Thursday Night Football Pick- Week 14

PITTSBURGH (-13) over Cleveland: The Steelers at home on a short versus Colt McCoy sounds like a win. Don't worry about laying the points in another Thursday Night clunker.

Broncos Win a Shootout in Minnesota 35-32!

All the experts on television, in print, on the internet, and on the radio said that the way to beat Tim Tebow and the Broncos was to get a lead, stop the run game, and force Tebow to beat you through the air and not on the ground. If you get to 20 points, then you will win the game. Well, add another thing about Tebow and the Broncos that proved to be false. The Broncos did it again on Sunday in their 35-32 thriller over the Minnesota Vikings. This game proved some theories wrong as the Broncos trailed by eight points on three separate occasions. All three times the Broncos and Tebow answered. Tebow beat the Vikings through the air. He has his best passing game as a pro, and he finished 10-15 for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. In a game where the Broncos defense sorely missed Von Miller, who missed the game with a thumb injury, the Broncos offense picked up the slack, and put up over 30 points for the second time this season. Down 15-7 at the half, Tebow hit DeMaryius Thomas on a 21 yard touchdown pass to open the second half and cut it it 15-14. After Christian Ponder hit Percy Harvin on a 52 yard catch and run, the Vikings took a 22-14 lead. Back came the Broncos. Aided by a big return by Quan Cosby, Tebow scrambled and as he was going out of bounds he found a wide open Thomas, who then rumbled in for a 41 yard catch. 22-21 Vikings. At this point, you would think the Denver's defense would step up the way it had the previous five weeks, but Ponder and Vikings answered again, and another Harvin catch and run gave the Vikes a 29-21 lead with 9:41 to play. Enter Tebow once again with the game on the line. A beautiful Tebow to Thomas pass play gave the Broncos prime field position. The next play, Willis McGahee, who rushed for 111 yards, rumbled in for 24 yard touchdown. The Broncos were down 29-27 with 8:52 to play had to go for two. Who else was going to get the ball in that situation? Tebow rumbled in and the game was tied at 29. The Vikings again moved the ball down the field and got a field goal from Ryan Longwell to take a 32-29 lead. Here goes Tebow again. A first down completion to Matt Willis started the drive, and Tebow hit DeMaryius Thomas on another beautiful long pass to give the Broncos a chance to tie it. Tebow's throw to Thomas on 3rd down was there, but it just bounced of the receiver's finger tips. Matt Prater nailed the field goal, and with under two minutes left, the Broncos had tied it again at 32. Christian Ponder played really great all day long, but he made a crucial mistake on the Vikings first play. He was baited by cornerback Andre Goodman, and Goodman picked off Ponder and returned it to the Vikings 15. After a first down, the Broncos set it up for Prater, who nailed the game-winning 23 yarder as time expired. The Broncos won another last minute game, and this time it was on the strength of Tebow's arm, not his legs. Give credit to Willis McGahee, and the Broncos defense for getting a few key stops and a bgi turnover at the end. The Broncos wild and fun ride continues, and they now stand at 7-5 and winners of five straight games. They currently are tied for first place in the AFC West. It has been a long time since I have said those words, and it has been some of the most exciting, heart pounding moments as a Broncos fan that I have seen in a while. I just hope it keeps going.

Here are some of my thoughts and observations from the game.......
1) Right now this is the most fun I have had since the 2005 season when the Broncos went 13-3 and advanced to the AFC Championship Game. I got a text from a friend who is a Jet fan, and he asked how it was to watch meaningful football again. It really hasn't been that long since Denver was in the playoff hunt. Remember, they were 8-4 in 2009, and they proceeded to lose four straight. It has felt like it has been about 10 years since they had a winning record after 12 games. Like I said, I just want to enjoy this and take it one game at a time.

2) This game proved how good Von Miller is on this team. The Broncos couldn't generate a consistent pass rush like they did the past few weeks, and they got carved up by Christian Ponder. We need Miller back big time if there is any hope for us to make a run down the stretch.

3) Willis McGahee continues to be a beast. How about that transactions as one of the best offseason moves this Summer? McGahee ran for 111 yards and a touchdown, and early 4th quarter touchdown run was a thing of beauty.

