As I was sitting there on Monday night, I kept saying the same thing over and over again: Peyton Manning must be really pissed he came back for this with this team. The Broncos were down 24-0 at halftime to the San Diego Chargers on MNF, and they were staring down the barrel to a 2-4 start, and the rest of the season was going to be a struggle. Peyton Manning decides to return, chooses Denver over San Fran and Arizona, and now he is stuck with a team that can't get out of its own way, drop passes, fumble balls, take killer penalties, and a below average defense. Now, he is on a 2-4 team that could be well on its way to a really disappointing season. At 24-0, that is what I was thinking about. I also was thinking about shutting off the television, and for the first time in a long time stop watching the game and go to bed. I didn't because you can never turn off a game. You just never know. Well, I was lucky that I didn't go to bed. What transpired in the second half might have been one of the biggest moments in recent Broncos history. It certainly could be the turning point for this season. The Broncos rallied from a 24-0 hole to put up 35 unanswered points to shock the Chargers in San Diego 35-24. Denver improves to 3-3 and sits atop the AFC West with the 3-3 Chargers as they head into the bye week. It was a memorable game and it was one of the most exciting comebacks in Denver and NFL history. It certainly ranks up there for me. It was such a huge comeback, and hopefully it will spark the Broncos the rest of the way. Here are my quick thoughts on the game......
1) The Broncos make mistakes like a JV football team. Two muffed returns and the Broncos are down 10-0 in the first quarter. It is really pathetic to watch this team at times this season.
2) Down 10-0, Peyton Manning hits Eric Decker in stride for a wide open touchdown, and Decker fell down at the San Diego 40. He just fell down! Instead of making it 10-7, Manning ends up throwing a pick six(Thanks for coming down Matt Willis) to Quentin Jammer to make it 17-0. I couldn't believe this actually happened. It was laughable at that point.
3) I know it was huge that Denver scored on the first drive of the third quarter on a Manning to Demaryius Thomas hookup to make it 24-7, but the real turning point in the game was the fumble recovery and touchdown by Tony Carter to make it 24-14. Elvis Dumervil sacked and forced a Philip Rivers fumble and Carter was at the right place at the right time to scoop it up and score. At 24-14 the game changed and the Broncos were really back in the game.
4) Manning's two best throws of the game were a critical 3rd and 16 to Jacob Tamme to get a first down when they were 24-14. That play set up a Manning to Decker touchdown that got Denver within three. His second best throw was the throw to Stokley to take a 28-24 lead with 9:03 left. It was an amazing throw and an amazing catch. What a sequence of events from Manning. You could just feel the crowd knew what was happening as Manning was conducting the comeback.
5) Chris Harris continues to impress and his game-sealing pick six was a great play. With just over two minutes remaining and the Chargers on the move, Harris broke in front of a Rivers pass and pick it off in the flat and went untouched into to the end zone for the punctuation mark on an incredible victory.
6) Manning was unreal last night. He completed 16-17 passes in the second half. His final numbers were great: 24-30, 309 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He was unbelievable in the second half, and it was a moment that will rank up there with some of the greatest moments in Peyton Manning's historic career.
7) At 3-3, the Broncos head into the bye week tied for first place in the AFC West. Last night was a huge win for this team. I said all along that with their schedule if the Broncos were 3-3 heading into the bye, then the Broncos were going to be in good shape. Now, with the schedule getting somewhat easier, the Broncos can set their sights on the AFC West crown. Last night won't mean anything if the Broncos don't take advantage and win this division.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Week 6 Picks
CLEVELAND (+2) over Cincy: The Browns are 0-5, and they are due for their first win. They are in the midst of one of the worst runs in recent football memory. Dating back to last season, the Browns have lost 11 in a row, and they are 1-14 in the last 15 games. The Browns are really due for a win, and they get it here over the Bengals.
Indy (+4) over NY JETS: The Jets played inspired on Monday Night in a tough 23-17 loss to the Texans. Now, they host the 2-2 Colts and logic would suggest that the Jets will win. I'm not so sure about that. The Jets may end up winning the game, but I think Andrew Luck will come out and play really well against Rex Ryan's defense. This one is close, so I'll take the Colts and the points. Get the Tebow train rolling!
Tampa Bay (-4) over Kansas City: The Chiefs are a disaster, and Matt Cassel was cheered when he got hurt on Sunday. They played well enough to upset the Ravens, but they turn the ball over like a middle school football team. The Bucs will do enough to win this game outright in Tampa on Sunday.
