Part Two of my NFL preview focuses on the AFC. One quick note before I get started, I said in my previous post that usually 4 of the 8 division winners won't repeat the next year. In 2008, only 2 out of 8 division winners repeated. This year I'm only picking 2 out of 8 to repeat because last year, New England and Indy did not win their respective divisions. The Pats finished tied with Miami but lost out due to tiebreakers. Indy finished 12-4 and lost out to 13-3 Tennessee. I think this year both NE and Indy get back on top of the divisions. Here we go with the AFC:
AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots (11-5): The Pats are loaded for '09. Getting Tom Brady back will help them, but they are also so loaded on offense. You've got Moss, Welker, Watson, a healthy Maroney, and they added Joey Galloway. They added some depth in the secondary (Springs, Bodden and Darius Butler),but their pass rush remains a concern. The bottom line is that they have Brady and Belichick and that's all you need. The Pats roll to the division title in '09.
2) Miami Dolphins (9-7): Last year's surprise will be a good in 2009, but they won't have enough to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are well coached, and have a good defense, but I think the Wildcat will only get them so far. Pennington is a solid QB, but their schedule is very tough and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They will play hard every week, but I think they miss out on the playoffs.
3) New York Jets (8-8): New coach Rex Ryan created some bulletin board material for the rest of the AFC East this offseason, but he might have trouble backing it up. I see the Jets getting off to a tough start (Their first four games are brutal), as rookie QB Mark Sanchez needs time to develop. I think their defense will need some time in the beginning to adjust to Ryan's attacking scheme. I think the Jets are one of those teams that will be like 5-8 and then win their last three games to finish 8-8 and probably spoil someone's season.
4) Buffalo Bills (5-11): I was thinking about picking Buffalo to make the playoffs, but I decided against it. I just can't trust their offensive line and Trent Edwards. The addition of Terrell Owens will help, but I see the Bills struggling in a tough division. I'm not a fan of Dick Jauron, and I think this is the end of the road for him.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): The Steelers will have some bumps in the road in defense of their title, but they have a very good coach, a great QB, and a fantastic defense. In the NFL those elements provide winning seasons. The Steelers will reload and win the division. It may be tougher than people expect, but they will get it done.
2) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): My "Super-Ultra Sleeper" for the 2009 season: The Bengals. I know that sounds pretty ridiculous, and I know I picked them last year to win the division and they finished 4-11-1, but I have a gut feeling the Bengals will surprise people this year. You get a healthy Carson Palmer back, and people forget about how good Palmer is. They added some decent pieces to the defense (Tank Johnson, Roy Williams, Rey Maualuga, Michael Johnson) and their defense was actually underrated last year. They added Coles to Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, and they drafted Andre Smith. This team won 11 games in 2005, they were 8-5 with three games to go in 2006, their defense and off the field incidents killed them in 2007, and Carson Palmer was hurt basically all of 2008. I just have a feeling about the Bengals this year. I don't know how to explain, but I think they are a sleeper and make the playoffs as a wild card. If they don't, then I will definitely never pick them ever again.
3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): I think the Ravens take a step back in 2009. They won 11 games last year, and they didn't really beat anyone. Their only real impressive win was at Dallas in Week 16. Then they got a perfect matchup in round 1 against the Dolphins, and they beat the Titans in round 2 because Tennessee shot themselves in the foot all game long. I like Joe Flacco, but I don't love him. I still don't think he has a lot of weapons around him, and that includes getting Derrick Mason back. They are getting older on defense, and they must adjust to the loss of Rex Ryan and Bart Scott.
4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): When Eric Mangini was with the Jets, I never watched a game thinking that Mangini is such a shrewd coach. I think he is actually overrated. I don't like the Browns QB situation. This is a team in transistion. They may be better then what I predict, but I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5): The Colts get the division back in 2009. I know that Tony Dungy is gone, but the Colts still have Peyton Manning. Manning will lead the Colts very deep this year. Plus, the Colts are hungry. They have lost their last two playoff openers the last two years, and everyone is talking about the Steelers and the Pats in the AFC. The Colts just reload, and their window to win is never closed with Manning.
2) Tennessee Titans (10-6): Originally, I thought that the Titans wouldn't make the playoffs this year, but after looking at it deeper, I think the Titans get in as a wild card. Jeff Fisher is a very good coach, and they were the best team in the AFC last year. They killed themselves in the playoffs against Baltimore, and I think they are going to be very good this year. I like Kerry Collins, and he has help on that offense. Chris Johnson is a gamebreaker, and they added some help to their WRs with the addition of Nate Washington. Their defense is solid with good players at every level-especially Vanden Bosch, Bulluck, and Finnegan. The Titans will be a team no one wants to see in January.
