Finally, my favorite blog entry of the year is here. After an entire offseason including the Combine, Free Agency, the Draft, Minicamps, OTAs, and Training Camp, I can finally post my 2009 NFL Preview and Predictions. Let me first explain why I love making predictions on the NFL season. It has been something that I have done since 1994. How do I remember that it started in '94? That was the summer that I had my first job. I worked in the backroom of an old card store packing and stuffing the Sunday newspapers. The only perk of the job was that the owner of the store gave me free magazines every Sunday after I worked. That Summer every week, I would go home with Pro Football Weekly, The Sporting News, Baseball America, and every NFL preview magazine that you existed at that time. I also got access to few dirty magazines as well, but that is a story for another forum. Anyway, I read all of these NFL magazines, and I decided to make predictions for the 1994 NFL season myself. I wrote them down on looseleaf before the season started, and I would see how I did at the end of the season. My 1994 picks didn't go so well: I had Denver beating the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. That was the last time I would pick Denver to go to the Super Bowl. Although my predictions didn't really pan out, I had fun doing it, so every August I would sit down and read all the NFL preview magazines, and make predictions. I guess I would call it my little guilty pleasure. I have done it every year since that Summer. Last year, I started this blog, and I was excited to be able to put down these predictions in a proper forum. Now my predictions post will be my favorite post of the year. I love doing it. Predicting the NFL is so hard and that is why it is so much fun. It is almost impossible to get most of your predictions right, but it is a challenge I thoroughly enjoy. Before I get to my 2009 NFC predictions, let me explain the formula for predicting an upcoming NFL season. I went over this last year, but let me just rehash it: At least 6 of the 12 playoff teams will be different from the year before. Last year 5 out of 12 made it back, only New England missed out to prevent 6 out of 12, and the Pats finished 11-5. Also, at least 4 of the 8 division winners will be different. Last year, only 2 out of 8 division winners repeated, but I expect this year more division winners will hold serve. Also, expect some teams that finished with 10 or more losses to jump up and make the playoffs in 2009. This happens every year, and 2008 was a record year with Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta all getting into the playoffs after terrible seasons in 2007. Allright with all the clerical information out of the way here we go with the NFC predictions for 2009:
NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): I think the Eagles are primed and ready for a big season in 2009. I like what the Eagles added to their offense (Macling,McCoy, Peters), and I think McNabb has enough weapons (Westbrook, Celek, Jackson, and Curtis) to create a lot of offense. The passing of Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson is both tragic and troublesome. They will miss his schemes and presence. Also, losing Brian Dawkins will hurt, but I think the Eagles defense will do enough and get enough stops in big spots to get the job done. In a tough division, Philly is the best team and wins the East.
2) Dallas (10-6): The Cowboys are ready to get back into the playoffs. Dallas is a good team that fell apart down the stretch. They have a very good defense, and I think losing Terrell Owens won't be a major issue for the offense. Remember, TO had one of his worst seasons last year. Throw in the fact that Tony Romo will be without the distractions of Owens, and I expect a lot out of Romo this year. There wasn't a lot of noise out of Dallas this Summer and that is a good thing. The Cowboys get into the playoffs as a Wild Card.
3) New York Giants (8-8): Every expert thinks the Giants are the favorite in the NFC. On paper, that is true, but I just have a feeling about this. The Giants have been in the playoffs every year since 2005. It is hard to make the playoffs 5 years in a row. Not having a really viable replacement for Plaxico Burres will be an issue all year long for Eli and the Giant offense. I guess I going out on a limb, but I think the Giants take a step back this year. Maybe injuries play a role, or they just lose some close games, but I see the Giants missing out of the playoffs.
4) Washington Redskins (5-11): I am not a big fan of Jim Zorn as a NFL Head Coach. The Skins obviously wanted to upgrade their QB position and didn't, so there will be a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell this year. Their offensive line will struggle, and their defense can only do so much. The Redskins struggle in 2009, and it sets the stage for Mike Shanahan to become their new Head Coach in 2010.
NFC NORTH
1) Chicago Bears (12-4): The Bears added Jay Cutler and that trade will pay off for the Bears in 2009. Forget about the receivers, a big time QB will improve the offense and the receivers, and Cutler is that big time QB. He has good weapsons around him (Hester, Forte, and Olson), and a good offense will help that defense. The Bears will win the NFC North, and Cutler will be an MVP candidate.
2) Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Packers are back for a bounce back year in 2009. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal, and they improved their defense (Raji, Mathews, new DC). The Packers schedule is favorable, and I think they will battle it out with the Bears for the division title all the way into December. Green Bay gets back to the playoffs in 2009.
3) Minnesota Vikings (8-8): The whole Brett Favre saga was draining on every one in the organization. Even if Favre signed with the Vikings, I still don't think they would have made the playoffs. Now they are stuck with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Their defense is getting older and it is hard to keep that level of play on the defensive side going every year. The Vikings take a step back and miss the playoffs.
4) Detroit Lions (3-13): When you go 0-16 and clean house, the only place to go is up. The Lions are building a new program in Detroit, and new coach Jim Schwartz needs time to develop his program. Add in first overall pick, Matthew Stafford and any amount of victories will be considered a success. Detroit is a few years away, but in the NFL who knows. I think 3 wins would be a good stepping stone for the Lions in '09.
NFC SOUTH
1) Atlanta Falcons (11-5): I struggled with who would win this division in 2009, but I settled on the Falcons. Matt Ryan is the goods at QB, and having Michael Turner will help that offense. Don't forget that they added TE Tony Gonzalez. The trio of Ryan, Turner, and Gonzalez with Roddy White is a nice group of offensive skill players. John Abraham is a force on defense. The Falcons won't sneak up on anyone this year, but in a wide open division, I think they will get the job done and win the South.
2) New Orleans (9-7): I originally had the Saints penciled in as my division winner, but I changed that. I picked the Saints to get very far last year, and they burned me. I am not going to invest in them again. They will be good, especially on offense (Brees, Thomas, Bush, Colston, Moore, and Shockey), but I am not sold on their defense. I know they added a good DC in Greg Williams, but I'm still not sold. I see the Saints leading the division all year, then fading at the end. No playoffs for the Saints in '09, and Sean Payton on the hot seat.
3) Carolina Panthers (8-8): I think that crushing loss to Arizona last year will have an effect on this team. You know they will play hard, run the ball, and play solid defense, but I think the pressure will be on Jake Delhomme. I don't trust Delhomme, and the Panthers will take a step back in 2009 and miss the playoffs.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): The Bucs collapse at the end of last season was brutal, and it lead to the firing of Jon Gruden and the beginning of the Raheem Morris Era. I don't know if I can buy into Morris as a bonafide Head Coach in the NFL. I think the Bucs are rebuilding. I think they will start out slow, and maybe show some progress as the season goes on, but the Bucs are in for a rough 2009.
NFC WEST
1) Seattle Seahawks (10-6): I love the Seahawks as a bounce back team to win the NFC West. Matt Hasselback is back and healthy, and I love their WR Corps (Houshmanzadah, Burleson, and Branch). Their defense should rebound from a bad year in 2008. Also, they have one of the rare home field advantages left in the NFL. Jim Mora will do a nice job with this team, and he will be considered a coach of the year candidate by November. Seattle rebounds and wins the weak NFC West.
2) San Francisco 49ers (8-8): Mike Singletary will be able to motivate this team, and they will play hard. Their problem will be the QB spot. If it is Shaun Hill or Alex Smith, I don't see them getting the production they need to make the playoffs. The Niners could suprise this year, but I think they are a year away.
3) Arizona Cardinals (7-9): The annual "Super Bowl Hangover" hits the Cards this year. All of a sudden the Cardinals are relevant, and I think they take a step back this season. I think Kurt Warner will have trouble staying healthy-just a hunch- and I think they will get a lot of teams' A-Game. The Cards struggle and miss out on the playoffs.
4) St. Louis Rams (4-12): The Steve Spagnuolo Era begins in St. Louis. The Ram defense was awful last year, and I think Spags will help them a little bit, but he needs more time to build it. Steven Jackson could have a big year, but I think Marc Bulger will struggle. I think the Rams are a year away from making a playoff push.