ATLANTA (-8) over Oakland: The Falcons are 5-0 and won a tough road game in Washington last week. They return home to take on the Raiders. We know how good the Falcons are at home, and the Raiders always seem to lay an egg on the road in the early game on the East coast. Look for another thumping by the Falcons as they get to 6-0.
Dallas (+4) over BALTIMORE: Here is my upset of the week: The Cowboys go into Baltimore and shock the Ravens. The Ravens are due for a home loss, and they beat the Browns by six and the Chiefs by three the past two weeks. Look for this one to be close, and Tony Romo makes a key throw late in the game to win it for the Boys.
Detroit (+4) over PHILLY: Can you really trust the Eagles? Is Mike Vick one more turnover-filled game away from getting benched? I know the Lions have been disappointing, but I think they get things turned around at least for one week.
MIAMI (-3) over St.Louis: Interesting game between two feisty teams. The Rams come in at 3-2. It is the first time they are over .500 since 2006. That is pretty remarkable. I like the Fish in this one because they are at home, and I really think the Miami defense is solid.
New England (-3) over SEATTLE: Tricky game for the Pats going out West, but after watching their offense last week in the win over Denver you have the feeling that they are clicking on all cylinders. The Seattle defense is good, but the Pats will find a way.
Buffalo (+4) over ARIZONA: A lot of people are taking Arizona, but I'm going the other way. I have been disappointed in the Bills this year, and their defense has been awful. This is one of those games where it looks obvious that the Cards will win, but I'll go with the Bills and the upset.
WASHINGTON (-2) over Minnesota: The Vikings are a surprising 4-1, and look like a legitimate sleeper in the NFC, but this week it all comes crashing down on the road. Take the Skins at home, and look for RG III to help them get to 3-3.
New York Giants (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO: The matchup of the day features a rematch from the NFC Championship Game. I think the Niners are the better team right now, but no one plays better as an underdog than the Tom Coughlin-Eli Manning Era Giants. The best part about this game is the fact that it is a 4:00 pm EST start which coincides with the Yankees and Tigers Game 2 ALCS with starts at the exact same time. This will lead to grumblings and mumblings from the old-guard G-Men/Bronx Bomber faithful about scheduling and game times. By the way, the Giants win it outright.
HOUSTON(-4) over Green Bay: I'm going to go with the Texans this week because this is the first ever Sunday Night Football game in Houston since the Texans joined the league in 2002. You have to side with a crowd that will be very pumped up and excited for their first SNF game in franchise history. Take the Texans and let's continue to debate what the hell is wrong with the Packers for the next month.
SAN DIEGO (-1) over Denver: Denver could have a huge advantage because the Chargers come in banged up on the offensive line, secondary, and even their kicker is out. Could I see Denver and Peyton Manning rolling into San Diego on Monday Night Football and taking care of business? Sure I can, but the problem with this Broncos team is that I can't trust them yet. I know that Peyton Manning is doing everything he can to help this team win, but I can't trust their defense, their running game isn't clicking, and they just make too many mistakes on both sides of the ball. The Chargers and Phillip Rivers own the Broncos, and I have a feeling that they will do it one more time.
Final Score: Chargers-27 Denver-20
Indy (+4) over NY JETS: The Jets played inspired on Monday Night in a tough 23-17 loss to the Texans. Now, they host the 2-2 Colts and logic would suggest that the Jets will win. I'm not so sure about that. The Jets may end up winning the game, but I think Andrew Luck will come out and play really well against Rex Ryan's defense. This one is close, so I'll take the Colts and the points. Get the Tebow train rolling!
Tampa Bay (-4) over Kansas City: The Chiefs are a disaster, and Matt Cassel was cheered when he got hurt on Sunday. They played well enough to upset the Ravens, but they turn the ball over like a middle school football team. The Bucs will do enough to win this game outright in Tampa on Sunday.
ATLANTA (-8) over Oakland: The Falcons are 5-0 and won a tough road game in Washington last week. They return home to take on the Raiders. We know how good the Falcons are at home, and the Raiders always seem to lay an egg on the road in the early game on the East coast. Look for another thumping by the Falcons as they get to 6-0.
Dallas (+4) over BALTIMORE: Here is my upset of the week: The Cowboys go into Baltimore and shock the Ravens. The Ravens are due for a home loss, and they beat the Browns by six and the Chiefs by three the past two weeks. Look for this one to be close, and Tony Romo makes a key throw late in the game to win it for the Boys.
Detroit (+4) over PHILLY: Can you really trust the Eagles? Is Mike Vick one more turnover-filled game away from getting benched? I know the Lions have been disappointing, but I think they get things turned around at least for one week.
MIAMI (-3) over St.Louis: Interesting game between two feisty teams. The Rams come in at 3-2. It is the first time they are over .500 since 2006. That is pretty remarkable. I like the Fish in this one because they are at home, and I really think the Miami defense is solid.
New England (-3) over SEATTLE: Tricky game for the Pats going out West, but after watching their offense last week in the win over Denver you have the feeling that they are clicking on all cylinders. The Seattle defense is good, but the Pats will find a way.
Buffalo (+4) over ARIZONA: A lot of people are taking Arizona, but I'm going the other way. I have been disappointed in the Bills this year, and their defense has been awful. This is one of those games where it looks obvious that the Cards will win, but I'll go with the Bills and the upset.
WASHINGTON (-2) over Minnesota: The Vikings are a surprising 4-1, and look like a legitimate sleeper in the NFC, but this week it all comes crashing down on the road. Take the Skins at home, and look for RG III to help them get to 3-3.
New York Giants (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO: The matchup of the day features a rematch from the NFC Championship Game. I think the Niners are the better team right now, but no one plays better as an underdog than the Tom Coughlin-Eli Manning Era Giants. The best part about this game is the fact that it is a 4:00 pm EST start which coincides with the Yankees and Tigers Game 2 ALCS with starts at the exact same time. This will lead to grumblings and mumblings from the old-guard G-Men/Bronx Bomber faithful about scheduling and game times. By the way, the Giants win it outright.
HOUSTON(-4) over Green Bay: I'm going to go with the Texans this week because this is the first ever Sunday Night Football game in Houston since the Texans joined the league in 2002. You have to side with a crowd that will be very pumped up and excited for their first SNF game in franchise history. Take the Texans and let's continue to debate what the hell is wrong with the Packers for the next month.
SAN DIEGO (-1) over Denver: Denver could have a huge advantage because the Chargers come in banged up on the offensive line, secondary, and even their kicker is out. Could I see Denver and Peyton Manning rolling into San Diego on Monday Night Football and taking care of business? Sure I can, but the problem with this Broncos team is that I can't trust them yet. I know that Peyton Manning is doing everything he can to help this team win, but I can't trust their defense, their running game isn't clicking, and they just make too many mistakes on both sides of the ball. The Chargers and Phillip Rivers own the Broncos, and I have a feeling that they will do it one more time.
Final Score: Chargers-27 Denver-20
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Week 6 Thursday Night Pick!
Pittsburgh (-6) over TENNESSEE: I have picked the Titans virtually every week, yet I keep losing with them. I only time I got one of their games right was when I had them upsetting the Lions in Week 3. This is a tricky spot for the Steelers, but they are the better team right now, and I just can't trust the Titans, so I'm taking the Steelers in a sloppy game.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Broncos Fall to Pats in Foxborough
The much anticipated Peyton Manning-Tom Brady duel on Sunday did not live it to the classic battles that these two have played in the past. Overall, the Broncos did not deliver a classic performance in this high profile battle. The Broncos again showed that they are not in the class of the NFL's elite with a 31-21 loss at the hands of Brady and Patriots. At 31-7, Denver started to make one of their patented comebacks in the second half, but it fell short after Willis McGahee fumbled inside the 10 down 31-21 with 3:42 remaining in the game. Unfortunately, the Broncos lost another game in which they made mistakes on offense, couldn't get off the field on defense, and fell behind big only to try and make a miracle comeback that fell short. This game didn't live up to the hype, but it clearly showed how far the Broncos are away from being a big-time Super Bowl contender. Here are my quick thoughts on the game................
1) The Pats fast, no-huddle attack completely kept the Broncos off guard on defense. The Broncos got mowed down in the run game, they couldn't get off the field on third downs, and Wes Welker killed them in the passing games. Stevan Ridley had 151 yards rushing and it felt like he had over 250. The Broncos defense is bad, and unless they turn it around quickly, it is going to be an Achilles heel for them all year long.
2) The Broncos make mistakes like a high school team. Demaryius Thomas fumbled a ball deep into Patriots territory set the tone for the day. Willis McGahee had a key drop on a fourth down in the fourth quarter, he fumbled late in the game down 10, and Peyton Manning fumbled in the third quarter to give the Pats another opportunity to score. You can't have that and win in the NFL no matter who you are playing.