3) Houston Texans (8-8): The Texans will be picked by a lot of people to make the leap and finally make the playoffs in 2009. I don't see it. I am not jumping on the Houston bandwagon this year. I like their offense, but Matt Schaub has to stay healthy. Their defense and their toughness up front is what disturbs me. Plus, their division is very tough. Four games with the Colts and Titans is what is going to kill them. The Texans miss out on the playoffs again.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Which Jacksonville team will show up? The team that went 11-5 in 2007 or the team that imploded on their way to 5-11 in 2008. Which version of David Garrard will show up? The sensational 2007 version or the medicore 2008 version. This is just a weird team to figure out. They might be able to make some noise in 2009, but I just don't have enough confidence to pick them.
AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers (12-4): The class of a weak division. The Chargers should have missed out on the playoffs last year, but they got hot at the end and won the West. San Diego should be better in 2009. Philip Rivers is a franchise QB, and LT will be very good this season. Throw in Gates, Sproles, Jackson, and Chambers, and the SD offense should put up a lot of points. Their defense obviously gets better with the return of Shawne Merriman. The Chargers have been in the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 years. They have won 3 playoff games in the last two years, but they haven't been to the Super Bowl. They need to take the next step. This could be the year they do.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): The Chiefs are done with the putrid Herm Edwards Era, and now start the Scott Pioli-Todd Haley Era. The Chiefs are a popular pick to be this year's Dolphins, especially since they added Matt Cassell. I think the Chiefs will be very improved and very well- coached this year, but they are a year away from making the playoffs. Their problem will be their weapons on offense and some defensive issues. I don't think they have enough playmakers to hurt defenses, and their front seven looks like it isn't good enough to slow down any good offensive team.
3) Oakland Raiders (6-10): The Raiders show some improvement this year by winning 6 games, but I'm not buying into the Tom Cable and JaMarcus Russell era in Oakland. I think Jeff Garcia will be starting by Week 5, but I don't think he will be able to help the Raiders into the playoffs. The Raiders are a team in disarray and they always will be as long as Al Davis is running the team.
4) Denver Broncos (5-11): Warning: This is going to be long! Now we get to my team, The 2009 Denver Broncos. What an offseason: Shanny gets fired, Bowlen hires Josh McDaniels, McD fueds with Jay Cutler, they trade Cutler to Chicago, name Kyle Orton the starter, Brandon Marshall wants a trade, they don't address their awful front seven in the offseason, and now everyone is picking Denver to win no more than 6 games max. Why did I pick Denver to go 5-11 and finish last? Well, there are a couple of reasons: 1- Reverse Psychology 2- Too much drama in the offseason 3- A rookie head coach under the most pressure ever in NFL history 4-Subtracting Jay Cutler and adding Kyle Orton 5-Their defensive front seven doesn't have a lot of talent 6-I picked them to make the playoffs last year and they were 8-5 and collapsed to finish 8-8 and I'm not doing that again. There are a lot of negatives for the Broncos going into 2009. Their are also so many questions surrounding this team. How will the team respond to McDaniels when faced with adversity? How will Kyle Orton play learining a very difficult new offense? How will the Brandon Marshall situation play out? How much will they improve at all on defense? How will adjust to Mike Nolan's new 3-4 scheme? How will Champ Bailey bounce back? How will an old secondary fare? I will give you this: The Broncos might not be as bad as everyone predicts in 2009. Kyle Orton will have some weapons on offense (Royal, Marshall, Stokely, Gaffney, Graham, Scheffler, Moreno, Hillis, and Buckhalter) and he has a very good OL to work with. McDaniels is a tremendous play caller and offensive mind, so the offense could be pretty good. Maybe their defense comes together. They really can't get worse than they were last year. Maybe guys like Ron Fields, Kenny Peterson, DJ Williams, Robert Ayers, Andra Davis, and Elvis Dumervil step up and give that front seven some reliability. The secondary with Dawkins, Champ, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Alphonso Smith plays well and creates some turnovers. Maybe they get a break in their schedule and catch some teams at the right time, and they win a few close games they shouldn't. Who knows? That's the thing about this Bronco team. The title of their 2009 Media Guide should be: "The 2009 Denver Broncos- Who the Hell Knows?" I'm not trying to drink the kool-aid too much, but stranger things have happened. The Broncos are a true sleeper this year, but I'm not gonna jinx them. I did that last year and look what happened. I like this spot for Denver- laying around in the weeds with no one expecting anything. Maybe the worst offseason in Denver Broncos history will be replaced with one of the most satisfying and surprising season in Denver Broncos history......We'll see.
AFC Playoff Predictions
1) San Diego (12-4)
2) Indy (11-5)
3) New England (11-5)
4) Pittsburgh (10-6)
5)Tennessee (10-6)
6) Cincy (9-7)
Wild Card Round
3-New England over 6-Cincy (Brady and Belichick move on to face Indy)
5-Tenn over 4-Pittsburgh (Tenn upsets the defending Super Bowl Champs)
Divisional Round
1-San Diego over 5-Tenn (SD moves on to host AFC Title game)
2-Indy over 3-New England (Manning outduels Brady)
AFC Championship
1-San Diego over 2-Indy (SD makes first SB since 1994)
SUPER BOWL XLIV
San Diego Chargers over Philadelphia Eagles
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment