Broncos at the Bye and Week 7 Picks!

The Broncos are 6-0 heading into the bye week, and everyone associated with the NFL is completely down on this team. I've never seen such pessimism for a team that is 6-0. I know the way their defense has been scoring for them will not be sustainable all year, but you have to give credit where credit is due. The Broncos defense is really good, their offense is a work in progress, and they are about to find out a lot about them in November when the face the Packers, Colts, and Patriots all in that month. Here is what I think about the Broncos as they head into the bye:

1) Their defense is so good. It has scored 4 defensive touchdowns already this year. They have only given up an average of only 13.5 points per game. That is pretty good to stay the least. They also lead the league in sacks. The only downside is that they have gone up against QBs like Josh McCown, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith. They will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady next month.

2) Their offense is a real work in progress. In fact, it really sucks right now. They are only averaging 18.5 points a game. The offensive MVP of the first six games has been kicker Brandon McManus. Peyton Manning has 7 TDs and 10 interceptions and a QB rating of 72.5 Demaryius Thomas has 48 receptions and 527 yards, but only 1 touchdown. Emmanuel Sanders has 38 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the Broncos? Owen Daniels with only 14 receptions. Their running game is even worse. Ronnie Hillman leads the team with 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, while C.J. Anderson is a real disappointment with only 180 yards and no touchdowns. Their lack of a third receiving threat is really killing them. They have no options outside of Sanders and DT. Their offensive line is still inconsistent and constantly banged up and shuffled around already, and I don't see them turning around the running game overnight. It will be interesting to see how much this offense can get going the rest of the way.

3) Peyton Manning is getting a lot of grief and he hasn't played well, but it is not his arm strength. That is not the problem. It is Manning getting comfortable with the new offense and scheme. He has thrown interceptions into coverage a lot. How does that happen to the smartest QB of all time? I think most of Manning's struggles come from the new offensive system. Also, I don't think the running game will work as well out of the pistol then it would with him under center, but he feels more at home in the shotgun, so the Broncos are trying to keep him at ease. The lack of running game, no third receiving threat, and a shaky line aren't helping Manning either. Maybe he turns it around the rest of the way, and I would love to see him do it, but I just don't know if he has it in him at this juncture.

4) The Broncos are 6-0 and have beaten the 1-5 Ravens, 1-5 Chiefs, 1-5 Lions, 3-3 Vikings, 2-3 Raiders, and 2-4 Browns. All of those games were close too. The rest of the schedule includes the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Bengals, and Steelers. We will find out just how much of a contender the Broncos are over the next 10 weeks. With that said, they have a comfortable lead in the AFC West over the 2-3 Raiders and the 2-4 Chargers. Even if they go 5-5 over the next 10 games, they will still end up 11-5 and another AFC West crown. Also, they have already played 4 road games in their first six. They still get the Packers, Pats, and Bengals at home this year, and they finish with 3 out of their last 4 at home. It is amazing because here they are at 6-0 and there are still so many more questions that need to be answered after they come back from the bye and take on the Packers on November 1st.

Last Week's Record: 10-4
Overall Record: 41-49-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Buffalo (In London): The Bills are without Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins. Plus, they have to travel all the way to London to play the Jags. I sense a game where Buffalo lacks a little motivation, thus keeping it closer than it normally would be.

ST.LOUIS (-4) over Cleveland: The Rams have a chance to start to make a move in the NFC and grab that last wild card spot. They should be able to unleash their defensive prowess on Josh McCown and the Browns this week.

KANSAS CITY (+3) over Pittsburgh: Landry Jones is starting for Pittsburgh. You are giving three points with Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead if you back the Steelers this week. I'll take the Chiefs to get only their second win of the year this week.

Houston (+5) over MIAMI: How about the Dan Campbell era? In his first game as interim head coach, the Dolphins showed their dislike for prior coach Joe Philbin by coming out and storming the Titans in route to a 38-10. I just can't put my trust in the Dolphins just yet. I think they win this game, but I think the Texans make them earn it.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The game of the day in the AFC is in Foxboro between these two rivals. I like the Jets defense to give the Pats enough problems to stay in the game, and I think the Jets offense can move the ball on the Pats. If you are a Jets fan, you just worry about Ryan Fitzpatrick having his first implosion of the year. It's coming, but you hope it isn't this week.

Minnesota (-2) over DETROIT: The Vikings are another team that can start to make their move. This is a game that they have to win in order to do that. The Lions are 1-5, but they won last week, so now the Vikings have to go in there and take care of business.

Atlanta (-4) over TENNESSEE: The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota makes this an easy pick for me. I would expect a really solid performance by the Falcons on the road this week.

Tampa Bay (+4) over WASHINGTON: Can we finally put to bed the "Kirk Cousins is a young stud" idea? Maybe it is time for Jay Gruden to admit that. I'll take Lovie Smith and the Bucs on the road in this spot.

INDY (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are at 2-4, and basically their season is on life support starting this week. A win here gets the back into the mix of things in the Wild Card picture. A loss and they are facing a steep hill to climb. At 3-3, the Colts are still in control of the putrid AFC South. Look for them to get back on track here and Andrew Luck slowly heals from his shoulder injury.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Oakland: It seems like the Chargers would be better than their 2-4 record would indicate. This is a big game for them. The Raiders come off a bye at 2-3, so is a pretty important game in the AFC West. I have to think that the Chargers will be able to hold off their feisty rivals at home.

NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: Somewhere FOX executives are cursing over the fact that this game features a 3-3 Giants team going up against a 2-3 Cowboys team without the injured Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I don't think that is what they had in mind when they were circling this game on their schedule back in the spring. In any event, here we are with a game that actually means a lot to the NFC East picture. The Giants will find a way to win this game and get to 4-3 because you can't really trust Matt Cassel on the road in this spot.

CAROLINA (-3) over Philly:

Baltimore (+8) over ARIZONA: