Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Week 9 TNF Pick
CINCY (-9) over Cleveland: Another weak matchup for a NFL Thursday Night Football. The 7-0 Bengals play host to the Browns, who will turn to Johnny Manziel at QB for the injured Josh McCown. The Bengals get the benefit of going up against Johnny Football on a short week at home. I'll take the Bengals to roll.
Monday, November 2, 2015
Broncos Trade for Vernon Davis
The Broncos made a trade deadline deal with the 49ers on Monday. Denver sent a 6th round pick in 2016 and 2017 to San Francisco in exchange for a 2016 7th round pick and Vernon Davis. Davis will immediately make an impact on this offense, and he now adds a new weapon to Peyton Manning and this offense. This was a very surprising but great move by John Elway to add a real third option to this passing game. The Broncos actually incorporated their two other tight ends into the passing game last night as Virgil Green and Owen Daniels combined for 100 yards in the air in the win over Green Bay. This move will certainly help the Broncos add some more firepower to that position and this offense.
Broncos Dominate Packers to go to 7-0 in Showdown of Unbeatens
The Broncos and Packers met Sunday night in a battle of two 6-0 teams in what was definitely the most anticipated game of this season. One team showed up and looked the part, and one team didn't step up to the plate. The Broncos were the team that showed up and played like a dominant 6-0 team, and they proved it by pouncing the Packers 29-10 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. It was an impressive performance that was almost as close to a perfect game as you can have, and if there was any question about how good this defense is, then this game might have provided the answer. Denver's defense swarmed Aaron Rodgers, and they held the Packers and there offense to only 10 points, 77 yards passing, and 140 yards in total offense. If was a virtuoso performance considering they were going against the best QB in the NFL. Peyton Manning put in a performance that we were used to from the last few years. Manning was in complete command of the offense, and he hit deep and intermediate passes all night long. The running game really got going, and the offensive line keep Manning from getting sacked They finally scored a touchdown on the first drive, and they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back. The game was never in doubt. It was about as dominating of a win that you can get, and now the Broncos are 7-0 heading into Indy for a rematch with the Colts on Sunday afternoon. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game...
1) This game was what we wanted to see out of this offense all year long. Manning came out firing on all cylinders. There was a lot of play-action, bootlegs, and long-range passes to Demaryius Thomas to get the drive going. The Broncos scored their first touchdown in the first quarter all year, on a 1 yard touchdown run by Ronnie Hillman. That drive really set the tone for the game.
2) Give the defense credit for stepping up their game. They got after Rodgers right from the get go, and the secondary was awesome. Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby blanketed the receivers and really Rodgers had nowhere to go with the ball. Also, Demarcus Ware, Von Miller, and Shaq Barrett continued to get after Rodgers and force early throws. They pressured him and harassed him all night long.
3) The key to the second drive was when Manning hit Thomas deep down the sideline for a 47 yard gain to the Green Bay five yard line. It was one of few times Manning hit a pretty deep ball all year long. It was like a throwback to 2013. The play set up a Hillman 15 yard touchdown run and Denver expanded their lead to 14-0.
4) The Broncos offense continued to take control of the game, and on the next drive they started getting the tight ends going with some big throws to Owen Daniels and Virgil Green. Also, C.J. Anderson started to look like the player he was last year, and he burst off a 19 yard run on a crucial 3rd and 2 to set up a field goal and a commanding 17-0 lead.
5) You knew the Packers were going to get back into the game at some point, but the only way they managed to get back in this game was the aid of a pretty shaky roughing the passer call on David Bruton to extend a drive after a third down incompletion. The Pack took advantage of that call and a Eddy Lacy touchdown run made it 17-7 before the half.
6) By the way, how many cheap calls did the refs make on the Broncos? They gave the Packers a few first downs on some really shady holding calls in the secondary. I hate when the refs get themselves too involved in the game.
7) The Broncos gave up a field goal to start the third quarter and all of a sudden it was a 17-10 game, but you knew the Broncos were going to get going again on offense in the second half. After Manning carved up the Packers secondary again with big passes to Thomas and Andre Caldwell, C.J. Anderson capped off the drive with a great 28 yard run on a 3rd and 2 to give Denver a 24-10 lead. It was the perfect answer, and it seemed to take the life out of the Packers.
