There is nothing better than getting ready for another NFL season. As summer winds down, it is time to look ahead to 2012 and start thinking about what is going to happen this upcoming year in the NFL. It is so much fun to make predictions because the NFL is so unpredictable. Teams that look so good in the preseason fail to live up to expectations, and teams that you don't think will be a factor rise up and surprise. That is what makes the NFL great, and it is what makes predicting the season so challenging.
When you are making NFL predictions for the year, you have to combine a few factors in your decision process. The factors include:
1) Traditionally, the NFL averages at least six teams that made the playoffs the year before to miss the playoffs that upcoming season. Any expert or analyst that has eight or nine teams making return trips to the playoffs is going to be wrong. Don't even take their predictions seriously because it won't break that way. As a result, I swapped out six playoff teams from last year with six teams that didn't make the playoffs.
2) There is always at least one team that makes the playoffs that lost 10 or more games the year before. This team is called the "Sleeper" team (Recent Example: The 2011 Bengals made the playoffs after winning only four games in 2010.)
3) At least one team that looks like a lock on paper to make the playoffs will disappoint and have a down season and miss the playoffs. Sometimes it looks impossible but it happens every year. (Example: The 2009 New York Giants.)
4) There are 32 teams each playing 16 games. If you multiply those two numbers, then you get 512. Every team wins and loses each game, so you divide that number in half and get 256. When you are predicting every team's record, all the wins should add up to 256 and all the losses to add up to 256. The won-loss record for each team should add up to 256-256. Any writer or analyst who fails to do this simple math is completely lost, and their predictions are worthless (Recent Example: Every year on ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning show.)
I've broken down the predictions in two parts. First up is the NFC, and the second part will feature the AFC. Also, I included what I like about each team, and what I don't like about each team because every team in the league has plenty of positives and negatives that could affect their season completely. Let's kick it off with the NFC......
When you are making NFL predictions for the year, you have to combine a few factors in your decision process. The factors include:
1) Traditionally, the NFL averages at least six teams that made the playoffs the year before to miss the playoffs that upcoming season. Any expert or analyst that has eight or nine teams making return trips to the playoffs is going to be wrong. Don't even take their predictions seriously because it won't break that way. As a result, I swapped out six playoff teams from last year with six teams that didn't make the playoffs.
2) There is always at least one team that makes the playoffs that lost 10 or more games the year before. This team is called the "Sleeper" team (Recent Example: The 2011 Bengals made the playoffs after winning only four games in 2010.)
3) At least one team that looks like a lock on paper to make the playoffs will disappoint and have a down season and miss the playoffs. Sometimes it looks impossible but it happens every year. (Example: The 2009 New York Giants.)
4) There are 32 teams each playing 16 games. If you multiply those two numbers, then you get 512. Every team wins and loses each game, so you divide that number in half and get 256. When you are predicting every team's record, all the wins should add up to 256 and all the losses to add up to 256. The won-loss record for each team should add up to 256-256. Any writer or analyst who fails to do this simple math is completely lost, and their predictions are worthless (Recent Example: Every year on ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning show.)
I've broken down the predictions in two parts. First up is the NFC, and the second part will feature the AFC. Also, I included what I like about each team, and what I don't like about each team because every team in the league has plenty of positives and negatives that could affect their season completely. Let's kick it off with the NFC......
NFC East
1) Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: Say what you want about Tony Romo, but he is a
top 10 QB in the NFL. This is the time for him and the rest of that Cowboys
offense. They still have the dangerous trio of Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and
Miles Austin. Although those three are banged up, they should be okay for most of the season.Throw in the emergence of running back DeMarco Murray, and the
Cowboys should be able to put points on the board quite frequently. You have to
love the additions at cornerback. Adding a player like Brandon Carr in free
agency and moving up to get Morris Claiborne in the draft were two huge moves
for their secondary. Dallas is coming off two disappointing seasons, but they still have some of the best overall talent in the league. This just feels
like the year that the Cowboys put it all together and win the NFC East.
