Wednesday, August 10, 2011

2011 NFC Predictions!!!!

Here we go with the NFC Predictions........

NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
What I Like: The Eagles were the undisputed champions of this condensed offseason. They added Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, Ronnie Brown, Jason Babin, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb heist. Also, they stole Steve Smith away from the Giants. They were already very good before they made all those moves, so the Eagles have stacked the deck for this season. Mike Vick will be the key factor for them, and he is going to be an MVP candidate. Throw in the receiving corps and Lesean McCoy, and you have to like where they are as a team. The have locked and loaded for a big 2011 season.

What I Don't Like: Football is not like the other sports. Yes, you have to have talent to win, but in football you can't expect to just put all these names together and expect to easily go 14-2 or 15-1. Football is more complicated then that. Also, the Eagles have put the bullseye on their back, and the expectations might be too much for them at times.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the NFC East.

2) Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
What I Like: Tony Romo is coming back from injury, so that will help them right off the bat. Some people like to kill Romo, but put the tape on from last year's win over Houston, and you see how important he is and just how good he is. Also, you have to like what you see out of Jason Garrett as a head coach, and he seems to have them on the right path, unlike last year's debacle under Wade Phillips. They can really make up ground this year from weeks 7-13 with games against the Rams, Bills, at Wash, Miami, and at Arizona.

What I Don't Like: They are so far behind the Eagles, that it is not even close. There is no shot they can win the division, unless the Eagles completely implode. Their secondary is still shaky, and their offensive line could still have some trouble. Let's face it: The Cowboys haven't gotten a lot of press this offseason, but they are still a national draw, and they are not sneaking up on anyone.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3) New York Giants (8-8)
What I Like: They still have a good head coach in Tom Coughlin, and their core of Eli, Jacobs, Bradshaw, Manningham, Nicks, Tuck, Webster, Thomas, and Rolle is still pretty much in place. The Giants also are always competitive and didn't have too many holes to fill in the offseason. There are not that many things that a 10-6 needs to do to take the next step, and the Giants are in that boat.

What I Don't Like: I don't like anything that happened this offseason for them. First, the Osi Umenyiora situation is a major distraction and problem. They cut Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert, they lost Barry Cofield and Kevin Boss in free agency, and they lost Prince Amukamara for two months. To add insult to injury Steve Smith goes and signs with the Eagles. Their schedule down the stretch is absolutely brutal. Their last seven games look like this: Philly, at New Orleans, Green Bay, at Dallas, Washington, at Jets, and Dallas. Tom Coughlin could lose his job if the G-Men miss the playoffs, and it looks like the Giants might be headed that way.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC East.

4) Washington Redskins (7-9)
What I Like: Mike Shanahan is still a very good NFL coach despite what happened last year. They were able to add some receivers in free agency this offseason, and their defense has another year to develop in the 3-4 scheme. Rex Grossman and John Beck are not big time QBs, but perhaps Shanny can get enough out of them to be a competitive team and in the hunt down the stretch.

What I Don't Like: I was shocked that Shanahan didn't go after a better quarterback in the offseason. He is going with Grossman and/or Beck, and you can't really expect miracles from those two this season. Their defense is still suspect, and they are clearly behind Philly, the Giants, and the Cowboys in their division.

Prediction: 7-9 and last in the NFC East

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
What I Like: Aaron Rodgers has made the leap and now he has a Super Bowl ring to boot. Rodgers is now an elite QB in the NFL, and as long as he stays healthy, he will make the Packers a threat to repeat. Plus, Green Bay has done a great job of drafting and developing their own talent. They are still loaded on offense, and I wouldn't expect a Super Bowl hangover from this group.

What I Don't Like: Being the defending Super Bowl champs, the Packers will have the target on their back all season long. It is not easy getting up every single week for every other team's best shot, so it is definitely not going to be easy for them.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC North

2) Detroit Lions (9-7)
What I Like: The Lions have slowly built themselves a talented football team. They have the QB in Matt Stafford, and they have talent all over that offense. We know the impact of Ndamukong Suh on that defense, but you could just tell last year that the Lions were starting to make the jump. They finished 2010 with four straight wins, and I learned from last year that if I like a team, don't wait a year for them- just go with it. The Lions are the surprise team of 2011, and they will make their first playoff appearance since 1999.

