One Final Look Back at 2009

The 2010 NFL season unofficially kicks off in April. The schedule gets released in mid-April, and the NFL Draft commences at the end of the month. Those events get everything moving towards the 2010 season. Before we get heavily involved into the upcoming season, it is always fun to look back at the 2009 season, and see just how accurate my picks and predictions were. I'll go division by division and give a little take on how I fared. Let's start with the AFC EAST....

My picks in August 2009:

AFC EAST

1) New England Patriots (11-5): The Pats are loaded for '09. Getting Tom Brady back will help them, but they are also so loaded on offense. You've got Moss, Welker, Watson, a healthy Maroney, and they added Joey Galloway. They added some depth in the secondary (Springs, Bodden and Darius Butler),but their pass rush remains a concern. The bottom line is that they have Brady and Belichick and that's all you need. The Pats roll to the division title in '09.

2) Miami Dolphins (9-7): Last year's surprise will be a good in 2009, but they won't have enough to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are well coached, and have a good defense, but I think the Wildcat will only get them so far. Pennington is a solid QB, but their schedule is very tough and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They will play hard every week, but I think they miss out on the playoffs.

3) New York Jets (8-8): New coach Rex Ryan created some bulletin board material for the rest of the AFC East this offseason, but he might have trouble backing it up. I see the Jets getting off to a tough start (Their first four games are brutal), as rookie QB Mark Sanchez needs time to develop. I think their defense will need some time in the beginning to adjust to Ryan's attacking scheme. I think the Jets are one of those teams that will be like 5-8 and then win their last three games to finish 8-8 and probably spoil someone's season.

4) Buffalo Bills (5-11): I was thinking about picking Buffalo to make the playoffs, but I decided against it. I just can't trust their offensive line and Trent Edwards. The addition of Terrell Owens will help, but I see the Bills struggling in a tough division. I'm not a fan of Dick Jauron, and I think this is the end of the road for him.

-The Pats won the division by finished 10-6, the Jets finished second and earned a wild card at 9-7, the Dolphins finished third with a record of 7-9, and the Bills finished last with a record of 6-10.

-I nailed the Pats winning the division, and almost had the exact record.

-I figured correctly that the Dolphins wouldn't make a return trip to the playoffs.

-I had the Jets at 8-8, so I was close, but I didn't expect the Jets to make the playoffs this season.

-I nailed the Bills pretty good. They finished last at 6-10, and I had them at 5-11.

-Overall, I feel that I really did a nice job predicting this division. It was a surprise that the Jets made the playoffs, but if Indy didn't mail in the game in Week 16, then the Jets would have finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race.

AFC NORTH

1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): The Steelers will have some bumps in the road in defense of their title, but they have a very good coach, a great QB, and a fantastic defense. In the NFL those elements provide winning seasons. The Steelers will reload and win the division. It may be tougher than people expect, but they will get it done.

2) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): My "Super-Ultra Sleeper" for the 2009 season: The Bengals. I know that sounds pretty ridiculous, and I know I picked them last year to win the division and they finished 4-11-1, but I have a gut feeling the Bengals will surprise people this year. You get a healthy Carson Palmer back, and people forget about how good Palmer is. They added some decent pieces to the defense (Tank Johnson, Roy Williams, Rey Maualuga, Michael Johnson) and their defense was actually underrated last year. They added Coles to Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, and they drafted Andre Smith. This team won 11 games in 2005, they were 8-5 with three games to go in 2006, their defense and off the field incidents killed them in 2007, and Carson Palmer was hurt basically all of 2008. I just have a feeling about the Bengals this year. I don't know how to explain, but I think they are a sleeper and make the playoffs as a wild card. If they don't, then I will definitely never pick them ever again.

3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): I think the Ravens take a step back in 2009. They won 11 games last year, and they didn't really beat anyone. Their only real impressive win was at Dallas in Week 16. Then they got a perfect matchup in round 1 against the Dolphins, and they beat the Titans in round 2 because Tennessee shot themselves in the foot all game long. I like Joe Flacco, but I don't love him. I still don't think he has a lot of weapons around him, and that includes getting Derrick Mason back. They are getting older on defense, and they must adjust to the loss of Rex Ryan and Bart Scott.

