NFL Week 8 Picks!

With about five minutes left in the game, the Broncos were down 15-0 to the winless Dolphins. Tim Tebow was having an awful game at quarterback. He was 4-14 passing going into the fourth quarter and was sacked numerous times. When he did have time, he often missed receivers by about ten miles. I was thinking to myself that this is bad- really, really bad. Tebow was putting up JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf type numbers. His performance was going to get him ripped the next day, and every single one of his critics were going to pronounce that Tebow can't make it in the NFL. I really felt bad for him. Also, I couldn't help but think that Tebow might not even finish the season as a starter for the Broncos. This game was so bad, that I wouldn't have been surprised if Denver yanked him the next week and went back to Kyle Orton or turned it over to Brady Quinn. Just as those thoughts came into my head, Tebow put on a show and led the Broncos to a miracle win 18-15 in overtime. Tebow decided to connect on 9 of his last 13 passes and threw two touchdowns, and he ran in the two point conversion to tie it. It was like he transformed into some modern, elite quarterback in the span of minutes. The Broncos became the first team ever since the merger to win a game after trailing by at least 15 points with three minutes left. Tebow was sensational, and his pass to Daniel Fells to get the Broncos down inside the five down 15-7 was tremendous. After a touchdown to Fells on throwback screen, Tebow scamperered into the end zone on a designed QB run to tie it at 15. After the teams traded punts, D.J. Williams sacked Matt Moore and stripped him of the ball. Williams recovered and Matt Prater nailed a 52 yard field goal to give the Broncos the improbable win and get their record to 2-4. As for Tebow, he obviously has to improve the next few weeks to give himself a chance to remain the Broncos starter for this season and 2012. Even though there were some rough patches, Tebow get fighting and when the things looked bleak, he made the plays he needed to in order to help the Broncos win the game. I'll take that everytime. Tebow Time is in full effect. Onto the Week 8 Quick Picks.......

Last Week's Record: 4-8-1

Overall Record: 46-50-7

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

TENNESSEE (-8) over Indy

Jacksonville (+9) over HOUSTON:

Minnesota (+3) over CAROLINA:

New Orleans (-12) over ST. LOUIS:

BALTIMORE (-10) over Arizona:

NY GIANTS (-9) over Miami:

Washington (+6) over BUFFALO (In Toronto):

PITTSBURGH (+3) over New England:

Cleveland (+8) over SAN FRANCISCO:

SEATTLE (+3) over Cincy:

PHILLY (-3) over Dallas:

San Diego (-4) over KANSAS CITY:

Detroit (-4) over DENVER:

NFL Week 7 Picks!

The big news in the NFL this week was the trade of Carson Palmer from Cincy to Oakland. The Raiders lost Jason Campbell with a broken collarbone in Sunday's loss to the Browns, so the Raiders had to make a decision at QB. Well, the Raiders went all in and gave up a 1st round pick in 2012 and a 2nd round pick in 2013 for Palmer. The 2013 2nd round pick could become a 1st round pick if the Raiders make the AFC Championship Game. The Raiders, after Al Davis' death, made a statement. They are going for it this year, and clearly they felt that Palmer was an essential piece going forward. I was always a Carson Palmer fan, but watching him play the last few years, you have to wonder that the Raiders might have made a deal that doesn't make any sense. The other interesting part is that it is a huge trade that involves a quarterback at the trade deadline in October. This trade didn't go down in July or August. This trade went down after the Raiders played six games. This will certainly be a fascinating storyline to watch, and it will be very interesting to see if Palmer pans out in Oakland or this could be a franchise killer for Hue Jackson and company. Onto the picks for Week 7........

Last Week's Record: 8-4-1

Overall Record: 42-42-6

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tampa Bay (+1) over Chicago (In London): The London game is actually a decent one this year. The Bucs at 4-2 head over the pond to take on the 3-3 Bears. This is definitely a huge NFC matchup. Usually, the London game is a stinker, but this one could actually be a really good game. I'll take the Bucs in a mild upset in London.

CAROLINA (-2) over Washington: This is a statement game for the Redskins. If the Skins want to prove that they are a legitimate playoff contender. Mike Shanahan makes a switch at QB this week, and he goes with John Beck, but it looks pretty bleak. The Panthers are 1-5, but they have played well every week, and Cam Newton gives them a chance in every game. The Panthers are due for another win and they get it this week.

