Danny Trevathan. I love the name, and he might be a player. Although he is a bit undersized, Trevathan is getting some time with the first defense, and he is also seeing a lot of time in the nickel defense as well. The way the NFL is played nowadays, most defenses are in their nickel defense, so Trevathan might be on the field a lot more than we originally thought. He is definitely someone to watch as the preseason games get going.
6) There are two storylines emerging in the secondary from the first week of camp. The first one involves Rahim Moore. The top rated safety in last year's draft was a bust in year one. Moore looked lost, and he couldn't tackle a soul. The one bright spot for him was his ability to perform backflips for the fans in the endzone after the Broncos defeated the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Game. Moore has gotten some rave reviews from teammates thus far in camp, and he looks like he is going to lock down the other safety spot alongside Mike Adams. The other storyline in camp involves Chris Harris. The undrafted free agent out of Kansas became a valuable member of the secondary last year with his solid play in nickel packages. With the additions of Tracy Porter and Drayton Florence, many thought that Harris could see his playing time diminished. Harris has looked really good so far in camp, and that is a great sign for Broncos fans. You can have too many playmakers in your secondary in today's NFL, and if Harris continues his stellar play, it will only help the Broncos defense improve even more in 2012.
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