NFL Week 11 Picks!

We are at the midway point of November, and now it is time to start figuring out the potential playoff contenders in the AFC and NFC. We can't use the Yahoo Playoff Generator just yet. That is a tradition to start after Thanksgiving weekend, but we can start to see the playoff picture come into focus a little more. In the AFC, New England, Denver, and Indy are leading their divisions, and there is a log jam in the AFC North with four teams above .500. Miami(6-4), KC(6-3), and San Diego(5-4) remain in the Wild Card hunt as well. Buffalo is teetering at 5-5, and Houston is there as well but at 4-5. You have to take at least 2 teams from the North (Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore or Cleveland), and that leaves the Fish, Chiefs, Chargers, and the other two teams from the North fighting for one spot. It will definitely be fun the last few weeks in the AFC. In the NFC, it is more cut and dry. The Eagles and Cowboys are battling for the NFC East. Someone is going to win the crappy NFC South (Probably the 4-5 Saints), and it looks like it is down to Green Bay and Detroit in the North. In the West, the Cardinals are the surprise leader at 8-1, but they just lost Carson Palmer for the year. Seattle at 6-3, and San Francisco at 5-4 are right there. Whoever loses the races for the division in the North and the East will have to contend with the 49ers and the Seahawks for the last two spots. There will be at least 2 good, marquee teams on the outside looking in come January in the NFC. Onto the picks in Week 11..

Last Week's Record: 6-7
Overall Record: 73-68-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston: Ryan Mallet vs. Brian Hoyer in a key AFC matchup in Week 11. Somewhere, Josh McDaniels is smiling like a proud father. I’m not sold on the Browns, but I like them this week to get to 7-3.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: How bad have the Bears been the last few weeks? Every Denver fan is nodding at how the rest of the NFL is now jumping off the Jay Cutler bandwagon. You have to think the Bears will get the win at home this week because if they don’t, Marc Trestman might be gone by Monday.

GREEN BAY (-4) over Philly: Tough game to call. I think I will go with the Packers at home mainly because I really can’t trust Mark Sanchez just yet.

Seattle (+3) over KANSAS CITY: I saw a lot of people picking the Chiefs at home this week, but I don’t see it. This game will play out with Russell Wilson with the ball in his hands and the game on the line. I think he will pull it out at the end.

CAROLINA (+1) over Atlanta: Welcome to the crappy NFC South! A Panthers win gets them to 4-6-1 and back in the race, while a Falcons win gets them to 4-6 and in the thick of the race. What a shitty division.

Cincy (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: Usually, the Saints are a lock to cover at home, but things are different for the 4-5 Saints this year. I think they will find a way to win, but Cincy will give them everything they can.

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON: There is no way the Redskins should be favored by a touchdown over anyone. The Bucs are bad, but they have played very feisty the last month for Lovie Smith.

San Francisco (-3) over NY GIANTS: How can you take the Giants at home? Watch out for the Niners. Last week's OT win over the Saints got them to 5-4, and they could get going as a result. Too much Colin Kaepernick for a Giants defense that gives up way too many big plays.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Oakland: I can't see the Chargers losing four straight after starting 5-1. They will get going this week at home over the winless Raiders. This game should be over early.

Detroit (+2) over ARIZONA: Drew Stanton will fill in admirably for Carson Palmer, but there is no way he is taking this team to the Super Bowl. Their 8-1 start might help them get into the playoffs even if they stumble down the stretch, but this week will be a tough one for them at home. Look for the Lions to continue their winning ways with another wild win late.

New England (+3) over INDY: Great Sunday Night Football game on NBC. Brady-Luck in an AFC showdown. I was picking the Colts all week, but I have a feeling that the Pats will be up to the task in this game. This seems close either way, but look for New England to thwart Luck late in the game to win it.

Pittsburgh (-5) over TENNESSEE: Awful Monday Night Football game on ESPN. The Titans are just terrible, and now they host the Steelers. The Steelers have this habit of playing shitty against crummy teams and losing. They are 6-4 this year, and two of their losses were to the Bucs and the Jets. I think Mike Tomlin sends that message to his team loud and clear this week. Look for the Steelers to take care of their business on the road over the Titans.

ST. LOUIS (+9.5) over Denver: The Broncos have some real issues on their offensive line. They shuffled it around last week in Oakland. They moved Louis Vasquez to RT, Manny Ramirez to RG, and inserted Will Montgomery to C. It was a decent upgrade, but their line is still not playing to the level that it did last year. Was Zane Beadles that big of a difference for us last year? Anyway, they will be tested by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald and that young defense in St. Louis. The Broncos better be ready up front to protect Peyton Manning. Denver has gotten off to really slow starts in most of their road games this year. I'll give their offense a pass for the slow start in Seattle and New England, but at the Jets and at the Raiders, the offense looked shaky, sluggish, and disjointed at times. It would be nice to see them getting off to a real fast start this week, put up some points early, and let the defense go to work on Shaun Hill. I never have a good feel for the Broncos when they play a weak team on the road, and this game is no exception-especially with the early kickoff.

Final Score: Rams-26 Broncos-24