What I Don’t Like: Their offensive line is still a question
mark, and you have to wonder about a player like Dez Bryant staying out of
trouble and focusing on football. Jason Garrett was widely criticized last year,
and you wonder if he is the guy who can run the ship in Big D. Also, Rob Ryan
gets a lot of press, but he really needs to step up last year. He did a
horrible job coaching up that defense. Their schedule is pretty tough
considering they have to play the AFC North and the NFC South. Plus, their own
division is always brutal to handle.
Prediction: 11-5 and NFC East Champs
What I Like: Last year was an absolute nightmare for the
Eagles. They were able to win their last four games and finish at 8-8, so you
would think that they would be able to ride that momentum this year. Pound for
pound Philly has one of the most talented rosters in the entire NFL. Michael
Vick, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Brent Celek are at the top of the lists
as far as playmakers go at their respective positions. The addition of DeMeco
Ryans on defense should pay dividends for their linebacking corps, and they
spent their first three draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. There is
no way that this team with this kind of talent will fail to reach their
potential this year. You can just tell that this will be a team on a mission
this season.
What I Don’t Like: Their offensive line still needs to prove
itself. The loss of OT Jason Peters to injury in March could be a real blow to
the team. I know this is beating a dead horse, but Michael Vick needs to prove
that he can stay healthy. If he misses time again, then the Eagles are in
trouble. Their safeties don’t scare me on defense, and I’m still not sold on
Juan Castillo running that unit. As far as their schedule is concerned, they
have to travel to all three NFC East rivals during the second half of the
season.
Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth.
What I Like: The Giants have three things that you need to
win the NFL: A great head coach, a great quarterback, and a dominating pass
rush. Can you really doubt Eli Manning anymore? I don’t think so. With Hakeem
Nicks and Victor Cruz at his disposal, Manning should continue his stellar play
in 2012. Plus, Martellus Bennett might be a real upgrade at the TE position.
Jason Pierre-Paul is quickly becoming one of the most electrifying pass rushers
in the NFL. The Giants defense can overcome a lot of their deficiencies with
JPP, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora attacking the quarterback. You also have
confidence that no matter what happens during the season, Tom Coughlin will
right the ship and get the Giants playing good ball at the right time.
What I Don’t Like: You always worry about a Super Bowl
hangover. The Giants are attempting to become the first Super Bowl winner to
win a playoff game the next year since the 2005 Patriots. Also, the G-Men have
a really brutal schedule. In addition to the NFC East, they have to play the
AFC North, NFC South, Green Bay, and travel to San Francisco. It really is a
“Murderers Row” type of slate. Their secondary is a little worrisome too, they are dealing with injuries again in that area, and
they have a lot of top quarterbacks to deal with on that schedule.
Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth.
4) Washington Redskins
What I Like: Mike Shanahan has missed the playoffs the last
five years he was a head coach in the NFL. He missed the playoffs the last
three years in Denver and the first two in Washington. It is hard to believe
that Shanny will miss the playoffs once again. Robert Griffin III might be one
of the most exciting QBs in the league by the end of the year. You can tell
that RG III is going to be pretty good right away. The Redskins added Pierre
Garcon to their receiving group to go along with Santana Moss, Anthony
Armstrong and TE Fred Davis. It doesn’t matter who Shanahan plugs back there at
running back because he always gets production out of a committee of guys.
Defensively, you have to like the pass rush of Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo
on the edges. This team will be very competitive all season long.
What I Don’t Like: For all the positives that go along with
RG III, he still is a rookie. Defenses are a lot better and a lot quicker than
the ones that he faced in the Big 12. It seems that every year the Redskins
have question marks on the offensive line, and this year is no different. Plus,
their secondary seems very shaky to me. Are you sold on Brandon Merriweather
and Tanard Jackson at safety? I’m certainly not. Their last seven weeks are
very difficult. They play Philly twice, Dallas twice, the Giants, and the
Ravens in six of those last seven games. The Skins might be one year away from cracking through to the
playoffs.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC East.
NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
What I Like: When you talk about
the Packers, you have to start with Aaron Rodgers. He might not be able to put
up the numbers he did last year, but he is the best QB in the NFL right now,
and he will keep the Packers offense moving all year long. The Packers have
so much stability in their receiving corps, and it is hard to see their level
of play diminish this season. Their defense can only get better from a
disappointing season in 2011. They spent the bulk of their draft on defense,
and there are too many playmakers on that side of the ball for them not to
improve. I like their schedule because they should feast on the AFC South and
the NFC West. The Packers were 15-1 last year and at times they looked
unstoppable. The playoff loss to the Giants will serve as a motivation for them
to continue their winning ways, and this team has something to prove this year.
They won’t win 15 games again, but they will be a force to be reckoned with and
a serious Super Bowl contender.
What I Don’t Like: Who is going to
step up and be the man at LT? If Marshall Newhouse doesn’t pan out, then the
Packers might have trouble protecting Rodgers consistently. They are also
banking on two rookies, Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy, to come in and help their defense
immediately. They might be too much to ask. Their division is very tough, and
they’ve got to deal with Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford four times throughout
the year.
Prediction 11-5 and NFC North
Champs
What I Like: If Jay Cutler didn't
get hurt last year, then the Bears had a legitimate chance to make the Super
Bowl. Cutler is back this year, and the Bears added Brandon Marshall in the
offseason. We know how successful Cutler and Marshall were in Denver
together-Thanks again Josh McDaniels- and the Bears finally got the big
receiver they have been craving for. You have to like the addition of
Jeremy Bates to the coaching staff. Bates was the offensive coordinator in
Denver in 2008, and he knows how to get big time production from both Cutler
and Marshall. The Bears were able to resign Matt Forte, and the trio of Forte,
Marshall and Cutler could be one of the best in the league. You know Lovie
Smith is going to put together a solid defense, and Julius Peppers is still a dominating
player as an edge rusher.
What I Don’t Like: With all the
talk about how great it is that Cutler and Marshall are back together, you
realize that they never made the playoffs once in Denver in the three years
they were there. As great of a player that Marshall is, you still can’t trust
him off the field or in the locker room. I’m not buying all these stories about
the maturity of Brandon Marshall. The guy is a flake, and this dream scenario
could be a nightmare if he isn’t getting the ball enough or the offense
sputters at some point. That offensive line is still a work in progress as
well. The thing that really worries me is health of Brain Urlacher. If Urlacher
isn’t full go, and Lance Briggs shows his age, then the Bears could be in real
trouble defensively. Also, the Bears have become the trendy pick to unseat the
Packers in the NFC North, and a lot of people have predicted a possible Super
Bowl berth. I’m not totally sold on them, and I still don’t think they have
enough to take over the Packers in that division. The Bears will be good but
not good enough to make the playoffs in a tough NFC.
Prediction: 9-7 and second place
in the NFC North.
What I Like: They have the best,
young QB-WR combination in the league with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
Stafford is on the cusp of becoming one of the elite QBs in the NFL, and
Johnson is flat out dominating at the receiver spot. It looked like a video
game with them at times last season. The Lions have young talent in so many spots
on offense. Their pass rush is really good, and Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, and
Kyle Vanden Bosch can certainly get after the quarterback. As far as rosters
go, the young talent that the Lions have puts them near the top of the list at
many key positions. The fact that they play the NFC West and the AFC South this
year should get them a boatload of wins right of the bat.
What I Don’t Like: You can’t be
happy with the type of offseason the Lions went through. They had so many
arrests and off the field problems. It got so bad that they cut starting CB Aaron
Berry because of his multiple arrests. The Lions didn’t handle success very well last year once they
started winning, and it seems as if that attitude has carried over to this
year. Jim Schwartz did a nice job turning the franchise around, but even he has
handled some of the success the wrong way. I’m not totally buying in on him
becoming a big-time NFL head coach. The Lions have the talent to make the
playoffs again, but there seems to be a lack of maturity with this group. I
think the Lions take a step back this season, and miss the playoffs. It might
be the best thing that happens to this franchise.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in
the NFC North.
4) Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: Hey, the Vikings got a new stadium approved, and it will ensure them that they will be staying in Minnesota! That might be the best news to come out of 2012 for the Vikings. On the field, Christian Ponder did show some flashes of brilliance in his rookie season. Adrian Peterson is on schedule to return from ACL surgery, and they made the right move by drafting Matt Kalil at number four overall in the April's draft. Jared Allen had a great season in 2011, and he is still playing at a high level. Everyone is talking about the Packers, Bears, and Lions, and the Vikings are just sitting their waiting in the wings. Perhaps they are the sleeper team that no one sees coming in 2012.
What I Don't Like: Ponder looks like a nice player, but I don't think he will become an elite quarterback. Their defense has to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford six times during the season. That is a lot to ask out of a defense. Peterson is on track to come back, but how effective will he be after tearing up his knee in Week 16 last season? Everyone wanted Brad Childress out and Leslie Frazier in as head coach a few years ago. Is Frazer really an upgrade? He might be out the door if the Vikings have another bad season. There is just not enough talent to compete with the other teams in this division. It could be another long year for Vikings fans, and I don't see Minnesota having a great season.
Prediction: 4-12 and last in the NFC North.
NFC South
1) Carolina Panthers
What I Like: I was very skeptical when Cam Newton entered the league last year, but I was dead wrong. Newton is dynamic, and he made some throws last year that made your jaw drop. The guy has all the tools. He might be the face of the NFL in a few years. Newton has some weapons too. Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart all give the Panthers some really nice skill players. Adding Mike Tolbert to their backfield might have been one of the best under-the-radar signings in free agency. Their defense struggled last year, but they were able to pick up MLB Luke Kuechly in the draft. Ron Rivera should be able to help turn around this defense in year two of his regime. The Panthers took strides last year, and they improved from 2-14 to 6-10. Many people might think that they are a year away but not me. With the problems the Saints had in the bounty scandal, I think the division is ripe for the taking. I'm buying into Newton and the Panthers as one of the surprise playoff teams in 2012.
What I Don't Like: You would have to be a little worried that Newton might suffer from a sophomore slump this year. Can he duplicate or surpass what he accomplished last year? If his play declines, then they are in trouble. Their defense still has some holes in the secondary and at linebacker. their schedule includes the NFC East and the AFC West. That set of games will not be easy, and we know that their division is very competitive.
Prediction: 9-7 and NFC South Champs.
2) Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: GM Thomas Dimitroff has drafted well and built a talented roster. The Falcons have made the playoffs three years in a row. Matt Ryan has proven to be a very solid quarterback in his three years in the league, and he has two very good wideouts in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Michael Turner is still churning out 1,000 yard seasons. The big move in the offseason was the addition of CB Asante Samuel. This team is very well-coached under Mike Smith, and you would think that this team has the right makeup to finally get over the hump and win a playoff game. With the Saints in turmoil, this might be a great chance for them to win the division and make a deep playoff run.
What I Don't Like: Will Ray Edwards step up after signing a huge deal in free agency last season? Can they depend on John Abraham to be a big-time pass rusher anymore? Their defense scares me a little bit. Last year, the Falcons feasted on a weak schedule to win 10 games and make the playoffs. They were embarrassed by the Giants in Wild Card round last year, and this season will not be a success if they don't win at least one playoff game in January. I think there is a lot of pressure on them, and when a team feels pressure every week, it could be a real negative. I think the Falcons are a good team, but my gut tells me that they will fall short of making the playoffs this year. Call it a hunch but the Falcons will miss out of the playoffs in 2012.
Prediction; 8-8 and second place in NFC South.
3) New Orleans Saints
What I Like: No matter what happened to the Saints in the offseason, they still have Drew Brees at the controls. Brees is an elite level quarterback, and as long as he is back there for New Orleans, their offense will score points and be deadly. He still has Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jimmy Graham, and Lance Moore at his disposal. Also, the two-headed running back tandem of Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram should be able to help the ground game produce some points in the redzone. Defensively, the Saints added Broderick Bunkley and Curtis Lofton to their front seven, and those additions should be helpful. The Saints defense is always at an advantage because their offense score so many points, so they are always playing from ahead-especially at home. The Saints were 13-3 last year, and if they don't blow that game late against San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs, then they are probably headed to the Super Bowl and possibly their second championship in three years. They have all the talent to get back to the playoffs and go into 2012 as a serious Super Bowl contender once again.
