Broncos Head to Arrowhead and Week 12 Picks!

The Broncos head to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night for a matchup with the Chiefs. How big is this game? Well, Denver is 8-3 and the Chiefs are 7-4. A Broncos win would give them a two-game lead on the Chiefs and they would own the tiebreaker due to a sweep of the season series. A Chiefs win ties them with the Broncos for first place in the AFC West, and the Chiefs would have the advantage down the stretch with the schedule. If the Chiefs were to beat the Cardinals in Arizona the next week, then they would have a good chance of winning the division. This game is very important for the Broncos because they have tough road tests in back-to-back weeks on December 14th at the Chargers and Monday night December 22nd at the Bengals. A Broncos win would certainly help them in their chances for locking up a fourth straight AFC West crown. One thing that I was looking at in preparation for this game was the fact that Denver always seems to play at Kansas City after November 1st-especially in crucial years. Here is a list of such games and the results:

1992-Loss (Dan Reeves last game as Denver head coach and Denver was eliminated from the playoff race on the last day of the season)

1997- Loss (Pete Stoyanovich nails a 54-yarder at the gun to win it)

1998-Win (The Chiefs were bad, but the Broncos cruised with Elway injured and Bubby Brister starting)

2000- Loss (Terrible loss in freezing temperatures killed Denver's chances to win the West and they had to settle for a Wild Card berth instead)

2001-Loss (An awful overtime loss effectively ended Denver's playoff hopes)

2004-Loss (Denver still made the playoffs but this game but their hopes in serious doubt because they no longer controlled their own destiny)

2005-Loss (A tough loss, but the Broncos still rebounded to win the division)

2006- Loss (First ever Thanksgiving night game was the end of the Jake Plummer era in Denver)

2009-Win (Broncos won in a rout, but KC got revenge in final game of season at Mile High)

2011-Win (Tebow Time struck again)

2012-Win (Peyton Manning and the Broncos gutted out a 17-9 win over a hapless Chiefs squad)

2013-Win (Manning's best game as a Bronco as Denver rallied from down 21-7 to win 35-28)

2014-????

KANSAS CITY (+2) over Denver: I think a few things are going against Denver is this game. One, the Broncos are banged up on defense. Aqib Talib, Kayvon Webster, and Brandon Marshall are all hurt. It will be tough to deal with Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs with a beat up defense. Second, we know how the Broncos have struggled on the road, and this is the loudest crowd they will face. Third, the Chiefs will be emotional with the news of Eric Berry possibly having a cancerous mass in his chest. It just seems like too much to overcome for the Broncos

Final Score: Chiefs-27 Broncos-17

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 13:


Last Week's Record: 10-5
Overall Record: 91-79-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


Washington (+10) over INDY: The Colts will cruise, but I will take a shot at a late backdoor cover.

HOUSTON (-5) over Tennessee: Take the Texans and J.J. Watt at home to abuse Zach Mettenberger and the Titans.

BUFFALO (-2) over Cleveland: The Bills ride the emotion of playing in front of their home fans after last week's epic snowstorm.

San Diego (+6) over BALTIMORE: The game of the day in the AFC. The Chargers keep it close and the Ravens win it late

New York Giants (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: Tom Coughlin gets revenge on his old team.

Cincy (-3) over TAMPA BAY: The Bengals keep rolling over the crappy teams.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Oakland: The Rams take care of business at home.

New Orleans (+5) over PITTSBURGH: You really can't trust the Saints right now, but I think they pull the upset here on the road. Why? Because no one is giving them a chance and the Steelers are very susceptible at home against below average teams.

Carolina (+3) over MINNESOTA: I think the Panthers put it together and find a way to win this game.

Arizona (-2) over ATLANTA: You can't trust the Falcons or Mike Smith at this point. Take the better team on the road.

New England (+3) over GREEN BAY: Great, great game on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady going head-to-head. The Pats in Lambeau on Thanksgiving weekend. Awesome matchup and I will take the Patriots until they lose.

Miami (-6) over NY JETS: Easy pick here. The Jets are a nightmare and go back to Geno Smith at QB. The Dolphins are 6-5 and have legitimate playoff hopes, and they won't mess around here in this spot.

Thanksgiving Tripleheader Picks!

What a Thanksgiving slate of games this year! Old-school NFC North rivalry with the 5-6 Bears and the 7-4 Lions squaring off in the early game, a huge NFC East battle between two 8-3 teams with Philly heading to Dallas, and the nightcap is a rematch of last year's NFC Championship with 7-4 Seattle traveling to 7-4 San Francisco. All meaningful games with playoff implications on the line in each one. It should be a fun turkey day with a lot of football to take in. Here are my Thanksgiving picks...

DETROIT (-7) over Chicago: I shouldn't  trust Jay Cutler and Marc Trestman on the road on three days rest. The Lions have lost two in a row, and they desperately need this game. The problem with the Lions is their offense. With Calvin Johnson hobbled all year, they just can't score a lot of points. Look for the Lions to win, and I think they do just enough to cover the spread.

DALLAS (-3) over Philly: Tough game to call, but I'm going with the Cowboys for one reason: Homfield and a short week. Yes, the Cowboys got screwed by playing the Sunday night game at the Meadowlands and then playing on Thanksgiving. But you have to like the Cowboys here and I still don't trust Mark Sanchez.

SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Seattle: Another tough game to call, but I'll take the 49ers. I figure this game comes down to the end and Colin Kapernick makes one more play than Russel Wilson to win it late.