4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): When Eric Mangini was with the Jets, I never watched a game thinking that Mangini is such a shrewd coach. I think he is actually overrated. I don't like the Browns QB situation. This is a team in transistion. They may be better then what I predict, but I don't think the Browns are going to be very good.

-The Bengals won the division with a record of 10-6, the Ravens finished second and earned a wild card berth with a 9-7 record, the Steelers finished third with a 9-7 record, and the Browns finished last at 5-11.

-I would like to pat myself on the back for nailing my 2010 sleeper: The Cincy Bengals. I just had a gut feeling about them, and I was right. I didn't think they were going to win the division, but they made the playoffs, so my sleeper pick was dead on.

-I had the Ravens at 8-8, so I wasn't far off. I didn't think the Ravens were going to make the playoffs, and for awhile it didn't look like they were going to make it. Collapses by Denver and Jacksonville got the Ravens in.

-I had the Steelers winning the division, but they fell apart towards the end of the season and finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. That was a stunner that I didn't see coming.

-I nailed the Browns finishing last and they actually won a few more games then I thought they would.

-My Bengals sleeper pick will go down as one of my best predictions up to date.

Why the Broncos Need to Draft Tim Tebow!!!!

I was born in 1979, and my first recollections of the Denver Broncos was around 1985. The Broncos faced the Raiders in Mile High on a snowy afternoon. Throw in the orange jerseys, the cool helmet, and some guy named Elway, and I was hooked. Growing up a Bronco fan was great because the Broncos were so successful, and they featured one of the greatest QBs in the NFL. I am now 30 years old, and these past four seasons were the first time in my lifetime that Denver failed to make the playoffs four seasons in a row. Right now the Denver Broncos are a stale franchise. They are not a bad franchise by any means, but the Broncos are in the need of a jumpstart. Just like the Broncos needed a jumpstart in 1983, the Broncos of 2010 need a little kick in the ass. The one player that can do that for them in none other than Tim Tebow.

Tebow would be just the polarizing figure the Broncos have needed since John Elway retired after the 1998 season. The only way to get back to the elite in the NFL is to have that franchise QB. Kyle Orton is a nice player, but he only plays well enough to get your team to 8-8, 9-7, or if your lucky 10-6. The Broncos need a star at QB. Yes, they had a possible franchise guy, but we all know what happened to Mr. Cutler. Now is the perfect time to start fresh with quite possibly the greatest college football player of all-time: Tim Tebow.

Tebow and the Broncos are a perfect fit. Josh McDaniels says that he is looking for a certain type of player. That player must be a hard working, team oriented type of guy. He also must possess intelligence and determination to put the team in front of any personal accolades. Tebow is exactly that type of player. He is the pure definition of what McDaniels is looking for.

Also, Tebow is a perfect fit for Denver based on the type of offense the Broncos now employ. Most of the time Denver is set up in the shotgun formation. Tebow spent his whole career in the shotgun spread offense at Florida. Plus, McDaniels is a fantastic QB coach. He could work wonders with a player of Tebow's physical skills. Tebow would listen to his young teacher, and the two could really feed off of each other. As Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn commands the offense this season, Tebow could sit back and watch and develop. You could also use Tebow in various packages. A wildcat or a shotgun set on short yardage and goal line situations would be perfect for Tebow. It would be beneficial to him, and give the Broncos another option on offense and another weapon for teams to defend. This marriage makes too much sense. It is not like Denver needs to sell tickets, but they need a buzz again in that stadium. Tim Tebow brings that buzz. He puts Denver back on the map. What is more intriguing for a Bronco fan? Watching Kyle Orton every week or Tim Tebow developing? Your answer should be Tebow, and the Broncos should find a way to draft him. It is a waste if he goes to Jacksonville, Carolina, or Buffalo. The Broncos should scoop him up. If QB is the most important position on the field, then why not maximize the competition. Who cares if we go into training camp with Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, and Tim Tebow (Thanks for showing up, Tom Brandstater). The Broncos need to make this move. Tebow is the answer. McDaniels had the balls to ship out Jay Cutler, why not hike up the skirt one more time and give the Bronco fans something to really rejoice about. Get Tim Tebow and McDaniels can begin to build his shrine in Denver next to John Elway. We are going to lose a guy who wears #15 on our team this year, why not add another guy who wears #15.

The Tim Tebow Debate

There is a chapter in Brian Billick's new book that discusses the ability to assess and project the ability of a quarterback in the NFL. Billick is quoting as saying that when it comes to evaluating QBs in the NFL "nobody knows anything." This is a great quote, and coming from an experienced NFL head coach, a very telling statement. Take a look around the NFL and the most successful QBs come from all different avenues. You have high, top picks like Peyton Manning. You have a 6th round pick like Tom Brady. You have an undrafted player like Tony Romo. There is no true answer to who is going to be a bonafide franchise QB. Once you get that franchise player, then you can really be considered a contender year in and year out. When you look at this year's crop of QBs, there are questions attached to each one. Sam Bradford has shoulder and durability concerns, Jimmy Clausen has leadership concerns, Colt McCoy has durability and physical limitations, and Tim Tebow has fundamental issues. Out of the four, Bradford is rated the highest, Clausen in second, and many people have either McCoy third and Tebow fourth or vice-versa. If I was a talent evaluator, my number one QB headed into the draft would be Tim Tebow.

I know that sounds pretty ballsy and ridiculous, but here's why Tebow is my choice for this year's draft: First, Tebow has the mental makeup to be one of the best QBs in the league. Mentally is where a lot of quarterbacks fail in the NFL. Phil Simms once told a story about how all the best QBs in the NFL are really hard on themselves, teammates and coaches. Basically, they are jerks when they get into the meeting rooms and on the practice fields. They demand excellence from themselves and their teammates. Tebow certainly fills that criteria and is someone who will do whatever it takes to be successful at his position. Secondly, leadership is a huge factor in not only playing QB, but leading the organization. Tebow is considered one of the best leaders ever to play college football. He will walk into a NFL locker room and demand respect from the moment he shows up at that facility. Thirdly, Tebow has the physical ability to play the position at a high level. You don't just throw for that many yards and touchdowns in the SEC by not having the physical skills. Yes, he needs to work on his fundamentals as a QB, but if he goes to the right team, he can work on those skills and in time develop into one of the best QBs in the league.

Mark my words now: Tim Tebow will be a very successful NFL QB. If he goes to the right situation, many teams will rue the day that they doubted and passed on Tebow.

Offseason Musings

The NFL decided that they were not going to release the Opening week primetime games and the Thanksgiving slate this year at the Owner's meetings. It is rumored that the league is still figuring out and working on the schedule. Presumably, the holdup has been linked to the NFL giving the Jets the Monday Night home opener.

-The NFL changed it's overtime playoff format. Now, the team that receives the ball can win the game only if it scores a touchdown on their first possession. If they kick a field goal, then the other team gets a chance to respond. I didn't mind the old sudden death rule, but I am not opposed to this new change. Besides, in the playoffs there are only about an average of 1 game per playoff season that goes to overtime.

-Finally, the big rumors and news around the NFL is the possible trade of Donovan McNabb. McNabb has been linked to St. Louis and Oakland.

-All is quiet right now on the Brandon Marshall front. I expect Marshall to be traded by the time the NFL Draft rolls around. Seattle could still be the destination, but you have to watch out for the Jets.

Schedule Tweaks Version 3.0

The NFL looks to announce the opening weekend primetime games and the Thanksgiving games tomorrow at the Owner's Meetings in Orlando. Here are my tweaks on what games will be announced. I made some adjustments based on the information that was being leaked in the past few days. Here we go.....