What I Don't Like: Stafford hasn't stayed healthy his first two years, and I'm a little shaky about Jim Schwartz and his gameday management. They do have to play the NFC South which is a tricky division for them, and their own division is very competitive. They also might buy into their own hype too. If they come out believing their own hype, then they are screwed.

Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth

3) Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
What I Like: Donovan McNabb was a nice pickup at QB, and I think McNabb will play well this year. They still have Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin on offense. The players will actually want to play for head coach Leslie Frazier, and no one is really giving them a chance. They will surprise some people, and they will be in the hunt for a playoff spot down the stretch.

What I Don't Like: If McNabb is toasted, then they are handing over the reins to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Their defense is no longer what it once was, and they need more playmakers on offense. Frazier could do no wrong once he took over for Brad Childress, but now the spotlight is really on him. We'll find out if he wilts under the pressure of being a NFL head coach week in and week out with a rabid fanbase.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the NFC North

4) Chicago Bears (5-11)
What I Like: The Bears did get Gabe Carimi in the draft to help with the offensive line. Marion Barber could help them in short yardage and goal line situations. Roy Williams has to been at least a small upgrade at wideout. Jay Cutler put this team on his back at times last year, and I would expect him to continue to develop as a franchise quarterback.

What I Don't Like: This team really overachieved last year, and it is hard to see them taking equaling last year's 11-5 record. Their defense is another year older, and I'm never going to be sold on head coach Lovie Smith. Cutler can be erratic we know that, and losing Olin Kreutz just seems like a really bad blow. Their first three games are brutal: Atlanta, at NO, and Green Bay, and they could get off to an 0-3 start. I just find it hard for the Bears to take the next step this season.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the NFC North

NFC SOUTH
1) New Orleans Saints (10-6)
What I Like: Anytime Drew Brees is your QB, you have a good chance to be a contender. The Saints are well-coached under Sean Payton, and adding Mark Ingram will help their toughness and their running game. The Saints also have the motivation of how last season ended with a shocking loss at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card game. You just get the feeling that they are ready to explode back into the mix of the NFC.

What I Don't Like: Their division is very tough and competitive, so the Saints will be challenged every wee, and there are no easy games. How much did they gain on the Falcons? Their division is a lot tougher then the past two seasons, and their out of division schedule includes the Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the NFC South

2) Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
What I Like: Matt Ryan is definitely a franchise type QB, and he will continue to progress. Head coach Mike Smith has done a great job in changing the culture in Atlanta, and the Falcons have quietly built one of the league's top franchises. Adding a dynamic playmaker with Julio Jones to Roddy White should make them more explosive. Getting Ray Edwards in free agency will be a nice compliment to John Abraham.

What I Don't Like: The way that they got destroyed by the Packers just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It reminds of how when Carolina got beat by Arizona in the 2008 playoffs, and it seemed to send the Panthers into a tailspin that continued into the next season. I think the Falcons are talented, but sometimes teams just don't get the breaks that they did the year before. Something just tells me that the Falcons are going to fall short of their expectations in 2011.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the NFC South

3) Carolina Panthers (7-9)
What I Like: Things can't get worse than it did with last year's 2-14 season. The Cam Newton factor is definitely intriguing, and they were able to resign their top talent (DeAngelo Williams, Charles Johnson and Jon Beason), add Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen, and get Steve Smith to buy in. The Panthers have to look of a really feisty team and will surprise a lot of people.

What I Don't Like: Obviously, anytime you break in a new head coach and rookie quarterback, you are going to have some struggles. We don't know what to expect from Ron Rivera and Cam Newton, and at times it could get dicey. They are in a tough division and are miles behind the Saints and Falcons.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the NFC South

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
What I Like: As much as I continue to be a non-believer, Josh Freeman played very well last year, and he looks like he could become a next level guy in the NFL. If Freeman builds off last season, then the Bucs could become legitimate contenders.

What I Don't Like: Freeman was great last year, but I need to see it again. Also, Raheem Morris did a great job last year, but I'm still not sold on him either. I need to see it again from the bot of them. The Bucs are also getting a lot of publicity this offseason, and I just see them failing to meet those expectations.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the NFC South

NFC WEST
1) Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
What I Like: The move for Kevin Kolb was essential, and I expect him to play really well and help the Cardinals offense. Any kind of play by Kolb this season will be better then what the Cards had last year with their quarterback position. Plus, Ken Whisenhunt is a really good NFL head coach, and he will get the Cardinals back on track.

What I Don't Like: I'm nervous that Kolb could be injury prone or just simply have a rough time in his first real year as a starter. If he struggles, then the Cards are in deep trouble.

Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the NFC West

2) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
What I Like: Watch how well coached the Niners are this year under Jim Harbaugh as opposed to when the Niners were coached by Mike Singletary. The 49ers look like they will fit the Harbaugh style of a team: Physical, strong, and grinding. The Niners are headed in the right direction.

What I Don't Like: Alex Smith is still the team's quarterback. No offense to Smith, but we have seen that he is simply not the guy in San Francisco. If the Niners had added Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb, then I would have thought about them stealing the division. They didn't, and I think they are one year away from the playoffs.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the NFC West

3) St. Louis Rams (7-9)
What I Like: Sam Bradford looked like the real deal last year, and he should continue to progress as a franchise-type QB. Josh McDaniels and Bradford could be a lethal combination. Steve Spagnuolo got the Rams from 1-15 to 7-9, and he looks like he can be a very successful head coach. The Rams look like they are headed in the right direction.

What I Don't Like: I did like adding McDaniels as the offensive coordinator, but this year it might be a little tricky. Bradford might struggle more considering he didn't have anytime to learn the offense in the offseason. Plus, it will be interesting to see how Spags feels about McDaniels play-calling and offensive decision making. I don't think it will be a perfect marriage to start. The Rams will be everyone's pick to win the West, but they might not be able to meet the expectations. The Rams still look like they are a year away.

Prediction: 7-9 and third in the NFC West

4) Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
What I Like: They did add Sidney Rice in free agency, and Pete Carroll seems to have really gotten his players to buy in to his program. They were able to keep Brandon Mebane on their defensive line, and added Zach Miller and Robert Gallery from the Raiders.

What I Don't Like: How could the Seahawks let Matt Hasselbeck go? If they were going to let him go, how do they think that Tarvaris Jackson is the answer? Jackson is not a big-time, starting QB in the NFL. I'm sorry but the Seahawks completely screwed up their season by going with Jackson. They missed the boat on their replacement for Hasselbeck, and it will cost them dearly.

Prediction: 4-12 and last in the NFC West.

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

1) Philly (12-4) NFC East
2) Green Bay (11-5) NFC North
3) New Orleans (10-6) NFC South
4) Arizona (9-7) NFC West

5) Dallas (10-6) Wild Card
6) Detroit (9-7) Wild Card

Wild Card Weekend
3-New Orleans over 6-Detroit (The Saints knock off the young Lions in New Orleans.)
5-Dallas over Arizona (The Cowboys get their second playoff win in three years.)

Divisional Weekend
1-Philly over 5-Dallas (A classic rivalry meets the playoffs as Vick gets the Eagles to the NFC Title Game.)
3-New Orleans over 2-Green Bay (The Saints defeat the Packers in Lambeau in a rematch of the last two Super Bowl winners.)

NFC Championship
3-New Orleans over 1-Philly (Brees outduels Vick as the Saints head to their second Super Bowl in three years.)


Next Time........AFC Predictions!!!!