Broncos Rally Past Dolphins Get to 8-3

There was some doubt in Mile High yesterday as the Broncos faced deficits of 14-3, 21-10, and 28-17 at various points in the game to Miami. It looked like it wasn’t going to be their day, and they would suffer a crushing loss at home. But as doubt started to seep in, the Broncos rallied and pulled off a stunning comeback to defeat the Dolphins 39-36 in a huge game for both teams as far as the playoffs is concerned. The game had a real playoff feel to it, and it was one of the most impressive performances of the season for the Broncos. To battle back like that was just a tremendous compliment to their team, and it was a win that could really serve as a big moment for them going forward. Here are my thoughts and observations on the win…

1)    You had to worry about Denver’s defense after the first half. The Dolphins were able to do anything they wanted. They were running the ball effectively, and Ryan Tannehill was picking them apart. Three touchdown drives in the first half really put Denver in a hole. I’m not so sure that Jack Del Rio is the greatest defensive coordinator. I have been puzzled by him the last few weeks. At least Denver’s defense was able to rebound and play better in the second half because that first half was really bad.

2)    I love the Denver gameplan. They came out with a focus to run the ball, and they did just that. Give the offensive line credit because they controlled the line of scrimmage all day long. C.J. Anderson was great. He had 167 yards on 27 carries, and it seemed like everytime he ran the ball, he was falling forward for positive yardage. It was a great performance by the offensive line and the running game. Finally, we had that type of game this season!

3)    A lot of people texted me saying that Manning was off, but outside of missing Emmanuel Sanders on a couple of deep throws, I thought Manning was really solid. Being able to run the ball that well, will make Manning even more effective. When he needed to throw and spread the Dolphins out, he was great. He finished 28 for 35 for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. I’ll get to his drive before the half in a minute.

4)    Down 21-10, Denver needed a score before the half because they were getting the ball to start the second half. Manning orchestrated a beautiful drive, and finished the drive off with a 14 yard laser to Demaryius Thomas to make it 21-17. The key play was a big 35 yard pass to Sanders on a 3^rd and 20 to keep the drive alive. Manning was awesome on that drive, and that changed the game.

5)    After driving down the field to start the 3^rd quarter, Manning missed a wide open Wes Welker on 3^rd and goal. It was very un-Manning like to miss Welker there, and naturally Brandon McManus missed a 33 yard field goal and the Broncos were still trailing 21-17. The McManus experiment is over and it needs to end soon. He is going to kill us going forward. They need to find a new kicker. I have been saying this for a month (On Tuesday, the Broncos cut McManus and signed former Bucs kicker Connor Barth.)

6)     The Isaiah Burse fumble and Dolphins ensuing touchdown to make it 28-17 was a moment where you felt the Broncos were going to lose this game.

      7)    Great drive by Manning to cut it to 28-25. Great play call to Thomas for the touchdown. I liked the decision by Fox to go for 2 to cut it to 28-25 with 14 minutes left in the game. Even though Phil Simms didn’t like it, I thought it was the right choice.

8)    The Broncos got a big stop by their defense and forced a punt on the next drive. That drive was huge and that was the key stop that they needed.

9)    What a  championship drive by the offense and great play call to Anderson, who runs for a TD untouched to give Denver first lead of the game at 32-28.

10) Chris Harris provided blanket coverage to force a tough throw by Tannehill, which T.J. Ward picked off and returns inside the 10. That is why John Elway invested in his defense this offseason, and that is the turnover that a great defense forces late in games. Harris also proves how he is our best corner each and every week/

11)  It was nice to see Wes Welker get a touchdown on a sweet pick play with Manning to make it 39-28. Maybe we can get Welker going here in the last five games.

12) Denver’s defense couldn’t get a stop on the next Miami drive and the lead was cut to 39-36. An onside kick was recovered by Denver and the game was over. Too many times though the Broncos defense lets teams back into the game late. This game should have not come down to an onside kick. It still bothers me that they let teams drive down to make this games even closer at the end. 

13) Huge, huge win. It was a playoff type atmosphere, and a lot of breaks went against Denver. They had a bad start, trailed by 11 heading into 4^th quarter, turnovers and missed field goals looked to doom them in the second half, and they rallied back to pick up the win. Statement game to say the least

14) Great gamplan by offense. They were able to pick up for the defense who had a really bad day. The offensive line got killed by the media all week, and they just ran the ball down the Dolphins throats. It set up the play-action game, and when Manning needed to be Manning he did what he usually does.

15) Denver is now 8-3 and heading to Arrowhead for showdown with Chiefs. This win gives them some breathing room in the division. Hopefully, there is some confidence back for the Broncos and that offensive line. It will be a tough game on Sunday Night, but the Broncos definitely have what it takes to take down the Chiefs in KC.

Week 12 Picks!

All week all the talk was about how the sky is falling in Denver, and how the Chiefs are poised to win the AFC West from the Broncos. Yes, there is a lot of football left to play, and the Broncos have some serious issues. An offensive line that has been very inconsistent all year is now shuffling the unit and trying to find the right combination of players for the stretch run. That spotty O-Line play has led to some unusual erratic play from Peyton Manning and a running game that is virtually nonexistent. Throw in the injuries to Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball, and Julius Thomas, and it looks like the Broncos are in trouble. And they are in trouble to a certain extent. Are they the same team as last year? No way. Are there some concerns that this team could beat a quality opponent on the road? Yes, but we still have Peyton Manning and we still have 6 games to figure this out. There is still time to sort out these problems and get back on track towards the Super Bowl. Everyone just needs to relax a little bit and focus on the next game. Besides, we already got some help with the Raiders knocking off the Chiefs on Thursday Night. Here are the picks for Week 12....

