Week 17 Picks!

As we head into Week 17, I have to take a minute and take a bow for my picks this season. I started the year 9-21-2 after two weeks. That is a deep hole to recover from, and I was able to dig myself out of that hole. Now, I stand at a whopping 23 games over .500 for my picks-clearly my best season picking games against the spread since I started this blog in 2008. Was there a secret to my success? We all know gambling is part luck and part skill, but I just seemed to have a good read on certain teams this year. Sometimes you go with your hunch or your gut, sometimes you have to just take the points, and sometimes you just have a good feel for a line and a game. All those factors contributed to my picks this year. After two weeks, I said my record made me feel like I just got blown out the first two games of the year and lost my starting quarterback. As I hit the final week of the regular season, it is like I have rebounded to take the division title, wrap up homefield advantage, and I can sit my starters to rest up for the playoffs. As far as this week goes, I am picking the teams that I want to see win and/or how I think things will shape up for the playoffs when the dust settles on Sunday night. Enjoy the final Week of the 2014 regular season and here are the picks for Week 17.....

Last Week's Record: 9-7
Overall Record: 128-105-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-7) over Detroit: The winner of this game wins the NFC North and most likely the #2 seed and a bye. The loser of this game gets to be the #6 seed and start the playoffs on the road. I just can't see the Packers losing at Lambeau with the division title on the line and a shot at a bye. The Lions haven't won there since 1991. I'll take the Packers to secure the #2 seed, and the Lions to get the #6 seed and head to Dallas on Wild Card weekend.

Jacksonville (+9) over HOUSTON: Great job by Bill O'Brien and the Texans this year. At 8-7, they still have a slight chance at making the playoffs (They need to win and Balt and SD have to lose), and you have to give them credit considering the situation at quarterback for them. I think they win this game to finish 9-7, but I think that Jacksonville plays them tight and keeps it close. The Texans will also fall just short of the playoffs though.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincy: Tough game to call. I think this game is a toss up, but I'll take the Steelers at home on SNF. The winner of this game takes the AFC North and most likely the #3 seed, while the loser of the game will fall to the #5 seed and probably head to Indy in Round 1 next weekend. Both teams will be dangerous in the playoffs, but I'll take the Steelers at home.

Indy (-7) over TENNESSEE: The Colts are pretty much locked into the #4 seed. They need to play their starters and play well because they got killed last week 42-7 at Dallas. They need to get their momentum back before the playoffs start. The Titans are battling for the #1 overall pick in the draft, so I don't see them putting up much of a fight here. They will likely finish 2-14.

BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland: The Ravens are all banged up, got crushed by Houston last week, and at 9-6 need a win over the Browns and a San Diego loss to make the playoffs as the #6 seed. They get a break this week because the Browns are starting third-string QB Connor Shaw. I'm picking the Ravens to win this game and find their way into the playoffs because I picked them to be a playoff team before the season started, so I am sticking with them here.

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Buffalo: The Pats have locked up the #1 seed and homefield in the AFC, and the Bills are playing out the string at 8-7. A meaningless game, but I still see the Pats taking care of their own business at home to end the season 13-3.

Miami (-6) over NY Jets: Another meaningless game as the 8-7 Dolphins are out of the playoff hunt. Owner Stephen Ross said last week that head coach Joe Philbin would be back next year. I don't know if that is the right decision. This team should be in the playoffs- no question about it. The Jets are 3-12 and playing what could be their final game for head coach Rex Ryan. Has any coach fallen from grace like Rex has in the past four years? In 2010, Rex was one of the biggest names in New York sports, now four years later, he will be fired as the coach of the Jets.

ATLANTA (-3) over Carolina: I love this matchup. The NFC South Title game between the 6-9 Falcons and the 6-8-1 Panthers! This game should have been the Sunday night game on NBC, but instead they chose the Pitt-Cincy game. Anyway, I really don't mind if a division winner wins a division and hosts a playoff game with a record below .500. It doesn't happen every year, so who cares if it happens this year. It won't alter the landscape of the NFL. This game will be fun, and I am taking the Falcons because I picked them to make the playoffs before the season started, and I like how they played hard in Green Bay a few weeks ago and how they buried the Saints last week.

MINNESOTA (-5) over Chicago: A meaningless game, but the Vikings can end strong and finish at 7-9 and build momentum for next year with Teddy Bridgewater. The Bears will finish their awful 2014 season with a loss and a 5-11 record and a myriad of questions regarding QB Jay Cutler, HC Marc Trestman, and the entire structure of their franchise heading into next season.

KANSAS CITY (-1) over San Diego: Huge game in the AFC. If SD wins, then they are in as the #6 seed. The Chiefs have a slight chance to get in but they need to win and get losses from Baltimore and Houston. The story for this game changed when KC found out that QB Alex Smith is going to miss the game with a lacerated spleen. That means Chase Daniel will get the start and try to knock the Chargers out of the playoffs. Great game in the AFC West with the playoffs on the line. Even with Daniel getting the start, I think the Chiefs find a way to knock the Chargers off and eliminate them from playoff contention.

Philly (+3) over NY GIANTS: A meaningless game as Philly is eliminated from playoff contention after losing three in a row and going from 9-3 to 9-6. I still think that both of these teams are on the rise for next year. I can see Philly bouncing back and winning the division next year, but they have to figure out what they want to do at QB. The Giants are playing out the string at 6-9, but the only thing to watch for them in this game is Odell Beckham.

WASHINGTON (+6) over Dallas: Hard to figure how Dallas will play this game. They are pretty much the #3 seed regardless. I don't think they will be playing all their starters throughout the game. Dallas will likely be hosting the Lions next week on Wild Card weekend.

New Orleans (-4) over TAMPA BAY: A meaningless game with the Saints ending their disappointing season with only a chance to finish 7-9. The Saints look like one of those transition teams with a lot of changes coming next year. The Bucs can lock up the #1 pick in next year's draft with a loss, so why go out and win this game?

St. Louis (+13) over SEATTLE: I think the Seattle will win the game and get the #1 seed in the NFC. I think this game will be closer than people think. You have to think that all Seattle wants to do is get a comfortable lead and get the hell out of there with the #1 seed and all of their key players healthy. Meanwhile, the Rams are going to be fighting like hell to spoil the Seahawks homefield hopes.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona: Jim Harbaugh's final game as 49ers head coach will see him go out a winner. At 7-8, all they have to play for is pride, and they face the playoff-bound Cardinals with Ryan Lindley starting at QB once again. The Cards are 11-4 and look like they are going to be #5 seed in the NFC and head to the NFC South winner in the first round next week. They hope that Drew Stanton will be back for the game. Can someone please tell me who the 49ers are going to get to replace Harbaugh? How about those three straight NFC Championship Games? How about the fact that they were thisclose to winning a Super Bowl two years ago? I don't get it, but I hope Harbaugh goes back to Michigan and rekindles the glory years for the Wolverines.

DENVER (-10) over Oakland: To all the Broncos fans who are losing their shit over the loss at Cincy on Monday night (Including me): Just calm down and understand that all we have to do is beat the 3-12  Raiders in Mile High on Sunday and we are the #2 seed and have a bye and a home playoff game in two weeks. After a week of everyone questioning his age, ability, and status, I really hope Peyton Manning just comes out on Sunday and rips it up to the tune of 340 yards and 4 touchdowns. I think the Broncos need that. Remember in 1997 and 1998 how the Broncos lost key games late in the season, and they rebounded to win the Super Bowl both of those years. Everyone just calm down, and let's go out and pound the Raiders on Sunday. Go Broncos!

Final Score: Broncos-28 Raiders-13