2011 NFL Preview!!!

It is so nice to be writing my NFL Predictions column this year. Things looked a little bleak as May turned to June and June turned to July. Everyone thought the NFL would eventually settle the lockout, but it was getting a little too tedious for most fans. Finally, the NFL and NFLPA settled their differences and football was back by July 25th. The following week was crazy and wild as free agency, trades, college signings, and rumors all took center stage. After a wild 10 days, it is just starting to feel like a regular NFL preseason. To be honest, it will be challenging to try to predict the 2011 season. Only when the season actually starts, will we see the real effects on the lockout on teams and players. This year has the possibility of being totally unpredictable, or it might look very similar to last year. It is simply hard to tell at this point, and it is answer we won't have until the season ends. Whatever the case, it is still fun to try and make the same bold predictions that I have made when it comes to a season preview column. As we head into this unprecedented season, I still am going to stick to the formula that I have used in the past. The formula you ask? Here it is:

1)At least six teams will not return to the playoffs from 2010.
2)Six teams will make the playoffs after not making it last year.
3)At least four division winners out of eight will be different.
4) At least one team that lost 10 games the year before will make the playoffs this season.

Those four principles are how to set up your predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Also, there is a new theory that I must throw into play: "The Quarterback Conundrum." If your team has an top-level QB, then you have a chance to make the playoffs every single season. If your team has an average QB, then you are going to need breaks and luck to make the playoffs. If your team has a below average QB, then your simply not going to make a substantial run at the playoffs. The quarterback is so important in today's NFL; therefore, it must be considered a major factor-especially this particular season. Here are the 12 starting QBs from last year's playoff teams: Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, Mike Vick, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck. All of those guys are in Top 15 of the NFL QBs (The exception being Sanchez and Cassel, but those two are arguable). Here are the 2009 NFL Playoff starting QBs: Brady, Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Flacco, Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Rodgers, Brees, and Kurt Warner. Again, there are not real slouches in that group.

With all that said, it feels good to get going with this year's NFL predictions column. It will be fun, and I will continue to try and think outside the box. I will give a little bit about what I like about that certain team, and I will write about what I don't like about that team. Finally, I will give a 2011 prediction with a record. First up is the NFC preview, and then I will follow it with the AFC preview. Enjoy!

The 2011 Sleeper Report

Every year a team that loses at least 10 games the year before comes back and makes the playoffs the next year. This year the NFL has some really interesting possibilities for a sleeper team or two to make the jump into the playoffs. At least one of these teams will make the playoffs in 2011. Here are the sleeper teams in 2011, and here is how I would rank them:

13) Cincinnati Bengals (2010 Record 4-12)
12) Denver Broncos (2010 Record 4-12)
11) Carolina Panthers (2010 Record 2-14)
10) San Francisco 49ers (2010 Record 6-10)
9) Buffalo Bills (2010 Record 4-12)
8) Cleveland Browns (2010 Record 5-11)
7) Washington Redskins (2010 Record 6-10)
6) Minnesota Vikings (2010 Record 6-10)
5) Tennessee Titans (2010 Record 6-10)
4) Detroit Lions (2010 Record 6-10)
3) Dallas Cowboys (2010 Record 6-10)
2) Arizona Cardinals (2010 Record 5-11)
1) Houston Texans (2010 Record 6-10)


Friday, August 5, 2011

Training Camp Report

We are a week into the 2011 Broncos Training Camp, and things seem to be a little more upbeat this year. That certainly will happen when you have a new head coach, and someone like John Fox seems to bring a little more of a positive feeling to the team and the organization. Before we get into the Kyle Orton- TimTebow debate, here are some of the most recent moves the Broncos have made this past week:
1) Denver signed Ty Warren formerly of New England. Warren was let go by the Pats after missing all of last season with a hip injury.
2) The Broncos resigned Marcus Thomas to also bolster their defensive line.
3) Denver acquired Broderick Bunkley from Philadelphia for a late round draft choice in 2013.
4) The Broncos released S Renaldo Hill.

All of these moves on the defensive line look like they can go either way this year. We have been down this road in the past, and the Broncos have gotten burned by trying to sign veteran players, who were once starters, but have health concerns. Warren and Bunkley were both starters and contributors for Pats and the Eagles, but injuries were the main reason they were shown the door. I think that both can help, but I've seen this story before, so I'm going to have to be pessimistic on these two signings. I am happy that the Broncos resigned Thomas because it seems his effort was always there the past few years. He should have a better fit in the Broncos new 4-3 scheme than he did in the 3-4 the past two seasons.