4) The Vikings completely dominated time of possession. They held the ball for over 37 minutes, and they ran over 80 plays-including over 40 in the first half. That was a big factor in the play of Denver's defense. The Broncos defense was on the field for so much of the game. Give the Broncos credit though. Their defense got a pick six early by Mario Haggan, and Andre Goodman's interception late in the fourth quarter set up the game winning field goal.

5) Speaking of Goodman's interception, that moment was one of the best of the season. I haven't jumped that high in a long time, and when Goodman picked it off, I jumped so high I almost hit my head on my ceiling. Awesome moment.

6) The last five weeks have been so tense and thrilling, that I literally haven't sat down. Every week it is the same: I pace back and forth, go take a piss about 25 times a quarter, and think about how this is the week when we finally lose. Have I mentioned how wild this ride has been so far?

7) Tim Tebow made huge throws this game, and he beat the Vikings with his arm. He completed 10-15 passes for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. These were throws that Tebow was missing the first few games this season. Yes, I do know that the Vikings secondary is awful, so that will have to come into consideration, but you have to like the progress Tebow made this week.

8) The Broncos have now won five straight games, six of seven overall, and now have a 7-5 record. That is the longest streak since the first six games of the 2009 season. Also, they are have five straight road games and stand at 5-2 on the road this year with only one road game left. The Broncos return home to face the Bears who are also 7-5 after they lost two in a row without Jay Cutler.

NFL WEEK 13 Picks!

Here we go with Week 13 in the 2011 NFL season. You would hope that there would big games matching playoff caliber teams downt the stretch. There just aren't that many marquee matchups the rest of the way. For instance, this week only features the following games that pit two teams with winning records: Cincy at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at Houston, Detroit at New Orleans, Green Bay at New York Giants. That is is for Week 13, and if you look at it the Houston-Atlanta game loses some luster because the Texans are starting their third-string QB Tyler Yates. I'll keep track of the amount of marquee games each week as we hit the home stretch. Onto to the picks for this week............

Last Week's Record: 6-10-0

Overall Record: 66-85-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+2) over BUFFALO: The Bills played great in their loss to the Jets last week. Buffalo has lost four straight and now stands at 5-6. The Titans are lurking around at 6-5, and the Texans are down to Tyler Yates at QB. The Titans could lay in the weeds and make the playoffs somehow and someway this year. I think they get the job done in a close one at Buffalo this week.

CHICAGO (-7) over Kansas City: Caleb Hanie proved that he is no Jay Cutler last week in the loss at Oakland. We'll see if the Bears can bounce back this week at home to KC. I would normally love the Chiefs in this spot, but it looks like Tyler Palko gets the start again for them, so that sways me to Chicago's defense in this one. Look for Palko to get buried by that Bears defense, and look for a Kyle Orton sigthing in the second half. The Bears win this one in the 17-3 fashion.

MIAMI (-3) over Oakland: The Dolphins have played hard every week and instead of 3-7, they could easily be 5-6 or even 6-5. The Raiders are looking impressive and lead the AFC West at 7-4, but this seems like a game they could lose. Miami has a solid defense, and the Raiders have to travel East and play an early game. Dolphins win it late 24-20.

Atlanta (-2) over HOUSTON: The Texans are going with Tyler Yates after losing both Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart for the year to injuries. The Texans are not totally screwed for the playoffs, and they stand at 8-3. If they can go 2-3 down the stretch, then they will probably win their division at 10-6. This looks like a tall order for the Texans this week. Atlanta catches a break by getting the Texans this week and not a month ago.

Baltimore (-6) over CLEVELAND: All the Ravens will hear about this week is how they play down to the competition. They lost at Seattle and Jacksonville already this year, but this week they will be focused and ready when they head to Cleveland to take on the 4-7 Browns. The Ravens will take care of business on the road this week.

New York Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Redskins finally got their win last week to get to 4-7, and in come the Jets off a close win at home over the Bills. The Jets, at 6-5, need to play well and get some confidence again. This is the perfect matchup for them because Rex Grossman will start for the Skins. Look for a close game early, and then the Jets put it away in the second half. The Jets have to win this week and next week at home vs. KC to get them going again.

Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY: I have to admit that I was totally and completely wrong about Cam Newton. I thought he was going to struggle a lot this year, and that he wouldn't be a quality NFL QB, and he would be a borderline bust. Well, Newton has proved me wrong from day one. Here is the other thing about Cam: He is really fun to watch. Why else would you even pay attention to the Panthers? Every Sunday, I find myself flipping over to the Panthers game and watching at least a few drives with Cam at the helm. Once again, I'll take Cam on the road against the free-falling Bucs.

