Championship Sunday Picks

 The final four is set and Championship Sunday is upon us. We have both #1 seeds in the AFC (Baltimore) and NFC (San Francisco) still alive and both #3 seeds (Kansas City and Detroit).  Both games feature really good matchups. As I always like to do, I like to rank the best possible Super Bowl matchups based on the four teams left. These are not my preferred matchups, but the matchups that probably feature the best storylines and juice:

1) San Francisco vs. Kansas City-Rematch of the Super Bowl LIV from a few years ago. The whole Taylor Swift storyline with the Chiefs. KC going to a repeat Super Bowl victory. Two dominant teams from the past five years facing off. A lot of star-power on both sides.

2) San Francisco vs. Baltimore- Rematch of Super Bowl XLVII. Rematch of the Christmas night game from a month ago. Matchup of both #1 seeds and probably the two best teams in the league this year.

3) Detroit vs. Kansas City-The Lions making their first appearance in a Super Bowl ever. Rematch of opening night game to kickoff the season. Taylor Swift against Eminem in terms of celebrity fans.

4) Detroit vs. Baltimore-The Lions making their first ever Super Bowl appearance. Rematch of a game from the regular season. Two of the top teams all year long from each conference. A matchup of two teams that no one had picked would be facing off in the Super Bowl-something different.

Now, onto the picks for Championship Sunday.....

Final Regular Season Overall Record: 143-110-18

Last Week's Playoff Record: 3-1

Overall Playoff Record: 6-4

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

AFC Championship Game

(3) Kansas City at (1) Baltimore

A Case for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is the best QB on the planet, and the Chiefs have a chance as long as he is around. Everyone made a big deal about him playing in his first road playoff game in his career, and went into Buffalo and pulled out the win over the Bills. As good as the Ravens defense has played this year, Mahomes can exploit them.The Chiefs defense has played well all year, and you can see a scenario in which they have a solid gameplan and frustrate the Ravens offense. Everyone talked about how this wasn't a vintage Chiefs team this year and they were the most vulnerable in this ear of Mahomes. It seems like everything is coming together for them in the playoffs. They are dangerous, battle-tested, and will make things very difficult on the Ravens. 

A Case for the Ravens: The Ravens have been the best team in league from start to finish. They lost four games all year. Three were close, late losses to Pitt, Cleveland, and Indy. The fourth loss was to the Steelers in Week 18 when Baltimore sat their starters. They also have a dynamic offense and Lamar Jackson is playing at a MVP level again. They are at home and this is the first time the Ravens have hosted an AFC Championship Game. The crowd and energy should be off the charts. Pound-for-pound they are the better team.

Prediction: Kansas City (+3.5) over BALTIMORE: I think the Ravens should win this game. I think the Ravens will win this game, but I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. I see the Chiefs somehow going into Baltimore and pulling off the upset and heading to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years.

Final Score: Chiefs-26 Ravens-23

NFC Championship Game

(3) Detroit at (1) San Francisco

A Case for the Lions: They are the feel good story of the NFC this year. But, they are no slouch. They won 12 games this year and two playoff wins. Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career. Their offense is explosive and has so many weapons. They definitely will be able to move the ball and put up points on this 49ers defense. The Lions are one of the few remaining franchises that have never made the Super Bowl. They are in their first NFC Championship since 1991 and are 60 minutes away. Maybe they are due. Maybe they will reward their long-suffering fans with a trip to the Super Bowl.

A Case for the 49ers: We know how talented the Niners are, and for most of the game last week against the Packers it looked like the Niners were going to choke away a playoff game and get upset at home. They were able to turn it around late and won the game. Perhaps the Niners got it out of their system. Now, they can exhale a little and dial in on the Lions in the NFC Title game. I would expect a crisp and solid performance from the Niners. It would be surprising if the Niners laid an egg in this one.

Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over Detroit: The 49ers get over the hump after losing the last two NFC Championship Games and beat the Lions to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019 and the 8th Super Bowl appearance overall. 

Final Score: 49ers-31 Lions-23

Divisional Round Preview and Picks

The top seeds now get into the action as the NFL hits the Divisional Round Playoffs. Two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. The #1 seed in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers come off their bye and host the #7 seeded Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. Before that game, the #1 seed in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, host the #4 seeded Houston Texans. On Sunday, the Lions host the Buccaneers in the first matchup, and the Bills host the Chiefs in the nightcap on Sunday night. Out of the eight teams left in the Divisional Round, only three of these teams were in this round last year (SF, Buffalo, and KC), so that means there are five new teams this year in the Divisional Round. Three of them weren't even in the playoffs last year (Lions, Packers, and Texans), so things can change quickly in the NFL year-to-year. 