8) From there, the Broncos defense shut the door on Rodgers and the Packers. A big sack by Antonio Smith ended one drive, and then a swarming attack led by Ware caused a fumble by Rodgers and a safety to make it 26-10 in the 4th quarter.
9) A late field goal made it 29-10, and the Broncos put the finishing touches on one of the more impressive victories the Broncos have had in recent years. I was happy about the victory on a night that they inducted Pat Bowlen into the Ring of Fame. I should have seen this Broncos performance coming because it was a big Sunday night game, and the induction of their owner into the Ring of Fame made this a game the perfect time for this team to break out and play a complete game from start to finish. Kudos to the Broncos for stepping up to the moment.
10) The Broncos defense answered the bell and completely shut down Aaron Rodgers and this offense. The Broncos and Wade Phillips gave Rodgers a tremendous amount of different looks and pressures and they kept him off balance and off his spot all night. They shut down anything on the perimeter with the speed of their linebacking corps. The secondary was lights out as we mentioned before, and it certainly proved that this Broncos defense is not just hype.
11) Peyton Manning was awesome last night, and he was able to quiet down some of his critics. He was 21-29 for 340 yards. He didn't throw a touchdown and he threw one meaningless interception late in the game, but he was sensational all night long. He hit deep balls to Demaryius Thomas, and he constantly cut the Packers defense to shreads down the middle with deep and intermediate throws to DT and the tight ends. He spread the ball around, and he looked comfortable and confident in what the game plan was trying to do. He even did a nice job in the play action game, and he even booted a little bit and it looked good. Don't sleep on Manning. He is not out of the woods yet, but I think last night proved that he isn't done just yet. I'm happy for Manning, and if he continues to roll like this, then look out.
12) The running game finally got going in the fashion that we all expected it to look like before the season started. C.J. Anderson rushed 14 times for 101 yards and 1 touchdown, and Ronnie Hillman ran 19 times for 60 yards and two touchdowns. If this can continue to get better each week, then the Broncos offense will really start to click and get going. The best part about it was Hillman and Anderson really showed their ability last night. Both hit the hole hard and ran with confidence. You felt like they were going to get a first down or a big run everytime they got the ball.
13) Give Gary Kubiak credit for last night's performance. The team looked rested and ready in all three phases of the game, and he gets credit for getting his team prepared for a game of this magnitude. The offensive game plan was really solid and he called a brilliant game. The defense continued to wreak havoc and their game plan was solid as well. That was a big game and Kubiak did a really great job getting his team ready. He completely outcoached Mike McCarthy.
14) The Broncos proved that they are in the discussion of the elite teams in the NFL after last night's game. It was nice to see them wearing the blue jersey and white pants combination that they wore when they defeated the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. It was fitting on this night that they played as well as they did. It was a signature win for this team this year, and it gets them to 7-0. The last time Denver started 7-0 was in 1998 when they won their second consecutive Super Bowl. The Broncos head to Indy next week to try and get revenge on the Colts from last year's disappointing playoff defeat. Peyton Manning also gets a chance to go back to Indy one more time and get a win against his former team.
1) This game was what we wanted to see out of this offense all year long. Manning came out firing on all cylinders. There was a lot of play-action, bootlegs, and long-range passes to Demaryius Thomas to get the drive going. The Broncos scored their first touchdown in the first quarter all year, on a 1 yard touchdown run by Ronnie Hillman. That drive really set the tone for the game.
2) Give the defense credit for stepping up their game. They got after Rodgers right from the get go, and the secondary was awesome. Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby blanketed the receivers and really Rodgers had nowhere to go with the ball. Also, Demarcus Ware, Von Miller, and Shaq Barrett continued to get after Rodgers and force early throws. They pressured him and harassed him all night long.
3) The key to the second drive was when Manning hit Thomas deep down the sideline for a 47 yard gain to the Green Bay five yard line. It was one of few times Manning hit a pretty deep ball all year long. It was like a throwback to 2013. The play set up a Hillman 15 yard touchdown run and Denver expanded their lead to 14-0.
4) The Broncos offense continued to take control of the game, and on the next drive they started getting the tight ends going with some big throws to Owen Daniels and Virgil Green. Also, C.J. Anderson started to look like the player he was last year, and he burst off a 19 yard run on a crucial 3rd and 2 to set up a field goal and a commanding 17-0 lead.