2009 NFC Playoff Predictions:
1) Chicago (12-4)
2) Philly (11-5)
3) Atlanta (11-5)
4) Seattle (10-6)
5)Dallas (10-6)
6)Green Bay (10-6)
Wild Card Round:
3-Atlanta over 6-Green Bay (Matt Ryan gets his first playoff victory)
5-Dallas over 4-Seattle (Dallas gets first playoff win since 1996)
Divisional Round:
1-Chicago over 5-Dallas (Cutler gets his first playoff win)
2-Philly over 3-Atlanta (Philly gets to 6th NFC Title game since 2001)
NFC Championship:
2-Philly over 1-Chicago (Reid and McNabb win the NFC Title for the late Jim Johnson)
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Lombardi's Take on McDaniels
The best analyst out there, Michael Lombardi, gave his impression of Josh McDaniels and evaluated what lies ahead for the new Head Coach of the Denver Broncos:
BACKGROUND
When he was hired by the Broncos in January, McDaniels, 33, was the youngest coach in the NFL (Tampa Bay’s Raheem Morris, 32, has since assumed that distinction). McDaniels was born to coach: His father, Thom, is a successful high school coach in Ohio. Josh, after a successful playing career at John Carroll University, got his first job working for Nick Saban at Michigan State as a graduate assistant. On Saban’s recommendation, he moved to New England to work in the personnel department before transitioning into coaching. In the Bill Belichick program, cplayers and plays. Working for two of the top coaches in the game and learning the lessons taught by his successful father have helped McDaniels on his fast track to coaching in the NFL.
LES STECKEL EFFECT
McDaniels has full control of the roster and the full backing of owner Pat Bowlen. This support allowed McDaniels to make the call on trading quarterback Jay Cutler and starting his regime with Kyle Orton at the oaches and scouts at times become interchangeable parts, learning the essentials of both helm.
When McDaniels took the job in Denver, many in the NFL viewed it as the best job in the league because the team had a budding star at quarterback. But for whatever reason, it didn’t work. Now, McDaniels must make it work with Orton as he installs his unique offense, which will feature multiple looks, formations and packages.
With the Cutler trade, he got the team’s attention – there’s a new sheriff in town. With the power to hire and fire, McDaniels will have the players’ full attention when he stands in front of them at team meetings. There won’t be any question who’s in charge, and with a good, solid foundation of veteran players on the team, there will be cooperation between players and coaches.
THEY DIDN’T TELL ME THIS WOULD HAPPEN
McDaniels inherited a team built to score points but a defense that’s poorly constructed. Since 2003, the Broncos have drafted eight first-day (rounds 1-3) defensive players and have one starter to show for those efforts. In the 2006 and 2008 seasons, they didn’t select a defensive player on the first day. It’s no wonder the 2008 season was so bad on defense. It’s hard to play good defense when you don’t address your needs. As you look over the Broncos’ defensive roster, there are only two draft picks from previous years in the starting lineup. It’s hard to mix and match defensive talent and expect to put a quality product on the field. Elvis Dumervil is counted as one of the draft’s starters (D.J. Williams is the other), and I’m not sure he can hold down a starting position as he makes the transition from defensive end to outside linebacker. Dumervil is just an average rusher against bad tackles and is not very effective when the competition rises. He would have a hard time starting for many quality defensive teams in the NFL, which is always the key assessment.
WHAT AM I GOING TO DO ON GAME DAY?
McDaniels is going to be a very busy man on game day, but despite of his youthful appearance, he’ll be ready for the challenge. Having spent time roaming the sidelines with Belichick is going to serve him well in terms of game preparation. The key to being effective on game day is being able to visualize the game before the game. Good game managers know the exact pace that will be required to win the game. Some games might be field position games, others might be offensive battles, but whatever is decided before the game, the key will be to rehearse those elements in practice so the actual calls are easy to make.
With McDaniels making the calls on offense, someone will need to be in his ear to help him with replays and other situations. Having a bad defense can place the play-caller at a disadvantage because there’s a fear that if you punt, you give away points. So there’s a sense of desperation with each call, wanting to make sure you don’t give the ball back without scoring some points.
I KNOW WHEN TO PUNT...I THINK
McDaniels is talking about being versatile with his offense, which means knowing that who’s on the field will dictate what kind of offense they run. When RB Knowshon Moreno is in the game, the Broncos might be spread, attempting to create a loose play attack. When LaMont Jordan is in the game, they might want to power teams with their run game and eat the clock. And based on the level of excellence in camp, other roles will be discovered. Nevertheless, the key for the opponent will be trying to figure out how they will attack your defense, not necessarily how they attacked the opponent the week before.