Final Regular Season Overall Record: 143-110-18

Last Week's Playoff Record: 3-3

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

AFC Divisional Playoff

(4) Houston at (1) Baltimore

 A Case for the Texans: The Texans can play fast and loose like they did last week. No one expected them to get to the Divisional Round this year, and now that they are here, they can play up the "Cinderella"
 role against the big favorite on the road. C.J. Stroud was amazing last week in his playoff debut. If he stays hot, then he can carry this team to an upset on his back. Maybe Houston learned from their Week 1 drubbing in Baltimore, and they can use that as they prepare for this matchup. The Colts and Browns already went into Baltimore and upset them and won this year. I like their chances with Stroud-even on the road- to at least keep this game close.

A Case for the Ravens: The last time the Ravens were the #1 seed was in 2019, and Lamar Jackson was the league MVP that year. They got shocked by the Titans in the Divisional Round that year. This year, they are the #1 seed again, and Lamar is in line to be the MVP again. Can they get upset again at home in the Divisional Round coming off a bye? That seems hard to fathom. Lamar is playing at such a high level right now, and the team is peaking at the right time. They buried the 49ers and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17 to secure the 1 seed. The bye should help them rest and get healthy. Everything points to them getting on a run and getting to a Super Bowl.

Prediction: Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE: The Ravens are going to win the game, but I like Houston to keep it closer than the spread. Look for a close game throughout and I could see the Ravens fans having some nervous moments, but look for Baltimore to close it out and advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since the 2012 season.

Final Score: Ravens-30 Texans-22

NFC Divisional Playoff

(7) Green Bay at (1) San Francisco

A Case for the Packers: They are also playing great right now and are riding high after their upset win in Dallas in the Wild Card round. They can play fast, loose, and relaxed as all the pressure will be on the 49ers. Jordan Love is playing great right now, and he was tremendous in the win over Dallas. If he stays hot, they can give the 49ers a scare. Plus, Matt LaFluer was a part of Kyle Shanahan's coaching tree, so he knows a lot about Shanny's scheme and tendencies. After winning in Dallas last week, I don't think the Packers will be intimidated heading to San Fran, and they will have a lot of confidence that they can pull off another upset. 

.A Case for the 49ers: They have so much talent on both sides of the ball. I like this matchup from an offensive standpoint for the Niners. I think they will have too many weapons and plays for the Packers defense to handle. Shanahan has had extra time to come up with something on offense, and I could just see the Niners overwhelming the Packers from the start. Then, they get a lead and the Niners defense takes over and makes Jordan Love's life miserable. Sometimes we can get fooled by a team when they look so good in the Wild Card round, then it comes crashing down the next playoff game. I think this game could be a good example of that. 

Prediction: Green Bay (+9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers will win the game and win it comfortably, but I could see back door potential for the Packers here. This game won't be as close as the score and the Niners will advance to their third straight NFC Championship Game.

Final Score: 49ers-31 Packers-23

NFC Divisional Playoff

(4) Tampa Bay at (3) Detroit

A Case for the Bucs: Really no pressure on the Bucs in this spot. They've accomplished a lot already this season. They finished 9-8, won the NFC South, and won a home playoff game by pasting the Eagles 32-9. Baker Mayfield has had a resurgence in his career this year in Tampa, and the vibes are good. Anything else that happens from here is gravy for them. They lost earlier in the year to Detroit, so maybe they can learn something from that game. They are playing with house money and all the pressure falls onto the Lions, so the Bucs could be dangerous in this spot.

A Case for the Lions: They are the better team between these two teams. They are at home and you saw how loud Ford Field was last week in the wild card win over the Rams. They got the monkey off their back with the playoff win ending a 32 year drought, so now they can go out and play. The game last week against the Rams was going to be challenging on the field and mentally for them and they got past it. The Lions offense is really good at home and they get off to quick starts-which could throttle the Bucs. I would expect a big-time effort by the Lions in this spot.

Prediction: DETROIT (-6) over Tampa Bay: The Lions win their second straight playoff game, and advance to the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991.