What I Don't Like: When the NFL Network airs the "Top 10 Worst Offseasons in History" special at some point, the Saints should make the list at number one. The bounty scandal led to Jonathan Vilma getting suspended for the entire season, a loss of draft picks, and head coach Sean Payton getting suspended for the whole year as well. It just seemed that every time you watched NFL Network or ESPN there was another story about "Bountygate," and that dark cloud kind of hovered over the Saints continuously. The loss of Sean Payton will be huge for this team. Interim coach Joe Vitt also found himself suspended for the first eight games of the season. It just seems like too much of a distraction for a team to overcome. When you don't know who your head coach will be the first part of the season, then that doesn't bode well for a team trying to get off to a fast start. I know they have Brees, but I would be very worried about that offense without Payton pushing the buttons. There was just too much negativity surrounding the Saints, and I really believe that it will affect their play on the field this season. The Saints will take a step back this year in the wake of the bounty controversy, and look for them to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Last year was a complete disaster for the Bucs. The team completely quit on former head coach Raheem Morris. Josh Freeman did not play as well as he did in 2010, so you would expect him to have a bounce back season in 2012. If Freeman plays the way he is capable of and doesn't turn the ball over as much as he did in 2011, then the Bucs could be onto something. Adding Vincent Jackson was a great move for their offense, but getting Carl Nicks might have been their best move. New head coach Greg Schiano has a chance to turn this team around a lot quicker then people might expect. The hiring of Schiano was a good move, and I think he will light a fire under this team. I really liked their draft too. They got an impact player on defense in safety Mark Barron, and Doug Martin was a great pick late in the first round to help their running game. The Bucs will surprise a lot of people, and they will not be a pushover in a tough NFC South.
What I Don't Like: Anytime you get a new head coach there are going to be some growing pains. As much as I respect Schiano, this is his first shot as a head coach in the NFL. The NFL is a lot more humbling than college. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who else scares you in the passing game? Defensively, they were awful down the stretch last year. You would expect the Bucs to turn it around a little bit on defense, but there are a lot of young players who need to step up and prove it. I was very close to picking the Bucs as a sleeper team this year, but at the last minute I chose not to. The Bucs will be very competitive this year, but I think they are a year away.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC South.
NFC West
1) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The Niners were a muffed punt away from going to the Super Bowl last year. Jim Harbaugh proved that he is an excellent coach, and he turned the Niners around in one season. You have to love the way they play: Solid defense, force turnovers, play field position, control the game on the ground, and limit the mistakes for Alex Smith. If that happens, then San Francisco can repeat the performance from last season. Their biggest weakness was wide receiver. The team addressed that by adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in free agency and drafting A.J. Jenkins in the first round of the draft. Their defense returns all 11 starters and you have to love that pass rush with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith leading the way. In a weak division, the Niners should repeat as NFC West winners.
What I Don't Like: There is no way that the Niners will be able to win 13 games again this season. They were able to force a lot of turnovers and win a lot of close games last year. That recipe doesn't usually hold up from year-to-year. You would have to expect some sort of step back this year. Their schedule is not easy. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North this year, and they also draw the Giants and the Saints. Four out of their last six games are on the road. Alex Smith is a nice quarterback, but there is a reason the Niners flirted with Peyton Manning in the offseason.
Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West
2) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Jeff Fisher will turn this program around. I'm was a big fan of Fisher in Tennessee, and I think he will get the most out of this roster in 2012. It is not a great roster, but they have Sam Bradford at quarterback. 2011 was a nightmare for Bradford. He had to learn a new offense after the lockout, his team got banged up early, he faced a murderous schedule, and he was hurt off and on all year. Look for Bradford to rebound and have a really solid campaign this year. This team does have some young talent. They have Steven Jackson, and there have been a lot of positive news about wideouts Steve Smith and Danny Amendola out of training camp. On defense, they have Chris Long, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, and Cortland Finnegan. Their draft was widely considered on the best last year, and they used their top picks on DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Brian Quick, and RB Isaiah Pead. All of those picks should come in in contribute right away.
What I Don't Like: Can they go from 2-14 to a playoff team in one year? They might a tall order for them in year one of the Jeff Fisher era. There still on some question marks on the offensive line, and this team might need another year before they are truly playoff contenders. I think their defense will be tested, and they are relying on a lot of young guys to step up. If those young players don't pan out, it could be a long season. I also worry about the overall depth of their roster. When you lose a lot of the games like the Rams did the last few years, you wonder about depleted of a roster the team has. Plus, Bradford is learning his third system in three years, and it might take time for him to get going offensively. The Rams could be a really intriguing sleeper pick, but I think they might be a year or two away.
Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC West.
3) Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
What I Like: Russell Wilson should be an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback this season. Wilson has looked really good in the preseason, and if he stumbles, then they have a viable option in Matt Flynn. Although he is constantly in trouble off the field, you have to love the ability of Marshawn Lynch. He revitalized his career in Seattle, and he is coming off a 1,200 yard season with 12 touchdowns on the ground. He is their best offensive weapon. They do benefit from playing in a weak division, and that could help keep them in the playoff race throughout the year.
What I Don't Like: Can Russell Wilson really be the guy? When you have question marks at the QB spot, it is never a good sign. I hated how Pete Carroll went out and signed veteran receivers like Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. They cut Owens, but you have to wonder about their talent at wide receiver if they brought him in. Their receivers as a whole might be the weakest group in the league. Their first round selection of DE Bruce Irvin raised a lot of eyebrows, and he was considered the biggest reach of round one. There just seems to be too many question marks with this team, and I think they will struggle this year as a result.
Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the NFC West.
4) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best receivers in the game, and the addition of Michael Floyd gives the Cardinals a legitimate threat opposite of Fitzgerald. Patrick Peterson is still progressing as an NFL cornerback, but his ability in the return game is fantastic. He can score every time he fields a punt. That could be a real game changer for them this season. There might not be a more underrated head coach in the NFL than Ken Whisenhunt. He made this franchise relevant, and he almost got them into the playoffs last year.
What I Don't Like: You have to start with the quarterback position. Kevin Kolb hasn't lived up to the expectations that he came to Arizona with. If the Cardinals go with John Skelton, I understand the reasons behind the move, but it is hard to see Skelton breaking out and having a huge year. If Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd can't get anyone to get them the ball, then their offensive philosophy goes down the drain. Also, there are still weaknesses up front on their offensive line. It just seems that the Cardinals are stuck with a really troublesome quarterback situation. As the saying goes, "If you have two quarterbacks, then you really don't have one." It is hard to see the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot in 2012, and I expect them to have a really down year and bottom out in the NFC West.
Prediction: 3-13 and fourth place in the NFC West.