Last year, for example, even though the Patriots were not a power team, they played the Cardinals at home in Week 16 and started with two tight ends and two backs (with guard Ross Hochstein as the fullback). They knew the Cardinals did not adjust well to that formation, allowing the Pats to control the game and score four of the first five times they touched the ball. Controlling the game did not mean they ran the ball out of that formation, it just meant it gave the Patriots an advantage in both the run and pass elements of their offense. The key to being multiple on offense is not running new plays each week, but rather running the same plays from formations and personnel groups that specifically bother the defense.
McDaniels will be different each week. At times, he will be very aggressive with his calls; at other times, he will be very deliberate. He will be a student of how to give his team a chance to win games and will excel in this area.
I WISH WE HAD DONE...
There will be no doubt that this year the Broncos might take some steps to improve their defense, but they will still be too many players short of being consistent. I really believe they’ll regret not getting more beef for their defensive line in the draft; in fact, they should have dedicated more of the draft to the defensive line. Picking one defensive lineman for a team as bad in the defensive line as they are was a mistake. It will set the recovery time back. They’re so thin in the defensive line, it might get ugly in October if injuries occur to their front line players.
Drafting three defensive backs might look good now, especially since every starter in the secondary is over 30 years old, but with no pressure, they’ll be exposed no matter how young or old. Second-round pick Alphonso Smith (5-9, 193) worries me with his size at corner, especially when opponents get into the red area and try to find the smallest corner to throw the fade.
I AM GOING TO REMEMBER THIS ONE...
When October comes rolling around, the Broncos will be tested physically on both sides of the ball. Starting Oct. 4 with the Cowboys, followed by the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Steelers, Denver’s depth will really be tested. Injuries will creep up from playing these five physical games, and the Broncos will be thankful their bye comes after the first three, giving them time to heal their wounds.
THINGS WILL BE DIFFERENT NEXT YEAR
McDaniels made a bold move trading Cutler, but by next season he will either be a hero or on the hot seat, depending on how his team plays. He controls his future with his ability to coach, lead the team and evaluate. The key for the team in 2010 will be finding out whether McDaniels has the Belichick ability to evaluate players or if he’s like other coaches from the tree, unable to handle that key element. My sense is McDaniels will be a very good coach for years to come, and much better in 2010.
BACKGROUND
When he was hired by the Broncos in January, McDaniels, 33, was the youngest coach in the NFL (Tampa Bay’s Raheem Morris, 32, has since assumed that distinction). McDaniels was born to coach: His father, Thom, is a successful high school coach in Ohio. Josh, after a successful playing career at John Carroll University, got his first job working for Nick Saban at Michigan State as a graduate assistant. On Saban’s recommendation, he moved to New England to work in the personnel department before transitioning into coaching. In the Bill Belichick program, cplayers and plays. Working for two of the top coaches in the game and learning the lessons taught by his successful father have helped McDaniels on his fast track to coaching in the NFL.
LES STECKEL EFFECT
McDaniels has full control of the roster and the full backing of owner Pat Bowlen. This support allowed McDaniels to make the call on trading quarterback Jay Cutler and starting his regime with Kyle Orton at the oaches and scouts at times become interchangeable parts, learning the essentials of both helm.
When McDaniels took the job in Denver, many in the NFL viewed it as the best job in the league because the team had a budding star at quarterback. But for whatever reason, it didn’t work. Now, McDaniels must make it work with Orton as he installs his unique offense, which will feature multiple looks, formations and packages.
With the Cutler trade, he got the team’s attention – there’s a new sheriff in town. With the power to hire and fire, McDaniels will have the players’ full attention when he stands in front of them at team meetings. There won’t be any question who’s in charge, and with a good, solid foundation of veteran players on the team, there will be cooperation between players and coaches.