Final Score: Lions-30 Buccaneers-17

AFC Divisional Playoff

(3) Kansas City at (2) Buffalo

A Case for the Chiefs: They have Patrick Mahomes. As long as Mahomes is back there, you have to like the Chiefs chances. They also have their running game going, and that will be a factor in a cold environment in Buffalo on Sunday night. The Chiefs defense has been really good all year long, and I could see them forcing the Bills into stupid mistakes. The Bills are pretty banged up too, and that will favor the Chiefs. Until the Chiefs are knocked out, you really have to think they might go on another Super Bowl run.

A Case for the Bills: The Bills were left for dead at 6-6, but they rattled off five wins in a row to finish 11-6 and win the AFC East. They backed that up by burying the Steelers at home in the Wild Card round. Now, the Chiefs come to town, and the Bills can get PLAYOFF revenge on KC after losing to them in the 2020 AFC Championship Game and the 2021 AFC Divisional Playoff. Those games were both in KC, and now the Chiefs come to Orchard Park to face the Bills. That is a big factor. This will be Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game. The Bills are due to slay the dragon, knock off the Chiefs and head to the AFC Title game.

Prediction: Kansas City (+2.5) over BUFFALO: This is the best game of the weekend without a doubt. I love that this game is Sunday night and the last game of the weekend. As much as I want to see Buffalo win, and I think they are due to knock off the Chiefs, I can see KC and Pat Mahomes finding a way and pulling off the upset.

Final Score: Chiefs-24 Bills-20

2023 Wild Card Weekend Picks

 The playoffs are here and Wild Card Weekend kicks things off with some really fun and interesting storylines. In the NFC, you have a classic Dallas-Green Bay matchup with Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy facing his old team, Philly hanging on to their season by a thread trying to get back to a Super Bowl, and Matt Stafford and the Rams going to Detroit to take on his old team with Jared Goff trying to lead the Lions to their first playoff win since 1991. The AFC features the Bills hosting the Steelers as Buffalo and Josh Allen try to make their run for their franchise's first Super Bowl title, Tyreek Hill going back to Arrowhead for the first time as the Dolphins travel to KC to take on the Chiefs, and Joe Flacco and the Browns traveling to Houston to take on the Texans and C.J. Stroud. There is definitely the possibility for a lot of fun and entertaining games this weekend....

Last Week's Record: 13-3

Final Regular Season Overall Record: 143-110-18

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

AFC Wild Card Game

(5) Cleveland at (4) Houston

A Case for the Browns: The Browns have been such a story this season, and now they have added the improbable redemption run of Joe Flacco this past month. The Browns are 11-6, and Flacco was the fourth starting QB this year after Deshaun Watson went down halfway through the year. Flacco has fit perfectly with this offense and somehow he is playing his best football since like 2014. We know how Flacco can get hot in the playoffs, so he can actually carry this Browns team on his back. The Browns defense was one of the best in the NFL all year long, and the strength of their team. They have the advantage over a rookie QB like C.J. Stroud. There seems to just be something magical about this Browns team and it feels like they could get on a run. Plus, they pounded the Texans in Houston a few weeks ago.

A Case for the Texans: Houston is playing with house money in this game. NO ONE expected them to win 10 games and make the playoffs with a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie QB in C.J. Stroud. Most people had them below 6 wins easily this year, yet here they are. Everyone is going to be picking the Browns, so they can play the underdog role all week long. Plus, C.J. Stroud has been the best rookie QB since Andrew Luck, and he could have a big day and put this game on his shoulders and lead the Texans to the upset.

Prediction: Cleveland (-2) over HOUSTON: I'm surprised the line is this low for the Browns. I just think their defense will make life difficult for C.J. Stroud and their offense will do just enough to get the victory and move on to the Divisional Round.

Final Score: Browns-24 Texans-17

AFC Wild Card Game

(6) Miami at (3) Kansas City

A Case for the Dolphins: Miami has consistently had one of the top offenses in the NFL all year long. You have the Tyreek Hill revenge game factor as he heads to Arrowhead for the first time since being traded from the Chiefs. These teams met in Germany in November and the Dolphins can use that loss as motivation to figure out a way to knock off the Chiefs. Vic Fangio (Miami's DC) knows how to attack the Chiefs offense and usually has a good defensive gameplan for Pat Mahomes. Miami also was a front-runner for a top seed in the AFC all year long, but injuries and key losses at the end of the year spoiled those hopes. Now, they are the underdog to the Chiefs and no one believes that they can get on a run. They will use that as motivation. 

