Divisional Round Picks

We set the stage for the Broncos and Ravens in a separate post, but it is time to look at the other three Divisional Playoff games for this weekend. Divisional weekend is always special because the top seeds in each conference get into playoff action, and it is the last great weekend of football for the year. Usually, at least one top four team gets upset in this round, so the Broncos, Patriots, Falcons and 49ers must be on high alert. Last weekend's games were not the greatest, but I have a feeling that this weekend will produce some great games, high drama, and certainly some surprises. Onto the games in the Divisional Playoffs........

Last Week's Playoff Record: 3-1
Overall Playoff Record: 3-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

(3) Green Bay at (6) San Francisco
A Case for the Packers: If the Packers can somehow protect Aaron Rodgers in this game, then there is a chance that Rodgers goes off and simply takes the game over and wins it himself. He is probably the best player on the field for both teams, and he has proven to be very dangerous on the road in the playoffs. If he gets it going, then watch out. Plus, the Packers defense is getting healthy at the right time, and they are going to go into this game as the underdog, and I think they will play fast and loose. Can't you just see them getting after Colin Kaepernick and rattling the young QB making his first playoff start?

A Case for the 49ers: Overall, they are better team, and they are at home. That defense could definitely reek havoc on Rodgers and the Green Bay offensive line. The Niners defense seems to play with a chip on their shoulder, and they must love the fact that they get to prove it again against Rodgers and the Packers offense. Although Kaepernick is a young player, he has played really well since he took over for Alex Smith. Perhaps he doesn't know any better and the moment won't be too big for him. The Niners are going to obviously force the issue with Frank Gore, and if their defense gives them a lead, then it will play right into their hands.

The Pick: Green Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners are the better team, and I could see them just smothering Rodgers all night long, but this game has the feel of a classic. Niners-Packers in the playoffs on a Saturday night in Candlestick. I think this game is close to the end, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Rodgers makes a few big plays down the stretch to pull the upset.
Final Score: Packers-27 Niners-24

(5) Seattle at (1) Atlanta
A Case for the Seahawks: Seattle is one of the best teams in the entire NFL right now. They have the running game with Marshawn Lynch, their defense is very stout, and Russell Wilson just continues to make things happen. They are road tested after their playoff win in Washington last week, and they even overcame adversity after they were down 14-0 in the first quarter. They are the team that no one wants to play right now in the NFC, and they will ride that momentum this week once again. Also, maybe the Falcons are like the Chiefs from the late 1990s: Two times in three years KC had a 13-3 record and homefield advantage (1995 and 1997) and both times they lost their first playoff game in the Divisional Playoffs to Indy and Denver. Maybe the Falcons will crumble under that pressure like those Chiefs teams did back then.

A Case for the Falcons: The Falcons have the most pressure to win a playoff game that I can remember in recent memory. Also, they are the #1 seed in the NFC, and they are playing at home. Everything is riding on this game for Mike Smith, Matt Ryan, and that entire Falcons organization. They simply can't lose this game. Also, a lot of people around the NFL are picking the Seahawks in this game, and the Falcons can really use that to their advantage. How many 13-3 teams are only 2.5 favorites at home in their first playoff game? You could just see the Falcons coming out hot, getting an early lead, and letting the crowd in the Georgia Dome will them to a victory.

The Pick: ATLANTA(-2.5) over Seattle: This is definitely a game that Seattle can win, but I have a feeling that the Falcons will play great from the very beginning and never look back. They need this game badly, and I think they will get it.
Final Score: Falcons-26 Seattle-20

(3) Houston at (2) New England:
A Case for the Texans: They got so thoroughly destroyed by the Patriots a month ago in Foxborough that it can't get any worse for them in this game. Maybe they just needed to get the monkey off their back with their win over the Bengals last weekend. Now, they get to come into New England and play with some confidence and try to prove that they are the same team that steamrolled to a 11-1 start this year. If they can stabilize the game early, weather the storm by the Patriots offense, and get Arian Foster going in the run game, then they have a chance. Remember in 2010 when the Patriots killed the Jets in December at home, then got upset by them in the Divisional Playoffs a month later? The Texans can use that as motivation in this one.

A Case for the Patriots: The Texans are not playing the way that they played early in the year, and the Patriots are the better team. The Pats finally get Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez together again healthy, and their offense is such a different animal when those two are full speed. Can't you just see a repeat of their prior meeting a month ago? I can just envision the Pats taking an early lead, getting after Matt Schaub because the Texans are forced to throw the ball every down, and CBS showing about 1,000 shots of Tom Brady pumping his fist emphatically after every touchdown throw.

The Pick: NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Houston: The Patriots are rested and ready for this game, and I bet they were a little excited knowing that they are getting the Texans here instead of the Ravens. I just can't see the Patriots coming out and laying an egg in this one.
Final Score: Patriots-34 Houston-17