3) The key moment for this game was when the Broncos were down 14-7 in the second quarter. They punted on a 4th and 5 from the NE 39. It was a call that I didn't like, but they punt the Pats deep at their own 2 yard line. The Pats proceed to go the length of the field, and settle for a 23 yard field goal to make it 17-7. It would have been 21-7 if not for a great play by Von Miller. That sequence killed the Broncos at the end of the half. The next time Denver had the ball, they ran it to Lance Ball on a 3rd and 8 at their own 48. The Pats converted a 3rd and 17 on a Danny Woodhead running play, and they scored to make it 24-7. That whole sequence of events put the game away in my mind.
4) Von Miller was an absolute beast yesterday. His stop on third and goal late in the first half was a huge play, and one of the best defensive efforts of the season. He also forced a fumble late in the game and added another sack. He was sensational yesterday.
5) The killer play for me was the Woodhead run on 3rd and 17. That play help the Pats put up a 24-7 lead, and if the Broncos get a stop there, then maybe they get themselves back into game earlier and not leave it up to another improbable comeback.
6) Peyton Manning was great yesterday. He went 31-44 for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns. Put it this way: It is not his fault that the Broncos are 2-3. Yes, his arm is still not there 100% but he has played really well the last two games. He did fumble once in the third quarter on a sack, and he did miss a couple of passes, but he really didn't have the ball a lot in the third quarter thanks to the Patriots offense. Manning did his job for the most part on Sunday. After five games, he is completing 66% of his passes, has over 1,500 yards in the air with 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. That is not a bad start for a guy who missed all of last season.
7) The Patriots are just not a good matchup for the Broncos. No matter what the circumstances are I just can't see the Broncos upsetting the Patriots anytime in the near future.
8) In my mind the first must-win game of the season is next week. At 2-3, Denver trails San Diego by one game in the AFC West. A win in San Diego next Monday night would put them in a tie for first at 3-3 after six weeks. I really think Denver needs to win this game. If they lose, then they will be 2-4 and two games out of first. It is gut-check time for the Bronx as they head into a very critical AFC West showdown with their old friend Phillip Rivers.
1) The Pats fast, no-huddle attack completely kept the Broncos off guard on defense. The Broncos got mowed down in the run game, they couldn't get off the field on third downs, and Wes Welker killed them in the passing games. Stevan Ridley had 151 yards rushing and it felt like he had over 250. The Broncos defense is bad, and unless they turn it around quickly, it is going to be an Achilles heel for them all year long.
2) The Broncos make mistakes like a high school team. Demaryius Thomas fumbled a ball deep into Patriots territory set the tone for the day. Willis McGahee had a key drop on a fourth down in the fourth quarter, he fumbled late in the game down 10, and Peyton Manning fumbled in the third quarter to give the Pats another opportunity to score. You can't have that and win in the NFL no matter who you are playing.
3) The key moment for this game was when the Broncos were down 14-7 in the second quarter. They punted on a 4th and 5 from the NE 39. It was a call that I didn't like, but they punt the Pats deep at their own 2 yard line. The Pats proceed to go the length of the field, and settle for a 23 yard field goal to make it 17-7. It would have been 21-7 if not for a great play by Von Miller. That sequence killed the Broncos at the end of the half. The next time Denver had the ball, they ran it to Lance Ball on a 3rd and 8 at their own 48. The Pats converted a 3rd and 17 on a Danny Woodhead running play, and they scored to make it 24-7. That whole sequence of events put the game away in my mind.
4) Von Miller was an absolute beast yesterday. His stop on third and goal late in the first half was a huge play, and one of the best defensive efforts of the season. He also forced a fumble late in the game and added another sack. He was sensational yesterday.
5) The killer play for me was the Woodhead run on 3rd and 17. That play help the Pats put up a 24-7 lead, and if the Broncos get a stop there, then maybe they get themselves back into game earlier and not leave it up to another improbable comeback.
6) Peyton Manning was great yesterday. He went 31-44 for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns. Put it this way: It is not his fault that the Broncos are 2-3. Yes, his arm is still not there 100% but he has played really well the last two games. He did fumble once in the third quarter on a sack, and he did miss a couple of passes, but he really didn't have the ball a lot in the third quarter thanks to the Patriots offense. Manning did his job for the most part on Sunday. After five games, he is completing 66% of his passes, has over 1,500 yards in the air with 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. That is not a bad start for a guy who missed all of last season.
