Week 5 Picks!

As we head into Week 5 in the 2011 NFL season, one of most popular storylines involves a player who is not even in the NFL. That player is Stanford's Andrew Luck. He is considered the best QB prospect to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning in 1998. Forget about all of the top QB prospects in the past few years because Luck is considered the best prospect since Manning hands down. Everything I have read has projected that Luck is a sure fire bet to be the next franchise guy at quarterback in the NFL. There has been a growing sentiment that if your team loses this year, then your franchise will hit the jackpot and pick Luck number one overall. The "Suck for Luck" campaign has been an inside joke amongst fanbases and fans. With 1/4 of the season gone, here are the teams that are in the lead for Andrew Luck:

1-Miami (0-4)

2-Indianapolis (0-4)

3-Minnesota (0-4)

4-St. Louis (0-4)

5-Kansas City (1-3)

6-Denver (1-3)

7-Jacksonville (1-3)

8-Carolina (1-3)

9-Arizona (1-3)

10-Seattle (1-3)

11-Philly (1-3)

Out of this group, it is hard to see Philly sucking that bad and getting the number one overall pick, so they are out. The Panthers have Cam Newton, and I don't think they are going to be drafting a QB with another first pick, so Carolina is out. Jacksonville just took Blaine Gabbert in the first round last year, so it might make them balk and grabbing Luck. The same goes for Minnesota after they picked Christian Ponder last year at number 12 overall. The Vikings probably would take Luck, but you could make a case against it. The Rams have Sam Bradford and many other holes on their team, so Luck won't be going there. That leaves six teams (Miami, Indy, KC, Denver, Arizona, and Seattle) left to possibly take Luck if they get the number one pick. Arizona might not take Luck because of the deal that they made to get Kevin Kolb this year, but if Kolb really bombs then all bets are off. If would be interesting if the Colts took Luck because Peyton Manning might be ready to go next year. Do you just give up on Peyton? Don't you think you can get at least another four years out of him? That leaves Miami, KC, Denver and Seattle. One of those four might be the winners of the Luck Sweepstakes. One team will hit the jackpot, and those other three teams may just be out of "luck" (Sorry, I couldn't resist the cheap pun joke.) Onto the the picks for Week 5........

Last Week's Record: 6-10

Overall Record: 28-32-4

(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

INDY (-2) over Kansas City: The Colts lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers two weeks ago, and they played tough but lost by seven at Tampa Bay last week. They are 0-4, but they have played hard the last two games. Teams that are winless usually played hard for a few weeks and then break through with their first win. This looks like the perfect time for the Colts to get their first win of 2011. By the way, did anyone see the Todd Haley-Matt Cassel spat from last week's game? Haley is creating a really crappy environment in Kansas City, and it looks like his seat will just get hotter every week.

MINNESOTA (-2) over Arizona: The Vikings finally get their first win of the season, but the Vikings are not that terrible. They get the job done this week at home. How about my pick of the Cardinals winning the NFC West? Kevin Kolb has looked skittish at times, and I just can't trust him or the Cards at this point.

Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO: The Eagles blew at 23-3 lead at home to the Niners last week. They are in disarray, but this game just smells like a game that the Eagles just come out and dominate. Michael Vick goes off, and Philly takes out their frustration on the Bills.

Oakland (+5) over HOUSTON: The Texans should do enough to win this game, but the Raiders could give them some trouble. It will be interesting to see how Houston's offensive line matches up against the Raiders. This is a tough game to call, and this spread just stinks. This would be a game to stay away from, but I'll have to take the Raiders and the points.

CAROLINA (+6) over New Orleans: A divisional game and the favorite is on the road. This just smells like the upset of the week. Cam Newton gets it done this week at home against the Saints. The Panthers have been feisty this season, and Newton is quickly becoming a guy that you want to watch and see highlights of. The Saints are a good team and will be fine, but this will not be their week.

JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Cincy: The Jags have lost three in a row, and Jack Del Rio finds himself on the hotseat. It seems like yesterday that the Jags were in the divisional playoffs and giving the 16-0 Patriots fits in 2007. Now, the Jags are breaking in rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. The Jags are always dangerous at home, and the Bengals are the perfect fodder for the Jags this week.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Tennessee: The Steelers are an unimpressive 2-2 to start the season. A lot of people are bailing on them, but I am not falling for it. I know that their offensive line is very suspect, but they still have Big Ben, and that is enough for me. Yes, I know that the Titans are pretty good, but this week the Steelers take care of business at home. This looks like a 20-16 type of game on Sunday.

Seattle (+10) over NEW YORK GIANTS: I hate these big spreads. The only reason why I am taking the Seahawks is because the G-Men are banged up again going into Sunday's game. Brandon Jacobs and Justin Tuck are probably out of Sunday's game. The Giants will win this game, but look for the Seahawks to keep it closer than expected.

Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Bucs are sitting at 3-1 and the Niners are at 3-1. This should be a very interesting game, and one of these teams will be 4-1 and in a really good spot. I'll take the Bucs, but I am not too confident on this pick.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: This line is way too high, and it has been like that all week. I'm pretty sure that the Pats will somehow win this game, but there is no reason to not think that this game will be close. I could just imagine what type of video Bill Belichick will show to motivate his players for this game. The Pats should come out fired up, and it is gut check time for the Jets. This game lost a little when the Jets got buried the last two weeks at Oakland and at Baltimore. The Jets will play hard and play well, but the Pats will do enough to get the job done.

ATLANTA (+6) over Green Bay: The Falcons are a weak 2-2. They don't look like the same team that won 13 games last season. This could be the week that turns the Falcons season around. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers look really unstoppable, and they are rolling at 4-0. The only chance the Falcons have is that this game is at the Georgia Dome. I could see the Packers winning easily, but I will roll the dice with the underdog Falcons at home.

DETROIT (-5) over Chicago: This is the first Monday Night Football game in Detroit in 10 years. The Lions come in at 4-0 after two crazy wins at Minnesota (trailed 20-0) and at Dallas (trailed 27-7). The atmosphere at Ford Field should be crazy. These are the types of games that crowds could take over. Look for a lot of false starts by the Bears. The timing is just right for the Lions, and they take advantage of the atmosphere and win by a touchdown at least.

DENVER (+4) over San Diego: I have liked the Broncos all week, and I am sticking with them. I know the Chargers and Philip Rivers own Denver since 2006, but San Diego hasn't really impressed in their 3-1 start. SD has wins over Minnesota, Kansas City, and Miami. Those teams have a combined record of 1-11. Throw in the fact that Antonio Gates is out, and the Chargers offense just doesn't look the same without him. The Broncos come in at 1-3 after a beating at the hands of the Packers. The Broncos get Champ Bailey back to help their secondary, and I would expect the Broncos to play their best game of the year. The Broncos' backs are against the wall, and no one is picking them this week. The Broncos rise up and take on the challenge and upset the Chargers at home.

Final Score: Denver:23 San Diego:21