A Case for the Chiefs: Kansas City gets a banged-up Dolphins defense that is missing pass-rushers, linebackers and secondary players across the board. It is perfectly set up for Patrick Mahomes to take advantage of this beat-up defense. The Chiefs defense also did a really nice job on the Dolphins offense when they played in the regular season. The weather is calling for a windchill of -13 on Saturday night in KC, so that definitely favors the Chiefs. Too many factors are lining up in the Chiefs favor for this one.

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (-4) over Miami: The Dolphins once promising season comes to an end in a bitter, cold way on Saturday night in Arrowhead. Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs advance to the Divisional Round for the sixth straight year.

Final Score: Chiefs-27 Dolphins-20

AFC Wild Card Game

(7) Pittsburgh at (2) Buffalo

A Case for the Steelers: The Steelers have Mike Tomlin as their head coach. Somehow and someway, Tomlin got this team to 10 wins and a playoff berth. He's the better coach in the game on Sunday, so you know he will have his team prepared and ready to go. The Steelers are definitely the team that no one believes in the most this weekend, so they can play fast and loose. The Bills have all the pressure on them and doesn't make it easy on themselves. so maybe the Steelers can take advantage of that. Buffalo was a big favorite last year over Miami in the same spot, and they almost lost. Did I mention that Mike Tomlin is the Steelers coach?

A Case for the Bills: At 6-6, they looked like they might miss playoffs, but then they ripped off five straight wins and won the AFC East. Now, they are the 2 seed and host the Steelers and Mason Rudolph. I can't see the Steelers moving the ball consistently against the Bills defense in this spot. T.J. Watt got hurt in Week 18, so he is out, and that should allow Josh Allen to have a big day. Maybe the Bills are just hitting their stride at the right time. I can see them going on a big playoff run starting with this game on Sunday.

Prediction: BUFFALO (-10) over Pittsburgh: The Bills are heavy favorites and they should be. This would be a monumental disaster if they lost this game. Weather will be a factor as they are calling for a very windy and blustery day in Buffalo. I think it might close for a little while, but the Bills will win and advance to the Divisional Round for the fourth year in a row.

Final Score: Bills-26 Steelers-10

NFC Wild Card Game 

(7) Green Bay at (2) Dallas

A Case for the Packers: The Packers are ahead of schedule this year. Not many people picked them to make the playoffs. They are one of the youngest teams since the merger to make the playoffs. They are playing with house money coming into this game as big underdogs. Jordan Love has played really well the second half of the season. All the pressure is on the Cowboys. No one expects the Packers to win this game. If things go their way and get a lead, then it could snowball in their favor.

A Case for the Cowboys: The Cowboys are deserving of the #2 seed in the NFC this year and they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They are very dominating at home, and their offense and Dak Prescott should have a big game against the Packers and their defense. I like the matchup of Dan Quinn's defense against against a QB making his first career playoff start. It feels like this could be a statement game for Dallas as they make their run to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay: This is a fun game in the 4:25pm EST window on Sunday. Mike McCarthy gets revenge on his old team, and Dallas advances to the Divisional Round for the second straight year.

Final Score: Cowboys-38 Packers-24

NFC Wild Card Game

(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit

A Case for the Rams: They have the better coach in Sean McVay. You know McVay will have his team dialed in for this one. Matt Stafford has to be extra motivated going back to Detroit for a playoff game. Put it this way: I trust the combo of McVay and Stafford over Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. I think the Rams can score with the Lions and keep the pressure on them since they are favored to win their first playoff game since 1991. The Rams won a Super Bowl two years ago, but no one had them in the playoffs after last year's disastrous season, but here they are right back in the mix. I think they will be very dangersous in this spot. 

A Case for the Lions: They have one of the best offenses in football. They can score with anyone and they very good at home. Jared Goff plays the game of his life and gets revenge on McVay for trading him. The Lions fans have waited a long time for a home playoff game and they have waited a LONG time for a playoff win. It could be their time to get that done. I would expect the Lions fans to be loud and on their feet all night long and make that a very tough environment for the Rams.

Prediction: DETROIT (-3) over LA Rams: As much as I feel like the Lions are due to win a playoff game, I keep thinking that the Rams will win this game. I just have a gut feeling they will pull it out late and sending the Lions home with another epic, disappointing loss.