*Quick Review*
NFC East
1) Dallas (11-5)
2) Philly (10-6) Wild Card
3) NY Giants (10-6) Wild Card
4) Washington (8-8)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)
3) Detroit (8-8)
4) Minnesota (4-12)
NFC South
1) Carolina (9-7)
2) Atlanta (8-8)
3) New Orleans (8-8)
4) Tampa Bay (8-8)
NFC West
1) San Francisco (9-7)
2) St. Louis (8-8)
3) Seattle (6-10)
4) Arizona (3-13)
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(6) Giants over (3) San Francisco (Giants become first Super Bowl winner to win first playoff game the next season since 2005 Patriots)
(5) Philly over (4) Carolina (Vick outduels Newton as Philly wins a playoff game for the first time since 2008)
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay over (6) Giants (The Packers avenge last year's playoff loss to the Giants)
(5) Philly over (2) Dallas (Eagles advance to the NFC Championship for the sixth time under Andy Reid)
NFC Championship
(1) Green Bay over (5) Philly (Packers return to the Super Bowl for second time in three years)
What I Don't Like: When the NFL Network airs the "Top 10 Worst Offseasons in History" special at some point, the Saints should make the list at number one. The bounty scandal led to Jonathan Vilma getting suspended for the entire season, a loss of draft picks, and head coach Sean Payton getting suspended for the whole year as well. It just seemed that every time you watched NFL Network or ESPN there was another story about "Bountygate," and that dark cloud kind of hovered over the Saints continuously. The loss of Sean Payton will be huge for this team. Interim coach Joe Vitt also found himself suspended for the first eight games of the season. It just seems like too much of a distraction for a team to overcome. When you don't know who your head coach will be the first part of the season, then that doesn't bode well for a team trying to get off to a fast start. I know they have Brees, but I would be very worried about that offense without Payton pushing the buttons. There was just too much negativity surrounding the Saints, and I really believe that it will affect their play on the field this season. The Saints will take a step back this year in the wake of the bounty controversy, and look for them to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC South.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Last year was a complete disaster for the Bucs. The team completely quit on former head coach Raheem Morris. Josh Freeman did not play as well as he did in 2010, so you would expect him to have a bounce back season in 2012. If Freeman plays the way he is capable of and doesn't turn the ball over as much as he did in 2011, then the Bucs could be onto something. Adding Vincent Jackson was a great move for their offense, but getting Carl Nicks might have been their best move. New head coach Greg Schiano has a chance to turn this team around a lot quicker then people might expect. The hiring of Schiano was a good move, and I think he will light a fire under this team. I really liked their draft too. They got an impact player on defense in safety Mark Barron, and Doug Martin was a great pick late in the first round to help their running game. The Bucs will surprise a lot of people, and they will not be a pushover in a tough NFC South.
What I Don't Like: Anytime you get a new head coach there are going to be some growing pains. As much as I respect Schiano, this is his first shot as a head coach in the NFL. The NFL is a lot more humbling than college. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who else scares you in the passing game? Defensively, they were awful down the stretch last year. You would expect the Bucs to turn it around a little bit on defense, but there are a lot of young players who need to step up and prove it. I was very close to picking the Bucs as a sleeper team this year, but at the last minute I chose not to. The Bucs will be very competitive this year, but I think they are a year away.
Prediction: 8-8 and last in the NFC South.
NFC West
1) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The Niners were a muffed punt away from going to the Super Bowl last year. Jim Harbaugh proved that he is an excellent coach, and he turned the Niners around in one season. You have to love the way they play: Solid defense, force turnovers, play field position, control the game on the ground, and limit the mistakes for Alex Smith. If that happens, then San Francisco can repeat the performance from last season. Their biggest weakness was wide receiver. The team addressed that by adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in free agency and drafting A.J. Jenkins in the first round of the draft. Their defense returns all 11 starters and you have to love that pass rush with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith leading the way. In a weak division, the Niners should repeat as NFC West winners.
What I Don't Like: There is no way that the Niners will be able to win 13 games again this season. They were able to force a lot of turnovers and win a lot of close games last year. That recipe doesn't usually hold up from year-to-year. You would have to expect some sort of step back this year. Their schedule is not easy. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North this year, and they also draw the Giants and the Saints. Four out of their last six games are on the road. Alex Smith is a nice quarterback, but there is a reason the Niners flirted with Peyton Manning in the offseason.
Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West
2) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Jeff Fisher will turn this program around. I'm was a big fan of Fisher in Tennessee, and I think he will get the most out of this roster in 2012. It is not a great roster, but they have Sam Bradford at quarterback. 2011 was a nightmare for Bradford. He had to learn a new offense after the lockout, his team got banged up early, he faced a murderous schedule, and he was hurt off and on all year. Look for Bradford to rebound and have a really solid campaign this year. This team does have some young talent. They have Steven Jackson, and there have been a lot of positive news about wideouts Steve Smith and Danny Amendola out of training camp. On defense, they have Chris Long, Robert Quinn, James Laurinaitis, and Cortland Finnegan. Their draft was widely considered on the best last year, and they used their top picks on DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Brian Quick, and RB Isaiah Pead. All of those picks should come in in contribute right away.