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Overall Record: 81-74-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Cleveland (+3) over ATLANTA: Typically, the Browns looked awful last week at home against the Texans. Now, they head to 4-6 Atlanta, who finds themselves in the thick of the NFC South race. I think the Browns will rebound this week and get the win on the road to get them to 7-4.

Tennessee (+12) over PHILLY: The Eagles will win this game, but I look for the Titans to keep it closer than the line. Too many points to give the Eagles as they still try to figure out how effective Mark Sanchez will be as their quarterback.

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Detroit: The Lions are in 1st place in the NFC North, and they have one of the league's best defenses. This has all the makings of a big win on the road right? Not so fast. I see the Pats just doing their thing and blowing the doors off Detroit. Look for a big day from Tom Brady and that offense.

MINNESOTA (+9) over Green Bay: Now that the Vikings are playing outdoors, I can see that the weather could slow down Aaron Rodgers and that offense. I think the Packers will win, but look for the Vikings to keep it close.

INDY (-13) over Jacksonville: This game will not be close at all, and I think this is the lock of the week. The Colts will roll in this one at home. The Colts feast on beating the crummy teams on their schedule.

Cincy (+2) over HOUSTON: I don't see why the Texans are favored here. I know they are at home, but do you really have faith in Ryan Mallet after 1 week? Cincy got a big win on the road at New Orleans last week, so I look for them to continue that this week on the road in Houston.

CHICAGO (-5) over Tampa Bay: The Lovie Smith Bowl! The 2-8 Bucs and the 4-6 Bears! Anyway, I'm taking the Bears at home for selfish reasons because I want them to be 5-6 heading into Detroit on Thanksgiving to give that game a little more meaning, so the Bears are the pick for me.

SEATTLE (-7) over Arizona: The Cards are still the story in the NFC at 9-1, but this feels like a game where the Seahawks rise up and make a statement like "Hey, don't forget about us. We are the defending Super Bowl Champs!" Look for a rout in Seattle.

SAN DIEGO (-5) over St. Louis: Has any team lost all their bandwagon supporters like the Chargers have the past few weeks? When they were 5-1, they were considered a Super Bowl contender in the AFC and Phillip Rivers was a surefire MVP candidate. Now, they are 6-4 and everyone has jumped off their bandwagon. I think they take care of business at home to the Rams this week.

SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over Washington: When Jay Gruden comes out and publicly calls out Robert Griffin III, then you know that is a bad sign for a QB and a franchise. The Niners are starting to hit a bit of a stride here at 6-4, and a big win at home over the Skins will get them to 7-4 heading into their big showdown with Seattle on Thanksgiving Night.

NY GIANTS (+4) over Dallas: I have no faith in the Giants, but I'll pick them because this is one of those games where they can basically put everything they have left and try to ruin the Cowboys season on primetime television. I could totally get burned by this, but I am going with a hunch on this one.

New York Jets (+3) over BUFFALO: Only the Bills would have their playoff hopes possibly derailed by a massive snowstorm in Buffalo and force them to play this game in Detroit on Monday night. I'll take the Jets in this one only because their players didn't have to deal with a blizzard, missed practices, snowmobiling to the facility, and relocating to Detroit for the week.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Baltimore: I hate this pick, but I'll take the Saints because I can't see them losing three home games in a row. This has all the makings of a Ravens romp, but I think the Saints will rise up and find a way to get to 5-6.

Miami (+7) over DENVER: This game scares me because of the Dolphins defense. They are really good, and the Broncos obviously have had some struggles on offense lately. This game just scares me and I don't have a good feeling about it at all.

Final Score: Dolphins-24 Broncos-20

Chiefs-Raiders TNF Pick!

OAKLAND (+8) over Kansas City: All of the sudden the Chiefs are the team to beat in the AFC West. After starting 0-2, they are now 7-3 and tied with Denver for 1st place. With a showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs next week in Arrowhead looming, could KC be looking ahead and not focusing on the Raiders? Oakland is 0-10, and I doubt that they will go 0-16, so at some point they have to win a game. Why not shock the world and pull the upset on the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football? I'm taking the Raiders strictly because I need KC to lose, so this pick has no real merit other than the Bronco fan in me hoping the Chiefs stub their toe here.

Broncos Get Blasted by Rams 22-7

Denver’s loss on Sunday at the hands of the 3-6 Rams may have been the low point of the Peyton Manning Era in Denver. When Denver got smoked by Seattle in the Super Bowl, at least it was the Super Bowl, and they got crushed by a really good team. Sunday’s loss was a real eye-opener for numerous reasons. The Broncos got completely outplayed from the get-go, and their road woes continued. I had a sneaky suspicion that the Broncos were in trouble because they haven’t started well on the road all year long. Also, their offensive line continues to be a problem, and that will hurt any team when they hit the road. Sunday’s loss was also brutal because Denver came away banged up. Montee Ball hurt his groin and he is out indefinitely, Emmanuel Sanders suffered a concussion, and Julius Thomas hurt his ankle. It was a bad day to say the least for the Broncos, and it creates some doubt going forward.