THEY DIDN’T TELL ME THIS WOULD HAPPEN
McDaniels inherited a team built to score points but a defense that’s poorly constructed. Since 2003, the Broncos have drafted eight first-day (rounds 1-3) defensive players and have one starter to show for those efforts. In the 2006 and 2008 seasons, they didn’t select a defensive player on the first day. It’s no wonder the 2008 season was so bad on defense. It’s hard to play good defense when you don’t address your needs. As you look over the Broncos’ defensive roster, there are only two draft picks from previous years in the starting lineup. It’s hard to mix and match defensive talent and expect to put a quality product on the field. Elvis Dumervil is counted as one of the draft’s starters (D.J. Williams is the other), and I’m not sure he can hold down a starting position as he makes the transition from defensive end to outside linebacker. Dumervil is just an average rusher against bad tackles and is not very effective when the competition rises. He would have a hard time starting for many quality defensive teams in the NFL, which is always the key assessment.
WHAT AM I GOING TO DO ON GAME DAY?
McDaniels is going to be a very busy man on game day, but despite of his youthful appearance, he’ll be ready for the challenge. Having spent time roaming the sidelines with Belichick is going to serve him well in terms of game preparation. The key to being effective on game day is being able to visualize the game before the game. Good game managers know the exact pace that will be required to win the game. Some games might be field position games, others might be offensive battles, but whatever is decided before the game, the key will be to rehearse those elements in practice so the actual calls are easy to make.
With McDaniels making the calls on offense, someone will need to be in his ear to help him with replays and other situations. Having a bad defense can place the play-caller at a disadvantage because there’s a fear that if you punt, you give away points. So there’s a sense of desperation with each call, wanting to make sure you don’t give the ball back without scoring some points.
I KNOW WHEN TO PUNT...I THINK
McDaniels is talking about being versatile with his offense, which means knowing that who’s on the field will dictate what kind of offense they run. When RB Knowshon Moreno is in the game, the Broncos might be spread, attempting to create a loose play attack. When LaMont Jordan is in the game, they might want to power teams with their run game and eat the clock. And based on the level of excellence in camp, other roles will be discovered. Nevertheless, the key for the opponent will be trying to figure out how they will attack your defense, not necessarily how they attacked the opponent the week before.
Last year, for example, even though the Patriots were not a power team, they played the Cardinals at home in Week 16 and started with two tight ends and two backs (with guard Ross Hochstein as the fullback). They knew the Cardinals did not adjust well to that formation, allowing the Pats to control the game and score four of the first five times they touched the ball. Controlling the game did not mean they ran the ball out of that formation, it just meant it gave the Patriots an advantage in both the run and pass elements of their offense. The key to being multiple on offense is not running new plays each week, but rather running the same plays from formations and personnel groups that specifically bother the defense.
McDaniels will be different each week. At times, he will be very aggressive with his calls; at other times, he will be very deliberate. He will be a student of how to give his team a chance to win games and will excel in this area.
I WISH WE HAD DONE...
There will be no doubt that this year the Broncos might take some steps to improve their defense, but they will still be too many players short of being consistent. I really believe they’ll regret not getting more beef for their defensive line in the draft; in fact, they should have dedicated more of the draft to the defensive line. Picking one defensive lineman for a team as bad in the defensive line as they are was a mistake. It will set the recovery time back. They’re so thin in the defensive line, it might get ugly in October if injuries occur to their front line players.
Drafting three defensive backs might look good now, especially since every starter in the secondary is over 30 years old, but with no pressure, they’ll be exposed no matter how young or old. Second-round pick Alphonso Smith (5-9, 193) worries me with his size at corner, especially when opponents get into the red area and try to find the smallest corner to throw the fade.
I AM GOING TO REMEMBER THIS ONE...
When October comes rolling around, the Broncos will be tested physically on both sides of the ball. Starting Oct. 4 with the Cowboys, followed by the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Steelers, Denver’s depth will really be tested. Injuries will creep up from playing these five physical games, and the Broncos will be thankful their bye comes after the first three, giving them time to heal their wounds.
THINGS WILL BE DIFFERENT NEXT YEAR
McDaniels made a bold move trading Cutler, but by next season he will either be a hero or on the hot seat, depending on how his team plays. He controls his future with his ability to coach, lead the team and evaluate. The key for the team in 2010 will be finding out whether McDaniels has the Belichick ability to evaluate players or if he’s like other coaches from the tree, unable to handle that key element. My sense is McDaniels will be a very good coach for years to come, and much better in 2010.
Veterans Report: Training Camp 2009 Officially Underway
Friday, the Broncos held their first practice of training camp, and the Josh McDaniels' Era officially gets going. Here are some tidbits from Friday at Dove Valley:
1) Knowshon Moreno and Robert Ayers are still not signed yet. Other first round picks after these two have been signed already, so let's hope this gets done pretty soon. This better not last too long.
2) Champ Bailey, Marcus Thomas, and Renaldo Hill are all placed on the PUP list. They can be removed from the list at anytime. Interesting to see Champ on that list. Allegedly, they are on the list because they failed the conditioning test. I don't know about that because it seems strange that Champ would fail a conditioning test before camp starts. We'll see.
3) Brandon Marshall was at practice, and he looked really good in practice too. Let's hope that Marshall falls in line, and is happy about being a Bronco.
1) Knowshon Moreno and Robert Ayers are still not signed yet. Other first round picks after these two have been signed already, so let's hope this gets done pretty soon. This better not last too long.
2) Champ Bailey, Marcus Thomas, and Renaldo Hill are all placed on the PUP list. They can be removed from the list at anytime. Interesting to see Champ on that list. Allegedly, they are on the list because they failed the conditioning test. I don't know about that because it seems strange that Champ would fail a conditioning test before camp starts. We'll see.
3) Brandon Marshall was at practice, and he looked really good in practice too. Let's hope that Marshall falls in line, and is happy about being a Bronco.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Broncos Kickoff Training Camp
Today at Dove Valley, rookies, injured veterans, and quarterbacks reported for their first day of training camp. The rest of the veterans will report on Thursday, and everyone will participate as a team together on Friday. Here is brief recap of today's events:
1)Brandon Marshall reported to camp. His press conference afterward was a little interesting. He stated that he is under contract, and he is obligated to report to the camp. He mentioned that he just wants to be happy, and right now he is excited to play football. He didn't delve too much into trade talks, but he stated that he is here now with the Broncos. My take on Marshall is that he is a phony, and this has and will be about money. I just don't want to deal with him at this point because training camp just started and the optimism is actually high. The Broncos shouldn't trade Marshall, and assure him that he will get a new deal as long as his legal issues are in check and he continues to produce on the field.
2) Josh McDaniels spoke about how he is happy that Marshall showed up for camp, and he is excited to get trainin camp going. He seems to be handling the Marshall situation pretty good, and I am really starting to like McDaniels. I hope all his enthusiasm and excitement can somehow translate into a winning season and a playoff berth this year.
3) Knowshown Moreno and Robert Ayers, the Broncos twin first round picks, have not signed yet, but McDaniels doesn't seem to worried because a lot of first round picks have not signed either. Once the top picks start to sign, then the Broncos can slot Moreno and Ayers into their particular contract spots.
1)Brandon Marshall reported to camp. His press conference afterward was a little interesting. He stated that he is under contract, and he is obligated to report to the camp. He mentioned that he just wants to be happy, and right now he is excited to play football. He didn't delve too much into trade talks, but he stated that he is here now with the Broncos. My take on Marshall is that he is a phony, and this has and will be about money. I just don't want to deal with him at this point because training camp just started and the optimism is actually high. The Broncos shouldn't trade Marshall, and assure him that he will get a new deal as long as his legal issues are in check and he continues to produce on the field.
2) Josh McDaniels spoke about how he is happy that Marshall showed up for camp, and he is excited to get trainin camp going. He seems to be handling the Marshall situation pretty good, and I am really starting to like McDaniels. I hope all his enthusiasm and excitement can somehow translate into a winning season and a playoff berth this year.
3) Knowshown Moreno and Robert Ayers, the Broncos twin first round picks, have not signed yet, but McDaniels doesn't seem to worried because a lot of first round picks have not signed either. Once the top picks start to sign, then the Broncos can slot Moreno and Ayers into their particular contract spots.
2009 Sleeper Candidates Continued
4) Cincinnati (4-11-1): The Bengals won their last three games of '08 to give them some momentum heading into the 2009 campaign. The key is Carson Palmer. They get their franchise QB back healthy this season, and that could be the difference for them this year. They are definitely an interesting team to watch, and no one is talking about them as possible wild card contenders. Keep an eye out for the Bengals.
3) Oakland (5-11): It is the same story every preseason for the Raiders. They have talent on both sides of the ball, but will Jamarcus Russell step up this season? Will Tom Cable be able to do a solid job coaching while dealing with Al Davis hovering over his head? Can this team finally turn the corner and have its' first winning season since 2002? I don't know the answers because with the Raiders, you never can tell.
2) Jacksonville (5-11): What a weird team. The Jags go 11-5 in 2007, beat Pittsburgh on the road in round one, and play New England- at that time 16-0- pretty tough in a loss at Foxboro in the second round. The Jags follow up with a dismal 5-11 season in 2008. It was shocking to see how quickly this team fell in one season. We will find out a lot about Jack Del Rio and David Garrard in 2009.
1) Green Bay (6-10): Classic sleeper pick. They lost a bunch of brutal games (Carolina, Houston, at Minnesota), have a bright QB prospect in Aaron Rodgers, revamped their defense, and have a favorable schedule (AFC North and NFC West). Don't forget this team was 13-3 two years ago. The Packers look ready to return to the playoffs in '09.
3) Oakland (5-11): It is the same story every preseason for the Raiders. They have talent on both sides of the ball, but will Jamarcus Russell step up this season? Will Tom Cable be able to do a solid job coaching while dealing with Al Davis hovering over his head? Can this team finally turn the corner and have its' first winning season since 2002? I don't know the answers because with the Raiders, you never can tell.
2) Jacksonville (5-11): What a weird team. The Jags go 11-5 in 2007, beat Pittsburgh on the road in round one, and play New England- at that time 16-0- pretty tough in a loss at Foxboro in the second round. The Jags follow up with a dismal 5-11 season in 2008. It was shocking to see how quickly this team fell in one season. We will find out a lot about Jack Del Rio and David Garrard in 2009.
1) Green Bay (6-10): Classic sleeper pick. They lost a bunch of brutal games (Carolina, Houston, at Minnesota), have a bright QB prospect in Aaron Rodgers, revamped their defense, and have a favorable schedule (AFC North and NFC West). Don't forget this team was 13-3 two years ago. The Packers look ready to return to the playoffs in '09.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
2009 Sleeper Candidates
In my last post I gave you the criteria for an NFL team to be considered a sleeper. Every year a team comes out of leftfield to surprise everyone and make the playoffs. The fun part is trying to pick this year's sleeper team. Also, there can be more than one sleeper team in a year. Last year, we had three: Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami. Here is my list of possible sleeper teams for 2009. Remember at least one of these teams will make the playoffs in 2009:
(I'll list in them reserve order of record from 2008)
9) Detroit Lions (0-16 in 2008): Obviously, the Lions should improve from their performance in 2008. It is hard to see the Lions win 9 or 10 games with a new Head Coach and a rookie QB. Don't count on the Lions as a 2009 Sleeper.
8) St. Louis Rams (2-14 in 2008): The Rams could be an intriguing sleeper pick because of these factors: Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger. I could see the Rams sneaking up on people because of a weak division, but I wouldn't trust them as a sleeper.
7) Kansas City Chiefs (2-14 in 2008): The Chiefs could become the consensus "Bandwagon Sleeper" by the time the season starts in September. They added Matt Cassell at QB and Todd Haley as their HC, so that should immediately jumpstart their offense. I don't know if they have enough talent to win 10 games, but they will be an interesting team to watch.
6) Cleveland (4-12 in 2008): The Browns look like they are in rebuilding mode as the Eric Mangini era kicks off. The key to their success will be at QB. Can you trust Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn? I don't think I can.
5) Seattle (4-12 in 2008): The Seahawks were dismantled by injuries last season. This team has the classic look of a team ready for a bounce back season. With Matt Hasselback healthy, I think you could look for some good results from this team in 2009.
NEXT POST: The Final Four Sleepers!
(I'll list in them reserve order of record from 2008)
9) Detroit Lions (0-16 in 2008): Obviously, the Lions should improve from their performance in 2008. It is hard to see the Lions win 9 or 10 games with a new Head Coach and a rookie QB. Don't count on the Lions as a 2009 Sleeper.
8) St. Louis Rams (2-14 in 2008): The Rams could be an intriguing sleeper pick because of these factors: Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger. I could see the Rams sneaking up on people because of a weak division, but I wouldn't trust them as a sleeper.