7) The Patriots are just not a good matchup for the Broncos. No matter what the circumstances are I just can't see the Broncos upsetting the Patriots anytime in the near future.
8) In my mind the first must-win game of the season is next week. At 2-3, Denver trails San Diego by one game in the AFC West. A win in San Diego next Monday night would put them in a tie for first at 3-3 after six weeks. I really think Denver needs to win this game. If they lose, then they will be 2-4 and two games out of first. It is gut-check time for the Bronx as they head into a very critical AFC West showdown with their old friend Phillip Rivers.
Friday, October 5, 2012
NFL Week 5 Picks!
The rule of thumb in the NFL is that the surprise teams will always make a splash in the beginning of the season, but after four weeks their schemes will get figured out by other teams and the contenders and pretenders will separate. Last night, the 4-0 Cardinals lost their first game of the season to the Rams 17-3. The Cards gave up nine sacks on the night. On paper, Arizona is a 4-1 team with its only loss coming on the road against a feisty rival. In reality, the Cardinals are a 4-1 team that is very flawed. They can't block a sole in pass protection. Kevin Kolb was scared to death when he dropped back last night. If, or when, he goes down, there is nothing John Skelton will be able to do as well. Their offensive line is a major problem and it is going to dampen their hopes of a playoff run this year. They might be 4-1 right now, but it wouldn't surprise me if they are 4-4 or 5-4 in a month. That is what happens. Teams figure out your schemes, your weaknesses and everyone goes to work on it in preparation to beat you. October is when those changes start to happen. Last night was the perfect example.
Onto the picks......
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 26-33-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Atlanta (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Falcons pulled one out late last week at home against Carolina. They are flying with a 4-0 record right now. The Skins got a great comeback win late last week at Tampa Bay behind the arms and legs of Robert Griffin III. This game is really, really tricky. I'm tempted to pick the Redskins, but I like the matchup of Atlanta's offense versus Washington's defense too much.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Philly: At 1-2, the Steelers need a win badly. They will get it at home this week. There is no way the Steelers are headed for a 1-3 start to 2012. The Eagles won another close game last week at home against the Giants, but they won't pull it out this week. Look for a close game, but Pittsburgh puts it away late.
Green Bay (-7) over INDY: Distractions can be very tough to deal with in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Colts faced a major distraction this week when they found out that Head Coach Chuck Pagano will miss most of the season because he was diagnosed with Leukemia. That is a really tough thing for the Colts to deal with. The Packers got a must needed win at home last week against the Saints, and they are the better team. You are giving up a touchdown on the road, but take the Packers over the Colts.
NY GIANTS (-8) over Cleveland: The Giants lost a really tough game to Philly last week. The Browns were valiant in defeat against the Ravens last Thursday. This has the potential of being a closer game that advertised, but the G-Men are simply a lot better than the Browns. Take the Giants and lay the points.
Tennessee (+6) over MINNESOTA: Everyone is starting to jump on the Vikings bandwagon with their surprising 3-1 start. Christian Ponder has been impressive too, but I'm not totally sold on handing the Vikings the 2012 sleeper status just yet. Matt Hasselback replaces an injured Jake Locker for the Titans, and that might actually jumpstart their offense. The Titans pull a mini-upset in Minnesota on Sunday.
Miami (+5) over CINCY: The Bengals are a good team, but I'm still not sold on them. I have to see them do it consistently against the Steelers and the Ravens. The Dolphins lost their last two games in overtime, and they very well could be 3-1 right now. This might be a ballsy pick, but I'm taking the Dolphins on the road this week. This is the upset special of the week: Miami wins 17-14.
Baltimore (-6) over KANSAS CITY: I have been wrong with the Chiefs all year long. Last week, I thought they were a lock at home, and they turned the ball over three times in the first quarter. They were down 20-0 to the Chargers before you even blinked. I know the Chiefs are due for a home win, but do you trust Matt Cassel at this point? When your head coach says that Brady Quinn could see some playing time this week, then you can't be too pumped up if your a Chiefs fan. Although the Ravens can be shaky on the road as favorites, take them this week.
CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle: The Panthers should have won their game at Atlanta last week. They played really well. I think Cam Newton comes out and plays great this week. The problem with the Panthers might be that Ron Rivera isn't a good Head Coach right now. Regardless, look for the Panthers to get to 2-3 and look for a big day out of Newton.
Chicago (-6) over JACKSONVILLE: Blaine Gabbert against the Bears defense is a pretty bad matchup for Jaguars fans. The Bears will roll into Florida and take care of business and roll out of there with a 4-1 record.
SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over Buffalo: This is a high spread, and I was thinking about taking the Bills, but then you look at the matchup and think about this: Ryan Fitzpatrick has to go toe-to-toe with that 49ers defense. That will be really tough for the Bills to overcome. Plus, throw in the East Coast to West Coast travel scenario, and the Bills are in for a long afternoon.
San Diego (+4) over NEW ORLEANS: The Sunday Night game is an interesting one. The Saints are 0-4, and everyone wants to talk about Drew Brees possibly breaking the record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass. Who the hell cares about that record when the Saints are 0-4? The Chargers come in at 3-1 on the heels of their beatdown against the Chiefs last week. They will handle their business and send the Saints packing to 0-5.
NY JETS (+8) over Houston: The Jets 34-0 defeat at the hands of the 49ers was very tough to watch even if you weren't a Jet fan. Then, the news came down this week that Santonio Holmes is going to be out for the season, and Woody Johnson might pressure Rex Ryan to play Tim Tebow at quarterback soon. In the NFL, things are as bad as they seem sometimes. The Jets have looked pretty bad at times the last two weeks, but it can't get any worse than last week. The Texans come to town on MNF, and everyone expects the Jets to get killed. I beg to differ. Usually, a team will respond the next week after a really bad performance the week before. That is what I expect out of the Jets this week. They probably won't win, but they will keep it closer than people think.
NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Denver: The Manning-Brady rivalry resumes this Sunday in Foxborough. What scene it will be up there as the Broncos take on the Pats in a really crucial game for both teams. I am sure CBS was hoping both teams would be undefeated coming into this game, but they find themselves each at 2-2. This should be a very interesting game, but here is why I think the Broncos will have a tough time winning this one: How are they going to defend Rob Gronkowski? The Broncos defense played well at home last week against the Raiders, but Tom Brady and the Patriots are a different animal. I just don't see anyone being able to slow Gronk down over the middle. Plus, I am worried about the Pats wearing down Denver's front seven in the run game. New England has been able to run the ball really well this year. Denver will be able to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but no one does a better job of scheming, game-planning, and disguising against Peyton Manning than Bill Belichick. Expect some fireworks early, but the Patriots will put it away in the fourth quarter. In any event, it will one hell of a scene and it will be fun to watch.
Final Score: Pats-38 Broncos-24
Onto the picks......
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 26-33-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Atlanta (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Falcons pulled one out late last week at home against Carolina. They are flying with a 4-0 record right now. The Skins got a great comeback win late last week at Tampa Bay behind the arms and legs of Robert Griffin III. This game is really, really tricky. I'm tempted to pick the Redskins, but I like the matchup of Atlanta's offense versus Washington's defense too much.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Philly: At 1-2, the Steelers need a win badly. They will get it at home this week. There is no way the Steelers are headed for a 1-3 start to 2012. The Eagles won another close game last week at home against the Giants, but they won't pull it out this week. Look for a close game, but Pittsburgh puts it away late.
Green Bay (-7) over INDY: Distractions can be very tough to deal with in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Colts faced a major distraction this week when they found out that Head Coach Chuck Pagano will miss most of the season because he was diagnosed with Leukemia. That is a really tough thing for the Colts to deal with. The Packers got a must needed win at home last week against the Saints, and they are the better team. You are giving up a touchdown on the road, but take the Packers over the Colts.
NY GIANTS (-8) over Cleveland: The Giants lost a really tough game to Philly last week. The Browns were valiant in defeat against the Ravens last Thursday. This has the potential of being a closer game that advertised, but the G-Men are simply a lot better than the Browns. Take the Giants and lay the points.
Tennessee (+6) over MINNESOTA: Everyone is starting to jump on the Vikings bandwagon with their surprising 3-1 start. Christian Ponder has been impressive too, but I'm not totally sold on handing the Vikings the 2012 sleeper status just yet. Matt Hasselback replaces an injured Jake Locker for the Titans, and that might actually jumpstart their offense. The Titans pull a mini-upset in Minnesota on Sunday.
Miami (+5) over CINCY: The Bengals are a good team, but I'm still not sold on them. I have to see them do it consistently against the Steelers and the Ravens. The Dolphins lost their last two games in overtime, and they very well could be 3-1 right now. This might be a ballsy pick, but I'm taking the Dolphins on the road this week. This is the upset special of the week: Miami wins 17-14.