Here are my thoughts and observations from the game…

1)    The Broncos again got off to a slow start on offense, and the next thing you knew they were down 13-0. Shaun Hill’s bomb to Kenny Britt gave the Rams the 10-0 lead, and you just knew that this was going to be trouble for Denver.

2)    The Broncos and John Fox can say what they want about the confidence in rookie kicker Brandon McManus but when you go for it on 4^th and 5 in the 1^st quarter that to me tells the story. They have no confidence in McManus! The worst part is that at least with Matt Prater once you got inside the other team’s 40, you were in field goal range. The Broncos 4^th down play failed, and the Rams capitalized on the next play to make it 10-0.

3)    I’m not going to kill the Denver defense for giving up over 100 yards to Tre Mason and giving up 22 points to Shaun Hill. The defense was put into an awful spot time after time during the game. They forced the Rams to kick 5 field goals, and they were able to get some key stops when they needed it. Don’t hang this loss on the defense.

4)    The blame for this loss goes on the coaching staff and the offense. First, our offensive line is still a mess. We can’t run the ball, and now they have problems picking up blitzes and stunts on critical downs. Also, Adam Gase completely abandoned the running game right from the start. I know Denver was down early, but at least try to keep the defense honest. I know he lost some of his weapons due to injury, but Peyton Manning wasn’t sharp at all on Sunday. He did have a sweet touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders for 42 yards to cut the lead to 13-7 in the second quarter, but he threw two awful interceptions into coverage in the second half. He now has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games. That could be very alarming, but all three of those games were on the road. He missed an open Demaryius Thomas on a deep post that would have given Denver a 14-13 lead in the 3^rd quarter. He overthrew him and Thomas would have walked into the endzone if it is a good throw. Manning needs to get back on track a little here.

5)    John Fox’s decision to not call timeouts at the end of the half and give Manning a chance to get the ball back was awful. Even Manning was shaking his head on the sideline. You have to wonder about Fox’s game management at times. It really makes you wonder if you can trust him in these big games. With 2:00 minutes left in the half, Denver had all three timeouts. They stop the Rams on 1st down on a short pass for no gain. On 2^nd down, with 1:16 to play in the half, the Rams run the ball up the middle for a gain of six. Call timeout there! Make them run a play to get the first down on 3^rd down. Fox elects not to do that for some reason, and the Rams let the clock run down and then run the ball on 3^rd down and then Denver finally takes a timeout with 30 seconds left. There wasn’t enough time after the punt and the Broncos just knelt down to end the half. Awful, awful job by Fox and his use of timeouts in that situation.

6)    It was the lowest points scored by the Broncos in the Peyton Manning Era, and it was definitely the low point for them as a franchise in the last three years. It makes you nervous because this team still has 3 really tough road games left on the schedule: at KC, at SD, and at Cincy. Now, they are tied at 7-3 with KC atop the AFC West. This is going to be a dogfight just to win the division. Their offense is not even close to last year, their running game is terrible, their offensive line is a mess, and they are very inconsistent. Throw in the fact that they have no threat in the return game, and their kicker has no confidence from the coaching staff. It is safe to say that there is a lot to be worried about in Denver right now. The Broncos are at a crossroads, and they didn’t face this type of adversity all year last year. After 10 games this year, adversity has hit them square in the face.

7)    With all that said, every team faces tough times during the season. Last year, the Broncos didn’t really have that, but this year they do. As a fan, you can’t think too far ahead. Don’t worry about homefield advantage, seeding, and division titles. Just worry about winning the next game. For the Broncos, that is this Sunday at home against a dangerous Miami Dolphins team. This will not be an easy game at all-especially with the injuries and uncertain statuses of Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. All week you are going to hear how Denver is fading. All week you will hear about the decline of Peyton Manning and all the other flaws that this team has. That doesn’t mean anything as long as they go out and win at home over the Dolphins on Sunday. Get to 8-3 and worry about the next game. That has to be the mindset.

NFL Week 11 Picks!

We are at the midway point of November, and now it is time to start figuring out the potential playoff contenders in the AFC and NFC. We can't use the Yahoo Playoff Generator just yet. That is a tradition to start after Thanksgiving weekend, but we can start to see the playoff picture come into focus a little more. In the AFC, New England, Denver, and Indy are leading their divisions, and there is a log jam in the AFC North with four teams above .500. Miami(6-4), KC(6-3), and San Diego(5-4) remain in the Wild Card hunt as well. Buffalo is teetering at 5-5, and Houston is there as well but at 4-5. You have to take at least 2 teams from the North (Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore or Cleveland), and that leaves the Fish, Chiefs, Chargers, and the other two teams from the North fighting for one spot. It will definitely be fun the last few weeks in the AFC. In the NFC, it is more cut and dry. The Eagles and Cowboys are battling for the NFC East. Someone is going to win the crappy NFC South (Probably the 4-5 Saints), and it looks like it is down to Green Bay and Detroit in the North. In the West, the Cardinals are the surprise leader at 8-1, but they just lost Carson Palmer for the year. Seattle at 6-3, and San Francisco at 5-4 are right there. Whoever loses the races for the division in the North and the East will have to contend with the 49ers and the Seahawks for the last two spots. There will be at least 2 good, marquee teams on the outside looking in come January in the NFC. Onto the picks in Week 11..