NY JETS(+2) over San Diego: The Jets are 3-3, but they wins have come over the Cowboys in a fluke in Week 1, the Jags with Josh McCown, who are now 1-5, and the Dolphins, who are 0-5. Then, Rex Ryan decides to mouth off on the Chargers. The Jets are all bluster and no production. I love how the Jets are preaching "Ground and Pound," but their offense is simply not constructed that way anymore. As for the Chargers, they are 4-1, but look at who they have beat: 1-5 Minnesota, 2-3 Kansas City, 0-5 Miami, and 1-4 Denver. San Diego hasn't played their best game yet. Although they are due for a big game from Philip Rivers, I'm going to go with the Jets at home this week. This is my "Hunch Game" of the week for Week 7. Call it Jets-24 Chargers-21.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Seattle: The Browns are not playing the sleeper role like I thought they would this year. Simply put, the Browns aren't really good. The Browns should be able to do enough to win this game over Seattle. The Seahawks had a spirited win two weeks ago against the Giants. At 2-3, the Seahawks are playing better than I thought they would. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Seahawks pull this one out, but look for the Browns to win this game.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Houston: The Texans finds themselves at 3-3 and all banged up without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. You get the feeling that the Texans could be in for some bumpy roads ahead without these star players. The Titans are the sneaky good team this year, and basically this game is the first matchup in the AFC South Championship Series. I'll take the Titans at home, and Mike Munchak's crew gets an early leg up in the divisional title race.

DETROIT (-3) over Atlanta: The Falcons played well and got to 3-3 after a nice win over the Panthers last week. The Lions lost a really tough game to the 49ers at home. After Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz almost came to blows last week at the handshake, the Lions have to regroup at 5-1. The Lions are still dangerous, but you have to wonder a little about them. Remember, they came back from two huge holes to beat the Cowboys and the Vikings. Are the Lions as good as we thought they were? I think this week they answer that question.

Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND: How in the world can I take Carson Palmer after about four days of practice? The Chiefs aren't very good at 2-3, but I have to wait and see how this whole thing is going to work for Palmer and the Raiders. Until then, I have to go with the Chiefs on the road. Weird game and weird scenario in Oakland this week.

ARIZONA (+4) over Pittsburgh: The Steelers are at 4-2, but nothing about them how looked right except their big win over the Titans two weeks ago. Last week, they jumped out on the Jags, but held on for a 17-14 win. A win is a win in the NFL, and the Steelers will be in the mix come playoff time in the AFC, but they seem like a week-to-week type of team. I had the Cards winning the NFC West this year, and so far Kevin Kolb has let me down. The Cards are feisty at home, and look for the upset in Desert this Sunday.

St. Louis (+12) over DALLAS: I just can't figure out big spreads. Sam Bradford is questionable this week, and that means that A.J. Feeley is on deck. The Cowboys are 2-3, but I feel like they are the most dangerous team in the NFC East. The Cowboys get it going this week, but fail to cover the spread.

Green Bay (-9) over MINNESOTA: NFL Films and Versus have this great new show called "Turning Point." It is a great show that really details the turning points in various NFL games from the previous weekend. The NFL should take it a step further, in the offseason perhaps, and really examine the turning points of players careers and franchises. The first episode could be what happened when Brett Favre threw that fateful interception late in the fourth quarter of the 2009 NFC Championship against New Orleans. From that point to this point, the Vikings have not really recovered. Now, they turn the page on the Donovan McNabb Era and start the Christian Ponder Era. The Packers come to town this week, and this should get ugly early. The Packers look like they are a well-oiled machine, and they should continue their roll this week. The Pack gets to 7-0 this week.

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Indianapolis: The Colts are done, and look for many of their veterans to start booking vacations for early January. Think about this: The Colts are usually resting their starters in Weeks 15, 16, and 17 to get themselves ready for the playoffs. This year, they are going to rest their starters in order to get Andrew Luck in the 2012 Draft. The Saints are going to win the NFC South, and they will make quick work of the Colts on Sunday Night.