Baltimore (-6) over KANSAS CITY: I have been wrong with the Chiefs all year long. Last week, I thought they were a lock at home, and they turned the ball over three times in the first quarter. They were down 20-0 to the Chargers before you even blinked. I know the Chiefs are due for a home win, but do you trust Matt Cassel at this point? When your head coach says that Brady Quinn could see some playing time this week, then you can't be too pumped up if your a Chiefs fan. Although the Ravens can be shaky on the road as favorites, take them this week.
CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle: The Panthers should have won their game at Atlanta last week. They played really well. I think Cam Newton comes out and plays great this week. The problem with the Panthers might be that Ron Rivera isn't a good Head Coach right now. Regardless, look for the Panthers to get to 2-3 and look for a big day out of Newton.
Chicago (-6) over JACKSONVILLE: Blaine Gabbert against the Bears defense is a pretty bad matchup for Jaguars fans. The Bears will roll into Florida and take care of business and roll out of there with a 4-1 record.
SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over Buffalo: This is a high spread, and I was thinking about taking the Bills, but then you look at the matchup and think about this: Ryan Fitzpatrick has to go toe-to-toe with that 49ers defense. That will be really tough for the Bills to overcome. Plus, throw in the East Coast to West Coast travel scenario, and the Bills are in for a long afternoon.
San Diego (+4) over NEW ORLEANS: The Sunday Night game is an interesting one. The Saints are 0-4, and everyone wants to talk about Drew Brees possibly breaking the record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass. Who the hell cares about that record when the Saints are 0-4? The Chargers come in at 3-1 on the heels of their beatdown against the Chiefs last week. They will handle their business and send the Saints packing to 0-5.
NY JETS (+8) over Houston: The Jets 34-0 defeat at the hands of the 49ers was very tough to watch even if you weren't a Jet fan. Then, the news came down this week that Santonio Holmes is going to be out for the season, and Woody Johnson might pressure Rex Ryan to play Tim Tebow at quarterback soon. In the NFL, things are as bad as they seem sometimes. The Jets have looked pretty bad at times the last two weeks, but it can't get any worse than last week. The Texans come to town on MNF, and everyone expects the Jets to get killed. I beg to differ. Usually, a team will respond the next week after a really bad performance the week before. That is what I expect out of the Jets this week. They probably won't win, but they will keep it closer than people think.
NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Denver: The Manning-Brady rivalry resumes this Sunday in Foxborough. What scene it will be up there as the Broncos take on the Pats in a really crucial game for both teams. I am sure CBS was hoping both teams would be undefeated coming into this game, but they find themselves each at 2-2. This should be a very interesting game, but here is why I think the Broncos will have a tough time winning this one: How are they going to defend Rob Gronkowski? The Broncos defense played well at home last week against the Raiders, but Tom Brady and the Patriots are a different animal. I just don't see anyone being able to slow Gronk down over the middle. Plus, I am worried about the Pats wearing down Denver's front seven in the run game. New England has been able to run the ball really well this year. Denver will be able to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but no one does a better job of scheming, game-planning, and disguising against Peyton Manning than Bill Belichick. Expect some fireworks early, but the Patriots will put it away in the fourth quarter. In any event, it will one hell of a scene and it will be fun to watch.
Final Score: Pats-38 Broncos-24
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5 Thursday Night Pick!
When the NFL schedule came out in April, this game between the Rams and Cardinals was not a game that many people got very excited about. In fact, most NFC West games are not considered "Must See" matchups; however, this game now has some juice. The Cardinals are the surprise team of the first month of the season. They are 4-0 and are getting a defense that is playing at a high level, quality coaching, and they are getting a resurgence by QB Kevin Kolb. The Rams have played very well in Jeff Fisher's first season. At 2-2, they defeated the Redskins and Seattle, while losing a close games to Detroit and Chicago on the road. This game is tough to call, but I have picked the Rams a lot so far this year, so I will stick with them at home once again.
ST.LOUIS (+3) over Arizona
ST.LOUIS (+3) over Arizona
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Broncos Bury Raiders to get to 2-2
The Broncos did what they had to do on Sunday at home against the Raiders: They won convincingly. After coming off back-to-back losses, the Broncos desperately needed to get a win, and they needed to play well. The Broncos did just that. A convincing, blowout win is not something that Bronco fans have been accustomed to the last few years, but we got one with the 37-6 win over their AFC West rivals. The win puts Denver at 2-2 as they head into a big showdown next week at New England. Here are my thoughts about the Week 4 victory.....