5) You knew the Packers were going to get back into the game at some point, but the only way they managed to get back in this game was the aid of a pretty shaky roughing the passer call on David Bruton to extend a drive after a third down incompletion. The Pack took advantage of that call and a Eddy Lacy touchdown run made it 17-7 before the half.
6) By the way, how many cheap calls did the refs make on the Broncos? They gave the Packers a few first downs on some really shady holding calls in the secondary. I hate when the refs get themselves too involved in the game.
7) The Broncos gave up a field goal to start the third quarter and all of a sudden it was a 17-10 game, but you knew the Broncos were going to get going again on offense in the second half. After Manning carved up the Packers secondary again with big passes to Thomas and Andre Caldwell, C.J. Anderson capped off the drive with a great 28 yard run on a 3rd and 2 to give Denver a 24-10 lead. It was the perfect answer, and it seemed to take the life out of the Packers.
8) From there, the Broncos defense shut the door on Rodgers and the Packers. A big sack by Antonio Smith ended one drive, and then a swarming attack led by Ware caused a fumble by Rodgers and a safety to make it 26-10 in the 4th quarter.
9) A late field goal made it 29-10, and the Broncos put the finishing touches on one of the more impressive victories the Broncos have had in recent years. I was happy about the victory on a night that they inducted Pat Bowlen into the Ring of Fame. I should have seen this Broncos performance coming because it was a big Sunday night game, and the induction of their owner into the Ring of Fame made this a game the perfect time for this team to break out and play a complete game from start to finish. Kudos to the Broncos for stepping up to the moment.
10) The Broncos defense answered the bell and completely shut down Aaron Rodgers and this offense. The Broncos and Wade Phillips gave Rodgers a tremendous amount of different looks and pressures and they kept him off balance and off his spot all night. They shut down anything on the perimeter with the speed of their linebacking corps. The secondary was lights out as we mentioned before, and it certainly proved that this Broncos defense is not just hype.
11) Peyton Manning was awesome last night, and he was able to quiet down some of his critics. He was 21-29 for 340 yards. He didn't throw a touchdown and he threw one meaningless interception late in the game, but he was sensational all night long. He hit deep balls to Demaryius Thomas, and he constantly cut the Packers defense to shreads down the middle with deep and intermediate throws to DT and the tight ends. He spread the ball around, and he looked comfortable and confident in what the game plan was trying to do. He even did a nice job in the play action game, and he even booted a little bit and it looked good. Don't sleep on Manning. He is not out of the woods yet, but I think last night proved that he isn't done just yet. I'm happy for Manning, and if he continues to roll like this, then look out.
12) The running game finally got going in the fashion that we all expected it to look like before the season started. C.J. Anderson rushed 14 times for 101 yards and 1 touchdown, and Ronnie Hillman ran 19 times for 60 yards and two touchdowns. If this can continue to get better each week, then the Broncos offense will really start to click and get going. The best part about it was Hillman and Anderson really showed their ability last night. Both hit the hole hard and ran with confidence. You felt like they were going to get a first down or a big run everytime they got the ball.
13) Give Gary Kubiak credit for last night's performance. The team looked rested and ready in all three phases of the game, and he gets credit for getting his team prepared for a game of this magnitude. The offensive game plan was really solid and he called a brilliant game. The defense continued to wreak havoc and their game plan was solid as well. That was a big game and Kubiak did a really great job getting his team ready. He completely outcoached Mike McCarthy.
14) The Broncos proved that they are in the discussion of the elite teams in the NFL after last night's game. It was nice to see them wearing the blue jersey and white pants combination that they wore when they defeated the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. It was fitting on this night that they played as well as they did. It was a signature win for this team this year, and it gets them to 7-0. The last time Denver started 7-0 was in 1998 when they won their second consecutive Super Bowl. The Broncos head to Indy next week to try and get revenge on the Colts from last year's disappointing playoff defeat. Peyton Manning also gets a chance to go back to Indy one more time and get a win against his former team.