What I Don't Like: Can they go from 2-14 to a playoff team in one year? They might a tall order for them in year one of the Jeff Fisher era. There still on some question marks on the offensive line, and this team might need another year before they are truly playoff contenders. I think their defense will be tested, and they are relying on a lot of young guys to step up. If those young players don't pan out, it could be a long season. I also worry about the overall depth of their roster. When you lose a lot of the games like the Rams did the last few years, you wonder about depleted of a roster the team has. Plus, Bradford is learning his third system in three years, and it might take time for him to get going offensively. The Rams could be a really intriguing sleeper pick, but I think they might be a year or two away.
Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the NFC West.
3) Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
What I Like: Russell Wilson should be an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback this season. Wilson has looked really good in the preseason, and if he stumbles, then they have a viable option in Matt Flynn. Although he is constantly in trouble off the field, you have to love the ability of Marshawn Lynch. He revitalized his career in Seattle, and he is coming off a 1,200 yard season with 12 touchdowns on the ground. He is their best offensive weapon. They do benefit from playing in a weak division, and that could help keep them in the playoff race throughout the year.
What I Don't Like: Can Russell Wilson really be the guy? When you have question marks at the QB spot, it is never a good sign. I hated how Pete Carroll went out and signed veteran receivers like Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. They cut Owens, but you have to wonder about their talent at wide receiver if they brought him in. Their receivers as a whole might be the weakest group in the league. Their first round selection of DE Bruce Irvin raised a lot of eyebrows, and he was considered the biggest reach of round one. There just seems to be too many question marks with this team, and I think they will struggle this year as a result.
Prediction: 6-10 and third place in the NFC West.
4) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best receivers in the game, and the addition of Michael Floyd gives the Cardinals a legitimate threat opposite of Fitzgerald. Patrick Peterson is still progressing as an NFL cornerback, but his ability in the return game is fantastic. He can score every time he fields a punt. That could be a real game changer for them this season. There might not be a more underrated head coach in the NFL than Ken Whisenhunt. He made this franchise relevant, and he almost got them into the playoffs last year.
What I Don't Like: You have to start with the quarterback position. Kevin Kolb hasn't lived up to the expectations that he came to Arizona with. If the Cardinals go with John Skelton, I understand the reasons behind the move, but it is hard to see Skelton breaking out and having a huge year. If Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd can't get anyone to get them the ball, then their offensive philosophy goes down the drain. Also, there are still weaknesses up front on their offensive line. It just seems that the Cardinals are stuck with a really troublesome quarterback situation. As the saying goes, "If you have two quarterbacks, then you really don't have one." It is hard to see the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot in 2012, and I expect them to have a really down year and bottom out in the NFC West.
Prediction: 3-13 and fourth place in the NFC West.
*Quick Review*
NFC East
1) Dallas (11-5)
2) Philly (10-6) Wild Card
3) NY Giants (10-6) Wild Card
4) Washington (8-8)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)
3) Detroit (8-8)
4) Minnesota (4-12)
NFC South
1) Carolina (9-7)
2) Atlanta (8-8)
3) New Orleans (8-8)
4) Tampa Bay (8-8)
NFC West
1) San Francisco (9-7)
2) St. Louis (8-8)
3) Seattle (6-10)
4) Arizona (3-13)
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(6) Giants over (3) San Francisco (Giants become first Super Bowl winner to win first playoff game the next season since 2005 Patriots)
(5) Philly over (4) Carolina (Vick outduels Newton as Philly wins a playoff game for the first time since 2008)
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay over (6) Giants (The Packers avenge last year's playoff loss to the Giants)
(5) Philly over (2) Dallas (Eagles advance to the NFC Championship for the sixth time under Andy Reid)
NFC Championship
(1) Green Bay over (5) Philly (Packers return to the Super Bowl for second time in three years)
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