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH: The Bengals played valiantly in their defeat a few weeks ago at home to the Steelers, and I just have a feeling they are going to give the Steelers some fits again this week. The Steelers look like they are in that mode where they will just do what they have to do to win games down the stretch, and basically set themselves up for the playoffs, and no one is going to want to see them in January.

SAN FRANCISCO (-12) over St. Louis: The Niners will rebound after their loss at Baltimore on Thanksgiving and take out their frustration on the Rams this week. Much has been written and said about the Niners resurgence this year, but the bottom line is that coaching in the NFL really matters and Jim Harbaugh is proving that.

ARIZONA (+4) over Dallas: The Cowboys are riding high at 7-4, and this game looks like an easy victory for them, but with the Giants looming next week, you get the feeling that the Cowboys could be setting themselves up for a letdown this week in Arizona. It looks like Arizona might get Kevin Kolb back this week which might not be a good thing, but I like how the Cards have fought these last few weeks, and look for tight game in the Desert.

Green Bay (-6) over NEW YORK GIANTS: I have thought about picking the Giants all week, but I'm going to go away from them this week. They are just too banged up, and even if they lose this week, they will be 6-6 with four games to make a run at the playoffs. Remember, the Giants have two games left with Dallas to make up ground, and they have Washington at home and a "road" game against the Jets on Christmas Eve. The G-Men could get to 10-6 and it won't surprise me at all. Too much Aaron Rodgers and the Pack this week.

NEW ENGLAND (-20) over Indy: There is no talk about the "Greatest Rivalry in the NFL" this week as the 0-11 Colts head to Foxborough. 20 points is a lot to lay in the NFL, but the Patriots will stick it to the Colts this week in a bad way. By the way, the Patriots remind me of the 2006 Colts. Think about it: In '06 the Colts really struggled on defense, and their run defense was one of the worst in recent memory; however, once they got to the playoffs, no one could run on them, and they went on to win the Super Bowl. Same thing this year with Pats. Everyone has been killing their defense, and they struggle at pass defense, but they still have Tom Brady. Once the playoffs start, Bill Belichick will go to work on the defense and the AFC will still have to run through New England.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Detroit: The Lions will put up points on the Saints this week, but this game just looks like another offensive clinic by the Saints at home. I don't like giving up eight points to the Lions, but I'll feel pretty good about it once the Saints get off to a fast start like they did on Monday Night against the Giants. The Lions might still make the playoffs, but this one feels like a big night for Drew Brees.

San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: What another crappy game on Monday Night Football. I can't see the Chargers losing a seventh straight game. Also, don't put the nail in the coffin just yet on the Chargers. I know they are 4-7, but does anyone remember 2008? The Chargers aren't dead until they are officially knocked out of the playoffs.

MINNESOTA (-2) over Denver: Before I break down this game, can I get something off my chest about Tim Tebow. I know that he struggles as a passer, and I know he is not the most accurate QB in the NFL, but does every analyst and announcer have to try to top the other in their criticism of Tebow. Instead of just saying things like "Tebow's pass is off the mark" or "Tebow throw is too low for Eddie Royal," announcers/analysts have to go over the top to say how "awful" and "brutal" some of his throws are. It is just annoying, and no one said how great of a throw it was when he stood in the pocket on 3rd and 11 and drilled a 36 yard completion to Eric Decker late in the game at San Diego last week. Yes, he is inaccurate and he misses some easy throws, but give him credit for the two or three great throws he seems to make every game. Anyway, this game seems like a tough one for the Broncos for a few reasons. First, it is an early game in Minnesota. Second, the Vikings are not as bad as their 2-9 record would indicate. Third, Von Miller is a game-time decision with a busted thumb, and he is probably the most valuable player on Denver's defense. Lastly, after hearing all week that they are right in the middle of a possible playoff run, the Broncos are due for a letdown this week. It is hard to win four games in a row in the NFL let alone five.

Final Score: Minnesota-24 Denver-10

Thursday Night Football Pick!

Seattle (+3) over Philly: "It's the 4-7 Eagles at the 4-7 Seahawks in a must win game tonight on Thursday Night Football!" The rest of the the TNF games on NFL Network are plain awful, and it kicks off tonight with this thud. I'll take the Seahawks because it is Vince Young on the road, East Coast team going West on a short week, and I just can't stand Philly. Take the 'Hawks and the points at home.