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Broncos-Packers Preview and Week 8 Picks
Sunday Night Football features the 6-0 Broncos hosting the 6-0 Packers. It is a rare occurrence that two 6-0 teams will meet in primetime. The NFL and NBC are salivating at the thought of this game, and the fact that this could be the last time we see Aaron Rodgers going head-to-head to Peyton Manning, and this game has all the star power that you need. The Broncos will also be inducting Pat Bowlen into the Ring of Fame. I actually believe that the induction of Bowlen and the return of many former players and coaches from the past Bronco teams will be a positive for the Denver. It will give the Broncos a homecoming type of feel for this game, and I think they can use that emotion. There are so many different angles to take, but there is one that I don't think many people will be thinking about. Through 6 weeks, this Broncos team reminds me of the 2006 team. That year, the Broncos defense was the story of the early part of the season, as the offense struggled under Jake Plummer to catch up. The Broncos started out 5-1 that year, and they won games with the scores of 9-6, 17-7 (twice), and 13-3 (twice.) The defense was the tops in the NFL through the first six weeks, but Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts game to Denver in Week 7. That day, Manning cut up the Broncos defense en route to a 34-31 victory. The invincibility of the Broncos defense was over, and that unit was never the same the rest of the year as the Broncos finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. This year, the Broncos are 6-0 with a similar situation: Dominating defense, sputtering offense, and close victories with scores like 19-13, 16-10, and 23-20. The Broncos now face a stiff challenge in the Packers high-powered offense with the best player in the league in Aaron Rodgers coming to town. Ironically, the man who broke the Broncos backs that day in 2006 is now starting at QB for Denver, and Peyton Manning is trying to turn the corner on this season and put in a vintage Manning-like performance. It is the game of the year, and it will be a very telling game for both teams. One team will be 7-0 and the other will be only 6-1, but this season will only be a success for these two teams if they are in Santa Clara in February in Super Bowl 50. This game is one of those signature moments on that journey to the Lombardi Trophy. Enjoy it because it will be a fun one to watch.
Green Bay (-3) over DENVER
Final Score: Packers 31 Broncos-20
Now, onto the games for Week 8....
Last Week's Record: 9-4-1
Overall Record: 50-53-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Kansas City (-3) over Detroit (In London): Talk about another shit game that the NFL sends to London. I guess you would have to take the Chiefs in this spot, but I just really have a tough time getting a handle on these London games.
Minnesota (+2) over CHICAGO: Why are the Bears favored here over the Vikings? It feels like this game should be the other way around according to the line.
ATLANTA (-6) over Tampa Bay: Why are so many people getting on the Falcons for only squeaking by the Titans last week in Tennessee 10-7? The Falcons are a good team, and every week in the NFL can be a dogfight. Now, the Falcons return home to take on the Bucs, who blew a 24 point lead at Washington last week. I'll take the Falcons to take care of business at home this week.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants: The Saints won a huge game last week on the road over Indy to get themselves back into the wildcard race in the NFC at 3-4. The Giants come into this game in first place of the NFC East with a 4-3 record. This is a very interesting game. I have to think the Saints will find a way to win this game at home to get to 4-4.
ST.LOUIS (-7) over San Francisco: The Niners have the worst PPG in the NFL at 14. They take that offensive group and head to St. Louis to take on the Rams and their defense. Advantage Rams in that category.
CLEVELAND (+7) over Arizona: The Cardinals will win this game outright, but they will struggle to do so. I feel like the Cards are the type of team that will play really well against the good teams but play down to the level of the bad teams. This feels like a 23-20 win for Arizona, and the Browns will make them earn it.
PITTSBURGH (-1) over Cincy: The best game of the early games is in Pittsburgh. The 4-3 Steelers get their crack at the 6-0 Bengals. The Bengals are bound to lose, and this could be the week. Pittsburgh is getting Ben Roethlisberger back this week, and I think the Steelers hand Cincy their first loss of the season.
BALTIMORE (-3) over San Diego: I don't know what to make of this game. The Ravens come in at 1-6 and the Chargers enter the game at 2-5. Both teams were considered playoff contenders in the preseason, but things haven't exactly played out that way. I guess the Ravens will get their second win of the year, but I don't feel very confident about this pick. Stay away from this game if you are a gambler.
Tennessee (+4) over HOUSTON: The Texans got absolutely walloped by the Dolphins last week. They really are a bad team. Anyone want to take Bill O'Brien back in the college ranks? Now, the 1-5 Titans come in. Both teams are having bad seasons, but I'll take the Titans to keep it close even though Marcus Mariota is out and Zach Mettenberger is starting.
