The top seeds now get into the action as the NFL hits the Divisional Round Playoffs. Two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. The #1 seed in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers come off their bye and host the #7 seeded Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. Before that game, the #1 seed in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, host the #4 seeded Houston Texans. On Sunday, the Lions host the Buccaneers in the first matchup, and the Bills host the Chiefs in the nightcap on Sunday night. Out of the eight teams left in the Divisional Round, only three of these teams were in this round last year (SF, Buffalo, and KC), so that means there are five new teams this year in the Divisional Round. Three of them weren't even in the playoffs last year (Lions, Packers, and Texans), so things can change quickly in the NFL year-to-year.
Final Regular Season Overall Record: 143-110-18
Last Week's Playoff Record: 3-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
AFC Divisional Playoff
(4) Houston at (1) Baltimore
A Case for the Texans: The Texans can play fast and loose like they did last week. No one expected them to get to the Divisional Round this year, and now that they are here, they can play up the "Cinderella"
role against the big favorite on the road. C.J. Stroud was amazing last week in his playoff debut. If he stays hot, then he can carry this team to an upset on his back. Maybe Houston learned from their Week 1 drubbing in Baltimore, and they can use that as they prepare for this matchup. The Colts and Browns already went into Baltimore and upset them and won this year. I like their chances with Stroud-even on the road- to at least keep this game close.
A Case for the Ravens: The last time the Ravens were the #1 seed was in 2019, and Lamar Jackson was the league MVP that year. They got shocked by the Titans in the Divisional Round that year. This year, they are the #1 seed again, and Lamar is in line to be the MVP again. Can they get upset again at home in the Divisional Round coming off a bye? That seems hard to fathom. Lamar is playing at such a high level right now, and the team is peaking at the right time. They buried the 49ers and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17 to secure the 1 seed. The bye should help them rest and get healthy. Everything points to them getting on a run and getting to a Super Bowl.
Prediction: Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE: The Ravens are going to win the game, but I like Houston to keep it closer than the spread. Look for a close game throughout and I could see the Ravens fans having some nervous moments, but look for Baltimore to close it out and advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since the 2012 season.
Final Score: Ravens-30 Texans-22
NFC Divisional Playoff
(7) Green Bay at (1) San Francisco
A Case for the Packers: They are also playing great right now and are riding high after their upset win in Dallas in the Wild Card round. They can play fast, loose, and relaxed as all the pressure will be on the 49ers. Jordan Love is playing great right now, and he was tremendous in the win over Dallas. If he stays hot, they can give the 49ers a scare. Plus, Matt LaFluer was a part of Kyle Shanahan's coaching tree, so he knows a lot about Shanny's scheme and tendencies. After winning in Dallas last week, I don't think the Packers will be intimidated heading to San Fran, and they will have a lot of confidence that they can pull off another upset.
.A Case for the 49ers: They have so much talent on both sides of the ball. I like this matchup from an offensive standpoint for the Niners. I think they will have too many weapons and plays for the Packers defense to handle. Shanahan has had extra time to come up with something on offense, and I could just see the Niners overwhelming the Packers from the start. Then, they get a lead and the Niners defense takes over and makes Jordan Love's life miserable. Sometimes we can get fooled by a team when they look so good in the Wild Card round, then it comes crashing down the next playoff game. I think this game could be a good example of that.
Prediction: Green Bay (+9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers will win the game and win it comfortably, but I could see back door potential for the Packers here. This game won't be as close as the score and the Niners will advance to their third straight NFC Championship Game.
Final Score: 49ers-31 Packers-23
NFC Divisional Playoff
(4) Tampa Bay at (3) Detroit
A Case for the Bucs: Really no pressure on the Bucs in this spot. They've accomplished a lot already this season. They finished 9-8, won the NFC South, and won a home playoff game by pasting the Eagles 32-9. Baker Mayfield has had a resurgence in his career this year in Tampa, and the vibes are good. Anything else that happens from here is gravy for them. They lost earlier in the year to Detroit, so maybe they can learn something from that game. They are playing with house money and all the pressure falls onto the Lions, so the Bucs could be dangerous in this spot.
A Case for the Lions: They are the better team between these two teams. They are at home and you saw how loud Ford Field was last week in the wild card win over the Rams. They got the monkey off their back with the playoff win ending a 32 year drought, so now they can go out and play. The game last week against the Rams was going to be challenging on the field and mentally for them and they got past it. The Lions offense is really good at home and they get off to quick starts-which could throttle the Bucs. I would expect a big-time effort by the Lions in this spot.
Prediction: DETROIT (-6) over Tampa Bay: The Lions win their second straight playoff game, and advance to the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991.
Final Score: Lions-30 Buccaneers-17
AFC Divisional Playoff
(3) Kansas City at (2) Buffalo
A Case for the Chiefs: They have Patrick Mahomes. As long as Mahomes is back there, you have to like the Chiefs chances. They also have their running game going, and that will be a factor in a cold environment in Buffalo on Sunday night. The Chiefs defense has been really good all year long, and I could see them forcing the Bills into stupid mistakes. The Bills are pretty banged up too, and that will favor the Chiefs. Until the Chiefs are knocked out, you really have to think they might go on another Super Bowl run.
A Case for the Bills: The Bills were left for dead at 6-6, but they rattled off five wins in a row to finish 11-6 and win the AFC East. They backed that up by burying the Steelers at home in the Wild Card round. Now, the Chiefs come to town, and the Bills can get PLAYOFF revenge on KC after losing to them in the 2020 AFC Championship Game and the 2021 AFC Divisional Playoff. Those games were both in KC, and now the Chiefs come to Orchard Park to face the Bills. That is a big factor. This will be Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game. The Bills are due to slay the dragon, knock off the Chiefs and head to the AFC Title game.
Prediction: Kansas City (+2.5) over BUFFALO: This is the best game of the weekend without a doubt. I love that this game is Sunday night and the last game of the weekend. As much as I want to see Buffalo win, and I think they are due to knock off the Chiefs, I can see KC and Pat Mahomes finding a way and pulling off the upset.
Final Score: Chiefs-24 Bills-20
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