Baltimore (-7) over JACKSONVILLE: How about ESPN getting the 1-5 Jags on Monday Night? Unless you are a Ravens fan or one of the 13 Jaguars fans in the world, there is no way anyone will stay up to watch this stinker on Monday Night. The Ravens roll on MNF.

MIAMI (-2) over Denver: Tebow Time has arrived, and it feels like the Broncos season is starting for real this week. These next 11 weeks are going to be fun and exciting no matter what happens with Tebow. I would love to see Tebow play great, and the Broncos win, but I have a feeling he will struggle as he gets acclimated. The Broncos at 1-4 are probably better than the Dolphins at 0-5, but the Fish are due for a win and they get it at the expense of the Broncos this week.

Final Score: Miami-20 Denver-10

Brandon Lloyd Traded to the Rams

The Broncos traded Brandon Lloyd to St. Louis Rams for a conditional draft pick in 2012. The pick is currently a 6th round pick, but if Lloyd catches 30 passes with the Rams, then that pick becomes a 5th round pick. It was a little surprising that Denver would make a move at the NFL trade deadline, but Lloyd wasn't going to figure into the future plans for the Broncos, so the Broncos moved him for a draft pick. Obviously, Lloyd is our most talented receiver, but the Broncos are in a rebuilding phase, and they want to see what they have with Eddie Royal, Eric Decker, DeMaryius Thomas, and Matt Willis. I don't get too worked up about receivers leaving. I wasn't even that upset when Brandon Marshall was traded. You need good receivers in the NFL, but it is better to have a group of solid receivers than one stud wideout. With Lloyd out, it will be interesting to see who Tim Tebow finds as his go to receiver.

Week 6 Picks!

The NFL hits the sixth week of the 2011 season. As Mike Francesa would say, "No season goes quicker than the NFL." Before we pick Week 6, there are three ways to look at making picks in the NFL on a week to week basis. The three things to keep in mind when picking games in the NFL are the following:

1) Last week doesn't always matter- If Team A wins convincingly over Team B, then that does not mean that Team A will blow out their next opponent. Yes, I know there are good teams that can always put together a string of blowout victories (Think Green Bay, New England, and Peyton Manning's Colts), but the NFL is simply a week to week league. Just because your team drops 38 points one week doesn't mean it is going to automatically do that next week. Don't be surprised when they struggle to reach 20 because that is just the way it is.

2) Homefield advantage is overrated- Back in the day teams seemed to thrive on being the home team. Since the advent of the salary cap, teams are just not as dominant at home as they once were. There aren't many truly dominant teams in the league anymore, so homefield is really balanced out. Also, the fact that so many teams have built new stadiums since the mid-90s has really changed the homefield landscape. Outside of Seattle, no new stadium really helps the team out on the playing field. The fans are farther away from the field, the actual stadiums are bigger and look like spaceships, and there are about 100 bars or lounges in these stadiums that distract the average fan from the game. It just isn't the same, but people who pick games still consider homefield as an huge advantage for the home squad. The truth is that it really isn't like that anymore.

3) Last year was last year and reputations don't always translate from year to year- There are some exceptions to this philosophy. If you have a great, elite quarterback then your team's passing game and offense will always be potent or dangerous. That only affects a handful of teams. Also, the Ravens and their defense comes to mind because they have had a great defense for like 10 years. When you have Ray Lewis in the middle and Ed Reed in the secondary, then your defense is going to be really good year after year. Those examples are the exceptions. The NFL is year to year. Just because you had a really good running game for a few years (The Jets) that doesn't mean that automatically your running game is still going to be off the charts. It doesn't work that way in the NFL. Players get older, other teams adjust, and your own team's personnel changes. People still bank on teams playing a certain way, but year to year aspects of your team progress or regress for a multitude of reasons and everyone fails to realize it until the season is over.

Now that we got that out of the way, here are the picks for Week 6......

Last Week's Record: 6-6-1

Overall Record: 34-38-5

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-14) over St. Louis: The Packers look pretty freakin' unstoppable right now. Can the Packers make it to Thanksgiving Day against the Lions undefeated? Here is their schedule after they wax the Rams at home: at Minnesota, BYE, at SD, home vs. Minnesota, home vs. Tampa Bay. They can definitely pull it off. The Chargers will be tough on the road and Tampa could be tricky, but there is a really good chance they could be 10-0 heading into Detroit. This week they take of business and bury the Rams at Lambeau.

