TNF Bears-Cowboys Pick!!

Dallas (-2) over CHICAGO: I will be rooting for the Cowboys, and I would love to see them knock off the Bears here. It is more fun if the Cowboys get to the playoffs and lose, then to watch them flame out and not even get there, so I am pulling for the Cowboys down the stretch. Plus, I want to see Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall implode down the stretch, get another coach fired, and continue to wonder why these two ultra-talented players can't seem to get over the hump and be a playoff contender in their careers.

Broncos Head to Arrowhead and Week 12 Picks!

The Broncos head to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night for a matchup with the Chiefs. How big is this game? Well, Denver is 8-3 and the Chiefs are 7-4. A Broncos win would give them a two-game lead on the Chiefs and they would own the tiebreaker due to a sweep of the season series. A Chiefs win ties them with the Broncos for first place in the AFC West, and the Chiefs would have the advantage down the stretch with the schedule. If the Chiefs were to beat the Cardinals in Arizona the next week, then they would have a good chance of winning the division. This game is very important for the Broncos because they have tough road tests in back-to-back weeks on December 14th at the Chargers and Monday night December 22nd at the Bengals. A Broncos win would certainly help them in their chances for locking up a fourth straight AFC West crown. One thing that I was looking at in preparation for this game was the fact that Denver always seems to play at Kansas City after November 1st-especially in crucial years. Here is a list of such games and the results:

1992-Loss (Dan Reeves last game as Denver head coach and Denver was eliminated from the playoff race on the last day of the season)

1997- Loss (Pete Stoyanovich nails a 54-yarder at the gun to win it)

1998-Win (The Chiefs were bad, but the Broncos cruised with Elway injured and Bubby Brister starting)

2000- Loss (Terrible loss in freezing temperatures killed Denver's chances to win the West and they had to settle for a Wild Card berth instead)

2001-Loss (An awful overtime loss effectively ended Denver's playoff hopes)

2004-Loss (Denver still made the playoffs but this game but their hopes in serious doubt because they no longer controlled their own destiny)

2005-Loss (A tough loss, but the Broncos still rebounded to win the division)

2006- Loss (First ever Thanksgiving night game was the end of the Jake Plummer era in Denver)

2009-Win (Broncos won in a rout, but KC got revenge in final game of season at Mile High)

2011-Win (Tebow Time struck again)

2012-Win (Peyton Manning and the Broncos gutted out a 17-9 win over a hapless Chiefs squad)

2013-Win (Manning's best game as a Bronco as Denver rallied from down 21-7 to win 35-28)

2014-????

KANSAS CITY (+2) over Denver: I think a few things are going against Denver is this game. One, the Broncos are banged up on defense. Aqib Talib, Kayvon Webster, and Brandon Marshall are all hurt. It will be tough to deal with Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs with a beat up defense. Second, we know how the Broncos have struggled on the road, and this is the loudest crowd they will face. Third, the Chiefs will be emotional with the news of Eric Berry possibly having a cancerous mass in his chest. It just seems like too much to overcome for the Broncos

Final Score: Chiefs-27 Broncos-17

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 13:


Last Week's Record: 10-5
Overall Record: 91-79-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


Washington (+10) over INDY: The Colts will cruise, but I will take a shot at a late backdoor cover.

HOUSTON (-5) over Tennessee: Take the Texans and J.J. Watt at home to abuse Zach Mettenberger and the Titans.

BUFFALO (-2) over Cleveland: The Bills ride the emotion of playing in front of their home fans after last week's epic snowstorm.

San Diego (+6) over BALTIMORE: The game of the day in the AFC. The Chargers keep it close and the Ravens win it late

New York Giants (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: Tom Coughlin gets revenge on his old team.

Cincy (-3) over TAMPA BAY: The Bengals keep rolling over the crappy teams.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Oakland: The Rams take care of business at home.

New Orleans (+5) over PITTSBURGH: You really can't trust the Saints right now, but I think they pull the upset here on the road. Why? Because no one is giving them a chance and the Steelers are very susceptible at home against below average teams.

Carolina (+3) over MINNESOTA: I think the Panthers put it together and find a way to win this game.