Final Score: Rams-33 Lions-31

NFC Wild Card Game

(5) Philadelphia at (4) Tampa Bay

A Case for the Eagles: They are the defending NFC Champions, and they still have a lot of talent and they still have Jalen Hurts. I think when the game is on the line, Hurts will find a way to make a play to win the game. After starting 10-1, they finished 11-6 and they are banged up, but maybe they were just trying to get to the playoffs and then turn it on. That's not inconceivable to think. Plus, they just seem like they are the better team than Tampa Bay-even if this game is in Tampa. It would be hard to fathom the Eagles getting bounced in the Wild Card round.

A Case for the Bucs: The Bucs finished 9-8 and won the putrid NFC South, but they played really well down the stretch. They are a home underdog-which is always dangerous. The Bucs are playing with house money and have nothing to lose. All the pressure is on the Eagles. Baker Mayfield can get hot as we have seen at times this year, and the Eagles defense has been so bad the last month that you can see a scenario in which Mayfield carves them up late and pulls off the upset.

Prediction: Philadelphia (-3) over TAMPA BAY: Philly crawled to the finish line and a lot of people don't have faith in them even winning this game, but I think they find a way to pull it off and advance to the Divisional Round.

Final Score: Eagles-28 Buccaneers-24

Broncos 2023 Recap

 The Broncos finished up the 2023 season at 8-9 with a 27-14 loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday in Week 18. Denver has now finished below .500 for seven consecutive seasons and it is the eighth straight year that the Broncos have missed the playoffs. Only the NY Jets have a longer playoff drought in the NFL. To me, it was a disappointing way for the Broncos season to end. I would have really liked to see Denver finish with a winning record at 9-8 and end the losing streak to the Raiders, which now stands at 8 in a row. Sean Payton's first season as head coach in Denver was a wild, unpredictable ride. From starting at 1-5, to winning five in a row to get to 6-6, to being 7-6 with a real shot at the playoffs, losing a heartbreaker on Christmas Eve to the Patriots to fall to 7-8, benching Russell Wilson, then finishing out of the playoffs and another losing year. It felt like three different seasons in one. Here are my takeaways on the season and going forward for the Broncos.....

1) At 1-5, I really didn't panic too much. Denver had blown games to the Raiders, Commanders, and Jets at home. They gave up 70 points to the Dolphins and played hard but fell short to Chiefs on a Thursday night. There was some hope and time to turn the season around a little bit. At that point, I just wanted Denver to get to 4-6 just to give me something to watch for the rest of the season. I just wanted some meaningful games to watch later in the season, and I didn't think at the time that Denver was as bad as the 1-5 record indicated.

2) The Broncos responded with a five game winning streak starting with a win over the Packers at home. The next week, they finally ended their losing streak to the Chiefs with a convincing win to get to 3-5 at the bye week. I felt optimistic that they could actually turn the season around. Following the bye, Denver beat the Bills in a wild game on MNF to get to 4-5, then followed it up with a comeback win over the Vikings on SNF to get to 5-5, and now we really had a reason to believe. The Broncos buried the Browns to get to 6-5, and there was legitimate playoff talk. The season had turned around, and it looked like Denver could snag that last seed in the AFC. It felt really fun again to be a Broncos fan.

3) Unfortunately, things didn't go that way for the Broncos down the stretch. A tough loss in Houston dropped them to 6-6, but they rebounded with a dominating win in LA over the Chargers to get to 7-6. Again, a favorable schedule showed a path to 10-7 and a wild card berth. I was truly sucked in at this point. I could feel a playoff spot within reach.

4) After getting blown out in Detroit 42-17 in Week 15, the Broncos stood at 7-7 at hosted the 3-11 Patriots on Christmas Eve. Denver trailed 23-7 in the 4th quarter, rallied to tie the game late, only to lose it 26-23 on a last second 56 yard field goal. It was one of the most disappointing losses the Broncos have had in recent years.  At 7-8, they now faced only a 5% chance at making the playoffs. 

5) A few days after the loss to the Pats, Sean Payton announced that he was benching Russell Wilson in favor Jarret Stidham. Payton said the move was to give the offense a spark, but we all know the economic reality of his contract played a major role. Stidham helped Denver defeat the depleted Chargers in Week 17 to get to 8-8 but Denver was eliminated from playoff contention by the end of that day's games. In the meaningless Week 18 game, Denver lost to the Raiders to finish 8-9 on the year. Another year and another losing season.