Now, onto the Tebow-Orton debate. First, let me say this: I want Tebow to start. I've said that from day one, and I believe that now is the time to give him a chance to start. If he does well, then we have a QB for the future. If he fails, then we know we have to address that position in the draft next year. With all that said, obviously Kyle Orton is the better quarterback right now. He also gives Denver the best chance to win starting the year, but that is not the simple answer to this QB question. Think about it: If Denver goes 6-10 or even 8-8 this year with Orton, was anything really accomplished? Is that enough for the Broncos to resign Orton and give him a long-term extension? I don't think so; therefore, it is time to start Tebow and see what happens. If Denver goes 8-8 with Tebow, then maybe their quarterback questions are answered.

Next, something is missing in this story. It sounds like the Broncos Front Office decided in the offseason to give Tebow the opportunity to start this year. They put Orton on the trading block, the Dolphins bite, the deal falls through, and Orton remains with the Broncos. After one week of practice, Orton is basically told that he is not going to be traded, and the unofficially named the starter. What changed Denver's mind in a week? Why didn't they put Orton as the number two guy after the trade blew up? Something is missing here.

Let's be honest here, there is no QB controversy in Denver right now. Kyle Orton is the starter, he is taking all the first team reps, and unless he gets hurt in preseason, he will start week 1. If it were a true competition, then Tebow would be getting reps with the first team as well, and that has not been the case at all. Orton will start no matter what type of competition John Fox and his staff are promoting. Perhaps the Broncos have a longterm vision with Tim Tebow in mind, but to sell winning to the team right now, the Broncos staff will say that Orton gives them the best chance to win right now, and Tebow is simply not ready. As much as I hate to admit it, Fox and John Elway haven't really deviated from what they said all offseason. They both said that they probably wouldn't trade Orton, and they didn't. Also, Elway said that he likes Tebow, but he isn't sure if he is going to be ready this year. It looks like Tebow won't get his shot this year, so basically Elway and Fox have laid out this roadmap and have followed it.
Do I think it is a big mistake? Absolutely, but I can't call them liars because this is how they said it probably could play out.

So where does it leave me as a Broncos fan? I want Tebow to be the starting QB for the Broncos. I think this is the right time for him to start, and I think he can be very effective. The Broncos fan base also needs this in a bad way. No offense to Kyle Orton, but we have seen him do what he does, and he is 11-19 as a Broncos starter. It is time for a change, and Tebow is the kind of change that can ignite a franchise and a fan base. The Broncos haven't mattered for the past five years, and it is time for them to matter again. Kyle Orton won't make them matter again, but Tim Tebow will.

Finally, here is my strategy for dealing with this in the next month or two. I am going to root against Kyle Orton in the preseason games. I hope he fumbles, throw picks, looks bad, gets booed, and gets injured (Nothing major but just something that would keep him on the sidelines for at least a month of preseason.) Obviously, I'm going to rooting for Tebow to play lights out and play very well in the preseason. If Orton starts the regular season opener vs Oakland, which he will unless he gets hurt, then I will root for Orton because I'm a Broncos fan, and I want my team to do well and win. If Orton struggles, then I would hope the staff would turn to Tebow at some point to rescue the season. If Orton plays incredible, then perhaps Denver would be on their way to a playoff berth. One way or the other, I just want the best for my Broncos-even if I try to put a spell Orton in the process.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Broncos Training Camp and Free Agency Update