Arizona (-2) over ATLANTA: You can't trust the Falcons or Mike Smith at this point. Take the better team on the road.

New England (+3) over GREEN BAY: Great, great game on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady going head-to-head. The Pats in Lambeau on Thanksgiving weekend. Awesome matchup and I will take the Patriots until they lose.

Miami (-6) over NY JETS: Easy pick here. The Jets are a nightmare and go back to Geno Smith at QB. The Dolphins are 6-5 and have legitimate playoff hopes, and they won't mess around here in this spot.

Thanksgiving Tripleheader Picks!

What a Thanksgiving slate of games this year! Old-school NFC North rivalry with the 5-6 Bears and the 7-4 Lions squaring off in the early game, a huge NFC East battle between two 8-3 teams with Philly heading to Dallas, and the nightcap is a rematch of last year's NFC Championship with 7-4 Seattle traveling to 7-4 San Francisco. All meaningful games with playoff implications on the line in each one. It should be a fun turkey day with a lot of football to take in. Here are my Thanksgiving picks...

DETROIT (-7) over Chicago: I shouldn't  trust Jay Cutler and Marc Trestman on the road on three days rest. The Lions have lost two in a row, and they desperately need this game. The problem with the Lions is their offense. With Calvin Johnson hobbled all year, they just can't score a lot of points. Look for the Lions to win, and I think they do just enough to cover the spread.

DALLAS (-3) over Philly: Tough game to call, but I'm going with the Cowboys for one reason: Homfield and a short week. Yes, the Cowboys got screwed by playing the Sunday night game at the Meadowlands and then playing on Thanksgiving. But you have to like the Cowboys here and I still don't trust Mark Sanchez.

SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Seattle: Another tough game to call, but I'll take the 49ers. I figure this game comes down to the end and Colin Kapernick makes one more play than Russel Wilson to win it late.

Broncos Rally Past Dolphins Get to 8-3

There was some doubt in Mile High yesterday as the Broncos faced deficits of 14-3, 21-10, and 28-17 at various points in the game to Miami. It looked like it wasn’t going to be their day, and they would suffer a crushing loss at home. But as doubt started to seep in, the Broncos rallied and pulled off a stunning comeback to defeat the Dolphins 39-36 in a huge game for both teams as far as the playoffs is concerned. The game had a real playoff feel to it, and it was one of the most impressive performances of the season for the Broncos. To battle back like that was just a tremendous compliment to their team, and it was a win that could really serve as a big moment for them going forward. Here are my thoughts and observations on the win…

1)    You had to worry about Denver’s defense after the first half. The Dolphins were able to do anything they wanted. They were running the ball effectively, and Ryan Tannehill was picking them apart. Three touchdown drives in the first half really put Denver in a hole. I’m not so sure that Jack Del Rio is the greatest defensive coordinator. I have been puzzled by him the last few weeks. At least Denver’s defense was able to rebound and play better in the second half because that first half was really bad.

2)    I love the Denver gameplan. They came out with a focus to run the ball, and they did just that. Give the offensive line credit because they controlled the line of scrimmage all day long. C.J. Anderson was great. He had 167 yards on 27 carries, and it seemed like everytime he ran the ball, he was falling forward for positive yardage. It was a great performance by the offensive line and the running game. Finally, we had that type of game this season!

3)    A lot of people texted me saying that Manning was off, but outside of missing Emmanuel Sanders on a couple of deep throws, I thought Manning was really solid. Being able to run the ball that well, will make Manning even more effective. When he needed to throw and spread the Dolphins out, he was great. He finished 28 for 35 for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. I’ll get to his drive before the half in a minute.

4)    Down 21-10, Denver needed a score before the half because they were getting the ball to start the second half. Manning orchestrated a beautiful drive, and finished the drive off with a 14 yard laser to Demaryius Thomas to make it 21-17. The key play was a big 35 yard pass to Sanders on a 3^rd and 20 to keep the drive alive. Manning was awesome on that drive, and that changed the game.