PITTSBURGH (-12) over Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert gets roughed up by the Steelers defense in this one. The Jags are going to be playing out the string very shortly for a lame duck coach in Jack Del Rio. Everyone buried the Steelers a little too early. Don't ever doubt Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. They are just getting started. The Stillers win big at home.

WASHINGTON (+2) over Philadelphia: This is the game of the day for me. This game is essentially a playoff game for the Eagles. Everyone is picking the Eagles in the classic "Backs against the Wall" game, but I am going to go against the grain. The Redskins are good, and Rex Grossman can lead this team to the playoffs. This game just seems like one of those games were Mike Shanahan has that look in his eye. Every play call works, and he is just on call on every move he makes in the game. I've seen that look before and it is deadly. The Skins take down the Eagles and put Andy Reid firmly on the hot seat.

DETROIT (-4) over San Francisco: Can the Lions make it to Thanksgiving against the Packers undefeated? Here is their schedule after this week: home vs. Atlanta, at Denver, Bye, at Chicago, home vs. Carolina. There looks like too many pitfalls in there for them, but that Thanksgiving Day game at home versus the Packers will be electric. Expect the Lions to win this week at home to go 6-0 over the upstart 49ers.

Carolina (+4) over ATLANTA: Cam Newton and the Panthers cover. Plain and simple that's it. The Falcons look lost at 2-3, and last week's home loss to the Packers after getting an early lead was a killer. The Panthers might lose late, but they keep it close.

CINCY (-7) over Indy: What a game this should be. The Bengals are sitting at 3-2 with a legitimate chance to go 4-2. The Colts are done. They had their chances last week and blew a big lead at home to the hapless Chiefs. Now, they have to go on the road against Andy Dalton and the suddenly feisty Bengals. I don't think this one is going to go their way. The 2011 Bengals remind me of the 2010 Buccaneers. Cincy gets to 4-2 convincingly.

Buffalo (+3) over NY GIANTS: The Bills are a legitimate playoff contender. I know their defense is suspect in defending the pass, but I am buying the Bills this year. They might not make the playoffs, but I could see them being a surprise 9-7 team and right on the fringe. Plus, it will reinvigorate the fanbase and make it feels like a playoff year. The Giants are a team to stay away from betting wise. You never know what you are going to get week to week. I'm staying away from them this week too. Bills win it on a field goal 22-20.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Houston: Andre Johnson and Mario Williams are both out for the Texans. I was contemplating taking Houston for the cheap backdoor cover, but I decided to take the Ravens at home. It looks like the Ravens are going to be in this thing for the long haul. I was wrong about the Ravens this year. They are looking like the real deal and a two seed in the AFC.

OAKLAND (-6) over Cleveland: The Raiders got an emotional win after the death of Al Davis last week. I respect Al Davis' place in the annals of pro football, but to me he was the villain and the antagonist of the Broncos and the NFL. Also, Hue Jackson's emotional breakdown after the win over Houston was a bit much. I really couldn't take too much of Jackson's sobbing and crying on the sideline or in the locker room. I'm sorry but Jackson has only been the Raiders head coach for five games! He was the offensive coordinator for last season. It is not like he is John Madden or Tom Flores. He shouldn't even have been the head coach this season after Tom Cable led them to an 8-8 record. Give me a break Hue! Anyway, the Browns get exposed in the Black Hole this Sunday as the Raiders get to 4-2.

Dallas (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: This is just one of those "Hunch Games." I think the Pats will win, but look for this one to be closer than people expect. I think the Cowboys give a great a effort and make this game close in what will be one of the highest rated games of the year.

TAMPA BAY (+5) over New Orleans: The Buccaneers take a stand at home, and turn back the Saints. Look for Josh Freeman to step up and get out of his funk, and pull the upset at home against the Saints. The Saints are going to win the NFC South, but they will stub their toe here.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: The Vikings stink. It is a matter of time before Donovan McNabb gets yanked. The Bears and especially Jay Cutler played gutty on Monday Night in the loss at Detroit. They do enough to get the win at home on Sunday Night.