Usually the Broncos dive into free agency with reckless abandon. Mike Shanahan and Josh McDaniels both demonstrated that during their terms in Denver. This year has been slow in that area. I mean really, really slow. Perhaps this new philosophy is a good thing. Word out of Denver is that the team is cash strapped due to all the bad deals and signings from the past few seasons. Also, the Broncos are being very picky and selective, and they want to avoid overspending on talent, and looking for good values for certain players. I can't say I totally disagree with this mindset, but I simply not used to it. Frankly, I thought Denver was going to make at least one huge splash in free agency-Charles Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, or Brandon Mebane were my predictions- but it looks like Denver is going to be patient and let things play out. Another reason for some free agency hold up is the Kyle Orton trade never went through. Apparently, Miami and Orton couldn't come together on a deal to restructure his contract once he got traded. So as it stands now, Orton is still with Denver, and he is currently Denver's starting quarterback and outplaying Tim Tebow (Insert nail in head.) It is not the most ideal situation, but again patience is going to be my key this season with the Broncos. My hope is that Orton will still be dealt at some point this preseason, and Tebow will get a chance to run this team as the starter. Remember, it is a long preseason, and their will be some more twists and turns to this story. Here are some other quick thoughts on the Broncos training camp and roster moves.

-Why doesn't Denver just bury Kyle Orton as the number two QB on the depth chart? I'm sure they don't want to that because it will soften his trade value, and he is better than Tebow right now, but screw it make him want to leave Denver so bad that he would come to terms on a new deal with the Dolphins. I think you would get more out of Tebow if he knew it was his job and his team now. Reports have surfaced that Orton looks really good in camp, and Tebow has struggled. Of course this is the case. Orton is an experienced starter in the NFL, and Tebow may never look smooth in practice, but the bigger picture is that we know what Orton is, and he is not the future of this franchise. We still don't know that about Tebow, and we need to find out. Put Orton on the bench and give Timmy his shot.
-One more thing from experience. Don't read too much into camp reports from beat writers and reporters. These guys really don't know much about football, so take what they say with a grain of salt. QBs can look great in one-on-one drills and in skelly. Even in team drills, they can look good or bad, but what really is important is the live action against other teams. Don't get to optimistic on a player or too pessimistic on a guy based on the reports you get from training camp.
-The Broncos have made a few minor moves. They signed Willis McGahee as another RB to compliment Knowshon Moreno. The Broncos signed David Anderson, wideout formerly of Houston, as a potential fourth or fifth receiver. Also, they resigned defensive tackle Marcus Thomas, who should fit well into John Fox's 4-3 scheme. Also, Denver added a pair of tight ends: Dante Rosario and Daniel Fells. Fells played with the Rams last year, and the Broncos could look to him as a H-Back/TE/FB in their offense. Rosario played with Carolina last year, and he is famous for catching a touchdown pass from Jake Delhomme on the last play of the game to beat the Chargers in Week 1 of the 2008 season. The only reason why I remember that was because FOX announcer Dick Stockon called him "Rosario Dawson" after the catch.
-Ty Warren is coming in for a visit. He is coming off a hip injury that made him miss the 2010 season. I like Warren, but I get nervous with defensive lineman and major injuries.
-I just feel really comfortable with John Fox at the helm as our new head coach. One thing you have heard a lot in Denver is the positivity that Fox brings to the team. There seemed to always be a dark cloud hanging over Josh McDaniels and the Broncos the last two years. It seems like the players will enjoy playing for Fox, and he will get the most out of this team. It might not be a great roster yet, but I get the feeling Fox will be able to have these guys buy in and get the most out of them.
-Hopefully next time I will have some more Bronco signings and some other good news from camp!

Monday, July 25, 2011

Christmas in July

After 136 days, the NFL lockout is over. What a excruciating and mind-numbing experience that whole ordeal was. At the end of the day, the NFL was able to get a 10 year labor deal that looks like a win-win for each side. They were also able to avoid missing any preseason or regular season games, except for the Hall of Fame Game. Thank God the NFL is back and now we head into what will be a wild week in the NFL. Rookie draft picks, undrafted rookies, and free agents all need to be signed. Trades can take place, and teams start reporting for training camp in a matter of days. It is going to be fun, and I look forward to chronicling all the major moves the Broncos make as we head into the 2011 season. With that said and the lockout put to bed, here is my annual "Broncos Things to Look For" Training Camp Preview:

What needs to the Broncos have now that free agency will start?
Denver addressed their linebacker and secondary in the draft, but they still need help on the defensive line. The Broncos need to add at least two more defensive tackles, and they could start by resigning Marcus Thomas and/or Justin Bannan. I don't expect Denver to go after a big name DT, but look for them to get a few mid-level rotational guys. After DL, the Broncos must address the cornerback position. After seeing the disturbing details in the Perrish Cox case, I am concerned about their depth at corner. A guy like Richard Marshall from Carolina looks like a nice fit. On offense the Broncos should add a running back to compliment Knowshon Moreno. A lot of people have Deangelo Williams going to Denver, but I don't see them adding him for a huge price. I wouldn't mind seeing Denver go after a bigger back or a bruiser like Marion Barber, especially at a cheaper price than Williams.

