NFL Week 5 Picks!

The rule of thumb in the NFL is that the surprise teams will always make a splash in the beginning of the season, but after four weeks their schemes will get figured out by other teams and the contenders and pretenders will separate. Last night, the 4-0 Cardinals lost their first game of the season to the Rams 17-3. The Cards gave up nine sacks on the night. On paper, Arizona is a 4-1 team with its only loss coming on the road against a feisty rival. In reality, the Cardinals are a 4-1 team that is very flawed. They can't block a sole in pass protection. Kevin Kolb was scared to death when he dropped back last night. If, or when, he goes down, there is nothing John Skelton will be able to do as well. Their offensive line is a major problem and it is going to dampen their hopes of a playoff run this year. They might be 4-1 right now, but it wouldn't surprise me if they are 4-4 or 5-4 in a month. That is what happens. Teams figure out your schemes, your weaknesses and everyone goes to work on it in preparation to beat you. October is when those changes start to happen. Last night was the perfect example.

Onto the picks......
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 26-33-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


Atlanta (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Falcons pulled one out late last week at home against Carolina. They are flying with a 4-0 record right now. The Skins got a great comeback win late last week at Tampa Bay behind the arms and legs of Robert Griffin III. This game is really, really tricky. I'm tempted to pick the Redskins, but I like the matchup of Atlanta's offense versus Washington's defense too much.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Philly: At 1-2, the Steelers need a win badly. They will get it at home this week. There is no way the Steelers are headed for a 1-3 start to 2012. The Eagles won another close game last week at home against the Giants, but they won't pull it out this week. Look for a close game, but Pittsburgh puts it away late.

Green Bay (-7) over INDY: Distractions can be very tough to deal with in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Colts faced a major distraction this week when they found out that Head Coach Chuck Pagano will miss most of the season because he was diagnosed with Leukemia. That is a really tough thing for the Colts to deal with. The Packers got a must needed win at home last week against the Saints, and they are the better team. You are giving up a touchdown on the road, but take the Packers over the Colts.

NY GIANTS (-8) over Cleveland: The Giants lost a really tough game to Philly last week. The Browns were valiant in defeat against the Ravens last Thursday. This has the potential of being a closer game that advertised, but the G-Men are simply a lot better than the Browns. Take the Giants and lay the points.

Tennessee (+6) over MINNESOTA: Everyone is starting to jump on the Vikings bandwagon with their surprising 3-1 start. Christian Ponder has been impressive too, but I'm not totally sold on handing the Vikings the 2012 sleeper status just yet. Matt Hasselback replaces an injured Jake Locker for the Titans, and that might actually jumpstart their offense. The Titans pull a mini-upset in Minnesota on Sunday.

Miami (+5) over CINCY: The Bengals are a good team, but I'm still not sold on them. I have to see them do it consistently against the Steelers and the Ravens. The Dolphins lost their last two games in overtime, and they very well could be 3-1 right now. This might be a ballsy pick, but I'm taking the Dolphins on the road this week. This is the upset special of the week: Miami wins 17-14.

Baltimore (-6) over KANSAS CITY: I have been wrong with the Chiefs all year long. Last week, I thought they were a lock at home, and they turned the ball over three times in the first quarter. They were down 20-0 to the Chargers before you even blinked. I know the Chiefs are due for a home win, but do you trust Matt Cassel at this point? When your head coach says that Brady Quinn could see some playing time this week, then you can't be too pumped up if your a Chiefs fan. Although the Ravens can be shaky on the road as favorites, take them this week.

CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle: The Panthers should have won their game at Atlanta last week. They played really well. I think Cam Newton comes out and plays great this week. The problem with the Panthers might be that Ron Rivera isn't a good Head Coach right now. Regardless, look for the Panthers to get to 2-3 and look for a big day out of Newton.

Chicago (-6) over JACKSONVILLE: Blaine Gabbert against the Bears defense is a pretty bad matchup for Jaguars fans. The Bears will roll into Florida and take care of business and roll out of there with a 4-1 record.

SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over Buffalo: This is a high spread, and I was thinking about taking the Bills, but then you look at the matchup and think about this: Ryan Fitzpatrick has to go toe-to-toe with that 49ers defense. That will be really tough for the Bills to overcome. Plus, throw in the East Coast to West Coast travel scenario, and the Bills are in for a long afternoon.

San Diego (+4) over NEW ORLEANS: The Sunday Night game is an interesting one. The Saints are 0-4, and everyone wants to talk about Drew Brees possibly breaking the record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass. Who the hell cares about that record when the Saints are 0-4? The Chargers come in at 3-1 on the heels of their beatdown against the Chiefs last week. They will handle their business and send the Saints packing to 0-5.

NY JETS (+8) over Houston: The Jets 34-0 defeat at the hands of the 49ers was very tough to watch even if you weren't a Jet fan. Then, the news came down this week that Santonio Holmes is going to be out for the season, and Woody Johnson might pressure Rex Ryan to play Tim Tebow at quarterback soon. In the NFL, things are as bad as they seem sometimes. The Jets have looked pretty bad at times the last two weeks, but it can't get any worse than last week. The Texans come to town on MNF, and everyone expects the Jets to get killed. I beg to differ. Usually, a team will respond the next week after a really bad performance the week before. That is what I expect out of the Jets this week. They probably won't win, but they will keep it closer than people think.

NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Denver: The Manning-Brady rivalry resumes this Sunday in Foxborough. What scene it will be up there as the Broncos take on the Pats in a really crucial game for both teams. I am sure CBS was hoping both teams would be undefeated coming into this game, but they find themselves each at 2-2. This should be a very interesting game, but here is why I think the Broncos will have a tough time winning this one: How are they going to defend Rob Gronkowski? The Broncos defense played well at home last week against the Raiders, but Tom Brady and the Patriots are a different animal. I just don't see anyone being able to slow Gronk down over the middle. Plus, I am worried about the Pats wearing down Denver's front seven in the run game. New England has been able to run the ball really well this year. Denver will be able to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but no one does a better job of scheming, game-planning, and disguising against Peyton Manning than Bill Belichick. Expect some fireworks early, but the Patriots will put it away in the fourth quarter. In any event, it will one hell of a scene and it will be fun to watch.

Final Score: Pats-38 Broncos-24