Opening Night
Thursday September 9th:
Minnesota at New Orleans (NBC)


Sunday Night Football Opener:
San Diego at Indianapolis (NBC)

Monday Night Football Doubleheader:
Miami at New York Jets (ESPN)

Game #2
San Francisco at Seattle (ESPN)


Thanksgiving:
Early Game:
New England at Detroit (CBS)
Late Game:
Chicago at Dallas (FOX)
Night Game:
Green Bay at New York Jets (NFLN)

Opening Schedule Tweaks

Last week the NFL announced that the Giants will christen their new stadium by playing the first regular season game on Sunday September 12th, and the Jets will play the following night on Monday Night football, so both NY teams get to play in the new stadium on opening weekend. It is not a bad idea and a good compromise for both teams, especially the Jets who now feel slighted about everything. Also, the NFL announced that the Jets will get to host the Thanksgiving Night game on NFL Network. With these moves being announced, here is my revised opening weekend marquee matchups and Thanksgiving games:

Opening Night
Thursday September 9th:
Pittsburgh at New Orleans (NBC)


Sunday Night Football Opener:
Dallas at Minnesota (NBC)

Monday Night Football Doubleheader:
Miami at New York Jets (ESPN)

Game #2
San Francisco at Seattle (ESPN)


Thanksgiving:
Early Game:
New England at Detroit (CBS)
Late Game:
Chicago at Dallas (FOX)
Night Game:
Baltimore at New York Jets (NFLN)

Brady Quinn to Denver

On Sunday Night, the Broncos acquired QB Brady Quinn from the Browns in exchange for FB Peyton Hillis, a 6th round pick in 2011, and a conditional pick in 2012 that will be no higher then a 4th or a 5th round selection. Bascially, the Broncos gave up nothing to get a 3rd year QB who was a first round pick only three years ago. At first, I was very upset about the move until I saw what Denver gave up, which is basically nothing. Yes, I was among the Broncos fans that loved Peyton Hillis, but the reality is that Hillis simply doesn't fit into Josh McDaniels' offensive scheme. Hillis is a good runner and a good pass receiver, but he is not a good blocker and pass protector, and the Broncos don't employ too many traditional two-back, I formation sets. Spencer Larsen is a more effective blocker, and so Hillis was expendable. The Broncos didn't even have to touch this year's draft, so this deal was a good move from that standpoint. I always liked Brady Quinn, but I never thought he was a franchise QB; however, he never really got a fair shot in Cleveland. Quinn didn't play at all in 2007 behind Derek Anderson, he started 3 games in 2008, and he played in 8 games in 2009. He was on a really bad team, so maybe the change of scenery will help stimulate his career. Throw in the fact that he is familar with McDaniels' offense and concepts because Quinn played for Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. From these standpoints: Young first round QB, offensive familiarity, and not giving up really anything this move was a win-win for Denver.

The reason why I don't like the move is because this doesn't really give the Broncos a long-term answer at QB. In my mind the Broncos need to draft one of the big four QBs in this draft: Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, or the Tim Tebow. Personally, I've been on the Tebow bandwagon all season long, and I was really hoping that Denver would take Tebow, and I wouldn't care if it was in the second round. The Broncos need to give their fans a reason for hope, and they need to build around a potential franchise QB. A lot of NFL experts and critics might not agree with me, but Tebow would be a great fit in Denver. Plus, he would immediately give the Broncos some juice and a much needed jolt for a franchise that has gotten stale over the past four seasons. The Quinn move in my mind seems to negate the idea of Denver drafting any QB in this draft. Maybe if Tebow fell to them in the fourth round, then they might bite, but Tebow isn't falling into the fourth round, and it looks like Denver is not going to select a QB. I would love to see it happen, and if it does then I hope it is Tebow, but it looks like the Broncos will go to training camp with Kyle Orton as the starter, Brady Quinn as the backup, and Tom Brandstater as the 3rd QB. If that's the case, then Quinn has the higher upside and the most potential.