Last Week's Record: 6-7
Overall Record: 73-68-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston: Ryan Mallet vs. Brian Hoyer in a key AFC matchup in Week 11. Somewhere, Josh McDaniels is smiling like a proud father. I’m not sold on the Browns, but I like them this week to get to 7-3.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: How bad have the Bears been the last few weeks? Every Denver fan is nodding at how the rest of the NFL is now jumping off the Jay Cutler bandwagon. You have to think the Bears will get the win at home this week because if they don’t, Marc Trestman might be gone by Monday.

GREEN BAY (-4) over Philly: Tough game to call. I think I will go with the Packers at home mainly because I really can’t trust Mark Sanchez just yet.

Seattle (+3) over KANSAS CITY: I saw a lot of people picking the Chiefs at home this week, but I don’t see it. This game will play out with Russell Wilson with the ball in his hands and the game on the line. I think he will pull it out at the end.

CAROLINA (+1) over Atlanta: Welcome to the crappy NFC South! A Panthers win gets them to 4-6-1 and back in the race, while a Falcons win gets them to 4-6 and in the thick of the race. What a shitty division.

Cincy (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: Usually, the Saints are a lock to cover at home, but things are different for the 4-5 Saints this year. I think they will find a way to win, but Cincy will give them everything they can.

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON: There is no way the Redskins should be favored by a touchdown over anyone. The Bucs are bad, but they have played very feisty the last month for Lovie Smith.

San Francisco (-3) over NY GIANTS: How can you take the Giants at home? Watch out for the Niners. Last week's OT win over the Saints got them to 5-4, and they could get going as a result. Too much Colin Kaepernick for a Giants defense that gives up way too many big plays.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Oakland: I can't see the Chargers losing four straight after starting 5-1. They will get going this week at home over the winless Raiders. This game should be over early.

Detroit (+2) over ARIZONA: Drew Stanton will fill in admirably for Carson Palmer, but there is no way he is taking this team to the Super Bowl. Their 8-1 start might help them get into the playoffs even if they stumble down the stretch, but this week will be a tough one for them at home. Look for the Lions to continue their winning ways with another wild win late.

New England (+3) over INDY: Great Sunday Night Football game on NBC. Brady-Luck in an AFC showdown. I was picking the Colts all week, but I have a feeling that the Pats will be up to the task in this game. This seems close either way, but look for New England to thwart Luck late in the game to win it.

Pittsburgh (-5) over TENNESSEE: Awful Monday Night Football game on ESPN. The Titans are just terrible, and now they host the Steelers. The Steelers have this habit of playing shitty against crummy teams and losing. They are 6-4 this year, and two of their losses were to the Bucs and the Jets. I think Mike Tomlin sends that message to his team loud and clear this week. Look for the Steelers to take care of their business on the road over the Titans.

ST. LOUIS (+9.5) over Denver: The Broncos have some real issues on their offensive line. They shuffled it around last week in Oakland. They moved Louis Vasquez to RT, Manny Ramirez to RG, and inserted Will Montgomery to C. It was a decent upgrade, but their line is still not playing to the level that it did last year. Was Zane Beadles that big of a difference for us last year? Anyway, they will be tested by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald and that young defense in St. Louis. The Broncos better be ready up front to protect Peyton Manning. Denver has gotten off to really slow starts in most of their road games this year. I'll give their offense a pass for the slow start in Seattle and New England, but at the Jets and at the Raiders, the offense looked shaky, sluggish, and disjointed at times. It would be nice to see them getting off to a real fast start this week, put up some points early, and let the defense go to work on Shaun Hill. I never have a good feel for the Broncos when they play a weak team on the road, and this game is no exception-especially with the early kickoff.

Final Score: Rams-26 Broncos-24

Dolphins-Bills TNF Pick

MIAMI (-5) over Buffalo: This could be an AFC Wild Card Elimination game on Thursday Night Football. Both teams come into the game at 5-4, and in the crowded AFC playoff picture the difference between 6-4 and 5-5 could be very big. I'll take the Fish at home to win and get themselves into good position in the fight for the playoffs.

Broncos Surge Past Raiders 41-17 in the Black Hole

The Broncos did what they were supposed to do on Sunday: Blow out a team that was winless. It took some time to get going but Denver did what they had to do and took care of the Raiders rather easily 41-17. It didn’t start that way. The Raiders looked energized and ready to pull the upset, while Denver looked sluggish, sloppy, and unmotivated. After being down 10-6 in the second quarter, the Broncos rallied for five straight touchdowns to take a commanding 41-10 lead. It was a good win because the Broncos did what they had to do, but it continues to show that this team is not bullet proof at all. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game…

1)    What an awful start to this game by the Broncos. Peyton Manning gets picked on the second play of the game. That led to a Raiders field goal. Justin Tuck then picked off Manning in the second quarter and that led to a Raiders touchdown and the 10-6 lead. For most of the first half, the Raiders were playing better. They were knocking down Manning’s passes, and they held the Broncos to only two field goals. It really looked like the Raiders were going to possibly pull off the upset.

2)    The game changed on two plays. First, Bradley Roby’s interception of Derek Carr late in the first half set the Broncos up with good field position down 10-6. The second play was a 3^rd and 8 pass from Manning to C.J. Anderson. Anderson took the pass that was destined for a 1 yard gain, broke three tackles, and weaved his way for a 51 yard touchdown. It was the turning point in the game, and one of the biggest plays of the season for the Broncos this year. Anderson had a big day with 90 yards on 13 carries as well.