6) Personally, there was a time after that five game winning streak that I really felt that Denver was going to sneak into the playoffs at 10-7 or even 9-8. I got my hopes up, but it just didn't materialize. I still feel that there were some really good moments this season. It was the first time I was actually proud to wear my Broncos gear around town in the past few years.

7) As far as Russell Wilson goes, he certainly played better this year than last year. He had 26 TDs and only 8 INTs and was in the top 10 in passer rating when he got benched. He led to comeback wins over the Bears, Bills,  andVikings. He was managing the game and doing just enough off script and in the red-zone to help the Broncos win. You could tell that Sean Payton dialed back a lot of his offense after Denver started 1-5, but they were winning games and it was working. He wasn't playing like he did in 2019 or 2020, but again it was working. Obviously, Sean Payton didn't see that and pulled the plug once they fell to 7-8 after the Pats game. Now, it looks like he will be released in March and Denver will eat over $80 million in cap hits. Denver went to Russ in October to try to get him to delay his guarantee in March for 2025, but he declined. I get why Denver approached him and I get why Russ declined. He is not playing at a level that commands the salary he was supposed to get paid the next few years, but why pay him to go away? It is not like they are picking #1 overall and have a young QB ready to go. The whole thing is just a disaster and didn't work out-which is really depressing. I feel like they should have just let Russ finish out the year as the starter, and make a decision on him in March. Sean Payton should have tried to work with him as his QB, and even maybe still drafted a QB in the first round for the future. That's my take on the situation. When the Broncos traded for Wilson, I thought it was going to catapult the franchise back into the playoffs and contend for AFC West titles. It didn't work out, and I was dead wrong. Now, the Broncos have to deal with the ramifications.

8) Ultimately, the Broncos were right there this year, but losing home games to the Raiders, Commanders, Jets, and Patriots doomed their season. They started 1-5, and finished 7-4, but it just was too much of a hole for this team to dig out of. The other part was that the Raiders finished 8-9 and fired Josh McDaniels mid season, and the Chargers finished 5-12 and fired Brandon Staley during the season. The Chiefs won the division at 11-7, but they were vunerable all year, and this was the year to actually catch the Chiefs, and the Broncos didn't do it. 

9) There Broncos opponents are set for 2024: Home games include KC, Las Vegas, Chargers, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina, and Indy. Away games include: KC, Las Vegas, Chargers, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, and the Jets.

10) As for the outlook for next year, the Broncos will pick 12th overall in the draft. Sean Payton now has a full year of coaching this team under his belt, and there will be names that will get shipped off via trade or release. The biggest and most important question the Broncos have is what they will do at QB. Russell Wilson will get released in March. The Broncos have Jarret Stidham under contract for another year, but he looks like a backup/spot starter at best. We know he isn't the long-term answer. The Broncos can draft a QB in the first round, but they don't have the draft capital to move up to number 1,2, or 3 and draft a guy like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels. At #12, they are looking at options like Michael Penix, Bo Nix, or J.J. McCarthy. As far as a free agent veteran, Denver is looking at options like Jimmy Garoppolo or Ryan Tannehill. Again, not the greatest outlook for Broncos fans. Every other roster move they make will be subject to what cap availability they have with a lot of dead cap going to Russell Wilson contract. The outlook for this offseason is not the brightest to say the least.

11) For now, I am putting to Broncos 2023 season to bed. I'm not going to worry or think about their offseason moves until the time arrives. In March, I see what they do in free agency. In April, I see what they do in the draft. Other than that, I am not going to get too high or too low on any of the rumors and innuendo about this team. I am going to take a break from Broncos news and coverage for a while and decompress after another disappointing year.

Broncos-Raiders and Week 18 Picks

The Broncos beat the Chargers last week 16-9 to improve to 8-8 but with all the other results that day they were eliminated from playoff contention. Denver heads to Las Vegas this week to take on the Raiders and although they will be missing the playoffs for the 8th consecutive year, there are some things to play for. First, they have lost seven straight games to the Raiders and have not beaten them since 2019. Next, they have a chance to have a winning record for the first time since 2016. That would be a significant achievement for this team under Sean Payton's first year as head coach. I would really like the Broncos to win this game and knock off the Raiders and finish 9-8. I think they could serve as a building block into next year. We have seen this happen with teams in the past (2022 Lions). I'm not too worried about draft positioning. If the Broncos want to move up a few spots in the draft to get their guy, then they will do it regardless. It might be meaningless in the playoff race, but this game means a lot in my opinion.