What happens with Kyle Orton?
If there was no lockout, then Orton would have been gone before the NFL Draft in April. I've said it before, and I will say it again: It is time to start the Tim Tebow Era. That means that Denver can't hold onto Orton as a backup at his salary. I think Denver will hold onto Orton until they get a good deal. A good deal would be a 3rd round pick and possibly a player as well. I think Orton gets dealt, but not until the middle or end of training camp.

Who else could be cut or traded?
It was reported that Correll Buckhalter might be one of the first cuts the Broncos make. Also, Renaldo Hill could get the ax as well. It looks like Brian Dawkins will stay, but at a reduced price. Perrish Cox could be let go after the details in his rape case were released last week.

Any other moves to our defense?
The Broncos should add a DT and DE in free agency. Also, a cornerback should definitely be on the priority list, but remember Elvis Dumervil is coming back from injury. Just by adding Doom back, the Broncos defense should be better than last year. Plus, if Denver gets anything from 1st round pick Von Miller, then the Broncos defense could be a lot better in 2011.

Any other moves on offense?
Again RB will be a priority, but I hope Denver doesn't overspend on that position. I think the Broncos will take a look at some TEs that get released and cut by other teams. I think WR and the OL are pretty much set for now.

Are we behind other teams because we have a new head coach and there was a lockout for 136 days of the offseason?
I don't think the Broncos are totally screwed by not having a normal offseason and having a new HC. I'm sure it would have helped to have John Fox around his new team, but he is a solid NFL head coach, and I expect Fox to adjust and adapt very well with this situation. Remember, the Broncos are coming off a 4-12 season, and there are still plenty of talent deficiencies on the roster, but Fox is the real deal, and I think he will get the Broncos ready to go in time for the season opener at home vs. Oakland.

Does Tim Tebow win the QB job?
My heart says yes, and my mind is starting to say yes. I really hope Tebow is given the chance to win this job, and I hope he takes advantage of it. I can see how Kyle Orton could still be on the team, and the coaching staff naming him the starter for Week 1, but the right move is to give Tebow the job. After learning the lockout is over, Tebow tweeted "Game On" on his Twitter account. You obviously know he is ready to go, and I think the Broncos pull the trigger with him and not Orton.



Friday, July 22, 2011

Lockout Blues Once Again

I have tried to stay away and not comment on the lockout this summer. I was waiting patiently for the lockout to end to comment on what I thought about this disgraceful labor dispute in the NFL. Last week, I almost typed a review column on the end of the lockout, and I was going to draft it and post it when the lockout ended. It seemed that was going to be the case this week and most likely on Thursday; however, as Roddy Piper once said, "Just when you think you have the answers, I change the questions." That quote sums up this lockout perfectly. Everytime you think it is close to being done, there is a snag or a delay. Everytime you think progress is being made, there is a contradictory statement that the progress isn't moving along as quickly as one thought. Everytime you hear one issue being settled, then you hear another one crops up that is more important. Everytime you hear that they are working towards an agreement, you hear that there is more hard work that needs to be done. Forgive me for being a little angry right now, but I am just representing the masses on this one. I love the NFL and following the NFL-specifically my beloved Denver Broncos-is a passion, hobby, and a way of life for me, but this lockout has definitely affected my affections for the sport I care about so dearly. It has affected all NFL fans deeply as well, and it will get really bad if regular season games are missed. Before I lose it completely, let's review for a second. The last time I posted on the lockout, it looked like this thing would be settled by early to mid July. I was fine with that, and I'm sure a lot of NFL fans were too. Progress was being made, the two parties were gaining trust, core issues were being addressed and settled, lawyers were grinding away, and everything seemed to be on track for a settlement. July 4th came and went without a deal, but there was still reason to believe a deal was right around the corner. July 10th went by and no deal yet, but things are moving the right direction. July 15th was supposed to be an internal deadline for a deal, but that date came and went and still no agreement. The two were to meet with Judge Boylan on July 19th and then the Owners could vote at their meeting on July 21st with the players to either vote the day before or on the 21st. Well, the players didn't vote on the 20th, but the Owners went ahead and voted on the 21st. Did the players follow and vote that night as well? Of course they didn't! Why would they? That leads us to this question: What the hell is going on here. Well, to help answer it I figured I would do a little "Q & A" on what to make of this situation.