New York Jets (-3) over OAKLAND: Interesting late game on CBS. The Raiders come in at 3-3 on the heels of a shellacking of the Chargers in San Diego. The Jets are 4-2 after losing a very hard fought game at New England last week. This should be a fun game to watch between two old AFL rivals. A lot of people are going to be picking the Raiders as home underdogs, but I just think about how much Denver's defense bottled up Derek Carr and Amari Cooper a few weeks ago, and there is no reason why the Jets defense won't be able to do the same.
Seattle (-6) over DALLAS: Another week and another marquee game featuring the Cowboys and their backup QB. At 2-4 they are desperate for a win and will try to stay afloat until Tony Romo comes back. It will be tough for Matt Cassel to try and get the job done against the hungry 3-4 Seahawks in this spot. Take Seattle giving the points on the road.
Indy (+7) over CAROLINA: I have a feeling that this is the game that Andrew Luck puts in a vintage Andrew Luck game. I know everyone is going to pick the 6-0 Panthers at home. The Colts have not looked good at all this year and this Panthers defense could cause them problems, but I think the Colts and Luck could at least keep it closer than many predict.
Green Bay (-3) over DENVER
Final Score: Packers 31 Broncos-20
Now, onto the games for Week 8....
Last Week's Record: 9-4-1
Overall Record: 50-53-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Kansas City (-3) over Detroit (In London): Talk about another shit game that the NFL sends to London. I guess you would have to take the Chiefs in this spot, but I just really have a tough time getting a handle on these London games.
Minnesota (+2) over CHICAGO: Why are the Bears favored here over the Vikings? It feels like this game should be the other way around according to the line.
ATLANTA (-6) over Tampa Bay: Why are so many people getting on the Falcons for only squeaking by the Titans last week in Tennessee 10-7? The Falcons are a good team, and every week in the NFL can be a dogfight. Now, the Falcons return home to take on the Bucs, who blew a 24 point lead at Washington last week. I'll take the Falcons to take care of business at home this week.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants: The Saints won a huge game last week on the road over Indy to get themselves back into the wildcard race in the NFC at 3-4. The Giants come into this game in first place of the NFC East with a 4-3 record. This is a very interesting game. I have to think the Saints will find a way to win this game at home to get to 4-4.
ST.LOUIS (-7) over San Francisco: The Niners have the worst PPG in the NFL at 14. They take that offensive group and head to St. Louis to take on the Rams and their defense. Advantage Rams in that category.
CLEVELAND (+7) over Arizona: The Cardinals will win this game outright, but they will struggle to do so. I feel like the Cards are the type of team that will play really well against the good teams but play down to the level of the bad teams. This feels like a 23-20 win for Arizona, and the Browns will make them earn it.
PITTSBURGH (-1) over Cincy: The best game of the early games is in Pittsburgh. The 4-3 Steelers get their crack at the 6-0 Bengals. The Bengals are bound to lose, and this could be the week. Pittsburgh is getting Ben Roethlisberger back this week, and I think the Steelers hand Cincy their first loss of the season.
BALTIMORE (-3) over San Diego: I don't know what to make of this game. The Ravens come in at 1-6 and the Chargers enter the game at 2-5. Both teams were considered playoff contenders in the preseason, but things haven't exactly played out that way. I guess the Ravens will get their second win of the year, but I don't feel very confident about this pick. Stay away from this game if you are a gambler.
Tennessee (+4) over HOUSTON: The Texans got absolutely walloped by the Dolphins last week. They really are a bad team. Anyone want to take Bill O'Brien back in the college ranks? Now, the 1-5 Titans come in. Both teams are having bad seasons, but I'll take the Titans to keep it close even though Marcus Mariota is out and Zach Mettenberger is starting.
New York Jets (-3) over OAKLAND: Interesting late game on CBS. The Raiders come in at 3-3 on the heels of a shellacking of the Chargers in San Diego. The Jets are 4-2 after losing a very hard fought game at New England last week. This should be a fun game to watch between two old AFL rivals. A lot of people are going to be picking the Raiders as home underdogs, but I just think about how much Denver's defense bottled up Derek Carr and Amari Cooper a few weeks ago, and there is no reason why the Jets defense won't be able to do the same.