7) Kansas City Chiefs (2-14 in 2008): The Chiefs could become the consensus "Bandwagon Sleeper" by the time the season starts in September. They added Matt Cassell at QB and Todd Haley as their HC, so that should immediately jumpstart their offense. I don't know if they have enough talent to win 10 games, but they will be an interesting team to watch.
6) Cleveland (4-12 in 2008): The Browns look like they are in rebuilding mode as the Eric Mangini era kicks off. The key to their success will be at QB. Can you trust Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn? I don't think I can.
5) Seattle (4-12 in 2008): The Seahawks were dismantled by injuries last season. This team has the classic look of a team ready for a bounce back season. With Matt Hasselback healthy, I think you could look for some good results from this team in 2009.
NEXT POST: The Final Four Sleepers!
Sunday, July 5, 2009
2009 Sleeper Report
The Bronco Blog was started a year ago at this time. My first post talked about some of the sleepers for the upcoming NFL season. I figured this would be a good time to throw out the 2009 "Sleeper Teams" as we are about a month away from the start of training camps. There is a certain formula/criteria to follow when looking at possible sleepers. Here is the criteria:
1) The team must have finished with at least 10 losses the prior season. There can be some exceptions if a team finished at 7-9 or 8-8. For example, the Broncos could be in the sleeper category because they finished 8-8, but fired their legendary Head Coach, hired a first time, 34 year old HC, and traded their franchise, Pro Bowl QB. There's not a lot of hope right now in Denver for '09. Although they finished 8-8, the Texans fall into this category as well. Overall, a true sleeper usually comes from the group of teams that had 10 or more losses.
2) The team had a bad record the year before based on bad luck, injuries and close losses. Sometimes a team just gets decimated by injuries, and the season sprials out of control ('08 Seahawks). Sometimes a team just loses a bunch of heartwrenching games and their season can't be saved ('08 Packers). Sometimes a team's season get derailed by a lingering player controversy or off the field situations, and it hangs over the team like a dark cloud all year long ('07 Falcons). These teams can bounce back rather quickly and put together a successful next season.
3) The team gets a new QB, new Coach, or new Management. A team can become a sleeper if they all of sudden get great QB play, or a new coach that guides them to a few wins or if they make better management decisions in personell. The Falcons, Ravens, and Dolphins are all examples of this in 2008.
4) The team gets no respect from the media, analysts, and general football community. This might be one of the underrated aspects of the possible sleeper. The team that flys under the radar can turn into one of the season's biggest surprises. Nobody saw Miami going from 1-15 in'07 to 11-5 in '08. It happens everyyear, and one team always uses the no respect angle as their war cry throughout the season and it usually pays off for one sleeper team every year.
Next time we will take a look at all the 2009 Sleeper Candidates.
1) The team must have finished with at least 10 losses the prior season. There can be some exceptions if a team finished at 7-9 or 8-8. For example, the Broncos could be in the sleeper category because they finished 8-8, but fired their legendary Head Coach, hired a first time, 34 year old HC, and traded their franchise, Pro Bowl QB. There's not a lot of hope right now in Denver for '09. Although they finished 8-8, the Texans fall into this category as well. Overall, a true sleeper usually comes from the group of teams that had 10 or more losses.
2) The team had a bad record the year before based on bad luck, injuries and close losses. Sometimes a team just gets decimated by injuries, and the season sprials out of control ('08 Seahawks). Sometimes a team just loses a bunch of heartwrenching games and their season can't be saved ('08 Packers). Sometimes a team's season get derailed by a lingering player controversy or off the field situations, and it hangs over the team like a dark cloud all year long ('07 Falcons). These teams can bounce back rather quickly and put together a successful next season.
3) The team gets a new QB, new Coach, or new Management. A team can become a sleeper if they all of sudden get great QB play, or a new coach that guides them to a few wins or if they make better management decisions in personell. The Falcons, Ravens, and Dolphins are all examples of this in 2008.
4) The team gets no respect from the media, analysts, and general football community. This might be one of the underrated aspects of the possible sleeper. The team that flys under the radar can turn into one of the season's biggest surprises. Nobody saw Miami going from 1-15 in'07 to 11-5 in '08. It happens everyyear, and one team always uses the no respect angle as their war cry throughout the season and it usually pays off for one sleeper team every year.
Next time we will take a look at all the 2009 Sleeper Candidates.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)