1) The Raiders had defeated the Broncos the last four times in Denver, so you know that the Broncos were due to beat them at home. It was hard to get a read on Denver after their losses to the Texans and Falcons, but they were able to take care of business and win going away. This game reminded me of a classic late 90s Mike Shanahan-John Elway Era victory: Close for a while, but the game gets put out of reach by the third quarter. It was close at the half, 10-6 in favor of the Broncos, but Denver scored on three straight third quarter possessions and the next thing you know it was 31-6. It was a much needed win for this team, and it is always nice to have an easy and relaxing win.
2) The Broncos have had trouble stopping Darren McFadden the past few years, but this week they absolutely shut him down. They held him to only 34 yards rushing, and the Broncos defense flew around the field all day long. They held the Raiders to 1-12 on third down conversions. The signature moment was when they stuffed McFadden on a 3rd and 2 in the second quarter. It was a good bounce back week for the Broncos defense.
3) Peyton Manning quieted some of his critics with a terrific performance. He was fantastic going 30-38 for 338 and 3 touchdowns. He spread the ball around and got everyone involved. He led them to a touchdown on their first drive, and the offense never looked back. They looked in sync in the passing game, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker combined for 12 catches and 182 yards. Jacob Tamme was also very clutch on third down, so the Broncos passing game was hitting on all cylinders.
4) What were the Broncos thinking when they attempted a fake field goal up 10-3 late in the first half? Matt Prater's attempt was really bad, and the Broncos were lucky that it didn't come back to bite them.
5) David Bruton's block punt with the Broncos up 17-6 was the real killer for the Raiders. Willis McGahee punched it in a few plays later, and at 24-6 the game was effectively over.
6) The only blemish on the afternoon was the loss of C J.D. Walton to a season-ending ankle injury. It is a key loss, but it offset by the signing of Dan Koppen back in September. That move is crucial because Koppen was the center for eight years in New England, so he should be able to acclimate himself into the Peyton Manning-led no huddle offense.
7) The Broncos needed a big win at home this week, and they got it. I wasn't too worried after they lost to the Falcons and the Texans. Both of those teams were a combined 8-0. Denver needed a statement win, and they needed to beat the Raiders soundly. They did that in all phases: offense, defense, and special Teams.
1) The Raiders had defeated the Broncos the last four times in Denver, so you know that the Broncos were due to beat them at home. It was hard to get a read on Denver after their losses to the Texans and Falcons, but they were able to take care of business and win going away. This game reminded me of a classic late 90s Mike Shanahan-John Elway Era victory: Close for a while, but the game gets put out of reach by the third quarter. It was close at the half, 10-6 in favor of the Broncos, but Denver scored on three straight third quarter possessions and the next thing you know it was 31-6. It was a much needed win for this team, and it is always nice to have an easy and relaxing win.
2) The Broncos have had trouble stopping Darren McFadden the past few years, but this week they absolutely shut him down. They held him to only 34 yards rushing, and the Broncos defense flew around the field all day long. They held the Raiders to 1-12 on third down conversions. The signature moment was when they stuffed McFadden on a 3rd and 2 in the second quarter. It was a good bounce back week for the Broncos defense.
3) Peyton Manning quieted some of his critics with a terrific performance. He was fantastic going 30-38 for 338 and 3 touchdowns. He spread the ball around and got everyone involved. He led them to a touchdown on their first drive, and the offense never looked back. They looked in sync in the passing game, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker combined for 12 catches and 182 yards. Jacob Tamme was also very clutch on third down, so the Broncos passing game was hitting on all cylinders.
4) What were the Broncos thinking when they attempted a fake field goal up 10-3 late in the first half? Matt Prater's attempt was really bad, and the Broncos were lucky that it didn't come back to bite them.
5) David Bruton's block punt with the Broncos up 17-6 was the real killer for the Raiders. Willis McGahee punched it in a few plays later, and at 24-6 the game was effectively over.
6) The only blemish on the afternoon was the loss of C J.D. Walton to a season-ending ankle injury. It is a key loss, but it offset by the signing of Dan Koppen back in September. That move is crucial because Koppen was the center for eight years in New England, so he should be able to acclimate himself into the Peyton Manning-led no huddle offense.
7) The Broncos needed a big win at home this week, and they got it. I wasn't too worried after they lost to the Falcons and the Texans. Both of those teams were a combined 8-0. Denver needed a statement win, and they needed to beat the Raiders soundly. They did that in all phases: offense, defense, and special Teams.
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