Seattle (-6) over DALLAS: Another week and another marquee game featuring the Cowboys and their backup QB. At 2-4 they are desperate for a win and will try to stay afloat until Tony Romo comes back. It will be tough for Matt Cassel to try and get the job done against the hungry 3-4 Seahawks in this spot. Take Seattle giving the points on the road.
Indy (+7) over CAROLINA: I have a feeling that this is the game that Andrew Luck puts in a vintage Andrew Luck game. I know everyone is going to pick the 6-0 Panthers at home. The Colts have not looked good at all this year and this Panthers defense could cause them problems, but I think the Colts and Luck could at least keep it closer than many predict.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Pats-Dolphins Week 8 TNF Pick
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Miami: At 3-3, the Dolphins have won two in a row under interim head coach Dan Campbell. Maybe Joe Philbin was the problem, but don't forget the Fish trampled the Titans and the Texans in back-to-back weeks. That isn't exactly the cream of the crop of the NFL. Now, they get to go to Foxboro for a big AFC East showdown with the 6-0 Patriots. The Pats are only laying 7 points at home to the Dolphins, and Bill Belichick gets to go heads up with Campbell on a short week. I'll take the Pats to cover the number and to 7-0.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Broncos at the Bye and Week 7 Picks!
The Broncos are 6-0 heading into the bye week, and everyone associated with the NFL is completely down on this team. I've never seen such pessimism for a team that is 6-0. I know the way their defense has been scoring for them will not be sustainable all year, but you have to give credit where credit is due. The Broncos defense is really good, their offense is a work in progress, and they are about to find out a lot about them in November when the face the Packers, Colts, and Patriots all in that month. Here is what I think about the Broncos as they head into the bye:
1) Their defense is so good. It has scored 4 defensive touchdowns already this year. They have only given up an average of only 13.5 points per game. That is pretty good to stay the least. They also lead the league in sacks. The only downside is that they have gone up against QBs like Josh McCown, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith. They will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady next month.
2) Their offense is a real work in progress. In fact, it really sucks right now. They are only averaging 18.5 points a game. The offensive MVP of the first six games has been kicker Brandon McManus. Peyton Manning has 7 TDs and 10 interceptions and a QB rating of 72.5 Demaryius Thomas has 48 receptions and 527 yards, but only 1 touchdown. Emmanuel Sanders has 38 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the Broncos? Owen Daniels with only 14 receptions. Their running game is even worse. Ronnie Hillman leads the team with 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, while C.J. Anderson is a real disappointment with only 180 yards and no touchdowns. Their lack of a third receiving threat is really killing them. They have no options outside of Sanders and DT. Their offensive line is still inconsistent and constantly banged up and shuffled around already, and I don't see them turning around the running game overnight. It will be interesting to see how much this offense can get going the rest of the way.
3) Peyton Manning is getting a lot of grief and he hasn't played well, but it is not his arm strength. That is not the problem. It is Manning getting comfortable with the new offense and scheme. He has thrown interceptions into coverage a lot. How does that happen to the smartest QB of all time? I think most of Manning's struggles come from the new offensive system. Also, I don't think the running game will work as well out of the pistol then it would with him under center, but he feels more at home in the shotgun, so the Broncos are trying to keep him at ease. The lack of running game, no third receiving threat, and a shaky line aren't helping Manning either. Maybe he turns it around the rest of the way, and I would love to see him do it, but I just don't know if he has it in him at this juncture.
4) The Broncos are 6-0 and have beaten the 1-5 Ravens, 1-5 Chiefs, 1-5 Lions, 3-3 Vikings, 2-3 Raiders, and 2-4 Browns. All of those games were close too. The rest of the schedule includes the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Bengals, and Steelers. We will find out just how much of a contender the Broncos are over the next 10 weeks. With that said, they have a comfortable lead in the AFC West over the 2-3 Raiders and the 2-4 Chargers. Even if they go 5-5 over the next 10 games, they will still end up 11-5 and another AFC West crown. Also, they have already played 4 road games in their first six. They still get the Packers, Pats, and Bengals at home this year, and they finish with 3 out of their last 4 at home. It is amazing because here they are at 6-0 and there are still so many more questions that need to be answered after they come back from the bye and take on the Packers on November 1st.