5)    After driving down the field to start the 3^rd quarter, Manning missed a wide open Wes Welker on 3^rd and goal. It was very un-Manning like to miss Welker there, and naturally Brandon McManus missed a 33 yard field goal and the Broncos were still trailing 21-17. The McManus experiment is over and it needs to end soon. He is going to kill us going forward. They need to find a new kicker. I have been saying this for a month (On Tuesday, the Broncos cut McManus and signed former Bucs kicker Connor Barth.)

6)     The Isaiah Burse fumble and Dolphins ensuing touchdown to make it 28-17 was a moment where you felt the Broncos were going to lose this game.

      7)    Great drive by Manning to cut it to 28-25. Great play call to Thomas for the touchdown. I liked the decision by Fox to go for 2 to cut it to 28-25 with 14 minutes left in the game. Even though Phil Simms didn’t like it, I thought it was the right choice.

8)    The Broncos got a big stop by their defense and forced a punt on the next drive. That drive was huge and that was the key stop that they needed.

9)    What a  championship drive by the offense and great play call to Anderson, who runs for a TD untouched to give Denver first lead of the game at 32-28.

10) Chris Harris provided blanket coverage to force a tough throw by Tannehill, which T.J. Ward picked off and returns inside the 10. That is why John Elway invested in his defense this offseason, and that is the turnover that a great defense forces late in games. Harris also proves how he is our best corner each and every week/

11)  It was nice to see Wes Welker get a touchdown on a sweet pick play with Manning to make it 39-28. Maybe we can get Welker going here in the last five games.

12) Denver’s defense couldn’t get a stop on the next Miami drive and the lead was cut to 39-36. An onside kick was recovered by Denver and the game was over. Too many times though the Broncos defense lets teams back into the game late. This game should have not come down to an onside kick. It still bothers me that they let teams drive down to make this games even closer at the end. 

13) Huge, huge win. It was a playoff type atmosphere, and a lot of breaks went against Denver. They had a bad start, trailed by 11 heading into 4^th quarter, turnovers and missed field goals looked to doom them in the second half, and they rallied back to pick up the win. Statement game to say the least

14) Great gamplan by offense. They were able to pick up for the defense who had a really bad day. The offensive line got killed by the media all week, and they just ran the ball down the Dolphins throats. It set up the play-action game, and when Manning needed to be Manning he did what he usually does.

15) Denver is now 8-3 and heading to Arrowhead for showdown with Chiefs. This win gives them some breathing room in the division. Hopefully, there is some confidence back for the Broncos and that offensive line. It will be a tough game on Sunday Night, but the Broncos definitely have what it takes to take down the Chiefs in KC.

Week 12 Picks!

All week all the talk was about how the sky is falling in Denver, and how the Chiefs are poised to win the AFC West from the Broncos. Yes, there is a lot of football left to play, and the Broncos have some serious issues. An offensive line that has been very inconsistent all year is now shuffling the unit and trying to find the right combination of players for the stretch run. That spotty O-Line play has led to some unusual erratic play from Peyton Manning and a running game that is virtually nonexistent. Throw in the injuries to Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball, and Julius Thomas, and it looks like the Broncos are in trouble. And they are in trouble to a certain extent. Are they the same team as last year? No way. Are there some concerns that this team could beat a quality opponent on the road? Yes, but we still have Peyton Manning and we still have 6 games to figure this out. There is still time to sort out these problems and get back on track towards the Super Bowl. Everyone just needs to relax a little bit and focus on the next game. Besides, we already got some help with the Raiders knocking off the Chiefs on Thursday Night. Here are the picks for Week 12....

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Overall Record: 81-74-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Cleveland (+3) over ATLANTA: Typically, the Browns looked awful last week at home against the Texans. Now, they head to 4-6 Atlanta, who finds themselves in the thick of the NFC South race. I think the Browns will rebound this week and get the win on the road to get them to 7-4.

Tennessee (+12) over PHILLY: The Eagles will win this game, but I look for the Titans to keep it closer than the line. Too many points to give the Eagles as they still try to figure out how effective Mark Sanchez will be as their quarterback.

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Detroit: The Lions are in 1st place in the NFC North, and they have one of the league's best defenses. This has all the makings of a big win on the road right? Not so fast. I see the Pats just doing their thing and blowing the doors off Detroit. Look for a big day from Tom Brady and that offense.