Broncos Pull One Out Again Late at San Diego!

The Broncos went into San Diego yesterday against a desperate Chargers team. On the road, against a team that has owned them, Denver and Tim Tebow did it again with another improbable comeback win over the Chargers in overtime 16-13. Denver trailed 10-0 early in the second quarter, but a Tebow to Eric Decker touchdown pass late in the first half, cut the lead to 10-7. The second half played out just the way Broncos wanted it to: Keep it close, stick with the game plan on offense, play great defense, and win it late. Down 13-7, the Broncos were able to cut the lead to 13-10. With the help of a Nick Novak missed field goal, it became Tebow Time once again. Down by three and facing a 3rd and 11 from his own 25, Tebow stood in the pocket, waited, and finally found Eric Decker open deep. On his best throw of the game, Tebow threw a beautiful ball to Decker, who made an unbelievable diving catch for a 39 yard gain to the Chargers 36. Tebow then hit Dante Rosario down the sideline for a 23 yard gain down to the San Diego 12, and the Broncos were knocking on the door. After the Chargers held, with some help by some questionable Denver play-calling, the Broncos tied it at 13 with a Matt Prater field goal. Norv Turner went very conservative with the ball and over 1:34 left in the game, and the game headed to overtime. In OT, Tebow and the Broncos twice had possession. A challenged call from the booth overturned what would have been a Broncos first down on a completion from Tebow to Jeremiah Johnson on third and 11. Johnson's elbow hit down just a half yard short of the first down. The Chargers began to put together a drive, and Ryan Matthews began to run through the Denver defense. With the ball at the 35 yard line. The Broncos stuffed three straight runs, and it set up a 53 yard field goal attempt by Novak. Novak missed it right, and Denver had the ball for the third time in the extra frame. Tebow and the Broncos made them pay this time. Tebow sprinted right for a first down, up the middle for a short gain, and then Willis McGahee galloped for 24 yards to the San Diego 17. From there, Prater ended it with a dramatic 37 yard field goal, and the Broncos won it 16-13. The past four weeks have been as exciting and entertaining for a Broncos fan in years. There is really no way to describe it. The Broncos are now sitting at 6-5, and second in the AFC West. Also, they are only trailing the Bengals by a game for the final wild card spot. As remarkable as Tebow was late again, the defense deserves the credit. They harassed Philip Rivers all game long, and they were able to get stop after stop in crucial situations. The Broncos are not only believing in Tim Tebow. They believe in themselves, and that could make for a very fun next month for the Broncos and their fans. Here are my quick thoughts and observations from the game.......

1) Say what you want about Tim Tebow's passing ability, but with the game on the line Tebow delivered from the pocket. His 3rd down throw to Eric Decker was simply sensational, and he threw the ball well for most of the game. If it wasn't for a few big drops his numbers would have been better, and the Broncos offense might have scored more points. It is amazing to watch him every week. He is now 5-1 as a starter this year, and you can't argue with those numbers.

2) The Broncos defense is playing lights out. Elvis Dumervil had two sacks and is back to creating havoc. Von Miller is the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and his stop on Mike Tolbert late in overtime was tremendous. Their secondary is playing very well, and they finally got after Philip Rivers and kept him in check. The Orange Crush defense would be very proud of how the Broncos have played the last four games.

3) The turning point in the game was late in the first half. The Chargers had the ball at the Denver 44 with 6:08 left and up 10 points. A score there could have really put the Broncos in trouble. Instead Denver's defense got a three and out, and eventually Denver got the late score to make it 10-7.

4) I'm not going to go crazy about John Fox's decision making because he is playing the percentages and trusting his defense in overtime. Denver faced a 4th and 1 from their own 44 on the first possession, and Fox elected to punt. Denver got the ball back and faced a 4th and inches from their own 39, and again Fox elected to punt. It worked out in his favor, but if the Broncos lost, people would be looking at those two decisions again.

5) Willis McGahee continues to be a beast and he gained 117 yards on the ground yesterday. He is so good running the ball out of the spread attack. He simply gashed the Chargers on those inside runs, especially late in the game and in overtime.