NY JETS (-7) over Miami: The Jets are reeling after losing three in a row. Isn't it amazing how quiet the Jet fan is right now? It is very quiet as the Jets got their tails whipped the last three weeks. It is pretty obvious the Jets are not the same team they were the last two years. They say they want to get back to ground and pound, but they simply don't have the makeup on the offensive line to really do that anymore. Their defense is weak in the front seven, and they never addressed their pass rush, so did they not realize they were going to have problems on the defensive side. Throw in a little mutiny with the receivers and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and you have a nice, big shit show. With all that said, look for the Jets to waffle the Dolphins at home on Monday Night. The Fish are a bigger mess with Matt Moore at quarterback, Brandon Marshall wanting to fight people in the middle of the game, and a lame-duck coach.

Tebow Officially Named Starter

John Fox delivered the news to the media on Tuesday: Tim Tebow will now become the Denver Broncos starting quarterback. Tebow's first start will come on Sunday October 23rd at Miami. The Broncos have a bye this week. There was no turning back from Tebow after Fox inserted him in the second half of Sunday's loss to the Chargers, but Fox made it official on Tuesday. Whatever you think about Tebow, one thing is that the guy brings excitement and intrigue. Tebow's promotion drew headlines all over blogs, radio, and television-including ESPN and the NFL Network. As a Broncos fan, this is all I wanted. I just wanted to see Tebow get his shot. There are many critics of him and his ability to be an NFL quarterback, but it will be fun to see how he does in proving these critics wrong. If analyzing QBs was so easy, then there wouldn't be so many mistakes made in the draft and in the evaluating of quarterbacks throughout the NFL. Let's just watch Tebow play for an extended time before anyone labels him a bust or a top player. The next 11 games are going to be fun to watch. Excitement is back in the air if you are a Broncos fan. This move makes total sense, and who knows what is going to happen the next few months. All that matters right now is Tebow Time is here, and a new era in Broncos football has arrived.

Tebow's Rally Falls Short in Loss to San Diego

We have been waiting all year for this moment. At halftime of Sunday's game versus the Chargers, the Broncos trailed 23-10 at home. John Fox inserted Tim Tebow for the ineffective Kyle Orton. Tebow's first three drives all ended in punts, but in the fourth quarter he got the Broncos moving. Tebow scored on a 12 yard touchdown run to cut the lead to 26-18. After getting a turnover on a sack, Tebow hit Knowshon Moreno on a beautiful screen pass for a 28 yard touchdown. The Broncos two point conversion failed, but they cut the lead to 26-24. The Chargers were able to move the ball enough and kill enough time to get a key field goal to make it 29-24. Tebow had one final shot, and he certainly made it interesting. He hit Brandon Lloyd on a great throw and catch for a 20 yard play. Tebow then found Daniel Fells for 31 yards to the Chargers 30. With one second left, Tebow and the Broncos had one shot left to throw one in the endzone. Tebow scrambled around, juked around, and kept the play alive long enough to get off a dart into the endzone. Unfortunately, the pass was incomplete and the game was over. Denver fell to 1-4, but the story of the game was Tebow. John Fox finally gave us what we wanted and that was Tebow. Orton was terrible in the first half, 6-13 34 yards and one interception, and the mood of the stadium was down and out. Tebow sparked the team and at least gave Denver a chance to win the game at the end. More importantly, he sparked the fans and created some excitement again in the Mile High city. This is all we wanted as Bronco fans. We know this team is not going anywhere, but we just want to find out what Tebow can provide. Orton has proven that he is not the guy for the Broncos, and now is the time to turn it over to Tebow. Fox said he is going to make an official decision on Tuesday, but you have to think that Fox will name Tebow the starter. After going with Tebow in the second half, you have to stick with him now. There are 11 games left, and no one really knows how this Tebow thing is going to work out, but all I know is that it will be a fun ride with #15 behind center. Hold on tight, this could be a wild ride in Denver. Tebow Time has arrived. As Tebow tweeted after the lockout ended, "Game On."

Here are my other thoughts and observations from Sunday's game vs. the Chargers...

1) Willis McGahee had another 100 yard game. If he can stay healthy, then McGahee could get 1,000 yards and be a nice contributing factor for this team.

