Conference Championship Random Thoughts

Super Bowl XLIV is set. The Indianapolis Colts will take on the New Orleans Saints in Miami on Sunday February 7th. It is the first time both number one seeds will be facing off in the Super Bowl since Dallas and Buffalo squared off in Super Bowl XXVIII. The hype will start to rev up by the end of the week, and I will preview the big game as we get closer to next week. Before we get there, we need to look back at Conference Championship weekend. It was a good slate of games and both home teams won for the second year in a row. Here are some random musings about the games....

AFC Championship: Indianapolis defeats New York Jets 30-17.

1) Great play call by Brian Schottenheimer down 3-0 in the second quarter. Mark Sanchez hit Braylon Edwards with a 80 yard bomb off of a play-action on first down to put the Jets in the lead 7-3.
2) Give Mark Sanchez credit because he played really well and gutsy all game long. His touchdown pass to Dustin Keller was a great play to put the Jets up 14-6.
3) The Jets got to Peyton Manning early in the game and kept the Colts out of rhythm. If you would have told a Jet the following was going to happen in the game: Jets would hold the Colts to two field goals for most of the first half, force a fumble by Joseph Addai, and get two touchdown passes by Mark Sanchez and a big pass from Brad Smith to Jerricho Cotchery. Do you think Jet fans would have thought they were winning the game?
4) Once the Jets led 17-6, Peyton Manning took over. His 4 play 80 yard drive was a thing of beauty capped off by a touchdown pass to Austin Collie. Everyone in America knew the Jets were in trouble once the Colts scored to make it 17-13 right before the half.
5) The Jets needed to get points to stave off Indy when they got the ball to start the second half. Once Jay Feely missed that 52 yard field goal, you could tell the Colts were going to take over. Manning to Pierre Garcon gave the Colts the 20-17 lead and they never looked back.
6) Peyton Manning is probably going to be the best Quarterback of all time, but a lot of his success goes to Howard Mudd and Tom Moore. Those guys are great coaches who have been around the NFL for a long time. You knew those two would get together with Manning to figure out how to attack the Jets.
7) Give the Jets credit. They played hard and made a great run in the playoffs. They lost to the best team in the NFL and the best QB alive. There is nothing to be ashamed of. They have a good Head Coach and a good young nucleus to be a very good team next year. That doesn't guarantee that they will be back in the AFC Championship Game in 2010, but they will be a favorite in the AFC East for sure.
8) The Colts have not lost a game this year when they played all of their starters (16-0). This team is loaded and will be next year and for many years after.

NFC Championship: New Orleans defeats Minnesota 31-28 in Overtime

1) How did the Vikings lose this game? They outgained the Saints 475 to 257. They ran 82 plays compared to 55 for the Saints. They were 7-12 on 3rd down and the Saints were 3-12. Of course the five turnovers did them in, but the Vikings outplayed the Saints all night.
2) Brett Favre can make you happy one minute, and then he can kill the next. His interception with 7 seconds left in the game was an absolute dagger. Favre always is shaky in big spots, just like in the 2007 NFC Title Game.
3) Adrian Peterson ran well and was a beast, but his fumbling is killing him. It has become an epidemic. That will be a huge storyline for him going into next year.
4) The pass interference call on Ben Leber in overtime was a disgrace. How can the officials decide the game like that? Just an awful call. Overtime in the playoffs in the NFL should be like OT in the NHL playoffs. The refs should just put the flags and whistles away and let the players decide the outcome.
5) The Vikings 12 men in the huddle penalty late in the fourth quarter will go down as one of the biggest coaching blunders ever. A lot of people get on Brad Childress as a game manager and now we know why. What a terrible job by him. It will take a lot before Childress ever lets this one down.
6) Kudos to Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Payton is a very good coach, and Drew Brees is a fantastic QB. Those two really saved the Saints franchise.
7) The Saints make their first Super Bowl appearance ever. The franchise and that city deserves to enjoy this moment.
8) My heart goes out to all the Vikings fans out there. What a gutwrenching loss. With all due respect to the Bills, Jets, Eagles, and Browns, there is no fan base that has suffered more than the Minnesota Vikings. Think about these awful losses in their history: 1) All four Super Bowl losses 2) 1975 Playoff loss to Dallas on the Hail Mary play 3) 1987 loss at the goalline in the NFC Championship against Washington 4) 1992 playoff loss at home to Washington 5) 1994 playoff drubbing at home to the Bears 6) 1998 NFC Championship loss to Atlanta (Enough Said) 7) The 2000 NFC Title debacle at the Giants 41-0 7) The 2003 season finale loss at Arizona on the last play to knock them out of the playoffs and now 8) 2009 NFC Championship loss at New Orleans. I feel bad for Viking fans. This was their year, and they will never forget how close they were to getting to the Super Bowl. This loss will last with them for a lifetime.