3)    From there, the Broncos took over. Another key moment was the Broncos got the ball back right before the half and in four plays Manning hits Emmanuel Sanders for a 32 yard touchdown down the sideline to make it 20-10. The whole game completely changed in just a matter of minutes. Finally, the Broncos offense was alive.

4)    The second half was all Broncos. Their defense completely shut down the Raiders offense and Carr. They picked off Carr one more time (T.J. Ward), and the highlight was when Carr was under pressure and he threw it to his own lineman, who caught the ball then proceeded to fumble it. The Broncos recovered deep in Raider territory. That play just summed up the second half of this game.

5)    Four plays later, Manning hit Julius Thomas on a sweet slant/pick play for a 10 yard touchdown and a 27-10 lead.

6)    Manning then hit Thomas again on a play-action fake that caught Charles Woodson out of positions and the play resulted in a 32 yard touchdown on a 4^th and 1 in the 3^rd quarter. It was a sweet play and gave Denver a 34-10.

7)    The next series saw Manning hit Sanders on a really nice post play for a 15 yard touchdown and a 41-10 lead as the 3^rd quarter closed. It was really nice to see Denver turn up the heat on both sides of the ball, and the Broncos offense took advantage and put the game away for good.

8)    Once again, the offense got off to a  sluggish start on the road. This has been a concern as of late-especially against bad teams like the Jets and Raiders. The offensive line was reshuffled this week with Manny Ramirez going to guard, Louis Vasquez going to tackle, and Will Montgomery getting his first start at center. The line struggled early on and it hasn't been consistent all year and the run game has been very suspect.

9)    This  defense is good enough to smother a young QB and that is what they did on Sunday against Derek Carr. I have a lot of confidence in this defense against weaker offenses, and Sunday proved it once again. Game balls on defense have to go to DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller once again, and players like Brandon Marshall, T.J. Ward, and Bradley Roby routinely made plays throughout the game.

10) Peyton Manning put away a rough start to the game and finished with 31-44 for 340 yards and 5 touchdowns in about three quarters worth of play. Manning is always in this column every week for his stellar play. I liked the distribution to the receivers. Demaryius Thomas continues to light it up with 11 catch 108 yard game. Julius Thomas had 6 receptions for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Emmanuel Sanders had 5 catches for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns.

11) At 7-2, Broncos did what they had to do and now finish the three game road trip at St. Louis on Sunday.

Broncos At the Halfway Point and Week 10 Picks!

Here is what I do know about the Broncos after eight games of the 2014 season: This isn't 2013. I have said that earlier this season, and it still holds true. Here is what we know so far about the Broncos as they hit the halfway mark of the year at 6-2:

1) Peyton Manning is still the man. He is on pace for 5,000 yards and 48 touchdowns. If the Broncos are going to win the Super Bowl this year, it will all be on Manning's shoulders once again.

2) The Broncos running game is just not as consistent as it was last year or near the level it should be at. Ronnie Hillman has provided a spark as of late but he only has 365 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year. Montee Ball has been injured the last month, but he was really struggling before he got hurt.

3) Cutting Matt Prater and sticking with Brandon McManus as our kicker was a bad decision. McManus is only 6 of 9 on field goals this year, and he hasn't been faced with a pressure kick just yet. It will doom us in the end if he continues to be inconsistent.

4) Demaryius Thomas is still a beast, and one of the biggest threats in all of the NFL. He is on pace for 90 catches and 1,700 yards with 12 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has been a great free-agent pickup and he is on pace for over 90 receptions and over 1,500 yards with 8 touchdowns. Julius Thomas is still a huge weapon in the redzone and he already has 10 touchdowns. Wes Welker looks like a player who has seen his better days. He only has 22 catches for 212 yards so far this year. Our offense is still really good and the Broncos are averaging over 29 points per game on offense. This team will score and move the ball, but you worry about it on the road.

5) We know that the defense is a lot better. DeMarcus Ware has been really good and he has 8 sacks on the year so far. T.J. Ward has also made his presence felt this year, and Aqib Talib has been really solid at corner for the Broncos too. Chris Harris has been stellar on the other corner, and rookie Bradley Roby has played really well in the nickel. Von Miller has returned to form and he already has 9 sacks on the year. You have to give credit to guys like Terrence Knighton, Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams, and Malik Jackson for being so stout against the run this year. The Broncos run defense has been really solid all year long. The defense got a boost from Brandon Marshall stepping in at linebacker so far as well. Overall, the defense is better, but you still have to wonder about them in a big spot, against a good offense, and a good QB. Look what Tom Brady did to them last week.

6) We know the Broncos are one of the best teams in the AFC and a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but can they step up to the plate in a big game. That is the question that will be on their minds as they enter the second half of the season and the playoffs. They can do it when it counts? We have a whole second half of the year to find out.

On to the picks for Week 10...

Last Week's Record: 9-3-1
Overall Record: 67-61-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Jacksonville (+7) over Dallas (In London): I have a feeling this game will be close. I just don't trust the whole Tony Romo/Back situation. Look for a surprisingly close game in London.

Miami (+3) over DETROIT: Do you trust the Lions at home? The Lions seem more dangerous on the road. It's like they don't play the same way at home as they do on the road. You have to give credit for the Dolphins at 5-3 and the way that they whipped the Chargers last week. I'm taking the Fish as an underdog here.

