Week 14 Picks!

75% of the NFL season is done. All that remains of the regular season is the final four weeks. As the season comes to a finish, the playoff picture appears to come into focus. On paper, it begins to look very clear, but in reality it won't finish the way. The way it looks now in the AFC and NFC will be different when the playoff field is set after the games wrap up on December 29th. I can go way back and look many different scenarios where wild and crazy things happened that affected the playoffs down the stretch. Here are three end of the year situations that come into my mind that remind me that nothing is set in stone just yet with four weeks to play. The first one comes from 2008. The Broncos were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8 with three games left to play. Denver needed just one win or a Chargers loss to win the AFC West and eliminate SD from the playoffs. We all remember what happened: Denver lost two in a row, and San Diego won two games on the road, and the Chargers finished off the Broncos with a Week 17 win in San Diego to win the division. I will never count out any team after seeing what happened in '08. The second situation occurred just a year later in 2009. People forget that Denver was 8-4 under Josh McDaniels with four games to go. They were seemingly in the driver's seat for at least a wild card berth. The Jets were 6-6 at that point of the year. Denver lost their last four games which included home losses to Oakland and Kansas City, and the Jets won three out of their last four games to get in the playoffs. The Jets were left for dead after 12 games, but Denver couldn't close it out, and the Jets swooped in and made the playoffs. The third situation was last year. This time it involved teams already in the playoffs. Houston was 11-1 after 12 games, and they seemed like a lock for the #1 seed in the AFC. New England and Denver were both 9-3, and it looked like Denver was going to end up as the #3 seed and no bye in the first round because they lost to both the Pats and Texans during the season. What happened next was unexpected. New England won three out of their last four games, but their one loss was at home to a good Niners team, and the Patriots finished 12-4. Houston lost three out of their last four games. One of those games they lost was at home to Minnesota, and they lost their Week 17 game to the streaking Colts on the road. Denver won their last four games, and the Broncos finished 13-3 and the #1 seed, while the Pats and Texans both finished 12-4 and ended up the 2 and 3 seeds respectively. Recent history has shown that although there are only four games left, there is a lot of decide and the playoff picture is not what it appears to be in Week 14. Onto the picks for Week 14....

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 96-88-10
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Kansas City (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Chiefs have lost three games in a row, but they still are in good shape to get the #5 seed in the AFC. The one thing that came out of those three loses was that Alex Smith played well. That bodes well for them down the stretch. Take KC and the points on the road. I would be shocked if they lose this game.

BALTIMORE (-5) over Minnesota: If this game was in Minnesota, then I would be all over the Vikings. Give the Vikes credit for this gutty win over the Bears last week. At 6-6, the Ravens are in control of the #6 seed in the AFC, but their schedule gets tough after this week. They go to Detroit, host New England, and travel to Cincy to finish the season. They need this game badly, and they will get it.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Cleveland: Easiest game on the board to pick this week. The Browns don’t even know who is going to start because Brandon Weeden might miss the game with a concussion. The Browns defense will be valiant for a while, but the Pats and Tom Brady will grind them out and win convincingly.

GREEN BAY (Pick) over Atlanta: It looks like Aaron Rodgers won’t play again this week, and the Packers are floundering at 5-6-1. If they can just win this game, then their faint playoff hopes could be alive if they get Rodgers back for the final three games. I’ll take them here to win a close one in frigid Lambeau.

NY JETS (-2) over Oakland: Do you really trust Geno Smith and that Jet offense right now? There is no way you can at this point. The Raiders aren’t any good, but I have liked some of the things I have seen out of Matt McGloin, and they can be feisty enough to win this game outright on the road. With that said, I do think the Jets will find a way to win this game. This might be ugly, but the Jets will win a close game.

Indianapolis (+7) over CINCINNATI: Las Vegas has really been down on the Colts the last few weeks, but I think this line is too high here. Can’t you see Andrew Luck driving the Colts for a last minute touchdown to send this game to overtime? I can. By the way, this matchup of two 8-4 teams will have tremendous impact on the playoff picture in the AFC. The winner has the inside track on the #3 seed.

Detroit (+3) over PHILLY: I have to admit I wasn’t a big fan of Nick Foles, but his performance the last few weeks has been quite remarkable. At 7-5, the Eagles are in the thick of the NFC playoff race, and the Lions come to Philly at 7-5 and leading the NFC North. This is a huge game, and a great game in the early window. I have a feeling that the Lions will find a way to win this game on the road. I look for a little magic from Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson once again. This game will probably be close because basically of the Lions games have been close this year.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Miami: The Steelers can navigate their way into the playoffs at 8-8 with some help from the Dolphins and Ravens. That first step starts with a win over the Dolphins this week. This is another game to watch this week because if Miami wins, then they can really have a legitimate shot and getting the last wild card in the AFC. A Steeler win gives them some hope. Look for Pittsburgh to win a close one at home.

TAMPA BAY (-2) over Buffalo: Meaningless game at this point. Take the Bucs at home.

St. Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: I have been riding the Cardinals all year long, so this is a tough one for me, but I think the Rams are a good play here. At 7-5, the Cards still have a lot to play for, but they get tripped up this week by the Rams.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New York Giants: This is the second easiest game of the week for me to pick. The Giants aren’t a good team at all, and they make a cross-country trip to San Diego to take on the 5-7 Chargers. I think the Chargers roll and keep their playoff hopes alive.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2) over Seattle: This could be a letdown game for Seattle. After their convincing win over the Saints on Monday Night Football, they have pretty much locked in the #1 seed in the NFC. They could afford to lose this game on the road, and it wouldn’t kill their homefield hopes. Take the Niners at home who need the game more.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina: I know the Panthers are really good on defense, and they have won eight in a row, but this would be a very difficult task for them to go into New Orleans and win outright. It might be a good game into the fourth quarter, but I can’t see the Saints losing to them at home.

Dallas (+1) over CHICAGO: Can you trust the Cowboys on the road? They played well enough to beat the Giants two weeks ago on the road, but they have to do it again on Monday Night Football. This game will be tough, but I think it will be a statement game for the Cowboys. The Bears blew an awful game at Minnesota last week, and I think they are on their playoff lifeline. Take the Cowboys as underdogs on the road.

Tennessee (+12) over DENVER: Here is the problem with this game for the Broncos: It is going to be freezing in Denver on Sunday. The high for the game might only be something like 15 degrees. That is a bad combination for Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. They just aren’t equipped to play in such cold weather. I hate to say it, but with conditions like that the Broncos could be in some trouble against an unfamiliar opponent.

Final Score: Titans-27 Broncos-24