NFL 2012- A Look Back

One of my favorite things to write about is the predictions for the upcoming NFL season. I spend all summer trying to pick sleeper teams, figure out who is going to disappoint, and what teams will make a big run. I also love to take time after the season is over and look back at what I predicted and see how close I was or how far off my predictions were. There are a couple of things to look at when breaking down my predictions for 2012. First, this season was very different in a sense that there was not as much craziness and unpredictability as there has been in the past. 8 out of 12 teams returned to the playoffs from 2011. That is the highest number of returning playoff teams since the NFL realigned in 2002. 3 out of 4 teams returned to the AFC and NFC Championship games. That is very unusual in today’s NFL. In the AFC, the same 4 teams were in the divisional round from the year before. The NFL in 2012 was a lot like the NFL in 2011, and that hasn’t been the trend. My picks for the season were a little risky, and as a result of the year being very ordinary, a lot of my predictions crashed and burned. Let’s start with the NFC and see how I fared with my 2012 prognostications…

NFC EAST

1-Dallas (11-5)

2-Philly (10-6) WC

3-NY Giants (10-6) WC

4-Washington (8-8)

Footnotes:

-The Cowboys were in the hunt for the division title up until their Week 17 loss at Washington, so I was pretty close to getting this pick right. Obviously, Dallas lost the division and didn’t even get a wild card.

-The Eagles simply crashed and burned and finished 4-12 and in last place. I didn’t see that coming, and I thought the Eagles would have bounced back.

-The Giants finished 9-7 and just missed out on the playoffs. I was on the fence with them all summer, but I figured they would get in as a wild card. I just missed this pick.

-Give me credit for predicting that Washington would finish 8-8, but I just didn’t have the guts to pick them for the playoffs. They finished 10-6 and won the division, so I missed out on that pick.

NFC NORTH

1-Green Bay (11-5)

2-Chicago (9-7)

3-Detroit (8-8)

4-Minnesota (4-12)

Footnotes:

-I had GB winning the division and they did with a 12-4 record.

-I also nailed the Bears pick. The Bears finished 10-6, but missed the playoffs, so that prediction worked out well for me. I just thought too many people were overhyping the Bears before the season.

-I was correct on predicting that Detroit would have a down year and miss the playoffs, but they actually finished 4-12 instead of 8-8. I didn’t expect them to be that bad.

The Vikings completely shocked me. I thought they would be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they shocked everyone by going 10-6 and making the playoffs. Some teams just come out of nowhere, and the Vikings were one of those teams this year.

NFC SOUTH

1-Carolina (9-7)

2-Atlanta (8-8)

3-New Orleans (8-8)

4-Tampa Bay (8-8)

Footnotes:

-I really like Carolina going into the season, but I remember being worried because so many people started to pick them as a sleeper team. They just got off to a bad start and finished 7-9. Maybe I was a year off with them.

-I was surprised Atlanta was that good in 2012. They won the division and finished 13-3. I thought they would take a step back in 2012, but they proved me to be dead wrong.

-I nailed the Saints pick, and I would like to pat myself on the back for that one. I knew the Saints were going to struggle without Sean Payton. I couldn’t believe how many people still thought they were going to be really good in 2012.

-I pretty much nailed the Bucs pick too. Tampa ended up finished 7-9, and I really thought they would be much improved in year one under Greg Schiano.

NFC WEST

1-SF (9-7)

2-St.Louis (8-8)

3-Seattle (6-10)

4-Arizona (3-13)

Footnotes:

-I correctly picked San Francisco to win the West, but I only had them winning 9 games. I thought they would take a little step back in 2012. They finished 11-4-1. Obviously, I couldn’t see the move from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick either.

-I just knew the Rams would be much improved under Jeff Fisher. They finished 7-8-1, so I really did a nice job with this pick.

-I got the Seahawks totally wrong. I knew it too. Seattle finished 11-5. Before the season, I was concerned about Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson. Obviously, Wilson proved me wrong once he got the starting job at the end of the summer.

-I nailed the Arizona pick. They started off 4-0, and they finished 5-11. I knew that they were going to be really bad this season.

*MY 2012 NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

1-Green Bay

2-Dallas

3-San Francisco

4-Carolina

5-Philly-WC

6-NY Giants-WC

Wild Card Weekend

6-NY Giants over 3-SF

5-Philly over 4-Carolina

Divisional Round

1-GB over 6-NY Giants

5-Philly over 2-Dallas

NFC Championship

1-Green Bay over 5-Philly

Footnotes:

-I only predicted 2 out of the 6 NFC playoff teams (GB and SF)

-I had GB winning the NFC title, but they fell short and lost in the Divisional Round.

-I had SF losing their first playoff game at home, but they exceeded my expectations and made it to the Super Bowl.

-Choosing Philly to make the NFC Championship was a disaster because they went 4-12 and imploded during the season.

2012 AFC Predictions

AFC EAST

1-New England (11-5)

2-Buffalo (9-7) WC

3-NY Jets (8-8)

4-Miami (5-11)

Footnotes:

-I got the Patriots pick right which really isn’t that big of a deal because the Pats are a lock to win the division every year. I was a game off though because they finished 12-4.