Kansas City (-1) over BUFFALO: You have to go with the better team here, and the Chiefs are simply better than the Bills at this point. Fun game in the AFC though with both teams at 5-3.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over San Francisco: I might get burned by this, but look for the Saints to at least win this game by a touchdown. It should be a really good game and with both teams at 4-4 it is a crucial game-especially for the Niners. I didn't think the 49ers would make the playoffs at the beginning of the year, and I'm sticking with that prediction all the way through. 

BALTIMORE (-7) over Tennessee: I can't see the Ravens laying an egg here at home. At 5-4, they have lost two straight, so I expect their A game in this one.

NY JETS (+5) over Pittsburgh: Weird game to me. I full expect a Steeler win, but for some reason I think the Jets cover. By the way, if you're a Jet fan, how bad will it be if Mark Sanchez plays well the rest of the year, and takes the Eagles to the playoffs? Talk about adding more salt to the wound.

Atlanta (-2) over TAMPA BAY: A pretty bad game in the NFC South, but a Falcons win here keeps them alive to somehow win this crappy division. 

St.Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: Aren't the Cardinals due for a clunker? It seems like the Rams always seem to play better when they are facing a really good team-especially in their own division. Look for the Cards to win, but I think this one is close.

SEATTLE (-7) over NY Giants: There is no way a banged up Giants team at 3-5 is getting on a plane, flying over 3,000 miles, and pulling an upset of the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday in their building. I just can't see it. This might be the lock of the week.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Chicago: Jay Cutler on road in a night game. That might be all you need to know if you want to takes the Packers. There is also no way the Packers are losing two in a row.

Carolina (+7) over PHILLY: How can you take Philly with Sanchez coming in to start? I'm not saying it won't work out, but I have to wait and see before I jump on their bandwagon. 


OAKLAND (+11) over Denver: Here is why this game is dangerous: Although Oakland is 0-8, they have played close games against San Diego, New England, and Seattle this year. It would not surprise me at all if the Raiders play well in this game. It is pretty hard for a team to lose nine straight games to start the year. This game has some serious upset potential to it. I hope I'm wrong.

Final Score: Raiders-28 Broncos-27

Cincy-Cleveland TNF Pick!

CINCY (-6) over Cleveland: A fun game on Thursday Night Football as the surprising Browns (5-3) head to Cincy to take on the Bengals (5-2-1) in a showdown in the AFC North. It is being billed as the Battle of Ohio and for good reason. When was the last time a game between these two teams meant something at this point of the season? I think we have to go back to the 80s with Sam Whyce and Marty Schottenheimer at the helm of these two franchises. I like the story of the Browns so far, but this seems like a tall order on the road at Cincy on a short week. Take the Bengals at home to cover the spread. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Patriots Blast Broncos 43-21 in Manning-Brady Showdown

The highly anticipated Peyton Manning and Tom Brady matchup on Sunday turned out to be a no contest. The Patriots buried the Broncos 43-21 in a game that showed everyone that the Broncos are not as good as they think they are. It was a beatdown, and the Pats certainly made a statement in this statement game. Forget about the performances by Brady and Manning. The Patriots as a team outcoached, outexecuted, and outplayed the Broncos in every phase. The Broncos got served a big piece of humble pie, and in the process now need to reevaluate themselves going forward. Maybe they can use this game as a learning tool, but in any event they have to realize that there is a long way to go before someone gives them the Lombardi Trophy. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game….

1)    In my opinion, the entire game fell apart in the second quarter. The Broncos actually started the game well. They forced a punt on the first drive and gave up a field goal on the second drive, and they answered that field goal with a really nice touchdown drive that was capped off by a Ronnie Hillman 1 yard touchdown run. The score was setup by big throws from Manning to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas against Darrelle Revis. At 7-3, you had to feel good as a Broncos fan. After giving up only a field goal on the next drive it was 7-6 Denver, and the Broncos were getting the ball back.

2)    Here is where the game turned for the Broncos: Manning gets fooled by the Patriots defense and he gets picked off by Rob Ninkovich. That pick sets up a touchdown pass from Brady to Julian Edelman to give the Pats a 13-7 lead. From there, the game just snowballed for the Broncos.

3)    After the Broncos offense stalled, which happened quite often in the game, Edelman returned the ensuing punt for a touchdown to make it 20-7. That really put the Broncos in a bind. That kind of took the Broncos out of their gameplan and turned the game in the Patriots favor for good.

4)    From there, the Broncos seemed to implode. Brandon McManus is a real question mark at kicker, and I have been saying this for the last three weeks, and he screwed us once again in this game. His 41 yard field goal was wide right, and that would have made the game 20-10. His miss was huge, and I think that the Broncos have to start to think about replacing McManus. Plus, he had the freaking wind at his back and he still missed it.

5)    First, they miss the field goal, then they have to go for it on 4^th and 6 from the Pats 34 because we have no faith in our kicker. A sack on Manning killed the drive, and then the Pats stick another touchdown in the end zone on a Brady and Shane Vereen hookup. At 27-7, that late sequence near the end of the half completely changed the game and affected the outcome.

6)    Down 27-7 at the half, you knew that the Broncos were going to at least get back into the game at some point. They got a pick of Brady to start the half, and Manning hit Julius Thomas on a fade route for a touchdown to make it 27-14. You hoped that Denver would start the comeback at this point. Of course, our defense can’t get a key stop, and New England kicked a field goal to make it 30-14. The Broncos defense got worked by the Pats. They couldn’t cover Rob Gronkowski which always happens. Edelman and Brandon Lafell won the matchups against the Broncos corners. The Pats offensive line neutralized the Broncos pass rush. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware had trouble getting pressure, and the Pats completely dictated the pace of the game.