Next Week.....Super Bowl XLIV coverage

Conference Championship Picks!

The last real Sunday of the NFL season is upon us. Championship Sunday is the real last NFL day because the Super Bowl is about everything else but the game. The celebrities, the parties, the commercials are all elements of the Super Bowl, and the real die-hard NFL fan gets pushed aside by Moms, Wives, and mainstream America. The Conference Championships are a special day in the NFL. Two games, played back to back, that will decide who goes to the Super Bowl. The history of recent Championship Sunday is this: You usually get one good game and one blowout, and you get at least one road team winning. Also, the matchup that everyone wants to see never comes to fruition. Last year was an exception: Two home teams won (Arizona and Pittsburgh) and both games were close. In 2007, one road team won (Giants) and Giants-Packers was a classic, while Pats-SD was a boring game. 2006 saw both home teams win, but Indy-NE was a fantastic game. In 2005, one road team won (Pitt) and in 2004, both home teams won. In 2003, one road team won (Carolina) and both games were pretty close. In 2002, one road team won (Tampa) and both games were pretty close. Here's my point, since 2002, both road teams did not win the Conference Title games. You have to go back to 1997 (GB and Denver) to find two road teams winning this weekend. Throw in the fact that the enticing matchup of Jets-Vikings would require both road teams winning, then you know that it won't happen this year. In any event, enjoy the games on Sunday. It's the last great NFL day until next September. It's an exciting day of football, but it is also a sad day because it is one step closer to the end of the season. Onto to the picks....

Last Week: 2-2
Overall Playoff Record: 3-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Minnesota: Think about how loud the Superdome will be on Sunday. This is a great matchup for the NFC Championship. These two teams were the best in the NFC from Week 1. Philly got some publicity late in the season, and the Cowboys gained some credibility from Week 17 into the playoffs, but if you look at the bigger picture, the Vikes and Saints were the best teams in the NFC all season long. Both fanbases are dying to win this game. This is the best Viking team since '98, and a win this Sunday could alleviate some pain from the 1998 loss to Atlanta and the 2000 debacle at the Giants. The Saints have been this far only once (2006) and have never hosted a NFC Title game. This is the best Saints team ever, and this game could develop into a shootout. I think Favre will play very well on the road, but the Saints will make one more big play on offense. Drew Brees is a different QB at home, and that Saints offense resembles a fast break offense playing on their home court. The game will be back and forth, but Brees will make a play or two late to secure the Saints first Super Bowl appearance.
Final Score: New Orleans-34 Minnesota-24

New York Jets (+8) over INDIANAPOLIS: The last time the Colts and Jets played this big of a game it was Super Bowl III. The Colts and Peyton Manning have all the pressure. They are at home, favored, and must justify resting their starters at the end of the season and forgoing the 16-0 mark. The Jets have the classic underdog look to them. They have the free-spirited Head Coach, naive rookie QB, dominating defense, and a punishing running game. They have played the "No one thought we were here" routine since Week 16. This game just smells like a classic upset. Can't you just see Manning getting frustrated with Rex Ryan's defense and pouting on the sidelines, while yelling at his receivers for dropping some easy passes. Can't you see Matt Stover shanking two field goals, and the cameras panning to Adam Vinatieri standing on the Colts sideline? Can't you see Mark Sanchez making one or two plays that no one thought he could make? I do, and I'll tell you why: It is the Jets time. As much as I hate to say it, it is true. It is their time. As obnoxious and arrogant their fans are, it is their time. The law of averages applies to this. You root for a team long enough, and at some point they will come through for you. Look at the Red Sox in 2004. It is bound to happen. The Jets have knocked on destiny's door a few times, and they have failed their fans each time. Week 16 against the second-string Colts changed all that. Last week's win over San Diego was a game the Jets normally would lose, but they held on. It is just their time. Sometimes in sports teams will get on an improbable run, and it can't be stopped by anyone-including Peyton Manning. I don't know if the Jets will win the Super Bowl, but for the first time since Joe Namath walked off the field after Super Bowl III, the Jets will make it to the Super Bowl. I never thought I would type those words, but it is just their time.
Final Score: Jets-20 Colts-17