-The Bills really crashed and burned this year, and I totally got crushed with this pick. I had them making the playoffs as a wild card, but they went 6-10, and they never really recovered from their opening game loss to the Jets.

-I had the Jets missing the playoffs, so I was right about their fate in 2012, but they actually went 6-10, so they were a little worse than I originally thought.

-Miami was a bit of a surprise. I thought they would struggle all year, but they definitely played better and exceeded expectations. They finished 7-9, and were in the thick of the wild card hunt for most of the season. I certainly didn’t see that coming.

AFC NORTH

1-    Pittsburgh (11-5)

2-    Baltimore (8-8)

3-    Cincy (7-9)

4- Cleveland (5-11)

Footnotes:

-I really got this division wrong. The Steelers finished at 8-8. It looked like they were in line to get the wild card spot near the end, but they suffered some bad losses to Dallas and Cincy and that sealed their fate.

-I really thought the Ravens were going to take a step back this year. I had them missing the playoffs, and when you look at their season it almost went down that way. They were an unimpressive 9-2, then they lost three straight and were 9-5. They righted the ship to finish 10-6, but Pittsburgh fell apart which aided them to the division title. Sometimes you gamble with these predictions, and the Ravens going on to win the Super Bowl make me look silly.

-I was shocked the Bengals made the playoffs once again. They finished 10-6, and I was totally surprised that they were able to get back into the playoffs two years in a row. I had them at 7-9, and I was feeling very confident in my pick when they were 3-5 at the halfway point of the season. They were able to turn it around and go 10-6 and get in. I didn’t see that coming at all.

-I did nail the Browns pick. They finished 5-11 and in last place once again.

AFC SOUTH

1-Tennessee (9-7)

2-Houston (8-8)

3-Indy (8-8)

4-Jacksonville (2-14)

Footnotes:

-You have to take risks and make bold predictions before the season, and this is another one that fell flat on my face. The Titans didn’t respond all season long, and they finished a dismal 6-10. I really thought they had the capability of being a playoff type team, but they just didn’t have it this year.

-I missed the Texans pick because I thought they were getting too much hype in the preseason. Everyone was picking them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so I decided to go the other way. I gambled and lost because they finished the season at 12-4 and won the division. Another bold prediction that I missed, but I take credit for having the guts to give it a shot.

-I am very proud of my Indy pick to go 8-8. I know they were better and went 11-5 and made the playoffs, but I can take credit for thinking that they were going to be better than everyone had predicted before the season. During the summer, I had them in the playoffs for awhile, but I changed it at the end and took them out. I knew I should have kept them in, but I just wasn’t so sure if they would make it. While everyone else had them winning no more than five games, I had them at 8-8 and being a lot better than the expectations.

-I did nail the Jacksonville pick and they finished 2-14. No gloating on that one because you could just see that they were going to be awful.

AFC WEST

1-San Diego (10-6)

2-Dever (10-6) WC

-Kansas City (8-8)

4-Oakland (7-9)

Footnotes:

-I thought this division would be a lot more competitive in 2012, but it wasn’t at all.

-I figured San Diego and Philip Rivers would find a way back into the playoffs, but it just didn’t work out for them this year. They finished 7-9, and the real turning point in their season was when they blew the 24 point lead to Denver at home on Monday Night Football in Week 6.

-I correctly predicted that Denver would make the playoffs, but I didn’t want to jinx them, so I had them getting in as a wild card. I just knew that if Peyton Manning was healthy, then the Broncos were going to be a playoff team. Now, I didn’t expect Manning to be as good as he was, and I didn’t think the team would finish at 13-3, but overall I think I had a good handle on Denver before the season started. Also, I was shocked at how many people doubted Manning and picked against the Broncos in the preseason.

-The Chiefs were very high on a lot of experts lists to win the AFC West, but I didn’t buy it at all. I had them finishing 8-8, and they actually were much worse. They finished 2-14, and they had just a disastrous season from start to finish.

-The Raiders finished at 4-12, and they also had a horrible season throughout. I figured they would struggle at some points, but they were much worse than I had predicted.

*MY AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

1-New England

2-Pittsburgh

3-San Diego

4-Tennessee

5-Denver WC

6-Buffalo WC

Wild Card Weekend

3-SD over 6-Buffalo

5-Denver over 4-Tennessee

Divisional Round

1-NE over 5-Denver

2-Pitt over 3-SD

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

1-NE over 2-Pitt

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION
New England over Green Bay

Footnotes:

-I only predicted 2 out of the 6 AFC Playoff teams (Denver and New England)

-The Steelers had a chance, but fell apart near the end of the season.

-Buffalo, Tennessee, and San Diego all finished with losing records, so those three picks really backfired on me.

-I had Denver going out in the Divisional Round which actually happened to them, but at least I had them winning one playoff game instead of losing their first game against Baltimore.

-I correctly predicted New England to return to the AFC Championship Game and win it, but we know that they got there again, but lost to the Ravens.