7)    The game was officially over when Manning’s pass for Wes Welker bounced off Welker’s shoulder and Brandon Browner intercepted it and returned all the way down to the Broncos five yard line. The next play Brady hit Lafell for a touchdown and that made it 37-14. The game was over at that point. The Broncos offense seemed uncoordinated, inconsistent, and just sloppy in this game. On the road, the Broncos has really struggled this year, and Sunday was no different. Manning played okay, but he needed to be great in this game and not just good or okay. They abandoned the run after the first quarter, and it just seemed like something was off with the offense in general.

8)    The Pats were simply the better team on Sunday. They did everything they had to do, and the Broncos simply got beat. Plain and simple: The Pats were better in every phase of this game. It doesn’t mean that will be the case if they meet up in January, but for this game, the Pats looked remarkably better than the Broncos.

9) Here is what has the Broncos fans up in arms after Sunday's loss: It seems like the team was no ready to step up to the plate in the second biggest game since February. Sunday's loss reminded a lot of us of the Super Bowl against Seattle. Of course there is no reason to jump off the ship, but it could be a bad omen for the Broncos going forward-especially in a big game in the playoffs. Do you have any faith in Denver winning a huge game on the road in the playoffs? I don't and Sunday's blowout loss to the Pats did nothing to encourage me on that fact. The sky isn't falling and at 6-2 the Broncos are still in good shape in the AFC, but the confidence in them of producing in the big spot is very low at this point. The vaunted defense generated no pass rush, got beaten consistently in one-on-one matchups, and there seemed to be no adjustments by John Fox and Jack Del Rio on that side of the ball. On offense, it looked like a team that gave up on the run too early, didn't win one-on-one matchups consistently, make silly and sloppy mistakes, and it looked disjointed at times. Overall, it was a bad day for the Broncos and their fans. Let's hope we get a chance at the Patriots one more time in the playoffs, and let's just hope that the result is different next time around. At this point, it is hard to believe that it will be. 

Manning vs. Brady and Week 9 Picks

On Sunday, Peyton Manning and the Broncos travel to New England to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. It will be the 16th meeting,including playoffs, for these two legendary quarterbacks. So much has been written about these two immortal players. Both are in the top five or six greatest QBs in history alongside Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, John Elway, and Dan Marino. What I think makes this year's game so special is that the game is still "The Game" on the schedule for that week. Manning's Broncos are 6-1 and on top of the AFC. Brady's Patriots are 6-2 and riding a four-game winning streak. Both teams are the two best teams in the AFC once again as we hit November. This game is huge for both of them once again. Last year, both teams met in the AFC Championship Game. This year, everyone was jumping on the Bengals and Chargers bandwagon in early September. After Denver lost at Seattle in Week 3 and the Pats got crushed by the Chiefs in Week 4, people were starting to doubt if the Pats and Broncos were still the elite in the AFC this year. A month later, and here we are with both teams settling in for a showdown to prove who is elite in the AFC at this point. Enjoy Manning and Brady once again not only because they are two of the greatest ever to play the game. Enjoy it not only because it is a classic rivalry that we really don't have a lot of anymore in sports. Enjoy it because it proves once again no matter who comes into the league, which team is the hot team at the moment, everything in the AFC revolves or goes through Manning or Brady. I can't wait for Sunday. As for the game, I think Denver is the better team, but I think this is a tough spot for them. The Pats are pretty dominant at home and the weather is supposed to be really crappy-which favors the Patriots. I look for a close game, but look for the Pats to pull it out in the end.

NEW ENGLAND (+3) over Denver

Final Score: Pats-28 Broncos-25

Last Week's Record: 10-5

Overall Record: 58-58-5

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Here are my other quick picks for Week 9...

San Diego (+2) over MIAMI: I like the Chargers to get back on track.

Jacksonville (+11) over CINCY: The Bengals will win, but they will sleepwalk through this one.

Tampa Bay (+7) over Cleveland: I've been tempted to take the Bucs all week long. I think the Browns will win the game, and it sets up a really good Thursday night game next week at Cincy, but I think Cleveland will struggle for awhile with Tampa in this one.

Arizona (+3) over DALLAS: Looks like Tony Romo is out, and that means I'll take the Cards on the road against Brandon Weeden. 

Washington (+3) over MINNESOTA: RG III returns and pulls out a win on the road for the Skins.

Philly (-1) over HOUSTON: The Eagles will bounce back after that bad loss at Arizona last week.

KANSAS CITY (-8) over NY Jets: The Jets are down and out at 1-7, and I can't see them keeping up with rapidly improving Chiefs in Arrowhead.

SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over St. Louis: The 49ers had a week off after getting pasted by the Broncos two weeks ago, and I think they will be recharged and take care of business at home.

SEATTLE (-13) over Oakland: I have a feeling the Seahawks will be ready for this one and they will dominate from the start.

PITTSBURGH (+2) over Baltimore: This is a really good Sunday night game. I think the Steelers will grind one out and find a way to get past the Ravens at home.

Indy (-3) over NY GIANTS: Too much Andrew Luck for the Giants on Monday night. I expect the G-Men to play really well, but Luck will stick it to them in the end.