MINNESOTA (+9) over Green Bay: Now that the Vikings are playing outdoors, I can see that the weather could slow down Aaron Rodgers and that offense. I think the Packers will win, but look for the Vikings to keep it close.

INDY (-13) over Jacksonville: This game will not be close at all, and I think this is the lock of the week. The Colts will roll in this one at home. The Colts feast on beating the crummy teams on their schedule.

Cincy (+2) over HOUSTON: I don't see why the Texans are favored here. I know they are at home, but do you really have faith in Ryan Mallet after 1 week? Cincy got a big win on the road at New Orleans last week, so I look for them to continue that this week on the road in Houston.

CHICAGO (-5) over Tampa Bay: The Lovie Smith Bowl! The 2-8 Bucs and the 4-6 Bears! Anyway, I'm taking the Bears at home for selfish reasons because I want them to be 5-6 heading into Detroit on Thanksgiving to give that game a little more meaning, so the Bears are the pick for me.

SEATTLE (-7) over Arizona: The Cards are still the story in the NFC at 9-1, but this feels like a game where the Seahawks rise up and make a statement like "Hey, don't forget about us. We are the defending Super Bowl Champs!" Look for a rout in Seattle.

SAN DIEGO (-5) over St. Louis: Has any team lost all their bandwagon supporters like the Chargers have the past few weeks? When they were 5-1, they were considered a Super Bowl contender in the AFC and Phillip Rivers was a surefire MVP candidate. Now, they are 6-4 and everyone has jumped off their bandwagon. I think they take care of business at home to the Rams this week.

SAN FRANCISCO (-8) over Washington: When Jay Gruden comes out and publicly calls out Robert Griffin III, then you know that is a bad sign for a QB and a franchise. The Niners are starting to hit a bit of a stride here at 6-4, and a big win at home over the Skins will get them to 7-4 heading into their big showdown with Seattle on Thanksgiving Night.

NY GIANTS (+4) over Dallas: I have no faith in the Giants, but I'll pick them because this is one of those games where they can basically put everything they have left and try to ruin the Cowboys season on primetime television. I could totally get burned by this, but I am going with a hunch on this one.

New York Jets (+3) over BUFFALO: Only the Bills would have their playoff hopes possibly derailed by a massive snowstorm in Buffalo and force them to play this game in Detroit on Monday night. I'll take the Jets in this one only because their players didn't have to deal with a blizzard, missed practices, snowmobiling to the facility, and relocating to Detroit for the week.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Baltimore: I hate this pick, but I'll take the Saints because I can't see them losing three home games in a row. This has all the makings of a Ravens romp, but I think the Saints will rise up and find a way to get to 5-6.

Miami (+7) over DENVER: This game scares me because of the Dolphins defense. They are really good, and the Broncos obviously have had some struggles on offense lately. This game just scares me and I don't have a good feeling about it at all.

Final Score: Dolphins-24 Broncos-20

Chiefs-Raiders TNF Pick!

OAKLAND (+8) over Kansas City: All of the sudden the Chiefs are the team to beat in the AFC West. After starting 0-2, they are now 7-3 and tied with Denver for 1st place. With a showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs next week in Arrowhead looming, could KC be looking ahead and not focusing on the Raiders? Oakland is 0-10, and I doubt that they will go 0-16, so at some point they have to win a game. Why not shock the world and pull the upset on the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football? I'm taking the Raiders strictly because I need KC to lose, so this pick has no real merit other than the Bronco fan in me hoping the Chiefs stub their toe here.

Broncos Get Blasted by Rams 22-7

Denver’s loss on Sunday at the hands of the 3-6 Rams may have been the low point of the Peyton Manning Era in Denver. When Denver got smoked by Seattle in the Super Bowl, at least it was the Super Bowl, and they got crushed by a really good team. Sunday’s loss was a real eye-opener for numerous reasons. The Broncos got completely outplayed from the get-go, and their road woes continued. I had a sneaky suspicion that the Broncos were in trouble because they haven’t started well on the road all year long. Also, their offensive line continues to be a problem, and that will hurt any team when they hit the road. Sunday’s loss was also brutal because Denver came away banged up. Montee Ball hurt his groin and he is out indefinitely, Emmanuel Sanders suffered a concussion, and Julius Thomas hurt his ankle. It was a bad day to say the least for the Broncos, and it creates some doubt going forward.