6) The Chargers have been a thorn in the Broncos side the past five seasons. With their backs against the wall, you knew this was going to be a slugfest for the Broncos. They were able to keep it close, and they made the plays at the end to win it. It was so nice to see them bury Philip Rivers and walk out of San Diego with a huge win because the Chargers have owned them for so long. If you take out the Ed Hochuli game in 2008, the Broncos have only beaten the Chargers once since 2006.

7) The Broncos are now 6-5 and in the thick of the AFC West and AFC Playoff picture. They head to Minnesota next week to take on a feisty Vikings team. The bottom line is that the Broncos have made a remarkable turnaround from 1-4, and who knows where this could be headed. I just know one thing: Winning is contagious, and I just don't want this run to end.

Week 12 Picks!

As Bill Parcells used to say, "You want to be playing your best football around Thanksgiving." This motto was passed on to Bill Belichick and you will hear that a lot from not only Belichick, but a lot coaches this weekend in the NFL. From now through the end of the year, some teams will begin to hit their stride for the playoffs, while other teams will see their season turn upside down. Don't look at the NFL standings right now and don't even bother paying attention to potential seeds in each conference. It will not look like that come Christmas time and Week 17. This weekend we begin to find out who is going to make a run and who is going to fall off. The games get bigger each week, and this week gives us a glimpse into what is to come down the stretch in the 2011 season. Onto the picks for Week 12.......

Last Week's Record: 3-9-2

Overall Record: 60-75-11

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Arizona: The Rams have been really bad this season on offense. Everyone thought the Rams were going to win the NFC West, but the question is now that Steve Spagnuolo's job could be in jeopardy if they don't put together some wins the next six games. They should be able to win and cover at home this week against the equally disappointing Cardinals.

NY JETS (-8) over Buffalo: Every Jets fan was miserable after the Jets lost at Denver last week, but their schedule is going to get them back in the AFC playoff race. They host Buffalo this week, and then play at Washington and at home vs. KC. They should be 8-5 easily heading into their final three games.

CINCY (-7) over Cleveland: The Bengals played two tough games against the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks, only to come up short both times. Look for their defense to get the best of Colt McCoy and the Browns this week. Cincy gets to 7-4 with the win.

JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Houston: This pick is solely on the fact that I just don't know what to expect from Matt Leinart as the Texans starting QB. If Matt Schaub didn't go down to a season-ending injury, then Houston could have easily nailed down the number two seed in the AFC this year. We have to see what Leinart can do in these next few weeks before we hand the AFC South to the Texans.

Carolina (-3) over INDY: Cam Newton has to take care of business this week at Indy. The Panthers can play defense, but they might not need it this week. I love that the Colts absolutely suck this year. I love that they are the laughingstock of the NFL. It just makes me happy.

Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE: I'm not a Tampa Bay fan, but I just have a hunch that they pull this game out. The Bucs played hard in Lambeau last week, and Tennessee is just one of those teams that you can't trust as a favorite.

Minnesota (+9) over ATLANTA: This game looks like an easy win for the Falcons, but I'm going to bet on a late cover by the Vikings to make it closer than expected.

OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago: If Jay Cutler doesn't go down, then the Bears would have easily made the playoffs, been the five seed in the NFC, and they would have been very dangerous in the playoffs. I'm not ready to just think that Caleb Hanie can step in and guide the ship. I know he played well in the second half of the NFC Title Game, but that was one half of football.

Washington (+4) over SEATTLE: The Redskins started 3-1, but have now lost six straight games and are now 3-7. Mike Shanahan can't lose seven straight can he?

New England (-3) over PHILLY: Philly is banged up and Vince Young will start again for the injured Mike Vick. New England's schedule down the stretch looks very winnable, and it should start with a big win at home over the Eagles.

Pittsburgh (-9) over KANSAS CITY: Can the Steelers blow this game on Sunday Night against Tyler Palko? I don't think so.

New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: I'm going to buck the trend and take the Giants on the road. Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will bury the G-Men on Monday Night, but the Giants will respond with a very gutty effort.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver: Can the suddenly surging Broncos deliver the kill shot to the Chargers? Can the Chargers lose their sixth straight game? Can Tim Tebow deliver the type of passing game to quiet all the critics? Will Philip Rivers snap out of his funk against a team that he simply owns? There are so many storylines in this game, that this should have been flexed in for the Sunday Night game over Pitt-KC. I just can't see the Chargers losing at home in an absolute must win game.