Coaching Moves in Denver

Last week, Rick Dennison left Denver to become the Offensive Coordinator in Houston and join his old pal, Gary Kubiak. Running Backs coach Bobby Turner left to become Associate Head Coach with Mike Shanahan in Washington. Both moves were not surprising. Monday it was annoucned that Denver and Mike Nolan had parted ways mutually. It seems that the Miami Dolphins had expressed interest in Nolan, and Josh McDaniels wasn't willing to give them permission to talk to him. After some discussion internally, McDaniels and Nolan parted ways leaving Nolan the opportunity to become the Defensive Coordinator in Miami- a position which he accepted on Tuesday. I wouldn't look too much into the situation. McDaniels is looking for new Defensive Coordinator. The front-runner is Dean Pees, formerly the DC of the Patriots. McD and Pees worked with each other in New England for a number of years. Stay tuned to see where all the chips will fall in the coaching puzzle.

The San Diego Chokers

As much as I loathe the New York Jets, Sunday's game against the Chargers was a bit satisfying. The Chargers choked away another playoff opportunity and this may have been the worst one. In 2004, San Diego was 12-4 and hosting the Jets in the Wild Card Round. Many people felt that the Chargers were a dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl, and they could upset either New England or Pittsburgh later in the playoffs. Well, San Diego was shocked by the Jets at home 20-17, and the Chargers failed to make the playoffs in 2005. In 2006, the Chargers finished with a NFL-best 14-2 record, and they had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Once again, San Diego fell in their first playoff game in a crushing 24-21 loss to New England. Out went Marty Schottenheimer and in came Norv Turner. In 2007, the Chargers finished 11-5, and beat Tennessee in the first round, and upset Peyton Manning and the Colts on the road in the Divisional round. The Chargers fell to 17-0 New England in the AFC Title Game, and it was assumed that the Chargers had taken care of their playoff demons. In 2008, the Chargers won the division with an 8-8 record, and they defeated Indy in the first round of the playoffs. The Chargers lost in the second round to Pittsburgh on the road, but the feeling around the league was that the Chargers were close and were one of the favorites going into 2009. The Chargers started '09 2-3, but they ripped off 11 in a row to finish 13-3 and the number 2 seed in the AFC. In came a 9-7 Jets team and many people felt the Chargers were the only team that could defeat the Colts on the way to the AFC Title and a Super Bowl berth. Once again, the Chargers' playoff demons came back to haunt them, and they lost to the Jets 17-14. Where does this leave the Chargers? Well, from a Bronco fan perspective, you would hope that the window is closing. In the modern NFL, you can only be on top for so long. You can only win so many division titles in a row before eventually you can a dip downward. Look at the Giants. Two years ago they were Super Bowl Champions. Last year, they finished 12-4. This year they finished 8-8 and now have to rebuild their defense and reload. They made the playoffs four years in a row, but the fifth straight year was not to be. There are many reasons why a team can fall off. One reason is that it is hard to maintain a high-level of play year after year. Another reason is that the difference from 11-5 to 7-9 is so small and marginal. Two bad games and you finish 8-8 instead of 10-6. Also, the physicality of the NFL takes a toll on the offensive and defensive lines. No position goes south quicker than the boys upfront. Some lines can remain the same the next year, but their level of play just drops off. The Chargers could fall victim to each of these factors. Plus, it is obvious that the Chargers' core group (Rivers, Norv, LT, Merriman, Jackson etc...) plays better when they are down or the underdog. If they are favorites or the lead dog, then they come up small in all areas: Coaching, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. They are better when they are counted out like they were in 2008. They are better when they are the underdog in the playoffs like in 2007 and 2008 against Indy. The bottom line is that the window could be closing. All of those home playoff games and division titles are hard to come by and you can't take it for granted. At some point there has to be a payoff of at least one Super Bowl appearance. For the Chargers and their fans it hasn't happened. The Chargers will always be a threat as long as Phillip Rivers is around, but maybe the door is a little more open in the AFC West now that the Chargers have choked away another playoff run. Stay Classy, San Diego!

Divisional Round Thoughts

We are down to the final four in the NFL, as the Divisional Round is complete. It wasn't the greatest set of games on Divisional Weekend, but it did set up some very intriguing Championship games next week. Let's go back and take a look at the Divisional Playoffs...

New Orleans defeats Arizona 45-14

1) The Saints looked ready and confident and played their best ball in a month. They completely overwhelmed the Cardinals, and they looked like the team that started 13-0.

