NFL Preview 2009- Part 1:NFC Predictions

Finally, my favorite blog entry of the year is here. After an entire offseason including the Combine, Free Agency, the Draft, Minicamps, OTAs, and Training Camp, I can finally post my 2009 NFL Preview and Predictions. Let me first explain why I love making predictions on the NFL season. It has been something that I have done since 1994. How do I remember that it started in '94? That was the summer that I had my first job. I worked in the backroom of an old card store packing and stuffing the Sunday newspapers. The only perk of the job was that the owner of the store gave me free magazines every Sunday after I worked. That Summer every week, I would go home with Pro Football Weekly, The Sporting News, Baseball America, and every NFL preview magazine that you existed at that time. I also got access to few dirty magazines as well, but that is a story for another forum. Anyway, I read all of these NFL magazines, and I decided to make predictions for the 1994 NFL season myself. I wrote them down on looseleaf before the season started, and I would see how I did at the end of the season. My 1994 picks didn't go so well: I had Denver beating the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. That was the last time I would pick Denver to go to the Super Bowl. Although my predictions didn't really pan out, I had fun doing it, so every August I would sit down and read all the NFL preview magazines, and make predictions. I guess I would call it my little guilty pleasure. I have done it every year since that Summer. Last year, I started this blog, and I was excited to be able to put down these predictions in a proper forum. Now my predictions post will be my favorite post of the year. I love doing it. Predicting the NFL is so hard and that is why it is so much fun. It is almost impossible to get most of your predictions right, but it is a challenge I thoroughly enjoy. Before I get to my 2009 NFC predictions, let me explain the formula for predicting an upcoming NFL season. I went over this last year, but let me just rehash it: At least 6 of the 12 playoff teams will be different from the year before. Last year 5 out of 12 made it back, only New England missed out to prevent 6 out of 12, and the Pats finished 11-5. Also, at least 4 of the 8 division winners will be different. Last year, only 2 out of 8 division winners repeated, but I expect this year more division winners will hold serve. Also, expect some teams that finished with 10 or more losses to jump up and make the playoffs in 2009. This happens every year, and 2008 was a record year with Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta all getting into the playoffs after terrible seasons in 2007. Allright with all the clerical information out of the way here we go with the NFC predictions for 2009:

NFC EAST

1) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): I think the Eagles are primed and ready for a big season in 2009. I like what the Eagles added to their offense (Macling,McCoy, Peters), and I think McNabb has enough weapons (Westbrook, Celek, Jackson, and Curtis) to create a lot of offense. The passing of Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson is both tragic and troublesome. They will miss his schemes and presence. Also, losing Brian Dawkins will hurt, but I think the Eagles defense will do enough and get enough stops in big spots to get the job done. In a tough division, Philly is the best team and wins the East.

2) Dallas (10-6): The Cowboys are ready to get back into the playoffs. Dallas is a good team that fell apart down the stretch. They have a very good defense, and I think losing Terrell Owens won't be a major issue for the offense. Remember, TO had one of his worst seasons last year. Throw in the fact that Tony Romo will be without the distractions of Owens, and I expect a lot out of Romo this year. There wasn't a lot of noise out of Dallas this Summer and that is a good thing. The Cowboys get into the playoffs as a Wild Card.

3) New York Giants (8-8): Every expert thinks the Giants are the favorite in the NFC. On paper, that is true, but I just have a feeling about this. The Giants have been in the playoffs every year since 2005. It is hard to make the playoffs 5 years in a row. Not having a really viable replacement for Plaxico Burres will be an issue all year long for Eli and the Giant offense. I guess I going out on a limb, but I think the Giants take a step back this year. Maybe injuries play a role, or they just lose some close games, but I see the Giants missing out of the playoffs.

4) Washington Redskins (5-11): I am not a big fan of Jim Zorn as a NFL Head Coach. The Skins obviously wanted to upgrade their QB position and didn't, so there will be a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell this year. Their offensive line will struggle, and their defense can only do so much. The Redskins struggle in 2009, and it sets the stage for Mike Shanahan to become their new Head Coach in 2010.

NFC NORTH

1) Chicago Bears (12-4): The Bears added Jay Cutler and that trade will pay off for the Bears in 2009. Forget about the receivers, a big time QB will improve the offense and the receivers, and Cutler is that big time QB. He has good weapsons around him (Hester, Forte, and Olson), and a good offense will help that defense. The Bears will win the NFC North, and Cutler will be an MVP candidate.