Last Week's Record: 10-4
Overall Record: 41-49-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Buffalo (In London): The Bills are without Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins. Plus, they have to travel all the way to London to play the Jags. I sense a game where Buffalo lacks a little motivation, thus keeping it closer than it normally would be.
ST.LOUIS (-4) over Cleveland: The Rams have a chance to start to make a move in the NFC and grab that last wild card spot. They should be able to unleash their defensive prowess on Josh McCown and the Browns this week.
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Pittsburgh: Landry Jones is starting for Pittsburgh. You are giving three points with Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead if you back the Steelers this week. I'll take the Chiefs to get only their second win of the year this week.
Houston (+5) over MIAMI: How about the Dan Campbell era? In his first game as interim head coach, the Dolphins showed their dislike for prior coach Joe Philbin by coming out and storming the Titans in route to a 38-10. I just can't put my trust in the Dolphins just yet. I think they win this game, but I think the Texans make them earn it.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The game of the day in the AFC is in Foxboro between these two rivals. I like the Jets defense to give the Pats enough problems to stay in the game, and I think the Jets offense can move the ball on the Pats. If you are a Jets fan, you just worry about Ryan Fitzpatrick having his first implosion of the year. It's coming, but you hope it isn't this week.
Minnesota (-2) over DETROIT: The Vikings are another team that can start to make their move. This is a game that they have to win in order to do that. The Lions are 1-5, but they won last week, so now the Vikings have to go in there and take care of business.
Atlanta (-4) over TENNESSEE: The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota makes this an easy pick for me. I would expect a really solid performance by the Falcons on the road this week.
Tampa Bay (+4) over WASHINGTON: Can we finally put to bed the "Kirk Cousins is a young stud" idea? Maybe it is time for Jay Gruden to admit that. I'll take Lovie Smith and the Bucs on the road in this spot.
INDY (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are at 2-4, and basically their season is on life support starting this week. A win here gets the back into the mix of things in the Wild Card picture. A loss and they are facing a steep hill to climb. At 3-3, the Colts are still in control of the putrid AFC South. Look for them to get back on track here and Andrew Luck slowly heals from his shoulder injury.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Oakland: It seems like the Chargers would be better than their 2-4 record would indicate. This is a big game for them. The Raiders come off a bye at 2-3, so is a pretty important game in the AFC West. I have to think that the Chargers will be able to hold off their feisty rivals at home.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: Somewhere FOX executives are cursing over the fact that this game features a 3-3 Giants team going up against a 2-3 Cowboys team without the injured Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I don't think that is what they had in mind when they were circling this game on their schedule back in the spring. In any event, here we are with a game that actually means a lot to the NFC East picture. The Giants will find a way to win this game and get to 4-3 because you can't really trust Matt Cassel on the road in this spot.
CAROLINA (-3) over Philly:
Baltimore (+8) over ARIZONA:
1) Their defense is so good. It has scored 4 defensive touchdowns already this year. They have only given up an average of only 13.5 points per game. That is pretty good to stay the least. They also lead the league in sacks. The only downside is that they have gone up against QBs like Josh McCown, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith. They will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady next month.
2) Their offense is a real work in progress. In fact, it really sucks right now. They are only averaging 18.5 points a game. The offensive MVP of the first six games has been kicker Brandon McManus. Peyton Manning has 7 TDs and 10 interceptions and a QB rating of 72.5 Demaryius Thomas has 48 receptions and 527 yards, but only 1 touchdown. Emmanuel Sanders has 38 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the Broncos? Owen Daniels with only 14 receptions. Their running game is even worse. Ronnie Hillman leads the team with 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, while C.J. Anderson is a real disappointment with only 180 yards and no touchdowns. Their lack of a third receiving threat is really killing them. They have no options outside of Sanders and DT. Their offensive line is still inconsistent and constantly banged up and shuffled around already, and I don't see them turning around the running game overnight. It will be interesting to see how much this offense can get going the rest of the way.
3) Peyton Manning is getting a lot of grief and he hasn't played well, but it is not his arm strength. That is not the problem. It is Manning getting comfortable with the new offense and scheme. He has thrown interceptions into coverage a lot. How does that happen to the smartest QB of all time? I think most of Manning's struggles come from the new offensive system. Also, I don't think the running game will work as well out of the pistol then it would with him under center, but he feels more at home in the shotgun, so the Broncos are trying to keep him at ease. The lack of running game, no third receiving threat, and a shaky line aren't helping Manning either. Maybe he turns it around the rest of the way, and I would love to see him do it, but I just don't know if he has it in him at this juncture.