2) The Cards ran out of gas. We were waiting for this type of game by the Cards since last year's playoffs, but they surprised us everytime. Kurt Warner is a great player, but even he could get the Cards through this game.

3) Reggie Bush stepped up and made the kind of impact that we were used to seeing when he was at USC. He is gamebreaker, and his touchdown run and punt return were classic Reggie Bush plays.

4) I'm happy for Drew Brees. I always liked Drew Brees when he was at Purdue, and he really has meant so much for New Orleans and the community. He is a good guy, and he has had such an impact for that franchise. The Saints host the NFC Title game for the first time, and they can make their first ever Super Bowl appearance if they win next week.

Indianapolis defeats Baltimore 20-3

1) This game turned when Baltimore went three and out with under two minutes to go in the first half and down 10-3. By giving Peyton Manning another possession before the half, you are going to get burned. Manning delivered with a TD pass to Reggie Wayne and it was over from there.

2) Ed Reed's interception of Manning could have made this game closer, but when he got stripped by Indy's Pierre Garcon, that was it for the Ravens.

3) The Colts didn't look super efficient on offense, but they did enough when they needed to. Maybe Peyton needed a week to get going.

4) The Ravens need to find themselves a big time receiver. I'm sure they will explore Brandon Marshall in the offseason.

5) The Colts defense is very underrated, and it has been all season long. They get no credit, but they tackle so well.

Minnesota defeats Dallas 34-3

1) Give Brad Childress and Brett Favre credit: They wanted to work with each other because they believed they could win the Super Bowl, and now they are one step away.

2) Jared Allen and the Vikings defensive line just flat out destroyed the Cowboys and Tony Romo. It wasn't even a fair fight.

3) The Favre-Sidney Rice combination became one of the most dangerous overnight this year. What a performance by Rice with three TD catches.

4) The Cowboys looked like the hot team and were poised to make a run, but they were dominated by Minnesota. The better team won, and the Vikings deserve all the credit, but Tony Romo was terrible all day long.

5) Wade Phillips should keep his job, and the Cowboys have a bright future. Their core group (Romo, Jones, Austin, Witten, Ware) is young so they should be in contention next year.

6) The Vikings head to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2000. They could be headed to their first Super Bowl since 1976.

Jets defeat San Diego 17-14

1) Wow, where do we start with this game? The Jets ability to run the ball consistently has been phenomenal in the playoffs. When they wanted to run it, they ran it on the Chargers.

2) For the second straight week, Mark Sanchez wasn't spectacular, but he made some big throws on third down. You have to tip your cap to him. His touchdown throw to Dustin Keller on 3rd and Goal in the fourth quarter was a great play. That put the Jets up 10-7, and they didn't look back.

3) Shonn Greene is the best running back out of the 2009 Draft class. He ran for over 100 yards the second straight game, and his touchdown run was a backbreaker to give the Jets a 17-7 lead late in the fourth.

4) Once again the Jets defense came through. They just kept coming after Philip Rivers, and they did a great job to keep the Chargers offense off balanced. Give credit to Rex Ryan because he did a great job coaching for the second week in a row.

5) The Jets improbably advance to the AFC Championship for the first time since 1998 (A loss to Denver thank you very much).

6) As much as the Jets deserved to win, and I don't want to take any credit away from them, the Chargers pulled another Playoff chokejob.

7) Nate Kaeding's 36 yard missed field goal on the first drive set the tone for the game. His second missed field goal from 40 yards late in the fourth quarter was plain awful.

8) Philip Rivers couldn't get it going in the second half, and the Chargers made too many mistakes on offense. Too many penalties just killed any momentum they had going on offense.

9) If that was LaDanian Tomlinson's last game as a Charger, what a way to go out. Brutal.

10) Why is Norv Turner going for an onside kick down 3 with 2:14 left and one timeout? Why? Just when you think Norv has turned the corner, he proves that he sucks as a big time head coach? I'll take Josh McDaniels anyday.

11) Five Division Titles in six years. Four straight AFC West Titles. 12-4 in 2004 14-2 in 2006, 11-5 in 2007, 13-3 in 2009 and no Super Bowls to show for it. Three of those times the Chargers lost at home in their first game. I'm not saying the Chargers are done, but opportunity only knocks for so long.

