It's been a long time since I was able to do a preview of a Broncos playoff game. It feels good to be able to do that this week. The Broncos head to Buffalo on Sunday to take on the #2 seed Bills in Orchard Park. There is nothing like that anticipation of a playoff game in the NFL the week leading up to it. You are constantly thinking about the game and by the end of the week you have played out all the different scenarios of how it is going to go. You have yourself convinced that your team is going to win and you just can't wait for kickoff. That is feeling I'm having as this week went on about the Broncos. This will be a very difficult task for the Broncos to go into Buffalo and take down the heavily favored Bills and Josh Allen. Here are the storylines going into this game and a prediction......
1) The Broncos are playing with house money. No one predicted Denver would make the playoffs this year. No one saw this as a 10 win team. No one expected this result out of the Broncos in year two of the Sean Payton regime, but here they are. There is no pressure on Denver in this game. They can play fast and loose as the big underdog and lay it all out there and see what happens.
2) On the flip side, all the pressure is on the Bills. Buffalo has to get to the Super Bowl or at least the AFC Championship Game this year or it is a failure of a season. They can't go out in the Wild Card round at home as heavy favorites. Maybe that forces them to play tight?
3) Can the Broncos actually stop Josh Allen? If Denver has any chance to win this game, they have to figure out a way to contain Josh Allen. He will probably win the MVP this year, but Denver has to find a way to frustrate him and make him commit turnovers like they did in the Monday Night game last year in Buffalo.
4) Will the spotlight of a playoff game get to Bo Nix? Nix has exceeded all expectations this year, but once the playoffs begin, the stakes get so much higher. Hopefully, Nix is up to the challenge in a tough environment
5) Speaking of environments, the Broncos have not played a really cold game this year. That will change on Sunday in Buffalo. They are expecting a high of 29 degrees on Sunday and there is always the threat of snow. It worries me because I don't know how the Broncos will handle a real, cold-weather game in the elements.
6) The last time Denver played in a playoff game was Super Bowl 50 in February of 2106. Von Miller was the Super Bowl 50 MVP. Now, Miller is a member of the Bills, and he will be going up against the Broncos in their first playoff game since that Super Bowl. That's a pretty cool thing to me.
7) We have seen some monumental upsets in the playoffs in the past. Last year, Green Bay went into Dallas as the 7 seed and shocked the #2 seeded Cowboys. The 1987 Divisional Playoff comes to mind when the Vikings went into Candlestick Park and upset the 49ers. Of course, Denver remembers when the Jaguars went into Mile High and shocked the Broncos in the 1996 Divisional Round. If the Broncos upset the Bills, that would qualify as one of the major upsets in NFL playoff history.
8) The bottom line is that if you are making the case for the Broncos to win this one it would the following formula: Defense limits Josh Allen and gets turnovers, Bills play tight, Broncos play loose, and Bo Nix has a "take the leap" kind of game.
Prediction: Denver (+8.5) over BUFFALO
Final Score: Bills-29 Broncos-22
Now, onto the picks for Wild Card Weekend....
Last Week's Record: 11-4-1
Final Regular Season Overall Record: 143-116-10
(Home Team in CAPS)
AFC Wild Card Game
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Houston Texans
A Case for the Chargers: They are probably the better team at this point in the season. Jim Harbaugh is great coach that will have them ready. Justin Herbert is playing at a high level, and can win this game themselves. Weather and homefield advantage shouldn't be too much of a factor in Houston's favor.
A Case for the Texans: A lot of people are picking the Chargers to win. Houston feels like an afterthought at this point. They still have C.J. Stroud and even though he had a little bit of a regression this year, he is still a really good player that can win this game himself. Their defense should be able to match up with the Chargers weapons and DeMeco Ryans is a helluva coach and he will have his team ready.
Prediction: Chargers (-3) over HOUSTON: Justin Herbert makes just enough plays to pull out the road win to give the Chargers their first playoff win since 2018.
Final Score: Chargers-24 Texans-20
AFC Wild Card Game
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers at (3) Baltimore Ravens
A Case for the Steelers: After losing four straight games to end the season at 10-7, everyone is counting out the Steelers. They can use that as motivation, and you know Mike Tomlin will be doing that. They will be comfortable in the underdog role, and they know Baltimore inside and out. The pressure will be on the Ravens and that will help Pittsburgh.
A Case for the Ravens: They are the better team right now as evidenced by their 34-17 win over the Steelers in Week 16. They are at home and the game is Saturday night, so the home crowd will be rocking in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is playing at a MVP level once again, and he might just be too good for the Steelers to handle.
Prediction: Steelers (+9.5) over BALTIMORE: The Steelers will keep it closer than people think, but in the end it will be too much Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will advance to the Divisional Round for the fourth time in six years.
Final Score: Ravens-26 Steelers-20
NFC Wild Card Game
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Philadelphia Eagles
A Case for the Packers: They can play fast and loose like they did last year when they went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys as the 7th seed. Jordan Love has won a playoff game on the road already, and Matt LaFleur will have his team ready to play. Maybe Jalen Hurts is a little rusty after missing a few games with a concussion. Everyone is picking the Eagles and the pressure is all on Philly.
A Case for the Eagles: They are the better team, and they have the better defense and are at home. They have that all in their favor. I think Vic Fangio will dial up some defensive schemes that could frustrate Jordan Love. Also, Saquon Barkley can literally take this game over himself. It seems like we are headed to a Philly-Detroit showdown in the NFC Title Game.
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA (-4) over Green Bay: Philly takes care of business at home, and heads to the Divisional Round for the second time in three years.
Final Score: Eagles-30 Packers-20
NFC Wild Card Game
(6) Washington Commanders at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A case for the Commanders: They have Jayden Daniels, and he can win this game outright. I don't think the moment will be too big for him. Dan Quinn has done a great job with this group this year, and they will come in with no pressure at all. They can play fast and loose and take chances. They definitely have a solid chance to win this game-even on the road.
A case for the Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield is playing at a MVP level. He can carry this offense to a victory. I think the homefield advantage should be a factor in this game in Tampa's favor. The sexy pick is Washington in this game, and that makes me think this is going the other way and Tampa will win.
Prediction: TAMPA BAY (-3) over Washington: Good back and forth game, but Mayfield carries the Bucs to a win and they advance to the Divisional Round for the second straight year.
Final Score: Buccaneers-26 Commanders-18
NFC Wild Card Game
(5) Minnesota Vikings at (4) Los Angeles Rams
A case for the Vikings: The Vikings finished at 14-3 and are a well-rounded team. Their defense should play in this game. Sam Darnold had a terrific season, and if he plays well, the Vikings will have a solid chance to advance. Kevin O'Connell is a really good head coach, and he will have his team ready to play. I don't think the homefield will be factor because the Vikings fans really travel well-especially with this game in LA.
A case for the Rams: They beat the Vikings earlier in the year on a Thursday night game, so they know they can win. I think resting Matthew Stafford and a bunch of their key players in Week 18 will help them in this game. They will be rested and ready. Sean McVay is such a good coach that he will have the Rams ready to go. I think there is a belief that if the Rams win this one, they can go on a run in these playoffs.
Prediction: Minnesota (-1) over LA RAMS: This might be the game of the weekend. The Vikings pull one out late and advance to the Divisional Round for the first time since 2019.
Final Score: Vikings-25 Rams-22
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