Here are my thoughts and observations from the game…

1)    The Broncos again got off to a slow start on offense, and the next thing you knew they were down 13-0. Shaun Hill’s bomb to Kenny Britt gave the Rams the 10-0 lead, and you just knew that this was going to be trouble for Denver.

2)    The Broncos and John Fox can say what they want about the confidence in rookie kicker Brandon McManus but when you go for it on 4^th and 5 in the 1^st quarter that to me tells the story. They have no confidence in McManus! The worst part is that at least with Matt Prater once you got inside the other team’s 40, you were in field goal range. The Broncos 4^th down play failed, and the Rams capitalized on the next play to make it 10-0.

3)    I’m not going to kill the Denver defense for giving up over 100 yards to Tre Mason and giving up 22 points to Shaun Hill. The defense was put into an awful spot time after time during the game. They forced the Rams to kick 5 field goals, and they were able to get some key stops when they needed it. Don’t hang this loss on the defense.

4)    The blame for this loss goes on the coaching staff and the offense. First, our offensive line is still a mess. We can’t run the ball, and now they have problems picking up blitzes and stunts on critical downs. Also, Adam Gase completely abandoned the running game right from the start. I know Denver was down early, but at least try to keep the defense honest. I know he lost some of his weapons due to injury, but Peyton Manning wasn’t sharp at all on Sunday. He did have a sweet touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders for 42 yards to cut the lead to 13-7 in the second quarter, but he threw two awful interceptions into coverage in the second half. He now has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games. That could be very alarming, but all three of those games were on the road. He missed an open Demaryius Thomas on a deep post that would have given Denver a 14-13 lead in the 3^rd quarter. He overthrew him and Thomas would have walked into the endzone if it is a good throw. Manning needs to get back on track a little here.

5)    John Fox’s decision to not call timeouts at the end of the half and give Manning a chance to get the ball back was awful. Even Manning was shaking his head on the sideline. You have to wonder about Fox’s game management at times. It really makes you wonder if you can trust him in these big games. With 2:00 minutes left in the half, Denver had all three timeouts. They stop the Rams on 1st down on a short pass for no gain. On 2^nd down, with 1:16 to play in the half, the Rams run the ball up the middle for a gain of six. Call timeout there! Make them run a play to get the first down on 3^rd down. Fox elects not to do that for some reason, and the Rams let the clock run down and then run the ball on 3^rd down and then Denver finally takes a timeout with 30 seconds left. There wasn’t enough time after the punt and the Broncos just knelt down to end the half. Awful, awful job by Fox and his use of timeouts in that situation.

6)    It was the lowest points scored by the Broncos in the Peyton Manning Era, and it was definitely the low point for them as a franchise in the last three years. It makes you nervous because this team still has 3 really tough road games left on the schedule: at KC, at SD, and at Cincy. Now, they are tied at 7-3 with KC atop the AFC West. This is going to be a dogfight just to win the division. Their offense is not even close to last year, their running game is terrible, their offensive line is a mess, and they are very inconsistent. Throw in the fact that they have no threat in the return game, and their kicker has no confidence from the coaching staff. It is safe to say that there is a lot to be worried about in Denver right now. The Broncos are at a crossroads, and they didn’t face this type of adversity all year last year. After 10 games this year, adversity has hit them square in the face.

7)    With all that said, every team faces tough times during the season. Last year, the Broncos didn’t really have that, but this year they do. As a fan, you can’t think too far ahead. Don’t worry about homefield advantage, seeding, and division titles. Just worry about winning the next game. For the Broncos, that is this Sunday at home against a dangerous Miami Dolphins team. This will not be an easy game at all-especially with the injuries and uncertain statuses of Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. All week you are going to hear how Denver is fading. All week you will hear about the decline of Peyton Manning and all the other flaws that this team has. That doesn’t mean anything as long as they go out and win at home over the Dolphins on Sunday. Get to 8-3 and worry about the next game. That has to be the mindset.