2) The 42 yard touchdown pass from Phillip Rivers to Malcolm Floyd with 13 seconds left in the half was a backbreaker. It made it 23-10, and really gave the Chargers a nice cushion. You can't give up a touchdown in that spot. Bad defense on that play.

3) The problem with Kyle Orton is that on third and long, he always dumps it off or throws short passes. He doesn't scare anyone or have the ability to make a big throw in those situations. His first half on Sunday was no exception.

4) The Broncos got beat up in the run game yesterday. Ryan Matthews had over 100 yards, and this was the first game since Week 1 where Denver's run defense really struggled.

5) The other big play was when the Chargers got the ball back with 3:19 to play and up 26-18. Two straight incompletions led to a key 3rd and 10. Rivers hit Floyd with a 38 yard completion and big first down.

6) The next key moment on that drive was after Denver stopped Jacob Hester for a three yard run to set up a 3rd and 5 with over two minutes to go at their own 37. If they get off the field on third down, then the Chargers are going to have to attempt a long field goal, and the Broncos would be getting the ball back with at least two minutes to go. Well, D.J. Williams for a roughness penalty and that killed the sequence and allowed the Chargers to kill more time and eat more clock. Just an awful penalty for Williams to take.

7) The Broncos are now 1-4 and they are off next week with a bye. The following Sunday they are back in action as they take on the Miami Dolphins in Miami. Will Tebow be starting? Hopefully, the answer will be yes.

Week 5 Picks!

As we head into Week 5 in the 2011 NFL season, one of most popular storylines involves a player who is not even in the NFL. That player is Stanford's Andrew Luck. He is considered the best QB prospect to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning in 1998. Forget about all of the top QB prospects in the past few years because Luck is considered the best prospect since Manning hands down. Everything I have read has projected that Luck is a sure fire bet to be the next franchise guy at quarterback in the NFL. There has been a growing sentiment that if your team loses this year, then your franchise will hit the jackpot and pick Luck number one overall. The "Suck for Luck" campaign has been an inside joke amongst fanbases and fans. With 1/4 of the season gone, here are the teams that are in the lead for Andrew Luck:

1-Miami (0-4)

2-Indianapolis (0-4)

3-Minnesota (0-4)

4-St. Louis (0-4)

5-Kansas City (1-3)

6-Denver (1-3)

7-Jacksonville (1-3)

8-Carolina (1-3)

9-Arizona (1-3)

10-Seattle (1-3)

11-Philly (1-3)

Out of this group, it is hard to see Philly sucking that bad and getting the number one overall pick, so they are out. The Panthers have Cam Newton, and I don't think they are going to be drafting a QB with another first pick, so Carolina is out. Jacksonville just took Blaine Gabbert in the first round last year, so it might make them balk and grabbing Luck. The same goes for Minnesota after they picked Christian Ponder last year at number 12 overall. The Vikings probably would take Luck, but you could make a case against it. The Rams have Sam Bradford and many other holes on their team, so Luck won't be going there. That leaves six teams (Miami, Indy, KC, Denver, Arizona, and Seattle) left to possibly take Luck if they get the number one pick. Arizona might not take Luck because of the deal that they made to get Kevin Kolb this year, but if Kolb really bombs then all bets are off. If would be interesting if the Colts took Luck because Peyton Manning might be ready to go next year. Do you just give up on Peyton? Don't you think you can get at least another four years out of him? That leaves Miami, KC, Denver and Seattle. One of those four might be the winners of the Luck Sweepstakes. One team will hit the jackpot, and those other three teams may just be out of "luck" (Sorry, I couldn't resist the cheap pun joke.) Onto the the picks for Week 5........

Last Week's Record: 6-10

Overall Record: 28-32-4

(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

INDY (-2) over Kansas City: The Colts lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers two weeks ago, and they played tough but lost by seven at Tampa Bay last week. They are 0-4, but they have played hard the last two games. Teams that are winless usually played hard for a few weeks and then break through with their first win. This looks like the perfect time for the Colts to get their first win of 2011. By the way, did anyone see the Todd Haley-Matt Cassel spat from last week's game? Haley is creating a really crappy environment in Kansas City, and it looks like his seat will just get hotter every week.