4) The Broncos are 6-0 and have beaten the 1-5 Ravens, 1-5 Chiefs, 1-5 Lions, 3-3 Vikings, 2-3 Raiders, and 2-4 Browns. All of those games were close too. The rest of the schedule includes the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Bengals, and Steelers. We will find out just how much of a contender the Broncos are over the next 10 weeks. With that said, they have a comfortable lead in the AFC West over the 2-3 Raiders and the 2-4 Chargers. Even if they go 5-5 over the next 10 games, they will still end up 11-5 and another AFC West crown. Also, they have already played 4 road games in their first six. They still get the Packers, Pats, and Bengals at home this year, and they finish with 3 out of their last 4 at home. It is amazing because here they are at 6-0 and there are still so many more questions that need to be answered after they come back from the bye and take on the Packers on November 1st.
Last Week's Record: 10-4
Overall Record: 41-49-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Buffalo (In London): The Bills are without Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins. Plus, they have to travel all the way to London to play the Jags. I sense a game where Buffalo lacks a little motivation, thus keeping it closer than it normally would be.
ST.LOUIS (-4) over Cleveland: The Rams have a chance to start to make a move in the NFC and grab that last wild card spot. They should be able to unleash their defensive prowess on Josh McCown and the Browns this week.
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Pittsburgh: Landry Jones is starting for Pittsburgh. You are giving three points with Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead if you back the Steelers this week. I'll take the Chiefs to get only their second win of the year this week.
Houston (+5) over MIAMI: How about the Dan Campbell era? In his first game as interim head coach, the Dolphins showed their dislike for prior coach Joe Philbin by coming out and storming the Titans in route to a 38-10. I just can't put my trust in the Dolphins just yet. I think they win this game, but I think the Texans make them earn it.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The game of the day in the AFC is in Foxboro between these two rivals. I like the Jets defense to give the Pats enough problems to stay in the game, and I think the Jets offense can move the ball on the Pats. If you are a Jets fan, you just worry about Ryan Fitzpatrick having his first implosion of the year. It's coming, but you hope it isn't this week.
Minnesota (-2) over DETROIT: The Vikings are another team that can start to make their move. This is a game that they have to win in order to do that. The Lions are 1-5, but they won last week, so now the Vikings have to go in there and take care of business.
Atlanta (-4) over TENNESSEE: The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota makes this an easy pick for me. I would expect a really solid performance by the Falcons on the road this week.
Tampa Bay (+4) over WASHINGTON: Can we finally put to bed the "Kirk Cousins is a young stud" idea? Maybe it is time for Jay Gruden to admit that. I'll take Lovie Smith and the Bucs on the road in this spot.
INDY (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are at 2-4, and basically their season is on life support starting this week. A win here gets the back into the mix of things in the Wild Card picture. A loss and they are facing a steep hill to climb. At 3-3, the Colts are still in control of the putrid AFC South. Look for them to get back on track here and Andrew Luck slowly heals from his shoulder injury.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Oakland: It seems like the Chargers would be better than their 2-4 record would indicate. This is a big game for them. The Raiders come off a bye at 2-3, so is a pretty important game in the AFC West. I have to think that the Chargers will be able to hold off their feisty rivals at home.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: Somewhere FOX executives are cursing over the fact that this game features a 3-3 Giants team going up against a 2-3 Cowboys team without the injured Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I don't think that is what they had in mind when they were circling this game on their schedule back in the spring. In any event, here we are with a game that actually means a lot to the NFC East picture. The Giants will find a way to win this game and get to 4-3 because you can't really trust Matt Cassel on the road in this spot.
CAROLINA (-3) over Philly:
Baltimore (+8) over ARIZONA:
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Week 7 TNF Pick!
Seattle (-5) over SAN FRANCISCO: There is no way the Seahawks are going 2-5 right? How the hell are they 2-4 and the 49ers have the same record? I have to take the Seahawks here because I just can't see them falling to 2-5. They are the better team, and I think they will take out their frustration on their division rival this Thursday.
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