Divisional Weekend Picks

Many NFL pundits and experts believe that this weekend is the best weekend of football for the entire year. You get doubleheaders on both Saturday and Sunday, and the top seeds in both conferences get into action. As much as I love this weekend, I don't necessarily love it more then the Wild Card weekend. Those two weeks are pretty much equal to me. A regular season Sunday is still the best for me because you have as many as 14 games from 1:00 pm EST to 7:00 pm and a Sunday Night game to cap off the evening. Anyway, this weekend sets up some great matchups, but you can't count on all the favorites. Going back to 2002, this round averages about 2 road teams that advance. Last year, we had 3 road teams, so expect some underdogs and road teams to pull the upsets. Onto to the picks.....

Last Week: 1-3
Overall Playoff Record: 1-3
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Arizona (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: This could potentially be another wild shootout involving Kurt Warner and Drew Brees. You have to like the Saints at home, but you can't like how the Saints played down the stretch. The Cardinals can obviously put up points, and the Saints love to blitz, which plays perfectly into Warner's hands. The Cards are so dangerous in this spot, and the Saints have a lot of pressure. I'll go with history and Warner.
Final Score: Arizona-31 New Orleans-26

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Baltimore: These two teams played a classic game in the regular season won by the Colts. I know the Colts laid down the last two weeks, and the pressure is on, but I like Peyton Manning in this game because he has seen and played the Ravens already. You can't give Manning two chances at a team because he will find the weaknesses and exploit them. Also, if Manning misses on his first opportunity, he can come back and take advantage of the next opportunity when it arises. The Ravens secondary is their weakness, and they were able to sidestep that weakness last week in the win over New England. I'll take the Colts and Manning to move on.
Final Score: Indy-28 Ravens-17

Dallas (+4) over MINNESOTA: All of the pressure is on the Vikings this week. This is the only reason why Brett Favre came back. It is Super Bowl or bust for the Vikings and Favre, and they drew a tough Cowboys team in the Divisional Round. The Cowboys defense is playing fantastic and Tony Romo will make one more play then Favre.
Final Score: Dallas-24 Minnesota-21

New York Jets (+7) over SAN DIEGO: This is the year for the Chargers. They really feel that this is their best shot since 2006 to get to the Super Bowl. I think that will be too much pressure for them on Sunday. Look, I hate the Jets. I really, really hate the friggin Jets, but I just have this funny feeling all week. I've learned my lesson about a superb defense vs. a great offense. Recently, the team with the best defense wins the game (See Super Bowl 42-Giants over Pats). The only way the Jets got into the playoffs was because the Colts laid down in Week 16. Maybe we are just destined to see the Jets get a chance to play the Colts the next week in the AFC Championship.
Final Score: Jets-22 Chargers-21

Random Notes Part II

More random thoughts regarding last Sunday's Wild Card matchups....

Baltimore defeats New England 33-14

1) The Ravens justified their entry into the playoffs with their performance on Sunday. Ray Rice's 83 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game set the tone, and the game wasn't even as close as the score.

2) Ray Lewis was fantastic on Sunday. If you doing a Mount Rushmore of greatest defensive players in NFL history, Lewis has to be in that discussion.

3) We live in a world where Joe Flacco beats Tom Brady in a playoff game, while throwing for 34 yards. Unbelievable.

4) Turnovers change any game in the playoffs, and the Ravens got three in the first quarter, but they were clearly the more physical and better team in this game.

5) I'm not ready to announce that this is the end of the Patriots' run. They obviously still have to retool and reload, but with Brady and Belichick you will always have a chance. Don't pour the dirt on the Patriots grave just yet. They will be back with a vengenance.

Arizona defeats Green Bay 51-45

1) A fun game and easily one of the most exciting playoff games in a long time. A wild shootout that explemified the new NFL. If you have a great QB, then the game is set up for big plays in the passing game, and both teams took advantage of that.

2) Kurt Warner solidified his spot as a Hall of Famer in my mind after his game on Sunday.

3) Give Aaron Rodgers credit. His was fantastic in this game, and the Packers are set up to be a contender in the NFC for a long time. We might look back on the Packers as their signature game in their run this decade. He will regret missing Greg Jennings on a long bomb to start overtime. That will bother him all offseason.

4) Mike McCarthy did a great job on Sunday. His decision to go for an onside kick at 31-17 was the perfect move at the right time. That is the responsibility of a NFL head coach. He understood how the game was playing out and he made a decision that best suited the team and the type of game they were in.

5) The Cardinals are scary and they could very easily go into New Orleans this week and beat the Saints. They are very dangerous this week on the road.