MINNESOTA (-2) over Arizona: The Vikings finally get their first win of the season, but the Vikings are not that terrible. They get the job done this week at home. How about my pick of the Cardinals winning the NFC West? Kevin Kolb has looked skittish at times, and I just can't trust him or the Cards at this point.

Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO: The Eagles blew at 23-3 lead at home to the Niners last week. They are in disarray, but this game just smells like a game that the Eagles just come out and dominate. Michael Vick goes off, and Philly takes out their frustration on the Bills.

Oakland (+5) over HOUSTON: The Texans should do enough to win this game, but the Raiders could give them some trouble. It will be interesting to see how Houston's offensive line matches up against the Raiders. This is a tough game to call, and this spread just stinks. This would be a game to stay away from, but I'll have to take the Raiders and the points.

CAROLINA (+6) over New Orleans: A divisional game and the favorite is on the road. This just smells like the upset of the week. Cam Newton gets it done this week at home against the Saints. The Panthers have been feisty this season, and Newton is quickly becoming a guy that you want to watch and see highlights of. The Saints are a good team and will be fine, but this will not be their week.

JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Cincy: The Jags have lost three in a row, and Jack Del Rio finds himself on the hotseat. It seems like yesterday that the Jags were in the divisional playoffs and giving the 16-0 Patriots fits in 2007. Now, the Jags are breaking in rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. The Jags are always dangerous at home, and the Bengals are the perfect fodder for the Jags this week.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee: The Steelers are an unimpressive 2-2 to start the season. A lot of people are bailing on them, but I am not falling for it. I know that their offensive line is very suspect, but they still have Big Ben, and that is enough for me. Yes, I know that the Titans are pretty good, but this week the Steelers take care of business at home. This looks like a 20-16 type of game on Sunday.

Seattle (+10) over NEW YORK GIANTS: I hate these big spreads. The only reason why I am taking the Seahawks is because the G-Men are banged up again going into Sunday's game. Brandon Jacobs and Justin Tuck are probably out of Sunday's game. The Giants will win this game, but look for the Seahawks to keep it closer than expected.

Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Bucs are sitting at 3-1 and the Niners are at 3-1. This should be a very interesting game, and one of these teams will be 4-1 and in a really good spot. I'll take the Bucs, but I am not too confident on this pick.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: This line is way too high, and it has been like that all week. I'm pretty sure that the Pats will somehow win this game, but there is no reason to not think that this game will be close. I could just imagine what type of video Bill Belichick will show to motivate his players for this game. The Pats should come out fired up, and it is gut check time for the Jets. This game lost a little when the Jets got buried the last two weeks at Oakland and at Baltimore. The Jets will play hard and play well, but the Pats will do enough to get the job done.

ATLANTA (+6) over Green Bay: The Falcons are a weak 2-2. They don't look like the same team that won 13 games last season. This could be the week that turns the Falcons season around. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers look really unstoppable, and they are rolling at 4-0. The only chance the Falcons have is that this game is at the Georgia Dome. I could see the Packers winning easily, but I will roll the dice with the underdog Falcons at home.

DETROIT (-5) over Chicago: This is the first Monday Night Football game in Detroit in 10 years. The Lions come in at 4-0 after two crazy wins at Minnesota (trailed 20-0) and at Dallas (trailed 27-7). The atmosphere at Ford Field should be crazy. These are the types of games that crowds could take over. Look for a lot of false starts by the Bears. The timing is just right for the Lions, and they take advantage of the atmosphere and win by a touchdown at least.

DENVER (+4) over San Diego: I have liked the Broncos all week, and I am sticking with them. I know the Chargers and Philip Rivers own Denver since 2006, but San Diego hasn't really impressed in their 3-1 start. SD has wins over Minnesota, Kansas City, and Miami. Those teams have a combined record of 1-11. Throw in the fact that Antonio Gates is out, and the Chargers offense just doesn't look the same without him. The Broncos come in at 1-3 after a beating at the hands of the Packers. The Broncos get Champ Bailey back to help their secondary, and I would expect the Broncos to play their best game of the year. The Broncos' backs are against the wall, and no one is picking them this week. The Broncos rise up and take on the challenge and upset the Chargers at home.

Final Score: Denver:23 San Diego:21

Week 5 Picks!

Broncos Drop to 1-3 After Thumping in Lambeau

In 1998, the Broncos were on their way to a 14-2 record and their second straight Super Bowl title. In Week 2, the Broncos hosted the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys were the team of the 90s and were only a few years removed from their third Super Bowl in four years. By 1998, it looked as if the Cowboys were going to be back and make a run to the NFC Championship. Denver came out and absolutely destroyed the Cowboys 42-23. This game was highlighted by Terrell Davis' back-to-back touchdowns gallops of 63 and 59 yards. As the game was winding down, you could see Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, and Deion Sanders looking across at the Broncos and realizing that they were simply no match for this Denver team, and that they were not even close to being were the Broncos were. It was the classic example of a benchmark game. The Broncos were the NFL's elite at that time, and the Cowboys realized that they were not close at all to being at that level again. Denver's loss on Sunday at Green Bay reminded me of that 1998 game in some regard. Obviously, the 2011 Broncos are not as talented as the 1998 Cowboys, but the Broncos went up against the best team in the NFL, and realized they were simply no match for them. The Broncos want to eventually become what the Packers currently are, but yesterday's 49-23 game at Lambeau showed how far the two organizations are. One is the epitome of drafting well and developing your own talent, and the other one was a team that was hoping that one day in the future they can have the same type of system established. Hopefully, there will be brighter days in the future for the Broncos, but the Packers seemed to remind them they those bright days might take a little longer to get to then we all would like.

Here are my thoughts and observations on the game.......

1) You can't pin this game on Kyle Orton. Unfortunately, he began looking like an All-Pro after the Broncos trailed 21-3, but you can't kill him for this game. Yes, his pick-six to Charles Woodson was a big play and made it 14-3, but this game wasn't all Orton's fault. One thing is for sure though: Aaron Rodgers is a franchise QB and Kyle Orton is not. It is just that simple.

2) It seems like John Fox just threw the fans a bone and use Tim Tebow on one running play for -1 yard. It seemed like Fox just did it to appease the fans, and when it didn't work, then he just scrapped it. How on Earth the Broncos can't figure out a way to get this guy some touches is beyond me? It is almost like they are trying to really be spiteful about it.

3) Willis McGahee looks like our best runner. He had 101 yards on 15 carries, and he looks like our best option as an inside runner. Knowshon Moreno looks like he is going to be nothing more then a third down back.

4) Eric Decker continues to be a pleasant surprise with two touchdown catches in the second quarter. Decker is the real deal, and one of the pieces on offense this team can build on.

5) There is little a defense can do when you are facing Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense. Rodgers and his weapons are so good, that it is virtually impossible for a defense like Denver's to slow him down. Forget about scheme, coverage, and the fact that the Broncos were without Champ Bailey, there was nothing they could've done differently to matchup with the Pack.

6) Von Miller continues to impress, and he recorded two more sacks yesterday. He is still solid in the run game, and he continues to play at a high level. He is another young piece that we can build on, and it will be fun to watch him continue to develop as the year goes on.

7) At 14-3, the Packers went for a surprise onside kick and got it, and they converted that possession into an Aaron Rodgers touchdown run to make it 21-3. After Denver came back to make it 21-17, but Rodgers answered with a touchdown pass before the half, and then he ran for another one right after the half, and the next you know it is 35-17, and that was pretty much the ballgame.

8) CBS' Phil Simms made some very good points regarding the Broncos and their overall organization. On the subject of Tim Tebow, Simms said that as a first round pick he needs to eventually get a chance to start. No matter what Kyle Orton does, if he doesn't win then at some moment Tebow needs to be given a chance. On the subject of the Broncos as a whole, he mentioned that he feels John Fox will turn it around, but it will take some time. He also mentioned that the Broncos are not as bad as the score indicated, but rather the Packers are just that good for not only the Broncos but the NFL as a whole.

9) The Broncos fall to 1-3 and return home to take on the San Diego Chargers, who are sitting at 3-1. My only request is that if the Broncos lose this game and fall to 1-4, then they have to address the QB situation and make a switch for the following game after the bye week. I know this probably won't happen, but you can't help but wish for it.