Final Score: San Diego-27 Denver-9

Orton Waives Goodbye and Thanksgiving Day Picks!

The Broncos waived Kyle Orton on Tuesday. After the Broncos started 1-4, Orton was benched in favor of Tim Tebow. From the moment Orton was benched, you knew his career in Denver was over. He will be a free agent next season, and there was no chance the Broncos were going to sign him. Kansas City claimed Orton off waivers, and it looks like Orton will get a chance to QB the Chiefs down the stretch, especially since Matt Cassel is on injured reserve. This does set up the possibility of an Orton-Tebow showdown in Denver as the Chiefs and Broncos will square off in Week 17. We'll worry about Orton down the road when we get to that point, but trust me I'm not shedding a tear about the end of the Kyle Orton Era in Denver. I wanted Orton gone in the middle of last season, and I finally got my wish. Of all the QBs that were tabbed as the successor to John Elway (A list that includes Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler), he was my least favorite and least talented. I'm sure someone will look at his numbers and say that he will somehow get the Chiefs into the playoffs and win the AFC West, but when you watch Orton game-by-game and snap-by-snap, you realize is simply isn't the guy. Let's just hope it doesn't come back to bite us the last game of the season.

Before I get to my Thanksgiving Day picks, did the NFL hit a home run with this year's slate of Thanksgiving games? It is great that the Lions are good this year, so adding them and the Packers is fantastic. The Cowboys are having a good season at 6-4, and having them go up against a feisty underdog like Miami, winners of three in a row, should be at least somewhat competitive. Lastly, the NFL Network nightcap features the Harbaugh brothers doing battle with their two teams a combined 16-4. Not a bad day for NFL football. One last thing on the Turkey Day matchups. I really liked the idea by the NFL to add the third game on Thanksgiving Night back in 2006. The only problem with the idea is that the games have been pretty non-competitive. Here are the games dating back to its' inception in 2006:

1)2006-Kansas City-19 Denver-10 (The "Jake Plummer Gets Benched" Game for all those Broncos fans out there.)

2)2007-Indy-31 Atlanta-13 (The "Oh Shit We Scheduled This Before We Found Out Michael Vick Was Running a Dog Fighting Ring" Game.)

3)2008-Philly-48 Arizona-20 (The "Never Rely on Arizona Or Other Western Teams Traveling East on a Short Week" Game.)

4)2009-Denver-26 Giants-6 (The "Josh McDaniels Was a Decent Coach For One Night" Game, and The "Moment the 2009 Giants Mailed It In" Game.)

5)2010- Jets-26 Cincy-10 (The "Hey Shove the Jets Down Everyones Throat" Game, and The "Wow! Carson Palmer Really Blows" Game.)

As you can see, the Thursday Night Thanksgiving Classic hasn't exactly lived up to that billing, but let's hope this year's game is a little better than the previous five matchups.

Here are the picks for Thanksgiving..........

Green Bay (-6) over DETROIT: I was going to pick the Lions all week mainly because they haven't won a Thanksgiving Game since 2006, Ford Field would be rocking, and the Packers are due for a loss; however, when I looked at it closer, I think the Packers win this game by at least 10 points. Here is why: First, the home field is important for the Lions, but their crowd isn't going to be pumped up for an early kickoff (12:30 EST) as opposed for a Monday Night Game like they played against the Bears in October. Plus, the Lions aren't playing well lately, and the Packers played Tampa Bay tighter last week, so they will be on their game this short week. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to continue to be undefeated for one more week.

DALLAS (-7) over Miami: The Cowboys find themselves at 6-4 and tied for the lead in the NFC East. The Dolphins come in at 3-7 and winners of their last three. A lot of people have told the Cowboys how difficult this game could be and it is a classic trap game. I'm not buying it one bit. Give the Dolphins credit: They have played hard all year long, but this week the Cowboys dominate. I just can't shake the image of DeMarcus Ware tracking down Matt Moore all game long. The Boys win easily.

BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco: The 49ers have totally exceeded expectations and find themselves at 9-1. Every week, I am waiting for the Niners to play a dog game, and every week they prove me wrong. I just don't see them winning this game. Trust me, I'm not a believer in Baltimore, but this game just seems like a game the Ravens pull out near the end. Should be a fun game to watch, but look for the Ravens to finish the Niners off late.