Was it a power play by the owners to go ahead and vote on the new CBA on Thursday?
Yes, it was a power play, but I don't think it necessarily is the wrong play by the Owners. In 2006, Gene Upshaw basically did the same thing to the Owners. He gave them a take it or leave it deal as he boarded a plane to go to Hawaii and discuss decertification with the union. The Owners felt that they negotiated everything that was important with the players and basically said, "Here is the deal, we negotiated all the major aspects with you guys, now take it, ratify it, and let's get going with the season." The players might not like that tactic, but time is running short, and I don't think it was a bad strategic move by the Owners.

Do you think Roger Goodell pulled a fast one on DeMaurice Smith?
This is the question that I want answered: What was said between Goodell and Smith before the vote took place and after it went down? It is documented that the two men spoke with each other, but what was said. Did Goodell screw De Smith over? I can't see Goodell going ahead with the vote if Smith was adamant about not doing it. Their trust would be broken, and that kind of move would never result in any deal between the two of them. Something is amiss here, but one thing I think is true is that Goodell and Smith were somehow communicating and on the same page at least. If Smith truly was objecting to a deal, then it is highly doubtful that Goodell would go through with the vote.

Why do you think the players are waiting to ratify this proposal?
In my opinion, the players are doing a couple of things. First, they want to sort out all of the details and make the decision in thoughtful and precise manner. Second, they want to make the owners sweat a little. Third, they want to win a little public relations back by making it look like they want to make sure this deal is the right deal they want to sign. The players are playing a little game with the owners here. Lastly, there are some finishing details and points that they want to get to Owners to look. When that is all done, then I think they will vote on the deal and ratify it.

If this deal gets done, which side would be the winner?
From the details of the proposal, I think both sides got a lot out of this deal and can claim victories. NFL Owners got the revenue split back into their favor. It looks like the owners will get 52% of the revenue, so they got what they wanted there. Also, they were able to put a limit of rookie wages and spending, which is another big win for them. The NFLPA got some really good points too. They rejected 18 games and won that, they received higher minimum salaries, they got reduced training camp and offseason practices, and they got the teams to spend more on the salary floor. It is a win-win for both parties, that will only increase the greater good of the game. The only thing left is for the players to ratify this damn thing.

Who are some of the heroes and villains through this whole debacle?
The villains of this were a lot of the lawyer and legal types. Jeffrey Kessler, outside counsel for the NFLPA, was rumored to be holding up a deal and trying to get the players to continue the fight in court. His name was referenced with pure venom the last few months. Bob Batterman, outside counsel for the NFL, was also referenced as a deal breaker in the last few months from the players' side. Other than that, the heroes of this deal, if it gets done, will be Goodell and Smith. It is said they constantly talked over the real tumultuous times in this negotiation. Remember, this was the first labor deal that both of these men spearheaded. I was very critical of them early on, but both men seemed to realize that they need each other, and both seemed to take control of the ship once it hit rocky waters.

So when does this lockout get put to bed?
Reports on Saturday said that major progress on the remaining issues was all but done, and the NFLPA Executive Committee will recommend the new CBA on Monday. Reports on Sunday made it sound like there was still some unresolved issues; however, most experts believe this deal gets ratified this week at some point by the players-either Monday or Tuesday. We have seen this lockout take many turns, so I won't rejoice until this thing is officially over.