2) Green Bay Packers (10-6): The Packers are back for a bounce back year in 2009. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal, and they improved their defense (Raji, Mathews, new DC). The Packers schedule is favorable, and I think they will battle it out with the Bears for the division title all the way into December. Green Bay gets back to the playoffs in 2009.

3) Minnesota Vikings (8-8): The whole Brett Favre saga was draining on every one in the organization. Even if Favre signed with the Vikings, I still don't think they would have made the playoffs. Now they are stuck with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Their defense is getting older and it is hard to keep that level of play on the defensive side going every year. The Vikings take a step back and miss the playoffs.

4) Detroit Lions (3-13): When you go 0-16 and clean house, the only place to go is up. The Lions are building a new program in Detroit, and new coach Jim Schwartz needs time to develop his program. Add in first overall pick, Matthew Stafford and any amount of victories will be considered a success. Detroit is a few years away, but in the NFL who knows. I think 3 wins would be a good stepping stone for the Lions in '09.

NFC SOUTH

1) Atlanta Falcons (11-5): I struggled with who would win this division in 2009, but I settled on the Falcons. Matt Ryan is the goods at QB, and having Michael Turner will help that offense. Don't forget that they added TE Tony Gonzalez. The trio of Ryan, Turner, and Gonzalez with Roddy White is a nice group of offensive skill players. John Abraham is a force on defense. The Falcons won't sneak up on anyone this year, but in a wide open division, I think they will get the job done and win the South.

2) New Orleans (9-7): I originally had the Saints penciled in as my division winner, but I changed that. I picked the Saints to get very far last year, and they burned me. I am not going to invest in them again. They will be good, especially on offense (Brees, Thomas, Bush, Colston, Moore, and Shockey), but I am not sold on their defense. I know they added a good DC in Greg Williams, but I'm still not sold. I see the Saints leading the division all year, then fading at the end. No playoffs for the Saints in '09, and Sean Payton on the hot seat.

3) Carolina Panthers (8-8): I think that crushing loss to Arizona last year will have an effect on this team. You know they will play hard, run the ball, and play solid defense, but I think the pressure will be on Jake Delhomme. I don't trust Delhomme, and the Panthers will take a step back in 2009 and miss the playoffs.

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): The Bucs collapse at the end of last season was brutal, and it lead to the firing of Jon Gruden and the beginning of the Raheem Morris Era. I don't know if I can buy into Morris as a bonafide Head Coach in the NFL. I think the Bucs are rebuilding. I think they will start out slow, and maybe show some progress as the season goes on, but the Bucs are in for a rough 2009.

NFC WEST

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-6): I love the Seahawks as a bounce back team to win the NFC West. Matt Hasselback is back and healthy, and I love their WR Corps (Houshmanzadah, Burleson, and Branch). Their defense should rebound from a bad year in 2008. Also, they have one of the rare home field advantages left in the NFL. Jim Mora will do a nice job with this team, and he will be considered a coach of the year candidate by November. Seattle rebounds and wins the weak NFC West.

2) San Francisco 49ers (8-8): Mike Singletary will be able to motivate this team, and they will play hard. Their problem will be the QB spot. If it is Shaun Hill or Alex Smith, I don't see them getting the production they need to make the playoffs. The Niners could suprise this year, but I think they are a year away.

3) Arizona Cardinals (7-9): The annual "Super Bowl Hangover" hits the Cards this year. All of a sudden the Cardinals are relevant, and I think they take a step back this season. I think Kurt Warner will have trouble staying healthy-just a hunch- and I think they will get a lot of teams' A-Game. The Cards struggle and miss out on the playoffs.

4) St. Louis Rams (4-12): The Steve Spagnuolo Era begins in St. Louis. The Ram defense was awful last year, and I think Spags will help them a little bit, but he needs more time to build it. Steven Jackson could have a big year, but I think Marc Bulger will struggle. I think the Rams are a year away from making a playoff push.

2009 NFC Playoff Predictions:
1) Chicago (12-4)
2) Philly (11-5)
3) Atlanta (11-5)
4) Seattle (10-6)
5)Dallas (10-6)
6)Green Bay (10-6)

Wild Card Round:
3-Atlanta over 6-Green Bay (Matt Ryan gets his first playoff victory)
5-Dallas over 4-Seattle (Dallas gets first playoff win since 1996)

Divisional Round:
1-Chicago over 5-Dallas (Cutler gets his first playoff win)
2-Philly over 3-Atlanta (Philly gets to 6th NFC Title game since 2001)

NFC Championship:
2-Philly over 1-Chicago (Reid and McNabb win the NFC Title for the late Jim Johnson)