Prediction: Denver (+3.5) over LAS VEGAS

Final Score: Broncos-19 Raiders-17

Now, onto the picks for Week 18...

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1

Overall Record: 130-107-18

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 

BALTIMORE (+3.5) over Pittsburgh: The Ravens have locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and are not playing Lamar Jackson and other starters. The Steelers need a win and help to get into the playoffs. I can see the Ravens keeping it close with their backups, the Steelers eventually winning, but missing out on the playoffs due to other results.

Houston (-1) over INDIANAPOLIS: The winner of this game clinches a playoff berth. I think Houston wins this game and gets a surprising berth into the AFC playoffs.

Tampa Bay (-4) over CAROLINA: The Bucs win and clinch the NFC South and the 4th seed.

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland: The Browns have nothing to play for and are locked into the 5 seed. They are resting starters, and the Bengals want to win to finish 9-8 and look ahead to next year when Joe Burrow comes back.

DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota: The Lions play in the early window on Sunday, so they will play hard not knowing what Dallas and Philly do later in the day. The Vikings are barely hanging onto playoff hopes, but the Lions will take care of business and be the 3 seed in the NFC.

NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Jets: The Pats are 4-12 and playing for a top draft pick but with all the uncertainty surround Bill Belichick's future, I see them playing hard to win for him in Foxboro. Plus, he hates the Jets and wants to make sure they finish 6-11.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta: The Saints can make the playoffs with a win and TB loss or losses by the Packers and Seahawks. They will win, finish 9-8, but just miss out.

TENNESSEE (+3.5) over Jacksonville: This game is hard to predict with the status of Trevor Lawrence up in the air. I think it will be close and come down to the wire. The Titans will play hard, but I think Jacksonville finds a way to win and clinch the AFC South.

ARIZONA (+3) over Seattle: Seattle blew a huge opportunity with their loss to the Steelers at home this week. They need to win and have Green Bay lose to make the playoffs. The Cardinals have played hard all year long, and I think they will find a way to kill Seattle's chances on Sunday.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Chicago: A lot of people like the Bears to win this game in Lambeau. At 7-9, the Bears have played well the last month. The Packers need a win to clinch a playoff spot. I think it is a close game, but I have a feeling the Packers will find a way to grab that 7 seed in the NFC.

Kansas City (+3.5) over CHARGERS: The Chiefs are locked into the 3 seed and resting Pat Mahomes and other starters, but I think their backups will play well and defeat the Chargers anyway.

GIANTS (+5.5) over Philadelphia: I think the Eagles will win this game, but they will pull some starters once they see that Dallas is beating Washington and Philly won't be able to win the NFC East. Philly gets the 5 seed in the NFC.

Rams (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Rams have little incentive to play hard, and they are resting a lot of starters, but they could secure the 6 seed with a win. The 49ers have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up and will rest starters.

Dallas (-12) over WASHINGTON: Dallas is playing for the 2 seed, so they will play hard this week. Washington is playing for one of top 2-3 picks in the draft. The Cowboys will roll, clinch the NFC East, and lock up the #2 seed in the NFC.

Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI: The last game of the entire 2023 NFL season is in Miami as the Bills need a win to get a playoff spot. Miami is all banged up, and they already clinched a playoff spot. The Bills are desperate, and I could see them putting their best effort of the season here in this spot. The Bills win, clinch the AFC East, bump all the way to the 2 seed and knock the Dolphins down to the 6 seed.

Playoff Seeds and Matchups Based on My Predictions:

AFC

1-Baltimore

(2) Buffalo vs (7) Houston

(3) Kansas City vs (6) Miami

(4) Jacksonville vs (5) Cleveland

NFC

1-San Francisco

(2) Dallas vs (7) Green Bay

(3) Detroit vs (6) LA Rams

(4) Tampa Bay vs (5) Philadelphia

Wild Card Weekend Schedule Predictions

Saturday 1/13

4:30pm EST (NBC) Cleveland at Jacksonville

8:00pm EST (Peacock) LA Rams at Detroit

Sunday 1/14

1:00pm (CBS) Houston at Buffalo

4:30pm (FOX) Green Bay at Dallas

8:15pm (NBC) Miami at Kansas City

Monday 1/15

8:15pm (ESPN) Philadelphia at Tampa Bay